Every Throw From Zach Wilson - Week 15 vs Dolphins

[jgb]

4 minutes ago, rtnelson said:

Mike White's RTG this season is 75.1

Since returning from injury Wilson's RTG is 70.55 against better defenses while missing starters.

Josh Johnson was pretty good against the Colts prevent defense.

Flacco played well, but with all the starters put up the same amount of points as Zach did.

The difference isn't as big as people think. 21.6 PPG with Zach out, 18 PPG with Zach back.

Yes, it's different.  But not as big as people think, and the results against the same opponent were identical.  You can say the stats were better with a decade plus starter and superbowl winner at QB with the #1 weapon on the field and I'll agree.  But they scored the same amount of points.

Let's put Flacco aside since he has a mountain of experience although he's diminished significantly physically and was never all that good to begin with.

Do you not see it as a problem that Johnson and especially White in his first NFL game are even in the ballpark of the #2 overall?

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I'm not saying Zach has been great, only that it's not as bad as you seem to think, and it's getting better.

Would you be starting Mike White instead of developing Zach if he were available?  Do you think we should be starting Flacco or should have kept and been starting Josh Johnson over Zach?

Nope. Start Zach every game and snap from here on out. He needs reps, we need data.

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Or do you think you keep giving the 22 year old a chance to see new defenses to prepare him better for next year?

I want a credible QB2 brought in. Preferably one who is young(ish) with NFL experience and theoretical upside. Zach responded well the pressure for his job at BYU. Let's see how he responds and have bust/injury insurance.

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Damn this is going to be a long offseason, even if he lights it up to end the year because Darnold played decent at the end of his rookie year.

 

I just want one game to make me believe a little bit into the off season. One. Complete. Game. Where Zach is the best player on the field.

[FidelioJet]

5 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

He has six TD’s in ten starts. All six of those TDs came in three starts, so he’s had seven games where he hasn’t put the ball in the end zone. When we say he’s “improved” because he hasn’t thrown a pick in two games, we also need to acknowledge that he’s not producing much either. It’s like saying an F1 driver has improved because he hasn’t crashed in two races, but leaving out that he’s also driving at a max speed of 45 MPH. 

Sure. Fair post.   
 

I still look at those first three weeks and believe he’s light years ahead of where he was. Not statistically, but just the way he’s playing the game.  

But he was good in the Eagles game.  I guess this is what frustrates me, I just don’t know how you can watch that game and not say that was real progress - that he showed a lot of what he’s capable of. 

Saints game was rough.

Miami game he put up points early. Ran for a TD.  Was mostly good with his short ball issues (I know it shouldn’t be but that was a big step - is he past the yips? If that’s what it is) 

I am convinced with a full compliment of receivers.  AND he can hit the short sh*t like he did Sunday, we’re going to see him break out. I know it hasn’t happened yet.
But that’s the way I’m seeing it.  And that’s why I’m still hopeful.  
 

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, rtnelson said:

We all want to see that.  But just because we haven't doesn't mean it won't ever happen.

The Saints D just made Tom Brady look like a rookie last night.  But we expect our rookie to rise above with significantly worse supporting cast.

Yes.  Every time Tom Brady, Pat Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson falters, it means Zach Wilson will become one of them.  Yes.

When an all-time great QB falters, its a rarity.  When Wilson falters, its currently the norm.  Bit of a key difference but hey, feelings and stuff.  

[rtnelson]

4 minutes ago, jgb said:

I just want one game to make me believe a little bit into the off season. One. Complete. Game. Where Zach is the best player on the field.

This week will be the best chance for that, because the Bucs and Bills will be in playoff mode.

[Jetsfan80]

16 minutes ago, rtnelson said:

Mike White's RTG this season is 75.1

Since returning from injury Wilson's RTG is 70.55 against better defenses while missing starters.

Josh Johnson was pretty good against the Colts prevent defense.

Flacco played well, but with all the starters put up the same amount of points as Zach did.

The difference isn't as big as people think. 21.6 PPG with Zach out, 18 PPG with Zach back.

Zach Wilson needs to be better than those guys, and by a decent margin, even as a rookie.  He's a # 2 overall pick who was, for better or worse, handed the QB1 job.  Joe Flacco is a semi-retired 36 year old.  Josh Johnson is a journeyman 3rd stringer.  Mike White hadn't played an NFL snap until this season.  

[Jetsfan80]

Just now, rtnelson said:

This week will be the best chance for that, because the Bucs and Bills will be in playoff mode.

And when he doesn't, I'm sure you'll be armed with a list of excuses why he didn't do it.  

[sec101row23]

I said before the season started that if Zach is going to be the man we’re going to know by the end of the season.  There shouldn’t be a need for rationalizing and convincing.   Sadly, it’s been pretty bad, by lots of metrics.   There just hasn’t been any consistent stretches of good play.   A half here, a quarter here, then prolonged periods of poor play.  You can give the majority of QBs currently on rosters right now extended playing time and you’ll have good stretches of play, that’s not indicative of becoming the guy.   What we needed to see was more consistency especially at the end of the season.   It’s just not looking good for Zach.  

[GangGreened]

If Wilson is gonna have a game this year, this is the week.

it’s rather discouraging he hasn’t even come close to the level Darnold was playing at this time his rookie year

[rtnelson]

2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Yes.  Every time Tom Brady, Pat Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson falters, it means Zach Wilson will become one of them.  Yes.

When an all-time great QB falters, its a rarity.  When Wilson falters, its currently the norm.  Bit of a key difference but hey, feelings and stuff.  

It's only relevant because the Saints game was 8 days ago and has been used for the past week as evidence of why he's hopeless.  How is that hard to understand?  It's not, and you're deliberately obfuscating it in an attempt to make it seem like some random factoid pulled from thin air.

[rtnelson]

3 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

And when he doesn't, I'm sure you'll be armed with a list of excuses why he didn't do it.  

He's been playing better.  And when he continues to improve like he has been but doesn't play like an MVP, I'm sure you'll still be on the warpath.

[Hal N of Provo]

18 minutes ago, jgb said:

Let's put Flacco aside since he has a mountain of experience although he's diminished significantly physically and was never all that good to begin with.

Do you not see it as a problem that Johnson and especially White in his first NFL game are even in the ballpark of the #2 overall?

Nope. Start Zach every game and snap from here on out. He needs reps, we need data.

I want a credible QB2 brought in. Preferably one who is young(ish) with NFL experience and theoretical upside. Zach responded well the pressure for his job at BYU. Let's see how he responds and have bust/injury insurance.

I just want one game to make me believe a little bit into the off season. One. Complete. Game. Where Zach is the best player on the field.

Zach haters Bingo card “other starters were much better” square just got demolished though 

[Jetsfan80]

Just now, rtnelson said:

He's been playing better.  And when he continues to improve like he has been but doesn't play like an MVP, I'm sure you'll still be on the warpath.

This is almost meaningless to me considering that for most of his rookie season he's looked like one of the worst QB's I've ever seen.

"Better" is nice but this past Sunday was barely an acceptable performance.  Raise your standards.  Don't ask me to lower mine.  

[sec101row23]

3 minutes ago, rtnelson said:

This week will be the best chance for that, because the Bucs and Bills will be in playoff mode.

Doesn’t that just sum up everything though?   Why shouldn’t we expect him to play well against good teams?   If the expectation is that s**ting the bed is a given against a good team, then why even bother with him?   

[Jetsfan80]

3 minutes ago, rtnelson said:

It's only relevant because the Saints game was 8 days ago and has been used for the past week as evidence of why he's hopeless.  How is that hard to understand?  It's not, and you're deliberately obfuscating it in an attempt to make it seem like some random factoid pulled from thin air.

Odds are very good that he is hopeless.  It's on him to prove otherwise.  Not me to just accept that these are "normal rookie struggles".  Because they really aren't.  

[rtnelson]

Just now, sec101row23 said:

Doesn’t that just sum up everything though?   Why shouldn’t we expect him to play well against good teams?   If the expectation is that s**ting the bed is a given against a good team, then why even bother with him?   

Because we are currently running out practice squad receivers who can't get open against good defenses.  Godwin tears his ACL and people are making claims that this hurts Tampa Bay's superbowl chances.  Why should that affect Brady's results at all?

[jgb]

3 minutes ago, Hal N of Provo said:

Zach haters Bingo card “other starters were much better” square just got demolished though 

You're going to have to explain. I can't read your wall.

[rtnelson]

Just now, sec101row23 said:

Doesn’t that just sum up everything though?   Why shouldn’t we expect him to play well against good teams?   If the expectation is that s**ting the bed is a given against a good team, then why even bother with him?   

Because we are currently running out practice squad receivers who can't get open against good defenses.  Godwin tears his ACL and people are making claims that this hurts Tampa Bay's superbowl chances.  Why should that affect Brady's results at all?

[jgb]

2 minutes ago, rtnelson said:

Because we are currently running out practice squad receivers who can't get open against good defenses.  Godwin tears his ACL and people are making claims that this hurts Tampa Bay's superbowl chances.  Why should that affect Brady's results at all?

No one said weaponz don't matter. We are saying they can't turn the worst QB in the NFL into a FQB to build a team around for the next 10 years.

[rtnelson]

4 minutes ago, jgb said:

No one said weaponz don't matter. We are saying they can't turn the worst QB in the NFL into a FQB to build a team around for the next 10 years.

But the lack of them does a promising young raw talent absolutely zero favors.  Once again, I'm not claiming he is a FQB, only that the jury is still out and bashing the kid while he's improving by just pointing to stats does a disservice to him and yourself.  Because why wouldn't you want to look past raw stats.

You pretend like it's an either or.  You either look at the play, or look at the stats.  He actually played pretty well yesterday and showed improvement.  BUT STATZ.

[jgb]

8 minutes ago, rtnelson said:

But the lack of them does a promising young raw talent absolutely zero favors. 

A trusim that no one disputes and wasn't your earlier point that I responded to.

8 minutes ago, rtnelson said:

Once again, I'm not claiming he is a FQB, only that the jury is still out

Again, no one disagreed.

8 minutes ago, rtnelson said:

and bashing the kid while he's improving by just pointing to stats does a disservice to him and yourself.  Because why wouldn't you want to look past raw stats.

Fans evaluating a player -- even if proven way wrong -- isn't a disservice to anyone. This is a hobby. We enjoy analyzing, discussing, even debating. 

8 minutes ago, rtnelson said:

You pretend like it's an either or.  You either look at the play, or look at the stats.  He actually played pretty well yesterday and showed improvement.  BUT STATZ.

Not my argument at all thus you don't get a substantive response. You are entitled to your opinion but not to mine.

[Jetsfan80]

13 minutes ago, rtnelson said:

But the lack of them does a promising young raw talent absolutely zero favors. 

As we learned with Sam Darnold, this means exactly zero when it comes to whether a QB is secretly good or not.  He was just a bad QB with a bad supporting cast.

If a QB has the goods, it'll show up regardless of who his receivers are.  It didn't for Darnold (and never will) and it hasn't yet for Wilson.  

[jgb]

4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

As we learned with Sam Darnold, this means exactly zero when it comes to whether a QB is secretly good or not.  He was just a bad QB with a bad supporting cast.

If a QB has the goods, it'll show up regardless of who his receivers are.  It didn't for Darnold (and never will) and it hasn't yet for Wilson.  

People believe that "situation bad" and "therefore QB good" are two points that are connected by a wormhole, allowing them to skip over the miles of pesky logic necessary to traverse between them in Euclidian space.

[HawkeyeJet]

Can you imagine when these arguments only took place at the tavern?  Lots of punches thrown or beers bought.  Times were simpler(I assume, I only know of internet sports arguing).

[jgb]

Just now, HawkeyeJet said:

Can you imagine when these arguments only took place at the tavern?  Lots of punches thrown or beers bought.  Times were simpler(I assume, I only know of internet sports arguing).

I'm too pretty to get hit.

[jeremy2020]

39 minutes ago, rtnelson said:

He's been playing better.  And when he continues to improve like he has been but doesn't play like an MVP, I'm sure you'll still be on the warpath.

I don't get it. It's like people didn't see how much Darnold improved and became a franchise QB...

oh wait..

Don't you get tired of having to convince yourself with every Jets QB? It's ok to admit they're not good even if you wish they were. 

[jgb]

4 minutes ago, jeremy2020 said:

I don't get it. It's like people didn't see how much Darnold improved and became a franchise QB...

oh wait..

Don't you get tired of having to convince yourself with every Jets QB? It's ok to admit they're not good even if you wish they were. 

It's no work for them. It's just the same arguments with a "find and replace" for the QB name applied.

[HawkeyeJet]

1 minute ago, jeremy2020 said:

I don't get it. It's like people didn't see how much Darnold improved and became a franchise QB...

oh wait..

Don't you get tired of having to convince yourself with every Jets QB? It's ok to admit they're not good even if you wish they were. 

I ask this with the utmost respect and sincerity.  I’ll ask you and anyone else that feels like that.  What do you gain by writing him off?  Has he been bad?  Yes.  Is he likely a franchise QB?  No.  Can he get much better?  Yes.  Is it likely?  Probably not.

Just like you think it’s silly for those aren’t willing to completely write him off, I don’t understand what is gained by your stance either.

[rtnelson]

6 minutes ago, jgb said:

People believe that "situation bad" and "therefore QB good" are two points that are connected by a wormhole, allowing them to skip over the miles of pesky logic necessary to traverse between them in Euclidian space.

I never claimed that.

I'm claiming "situation bad" "young raw rookie takes time to improve".  And he has been improving.  Undoubtedly many Bills fans were raging Allen's rookie year.  This is not to say, Zach Wilson = Josh Allen, only that many fans don't know what the hell they're looking at.  Jets fans in particular because of DPTSD.

Alas, when we get down to it, we agree that it needs to get better.  I just acknowledge that it has been getting better and realize it's going to take time.

[jgb]

Just now, rtnelson said:

I never claimed that.

I'm claiming "situation bad" "young raw rookie takes time to improve".  And he has been improving.  Undoubtedly many Bills fans were raging Allen's rookie year.  This is not to say, Zach Wilson = Josh Allen, only that many fans don't know what the hell they're looking at.  Jets fans in particular because of DPTSD.

Alas, when we get down to it, we agree that it needs to get better.  I just acknowledge that it has been getting better and realize it's going to take time.

OK, then let's make a bet. I bet you Wilson's 5th year option is not picked up by the Jets. You can name the stakes. We can each pick a charity where the loser pays if we win.

[rtnelson]

Just now, jgb said:

OK, then let's make a bet. I bet you Wilson's 5th year option is not picked up by the Jets. You can name the stakes. We can each pick a charity where the loser pays if we win.

Didn't we go through this yesterday?

[jgb]

1 minute ago, rtnelson said:

Didn't we go through this yesterday?

Just pointing out again that your wallet is smarter than your mouth.

[rtnelson]

8 minutes ago, jgb said:

Just pointing out that your mouth says one thing but your wallet admits Zach isn't worth betting on.

I've never gambled a day in my life.  Yet because I won't do so with you makes some sort of statement about my opinion on Zach?

I believe the safer bet would be that the 5th year option isn't picked up.  But not necessarily exclusively on his play this year.  Mostly that the Jets as a whole have a history of being a terrible organization and not because I don't think he can't be a good QB.  3 years from now it's at best even money that the Jets are about to tear it all down again and start over regardless of how well Zach plays.

My opinion is that he's young, extremely raw, and learning how to play QB on the job while also not being put in a great situation to do so.  I think he has the talent to be great, but remains to be seen if he'll fulfil that talent and won't knock the kid down for not being excellent off the rip.

[jgb]

Just now, rtnelson said:

I've never gambled a day in my life.  Yet because I won't do so with you makes some sort of statement about my opinion on Zach?

I believe the safer bet would be that the 5th year option isn't picked up.  But not necessarily exclusively on his play this year.  Mostly that the Jets as a whole have a history of being a terrible organization and not because I don't think he can't be a good QB.  3 years from now it's at best even money that the Jets are about to tear it all down again and start over regardless of how well Zach plays.

My opinion is that he's young, extremely raw, and learning how to play QB on the job while also not being put in a great situation to do so.  I think he has the talent to be great, but remains to be seen if he'll fulfil that talent and won't knock the kid down for not being excellent off the rip.

I didn't know you were against gambling. That's my bad. I'll try to remember that. Just remind me in the future and I'll apologize again (hard to keep everyone straight).

[rtnelson]

1 minute ago, jgb said:

I didn't know you were against gambling. That's my bad. I'll try to remember that. Just remind me in the future and I'll apologize again (hard to keep everyone straight).

I'm not against gambling, I just prefer to "gamble" in the market instead of on football.

[jgb]

1 minute ago, rtnelson said:

I'm not against gambling, I just prefer to "gamble" in the market instead of on football.

Well, that can be called "investing" to assuage any moral misgivings.

Although, honestly, betting against Zach has a higher NPV than the market if it's straight up without odds.