Bryce Huff Discussion

[CanadaSteve]

5 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Why would someone offer a 2nd for Huff?

He's not under contract with the Jets.

Unless someone not only wants the franchise tag amount to be the basis for an extension with Huff, but feels that such a contract offer would have competition from another team, no one would offer the Jets anything at all.

The team would never ring JD, and instead would simply wait until March to offer Huff $20-23MM/year as a UFA and keep their 2nd rounder, because no one else is one-upping them after offering him such a ridiculous contract.

There were options talked about with sign and trade.  

Otherwise, he would probably garner a 3rd round comp pick.

[CanadaSteve]

4 hours ago, peekskill68 said:

Good post.  It would not surprise me at all if there is some short term "prove it" deal done here.  Better for the team (we are so short of OL bodies) and better for the player (there is talent there which we saw flashes of as a rookie).  My own belief is he could be a decent RT (just too slow in pass sets to play LT at the pro level) and would look better with Rodgers (helping the OL with assignments and getting the ball out quicker)

Then that might be better.  We could put AVT beside him at RG while Becton plays RT.  You leave Tomlinson where he is.  Has he been good?  No.  But he doesn't get hurt.  Get a top LT in the draft, and that might help Tomlinson.  All that said, we need about 5 solid depth players as well.  I think Warren will be good.  We might need a McGovern-type player on a one-year deal as a backup centre.  Mitchell at this point should be 3rd team depth.  I always thought Cedric Ogbuehi did admirably coming off the street in 2022.  He should have played more in 2023 when we signed him halfway through the season.  

[CrazyCarl40]

19 minutes ago, CanadaSteve said:

There were options talked about with sign and trade.  

Otherwise, he would probably garner a 3rd round comp pick.

Transition tag and trade to recoup the 2nd would be great. Signing Huff last offseason and drafting not an old DE last offseason would have been greater. No chance they get a comp pick for him. They’re going to sign to many folks for that. 

[Beerfish]

Why would any team agree to a sign and trade?  Why?  He's going to be a FA and he is not going to sign a bargain contract.

Tagging is also off the table, the tag value for a DE is astronomical.

We sign him or let him walk and by his words there are no discounts and no reason for him to give any.

He will go towards the comp pick formula and most likely not make any difference as others have pointed out we will be singing a number of fas.

He is gone and we are getting nothing for him.

[Alworth]

Quite apart from his sack rate numbers, which Sperm persuasively argues are inflated though good, IIRC, Huff's percentages for pressures and pass rush win rates are crazy high, almost outliers. If that's correct, that needs to be a factor, even if not a game changer in the decision of how much the Jets can pay him.

[Sperm Edwards]

1 hour ago, CanadaSteve said:

There were options talked about with sign and trade.  

Otherwise, he would probably garner a 3rd round comp pick.

Sign and trade is impossible

[The Crusher]

4 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Sign and trade is impossible

Boo!!!

 

[Beerfish]

2 hours ago, The Crusher said:

Boo!!!

 

 

[CanadaSteve]

3 hours ago, CrazyCarl40 said:

Transition tag and trade to recoup the 2nd would be great. Signing Huff last offseason and drafting not an old DE last offseason would have been greater. No chance they get a comp pick for him. They’re going to sign to many folks for that. 

Okay, so there goes any of that.

Back to the original point: He goes.  Spending $17 million on him is a luxury the Jets can't afford.  

[Sperm Edwards]

15 hours ago, CrazyCarl40 said:

Transition tag and trade to recoup the 2nd would be great. Signing Huff last offseason and drafting not an old DE last offseason would have been greater. No chance they get a comp pick for him. They’re going to sign to many folks for that. 

That won't happen. No one's tagging Bryce Huff like he's an established probowl starter, let alone to get someone to match that amount annually so they can pry a 2nd round pick out of another team.

First off, if they transition tag him all they get is the right to match, but are entitled to no picks in return if they don't. That's why it's almost never used.

Second, because the his transition tag amount would still be north of $20MM (he should win any grievance with the league that he's a DE not an OLB, if he was ever tagged). Except who's going to pay anywhere near that ludicrous amount on a multi-year deal for Huff in the first place? Huff just hasn't demonstrated he's that level of player. He hasn't even demonstrated he's a starter (let alone an upper-level starter), and while fans are appropriately disgruntled with the coaching staff, in terms of defensive coaching Saleh/Ulbrich have good reputations for knowing what they're doing with their own defensive players, and if they don't think he's an every down starter that'll hold some weight with other teams.

IOW if they transition tag Huff, he's not going anywhere for the year. He'll be on the Jets at a bloated amount that's probably pushing twice what he's actually worth, plus they can't lower that $20MM+ hit with void years, and will just be in the same situation with him again a year later. 

He's a good player and I'd like it if Douglas locked him up earlier -- the best opportunity was when no one else showed interest in him under the 2nd round tender, but before drafting McDonald & guaranteeing Lawson's '23 season.

But again a year later, Jets fans are badly overestimating his value again. The same thing happened last year when people were screaming about the supposed benightedness of not RFA-tagging Huff with a 1st round tender, because they'd surely lose him to a contender and "only" get a late 2nd rounder in return. Meanwhile no one matched the 2nd round tender for him, no one contacted him to see if they could lock him up for cheap if they had to give up a pick, and no one contacted the Jets to see if they'd take a lower pick than a 2nd for him, so far as we know. 

He's probably looking at a $12-13MM ceiling as a UFA, if he gets even that. If it means a starting job elsewhere, he'll probably take less money to play for a different team than be used situationally again for the Jets. That figure may be a bargain for his new team if he balls out as a starter, but right now the idea of tagging him for the year at north of $20MM is unrealistic (if not outright nonsensical), let alone to get someone to pay the Jets a 2nd rounder to pry him away at that rate.

[Doggin94it]

22 hours ago, Smashmouth said:

When I look at Huff he is actually in the perfect position right now. The reason I say this is because the Jets really never played with a lead so Huff's chances rushing the passer were much less than they would normally be in a competent offense. You have to figure with Aaron Rodgers at QB the Jets will be playing with a lead at a higher percentage than last year by a large margin which in turn leads to more opportunities for Huff to rush the passer especially in the 4th quarter when sacks really count the most.

Having him fresh and not beat down by the running game is in the best interest of both Huff and any team he winds up playing for. If he thinks playing every down is the ticket to more money I think he's dead wrong and I do not think anyone will sign him as an every down player and throw 20 mil per at him he's just not big enough to take that kind of pounding. If our offense gets us some leads I bet Huff can easily approach 15 sacks and on the flip side if Huff goes somewhere else as this "every down" guy he wants to be I think his numbers go down and I think he also opens himself up for fatigue in the 4th quarter and also possible Injury since I do not think his frame can handle the pounding of a good running game.

I say we offer Huff a 3 or 4 year deal in the 13-15 range with 25-30 mil guaranteed. I think on the low side of 13 mil per you offer some incentives to sweeten the deal and at 15 mil no incentives.

If Huff is dead set on moving on then wish him luck as he gets paid but has issues staying on the field.

 

13-15 won't get it done; the tag would be way more than that and at 13-15, he tests the market and gets a higher offer. He's probably looking at 17-19 from someone if he hits FA, and the Jets won't be matching that..

[Smashmouth]

14 minutes ago, Doggin94it said:

13-15 won't get it done; the tag would be way more than that and at 13-15, he tests the market and gets a higher offer. He's probably looking at 17-19 from someone if he hits FA, and the Jets won't be matching that..

Yeah if someone wants to pay him 17-19 that's fine . I don't think he's ever going to see what the tag dictates which is 23 mil so in a sense that's irrelevant . 13 to 15 is more along the lines of what I think the Jets should be willing to offer anything more then let him walk. He has a very small body of work and I think starting/more reps will break him down, cutting into his stamina, his numbers, and eventually lead to injury so that's my reasoning why teams may balk at the higher numbers also the reason I think 13-15 is a fair number from our standpoint

Guys like Von Miller and Kaleil Mack had High snap counts from the start so you knew what you were getting. It's much easier to offer them big money deals because they were able to play under those high snap count conditions . That being said if you look at Miller he started breaking down a bit in his prime (often Injured) when he may have been better suited as a specialist rather than a 70- to 80% snap count guy.

Huff has not proven 1. he can take on the heavier load 2. that he can be effective vs the run  and those are big questions when discussing how large this contract may or may not be. Yes there will probably be a team that over pays that's a fair assumption.

One thing that bothers me a bit is I think Huff can still make great money save wear and tear on his body and stay with a team that developed him. Obviously its his life to make this choice but I personally think he's making a mistake and , in the end, all about the pay day. I'm not going to believe this is only about starting and playing more football that horse sh*t IMHO because like I said in previous posts if he gets an offer to start with a high snap count at 15mil but a team comes in at 20 mil and says only specialist he's taking the 20 mil .

[#27TheDominator]

20 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Why would someone offer a 2nd for Huff?

He's not under contract with the Jets.

Unless someone not only wants the franchise tag amount to be the basis for an extension with Huff, but feels that such a contract offer would have competition from another team, no one would offer the Jets anything at all.

The team would never ring JD, and instead would simply wait until March to offer Huff $20-23MM/year as a UFA and keep their 2nd rounder, because no one else is one-upping them after offering him such a ridiculous contract.

I have been saying this for months.  I am not sure why they don't seem to hear it.

[#27TheDominator]

18 hours ago, Barton said:

Cut or restructure enough guys on this team and get it done. An elite rusher is 1 of the most important pieces in football. 

Yet using #15 in an attempt to obtain one is almost universally panned around here.

[Sperm Edwards]

39 minutes ago, Doggin94it said:

13-15 won't get it done; the tag would be way more than that and at 13-15, he tests the market and gets a higher offer. He's probably looking at 17-19 from someone if he hits FA, and the Jets won't be matching that..

We'll see soon enough, of course, but do you really think he'll get that much? I never underestimate the stupidity of NFL GMs - particularly desperate ones who think they're in make-or-break seasons - and absolutely it's true all it takes is one of them. But one time in his career amassing 10 sacks in a pigeonholed role to keep him fresh (almost all his sacks came in the 2nd half against more-tired offensive linemen who'd been playing every snap, also typically with the Jets already down by double-digits) doesn't scream $18MM/year to me.

That said, no doubt sacks are a sexy statistic and there's an optics to reaching double digits in that category. The truth still is he's not been a starter and the last time he was (granted it was two seasons ago) it between forgettable and a disaster on the field, plus he spent half the season on IR with a bad back.

I'd be I guess surprised but not shocked (in my head there's a difference lol) to see him in the $18MM/year range. 

What won't shock me is if/when he doesn't get such a high contract amount then the angry mob will say the Jets should've just paid him that same amount, as though Huff simply would've have simply taken it.

[Sperm Edwards]

1 hour ago, #27TheDominator said:

I have been saying this for months.  I am not sure why they don't seem to hear it.

Scream louder.

[#27TheDominator]

2 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

We'll see soon enough, of course, but do you really think he'll get that much? I never underestimate the stupidity of NFL GMs - particularly desperate ones who think they're in make-or-break seasons - and absolutely it's true all it takes is one of them. But one time in his career amassing 10 sacks in a pigeonholed role to keep him fresh (almost all his sacks came in the 2nd half against more-tired offensive linemen who'd been playing every snap, also typically with the Jets already down by double-digits) doesn't scream $18MM/year to me.

That said, no doubt sacks are a sexy statistic and there's an optics to reaching double digits in that category. The truth still is he's not been a starter and the last time he was (granted it was two seasons ago) it between forgettable and a disaster on the field, plus he spent half the season on IR with a bad back.

I'd be I guess surprised but not shocked (in my head there's a difference lol) to see him in the $18MM/year range. 

What won't shock me is if/when he doesn't get such a high contract amount then the angry mob will say the Jets should've just paid him that same amount, as though Huff simply would've have simply taken it.

FWIW, I think he has been performing well in most of the pass rush metrics for years. It's just that this year he got the sacks.  On the hand, so did Jacob Martin. 

[Doggin94it]

4 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

We'll see soon enough, of course, but do you really think he'll get that much? I never underestimate the stupidity of NFL GMs - particularly desperate ones who think they're in make-or-break seasons - and absolutely it's true all it takes is one of them. But one time in his career amassing 10 sacks in a pigeonholed role to keep him fresh (almost all his sacks came in the 2nd half against more-tired offensive linemen who'd been playing every snap, also typically with the Jets already down by double-digits) doesn't scream $18MM/year to me.

That said, no doubt sacks are a sexy statistic and there's an optics to reaching double digits in that category. The truth still is he's not been a starter and the last time he was (granted it was two seasons ago) it between forgettable and a disaster on the field, plus he spent half the season on IR with a bad back.

I'd be I guess surprised but not shocked (in my head there's a difference lol) to see him in the $18MM/year range. 

What won't shock me is if/when he doesn't get such a high contract amount then the angry mob will say the Jets should've just paid him that same amount, as though Huff simply would've have simply taken it.

I think elite win rates and demonstrated ability to finish will get him paid like a guy you expect to maintain a ~1 in 60-65 snap sack rate over higher snap numbers; people will see his current numbers as a floor given that he has two years with that type of efficiency. And he will likely be the top Edge rusher on the (not particularly deep) market given that Josh Allen and Brian Burns will most likely both be tagged. That's the setup for a bidding war 

[Rich Thornburgh]

Best edge rusher since Abe, can’t wait to get a compensatory 2nd for him so we can overpay Bakhtiari!

[Rich Thornburgh]

On 1/25/2024 at 5:16 AM, CanadaSteve said:

Okay, so there goes any of that.

Back to the original point: He goes.  Spending $17 million on him is a luxury the Jets can't afford.  

Rubbish 

 

Cut Mosely, draft a ILB in round 3 to replace him.  That saves us $17 mil we can use on Huff

[Alworth]

5 hours ago, Rich Thornburgh said:

Rubbish 

 

Cut Mosely, draft a ILB in round 3 to replace him.  That saves us $17 mil we can use on Huff

This. Huff IS our pass rush. It's speculation that it will be there without him, teven though there are some potentialities. And your otherpost raises a great point--Huff is a  more known quantity than any offense signings that we would make with his money.

[bonkertons]

Yeah I dunno.  On one hand I agree Huff is clearly the best pass rusher we've had since Abraham.  On the other, edge is the one area where this regime has been able to consistently find talent.  You just drafted McDonald in the 1st who is projected to be a similar type player: pass rush specialist.   I just don't see them doing that only to follow it up by locking in Huff for like $20M, which caps McDonald's future here as a rotational player.  It's not like they didn't know what Huff was when they took McDonald.  

 

I would love to have Huff back, but I'd understand if JD thought that money could be better used to solidify the offense while trusting in their ability to find talent on the DL.  I mean, they did find Huff after all.  Undrafted.  I'm sure they could find a decent depth pass rusher in a similar way.  They won't need that guy to be Huff as long as McDonald takes a big jump, which I'm sure they are expecting.  

[Creepy Lurker]

8 hours ago, Rich Thornburgh said:

Rubbish 

 

Cut Mosely, draft a ILB in round 3 to replace him.  That saves us $17 mil we can use on Huff

I’m all for anything that involves cutting Mosley. 

[chirorob]

On 1/24/2024 at 6:14 PM, CanadaSteve said:

There were options talked about with sign and trade.  

Otherwise, he would probably garner a 3rd round comp pick.

Jets only get the comp pick if they don't sign matching # of free agents.   If they do, they lose the pick and get nada.

[Ghost]

On 1/25/2024 at 9:44 AM, Sperm Edwards said:

That won't happen. No one's tagging Bryce Huff like he's an established probowl starter, let alone to get someone to match that amount annually so they can pry a 2nd round pick out of another team.

First off, if they transition tag him all they get is the right to match, but are entitled to no picks in return if they don't. That's why it's almost never used.

Second, because the his transition tag amount would still be north of $20MM (he should win any grievance with the league that he's a DE not an OLB, if he was ever tagged). Except who's going to pay anywhere near that ludicrous amount on a multi-year deal for Huff in the first place? Huff just hasn't demonstrated he's that level of player. He hasn't even demonstrated he's a starter (let alone an upper-level starter), and while fans are appropriately disgruntled with the coaching staff, in terms of defensive coaching Saleh/Ulbrich have good reputations for knowing what they're doing with their own defensive players, and if they don't think he's an every down starter that'll hold some weight with other teams.

IOW if they transition tag Huff, he's not going anywhere for the year. He'll be on the Jets at a bloated amount that's probably pushing twice what he's actually worth, plus they can't lower that $20MM+ hit with void years, and will just be in the same situation with him again a year later. 

He's a good player and I'd like it if Douglas locked him up earlier -- the best opportunity was when no one else showed interest in him under the 2nd round tender, but before drafting McDonald & guaranteeing Lawson's '23 season.

But again a year later, Jets fans are badly overestimating his value again. The same thing happened last year when people were screaming about the supposed benightedness of not RFA-tagging Huff with a 1st round tender, because they'd surely lose him to a contender and "only" get a late 2nd rounder in return. Meanwhile no one matched the 2nd round tender for him, no one contacted him to see if they could lock him up for cheap if they had to give up a pick, and no one contacted the Jets to see if they'd take a lower pick than a 2nd for him, so far as we know. 

He's probably looking at a $12-13MM ceiling as a UFA, if he gets even that. If it means a starting job elsewhere, he'll probably take less money to play for a different team than be used situationally again for the Jets. That figure may be a bargain for his new team if he balls out as a starter, but right now the idea of tagging him for the year at north of $20MM is unrealistic (if not outright nonsensical), let alone to get someone to pay the Jets a 2nd rounder to pry him away at that rate.

You think he’s going to get 12-13 mill per year if he hits FA? 

[CanadaSteve]

12 hours ago, Rich Thornburgh said:

Rubbish 

 

Cut Mosely, draft a ILB in round 3 to replace him.  That saves us $17 mil we can use on Huff

Yeah....Sorry, I would rather have at least one starter on the OL than having 5 pass-rushers.

[CanadaSteve]

6 hours ago, bonkertons said:

  I would love to have Huff back, but I'd understand if JD thought that money could be better used to solidify the offense while trusting in their ability to find talent on the DL.  I mean, they did find Huff after all.  Undrafted.  I'm sure they could find a decent depth pass rusher in a similar way.  They won't need that guy to be Huff as long as McDonald takes a big jump, which I'm sure they are expecting.  

If McDonald takes a jump like Jermaine Johnson did this year, and Johnson improves again, Huff will not be needed, considering too we get pass rush help from JFM and Quinnen as well. 

[Sperm Edwards]

34 minutes ago, Ghost said:

You think he’s going to get 12-13 mill per year if he hits FA? 

Hard to say. I could see him getting closer to $11-12MM and while I don't think he's proven he's worth it I wouldn't be floored in amazement if he got north of that in the $15-17MM range. Because he's not been a starter it's eye of the beholder.

[Beerfish]

13 hours ago, Rich Thornburgh said:

Rubbish 

 

Cut Mosely, draft a ILB in round 3 to replace him.  That saves us $17 mil we can use on Huff

People can;t figure this one out.   ILBs that make some tackles, by far the easiest thing to find in fa or reclamation projects or mid draft.

Pass rushers you have developed that are by far a bigger impact, tough to find or you have to use big resources.

[Alworth]

3 hours ago, Beerfish said:

People can;t figure this one out.   ILBs that make some tackles, by far the easiest thing to find in fa or reclamation projects or mid draft.

Pass rushers you have developed that are by far a bigger impact, tough to find or you have to use big resources.

Yup. Huff in, CJ out should be a no-brainer here but isn't.

[Ghost]

15 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Hard to say. I could see him getting closer to $11-12MM and while I don't think he's proven he's worth it I wouldn't be floored in amazement if he got north of that in the $15-17MM range. Because he's not been a starter it's eye of the beholder.

Come on Sperm. He’s getting 16 per, 100%. If not, I’ll buy you a beer at a game one day. 

[Barton]

McDonald wasnt drafted to replace Bryce Huff, imo. Huff at that point had like 6 or 7 career sacks. 

Saleh loves his Dline and rotating guys in waves. They believe in extra pass rushers. Not just 1 or 2. Thats why they picked McDonald.

They also discussed long term deals with Huff in the past few months, as well. 

What they did, IMO, was just under estimate how good Huff is. 

[Alka]

On 1/25/2024 at 1:46 PM, Sperm Edwards said:

That said, no doubt sacks are a sexy statistic and there's an optics to reaching double digits in that category.

The sacks are great, but the pressure he exerts on the QB is actually more impressive than the sacks.  His win rate against offensive linemen are the tops of the league, and the pressure forces the QB into mistakes, and helps get the defense off the field.

As a specialist, in a league that wins on passing, he is among the best.  He deserves to get paid as a top level edge rushing specialist.

To me, he warrants 12-14M per year.  Yes, not top tier defensive lineman money, but still, not bad.  Remember, Quinnen got $24M per year, as he is worth it.  I think Huff is worth 10M less, if we could get him for that.

[LAD_Brooklyn]

2 hours ago, Barton said:

McDonald wasnt drafted to replace Bryce Huff, imo. Huff at that point had like 6 or 7 career sacks. 

Saleh loves his Dline and rotating guys in waves. They believe in extra pass rushers. Not just 1 or 2. Thats why they picked McDonald.

They also discussed long term deals with Huff in the past few months, as well. 

What they did, IMO, was just under estimate how good Huff is. 

I thought McDonald was drafted to replace  Carl Lawson. As already stated, they didn't know Huff was going to explode to this degree. 

[Rich Thornburgh]

On 1/26/2024 at 11:05 PM, CanadaSteve said:

Yeah....Sorry, I would rather have at least one starter on the OL than having 5 pass-rushers.

He’s our edge rusher since Abraham.  We can still fix the OL it ain’t that hard, JD and Woody just make it look hard because they can’t evaluate talent