Mel Kiper: Jets should trade #2 pick and keep Darnold

[jgb]

2 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Time will tell, but I think you still underestimate how poorly he and this team were managed.

It is certainly possible. Maybe Darnold is the next... well there really is no comparator for someone who starts his career as poorly as Darnold and becomes a legit FQB. Closest is probably Gannon. Who had 4 good years in like seasons 13-17 in his career. It’s not good odds. But long shots do eventually come in.

[FidelioJet]

4 minutes ago, jgb said:

It is certainly possible. Maybe Darnold is the next... well there really is no comparator for someone who starts his career as poorly as Darnold and becomes a legit FQB. Closest is probably Gannon. Who had 4 good years in like seasons 13-17 in his career. It’s not good odds. But long shots do eventually come in.

I’m still looking back at his first year and saw a very promising 21 year old - that needed some polishing but had all of the tools to be a great one.

The thing is, he got noticeably worse.  Had he stayed flat I might actually be more inclined to agree with you....But what the Jets did caused him to regress.

A good organization can reverse that trend.  I certainly don’t think he’s a lock to turn it around but I do believe he has the talent to do so.

[jgb]

Just now, FidelioJet said:

I’m still looking back at his first year and saw a very promising 21 year old - that needed some polishing but had all of the tools to be a great one.

The thing is, he got noticeably worse.  Had he stayed flat I might actually be more inclined to agree with you....But what the Jets did caused him to regress.

A good organization can reverse that trend.  I certainly don’t think he’s a lock to turn it around but I do believe he has the talent to do so.

There are no locks. But seems like we disagree in the likelihood, which is fine. I put him at <5% chance of him becoming a top 10 NFL QB. 

[slats]

52 minutes ago, jgb said:

It is certainly possible. Maybe Darnold is the next... well there really is no comparator for someone who starts his career as poorly as Darnold and becomes a legit FQB. Closest is probably Gannon. Who had 4 good years in like seasons 13-17 in his career. It’s not good odds. But long shots do eventually come in.

Steve Young is probably a closer potential comparison. His Bucs and these Jets share a lot of commonalities. 

Plunkett and Vinny come to mind, too. It happens. 

[jgb]

13 minutes ago, slats said:

Steve Young is probably a closer potential comparison. His Bucs and these Jets share a lot of commonalities. 

Plunkett and Vinny come to mind, too. It happens. 

Yes it does happen. But it is super rare.

[TMAC]

Easy for him to say.  Not a Jet fan.  Won't have to watch Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields become the next Joe Montana/ Dan Marino/ John Elway/Peyton Manning.  We need to move on.

[Jet Nut]

On 12/8/2020 at 10:38 PM, KINGDIRK said:

And 12 months from now you’re giving Sam $35-$38m a year?

We're giving him $35-$38m a year only if he's shown hes worth it.

In that case I'd be 100% behind it.  

[Jet Nut]

2 hours ago, jgb said:

It is certainly possible. Maybe Darnold is the next... well there really is no comparator for someone who starts his career as poorly as Darnold and becomes a legit FQB. Closest is probably Gannon. Who had 4 good years in like seasons 13-17 in his career. It’s not good odds. But long shots do eventually come in.

There also arent a lot of comparators for a player who was so highly regarded, who came into the league with people raving about so much of his game failing and moving on at 23.   

The odds given the history of the league of a QB moving on and then become legit is rare.  But the odds of a 23 year old becoming legit at 24 years old who is finally given a real chance I think are better

[jgb]

8 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

There also arent a lot of comparators for a player who was so highly regarded, who came into the league with people raving about so much of his game failing and moving on at 23.   

The odds given the history of the league of a QB moving on and then become legit is rare.  But the odds of a 23 year old becoming legit at 24 years old who is finally given a real chance I think are better

I don’t think Darnold is going to wash out of the NFL at 23. I just don’t think he will ever be a top-10 QB. Or top 16, even.

[Jet Nut]

3 minutes ago, jgb said:

I don’t think Darnold is going to wash out of the NFL at 23. I just don’t think he will ever be a top-10 QB. Or top 16, even.

I understand and given what hes put on tape its going to get the full time opportunity in order to turn it around. 

[jgb]

3 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

I understand and given what hes put on tape its going to get the full time opportunity in order to turn it around. 

He may not even be brought in as a starter to his next team. He may have to win a training camp battle or wait for an injury to start again. 

[Losmeister]

4 hours ago, jgb said:

If Darnold becomes Andy Dalton at this point it will be a miraculous turnaround.

And Rosen came with several years of cheap team control. Darnold is a one year rental 

yes and yes

this whole Samis a victimis weakaf   if he was REALLY GOOD and beingheld back thats what it would looklike.

its not. he looks really poor ona poor team.

[Losmeister]

1 hour ago, jgb said:

He may not even be brought in as a starter to his next team. He may have to win a training camp battle or wait for an injury to start again. 

he was GIFTED a starting NFL QB position. He has only played like a legit NFL QB about1 out of every 5 or 6 games. He'splayedlike a back up easily 2/3 games. 

[bostonmajet]

On 12/11/2020 at 11:05 AM, Jetsfan80 said:

Luck won 33 games his first 3 seasons, including 2 playoff wins.  It worked out well for them.

Kyler Murray is doing quite well for Arizona.  Prior to his unfortunate injury, Joe Burrow was doing great for Cincy.  Jared Goff and Cam Newton both got to Super Bowls.  Oh and there was also this guy called Peyton Manning.  

Wentz and Mariota were both the 2nd-picked QB's at # 2 with better QB's going # 1 both of those times, so that doesn't exactly help your argument.  The Jets will be picking # 1, not # 2.  

QB's are hard to find.  When you need one, you should go ahead and draft one.  If it doesn't work out, keep drafting one until you find one.  Again, that worked out well for the Cardinals.  One year after failing with Rosen they succeeded with Kyler Murray.  It's far better to draft a QB and miss as opposed to passing on a QB who ends up going on to greatness.  The Jets have done that several times in franchise history, passing on Peyton Manning, Russell Wilson, and Deshaun Watson/Pat Mahomes and opting not to draft a QB at all instead.

2 playoff wins? we had that with Sanchez (#4 pick) - proving the an okay QB can win big games with a solid/very good team. Don't we want more than that? My point with Luck is that the Colts couldn't protect him and he kept getting hurt and retired early - had the team been really good around him, maybe he didn't get hurt and he would still be playing bringing in the SB multiple times.

Russell Wilson and Pat Mahomes were a second round pick and the #10 pick respectively - now you are making. my point - build a team and pick a QB next year or year after with a top 10 pick.

Watson and Murray haven't won squat yet - this is my point - build a quality team in 2 years with the extra picks and with a good coach and quality QB, we can be a perpetual winner - especially if we wait a year or two and get the QB for 4-5 years on the cheap on an established team.

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, bostonmajet said:

2 playoff wins? we had that with Sanchez (#4 pick) 

I'll stop you right there.  Luck won those 2 playoff games.  He was the only thing good about the Colts' franchise post-Peyton.  Sanchez was dragged along for the ride.  The weakest link of an otherwise great team.

Just stop.  You're embarrassing yourself with this line of logic.

[jgb]

1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I'll stop you right there.  Luck won those 2 playoff games.  He was the only thing good about the Colts' franchise post-Peyton.  Sanchez was dragged along for the ride.  The weakest link of an otherwise great team.

Just stop.  You're embarrassing yourself with this line of logic.

Cant wait to debate Darnold for the next ten years on here every time he scores a TD in mop up duty.

[Jetsfan80]

5 hours ago, slats said:

Steve Young is probably a closer potential comparison. His Bucs and these Jets share a lot of commonalities. 

Plunkett and Vinny come to mind, too. It happens. 

OK.  So there's a handful of examples where a QB left for dead had his career resurrected and ended up a successful QB.  And there really haven't been any examples of this for about 2 decades.  

Meanwhile there's dozens and dozens of QB's who sucked and went on to continue to suck.

It's a bad bet.

[Jetsfan80]

10 hours ago, DetroitRed said:

I agree with this take. You’re also fooling yourself if you think Douglas would never consider this. The compensation for Fields could be huge and unjustified

Trading down can always be considered.

Rolling with Darnold?  Nah.  There are plenty of bridge options out there if Douglas truly wants to take a pass on this year's QB class.  There's absolutely no reason to hold onto Darnold for another season and then lose him to free agency for nothing.

Trade Darnold for 2021 picks, no matter what.  That's the only logical move when it comes to what to do with Darnold.

[Jetsfan80]

12 hours ago, doitny said:

problem is not everyone is Peyton. we hope Trevor is.

i had agreed with the post that if we get the #1 then we pick Trevor. but if we dont then dont force it and pick the next best QB if you dont like him just because we need one. 

Who said anything about drafting a QB we don't like?  My take is that among the Fields-Zach-Wilson-Trey Lance-Mac Jones group, there will be at least one that Douglas likes.  In which case he should take him.

If he seriously doesn't like any QB in this class outside of Lawrence, that would be quite strange.  There's really no reason for any front office to consider this a 1-QB class.   I see no compelling reason why this is a Lawrence-or-bust class, or why Douglas would treat it as such.  

[jgb]

23 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

OK.  So there's a handful of examples where a QB left for dead had his career resurrected and ended up a successful QB.  And there really haven't been any examples of this for about 2 decades.  

Meanwhile there's dozens and dozens of QB's who sucked and went on to continue to suck.

It's a bad bet.

My dream is that one day people will be able to differentiate stating the odds and predicting the most likely outcome isn’t “halting” or rooting for that scenario to come true.

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, jgb said:

My dream is that one day people will be able to differentiate stating the odds and predicting the most likely outcome isn’t “halting” or rooting for that scenario to come true.

Well assuming Darnold is off the team after the season, I can't say that I'll be rooting very hard for him to do well.  First off, why root hard for a non-Jet?  Second off, I will not be looking forward to the posts we'll be subjected to whining about it.

Luckily there's a low likelihood of this happening.  I imagine we'll see a couple decent performances out of Darnold as a QB2, followed by a quiet period where he drops to QB3 status and then out of the league entirely.  

[jgb]

Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

Well assuming Darnold is off the team after the season and heads elsewhere, I can't say that I'll be rooting very hard for him to do well.  First off, why root hard for a non-Jet?  Second off, I will not be looking forward to the posts we'll be subjected to whining about it.

Luckily there's a low likelihood of this happening.  I imagine we'll see a couple decent performances out of Darnold as a QB2, followed by a quiet period where he drops to QB3 status and then out of the league entirely.  

Geno has started one game since leaving the Jets. A thread was started about how he’d now prove all the “haterz” wrong. It was a short thread.

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, jgb said:

Geno has started one game since leaving the Jets. A thread was started about how he’d now prove all the “haterz” wrong. It was a short thread.

That's nothing.  Remember the Christian Hackenberg AAF game?  lol.  

[jgb]

3 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

That's nothing.  Remember the Christian Hackenberg AAF game?  lol.  

If you don’t want to debate Darnold for the next ten years might as well nico out. We all know it’s coming.

[Jetscode1]

41 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

OK.  So there's a handful of examples where a QB left for dead had his career resurrected and ended up a successful QB.  And there really haven't been any examples of this for about 2 decades.  

Meanwhile there's dozens and dozens of QB's who sucked and went on to continue to suck.

It's a bad bet.

Agreed,  I cannot recall one getting better with the original team that drafted him.

[jgb]

1 minute ago, Jetscode1 said:

Agreed,  I cannot recall one getting better with the original team that drafted him.

Hater 

[Jetscode1]

54 minutes ago, jgb said:

Hater 

Huh?  I'm a lover not a hater.

[Yucatan Jetfan]

We might not win another game this decade

Sent from my SM-J701M using Tapatalk

[bostonmajet]

2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I'll stop you right there.  Luck won those 2 playoff games.  He was the only thing good about the Colts' franchise post-Peyton.  Sanchez was dragged along for the ride.  The weakest link of an otherwise great team.

Just stop.  You're embarrassing yourself with this line of logic.

Really - I am embarrassing myself? The point was the Sanchez won those games not because he was a great QB, but because he played on a good team that 'dragged him' - so worried about arguing with me, you completely missed the point. Jets went further with an inferior QB - 2 AFCC games - not because of 1st round pick but because of team: A great team with an okay QB will do better than a crappy team with a great QB - My point all along - trade the #1 pick for a great team built through the draft;

 

So maybe you should focus on understanding my comments and 'he in glass houses' with the embarrassing comment. And, I will stop when i am good an ready - I think that is now, this conversation has already sunk - we can just disagree ...

[jgb]

5 minutes ago, bostonmajet said:

Really - I am embarrassing myself? The point was the Sanchez won those games not because he was a great QB, but because he played on a good team that 'dragged him' - so worried about arguing with me, you completely missed the point. Jets went further with an inferior QB - 2 AFCC games - not because of 1st round pick but because of team: A great team with an okay QB will do better than a crappy team with a great QB - My point all along - trade the #1 pick for a great team built through the draft;

 

So maybe you should focus on understanding my comments and 'he in glass houses' with the embarrassing comment. And, I will stop when i am good an ready - I think that is now, this conversation has already sunk - we can just disagree ...

Jets are much further from building a team capable of dragging a bad QB than just drafting a good QB