DeVonta Smith

[JXN_JET]

Anyway he falls to us at 25? I see him as a top 15 pick but if he somehow falls, he has to be this pick. Dude catches everything thrown his way. 

[JustInFudge]

I dont think so, I'd love it though.  TL/Devonta first round is potentially franchise changing. 

[Rhg1084]

1 hour ago, JXN_JET said:

Anyway he falls to us at 25? I see him as a top 15 pick but if he somehow falls, he has to be this pick. Dude catches everything thrown his way. 

Possibly, you never know. Nobody thought CeeDee Lamb was falling to pick 18 last year 

[derp]

I throw weight out there a lot as a criteria for WR's - it's not something we think about a lot but in a physical league with smaller catch windows and more contested plays, physical strength is important for WR's and it is at least partially represented by weight.

Smith is listed at 175 pounds. It will be interesting to see how he actually weighs in, because while it may not seem insanely light for a first round WR prospect, it is.

I looked back the last ten years for kicks. The only WR's to be lighter than that and be drafted in the first round were Marquise Brown and Tavon Austin - both of whom were insanely fast, Brown did not run due to injury and Austin ran 4.34. Brown also went 25th, Austin 8th (in a weak draft).

Of the other wide receivers under 190 pounds drafted in the first round over the last ten years: all were also extremely fast, none of the other receivers were even under 180 pounds at the combine, and most were drafted in the latter portion of the first round too. The exception was John Ross who was drafted 9th after setting the combine 40 record.

Otherwise you've got Brandin Cooks who was drafted 20th, ran 4.33, and was 189 - Phillip Dorsett who was drafted 29th, ran 4.33, and was 185 - Will Fuller who was drafted 21st, ran 4.32, and was 186 - Calvin Ridley who was drafted 26th, ran 4.43, and was 189.

Moral of the story is guys who are light don't go in the first round a ton. And when they do, they're fast, and don't go that early. Only two went before the 20th pick, and all but one who ran 40's ran sub 4.35.

I'm not sure Smith is *that* fast - I think he profiles more closely to Ridley - and again the lighter profile just isn't what the NFL does early in drafts.

Not saying it's right, not saying the trend continues. But Smith's draft profile is going to be really unique and his stock will be extremely interesting to follow this draft season.

[Defense Wins Championships]

If guys like Watkins, Evans, Beckham Jr and Cooks didn't make it past the 20th pick and the likes of Ruggs, Jeudy and Lamb didn't make it past pick 17...

Unfortunately I don't believe Smith will have a chance to call into the mid to late 20's (let's just hope Seattle doesn't get hot and win the SB). 

[nycdan]

I doubt Smith gets anywhere near our 2nd pick but here's a possible option.

Justyn Ross got some positive news from the doctors in the past few days.  Nothing certain but he may be cleared to play football again.  He would probably do well to return to Clemson and play and prove he can handle it, but on the other hand, he might want to declare and get a contract signed now rather than risk getting nothing if things don't go well.

Can't control any of that, but if he does enter the draft, he might be a really nice piece to put back with Lawrence.  Healthy, he's an absolute monster.  Given all the uncertainty, I have no idea where he'd go, but it could be one of the most intriguing questions in the draft.

[David Harris]

What about Bateman if he’s there?

[Wonderboy]

On 12/14/2020 at 11:58 PM, David Harris said:

What about Bateman if he’s there?

Many mocks have Pats taking Pitts or Bateman. Their situation at WR is as bad as ours was last year. But don’t they need a QB? That has to be their priority. 

[GREENBEAN]

On 12/14/2020 at 1:43 PM, JiF said:

I dont think so, I'd love it though.  TL/Devonta first round is potentially franchise changing. 

If the QB's (we spoke of this) become a first rd commodity then it's gonna push one of Devonta Smith, Rashod Bateman, Rondale Moore or Jamar Chase down a ways. It's gonna be hard to see all 4 of them going before pick 26 or so. Especially with the QB blood feast thats possible.  

I wonder what the combine will look like this year. 

[PepPep]

I don't see a top WR like D.Smith fall that far and if he doesn't I don't think the Jets should be reaching for a WR. They NEED to take a top O-lineman. Sure, if a top Edge or CB prospect falls, yes, take one of them, how can you pass. BUT the focus needs to be on O-line. We have Becton and Fant was solid but pretty much everyone else struggled on the O-line this year. We haven't seen Clark so he's a huge question mark. Draft a top C like Humphrey or a top G like W.Davis or tackle like Cosmi out of Texas. Just plug those guys in. There should be plenty of options. 

I know people want a WR and a RB early but the Jets really need to fix the O-line and have a HUGE need at CB and Edge. Don't be surprised if they don't address WR until Rd. 3 after taking Mims in Rd. 2 last year. Don't be surprised if they don't take a RB until Rd. 4 or 5 after taking Perine in Rd. 3 last year.  

[BCJet]

On 12/14/2020 at 6:37 PM, derp said:

I throw weight out there a lot as a criteria for WR's - it's not something we think about a lot but in a physical league with smaller catch windows and more contested plays, physical strength is important for WR's and it is at least partially represented by weight.

Smith is listed at 175 pounds. It will be interesting to see how he actually weighs in, because while it may not seem insanely light for a first round WR prospect, it is.

I looked back the last ten years for kicks. The only WR's to be lighter than that and be drafted in the first round were Marquise Brown and Tavon Austin - both of whom were insanely fast, Brown did not run due to injury and Austin ran 4.34. Brown also went 25th, Austin 8th (in a weak draft).

Of the other wide receivers under 190 pounds drafted in the first round over the last ten years: all were also extremely fast, none of the other receivers were even under 180 pounds at the combine, and most were drafted in the latter portion of the first round too. The exception was John Ross who was drafted 9th after setting the combine 40 record.

Otherwise you've got Brandin Cooks who was drafted 20th, ran 4.33, and was 189 - Phillip Dorsett who was drafted 29th, ran 4.33, and was 185 - Will Fuller who was drafted 21st, ran 4.32, and was 186 - Calvin Ridley who was drafted 26th, ran 4.43, and was 189.

Moral of the story is guys who are light don't go in the first round a ton. And when they do, they're fast, and don't go that early. Only two went before the 20th pick, and all but one who ran 40's ran sub 4.35.

I'm not sure Smith is *that* fast - I think he profiles more closely to Ridley - and again the lighter profile just isn't what the NFL does early in drafts.

Not saying it's right, not saying the trend continues. But Smith's draft profile is going to be really unique and his stock will be extremely interesting to follow this draft season.

Interesting research and thoughts.

Matt Miller posted some WR stuff the other day and said this years class will be similar to 2020 in that there will be WR talent in the 2nd/3rd round.  I also wonder if some WRs will get pushed down simply because so many teams hit on a WR in the 2020 draft they may look to fill a different need.

I personally dont think we need to reach on an OL with our first 3 picks.  McGovern and Fant weren't great, but when we have an actual coach, the OL play will improve.  I think we look to use mid round picks on OL to continue to develop.  Guys like Zion Johnson (BC guard), Tyler Linderbaum (Iowa center) will likely be available with our 3rd round pick and present a lot of value.  

I know its not popular, but either our seattle pick or our 2nd rounder will  be an edge rusher which everyone should be fine with.  We NEED to get faster on defense and the only way to do that is to use your premium picks on Edge.  

I also think that while RBs shouldn't be picked in the top 5, drafting a RB in the first round can be a smart move.  Najee Harris is a very player in that he is huge for a RB but is also a good WR.  He likely won't make it to the second round so if JD pulls the trigger on him with the seattle pick I wouldn't hate it.

Lawerence - Najee - Joseph Ossai as our top 3 would be great in my opinion.

[PepPep]

4 hours ago, BCJet said:

I personally dont think we need to reach on an OL with our first 3 picks.  McGovern and Fant weren't great, but when we have an actual coach, the OL play will improve.  I think we look to use mid round picks on OL to continue to develop.  Guys like Zion Johnson (BC guard), Tyler Linderbaum (Iowa center) will likely be available with our 3rd round pick and present a lot of value.  

I know its not popular, but either our seattle pick or our 2nd rounder will  be an edge rusher which everyone should be fine with.  We NEED to get faster on defense and the only way to do that is to use your premium picks on Edge.  

I also think that while RBs shouldn't be picked in the top 5, drafting a RB in the first round can be a smart move.  Najee Harris is a very player in that he is huge for a RB but is also a good WR.  He likely won't make it to the second round so if JD pulls the trigger on him with the seattle pick I wouldn't hate it.

Lawerence - Najee - Joseph Ossai as our top 3 would be great in my opinion.

Can't say I agree with this. I just think we need to complete the O-line rebuild ASAP and we can't rely on a coach coming in and coaching up mid-late draft picks into starting roles. I want at least one blue chip prospect who can come right in and start in TL's rookie season, filling a hole up front. Nothing against Zion or Linderbaum. I also have nothing against going after an Edge. It just depends on who is available. I know a lot of people like Ossai but I also like Quincy Roche who has a ton of pass rush moves, its great to watch him attack the O-line. 

Drafting a RB is dicey. The Jets have a ton of needs. It really depends on how FA shakes out. Like I said, I'd like  a top interior O-lineman or Edge (maybe CB?) with that Seattle pick. I think you can get fantastic value there.  Then with the 2nd round pick, if the Jets have addressed WR in FA (lets say they have gotten Robinson) and no quality Edge is there (assuming they took an O-lineman with Seattles pick) yeah, go ahead and take a RB but even then. how about CB? How about Friermuth? Just so many needs that taking a RB seems absurd so early. 

[nycdan]

When debating OL vs. RB in terms of which provides  more overall value, I can't help but think of teams like DEN in the late 90s-early 2000s.  We thought Terrell Davis was all that.  Then  Olandis Gary, then Mike Anderson, then Clinton Portis.  one after another, they had thousand-yard rushers doing really well there.  So were they lucky enough to find four great RBs in a row, or did they have a great system and O-Line? 

Anecdotally, look at what happened to Zeke Elliot's game when the Cowboys O-Line got decimated.  He went from top-3 RB to below average.  Yes, he's around 8th in yards because he runs all the time, but his 3.9 Y/A average is 39th in the NFL.

The thing I like about focusing more on the O-Line is that they tend to be more durable than RBs and your offense doesn't go up in smoke with a single injury.  Backups can come in and be very good.  Plus if you can improve your pass blocking at the same time, that's an extra bonus.  We need a good rushing attack, but the focus of this team with Trevor is going to be passing.  This will not and can not be a ground and pound team (another reason why Gase has got to go and Rex can't be the old/new guy).

 

[Greenseed4]

Kadarius Toney is going to be very very good in this league. 

[derp]

I was watching some Smith highlights today trying to figure out who he reminds me of since I really haven’t seen any comparisons I like, and it clicked, and it’s really weird.

He reminds me of Mikal Bridges, the Phoenix Suns’ small forward who was on Villanova’s 2016 and 2018 championship teams.

Obviously two completely different sports and Bridges is way taller. But they move similarly, definitely have overlap in the way they run, they’re both all arms and legs physically, and both are relatively unbothered by physicality in a way that belies their gangly, skinny physiques. 

Smith is honestly one of the most interesting prospects I’ve seen come into the draft in the now 20+ years I’ve been following it (how sad is that?). His numbers last year were absolutely insane. He comes from an Alabama program that’s basically been a WR factory. He’s so skinny that there’s a really straightforward case for him not working out. But it doesn’t really bother him on the field and despite being so skinny he’s really good at making plays off the ground in contested situations which is often one of my issues with Bama pass catchers (Cooper, Jeudy, and OJ Howard were all on the ground separators only - I think Ridley too but I’m not as firm on that).

[Paradis]

22 hours ago, derp said:

I was watching some Smith highlights today trying to figure out who he reminds me of since I really haven’t seen any comparisons I like, and it clicked, and it’s really weird.

He reminds me of Mikal Bridges, the Phoenix Suns’ small forward who was on Villanova’s 2016 and 2018 championship teams.

Obviously two completely different sports and Bridges is way taller. But they move similarly, definitely have overlap in the way they run, they’re both all arms and legs physically, and both are relatively unbothered by physicality in a way that belies their gangly, skinny physiques. 

Smith is honestly one of the most interesting prospects I’ve seen come into the draft in the now 20+ years I’ve been following it (how sad is that?). His numbers last year were absolutely insane. He comes from an Alabama program that’s basically been a WR factory. He’s so skinny that there’s a really straightforward case for him not working out. But it doesn’t really bother him on the field and despite being so skinny he’s really good at making plays off the ground in contested situations which is often one of my issues with Bama pass catchers (Cooper, Jeudy, and OJ Howard were all on the ground separators only - I think Ridley too but I’m not as firm on that).

Isaac Bruce. Until his frame becomes an issue, i'm not holding it against him. It's not been a problem thus far. 

[section314]

1 hour ago, Paradis said:

Isaac Bruce. Until his frame becomes an issue, i'm not holding it against him. It's not been a problem thus far. 

Santana Moss. Still think Moss was one of our best picks.

[derp]

1 hour ago, Paradis said:

Isaac Bruce. Until his frame becomes an issue, i'm not holding it against him. It's not been a problem thus far. 

Eh, I agree with you a lot but less so here. 

I actually Bruce was more built and more of an on the ground guy than Smith. Parallels some of the other receivers to come out of Bama in my opinion. I prefer my weird cross sport comparison ? I imagine it won’t make sense to most - if it is even right - since I doubt many folks have watched as much Bridges as I have. I also think it gets back to Smith being unique as a prospect which I firmly believe.

And I *think* that Smith will be fine but I also believe the frame is a very valid concern. Part of the draft is projecting guys to a different level. In this case there’s a lot more strength in DB’s along with smaller windows and more contested plays at the pro level. I don’t think the “if it’s been fine so far” argument works when it comes to the draft since you are making the projection.

Like I said, I think he’ll be fine and a really good pro. But if he’s not good for some reason I think it’s basically a lock that when we look at why it’ll come back to his frame - either dealing with contested plays or being continually banged up. 

[Paradis]

6 hours ago, derp said:

Eh, I agree with you a lot but less so here. 

I actually Bruce was more built and more of an on the ground guy than Smith. Parallels some of the other receivers to come out of Bama in my opinion. I prefer my weird cross sport comparison ? I imagine it won’t make sense to most - if it is even right - since I doubt many folks have watched as much Bridges as I have. I also think it gets back to Smith being unique as a prospect which I firmly believe.

And I *think* that Smith will be fine but I also believe the frame is a very valid concern. Part of the draft is projecting guys to a different level. In this case there’s a lot more strength in DB’s along with smaller windows and more contested plays at the pro level. I don’t think the “if it’s been fine so far” argument works when it comes to the draft since you are making the projection.

Like I said, I think he’ll be fine and a really good pro. But if he’s not good for some reason I think it’s basically a lock that when we look at why it’ll come back to his frame - either dealing with contested plays or being continually banged up. 

Manning used to throw Harrison open (who Smith is often compared to). Or at least hit him on timing routes where he needed to be hit. Similar skill set to Bruce. Unlike, however,  Mike Evans - who profiles as a big play jump ball artist in addition to his physical ability to get those contested balls.... You’re not throwing smith those Evans “go get it” balls... ftr I think Bruce was 170 his rookie year 

What I meant by “it hasn’t been a problem for him yet” was I think he’s a special talent and that if his frame hasn’t held him back yet that I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise. Certainly there’s lots of receivers who are successful at college but their game doesn’t translate. 

[derp]

2 hours ago, Paradis said:

Manning used to throw Harrison open. Or at least hit him on timing routes where he needed to be hit. It’s Mike Evans caliber skill set. You’re not throwing smith “go get it” balls... ftr I think Bruce was 170 his rookie year 

What I meant by “it hasn’t been a problem for him yet” was I think he’s a special talent and that if his frame hasn’t held him back yet that I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise. Certainly there’s lots of receivers who are successful at college but their game doesn’t translate. 

You lost me man. You just switched from Isaac Bruce to Marvin Harrison, then said it IS the Mike Evans skill set, then went back to Bruce being 170 which is kind of diametrically opposed to Mike Evans’ skill set. I also kind of think Smith isn’t an on the ground guy with his length and that’s kind of the point I was making earlier. I don’t think he’s Megatron but he’s also not Crowder.

I get the benefit of the doubt, I’m in the same place, but he’s a completely different prospect if he’s 220 - no? It’s something you can say I think will be okay but it’s I think, not I know, and there’s a difference.

[Paradis]

3 hours ago, derp said:

You lost me man. You just switched from Isaac Bruce to Marvin Harrison, then said it IS the Mike Evans skill set, then went back to Bruce being 170 which is kind of diametrically opposed to Mike Evans’ skill set. I also kind of think Smith isn’t an on the ground guy with his length and that’s kind of the point I was making earlier. I don’t think he’s Megatron but he’s also not Crowder.

I get the benefit of the doubt, I’m in the same place, but he’s a completely different prospect if he’s 220 - no? It’s something you can say I think will be okay but it’s I think, not I know, and there’s a difference.

Gawd. For one I was distracted, but regalrdess still fcking Best words, especially when I meant to say isnt like Mike Evans   
 

I cleaned it up 

[Philc1]

On 12/20/2020 at 5:13 AM, Greenseed4 said:

Kadarius Toney is going to be very very good in this league. 

Pick 23

[Philc1]

On 2/9/2021 at 10:55 PM, derp said:

You lost me man. You just switched from Isaac Bruce to Marvin Harrison, then said it IS the Mike Evans skill set, then went back to Bruce being 170 which is kind of diametrically opposed to Mike Evans’ skill set. I also kind of think Smith isn’t an on the ground guy with his length and that’s kind of the point I was making earlier. I don’t think he’s Megatron but he’s also not Crowder.

I get the benefit of the doubt, I’m in the same place, but he’s a completely different prospect if he’s 220 - no? It’s something you can say I think will be okay but it’s I think, not I know, and there’s a difference.

Best comparison is Marvin Harrison.  Devonta Smith is a fantastic route runner and has great hands

 

He and Sewell are really who the Jets should be considering at 2

[derp]

28 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

Best comparison is Marvin Harrison.  Devonta Smith is a fantastic route runner and has great hands

 

He and Sewell are really who the Jets should be considering at 2

I don’t think the Harrison comparison is good. Totally different body types and different play styles as well. 

[Greenseed4]

1 hour ago, Philc1 said:

Pick 23

And if we get Pitts at 6 or 8 (after a trade down) we could replicate the Florida weapon-set that made Kyle Trask look like a pro bowler  (4,200 yards, 43 TDs, 8 INTs). 

[JetFanatic]

On 12/14/2020 at 12:46 PM, JXN_JET said:

Anyway he falls to us at 25? I see him as a top 15 pick but if he somehow falls, he has to be this pick. Dude catches everything thrown his way. 

There is no way he is falling out of the top 7. At all. 

[Philc1]

On 2/15/2021 at 4:20 PM, Greenseed4 said:

And if we get Pitts at 6 or 8 (after a trade down) we could replicate the Florida weapon-set that made Kyle Trask look like a pro bowler  (4,200 yards, 43 TDs, 8 INTs). 

It’s a deep WR draft.  I’d rather just stay at 2 and 23 then wait for whatever top WR falls to 23 probably Moore or Bateman

 

I like Pitts but really consider him to be a WR.  We can still trade for Zach Ertz or sign Hunter Henry to be the TE

[Philc1]

On 2/15/2021 at 3:13 PM, derp said:

I don’t think the Harrison comparison is good. Totally different body types and different play styles as well. 

Harrison was 6’0 185. Smith is 6’1 175.  It’s fairly similar.  Neither guy will blow people away with size or speed but their route running and hands are off the charts

[derp]

1 hour ago, Philc1 said:

Harrison was 6’0 185. Smith is 6’1 175.  It’s fairly similar.  Neither guy will blow people away with size or speed but their route running and hands are off the charts

I’m looking at a little more than size and speed. The play style is very different.

[Philc1]

18 hours ago, derp said:

I’m looking at a little more than size and speed. The play style is very different.

How so?

[derp]

2 hours ago, Philc1 said:

How so?

Smith’s strides are completely different so he runs routes very differently. More importantly, he uses his length to make plays off the ground. Harrison was very much an on the ground player. Other Bama guys (Jeudy, Cooper) were more similar to Harrison in that regard coming out.