Mel Kiper: Jets should trade #2 pick and keep Darnold

[genot]

19 minutes ago, jgb said:

Don't make me list the number of QB busts in the top of the first round. His USC days are ancient history. His NFL days are much more indicative of future performance.

Chosen Rosen's stock dumped from a top 10 pick to second rounder in one season of Darnoldesque performance. Darnold now has 3 on his CV and only 1 cheap year left on his deal.

Rosen is a statue. Has no mobility. Can make no plays outside the pocket. Classic example of a career backup,at best. 

[DepressedJetsFan23]

The logic I see in this is trading back, then drafting another qb like a Zach Wilson or Trey Lance etc. It is hard to deny the success of mid to late round drafted quarterbacks being because the team around them was better. Such as Lamar, Mahomes, Watson. It is hard to imagine running it back with Darnold again. But taking a mid round guy and putting him in a position surrounded with more talent is something I am intrigued by at least. With that being said, do not trade back If we can get Trevor. 

[y2k8]

 

Darnold needs a change of coaching staff more than he needs a change of scenery.

I really hate the idea of spending a #2 pick on another QB when the offense isn't ready to support one.

 

[KINGDIRK]

2 hours ago, More Cowbell said:

Why? Do you think he gas earned that? I see a 3 year deal that allowes you to get out after the first year.

You’d be a terrible agent lol.

A year from now Sam will have finished his 4th season leaving him just his 5th year to honor. After that its Unrestricted FA or franchise tag. Go check the QB tag number then tell me why he would sign a 3 year deal a year from now?

This is how you end up in a Dak Prescott type contract situation. 

[Icer]

35 minutes ago, jgb said:

Don't make me list the number of QB busts in the top of the first round. His USC days are ancient history. His NFL days are much more indicative of future performance.

Chosen Rosen's stock dumped from a top 10 pick to second rounder in one season of Darnoldesque performance. Darnold now has 3 on his CV and only 1 cheap year left on his deal.

Rosen can't even get off the Practice Squad and Darnold's stats aren't much better than his. People need to get off the Darnold was projected as the top pick nonsense, he got passed up by 2 teams needing a QB before Big Mac drafted him. I'm sure there are teams out there who think they can fix him like a reclamation project, but its no slam dunk that he is ever going to get better than he is right now. Darnold is not Tannehill, even though Gase is poison

If JD and co don't believe in Fields/Lance/Wilson/Jones at #2, we should still look to upgrade the position which to date might be the worst on the team. Stafford, Ryan, Winston, etc may be available.

[jgb]

29 minutes ago, genot said:

Rosen is a statue. Has no mobility. Can make no plays outside the pocket. Classic example of a career backup,at best. 

Correct and why I had Rosen as "undraftable" going under the draft.

[genot]

6 minutes ago, jgb said:

Correct and why I had Rosen as "undraftable" going under the draft.

Wish you weren't so down on Darnold. If you and other's weren't, you would be more exited about the dozen or so options with a trade down.

[genot]

42 minutes ago, y2k8 said:

 

Darnold needs a change of coaching staff more than he needs a change of scenery.

I really hate the idea of spending a #2 pick on another QB when the offense isn't ready to support one.

 

Short, succinct, and correct. Very good, my friend.

[Charlie Brown]

15 hours ago, Beerfish said:

You do not even have to stick with darnold after another year, there are good QBs every year in the draft.

Build the team then draft the QB.

Now of course most people feel that lawrence is so so good that you have to take him.  I do not feel he is that good and is not a must have.

Thank you!!

People don't get the obvious, they act like getting a QB alone secures a SB, NO IT DOES NOT...

You must have a strong organization and team surrounding that player (QB) to excel.  Not sure?

Just ask generational superstar Dam Marino how it feels to have WON all those SBs....

[jgb]

14 minutes ago, genot said:

Wish you weren't so down on Darnold. If you and other's weren't, you would be more exited about the dozen or so options with a trade down.

I was optimistic about Darnold and thought Macc backed into the second-best QB in the draft. Unfortunately, now the evidence says that I was wrong.

[sec101row23]

1 hour ago, genot said:

I can't prove that, your right. You more than most should know that the talk before the draft was who goes first. Baker or Darnold. You don't draft a QB in the top 5 to be serviceable

Here’s the thing with draft prospects.  You can make what at the time and the information available to you a good decision and it still not work out.   The problem with Sam is that we now have 3 seasons of NFL experience to make another evaluation and decision about him.  It would be malpractice by JD to cling to the Pre draft scouting reports and pre draft opinions regarding Sam right now.   Under no circumstances should “building around Sam” be a consideration at this point.  

[MichaelScott]

Pretty much loses all credibility as soon as he says #2 pick

[More Cowbell]

44 minutes ago, KINGDIRK said:

You’d be a terrible agent lol.

A year from now Sam will have finished his 4th season leaving him just his 5th year to honor. After that its Unrestricted FA or franchise tag. Go check the QB tag number then tell me why he would sign a 3 year deal a year from now?

This is how you end up in a Dak Prescott type contract situation. 

Sam is not getting the tag. Why would you tag him? You tag someone you don't want to lose but you aren't  able to agree on a deal. With the way Sam has played, do you think this is actually a concern that the Jets might lose Sam? 

I don't care who his agent is? There is no pot of gold waiting for Sam. There is also no long term contract worth 100 million. The Jets if they decide to not to draft a QB is probably going to offer him the best deal. If he goes the FA route, he likely gets a one year audition to see if he can stay healthy. There is no agent that can change this.

[Ex-Rex]

15 hours ago, Beerfish said:

You do not even have to stick with darnold after another year, there are good QBs every year in the draft.

Build the team then draft the QB.

Now of course most people feel that lawrence is so so good that you have to take him.  I do not feel he is that good and is not a must have.

If you build the team first you will never get a franchise QB. They go very high in the draft and 8-8 teams don't draft high (or low) enough to get the best ones. Then you are stuck with FA washouts. 

[Sonny Werblin]

Hire a new coach and give him input as to whether he wants Darnold going forward. However, JD makes the final call. If JD has Lawrence as a generational talent, Dick Hammer's grandkid will be slinging the ball for some other franchise next season.

[genot]

25 minutes ago, sec101row23 said:

Here’s the thing with draft prospects.  You can make what at the time and the information available to you a good decision and it still not work out.   The problem with Sam is that we now have 3 seasons of NFL experience to make another evaluation and decision about him.  It would be malpractice by JD to cling to the Pre draft scouting reports and pre draft opinions regarding Sam right now.   Under no circumstances should “building around Sam” be a consideration at this point.  

With respect, i think in this case you are wrong. Darnold has shown with limited at best talent around him he can put points on the board. The rare occasions when the o-line isn't overwhelmed by a teams front seven, Darnold makes plays. With his arm and legs. That's with limited receiving talent around him. His go to guy when he was in trouble as a rookie,(Herndon), has been rendered useless as a receiver, because he has to stay back and pass block. That alone might not be enough to justify passing on TL.  When you consider the amount of ransom you can extract from an other team in a trade down, makes me believe he'll take the risk, (big or small), and trade out of the 1st or 2nd pick.

[usapaw]

Clemson is a stacked team and the back-up looked fantastic when he filled in for Covid-19 stricken TL. Maybe the back-up is "Generational" also?

I am not seeing anything great when I watched him last week. He may well be a great QB but he will get killed, just as quickly as Darnold,  behind the Jets line. 

[jgb]

21 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

Sam is not getting the tag. Why would you tag him? You tag someone you don't want to lose but you aren't  able to agree on a deal. With the way Sam has played, do you think this is actually a concern that the Jets might lose Sam? 

I don't care who his agent is? There is no pot of gold waiting for Sam. There is also no long term contract worth 100 million. The Jets if they decide to not to draft a QB is probably going to offer him the best deal. If he goes the FA route, he likely gets a one year audition to see if he can stay healthy. There is no agent that can change this.

Bingo. Sam will be traded this off season -- for what I don't know -- that's his "Gase is so terrible maybe you don't blow as much as your performance indicates" consideration. I do not think it will be a premium pick -- not for an oft-unavailable player who has performed like one of the worst QBs in the league and only has one year left on his deal. The only way we get a 2nd rounder is if we give a 3rd back in the deal. I think a straight-up 4th rounder is a more reasonable expectation. If by some very unlikely circumstance he's a Jet next year, he'll either have to play under the last year of his rook contract or hold out/push for trade -- which would be dumb IMHO. He may never get another chance to redeem himself and prove he's a starter again (see Geno Smith/Mark Sanchez). Those are his only options.

There is no reasonably likely set of circumstances that Sam is going to get new money this off season. His best case scenario is he lands somewhere either as a starter or gets elevated to starter, blows the doors off the first half of the season and gets extended mid-year.

 

[genot]

41 minutes ago, jgb said:

I was optimistic about Darnold and thought Macc backed into the second-best QB in the draft. Unfortunately, now the evidence says that I was wrong.

The DNA evidence against O.J was overwhelming, but when you put the evidence to the test in the trial, it became very suspect. On the surface yea, Darnold hasn't been impressive. When you look at all the reasons why he hasn't been, you begin to think that things very well could be different with a real HC, and a more talented and STABLE supporting cast

[Waka Flocka Flacco]

2 minutes ago, genot said:

The DNA evidence against O.J was overwhelming, but when you put the evidence to the test in the trial, it became very suspect.

It is absolutely astonishing that you are using this as a parallel to draw the conclusion that you are drawing. This is why everybody else in the entire world considers you Darnold supporters to basically be gross fetishists.

[NYJ37/12]

8 minutes ago, genot said:

The DNA evidence against O.J was overwhelming, but when you put the evidence to the test in the trial, it became very suspect. On the surface yea, Darnold hasn't been impressive. When you look at all the reasons why he hasn't been, you begin to think that things very well could be different with a real HC, and a more talented and STABLE supporting cast

I cant believe you just went there, lol

[jgb]

14 minutes ago, genot said:

The DNA evidence against O.J was overwhelming, but when you put the evidence to the test in the trial, it became very suspect. On the surface yea, Darnold hasn't been impressive. When you look at all the reasons why he hasn't been, you begin to think that things very well could be different with a real HC, and a more talented and STABLE supporting cast

There are always situations that defy the evidence. That doesn't make them good bets. My position is someone will trade commiserate with the net present value of Darnold. That value is quite low because of this evidence. Sure he could surprise us. There are always outliers. But you don't pay full price for those.

[genot]

9 minutes ago, Waka Flocka Flacco said:

It is absolutely astonishing that you are using this as a parallel to draw the conclusion that you are drawing. This is why everybody else in the entire world considers you Darnold supporters to basically be gross fetishists.

It isnt about innocence or guilt. It's about looking at the reason as to why people are drawing thier conclusion. Duh. Lol.

[genot]

13 minutes ago, Waka Flocka Flacco said:

It is absolutely astonishing that you are using this as a parallel to draw the conclusion that you are drawing. This is why everybody else in the entire world considers you Darnold supporters to basically be gross fetishists.

I had no idea people in Uzbekistan we' re considering my opinion on Darnold. Im flattered.

[joewilly12]

2 hours ago, y2k8 said:

 

Darnold needs a change of coaching staff more than he needs a change of scenery.

I really hate the idea of spending a #2 pick on another QB when the offense isn't ready to support one.

 

#2 pick? 

[K Clue]

16 hours ago, AtticusGase said:

He discussed this on Rich Cimini’s podcast. Accumulate more picks and draft more high end offensive and defensive talent to fill the roster. Sounds good, but I’d rather take the chance on the QB. 
 

1) Darnold needs a change of scenery. Running it back with him next year is just delaying the inevitable (see Trubisky). Get what you can for him and move on. 
 

2) If the Jets end up doing what Kiper says they are likely to become the Colts in a few years. Good team, but ultimately limited by their QB. I’d imagine that it would be a team like the Colts who would offer a package to move up for Fields because they know how difficult it is to find a franchise QB.

 

“Who in the hell is Mel Kiper” -Bill Tobin

[KINGDIRK]

1 hour ago, More Cowbell said:

Sam is not getting the tag. Why would you tag him? You tag someone you don't want to lose but you aren't  able to agree on a deal. With the way Sam has played, do you think this is actually a concern that the Jets might lose Sam? 

I don't care who his agent is? There is no pot of gold waiting for Sam. There is also no long term contract worth 100 million. The Jets if they decide to not to draft a QB is probably going to offer him the best deal. If he goes the FA route, he likely gets a one year audition to see if he can stay healthy. There is no agent that can change this.

You alluded to Sam signing a 3 year deal after next season. That’s not happening. Period, end of story. To suggest Sam will be here next year- rubbish.

[slimjasi]

31 minutes ago, genot said:

The DNA evidence against O.J was overwhelming, but when you put the evidence to the test in the trial, it became very suspect. On the surface yea, Darnold hasn't been impressive. When you look at all the reasons why he hasn't been, you begin to think that things very well could be different with a real HC, and a more talented and STABLE supporting cast

So the chances that OJ did it roughly equate to the chances that Darnold is a bust?

I agree!

[genot]

41 minutes ago, usapaw said:

Clemson is a stacked team and the back-up looked fantastic when he filled in for Covid-19 stricken TL. Maybe the back-up is "Generational" also?

I am not seeing anything great when I watched him last week. He may well be a great QB but he will get killed, just as quickly as Darnold,  behind the Jets line. 

 

[southtown24th]

huh?

[y2k8]

10 minutes ago, joewilly12 said:

#2 pick? 

If they think that Lawrence is this generational talent that they simply cannot pass up, pick him.

But if you are telling me Fields is also, I am not buying it. 

We need to build a good team period. We can address QB later if Sam really is terrible.  Pick up the option and see what happens. Maybe they like a QB in the late first or second round and have that guy compete w Darnold next year.

I just don't see a reason to make another rush to failure. Picking Fields at #2 seems like a waste at this point.

[More Cowbell]

3 minutes ago, KINGDIRK said:

You alluded to Sam signing a 3 year deal after next season. That’s not happening. Period, end of story. To suggest Sam will be here next year- rubbish.

A three year deal that gives the Jets outs after the first year is a very realistic and very smart but that is if the Jets don't draft a QB. If they do , Sam is getting traded or is going to play his last year and then get waived.

[Skeet Ulrich]

4 minutes ago, y2k8 said:

I just don't see a reason to make another rush to failure. Picking Fields at #2 seems like a waste at this point.

You can scheme around a bad OL to a degree, bad secondary, bad WRs.

You can't scheme around a bad QB. Darnold's a problem and he needs to be resolved.

[genot]

15 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

So the chances that OJ did it roughly equate to the chances that Darnold is a bust?

I agree!

Thats not what im saying. A cursory analysis of Sam would lead you to believe he' s not very good. When you delve deeper, you realize the issues go way beyond what the QBs capabilities are. Miller's.txt

[y2k8]

8 minutes ago, Skeet Ulrich said:

You can scheme around a bad OL to a degree, bad secondary, bad WRs.

You can't scheme around a bad QB. Darnold's a problem and he needs to be resolved.

Well, this team hasn't with current coaches.

And again, my point isn't that they should not try to replace him, it's that the team is still in early rebuild. I'd rather trade out, get more #1 picks (maybe use a late one on a QB) and stock this team with talent quickly. Everyone here is so worried about restarting the clock - if so, why waste the first 2 years of a rookie contract on the 2021 season that will be a train wreck anyway?