Really good article on the four likely 1st rd QBs.

[HessStation]

I'm not 100% sold on Bortles. I am absolutely sold on the other 2. However if the Jets took Bortles, I would be very happy. I'm not sold on the kid, but I am willing to give him a shot.

Bortles is like a poor mans Cam Newton. If they give him time and don't destroy his confidence in year one he could be very good.

[artemusclyde]

That's fine, but do you also think it's fair to assume that one reason he struggled against the best competition he faced, was because the USC defense out-matched his offense at every position? Very much like Cutler when he played at Vanderbilt, just on a much more extreme level. That's why games like the Senior Bowl are so important, it shows how they all do with equal footing. I think Carr is better than the USC game, but not sure how much so as I didn't take the time to watch Fresno State play this year.

 

That's what I've been saying all along for the Carr hate. If he falls to us in the 2nd we should take him, hell I'd take him in the first at 18. The kid's smart, he was pointing out blitzes and was dealing with a hard pass rush. The kid was getting creamed out their and his line couldn't block worth sh*t. That team was just out matched by USC by in terms of coaching and talent. 

[artemusclyde]

Oh no, thats a fair point, but what I did learn is that if I have a suspect offensive line, that struggles against blitz assignments, then I probably dont want CARR, but if i have an offensive line like say the Bronco's, then he could probably be respectable. The Jets o-line in my opinion is good, not great, but good, so Carr behind that line? Maybe.

 

Bad comparison. That o line couldn't block anyone, and Carr was pointing out the blitzes and they still couldn't pick it up. That awful protection was on his o line, he was running for his life out their.

[joewillie78]

Definitely is a very difficult player to evaluate. He's going to be a top 5 pick on many boards and taken off other's completely. I don't see his personality sitting well in Cleveland, but god damn that franchise could use a boost and Josh Gordon can be his new Mike Evans.  He's good for the game even if you don't like him, as everyone loves someone to hate. Ala Brady.

Really, can Houston (if they stay there) realistically pass him up, the home grown kid? I dont think so, and is Bridgewater rated that much higher than Manziel? McShay has them seperated by only a few points.

 

And the Cleveland owner is GA-GA over Manziel.

 

Draft day with all these QB's is going to be a circus. I may need a 30 pack for that day. I cant wait. This years draft should be the best in years.

[LionelRichie]

Bortles is like a poor mans Cam Newton. If they give him time and don't destroy his confidence in year one he could be very good.

 

Bortles ceiling is Jake Locker.    

[artemusclyde]

What made Cutler so intriguing was how he was able to carve up superior completion with less talent a la Florida when they were dominant. That and a rocket arm.

 

Carr has a quick release and a big arm, he's definitely an intriguing prospect. I'd also honestly say he's also the smartest qb after Bridgewater.

[joewillie78]

Bad comparison. That o line couldn't block anyone, and Carr was pointing out the blitzes and they still couldn't pick it up. That awful protection was on his o line, he was running for his life out their.

I agree, that O-line was embarrassing. BUT remember, and again I am just playing Devils advocate. His brother came from the same program and was a complete failure. How does that factor in?

[joewillie78]

Bortles ceiling is Jake Locker.    

Wow, thats not very high.

[artemusclyde]

I agree, that O-line was embarrassing. BUT remember, and again I am just playing Devils advocate. His brother came from the same program and was a complete failure. How does that factor in?

 

Doesn't factor in at all. Palmer's brother sucks, Palmer before the injury was a pretty good qb.

[TuscanyTile2]

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/45952/349/2014s-quarterback-conundrum

I can't cut and paste it because of the charts, but it compares Bridgewater, Manziel, Carr, and Bortles--their accuracy, where they throw the ball, how they are under pressure. For the lazy, it says that Bridgewater is the best overall passer, Carr is probably the next Sanchez, Manziel is surprisingly accurate, and Bortles has been good, but not great.

 

I've never seen Bortles play but I'm all for the Jets drafting him if it means his smoking hot girlfriend would constantly being on Jet telecasts.

[joewillie78]

I've never seen Bortles play but I'm all for the Jets drafting him if it means his smoking hot girlfriend would constantly being on Jet telecasts.

Hotter than McCarrons? Cant be

 

McCarrons is a freaking 11.

[artemusclyde]

I've never seen Bortles play but I'm all for the Jets drafting him if it means his smoking hot girlfriend would constantly being on Jet telecasts.

 

Carr has a hot wife. Manziel also has a hot girlfriend.

[artemusclyde]

Hotter than McCarrons? Cant be

 

McCarrons is a freaking 11.

 

McCarron sucks. Don't want him in on this team, I'd take his girlfriend though.

[joewillie78]

McCarron sucks. Don't want him in on this team, I'd take his girlfriend though.

His girlfriend is like Miss Alabama or something like that. Isnt she the babe that Mussberger was drooling over in the title game last year?

[artemusclyde]

His girlfriend is like Miss Alabama or something like that. Isnt she the babe that Mussberger was drooling over in the title game last year?

 

Yup.

[joewillie78]

Yup.

Not that I hold it against him, I would have been drooling too.

[dbatesman]

McCarron's girlfriend looks like a piece of jerky.

[T0mShane]

McCarron's girlfriend looks like a piece of jerky.

Venison

[slats]

McCarron's girlfriend looks like a piece of jerky.

Now Crusher is drooling, too.

[BroadwayJoe12]

Hotter than McCarrons? Cant be

 

McCarrons is a freaking 11.

 

Sweet lord, this picture couldn't be any more perfect for you and the running coors lite gag if I photo-shopped it myself.

 

[BroadwayJoe12]

McCarron's girlfriend looks like a piece of jerky.

 

Are all girls in the south gorgeous from 18-23 and then just drop off a cliff from too much sun? I swear that everyone I met running track from FSU, UF, Texas, Georgia etc. was an absolute smokeshow and then a couple years after undergrad they just look like train wrecks, comparatively.

[Villain The Foe]

2014's Quarterback Conundrum

Thursday, January 09, 2014

 

 

With respect to quarterbacks in the draft, you’ll always hear pundits make observations such as, “this QB has a great deep ball” or “he always folds when he’s under pressure in the pocket.” But how do you know those are true and not bias from a small sample of observed snaps? The simple answer is that you don’t. What I’ve aimed to do this year (and in years past) is to quantify those observations in an effort complement film study and analysis of draft prospects. Instead of guessing about the potency of Manziel’s deep ball, you can pull up the legitimate statistic.

 

To do that, I’ve hand charted every one of Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr, Johnny Manziel, and Blake Bortles’ attempts this year on everything from pass distance to throws against the blitz. The data here can’t render an opinion for you, but it can provide an effective complement to your knowledge on a prospect.

 

Where Did They Throw the Ball?

 

The ‘zones’ in the chart represent where the QB threw the ball on the field, that is exactly the spot the receiver caught the ball. This is to make sure yards after the catch don’t influence our opinion on the QBs.

 

 

- Most notable for Bridgewater is the lack of screens incorporated in the offense. Some have said that Bridgewater throws a high quantity of short passes, however the screens a QB normally utilizes have become short throws so thatBridgewater throws 53% of his passes in the 1-10 yard zones.

 

- Derek Carr is the complete opposite, throwing 33% of his passes behind the line of scrimmage, but few in the 1-10 yard range. The high number of attempts short mean that he throws the deep ball less than average 11.35% of the time. In addition he throws to the important intermediate zone (11-20 yards) 18.3% of the time which means overall he pushes the ball down the field less than normal.

 

- Similar to Carr, Bortles doesn’t throw the deep ball as much as average, but makes up for it by hitting intermediate routes more often - throwing from 6-20 yards 40% of the time.

 

- In an era of screen passes, Manziel threw the deep ball far more than the other QBs he’s compared to here. Manziel targeted his WRs nearly 19% of the time on passes deeper than 20 yards and still went to his intermediate targets 19% of the time.

 

How Accurate Were They?

 

This requires a bit of explaining. The chart below represents each QBs accuracy in the individual target zones when adjusting for drops by their receivers. The colors represent how that accuracy compares to the ‘Average QB’, green is better than average, yellow average, red is below-average. Let’s get to it.

 

 

- It’s pretty clear that Bridgewater cleans up in every zone except the deep ball. He’s excellent throwing the short ball where he’s about 6-7% above average for the two zones. Some have criticized Bridgewater’s deep ball, and while not bad - his completion percentage of about 51% is about average.

 

- Having a big arm is a trait that every scout desires, but that doesn’t matter if it’s not particularly effective.Derek Carr’s accuracy on 20+ yard throws is poor, coming in nearly 7% below-average. In addition, his accuracy on NFL type throws (11-20 yards) is just about as expected at 64%. His only redeeming category is in the 6-10 yard range where he is slightly above average.

 

- There an interesting dichotomy in Bortles’ throw ability. His 55% completion percentage on deep throws is extremely positive, but he’s only average on the intermediate throws hitting 64% of his total targets. However, he’s above average in the 6-10 range as well, so it’s likely that hitting that intermediate zone is just a matter of getting the touch down.

 

- For all the criticism Manziel gets, he’s extremely good at hitting his targets downfield. His ‘NFL type’ throws in the 11-20 yard range is the highest in the top 8 QBs in this class at 70.5% and he’s slightly better than Bortles at hitting the 20+ yard throws.

 

- Before we start getting into the debates about Manziel scrambling around the heaving it up for Mike Evans…his accuracy was similar when throwing solely from the pocket, hitting 67% of his 11-20 yard passes and 59% of his 20+ yard passes

 

How Do They Do Under Pressure?

 

I’ve got quite a few stats for these QBs, but for the sake of brevity I’ve picked their completion percentage while being blitzed and under pressure to highlight. For reference, a blitz counts regardless of whether the O-line picks it up, but under pressure is when the QB is moved off his spot or has to get rid of the ball quicker than anticipated.

 

  

- Upon first glance it’s pretty clear that Carr is lacking in both categories. His 50% completion percentage when under pressure is the worst among the top 8 QBs in this class and he’s not setting the world ablaze against the blitz either.

 

- When looking at both categories, Bridgewater is the clear winner. He and Bortles both complete about 63% of their passes when under pressure, but Bridgewater is heads above the other QBs against the blitz – nearly matching his ability when there are no extra rushers.

 

- Bortles has been noted for his success when under pressure and it shows here, hitting 63% of his passes when the defense is bearing down. He has the second highest completion percentage against the blitz at 71.05%.

 

- Manziel’s just about average in both categories where he’s just about where you’d expect a top notch college QB to be.

 

[Obrien2Toon]

yeah and his legacy is kinda garbage. the brother of David Carr isn't such a hot selling point. It's kinda questionable if he's a first rounder.

That's my big thing with him and why I think he'll be a bust just like David was. They're from a very born again Christian family, that has kids, lots of them, young. David had kids while still in college and now so does Derek.

Now this is all fine and all, but not for an NFL qb of today's times. Can you really see him studying film and all like Peyton and Rodgers and the rest of the top guys, when he has 3 kids by time he's 24. It's not possible.

[New York Mick]

There's zero chance the Jets are drafting a QB in the first few rounds anyway so it doesn't matter.

[77DRAFT]

Fans drop prospects after one game. NFL teams and scouts don't.

 

 

Fans drop prospects after one game. NFL teams and scouts don't.

That's why JP Loseman was a number one pick. So was Rick Minor.

[Stonehands]

Mccarron sucks

Carr sucks

Mettenberger is a freaking goob

Bortles should sit for 2 years but will probably be thrust into a starting position...and suck

Manziel might suck but might be awesome

Bridgewater rocks my world

And this was the QB class we were supposed to wait to get our franchise QB from? I agree with your assessments, too.

[Lupz27]

Which is why I asked him why he would do it and not the scouts.  For what it's worth, I think how LSU showed the world what Manziel looks like when he can't scramble is pretty damning. Those were the only two games that I saw a team keep contain and manage the broken plays and he looked absolutely lost. I know I'm biased, but I saw him run up and down the field on an Alabama team that is built to beat SEC teams that run between the tackles and are weak against mobile QBs and when he ran into a defense that took that away, he didn't look like someone that was capable of doing it all from the pocket. The kid has talent, I just don't like how his game translates to the NFL.

 

 

Well in this scenario all Manziel has to learn is to give the ball to the RB in the read option plays instead of keep it himself, once the gashing up the middle commences the D will make adjustments, and then the outside runs, and middle routes over the LB's will be wide open.  This is something Manziel will have to learn, take what the D gives you when they have a good game plan to specifically contain him, and not be selfish.

[Lupz27]

Bortles is like a poor mans Cam Newton. If they give him time and don't destroy his confidence in year one he could be very good.

 

 

Poor man?  In term of running he is more like a homeless mans Cam Newton!  Other than the bowl game, Bortles rarely if ever ran read option plays, and it was a great game plan by CFU for 2 reasons, 1. confused the hell out of Baylor as they did not prepare for it, and 2. The HC did right by Bortles knowing it was his last game, and wanted to do whatever he thought would help the kids draft stock, but Bortles won't even be as good as Luck running with the ball in the NFL.

[Gastineau Lives]

I'm not 100% sold on Bortles. I am absolutely sold on the other 2. However if the Jets took Bortles, I would be very happy. I'm not sold on the kid, but I am willing to give him a shot.

 

So you'd have the Jets trade away a good part of their draft to get a guy you're not sold on? Or do you mean you'd take him if he was there at 18?

[Gastineau Lives]

Now Crusher is drooling, too.

 

Can we have a Funniest POTW?

[#27TheDominator]

And this was the QB class we were supposed to wait to get our franchise QB from? I agree with your assessments, too.

 

Still sounds better than 2013. 

[joewillie78]

Sweet lord, this picture couldn't be any more perfect for you and the running coors lite gag if I photo-shopped it myself.

 

WOW, and she drinks the Rocky Mountain refreshment. I gotta go take a cold shower.

[bitonti]

Bortles is like a poor mans Cam Newton. If they give him time and don't destroy his confidence in year one he could be very good.

 

the best Bortles comparison I saw was "Blaine Gabbert 2: Electric Boogaloo"

[joewillie78]

So you'd have the Jets trade away a good part of their draft to get a guy you're not sold on? Or do you mean you'd take him if he was there at 18?

I have never advocated for trading up for Bortles. I have advocated that for Manziel (obviously) and Bridgewater, because I am 100% convinced that both are Franchise types.

 

Bortles is interesting but not worth the "mother load", like the other 2. If they had to lets say give up a #2 to move up 3 or 4 spots to get him, fine, BUT never the #1's they would have to move to get the top 2.

[bitonti]

David Carr got screwed.

 

it's interesting to look at this article, which highlights how Derek does poorly under pressure (blitz). Meanwhile that's exactly what David is so poor at, dealing with pressure. Maybe it's a recessive gene.