Would you do this trade?

[Mark78]

On 4/9/2021 at 5:26 PM, Beerfish said:

Tempting but the Seattle pick could easily be higher than the Jets pick next year.

But they have Jamal 

[MichaelScott]

On 4/9/2021 at 5:01 PM, Patriot Killa said:

Would you consider exchanging premium picks next year for premium talent this year? 
We know JD would like to move back up into the top 10 from #23 to acquire another big impact offensive player for Wilson to pair with. Kyle Pitts, Sewell, Ja’Marr Chase??

We know ATL wants move out of 4, How comfortable would you be giving:

ATL: #23 overall,  #66 overall(3rd Rd Pick), 2022 1st rounder (Seahawks), 2022 3rd pick.

Jets: 4th Overall

ATL’s 4th overall selection holds a weighted value of 1800. the 23rd pick is 760, the 66th is 260, = 1,020.

Seattle’s 2022 1st should be weighted around the same or possibly a bit better. (760-780 range), that puts you right at about 1780-ish, the 2022 3rd should cap off the equal value.

We wouldn’t be giving up any of our 2nd rounders this year or next, We’d be parting with one of our 1st rounders next offseason, but you’d be making the sacrifice to go get a prospect like the 3 offensive skill position players mentioned at the top, who is probably going to be better than the guy sitting at Seattle’s pick next year. 
 

This trade scenario is not for the weak hearted. It’s a gusty move but it’s a move to secure a huge weapon that can help right now in Wilson’s rookie season, as well as a premium talent he can grow with for years to come.

I'm not against it at all in order to provide the new QB with as much talent around him as possible. As of now we've upgraded a WR spot, but as a unit its still not a strength by any means, and our oline as a whole is still a huge weakness. Right now we are still looking at a roster where at the end of the year, the talking point is going to be how the rookie QB was thrown on the field with no protection and subpar weapons. 

I know we still have the draft, but that's my point. Right now we aren't much improved from what Sam had to work with. That puts a ton of pressure on these draft picks to be players that can produce right away. So to your original point, yes, I would trade future capital to put more talent around the new QB immediately. We put all our eggs in the basket of this new QB. I don't want to waste a single year of this QBs development by putting him in a position where he is running for his life and throwing to players that would be backups on other teams. 

Never thought I'd say this, but they need to do exactly what the Bills did. Draft a QB and immediately upgrade the pieces around him and prioritize that every year. If the Jets had drafted Josh Allen, he'd have the same result as Sam (if not worse)

[Jet2020]

2 hours ago, Patriot Killa said:

Darnold isn’t a good player & Leo had a huge year, otherwise, he’s been very so-so getting home on the sack & making a real impact. Jamal Adams forced his way out and is strictly a one dimensional.

I’m much happier with the picks than the players. We were 4-12 & 2-14 when all three were here. 

Like it or not, those players are still worth plenty of picks. 

[MichaelScott]

30 minutes ago, MichaelScott said:

I'm not against it at all in order to provide the new QB with as much talent around him as possible. As of now we've upgraded a WR spot, but as a unit its still not a strength by any means, and our oline as a whole is still a huge weakness. Right now we are still looking at a roster where at the end of the year, the talking point is going to be how the rookie QB was thrown on the field with no protection and subpar weapons. 

I know we still have the draft, but that's my point. Right now we aren't much improved from what Sam had to work with. That puts a ton of pressure on these draft picks to be players that can produce right away. So to your original point, yes, I would trade future capital to put more talent around the new QB immediately. We put all our eggs in the basket of this new QB. I don't want to waste a single year of this QBs development by putting him in a position where he is running for his life and throwing to players that would be backups on other teams. 

Never thought I'd say this, but they need to do exactly what the Bills did. Draft a QB and immediately upgrade the pieces around him and prioritize that every year. If the Jets had drafted Josh Allen, he'd have the same result as Sam (if not worse)

@Patriot Killa

That being said... When it comes to JD giving up picks in a trade, I'll believe it when I see it. Even if its a realistic trade that makes all the sense in the world (as opposed to the insane Madden trades we talk about here) I just can't picture JD pulling the trigger. Every single move he has made the last 2 years has been to collect more draft capital. I think JD has the philosophies that he believes in and he is going to live and die by them. I think he believes in his drafting ability too much to pursue trade ups. We would all love to get back into the top of the 1st round for a shot at one of those top prospects. I think JD thinks in terms of getting contribution from 1 player, versus 3 players. 

Obviously I have no idea what JD actually thinks. But after every move he's made the last 2 years, I just can't picture a trade up until I see one ??‍♂️

[MichaelScott]

On 4/9/2021 at 5:26 PM, Beerfish said:

Tempting but the Seattle pick could easily be higher than the Jets pick next year.

Not sure that I would go that far, but there is definitely reason to believe that it could very well be higher than their pick this year. 

[MichaelScott]

On 4/9/2021 at 6:33 PM, choon328 said:

To me the trade up partner would most likely be Carolina at 8. 

1(23)

3(66)

2022 2nd rd pick (Jets)

2022 4th rd pick (Jets)

That makes sense for both teams bc the Panthers are in no man's land without a QB need or a skill position need. It gives them back a 2nd and 4th for next year and gives them an extra early 3rd.

This would leave the Jets with 1 3rd in 2021 and still 1 2nd and 1 4th in 2022. It makes sense for both teams. 

 

Is basically the Darnold, 23rd overall for 8 deal the Jets wanted but with a 3rd round addition. If Pitts, Chase or Smith get to 8 I could see JD pulling the trigger.

I tend to think that if a trade up to 8 was realistic, it probably would have happened in the deal for Sam. 

I guess you can make the case that they would wait until draft day and see who falls to 8 before pulling the trigger. Idk. Like I've said before, I just can't picture JD trading up until I see it happen. 

[Patriot Killa]

13 hours ago, Jet2020 said:

Like it or not, those players are still worth plenty of picks. 

No they aren’t. We squeezed all we could get out of Carolina for Darnold. If you think anything different, I have some news for you.

you’re wrong.

[Jet2020]

4 hours ago, Patriot Killa said:

No they aren’t. We squeezed all we could get out of Carolina for Darnold. If you think anything different, I have some news for you.

you’re wrong.

Sam Darnold’s worth is whatever the Panthers paid for him. Basic economics. 

[Fantasy Island]

Heck yes, you do this then you get Sewell or Slater.  I like this proposal.

[Maxman]

On 4/9/2021 at 5:01 PM, Patriot Killa said:

Would you consider exchanging premium picks next year for premium talent this year? 
We know JD would like to move back up into the top 10 from #23 to acquire another big impact offensive player for Wilson to pair with. Kyle Pitts, Sewell, Ja’Marr Chase??

We know ATL wants move out of 4, How comfortable would you be giving:

ATL: #23 overall,  #66 overall(3rd Rd Pick), 2022 1st rounder (Seahawks), 2022 3rd pick.

Jets: 4th Overall

ATL’s 4th overall selection holds a weighted value of 1800. the 23rd pick is 760, the 66th is 260, = 1,020.

Seattle’s 2022 1st should be weighted around the same or possibly a bit better. (760-780 range), that puts you right at about 1780-ish, the 2022 3rd should cap off the equal value.

We wouldn’t be giving up any of our 2nd rounders this year or next, We’d be parting with one of our 1st rounders next offseason, but you’d be making the sacrifice to go get a prospect like the 3 offensive skill position players mentioned at the top, who is probably going to be better than the guy sitting at Seattle’s pick next year. 
 

This trade scenario is not for the weak hearted. It’s a gusty move but it’s a move to secure a huge weapon that can help right now in Wilson’s rookie season, as well as a premium talent he can grow with for years to come.

No way. The Jets need to walk away with starters with all three of those picks. The Jets need to get to good because they can think about trading up for great.

[Jet9]

People still do the 'this pick is worth X points, etc' nonsense?

[Patriot Killa]

3 hours ago, Jet9 said:

People still do the 'this pick is worth X points, etc' nonsense?

I’m sorry, if you could, point me in the direction where all the trendy cool football fans are, so I can learn the modern techniques that I’ve been sheltered from for so long.

[Patriot Killa]

On 4/10/2021 at 7:12 PM, Peace Frog said:

We do?

How do we know this? 

Nobody knows anything about what JD wants to do. 

This is just a fan’s fantasy. 

@football guy sources mentioned this. It’s not something written in stone or anything, but it makes for a nice hypothetical scenario nonetheless.

[jetsons]

On 4/10/2021 at 8:15 PM, pdxgreen said:

No.  Because Douglas is specifically building up a catch of picks next year to build on any progress we make and fill in any gaps.  This roster is so full of holes right now that one bonanza draft isn't going to solve it.  Yeah. Pitts would be a nice pickup.  But I think we have to be practical as well as aggressive in acquiring picks.

Exactly... that's why we should have kept Darnold & traded down... the jets would get picks this year, 2022 & most likely 2023... Give Darnold the coaching he has NEVER received in the nfl... surround him with good players & the jets would be a successful team... If not there's ALWAYS another QB next year...(how many here can truthfully say zac wilson was high on their list last year)

[football guy]

13 minutes ago, Patriot Killa said:

@football guy sources mentioned this. It’s not something written in stone or anything, but it makes for a nice hypothetical scenario nonetheless.

1. Sick avatar (or whatever they call those things lol) 
2. People in the organization and those who have close ties to Joe Douglas have said this, but its true that they also don't know exactly what Joe Douglas is thinking. As it relates to the Jets specifically: they wanted to pair #23 and Darnold for #8. The reason why is because people in the organization have said that they see a wide gap in talent outside of the top 10. So they at least have expressed some real interest in moving up for a specific reason. Whether Douglas would part with a pick to move up? Not sure. But he was willing to use Darnold as a means to jump up from #23 into the top 10

[Peace Frog]

40 minutes ago, Patriot Killa said:

@football guy sources mentioned this. It’s not something written in stone or anything, but it makes for a nice hypothetical scenario nonetheless.

Hypotheticals are nice but (i) I don't think anyone has any idea what JD is thinking and (ii) I think the cost to go from 23 to 4 (for Pitts) or inside the top 10 (for the other guys) would be prohibitive.  I see him moving back a bit to add a 2nd or 3rd rounder, not give up all the draft capital he's garnered.  Just seems illogical.

Having said that, yeah I'd love to see Pitts on the Jets.  But if it costs us 2 top IOLs at 23 and 34 and more?  I don't know.

[JoJoTownsell1]

We we were in more desperate need of a WR last year and when a couple were sitting there for us in the 2nd round.....we traded back. 

This is a very deep WR draft, once again. I highly doubt he would give up that much trade capital for a WR/TE. 

[Patriot Killa]

2 hours ago, Peace Frog said:

Hypotheticals are nice but (i) I don't think anyone has any idea what JD is thinking and (ii) I think the cost to go from 23 to 4 (for Pitts) or inside the top 10 (for the other guys) would be prohibitive.  I see him moving back a bit to add a 2nd or 3rd rounder, not give up all the draft capital he's garnered.  Just seems illogical.

Having said that, yeah I'd love to see Pitts on the Jets.  But if it costs us 2 top IOLs at 23 and 34 and more?  I don't know.

Did you actually read the trade proposal? It has us keeping our 34. What you’re giving up is Seattle’s 1st (#23), 3rd round pick (#66), Seattle’s 2022 1st and a 2022 3rd rounder. You maintain your 2nd this year & next. Which basically sets you up to have a regular draft in 2022 post-trade except you were able to use the extra capital from next year to apply it this year.

[Patriot Killa]

2 hours ago, Peace Frog said:

Hypotheticals are nice but (i) I don't think anyone has any idea what JD is thinking

Fair, I don’t think anyone does either, but I also don’t see a reason to challenge a hypothetical scenario. It’s just a talking point.

[Peace Frog]

6 minutes ago, Patriot Killa said:

Did you actually read the trade proposal? It has us keeping our 34. What you’re giving up is Seattle’s 1st (#23), 3rd round pick (#66), Seattle’s 2022 1st and a 2022 3rd rounder. You maintain your 2nd this year & next. Which basically sets you up to have a regular draft in 2022 post-trade except you were able to use the extra capital from next year to apply it this year.

When responding to a hypothetical trade scenario, I at least try to be realistic. 

Moving from 23 to < 10 is going to take 23, 34 and more. 

I think any hypothetical trade from 23 to < 10 is unrealistic. 

Not giving up 34 is just a fantasy. 

Hey, at least you’re not proposing trading our owners for draft picks. 
 

 

[Sperm Edwards]

4 hours ago, jetsons said:

Exactly... that's why we should have kept Darnold & traded down... the jets would get picks this year, 2022 & most likely 2023... Give Darnold the coaching he has NEVER received in the nfl... surround him with good players & the jets would be a successful team... If not there's ALWAYS another QB next year...(how many here can truthfully say zac wilson was high on their list last year)

To each his own, but I never liked this option, frankly.

• Scenario A: Darnold is decent (or even at times looks pretty good). OK fine, even if he's now more expensive. Of course you do have to give him a huge extension based on one season no matter what, and maybe he regresses
• Scenario B: Darnold still sucks. After 2020 he has no more time left on his rookie contract, his value is lower for screwing up despite these new advantages, and he isn't ours to trade after the season anyway, so we get nothing.
• Scenario C : Darnold is just ok. He's locked in for a 5th year option at $18MM, to make sure we don't end up with nothing, but no one wants to pay him that much (let alone surrender a high draft pick in the same-year's draft).
• Scenario D : Darnold still sucks and the Jets are locked into him at $18MM for the 2022 season.

In all scenarios, you're still talking about pissing away another day 2 pick this year (basically the value of what we got in return for Darnold) on a QB with a lower chance of panning out than Wilson or Darnold.

In the bottom 3 scenarios you would be faced with another offseason of assessing other QB options. Except thanks to the partially upgraded team & upgraded coaching (hopefully), even if Darnold is just ok or still kinda sucks, the Jets may still finish within a game of .500 in either direction. They still need a QB upgrade, with Darnold holding the team back, but aren't in a position to get either of the better QB prospects next year. Plus I hear all the smart teams bench their rookie QBs anyway, so we shouldn't really see that QB until 2023 anyway.

I like just getting on with it, as they're doing, and hopefully Douglas chooses wisely. If it's Wilson and he sucks, then he sucks, and we can search for another before you know it. If Wilson is Darnold-level awful, and Darnold is suddenly awesome, so be it but the odds of that are really low. If anyone thought the odds of Scenario A were so great, surely someone would have offered a higher pick than a yet-unknown 2nd rounder a full year from now.

[Patriot Killa]

2 hours ago, Peace Frog said:

When responding to a hypothetical trade scenario, I at least try to be realistic. 

Moving from 23 to < 10 is going to take 23, 34 and more. 

I think any hypothetical trade from 23 to < 10 is unrealistic. 

Not giving up 34 is just a fantasy. 

Hey, at least you’re not proposing trading our owners for draft picks. 
 

 

I see your point, but in my defense, at least I incorporated the draft pick value chart in this scenario and worked my way up to equal value lol. More than likely, in real life, we do have to overpay in terms of chart value a bit to close that kind of deal. Don’t think there’s a proposal we could make to move up that far without giving up most of the extra gained high draft picks we’ve gotten. figured I’d take a crack at it though lol.

[Peace Frog]

18 minutes ago, Patriot Killa said:

I see your point, but in my defense, at least I incorporated the draft pick value chart in this scenario and worked my way up to equal value lol. More than likely, in real life, we do have to overpay in terms of chart value a bit to close that kind of deal. Don’t think there’s a proposal we could make to move up that far without giving up most of the extra gained high draft picks we’ve gotten. figured I’d take a crack at it though lol.

I appreciate the idealism of youth. 

[jetsons]

2 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

To each his own, but I never liked this option, frankly.

• Scenario A: Darnold is decent (or even at times looks pretty good). OK fine, even if he's now more expensive. Of course you do have to give him a huge extension based on one season no matter what, and maybe he regresses
• Scenario B: Darnold still sucks. After 2020 he has no more time left on his rookie contract, his value is lower for screwing up despite these new advantages, and he isn't ours to trade after the season anyway, so we get nothing.
• Scenario C : Darnold is just ok. He's locked in for a 5th year option at $18MM, to make sure we don't end up with nothing, but no one wants to pay him that much (let alone surrender a high draft pick in the same-year's draft).
• Scenario D : Darnold still sucks and the Jets are locked into him at $18MM for the 2022 season.

In all scenarios, you're still talking about pissing away another day 2 pick this year (basically the value of what we got in return for Darnold) on a QB with a lower chance of panning out than Wilson or Darnold.

In the bottom 3 scenarios you would be faced with another offseason of assessing other QB options. Except thanks to the partially upgraded team & upgraded coaching (hopefully), even if Darnold is just ok or still kinda sucks, the Jets may still finish within a game of .500 in either direction. They still need a QB upgrade, with Darnold holding the team back, but aren't in a position to get either of the better QB prospects next year. Plus I hear all the smart teams bench their rookie QBs anyway, so we shouldn't really see that QB until 2023 anyway.

I like just getting on with it, as they're doing, and hopefully Douglas chooses wisely. If it's Wilson and he sucks, then he sucks, and we can search for another before you know it. If Wilson is Darnold-level awful, and Darnold is suddenly awesome, so be it but the odds of that are really low. If anyone thought the odds of Scenario A were so great, surely someone would have offered a higher pick than a yet-unknown 2nd rounder a full year from now.

I get what you're saying but I still believe the jets would have been much better off keeping Darnold & acquiring a boatload of high value picks for the next 3 years... The jets are Still in the building process they need high value draft picks... not a rookie qb who has no oline or #1 wr or a capable rb to carry the load... & that's just on the offense... jmo

[jetsons]

double post... 

[jetsons]

either way we'll finf out in 2-3 yrs if jd made the right call.

[Sperm Edwards]

23 hours ago, jetsons said:

I get what you're saying but I still believe the jets would have been much better off keeping Darnold & acquiring a boatload of high value picks for the next 3 years... The jets are Still in the building process they need high value draft picks... not a rookie qb who has no oline or #1 wr or a capable rb to carry the load... & that's just on the offense... jmo

It’s hardly my dream line for the team, but he doesn’t have “no OL” — miraculously the sack percentage roughly cut in half when Darnold wasn’t behind center last year and an immobile statue took his place.

Anyway the line looked totally different after 5 of 5 linemen weren’t new to each other (if they were exclusively man-blocking that wouldn’t have been as big of a deal) for the first time in week 1, after no preseason games and limited practice together, followed by injuries & whatever happened with Lewis, such that it led to putting the likes of Edoga on the field and Elflein coming in off the street & starting right away, along with a more complex offense in general that was ill-suited for the personnel, with the best of the bunch on the line a fairly raw rookie getting his own lumps in (also hardly 100% healthy for most of the season himself). Meanwhile in between the pass blocking they had to clear 4 yard wide holes so plodding backs like Bell & Gore could run through them before the LBs could close in on them.

They’re not the greatest OL unit in the league or anything, and I can name a couple veterans that were no-brainers to sign (or ffs at least make an offer to them), but they’re not as bad as everyone’s making out just because they aren’t the 2009-2010 line before the tackles started falling apart in ‘11, losing the guards a year later, and their center a few years after that.

Further, I think several people posting here seriously believe that every other line in the league is nothing but high draft picks and higher-paid veterans. Go take a look at the OLs for all 14 playoff teams and you’ll see how distanced from reality that truly is. 

IMO they should target a guard at #34. If the situation lines up just-so, maybe at #23, maybe a few slots after that if they trade down, maybe a few slots up or down from 34, or who knows what options will be there as our picks are nearing or upon us. 

[rangerous]

20 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

It’s hardly my dream line for the team, but he doesn’t have “no OL” — miraculously the sack percentage roughly cut in half when Darnold wasn’t behind center last year and an immobile statue took his place.

Anyway the line looked totally different after 5 of 5 linemen weren’t new to each other (if they were exclusively man-blocking that wouldn’t have been as big of a deal) for the first time in week 1, after no preseason games and limited practice together, followed by injuries & such that led to putting the likes of Edoga on the field and Elflein coming in off the street & starting right away, along with a more complex offense in general that was ill-suited for the personnel, with the best of the bunch on the line a fairly raw rookie getting his own lumps in (also hardly 100% healthy for most of the season himself). Meanwhile in between the pass blocking they had to clear 4 yard wide holes so plodding backs like Bell & Gore could run through them before the LBs could close in on them.

They’re not the greatest OL unit in the league or anything, and I can name a couple veterans that were no-brainers to sign (or ffs at least make an offer to them), but they’re not as bad as everyone’s making out just because they aren’t the 2009-2010 line before the tackles started falling apart in ‘11, losing the guards a year later, and their center a few years after that.

Further, I think several people posting here seriously believe that every other line in the league is nothing but high draft picks and higher-paid veterans. Go take a look at the OLs for all 14 playoff teams and you’ll see how distanced from reality that truly is. 

IMO they should target a guard at #34. If the situation lines up just-so, maybe at #23, maybe a few slots after that if they trade down, maybe a few slots up or down from 34, or who knows what options will be there as our picks are nearing or upon us. 

right.  as i see it the biggest problem with last season's oline was them not being able to practice and then not play as a unit.  their problems were amplified because gore and bell were just not that good and gase didn't want to put in the younger guys (probably because they couldn't pass protect).  add to that darnold and the lack of consistent wr's and nobody should wonder why they only got 2 wins.