Top 10 taking shape

[Doggin94it]

With FA playing out, the top 10 is coming into greater focus. Just wanted to run 2 quick mocks for what it could look like - 1 assuming no trades, the other assuming there are trades

No Trades

1, 2, 3 - Bears: Caleb Williams; Commanders: Jayden Daniels; Patriots, Drake Maye - this looks pretty locked in, with the only real question being which QB goes to which team. Outside chance the Pats take Harrison at 3 and roll with Brissett as their starting QB, but that's pretty unlikely, especially given that he signed only a 1 year deal. Their plan can't be to go into next offseason without their intended starting QB under contract.

4 - Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr. - never has a draft pick been more telegraphed. They need a WR1 and a generational prospect is sitting there for them. Done.

5 - Chargers: Malik Nabers - maybe they prefer Rome Odunze, but if they stay at 5 (and I actually expect them to trade out) this pick has to be a WR. Their current depth chart is Josh Palmer, first round disappointment Quentin Johnson (won't say bust yet, but he's trending that way) and punt returner Derius Davis. That's it. 

6 - NYG: JJ McCarthy - the buzz here is just too strong

7 - Titans: Joe Alt - I really wanted a scenario where Alt slips down to us, but I don't see it happening. Need and value match too well, here, especially given how strong Tennessee is going on surrounding Will Levis with weapons; Ridley, Hopkins, Pollard and Spears are well and good, but only if Levis stays upright.

8 - Falcons: Terrion Arnold - Could be Rome Odunze here but they just signed Mooney and traded for Rondale Moore to round out their WR room and the defense needs some attention

9 - Bears: Dallas Turner - pick your pass rusher preference from among Turner, Verse, and Latu. This defense needs some attention.

10 - Jets: Choice of OT2 or Odunze.

With Trades

1-4: Same

5: Vikings - JJ McCarthy. Has a trade ever been more telegraphed? They need to come up ahead of the Giants for McCarthy and they just got the ammo to do it.

6: Giants - Nabers. If McCarthy is gone, they draft a weapon for Jones/Lock/Cutlets

7-8: Same

9: Chargers - the Chargers move back up in a trade with the Bears to get ahead of the Jets for Odunze. Again, their WR room is a wasteland, they can't risk the Jets thinking the value of Odunze is too good to pass up on.

10: Jets - pick your OT2. Latham? Fashanu? Whoever it is, that's your guy.

[jvill 51]

Things became very interesting after today’s moves. It seems like almost a certainty now that 4 QBs go in the top 6 and one of Nabers/Odunze will fall to 10 unless someone else trades to 8 or 9. If the Jets land Mike Williams they are suddenly set up beautifully to either stick at 10 and pick whoever they prefer of Bowers, WR that drops, OT that drops. But they would also have the flexibility to trade down, especially if the big 3 receivers are gone, and stick a guy like Mims behind Tyron/Moses for a year while picking up extra picks and maybe breaking into the second round.

All of which is to say, they’ll most likely stick at 10 and pick the highest rated DL on the board.

[BCJet]

The situation as I see it is that there cant be much separation between Fashanu, Latham, Fuaga, Guyton and even Jordan Morgan, so why not take whatever you can get to move down?

My personal choice would be to move into the teens and take Guyton to develop for a year.  If you get lucky, you can take a full year and offseason (2024-25 not this offseason) for him to learn to play LT. and start him there openign day 2025 while playing swing tackle in 2024.  You can pick up a 2nd rounder which allows you to take someone like McKonkey or Roman Wilson and really round out the roster.

[JustInFudge]

Call me crazy but if anything, FA has made this top 10 even more confusing.  lol  

Like it's almost becoming consensus that 7 of the first 10 picks are going to be QB and WR.  Like, has that ever happened? 

 

[Adoni Beast]

1 minute ago, JustInFudge said:

Call me crazy but if anything, FA has made this top 10 even more confusing.  lol  

Like it's almost becoming consensus that 7 of the first 10 picks are going to be QB and WR.  Like, has that ever happened? 

 

I expect a lot of trade ups/downs in the top 10 picks. Could make for an interesting and wild Day 1.

[Augustiniak]

28 minutes ago, Adoni Beast said:

I expect a lot of trade ups/downs in the top 10 picks. Could make for an interesting and wild Day 1.

It will get crazy fast if NE trades out to minny, meaning NE is out of the top 10.  Then if the giants don’t take a qb, you will have teams right behind the jets looking to get mccarthy.  

[bonkertons]

I think there’s definitely a scenario where Odunze now drops to 10. Maybe even Nabers instead depending on how teams like the Chargers and Giants value those two. 
 

We’re in a pretty great spot to just sit back and let the board play out. This doesn’t feel like last year, which would have been the equivalent of praying Alt drops to 10 and then getting desperate to trade out when he doesn’t. It seems like, at the very least, Bowers will be there at 10 who is a great consolation prize. 
 

Worst case, if our strategy ends up being “we need to walk away with a WR2 no matter what”, I think you could just take Brian Thomas Jr at 10 and most people would be fine with it. He’s the type of guy you could try to trade down for but there’s a good chance he’ll get snatched up if you do that. It seems pretty clear that there’s the big 3 WRs, then BTJ, and then a group behind him of like 3 or 4 guys. 

[Adoni Beast]

21 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

It will get crazy fast if NE trades out to minny, meaning NE is out of the top 10.  Then if the giants don’t take a qb, you will have teams right behind the jets looking to get mccarthy.  

Which is kind of crazy. I like McCarthy a lot actually but that’s not a top 10 pick and he will need to sit for a year or so before starting.

[Augustiniak]

13 minutes ago, Adoni Beast said:

Which is kind of crazy. I like McCarthy a lot actually but that’s not a top 10 pick and he will need to sit for a year or so before starting.

Mccarthy fits well here but the jets can’t take a qb at 10.  Seems like minny and denver are going after him.  

[tdoublee]

I think Maye is going to drop and that's going to shake up the top 10. Some of the folks that have actual NFL and scout experience are putting JJ and Nix ahead of him. He needs a lot of development.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

[David Harris]

If a trade down isn’t possible I don’t think JD drafts a TE over an OT.  A Trent Williams is so much more valuable than a George Kittle and as a former lineman JD has PTSD after how badly his offensive lines have performed.

With Smith and Moses 33 years old on one year deals I see an OT coming and personally hope it’s Fashanu.

Fashanu, Odunze, then any other OT is my preference. We are win now but I give JD credit for not going nuts in FA, he’s from Baltimore and I think he still wants to build a sustainable organization that sets itself up for the long haul and that’s an OT in this draft.

[bonkertons]

10 hours ago, David Harris said:

If a trade down isn’t possible I don’t think JD drafts a TE over an OT.  A Trent Williams is so much more valuable than a George Kittle and as a former lineman JD has PTSD after how badly his offensive lines have performed.

With Smith and Moses 33 years old on one year deals I see an OT coming and personally hope it’s Fashanu.

Fashanu, Odunze, then any other OT is my preference. We are win now but I give JD credit for not going nuts in FA, he’s from Baltimore and I think he still wants to build a sustainable organization that sets itself up for the long haul and that’s an OT in this draft.

If this happens we should never draft an OT outside of the first 2 rounds again. The whole point of signing a guy like Smith for me was that we could continue to develop Warren. Signing Smith and then still drafting a LT in the 1st basically concedes that Warren ain’t sh*t, or they have no intention of developing him. 
 

I really hope this doesn’t happen, nor do I think it will. I’ll be shocked if it’s not a WR. Hell I’d expect a defensive player before I see us taking a tackle in the 1st. Our hotseat regime will want a guy who is a lock to contribute this year. 

[David Harris]

23 hours ago, bonkertons said:

If this happens we should never draft an OT outside of the first 2 rounds again. The whole point of signing a guy like Smith for me was that we could continue to develop Warren. Signing Smith and then still drafting a LT in the 1st basically concedes that Warren ain’t sh*t, or they have no intention of developing him. 
 

I really hope this doesn’t happen, nor do I think it will. I’ll be shocked if it’s not a WR. Hell I’d expect a defensive player before I see us taking a tackle in the 1st. Our hotseat regime will want a guy who is a lock to contribute this year. 

It's unlikely Smith AND Moses both stay healthy and then we'd be pinning the season on the development of Carter Warren.  Max Mitchell utterly failed in this model when expected to step up as the starting RT after mid round development.  

We're win now as we have both OT spots filled on paper so I understand wanting another position for this season.  However, I think we're win now and therefore we should get an OT because the season could get submarined if/when Smith or Moses go down.

[bonkertons]

5 minutes ago, David Harris said:

It's unlikely Smith AND Moses both stay healthy and then we'd be pinning the season on the development of Carter Warren.  Max Mitchell utterly failed in this model when expected to step up as the starting RT after mid round development.  

We're win now as we have both OT spots filled on paper so I understand wanting another position for this season.  However, I think we're win now and therefore we should get an OT because the season could get submarined if/when Smith or Moses go down.

This completely ignores the fact that you can just sign depth players.  That seems like the much safer route to go vs investing your top-10 pick on a "just incase" player.  Also Moses has missed 3 games in like 9 years.  I'm not worried about him. 

 

Go sign a veteran swing tackle and draft a weapon.  Simple.  Right now we have ONE weapon on the roster.  Even if you sign Mike Williams, you still are thin af behind them, and Williams himself has had his own issues with injury.  The difference is, if we draft a WR and Williams stays healthy, our draft pick will still see significant playing time.  If our OL stays healthy, our draft pick won't.  

 

Let's call it what it is, if we take an OT at 10...it's a future investment.  If you're trying to protect our 2024 chances, the obvious play is to sign a veteran...even draft a kid in the 3rd if you want.  That's fine by me.  10th overall though?  No thanks.  That could be a legit game-changing talent that we'd be passing on.  I'm not using that pick on depth.  

[Augustiniak]

26 minutes ago, bonkertons said:

This completely ignores the fact that you can just sign depth players.  That seems like the much safer route to go vs investing your top-10 pick on a "just incase" player.  Also Moses has missed 3 games in like 9 years.  I'm not worried about him. 

 

Go sign a veteran swing tackle and draft a weapon.  Simple.  Right now we have ONE weapon on the roster.  Even if you sign Mike Williams, you still are thin af behind them, and Williams himself has had his own issues with injury.  The difference is, if we draft a WR and Williams stays healthy, our draft pick will still see significant playing time.  If our OL stays healthy, our draft pick won't.  

 

Let's call it what it is, if we take an OT at 10...it's a future investment.  If you're trying to protect our 2024 chances, the obvious play is to sign a veteran...even draft a kid in the 3rd if you want.  That's fine by me.  10th overall though?  No thanks.  That could be a legit game-changing talent that we'd be passing on.  I'm not using that pick on depth.  

If the main goal is to make the playoffs in 2024 “or else” then the best use of the draft pick is a weapon to score points.  Teams are already doubling garrett and it’s not good.  Good wrs aren’t available in FA and guys like Jefferson and diggs are simply too expensive in trades.  Draft your own weapons and develop guys on the OL like warren who can fill in as needed and perhaps eventually start. 

[bicketybam]

1 minute ago, Augustiniak said:

If the main goal is to make the playoffs in 2024 “or else” then the best use of the draft pick is a weapon to score points.  Teams are already doubling garrett and it’s not good.  Good wrs aren’t available in FA and guys like Jefferson and diggs are simply too expensive in trades.  Draft your own weapons and develop guys on the OL like warren who can fill in as needed and perhaps eventually start. 

Diggs? Hard pass.

[bonkertons]

6 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

If the main goal is to make the playoffs in 2024 “or else” then the best use of the draft pick is a weapon to score points.  Teams are already doubling garrett and it’s not good.  Good wrs aren’t available in FA and guys like Jefferson and diggs are simply too expensive in trades.  Draft your own weapons and develop guys on the OL like warren who can fill in as needed and perhaps eventually start. 

There should be some solid investment tackles in the 3rd.  Just going by PFF rankings, you got Patrick Paul, Kiran Amegadjie, Dominick Puni, Blake Fischer(Christian Jones is another who seems to be rising to that range) - all expected to go around pick 72.  If it's immediate depth and future investment you want, that seems like a good spot for it.  Win/win - you get your Tyron Smith insurance AND you get an elite weapon to pair with Garrett.

 

I really hope we don't **** this up lol

[David Harris]

1 hour ago, bonkertons said:

This completely ignores the fact that you can just sign depth players.  That seems like the much safer route to go vs investing your top-10 pick on a "just incase" player.  Also Moses has missed 3 games in like 9 years.  I'm not worried about him. 

 

Go sign a veteran swing tackle and draft a weapon.  Simple.  Right now we have ONE weapon on the roster.  Even if you sign Mike Williams, you still are thin af behind them, and Williams himself has had his own issues with injury.  The difference is, if we draft a WR and Williams stays healthy, our draft pick will still see significant playing time.  If our OL stays healthy, our draft pick won't.  

 

Let's call it what it is, if we take an OT at 10...it's a future investment.  If you're trying to protect our 2024 chances, the obvious play is to sign a veteran...even draft a kid in the 3rd if you want.  That's fine by me.  10th overall though?  No thanks.  That could be a legit game-changing talent that we'd be passing on.  I'm not using that pick on depth.  

I understand drafting a weapon at 10, if Nabers or Odunze are there than I certainly would get on board, Bowers I'd be mixed on.  I think what JD is trying to do and which I agree with is building a perennial contender and the way to do that is by anticipating needs and building a pipeline.  This is a special draft class for OL, the likes of which may never happen again, both OT spots will be major needs a year from now.  I'm saying get ahead of it and get a young stud in the pipeline who most likely will end up playing a significant portion of the year as a starter somewhere along the line.  A lot of this draft class has 4 position versatility, both guard and both tackle spots.  Have him compete for LG and learn the other 4 spots, and then next season when we have no Tackles signed with two 34-year-old FA's, the draft pick is already in house, and we don't have to panic like we did last season once Broderick Jones went off the board. 

[bonkertons]

3 minutes ago, David Harris said:

I understand drafting a weapon at 10, if Nabers or Odunze are there than I certainly would get on board, Bowers I'd be mixed on.  I think what JD is trying to do and which I agree with is building a perennial contender and the way to do that is by anticipating needs and building a pipeline.  This is a special draft class for OL, the likes of which may never happen again, both OT spots will be major needs a year from now.  I'm saying get ahead of it and get a young stud in the pipeline who most likely will end up playing a significant portion of the year as a starter somewhere along the line.  A lot of this draft class has 4 position versatility, both guard and both tackle spots.  Have him compete for LG and learn the other 4 spots, and then next season when we have no Tackles signed with two 34-year-old FA's, the draft pick is already in house, and we don't have to panic like we did last season once Broderick Jones went off the board. 

There are tackles signed next year though.  Warren and Mitchell.  Again maybe not tackles you like, but still tackles.  

 

Also I don't agree that this is some generational tackle class.  It's fine, but nothing special.  2022 was considered "elite" with guys like Okwenu, Neal, and Cross.  Alt looks like an elite tackle, but the rest are all crapshoots like usual.  The same type of guys who are available every year.  

 

If your concern is depth and future, that's fine, but to me that's 3rd round territory - not 10th overall.  Go draft a Patrick Paul or Blake Fisher in the 3rd if you'd like.  Continue developing your young tackles.  If it's still a need next year, then you can go draft one in the 1st.  I'll have an easier time believing we'll have a chance to draft another Troy Fautanu next year than I will in us being able to draft another Brock Bowers next year, or even a BTJ.  

 

We need to start figuring out how to develop OL outside of the 1st round.  

[PepPep]

I am going to go ahead and say that Fashanu and Brian Thomas Jr. are becoming really good candidates for Jet selections at 10.

Fashanu was a top 5 pick who seems to have slid on many boards and now will probably be available at 10. However he is a true LT prospect who excels in pass protection. If he can stay healthy, this selection will be worth its weight in gold. I don't think anybody truly expects Smith to play all 17 games and we all know he is not the future at LT for the Jets. Drafting Fashanu, a potential Franchise LT would be a smart move, even if he is not an immediate starter in year one.

Thomas Jr. on the other hand was considered a mid 1st round pick but has been a consistent riser and after blowing up the combine many consider him to be in the 2nd WR tier with Odunze. In fact, I think some prefer him to Odunze, it just depends on the type of receiver you are looking for as they are a bit different in their skillset. We all know Lazard's struggles and the Jet's desperate need at WR before they signed M.Williams. But even with Williams on board, drafting a stud like Thomas Jr. would be a really smart move. Especially with Williams coming off an ACL. 

[nycdan]

23 hours ago, PepPep said:

I am going to go ahead and say that Fashanu and Brian Thomas Jr. are becoming really good candidates for Jet selections at 10.

Fashanu was a top 5 pick who seems to have slid on many boards and now will probably be available at 10. However he is a true LT prospect who excels in pass protection. If he can stay healthy, this selection will be worth its weight in gold. I don't think anybody truly expects Smith to play all 17 games and we all know he is not the future at LT for the Jets. Drafting Fashanu, a potential Franchise LT would be a smart move, even if he is not an immediate starter in year one.

Thomas Jr. on the other hand was considered a mid 1st round pick but has been a consistent riser and after blowing up the combine many consider him to be in the 2nd WR tier with Odunze. In fact, I think some prefer him to Odunze, it just depends on the type of receiver you are looking for as they are a bit different in their skillset. We all know Lazard's struggles and the Jet's desperate need at WR before they signed M.Williams. But even with Williams on board, drafting a stud like Thomas Jr. would be a really smart move. Especially with Williams coming off an ACL. 

I haven't seen anything that suggested Thomas is considered equal to Odunze.  In fact, I've seen Odunze ranked just behind Nabers and far ahead of BT overall in almost every list.  Having said that, many mocks have Harrison and Nabers gone top-6 and Odunze going 9 to CHI.  That usually leaves us with a choice of Bowers or any OT not named Alt.  Kind of sucks that there's such demand for WRs this year and nearly no defensive players likely to go top-9.

Having said all that, it seems like having a conditional trade with ATL at 8 could make a lot of sense IF we value Odunze much higher than BT.  ATL is thought to be going with Turner (DE) and he would be there at 10 for them.  The cost to move up could be a little more than our 4th rounder.  If Odunze is a true WR1 prospect, I don't think it's too high a price to pay.  That would stack us with skill position weapons and set us up nicely in case Mike Williams misses games.

I can totally see the OT play.  I can't even hate Bowers.  But I think Odunze is the guy that helps us the most right now. 

[PS17]

3 hours ago, nycdan said:

I haven't seen anything that suggested Thomas is considered equal to Odunze.  In fact, I've seen Odunze ranked just behind Nabers and far ahead of BT overall in almost every list.  Having said that, many mocks have Harrison and Nabers gone top-6 and Odunze going 9 to CHI.  That usually leaves us with a choice of Bowers or any OT not named Alt.  Kind of sucks that there's such demand for WRs this year and nearly no defensive players likely to go top-9.

Having said all that, it seems like having a conditional trade with ATL at 8 could make a lot of sense IF we value Odunze much higher than BT.  ATL is thought to be going with Turner (DE) and he would be there at 10 for them.  The cost to move up could be a little more than our 4th rounder.  If Odunze is a true WR1 prospect, I don't think it's too high a price to pay.  That would stack us with skill position weapons and set us up nicely in case Mike Williams misses games.

I can totally see the OT play.  I can't even hate Bowers.  But I think Odunze is the guy that helps us the most right now. 

A small trade up to 8 for Odunze feels like a slam dunk move. 

[jetstream23]

On 3/21/2024 at 4:32 PM, PS17 said:

A small trade up to 8 for Odunze feels like a slam dunk move. 

This is such a deep Draft at OT that I think JD wants to trade back, not up.  I think he wants to walk away from this Draft with both a WR and OT.  Only way he can do that is if he trades back from #10 into the teens to try to get a 2nd round pick.

What ammo would the Jets use to trade up for Odunze?  It would leave the cupboard bare.

 

[hawk]

I see all these mock trades that have Vikings going to 5.  First, why does everyone having the chargers moving out and for what compensation?  They just lost their top 2 WRs and need Oline help, so I can see the desire to add resources. 

Second, the Vikings have the fire power to get to 2, and Washington has rumbling of their desire to move back.  

NEP trade back with Giants for Jones and 6+?

I could also see the Falcons making a move it to try and get their top WR.  Their defense was solid last year and shiny new toy in Cousins.  Drake, Pitts, Robinson and a MHJ?  

Bottom line, I can see a lot of fireworks at the front end of the draft.

Hell, I can see a possible trade up from our Beloved Jets for a top Tackle or WR.  FTR, I always want a trade back in the top 15, just throwing out the flashy move.

Just a few possible shake ups I can see.

[derp]

7 minutes ago, hawk said:

I see all these mock trades that have Vikings going to 5.  First, why does everyone having the chargers moving out and for what compensation?  They just lost their top 2 WRs and need Oline help, so I can see the desire to add resources. 

Second, the Vikings have the fire power to get to 2, and Washington has rumbling of their desire to move back.  

NEP trade back with Giants for Jones and 6+?

I could also see the Falcons making a move it to try and get their top WR.  Their defense was solid last year and shiny new toy in Cousins.  Drake, Pitts, Robinson and a MHJ?  

Bottom line, I can see a lot of fireworks at the front end of the draft.

Hell, I can see a possible trade up from our Beloved Jets for a top Tackle or WR.  FTR, I always want a trade back in the top 15, just throwing out the flashy move.

Just a few possible shake ups I can see.

Chargers have telegraphed they want out. New coach, top heavy roster with poor depth that’s disappointed a lot recently. Seems like they want to add a RT but don’t need to be at 5 to do that, especially in this class.

Vikings could absolutely get up higher than five if they want to. I lean that way as well.

Jones probably has negative value with his contract. Patriots can just start Brissett. Giants may want to move up though.

Falcons just paid Mooney and traded for Moore. Feels like defense.

[David Harris]

On 3/21/2024 at 7:32 PM, PS17 said:

A small trade up to 8 for Odunze feels like a slam dunk move. 

Is the lack of separation on the college level a concern?

[David Harris]

On 3/20/2024 at 4:20 PM, PepPep said:

I am going to go ahead and say that Fashanu and Brian Thomas Jr. are becoming really good candidates for Jet selections at 10.

Fashanu was a top 5 pick who seems to have slid on many boards and now will probably be available at 10. However he is a true LT prospect who excels in pass protection. If he can stay healthy, this selection will be worth its weight in gold. I don't think anybody truly expects Smith to play all 17 games and we all know he is not the future at LT for the Jets. Drafting Fashanu, a potential Franchise LT would be a smart move, even if he is not an immediate starter in year one.

Thomas Jr. on the other hand was considered a mid 1st round pick but has been a consistent riser and after blowing up the combine many consider him to be in the 2nd WR tier with Odunze. In fact, I think some prefer him to Odunze, it just depends on the type of receiver you are looking for as they are a bit different in their skillset. We all know Lazard's struggles and the Jet's desperate need at WR before they signed M.Williams. But even with Williams on board, drafting a stud like Thomas Jr. would be a really smart move. Especially with Williams coming off an ACL. 

Without renting Tyron for a year, Olu would be a slam dunk pick.

Obviously we’re win now but I have a hard time passing on a pure LT prospect with elite upside without a longterm replacement.  
 

I get 2024 but Olu could be a cornerstone for a long time at the 2nd most important position. I’ve seen comps to Brick and it kinda fits. 

[Augustiniak]

8 hours ago, David Harris said:

Without renting Tyron for a year, Olu would be a slam dunk pick.

Obviously we’re win now but I have a hard time passing on a pure LT prospect with elite upside without a longterm replacement.  
 

I get 2024 but Olu could be a cornerstone for a long time at the 2nd most important position. I’ve seen comps to Brick and it kinda fits. 

I agree he reminds me of brick.  Again the real issue with taking him is that you just signed smith and where are you playing the 10th pick in the draft on opening day?