2021 New York Mets Thread

[section314]

34 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

He has a connection to Theo Epstein, so the wonder is if Epstein follows next year.

Wasn't there something out a few weeks ago that Steve Cohen and Epstein are close?

[TuscanyTile2]

4 minutes ago, section314 said:

Wasn't there something out a few weeks ago that Steve Cohen and Epstein are close?

As long as it's Theo and not Jeffrey.

[section314]

3 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

As long as it's Theo and not Jeffrey.

LOL.....yes, hopefully.?

[Scott Dierking]

37 minutes ago, section314 said:

Wasn't there something out a few weeks ago that Steve Cohen and Epstein are close?

I had not seen that.

[section314]

11 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

I had not seen that.

You like McCann signing? I think it's a definite upgrade, especially defensively. Now, get us Springer.?

[Wonderboy]

On 11/18/2020 at 1:14 AM, Maxman said:

Alsonso
Conforto
deGrom
Noah
Stroman

That is a pretty good core to work with. Throw some money at the pen.

Luuuuuuuuuugo

[32EBoozer]

23 hours ago, section314 said:

You like McCann signing? I think it's a definite upgrade, especially defensively. Now, get us Springer.?

I'm more than ok signing a player who offers 80% of what JT brings to the table at a 50% discount and less years. Now use those savings on Springer and Bauer, extending Conforto and beefing up bullpen.

[section314]

34 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

I'm more than ok signing a player who offers 80% of what JT brings to the table at a 50% discount and less years. Now use those savings on Springer and Bauer, extending Conforto and beefing up bullpen.

My thoughts exactly, especially Conforto. Are we twins??⚾️

[Scott Dierking]

On 12/13/2020 at 9:06 AM, section314 said:

You like McCann signing? I think it's a definite upgrade, especially defensively. Now, get us Springer.?

If the McCann signing means that the team will upgrade other FA signings in areas of need (SP and CF), it will be a very good signing.

I am interested to see what Realmuto ultimately gets. If the market starts to soften for him, then maybe the McCann signing does not look as good. I certainly did not want to go beyond 5 years for Realmuto. That would have been trouble down the line. 

Bottom line on McCann, I have not seen him play. It appears he will slow the running game down, which has been a huge problem. Supposedly he has improved his pitch framing. From a defensive standpoint, that will be a big leap over Ramos. Any offense that we get from McCann will be a bonus, and supposedly there is some there and he is a late bloomer.

Now, if this signing allows either Springer OR Bauer (I don't expect both), then it was worth it. But again, I will be curious to see what Realmuto ultimately gets. The Mets did not have that luxury to wait on this position, as it was only McCann or Realmuto. 

[32EBoozer]

2 hours ago, section314 said:

My thoughts exactly, especially Conforto. Are we twins??⚾️

I'm the one on the right!

[32EBoozer]

If you're a stats geek, you guys will love this!! 

• METS ANALYSIS

Grading the Mets’ James McCann signing

35

McCann is an important addition who clarifies the Mets’ plan for this offseason.

By Lukas Vlahos@lvlahos343  Dec 14, 2020, 10:30am EST

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Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports

After a week of the deal being on the proverbial five yard line, the Mets finally signed James McCann on Saturday. The former White Sox catcher received a four-year deal in the $40 million range, well above industry estimates at the start of the offseason. Indeed, it’s strange to see a player who was non-tendered after 2018 sign one of the richest deals in history at his position only two years later. Then again, most guys don’t go from below replacement level to top-5 talents at their position in their age-29 to 31 seasons either, making this one of the more interesting free agent additions to evaluate in recent Mets history.

McCann has improved on both sides of the ball since moving from Detroit to Chicago, but his defensive improvements are a bit easier to understand. Called strikes above average, or CSAA, is Baseball Prospectus’s metric for measuring a catcher’s framing ability, the most important part of their defensive toolkit. Because of the number of opportunities there are to measure a catcher’s framing - every pitch, essentially - this metric stabilizes extremely quickly, with a two month sample being nearly as representative as an entire season. For more on this, check out this article about how the metric is derived, in particular the second figure regarding sample size.

McCann was a horrific defender for much of his career in large part due to his very bad framing, which consistently ranked near the bottom of the league. He made a big improvement in 2020, however, ranking 21st in baseball with a 0.007 CSAA. This came in an abbreviated season of course, but McCann still caught more than 1600 pitches, more than enough data for us to be reasonably confident that his defensive improvement was real. Statcast measured a similar improvement, and video breakdown of McCann suggests he made a conscious effort to change his technique; perhaps getting a chance to pick Yamsani Grandal’s brain gave McCann some insights on how he could improve his own game.

On the offensive side of the ball, things are much murkier. McCann has been a decent hitter in the past, posting a 96 DRC+ in both 2017 and 2019, though there was a significant dip in 2018 and his 2019 resurgence was largely driven by a .359 BABIP. His 2020 was far and away a career year, with highs in every major batting rate stat and seven home runs in only 111 PA. Somewhat concerningly, most of this improvement appears to be a result of a career high 26.9% HR/FB rate, an unsustainable mark in a metric that is extremely susceptible to small sample size fluctuations.

While that last observations suggests McCann is a prime regression candidate, Statcast offers a semi-plausible explanation. Prior to 2019, McCann always had a launch angle of 15-16 degrees and an exit velocity in the 87-88 MPH range. In 2019, he got his average EV over 90 and upped his hard hit rate into the mid-40s, but saw his launch angle dip to 10 degrees - not quite worm burning, but not ideal for power either. In 2020, he consolidated those gains, maintaining his improved EV while returning to his career norms in terms of launch angle.

Similar to CSAA, both EV and launch angle stabilize faster than most other metrics, requiring somewhere between 20 and 25% of a season’s worth of data to be reliable. That’s a little bit less than what we got from McCann, but he’s close enough to be optimistic about these improvements being real. On the other hand, xwOBA wasn’t a fan of McCann’s work, pegging him for a .329 mark much more similar to his production from 2019. In other words, there’s a lot of conflicting information, but it seems like his 2020 was more noise than a legitimate breakout.

Perhaps that’s not the conclusion that you’d like to hear, but McCann can be plenty valuable even if his true offensive talent is more in line with 2019. A catcher who posts a 95 DRC+ is still among the best bats at the position, and combining that with above average catcher defense would give you a solid 2-3 win player by WARP. That’s a big upgrade over what Wilson Ramos has brought to the table the last two years and a bigger upgrade over what the options currently on the roster could’ve generated. A steady defensive presence who can bat seventh and provide some right handed pop is a welcome addition to a team bereft of catching depth.

As if the player evaluation wasn’t complicated enough, the market dynamics around McCann’s signing add another dimension to consider. JT Realmuto is no doubt a superior option, and the Mets didn’t exactly get McCann cheaply. In an article last week, Eno Sarris projected a four year, $85 million deal for the former Phillie, an estimate well below the six figure marks from other sources. Signing McCann over Realmuto for less than a third of the latter’s price is one thing, but if Sarris’s number winds up more accurate this feels less like a savvy move to free up money for other needs and more like simply being a bit cheap.

In either case, what the Mets do next is now even more important. Bypassing Realmuto for McCann solidifies the idea that Springer is their big name free agent of choice. Plenty of rumors have suggested such a signing is an inevitability, but if something goes wrong and Springer signs elsewhere the opportunity to land a true star in this free agency period is all but gone. This is an idea that will be more important when we wrap up the offseason grade as a whole, but it bears mentioning here because of how important McCann is to the overarching plan.

For now, the Mets have added a solid-if-unspectacular player at a position of desperate need for a slightly high but not unreasonable price. Your grade may differ based on what you think of McCann’s true offensive talent, but given the arguments above this signing receives a B.

[32EBoozer]

Arenado or Springer. Gold Glove at 3rd or CF? Arenado 1.5 years younger. Remaining contract for Arenado may be cheaper than new contract for Springer. Houston stadium vs. Colorado Coors field. Both hitters parks.

Rockies 'want to engage' Mets in trade talks for Nolan Arenado: report

Arenado is owed $199 million over the next six seasons

 

Danny AbrianoEditorial Producer

12/16/2020 9:33am

 

 

Nolan Arenado

USA Today

With the Colorado Rockies open to trading superstar third baseman Nolan Arenado, the Mets are reportedly high on their list of teams too engage in discussions.

"The team that I am watching very carefully -- that I was told even this week is the team the Rockies want to engage with -- is the New York Mets," Jon Morosi reported Wednesday morning on MLB Network.

Per Morosi, the Rockies -- looking to potentially free up money to sign pending free agent Trevor Story -- do not want to trade Arenado to the Los Angeles Dodgers and would prefer to deal him to a team outside the NL West.

As far as what a trade package from the Mets for Arenado could possibly look like, Morosi suggested that Robinson Cano could be part of a deal in order to help offset the massive amount of money still owed to Arenado. Beyond that, Morosi speculated that perhaps Brandon Nimmo and a prospect could round out a deal.

Arenado, 29, has six years and a whopping $199 million remaining on the eight-year deal he signed before the 2019 season.

While Arenado has the ability to opt out after the 2021 season, it's fair to wonder if it would be advantageous for him to do so given the current financial state across baseball and the slate of high end position players -- including Carlos Correa, Javier Baez, and Francisco Lindor -- expected to become free agents after this season.

The Mets will have an opening at third base if they decide to play Jeff McNeil at second base this season.

But whether or not they would be open to trading for Arenado and his massive contract remains to be seen.

[section314]

6 hours ago, 32EBoozer said:

Arenado or Springer. Gold Glove at 3rd or CF? Arenado 1.5 years younger. Remaining contract for Arenado may be cheaper than new contract for Springer. Houston stadium vs. Colorado Coors field. Both hitters parks.

Rockies 'want to engage' Mets in trade talks for Nolan Arenado: report

Arenado is owed $199 million over the next six seasons

 

Danny AbrianoEditorial Producer

12/16/2020 9:33am

 

 

 

 

 

Nolan Arenado

USA Today

With the Colorado Rockies open to trading superstar third baseman Nolan Arenado, the Mets are reportedly high on their list of teams too engage in discussions.

"The team that I am watching very carefully -- that I was told even this week is the team the Rockies want to engage with -- is the New York Mets," Jon Morosi reported Wednesday morning on MLB Network.

Per Morosi, the Rockies -- looking to potentially free up money to sign pending free agent Trevor Story -- do not want to trade Arenado to the Los Angeles Dodgers and would prefer to deal him to a team outside the NL West.

As far as what a trade package from the Mets for Arenado could possibly look like, Morosi suggested that Robinson Cano could be part of a deal in order to help offset the massive amount of money still owed to Arenado. Beyond that, Morosi speculated that perhaps Brandon Nimmo and a prospect could round out a deal.

Arenado, 29, has six years and a whopping $199 million remaining on the eight-year deal he signed before the 2019 season.

While Arenado has the ability to opt out after the 2021 season, it's fair to wonder if it would be advantageous for him to do so given the current financial state across baseball and the slate of high end position players -- including Carlos Correa, Javier Baez, and Francisco Lindor -- expected to become free agents after this season.

The Mets will have an opening at third base if they decide to play Jeff McNeil at second base this season.

But whether or not they would be open to trading for Arenado and his massive contract remains to be seen.

Would take him in a heartbeat over Springer. I think Arenado is one of the top 3 players in MLB. No way we get him for the juicer, Nimmo and a prospect.

[32EBoozer]

36 minutes ago, section314 said:

Would take him in a heartbeat over Springer. I think Arenado is one of the top 3 players in MLB. No way we get him for the juicer, Nimmo and a prospect.

Yeah, but there aren’t many teams willing to take on that contract. I would take him over Springer as well. Keeps McNeill at 2nd and  JD andDom  LF & RF

[section314]

38 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

Yeah, but there aren’t many teams willing to take on that contract. I would take him over Springer as well. Keeps McNeill at 2nd and  JD andDom  LF & RF

If they would take the juicer,I would give them any prospect they want.Could we pawn off Matz too????

[32EBoozer]

6 minutes ago, section314 said:

If they would take the juicer,I would give them any prospect they want.Could we pawn off Matz too????

I would drive Matz & Cano to the airport and wait to give Arenada a ride back to the stadium.

on another point, it will be so nice to have someone behind the plate who can manage the opposing running game for the pitching staff 

[section314]

 Not since Grote.

[nycdan]

18 hours ago, section314 said:

Would take him in a heartbeat over Springer. I think Arenado is one of the top 3 players in MLB. No way we get him for the juicer, Nimmo and a prospect.

My only pause is his splits away from the Rockies' home field.

Season	Home / Away	G	AB	PA	H	1B	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	SF	SH	GDP	SB	CS	AVG
Total	Home	543	2080	2303	669	364	148	21	136	386	461	185	32	316	12	25	0	67	7	6	.322
Total	Away	534	2038	2255	537	318	114	6	99	263	299	177	26	368	10	25	5	54	9	9	.263

He's an amazing hitter but his numbers are very different at sea level.  You may be getting closer to the .263 hitter who averages 25 HRs per season instead of the .293 hitter averaging 30 HRs per season.  

[TuscanyTile2]

2 hours ago, nycdan said:

My only pause is his splits away from the Rockies' home field.

Season	Home / Away	G	AB	PA	H	1B	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	SF	SH	GDP	SB	CS	AVG
Total	Home	543	2080	2303	669	364	148	21	136	386	461	185	32	316	12	25	0	67	7	6	.322
Total	Away	534	2038	2255	537	318	114	6	99	263	299	177	26	368	10	25	5	54	9	9	.263

He's an amazing hitter but his numbers are very different at sea level.  You may be getting closer to the .263 hitter who averages 25 HRs per season instead of the .293 hitter averaging 30 HRs per season.  

Agreed.  A few years ago I was really hoping he'd get to FA and somehow the Mets would sign him (though it clearly would never have happened with the Wilpons and the Yanks probably would've signed him anyway).  

He's a tremendous defensive player but you don't pay that kind of money for defense.  I don't think he's worth it for .260 with 25 HRs (not to mention defense that will probably start to decline in another couple of years) .  I'd consider taking back all of Arenado's contract if they take Cano off of our hands but no way am I giving them back Nimmo and/or a prospect.  Instead I'd tell them to go choke on that contract and come begging us to take it off their hands later on, if THEY throw in a top prospect.

The Mets have a financial advantage now but are no longer weighed down by "born-yesterday Brodie".  It's time to rough these teams up a little bit.

[32EBoozer]

7 hours ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Agreed.  A few years ago I was really hoping he'd get to FA and somehow the Mets would sign him (though it clearly would never have happened with the Wilpons and the Yanks probably would've signed him anyway).  

He's a tremendous defensive player but you don't pay that kind of money for defense.  I don't think he's worth it for .260 with 25 HRs (not to mention defense that will probably start to decline in another couple of years) .  I'd consider taking back all of Arenado's contract if they take Cano off of our hands but no way am I giving them back Nimmo and/or a prospect.  Instead I'd tell them to go choke on that contract and come begging us to take it off their hands later on, if THEY throw in a top prospect.

The Mets have a financial advantage now but are no longer weighed down by "born-yesterday Brodie".  It's time to rough these teams up a little bit.

At that point they’d probably take the Dodgers offer. They are stacked talent wise in minor leagues. They don’t want to see Arenada 16x/yr. Mets have to give something. Kimmo and a high B prospect might do the deal. I’d do that because Springer will cost more IMO 

[SAM SAM HE'S OUR MAN]

On 12/17/2020 at 11:10 AM, 32EBoozer said:

Arenado or Springer. Gold Glove at 3rd or CF? Arenado 1.5 years younger. Remaining contract for Arenado may be cheaper than new contract for Springer. Houston stadium vs. Colorado Coors field. Both hitters parks.

Rockies 'want to engage' Mets in trade talks for Nolan Arenado: report

Arenado is owed $199 million over the next six seasons

 

Danny AbrianoEditorial Producer

12/16/2020 9:33am

 

 

 

 

 

Nolan Arenado

USA Today

With the Colorado Rockies open to trading superstar third baseman Nolan Arenado, the Mets are reportedly high on their list of teams too engage in discussions.

"The team that I am watching very carefully -- that I was told even this week is the team the Rockies want to engage with -- is the New York Mets," Jon Morosi reported Wednesday morning on MLB Network.

Per Morosi, the Rockies -- looking to potentially free up money to sign pending free agent Trevor Story -- do not want to trade Arenado to the Los Angeles Dodgers and would prefer to deal him to a team outside the NL West.

As far as what a trade package from the Mets for Arenado could possibly look like, Morosi suggested that Robinson Cano could be part of a deal in order to help offset the massive amount of money still owed to Arenado. Beyond that, Morosi speculated that perhaps Brandon Nimmo and a prospect could round out a deal.

Arenado, 29, has six years and a whopping $199 million remaining on the eight-year deal he signed before the 2019 season.

While Arenado has the ability to opt out after the 2021 season, it's fair to wonder if it would be advantageous for him to do so given the current financial state across baseball and the slate of high end position players -- including Carlos Correa, Javier Baez, and Francisco Lindor -- expected to become free agents after this season.

The Mets will have an opening at third base if they decide to play Jeff McNeil at second base this season.

But whether or not they would be open to trading for Arenado and his massive contract remains to be seen.

[32EBoozer]

Steve Cohen gets feisty as Mets pass on Tomoyuki Sugano
The Mets are looking to make a free-agent splashunder new owner Steve Cohen, but it appears they no longer are in contention for Japanese pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano.

“The Mets are not in on [Sugano],” The Post’s Joel Sherman tweeted Monday, confirming an earlier report by Jon Heyman that their “main focus is elsewhere.”

Sugano, whose deadline to sign with an MLB team is Thursday, also has been linked to the Giants, Blue Jays and Red Sox. The 31-year-old righty owns a career record of 101-50 with a 2.34 ERA over eight seasons with the Yomiuri Giants, who reportedly have offered him a four-year contract with multiple opt-outs to return to Japan.

Meanwhile, Cohen continues to interact with fans on social media about the Mets’ offseason activity. When one Twitter user wrote to him, “There is no reason we should be out on Sugano,” Cohen replied Monday, “based on what.”

Another fan responded, “What exactly are we doing? Is [catcher] James McCann really going to be our biggest pickup this offseason? Please say no.”

Cohen then added: “Let me put it differently. Don’t you think someone will take our money? It just has to make sense.”

When another Twitter user tagged him in a post saying “time to hibernate until Spring Training,” Cohen shot back, “That’s the spirit, just give up and go to sleep…I don’t need to be popular, I just need to make good decisions.”

Other available starting pitchers include Trevor Bauer, Masahiro Tanaka and Jake Odorizzi, while outfielder George Springer remains the marquee position player remaining on the free-agent market.

The Mets inked McCann to a four-year, $40.6 million deal in mid-December; they also signed reliever Trevor May earlier last month.

 

[Lith]

Love this.  Just gotta make sure we can extend Lindor beyond 2021.

[JustInFudge]

20 minutes ago, Lith said:

Love this.  Just gotta make sure we can extend Lindor beyond 2021.

LFGM

[Grandy]

This deal is a win, especially if we extend him.

Like this much more than giving Springer a huge contract.

[Sonny Werblin]

1 hour ago, Lith said:

Love this.  Just gotta make sure we can extend Lindor beyond 2021.

Great deal. Can't believe they got Corrasco too. Does this mean they are no longer in the market for Bauer or another starter?

[SAM SAM HE'S OUR MAN]

[SAM SAM HE'S OUR MAN]

[SAM SAM HE'S OUR MAN]

[nycdan]

33 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

Great deal. Can't believe they got Corrasco too. Does this mean they are no longer in the market for Bauer or another starter?

Not sure I'd say that.

After DeGrom and Stroman (and Thor when he returns) what do they really have?  Amazing how this rotation was absolutely dominant just a few years ago but Harvey, Wheeler and Colon are long gone.  We don't know when and what we'll get with Thor and I'm not even that certain about Stroman.  We could definitely use one more top of the rotation guy.

[Lith]

 

[RutgersJetFan]

I am 100% speechless. Cannot believe the Mets made a deal this great. We're usually the Indians in a deal like this.

[prime21]

HAAAAAATE the Mets and Lindor is my favorite non Yankee player....go figure.

 

Although I hate the Mets I am actually happy for the fans.  New owner plus a big trade. A great off season brings so much joy going into the season.  I think they will still get Springer.

[Scott Dierking]

51 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

I am 100% speechless. Cannot believe the Mets made a deal this great. We're usually the Indians in a deal like this.

They better extend him.

[Lith]

53 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

I am 100% speechless. Cannot believe the Mets made a deal this great. We're usually the Indians in a deal like this.

Exactly.  It is like a Bill O'Brien trade, except we are not playing the O'Brien role.