Joe Douglas and last year's draft

[GREENBEAN]

On 1/24/2021 at 3:17 AM, BurnleyJet said:

The Perine I didn’t like, one thing you don’t need is a pedestrian Running back. He’s to slow, and I can see him out or kept as a specials player. When I look at the 49ers, I can see very fast running back who can break a big run. I don’t see that in Perine. Ty Johnson looks quick and can catch a ball too, he’s a keeper.

This is the same stuff said about Mostert not too long ago.  I'd give Perine a little bit more time before labeling him one way or the other.  His game speed is fine and much faster than his recorded 40x.  He's a baller and will be one of the guys who benefit from Gase's departure. Just like Herndon most likely. 

[DetroitRed]

4 hours ago, Irish Jet said:

Tampa, comfortably. Wirfs and Winfield are two of the best in the league already.

San Diego, Cincy, Washington, KC, Minnesota, Pittsburgh all with multiple starters playing at a very high level. Creative higher than Mims.

Mac seems to have obliterated expectations on this place because it is ridiculous how overrated this draft class is. Just seeing guys on the field seems to be enough for some people. Becton was by a mile the best player which you’d expect for #11 and if you were going tackle that you couldn’t miss with Wirfs available anyways.

This is wrong.  Because of One player on the bengals and chargers? Nope.   The Jets have more starters than the Steelers 

[More Cowbell]

You lost me when you started plugging Our Lads and called the lead guy a religious man.

[LIJetsFan]

With no TC and no pre-season some teams still managed to get more production out of their draft class than we did.  However, our roster had major CS & QB deficits.  IMHO jury is still out on this class.    

[Irish Jet]

52 minutes ago, DetroitRed said:

This is wrong.  Because of One player on the bengals and chargers? Nope.   The Jets have more starters than the Steelers 

Franchise QB’s are worth more. They just are. But that’s irrelevant - Kenneth Murray and Tee Higgins done far more than anyone not named Becton. Far better draft classes. No non Jets fan would argue otherwise.

Getting starters isn’t reflective of the quality of the draft class so much as it is the quality of team. Bryce Hall probably doesn’t start for any other team in the league. 

 

 

[Matt39]

1 hour ago, DetroitRed said:

This is wrong.  Because of One player on the bengals and chargers? Nope.   The Jets have more starters than the Steelers 

I mean Justin Herbert had the greatest rookie QB season ever so yeah that's going to count for more. Douglas' first class looked below average after year one...too many injuries and not enough production, especially considering this was a 2 win team, and the barrier for playing time wasnt overly tough.

[Waka Flocka Flacco]

2 hours ago, GREENBEAN said:

This is the same stuff said about Mostert not too long ago.

Please provide a single example of anybody ever saying Mostert is too slow.

[kmnj]

his free agents sucked

his draft sucked-one good player is not a good draft-now if mims develops that can change but he sucked last year with zero tds no matter what the joe d and mims fan boys say-

I like the new coach hire so I will give joe some props there

If Joe gets Watson without giving up too much I will sing his praises

If Joe gets a real WR FA to come hear like Arob or Godwin-I will sing his praises

so far the book on joe is he was the gm of the second worst team in football and made his roster much worse last year

[#27TheDominator]

3 hours ago, Matt39 said:

I mean Justin Herbert had the greatest rookie QB season ever so yeah that's going to count for more. Douglas' first class looked below average after year one...too many injuries and not enough production, especially considering this was a 2 win team, and the barrier for playing time wasnt overly tough.

To be fair, Herbert was gone before we picked.  I think the Mims trade was based on him playing the draft and that I like.  He probably saw Higgins, PIttman and Shenault off the board with Claypool, Jefferson and Mims still there and figured he was safe moving down.  I'm not sure who he rated where, but I appreciate keeping that kind of thing in your eval.   Singing the praises of this draft seems too much like being all pro Idzik going into 2014, but it is certainly too early to give up on the class.  There is still plenty of potential.  OTOH, in January 2017 plenty of people were still saying Hackenberg had potential.

[Shockwave]

4 hours ago, Matt39 said:

I mean Justin Herbert had the greatest rookie QB season ever so yeah that's going to count for more. Douglas' first class looked below average after year one...too many injuries and not enough production, especially considering this was a 2 win team, and the barrier for playing time wasnt overly tough.

This was on the coach - Not the GM. Frank Gore was started over Kenyon Drake as well. 

Whomever is trying to overly judge our rookie class please go make yourself a nice bourbon sit down and watch some Quinnen Williams highlights. Let's judge these guys next year when they are in a normal coaching environment. 

[clayton163v]

On 1/23/2021 at 11:05 PM, 32EBoozer said:

It took time to post a novel as the OP!!

Lord I hope you didn’t type this with your thumbs on your phone!

Not with my thumbs, lol.

I can type as fast as I can speak.  A lost art I am afraid.  I learned on a manual typewriter and perfected it on a Kaypro II with a Wordstart word processor.  Horse and buggy era of computing . . .

[clayton163v]

On 1/23/2021 at 11:43 PM, Shockwave said:

Firstly - Thank you OP for taking the time to write that. It was a good read my man. 

Personally I think we saw an Ozzie Newsom disciple plain and simple that did a very good job but fine tuning was obviously needed. 

Some Notes:

1. We didn't have a long term scheme so hard to fault him for a few of these tweener guys. 

2. He prepared for Jamal's exit in the draft. Excellent. 

3. He prioritized the important positions. 

4. He put youth almost everywhere. 

5. The Mim's pick was pure brilliance. 

6. He moved up and down the draft board like a Damn Boss. Best in the league. 

7. He acquired many extra picks. 

8. He killed the Bryce Hall Pick. 

The guy has absolutely Studly upside for a GM. I think he needs to fine tune a few things which heavily involves drafting players specifically for our new scheme. It will be much easier to judge him now that we are in a long term scheme with a coach of his choosing. 

When your team is 2-14 it usually all looks bad. I think when we are closer to .500 next year it will be easier to judge individual picks but the concepts deployed, strategies and values the guy got were TOP NOTCH. 

Very excited to have Douglas as our GM

I do not know how to respond to each sentence in your post.  So I will try to guide my response.  Sorry for the lack of site dexterity. 

As for #2, I think he was taking the BAP.  I think Jamal did not want to resign with us and forced his way off the team.  I do not think Joe wanted him gone.

As for #5, I totally agree.  The Mims pick still astounds me.  I would have over-payed.

As for #6, yes and we received fair compensation.  We did not get ripped off or try to shakedown other teams ala Idzik.

As for the "new scheme" I have my doubts that we will switch to a one-gap based 4-3 defense.  All teams run multiple looks nowadays but we have too much 3-4 personnel to just switch entirely.  I think we took Zuniga because he was the last bonafide pass rusher left on the board.  While there were others, they did not carry a high grade.  The upside for Zuniga is Justin Tuck.  Let's hope so.  

I too am excited to have Douglas.  This is the first draft in many years where I did not have serious misgivings on our GM based on publicly available information.

[clayton163v]

On 1/24/2021 at 12:31 AM, GREENBEAN said:

Good post man. 

But I'mm unfamiliar with this term "On the card deal". What is that exactly?  Can you elaborate in some detail for me?  

I am referring to the trade chart card pioneered by the former Cowboy's coach Jerry Johnson.  I posted it on another thread, it is easy to find.  Ourlads has a typical one.  It assigns a point value for each pick which enables both sides to fairly evaluate a proposed trade offer.  When you calculate the points on this year's trades - including the possible move up from #11 to #9 fair compensation was on the table.  Too many of our previous GMs paid too much to move up or lost their nerve and accepted too little when moving down.  The Patriots trade - where we moved down from the late three - is a good example.  To balance the deal, the Patriots had to include a 6th round pick this season in addition to the two fourths.  That shows Douglas was counting the points. 

 

[clayton163v]

On 1/24/2021 at 8:49 AM, FidelioJet said:

That's the part of it that worries me about that pick.  It should have been very obvious to JD that he was simply too slow to be anything more than a jag at the NFL level. 

I wanted a guy would contribute even if he was on the bench and would earn a second contract because he can play special teams.  Look at the tight end Daniel Brown.  We have carried him on the roster for two years now and he is just a special teams player.  Perine offers depth since he is a complete back and was a proved performer on special teams in college. 

We could have taken McFarland who carried a third-round grade and has flashed for the Steelers.   Good value.  But he lacks the power to run between the tackles, play special teams or pass protect.  He also fumbled a lot in college.  It was predictable that he would be productive if he did not implode.  But the Steelers were reloading.  The Jets have a hollowed out roster and have to pick players who will contribute for years and offer three-down versatility if we have to send them into the game.  Which is what happened.  In short, we were not good enough to take a chance on a guy like McFarland.  Perine fills the need for a committee back and will be a steady contributor. 

 

[clayton163v]

On 1/24/2021 at 9:19 AM, NYJ1 said:

I'm most looking forward to the upcoming draft. I'm thinking with so much draft capital and the opportunity to trade down and rake in that much more picks? This could be a draft changes this team for the next 4 to 6 years. It's exciting to watch a talented professional like JD build this team. It's fun to be guessing when chemistry comes together and this team officially turns the corner and becomes a force to be reckoned with. My guess is assuming this draft is the watershed of talent I think it will be, some time next season the light comes on and the team becomes much better.

I too would love to trade down.  And it is a clear two-player draft at the top too.  

Sadly, I am not bullish on our prospects.  One look at the trade card shows that it is very costly to move into the #2 slot.  The best fit is the Bengals.  But it would cost them 900 points.  That is this year's 2, 3, 4 and 5 (896 points).  I cannot see them doing it.  It is just too much compensation.  Remember, future picks are valued at the average points rounded down a full round.  Thus, next year's 2nd is only worth 190 points instead of the 420 points it would be worth if it was this year's 16th pick in the second round.   Those are steep discounts fellas.

 https://www.ourlads.com/nfldraftvalue/

It is why I think Joe will take the OT Sowell unless he receives an on-the-card offer.  I wish I believed otherwise, but I do not. 

[JetBlue]

On 1/23/2021 at 4:31 AM, BornJetsFan1983 said:

Good post, I liked reading your perspective, this class if draft picks does seem much better than pretty much every draft we have had for like a decade.

I am looking forward to the next two and what joe plans to do this year. I think he trades back.

Not to mention that now they will actually get some NFL coaching to help the all reach their potential.  I still can't believe how horrible Gase was..

[clayton163v]

17 hours ago, #27TheDominator said:

I don't know. 

I liked the Clark pick.  I get that you like ourlads, but I don't see how one draft guide having a guy as a 6th makes him overdrafted.  He was one of the more intriguing later round tackle prospects from what I read.  If your GM is going to just follow the guides, what is the point?  So far Clark has not worked out, but time will tell. 

 

Yes he was one of the late round tackle prospects.  But my point was that there were starting guards with 2nd and 3rd round grades available.  We needed the starting guard badly imo.  Still do.

[clayton163v]

On 1/24/2021 at 6:38 PM, PepPep said:

I think JD/Jets Brass actually really liked the upside of Clark. You make it sound like they just drafted him because he was friends with Becton, lol. Maybe he was 'over-drafted' but his tape shows him absolutely dominating in college, even though its conference USA. He is versatile, a great leader, he fits the mold of an NFL Guard who can move over to RT in a jiffy if needed. Even as backups, those guys are crucial. I think Gase stuck with the vets and the Jets had a plethora of interior linemen veterans so Clark was buried. Maybe under a different coach or under different circumstances he would have gotten a chance. I think Jets are high on Clark and he will have a shot to compete for a starting spot next year if he shows up to camp in shape and ready to compete. Right now nobody has a stranglehold on either G position. Elflein played well but he's a FA and struggled in pass protection.  

Sorry you are correct.  I did leave that impression and I too am hopeful about Clark.

In my post I was trying to show how Douglas kept to value throughout the draft.  With the Clark choice, he departed from that strategy and I wanted to make that clear.

I failed to make clear that he is a solid prospect who offers inside-out versatility in the league.  You are correct that he is a prospect at right tackle and that makes him more valuable than a guard-only player.  It is my hope too that he seizes a starting job. 

But I do stand by my point that there were guard-only players with much higher grades available.  Further, they became starters.  Of the six guards that carried a 2nd or 3rd round grade, only one - Damian Lewis - was taken at his graded spot (Seahawks).   The others went later.  But Bradeson carried a 2nd round grade (Ravens - late 4th); Shane Lemieux carried a 3rd round grade (Giants - early 5th); and Michael Onwenu carried a 3rd round grade (Patriots - early 6th).  These are all starting caliber prospects, were all available and all seized starting jobs.  Onwenu even started every game at right tackle for the Patriots.  Clark may indeed prove to be the better choice at the end of the day.  But the Clark/Becton relationship made the pick imo.  Becton HAS to work out.  If Clark helps him do that, then it is money well-spent.   

But I too think Clark as a bright future but he still carried a 6th round grade. 

At least we were not the Fins.  They took Robert Hunt at #39 overall and he carried a 5th round grade.  He was not good either, but they did hit on Solomon Kindley in the fourth which is where he was rated.  They were a better team when he was healthy.  

Altogether there were eight starting guards in this draft. 

[clayton163v]

17 hours ago, Irish Jet said:

Tampa, comfortably. Wirfs and Winfield are two of the best in the league already.

San Diego, Cincy, Washington, KC, Minnesota, Pittsburgh all with multiple starters playing at a very high level. Creative higher than Mims.

Mac seems to have obliterated expectations on this place because it is ridiculous how overrated this draft class is. Just seeing guys on the field seems to be enough for some people. Becton was by a mile the best player which you’d expect for #11 and if you were going tackle that you couldn’t miss with Wirfs available anyways.

If the guys we threw to the wolves were busts, they would have forced us to play veterans.  Instead, they held their own.  In the case of Becton, Mims and Hall, they more than held their own.  Be happy with three solid starters.  It is more than you are going to get out of most drafts.  Usually the veteran on the street is better than your picks.  It was an excellent draft. 

Name a better Jet draft?

[clayton163v]

13 hours ago, GREENBEAN said:

This is the same stuff said about Mostert not too long ago.  I'd give Perine a little bit more time before labeling him one way or the other.  His game speed is fine and much faster than his recorded 40x.  He's a baller and will be one of the guys who benefit from Gase's departure. Just like Herndon most likely. 

And better play from the offense line and wideouts.  The difference in the offense with Mims and without Mims was night and day.

[clayton163v]

12 hours ago, More Cowbell said:

You lost me when you started plugging Our Lads and called the lead guy a religious man.

I am not a religious man.  As for Dan Shonka, I have been reading his stuff for years.  I get the distinct impression that he is a Shriner.  If so, he is a religious man. 

If you recommend a better draft guide, please, do tell.

[clayton163v]

12 hours ago, LIJetsFan said:

With no TC and no pre-season some teams still managed to get more production out of their draft class than we did.  However, our roster had major CS & QB deficits.  IMHO jury is still out on this class.    

Absolutely true.  We were 2-14 after all. 

But we did play better football in the second half of the season.  Who among us really believed that we were going to go winless towards the end of the year.  I did not.  We were clearly playing better football.  That was due to the rookies supplanting the Colts castoffs at corner.  Mims at wideout and the fine play of Huff.  Even the safety Davis appeared to have the light go on towards the end of the year until he got hurt.

Is the jury still out on the class?  Yes.  But there were no busts and lots of reason for hope.  Remember, if the rookie cannot hold their own, the league tears them apart.

 

[More Cowbell]

2 hours ago, clayton163v said:

I am not a religious man.  As for Dan Shonka, I have been reading his stuff for years.  I get the distinct impression that he is a Shriner.  If so, he is a religious man. 

If you recommend a better draft guide, please, do tell.

I recommend  you talk more about the draft and less about trivial  facts .

[varjet]

3 hours ago, clayton163v said:

Altogether there were eight starting guards in this draft. 

Taking Morgan and/or Perine over a starting guard was a mistake, in my opinion.