Metrics Showed Where Adam Gase Failed To Live Up To Cutting-Edge Offense Hype

[14 in Green]

53 minutes ago, jetsons said:

eye test... IT"S VERY CLEAR THAT Sam IS ABOVE AVERAGE & with proper coaching he can even Great to Elite.

"But his stats..." oops I forgot, you like to go eye test

45 minutes ago, jetsons said:

The NFL stats for the YEAR are what they are... They Don't cherry pick.

No, wait. Now you go stats. Because they don't cherry pick.

39 minutes ago, jetsons said:

Wrong... gase IS on a 1 Yr trial... Fail & He's Gone.

Ok, but are we doing eye test again, or are we going stats this time?

[SAR I]

45 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

Same as year b4...

after a lousy start during which Jets were eliminated from playoff contention, Sam played better at the end of the year...

Two bad rosters. Two different coaches. Two different systems.  Two different injuries.

The fact that Sam could be elite for half a season twice is a good sign. 

He’s 22. He’s not ready to carry a team on his back for 16 games. But, damn he looks promising.  I’m so happy. 

SAR I

[LSJF]

20 minutes ago, 14 in Green said:

I was wondering how you have a high post count..... Sam is da man....Gase gets this year... JD gets a chance to build a team.... Change my mind... emoticon man, lol...

[Losmeister]

3 minutes ago, SAR I said:

Two bad rosters. Two different coaches. Two different systems.  Two different injuries.

The fact that Sam could be elite for half a season twice is a good sign. 

He’s 22. He’s not ready to carry a team on his back for 16 games. But, damn he looks promising.  I’m so happy. 

SAR I

hope so, man, hope so.

[SAR I]

45 minutes ago, jetsons said:

Wrong... gase IS on a 1 Yr trial... Fail & He's Gone.

Unless you own the New York Jets, no, he’s not. 

There are like 20 people that think Gase did a bad job this season. Time to be quiet now. You can cry about the Mets soon enough. Give the good Jets fans a break. Thanks.  

SAR I

[SAR I]

36 minutes ago, CTM said:

Glue sniffer 

Jets hater. 

SAR I

[SAR I]

36 minutes ago, jbone said:

Which metrics are making you smart?

6 and 2. 

Powerful data. 

SAR I

[14 in Green]

11 minutes ago, LSJF said:

I was wondering how you have a high post count..... Sam is da man....Gase gets this year... JD gets a chance to build a team.... Change my mind... emoticon man, lol...

No need. I agree with everything you said, except for Sam. I think the jury is still out on him, but I don't think I can change your mind about him.

BTW I agree with @SAR I Gase doesn't just get this year. He deserves an extension for the job he did.

Feel better?

[jbone]

6 minutes ago, SAR I said:

6 and 2. 

Powerful data. 

SAR I

Good specifics on Sam. A true virtuoso.

[jetsons]

57 minutes ago, 14 in Green said:

Didn't we sing that song last offseason?

still waiting... gase gets a mulligan due to Sams illness... but if Sam is healthy in 2020 then it's All on gase.

[14 in Green]

4 minutes ago, jetsons said:

still waiting... gase gets a mulligan due to Sams illness... but if Sam is healthy in 2020 then it's All on gase.

Nothing is on Sam, huh?

You really think he's a proven commodity?

[jetsons]

1 hour ago, 14 in Green said:

"But his stats..." oops I forgot, you like to go eye test

No, wait. Now you go stats. Because they don't cherry pick.

Ok, but are we doing eye test again, or are we going stats this time?

If you think Sam is Not a good QB & gase "deserves" an extension due to the "stellar" job he did last yr ( "achieving" a scoring offense ranked 31 out of 32 teams - 2nd to Last & a Total offense ranked 32 out 32 - Dead Last)... then I think your opinion speaks Volumes about your judgement.

[jetsons]

15 minutes ago, 14 in Green said:

Nothing is on Sam, huh?

You really think he's a proven commodity?

I didn't say ":nothing" is on Sam... but he's still young (22) & he's Only been a QB for 4 yrs...  2 in College & 2 in the NFL.... gase did ZERO with & for him last season... if he does the same this season gase is GONE.

gase has done Zero for yrs now... johnson IS an Idiot for hiring him... but he's here & I wish him the best in 2020 & beyond.... if he's still the Jets HC.

[CTM]

55 minutes ago, SAR I said:

Jets hater. 

SAR I

swing and miss

[Long Island Leprechaun]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

+1 for knowing who he was, tbqh.

People have said I resemble him.  Hence the use.  And no, for clarity, I am not a confederate or sympathizer.  

At least it wasn't Nathan Bedford Forrest.  

I spent about five or six years on a civil war forum. Informative if humbling experience. 

[Jetty]

The guy isnt going any where, possibly for another 2 seasons.  Just accept it and hope for a better season next year.
 

[LSJF]

1 hour ago, 14 in Green said:

No need. I agree with everything you said, except for Sam. I think the jury is still out on him, but I don't think I can change your mind about him.

BTW I agree with @SAR I Gase doesn't just get this year. He deserves an extension for the job he did.

Feel better?

The worry that I have for Sam is that he can stay healthy for 16 games, he hasn’t yet..he’s lucky he didn’t get killed like Sieman(spelling?) behind this OL...

As far as feeling better, aside from some nasty lactose intolerance tonight, yeh... Lol.... All good bro...

[jvill 51]

9 hours ago, rangerous said:

you can't run play action if you can't sell the run.  with bell at 3.2 ypc it's hard to see why anyone would be afraid of the jet run game.  so much of what this guy says lands right at the feet of oline play.

Success running the ball has pretty much zero correlation with the effectiveness of play action passing.

 

5 hours ago, Losmeister said:

are we crowing anbout 2 yards per PA pass attempt?

I don’t think anyone’s crowing about it, but an extra two yards per pass attempt is significant, yes. In fact that’s just about the difference between league average and the league leader in yards per attempt. Gase should absolutely be utilizing PA as much as possible, as should every other team, until and unless there are diminishing returns.

[Fantasy Island]

10 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

That's a positive.

So the diminishing success rate of running on 2nd and long coinciding with the team going 6-2 over the final 8 games and ranking 16th in points scored means what?  That stats are more important that W's?

I get the sense this guy would write something like....

Listen, I don't know if Gase is good, horrible or somewhere in between.  There was a lot of "noise in the data" as they say.  Mono, a poor roster (even before injuries), a horrible OLine, and then injuries make the evaluation complicated.  It's even more complicated by the fact the Jets had one of the NFL's toughest schedules to start the year and one of the easiest to finish the year.  In that regard they largely performed as expected.  (Maybe if they beat Cincy but had lost to Dallas people would say the Jets performed almost exactly as you thought they would, and that not blowing that missed-kick-ridden Week 1 game to Buffalo puts them at 8-8 for the year)

On the negative side we still have a team lead by Adam Gase that ranks last or almost last in most of the important statistical categories on offense.  On the positive side we can't foresee the Jets having a roster any worse than last year, Darnold gets another season in the same offensive system for the first time in 4 years (USC, Jeremy Bates, Adam Gase...), and the Jets finished the year on a positive trajectory finishing just inside the top half of the NFL in points per game scored over their final 8.  Darnold is still a pup...the dude is younger than Joe Burrow for crying out loud.  He's only going to get better.

We can all have hunches, leanings, opinions about how Gase, Darnold and company will perform in Year 2 but nobody can really speak with any true conviction about it yet.  It's simply a guess or belief.

What the ****?

 

Gase sucks.

[Sonny Werblin]

Statistical analysis says running on 2d and long when the D is in nickle, dime, and or has less than 7 in the box is a good call. Without knowing the D personnel/formation on each play it is impossible to evaluate the calls. 
 

That said, it was pretty apparent most of the season that down and distance didn’t matter in the run game because the O Line rarely opened up running lanes. However, you can’t abandon the run and pass only and it seems wise to call runs when the D formation is not designed to stop the run i.e. give your overmatched O line the opportunity to succeed.

I’ll hold off on my evaluation of Gase until Joe D gives the team an above average O line. 

[BurnleyJet]

Do we need metrics, to tell us that Gase sucks?

[SAR I]

3 hours ago, Sonny Werblin said:

Statistical analysis says running on 2d and long when the D is in nickle, dime, and or has less than 7 in the box is a good call. Without knowing the D personnel/formation on each play it is impossible to evaluate the calls. 
 

That said, it was pretty apparent most of the season that down and distance didn’t matter in the run game because the O Line rarely opened up running lanes. However, you can’t abandon the run and pass only and it seems wise to call runs when the D formation is not designed to stop the run i.e. give your overmatched O line the opportunity to succeed.

I’ll hold off on my evaluation of Gase until Joe D gives the team an above average O line. 

Exactly.

Le'veon gets zero blame and he a) has a running style not suited to a poor OL and b) rarely got a big burst through a hole even after his stutter stepping.

I'm more worried that Bell is done than I am that Gase doesn't know how to make a hole in the A gap.

SAR I

[SAR I]

24 minutes ago, BurnleyJet said:

Do we need metrics, to tell us that Gase sucks?

He started 1-7 due to injuries and finished 6-2 with even more injuries piling up every week. 

There's your metric.

SAR I

[Philc1]

14 hours ago, SAR I said:

6 and 2. 

Powerful data. 

SAR I

With easiest second half schedule by far

[Philc1]

2 hours ago, SAR I said:

He started 1-7 due to injuries and finished 6-2 with even more injuries piling up every week. 

There's your metric.

SAR I

31 other nfl teams didn’t have injuries.  They also didn’t win games with backup QBs no one ever heard of

[Losmeister]

13 hours ago, jvill 51 said:

Success running the ball has pretty much zero correlation with the effectiveness of play action passing.

 

I don’t think anyone’s crowing about it, but an extra two yards per pass attempt is significant, yes. In fact that’s just about the difference between league average and the league leader in yards per attempt. Gase should absolutely be utilizing PA as much as possible, as should every other team, until and unless there are diminishing returns.

it would be ifthe average was over ALL PASSING attempts.

they onpy put 6 in th ebox, but the PA will still work, that doesnt sound correct....   

[SAR I]

3 hours ago, Philc1 said:

With easiest second half schedule by far

Incorrect.  And we put a worse roster on the field in all 8 of those games than our opponents and won 6 of them.  Impressive.

SAR I

[jvill 51]

2 hours ago, Losmeister said:

it would be ifthe average was over ALL PASSING attempts.

I think you’re missing the point I was trying to make. It’s not that I’m saying that Darnold is better at PA than other QBs, but that PA passing in general is pretty much proven to be more effficient than straight drop back passing, and at a statistically significant clip. If a team averaged 4 yards per carry on inside handoffs and 5 yards per carry running off tackle, you’d rightfully be wondering why they don’t run off tackle more, at least until it gets to the point where the discrepancy started equalling out. Same thing with play action passing. The effect of those extra two yards make a world of difference when it means you’re picking up extra first downs, staying on the field longer, and keeping yourself out of third and long. Smart playcallers will and should take every advantage they can get.
 

2 hours ago, Losmeister said:

they onpy put 6 in th ebox, but the PA will still work, that doesnt sound correct....   

Plenty of places have looked at the data. How good your running game is, how often and/or well you’ve run during the current game, etc. has next to no effect on the success of play action passing. It’s a free advantage to the offense.

[SAR I]

3 hours ago, Philc1 said:

31 other nfl teams didn’t have injuries.  They also didn’t win games with backup QBs no one ever heard of

31 other NFL teams didn't have the amount of players on IR and cluster injuries like the Jets did.  Worst in team history.

Trevor Simean played 1 quarter of football.  Luke Falk is out of the NFL, probably won't make the XFL.

Please tell us you're not going to carry on with this ridiculous narrative all offseason.

SAR I

[Losmeister]

 

[Philc1]

On 1/15/2020 at 4:07 PM, SAR I said:

Incorrect.  And we put a worse roster on the field in all 8 of those games than our opponents and won 6 of them.  Impressive.

SAR I

Yeah those wins over the redskins, giants, dolphins and bills with their entire first string benched are impressive 

[Philc1]

On 1/15/2020 at 4:24 PM, SAR I said:

31 other NFL teams didn't have the amount of players on IR and cluster injuries like the Jets did.  Worst in team history.

Trevor Simean played 1 quarter of football.  Luke Falk is out of the NFL, probably won't make the XFL.

Please tell us you're not going to carry on with this ridiculous narrative all offseason.

SAR I

The narrative will carry on until Gase gets fired which could be middle of next season 

[Jet Nut]

On 1/14/2020 at 2:35 PM, BROOKLYN JET said:

The results are in—adding play-action to a call generally adds on average about two yards per pass attempt, per ProFootballFocus.com. 

Cool

The moron thinks without a running game you can dial up play action and, poof, the offense will benefit.

 

[SAR I]

1 hour ago, Philc1 said:

Yeah those wins over the redskins, giants, dolphins and bills with their entire first string benched are impressive 

The Redskins, Giants, Dolphins, and Bills all put better teams with better talent on the field on those days that we played them. 

The November/December Jets looked nothing like the August Jets. 

SAR I

[SAR I]

1 hour ago, Philc1 said:

The narrative will carry on until Gase gets fired which could be middle of next season 

Sad that that’s what you’re rooting for.  Pathetic, actually. 

SAR I