Would you do this trade?

[choon328]

The Falcons traded up from 27 to 6 with the Browns to draft Julio Jones and gave up:

2011: 1(27) (Used this pick in a trade up that got them: DT Phil Taylor)

2011: 2(59) (WR Greg Little)

2011: 4(124) (FB Owen Marecic)

2012: 1st rd pick (Brandon Weeden)

2012: 4th rd pick (Used in a trade up to draft Trent Richardson)

I would say this trade worked out really well for Atlanta who drafted Matt Ryan 3 years earlier. This took Ryan to a new level as a QB.

I'm not sure I would do it but if I was inclined to, using the above template, I would offer:

1(23)

3(86)

4(107)

2022 1st rd pick (Seattle) If Wilson plays, which it looks like he will, this pick will be at least in the high teens)

2022 4th rd pick (Carolina)

I would think that gets it done

Also, take into consideration that any pick beyond the 2nd round has about a 25% chance of becoming a starter. Those picks to me are inconsequential in a trade like this. You can make those additional picks up by trading down in the 3rd with 66 and with one of the 5ths.

So the question is would you trade a late 1st in 2021 and a mid to late 1st in 2022 to acquire Chase or Pitts to pair with Wilson? I think it's a no brainer. 

[nycdan]

Too many picks overall. I like Pitts and Chase, but that's too steep IMO.

I think you target something in the 9-15 range and if someone drops that you feel really moves the needle, then you can move up without paying QB prices.

 

[Barry McCockinner]

I wouldn't even consider it. We have a 2-14 roster with too many holes.

[choon328]

55 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Tempting but the Seattle pick could easily be higher than the Jets pick next year.

As long as Wilson is the starting QB the Jets will have the better pick.  Wilson told Carlos Dunlap that he was staying in Seattle this year and that's why he signed there. He's not going anywhere. 

[slats]

22 minutes ago, Patriot Killa said:

LOL. I’m not actually suggesting that we do this, mind you. I just randomly had a thought in my head yesterday of what a potential trade into the top 10 would look like for us & how would an offer look that doesn’t totally empty us out but is also fair. Just a “for fun” kind of thing.

@football guy has talked about the Jets not wanting to trade lower than the top ten, and also that they’d like to get back into the top ten, so I’ve thought about this some. I just don’t think it’s worth it. As in: I understand why Carolina didn’t want to come up to #2. That’s three or four premium picks on either a TE, OT, or WR. That’s A LOT. Especially for a team that still has a lot of holes. It would really surprise me -in a negative way- to find out JD was collecting all these picks just to nab one blue chip player. That’s cowardly drafting to me, the way Tanny traded picks away for the surest thing on his board. Gotta trust your process and take the four guys, IMO. 

[choon328]

37 minutes ago, slats said:

@football guy has talked about the Jets not wanting to trade lower than the top ten, and also that they’d like to get back into the top ten, so I’ve thought about this some. I just don’t think it’s worth it. As in: I understand why Carolina didn’t want to come up to #2. That’s three or four premium picks on either a TE, OT, or WR. That’s A LOT. Especially for a team that still has a lot of holes. It would really surprise me -in a negative way- to find out JD was collecting all these picks just to nab one blue chip player. That’s cowardly drafting to me, the way Tanny traded picks away for the surest thing on his board. Gotta trust your process and take the four guys, IMO. 

To me a premium pick is between 1st overall to about 50th overall. Anything beyond that is not premium.  Typically about 15-25 players have a 1st round grade in the draft and about 40-50 have a 1st or 2nd round grade. 

[football guy]

6 minutes ago, slats said:

@football guy has talked about the Jets not wanting to trade lower than the top ten, and also that they’d like to get back into the top ten, so I’ve thought about this some. I just don’t think it’s worth it. As in: I understand why Carolina didn’t want to come up to #2. That’s three or four premium picks on either a TE, OT, or WR. That’s A LOT. Especially for a team that still has a lot of holes. It would really surprise me -in a negative way- to find out JD was collecting all these picks just to nab one blue chip player. That’s cowardly drafting to me, the way Tanny traded picks away for the surest thing on his board. Gotta trust your process and take the four guys, IMO. 

Back into the top 10 was by packaging Darnold and #23 in a deal to CAR/DEN for #8/#9... doubt Douglas will part with the ammo to get in, but if a guy they really like falls outside of top 10 they’ll at least consider it

[choon328]

To me the trade up partner would most likely be Carolina at 8. 

1(23)

3(66)

2022 2nd rd pick (Jets)

2022 4th rd pick (Jets)

That makes sense for both teams bc the Panthers are in no man's land without a QB need or a skill position need. It gives them back a 2nd and 4th for next year and gives them an extra early 3rd.

This would leave the Jets with 1 3rd in 2021 and still 1 2nd and 1 4th in 2022. It makes sense for both teams. 

 

Is basically the Darnold, 23rd overall for 8 deal the Jets wanted but with a 3rd round addition. If Pitts, Chase or Smith get to 8 I could see JD pulling the trigger.

[Patriot Killa]

1 minute ago, football guy said:

Back into the top 10 was by packaging Darnold and #23 in a deal to CAR/DEN for #8/#9... doubt Douglas will part with the ammo to get in, but if a guy they really like falls outside of top 10 they’ll at least consider it

If a guy they like falls to 12-15 I definitely believe Douglas would look at that. #23 isn’t too far down from that.

[football guy]

2 minutes ago, Patriot Killa said:

If a guy they like falls to 12-15 I definitely believe Douglas would look at that. #23 isn’t too far down from that.

Agreed. A scenario I could potentially see playing out is 1(23) & 2(34) for 1(12) & 3(84)

[genot]

I think your onto something. That move though would be too extreme. If Waddle however is still there at the #12 to #15 range, i think that trade up makes loads of sense

[Beerfish]

19 minutes ago, choon328 said:

As long as Wilson is the starting QB the Jets will have the better pick.  Wilson told Carlos Dunlap that he was staying in Seattle this year and that's why he signed there. He's not going anywhere. 

As I said the rest of their div is better, Wilson actually gets hurt and we could be looking at a miami 3rd overall type pick.  (Houston had watson all year and won 4 games)

Seattle is on a bit of a precipice.  They have holes and very few picks to fill those holes.

[Patriot Killa]

4 minutes ago, football guy said:

Agreed. A scenario I could potentially see playing out is 1(23) & 2(34) for 1(12) & 3(84)

The question is which candidate might fall & is realistically valuable enough to move up for in that 12-15 range that JD might covet. I expect Pitts, Chase & Sewell to be gone.

Maybe Slater or an Edge?

[choon328]

18 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

As I said the rest of their div is better, Wilson actually gets hurt and we could be looking at a miami 3rd overall type pick.  (Houston had watson all year and won 4 games)

Seattle is on a bit of a precipice.  They have holes and very few picks to fill those holes.

I just don't see it. They've gotten much better on defense, especially on the defensive line which was their worst unit last year. The offense was top 10 and they added Gerald Everett to it. They finished 12-4 last year and got better on defense. They haven't finished with less than 9 wins since 2011. I'm not sure how they're all of a sudden going to be terrible. Russell Wilson hasn't missed a game in his career.

I think SF will be the worst team in that division with a rookie QB.

Arizona added Watt and AJ Green but they're a shell of themselves at this point. They lost their starting RB and TE and those haven't been replaced.

 

I think the division will be between the Rams and Seahawks. 

[derp]

1 hour ago, Patriot Killa said:

Seen where Detroit is actually open for business with the 7th pick, so that makes even more sense in a scenario like this & requires spending a bit less draft capital as well.

It’s riskier but probably more prudent to just see if he slides. I do love Pitts.

[derp]

19 minutes ago, football guy said:

Agreed. A scenario I could potentially see playing out is 1(23) & 2(34) for 1(12) & 3(84)

That wouldn’t be bad. Third round is loaded with potential long-term fits.

[NYDreamer]

Yes only if I get Sewell to go with Wilson


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[Paradis]

1 hour ago, Jet Nut said:

Are you trying to give @Paradis a heart attack? 

next to promiscuous Coeds is Kyle Pitts on a list of things that make me happy.

But i still wouldn't trade up for him. I really believe that this team needs more top 50 talent caliber players, not just couple blue chips

[genot]

15 minutes ago, Patriot Killa said:

The question is which candidate might fall & is realistically valuable enough to move up for in that 12-15 range that JD might covet. I expect Pitts, Chase & Sewell to be gone.

Maybe Slater or an Edge?

Waddle Killa. Get him the ball in the slot and he can take it home. Can line him up in the backfield too.

[genot]

11 minutes ago, derp said:

It’s riskier but probably more prudent to just see if he slides. I do love Pitts.

I hope the Dolphins don't get him.

[Patriot Killa]

1 minute ago, genot said:

Waddle Killa. Get him the ball in the slot and he can take it home. Can line him up in the backfield too.

I would enjoy that. We need a dangerous 4.2 WR who Wilson can lob it up to on our calculated shots next season.

[genot]

3 minutes ago, Patriot Killa said:

I would enjoy that. We need a dangerous 4.2 WR who Wilson can lob it up to on our calculated shots next season.

Crowder is good. He doesn't give us much after the catch. Waddle would.

[jetstream23]

1 hour ago, Patriot Killa said:

Look what we have after a trade like that. Still have a 1st, 2nd, 3rd & the rest of the draft.

I get it. But we’d need to hit on all of them. I think JD likes volume. He had 5 picks in Rounds 3 and 4 last year. I’m anxious to see how those guys turn out.

As much as I’d love a guy like Pitts or Chase, this just doesn’t feel like the right year to put a lot of eggs in one basket. 

[Alworth]

1 hour ago, K_O_Brien said:

Only trade ups I'd consider...#12 for Slater, #17 for Vera Tucker. 

 

Great post in a great thread. I was going to start a thread--now  I don't need to---saying that the kind of trade up that JD would/should consider is a "smaller one"--like this or even smaller--for the last remaining OL that he considers special. Specifically,  with multiple pre-discussed trade ups  in place on a contingent basis, he would pull the trigger when only the last special OL remained

[Irish Jet]

Definitely not.

The strength of Douglas has been acquiring this draft capital. You don’t trade it away on a guy who isn’t even a sure thing, even if he is the closest thing to it. OJ Howard was supposedly a sure thing too. If we were to trade up it’s not even the guy I’d take - That would be Penei Sewell.

Too many holes. Too many other needs. Wilson needs protection and a variety of other options, including a viable running game. 

All that said when we spend these first round picks on a failed CB and a mediocre linebacker we’ll look back and say of course we should have got the future Hall of Fame Tight End. 

[Rhg1084]

59 minutes ago, choon328 said:

To me the trade up partner would most likely be Carolina at 8. 

1(23)

3(66)

2022 2nd rd pick (Jets)

2022 4th rd pick (Jets)

That makes sense for both teams bc the Panthers are in no man's land without a QB need or a skill position need. It gives them back a 2nd and 4th for next year and gives them an extra early 3rd.

This would leave the Jets with 1 3rd in 2021 and still 1 2nd and 1 4th in 2022. It makes sense for both teams. 

 

Is basically the Darnold, 23rd overall for 8 deal the Jets wanted but with a 3rd round addition. If Pitts, Chase or Smith get to 8 I could see JD pulling the trigger.

Agreed, I feel moving up to 4 is too ambitious but could see a scenario like this where they still make a move into the top 10. They could target a guy like Slater, Pitts, Sewell, Chase, Smith 

 

[Butterfield]

How about 

23, 34, Jets 2022 2nd, Panthers 2022 2nd, Mosley, Fatukasi

for

4, 68, Falcons 2022 4th and 6th, Deion Jones and Mykal Walker?

 

Jets are able to move up without losing the quantity of picks.  There have been questions about Mosley and Fatukasi’s fit with the Jets, and the same can be said for Jones and Walker on the Falcons.  They would all fit better on their new teams.  

[Jet2020]

23 hours ago, Patriot Killa said:

Nobody is saying he wouldn’t be able to acquire a good player at 23. The question is would you sacrifice future premium picks for present premium talent if the opportunity was there — the interesting part of the proposal is the decent amount of picks you would still own vs the player you would be picking.

You can always move from 23rd to 4th. Costs an arm and a leg. We have pucks this year cuz we sacrificed (traded) good players. 

[kelly]

no..

 

?

[Patriot Killa]

Sup @jetsons

[Patriot Killa]

1 hour ago, Jet2020 said:

You can always move from 23rd to 4th. Costs an arm and a leg. We have pucks this year cuz we sacrificed (traded) good players. 

Darnold isn’t a good player & Leo had a huge year, otherwise, he’s been very so-so getting home on the sack & making a real impact. Jamal Adams forced his way out and is strictly a one dimensional.

I’m much happier with the picks than the players. We were 4-12 & 2-14 when all three were here. 

[Jetsfan80]

Neither team would or should do a trade like that.

# 4 is more valuable to ATL than the proposed package of picks.  Forget about the chart.  When it comes to top 5 picks and with a QB possibly involved, it's worth a lot more than the chart says it is.  And that's played out in the market every year.  We'd be competing with QB-needy teams to trade up for a TE or WR.  No chance we can compete.  

And even if we COULD get a relative bargain like this for # 4, we still shouldn't do it.  I love Pitts but a TE really is just not a wise reason to move up.  They're injury prone by the nature of their position, and the top TE's in the game today were found in the middle rounds.  

[Peace Frog]

On 4/9/2021 at 5:01 PM, Patriot Killa said:

We know JD would like to move back up into the top 10 from #23 to acquire another big impact offensive player for Wilson to pair with. 

We do?

How do we know this? 

Nobody knows anything about what JD wants to do. 

This is just a fan’s fantasy. 

[Peace Frog]

I guess this is better idea than trying to trade the Johnson Brother’s for picks. 

[pdxgreen]

No.  Because Douglas is specifically building up a catch of picks next year to build on any progress we make and fill in any gaps.  This roster is so full of holes right now that one bonanza draft isn't going to solve it.  Yeah. Pitts would be a nice pickup.  But I think we have to be practical as well as aggressive in acquiring picks.