SI: The Machinery Is in Motion to Postpone the 2020 College Football Season

[CTM]

10 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

I could be wrong but wasnt the goal to flatten the numbers so hospitals didnt become overrun? I check the Florida hospital numbers a few times a week and they've been doing just that, even during the peak/spike a few weeks ago. What exactly is going on here? Seems odd that people are still pushing that the virus right now is piling up bodies in the sunbelt states. It's just not even remotely accurate.

The major hospitals ICU capacity are looking good:

https://bi.ahca.myflorida.com/t/ABICC/views/Public/ICUBedsCounty?%3AshowAppBanner=false&%3Adisplay_count=n&%3AshowVizHome=n&%3Aorigin=viz_share_link&%3AisGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y&%3Aembed=y

Yes but this is political now, the goal posts are different depending on who the subject and speaker are

[Philc1]

1 minute ago, Matt39 said:

There wouldnt be a massive wave as long as the people most susceptible still take the proper precautions. 

That’s simply not true.  We already saw a massive wave and that was with 50% shutdown

[Matt39]

Just now, Philc1 said:

The only compensation for college players is education which they won’t get this year

Do they not go to class if the season is cancelled?

[freestater]

14 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

And that is exactly my point. From everything I read, the Covid-19 strain is similar to Sars. The Sars has the same protein spike as Covid-19.

As I understand it, that is why they had such an advance on this vaccine, there was already a lot of medical headway.

That, and a large piece of distributing a vaccine, is production and distribution. They are already producing numerous vaccines that are in trial, in case one or several hit, they will already have hundreds of millions doses ready, and ready for distribution.

 

Don't get me wrong, I think they're going to beat the record for quickest by a country mile. But to say that the timeline for mass inoculations within ~6 months of it becoming a worldwide pandemic is wildly optimistic. The red tape is being fast tracked im sure, but there still has to be several rounds of trials, all with windows of months just to obtain reliable data on the efficacy, before it can be distributed. 

[Philc1]

Just now, Matt39 said:

Do they not go to class if the season is cancelled?

No

[Matt39]

Just now, Philc1 said:

That’s simply not true.  We already saw a massive wave and that was with 50% shutdown

How is it not true? Where were the hospitals overrun? Certainly not in Florida.

[Darnold Schwarzenegger]

6 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

I could be wrong but wasnt the goal to flatten the numbers so hospitals didnt become overrun? I check the Florida hospital numbers a few times a week and they've been doing just that, even during the peak/spike a few weeks ago. What exactly is going on here? Seems odd that people are still pushing that the virus right now is piling up bodies in the sunbelt states. It's just not even remotely accurate.

The major hospitals ICU capacity are looking good:

https://bi.ahca.myflorida.com/t/ABICC/views/Public/ICUBedsCounty?%3AshowAppBanner=false&%3Adisplay_count=n&%3AshowVizHome=n&%3Aorigin=viz_share_link&%3AisGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y&%3Aembed=y

 Flatten the curve has become wait for a vaccine. NJ had 5 covid deaths yesterday. Yet restrictions are tightening

[Philc1]

Just now, freestater said:

Don't get me wrong, I think they're going to beat the record for quickest by a country mile. But to say that the timeline for mass inoculations within ~6 months of it becoming a worldwide pandemic is wildly optimistic. The red tape is being fast tracked im sure, but there still has to be several rounds of trials, all with windows of months just to obtain reliable data on the efficacy, before it can be distributed. 

They physically don’t have even close to the number of vials needed to hold and transport the vaccines

the glass used to make these vials is of a different type there’s not enough in existence or production

 

[bla bla bla]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/55-of-coronavirus-patients-still-have-neurological-problems-three-months-later-study-2020-08-07

Small sample size (60 people) but it showed 55% of people who had COVID-19 have lingering neurological issues 3 months later. It's worth monitoring to see if that number would extrapolate to the larger scale of cases or if it's something flukey in the sample group. While these players may not die, I can't blame any of them for outing out.

[Scott Dierking]

4 minutes ago, freestater said:

Don't get me wrong, I think they're going to beat the record for quickest by a country mile. But to say that the timeline for mass inoculations within ~6 months of it becoming a worldwide pandemic is wildly optimistic. The red tape is being fast tracked im sure, but there still has to be several rounds of trials, all with windows of months just to obtain reliable data on the efficacy, before it can be distributed. 

3rd round of trials are in process of starting for a number of candidates. That will take a couple of months, as I hear it.

I heard on a news story the other day (so I do not have a link), that the Oxford study is going to vaccinate 40 people,  and then do the very unusual trial of actually introducing the virus to those candidates. It will be introduced by actually having current virus patients coughing into their mouths.

The suggestion is that this method will greatly accelerate 3rd round of trials. It is a controversial way of doing it.

Oddly, they feel that 40 candidates in this manner serves as a mathematical sufficient amount.

[Scott Dierking]

9 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

Do they not go to class if the season is cancelled?

Some in class, some virtually. Some a combination of both.

[Matt39]

1 minute ago, Scott Dierking said:

Some in class, some virtually. Some a combination of both.

Seems to be what most colleges are doing. I know students in some cases can opt for an all Zoom term/semester if they'd like. Course delivery would still be synchronous. 

[JoJoTownsell1]

12 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

Do they not go to class if the season is cancelled?

Most of these kids only go to class because they risk getting kicked off the team or losing their starting job, with that threat now gone I would bet attendance will be WAY down. 

[Scott Dierking]

1 minute ago, Matt39 said:

Seems to be what most colleges are doing. I know students in some cases can opt for an all Zoom term/semester if they'd like. Course delivery would still be synchronous. 

Correct. My son will be on campus (so he can work out with his team). He will have 5 classes, but 4 of them will be handled entirely virtual.

[Scott Dierking]

2 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

Most of these kids only go to class because they risk getting kicked off the team or losing their starting job, with that threat now gone I would bet attendance will be WAY down. 

That is an utterly baseless comment. Many athletes I knew in college were absolutely interested in learning, and getting a degree. They realize that only a small portion will have a football life after school. 

Are there those that don't give a damn? Of course. Just likethe  general population.

[freestater]

11 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

3rd round of trials are in process of starting for a number of candidates. That will take a couple of months, as I hear it.

I heard on a news story the other day (so I do not have a link), that the Oxford study is going to vaccinate 40 people,  and then do the very unusual trial of actually introducing the virus to those candidates. It will be introduced by actually having current virus patients coughing into their mouths.

The suggestion is that this method will greatly accelerate 3rd round of trials. It is a controversial way of doing it.

Oddly, they feel that 40 candidates in this manner serves as a mathematical sufficient amount.

Wow, that's crazy. Those volunteers got some stones.

[Philc1]

22 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

How is it not true? Where were the hospitals overrun? Certainly not in Florida.

Do you have stats saying hospitals have not been at or above in patient capacity

 

[JoJoTownsell1]

9 hours ago, Philc1 said:

Deaths are going up with hospitalizations going down because fewer people are employed and have money to pay for insurance and hospitalizations 

 

If you’re an older unemployed person with no health coverage and get the Rona and have comorbidities like diabetes and high blood pressure guess what you’re dying the cheapest way possible alone in your home

Deaths by Week in US (due to Covid) per the CDC https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Week of April 18th- 17,000 Deaths

Week of May 16th- 9,000 Deaths

Week of June 13- 4,000 deaths

Week of July 11th 4,800 Deaths

Week of July 25th - 3,800 deaths

Week of August 1st- 1,100 Deaths

 

How do you interpret that as deaths are going up? 

[Matt39]

Just now, Philc1 said:

Do you have stats saying hospitals have not been at or above in patient capacity

https://bi.ahca.myflorida.com/t/ABICC/views/Public/ICUBedsCounty?%3AshowAppBanner=false&%3Adisplay_count=n&%3AshowVizHome=n&%3Aorigin=viz_share_link&%3AisGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y&%3Aembed=y

This is a live look at the ICU beds in the state. The major areas have not been close to being overrun to date.

[JoJoTownsell1]

5 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

That is an utterly baseless comment. Many athletes I knew in college were absolutely interested in learning, and getting a degree. They realize that only a small portion will have a football life after school. 

Are there those that don't give a damn? Of course. Just likethe  general population.

It's utterly baseless because you knew a few athletes in your college that cared about classes? I'm not sure your statement is any more/less scientific than mine. 

[Scott Dierking]

3 minutes ago, freestater said:

Wow, that's crazy. Those volunteers got some stones.

Here is a link to it:

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/jul/16/coronavirus-vaccine-oxford-team-volunteers-lab-controlled-human-challenge-trial

The team behind the Oxford Covid-19 vaccine hope to begin tests on volunteers who will be intentionally exposed to the virus in a “challenge trial”, a move seen as controversial since there is no proven cure for the illness.

Although challenge trials, in which healthy volunteers are given a pathogen, are routine in vaccine development, taking the approach for Covid-19, where there is no failsafe treatment if a volunteer becomes severely ill, has been questioned.

In human challenge trials volunteers are intentionally exposed in a controlled laboratory setting, meaning the trial can be completed in weeks and requires far fewer people.

 

The Oxford vaccine has already been tested in a phase-one trial involving about 1,000 British volunteers, with full details due to be published in the Lancet on Monday. Tens of thousands of people are also being recruited in the UK, Brazil, South Africa and the US for a further stage of testing, known as phase three.

A senior team member has said that preparations have begun for the human challenge trial to run in parallel with phase three, which would require only tens of volunteers to test the efficacy of the vaccine.

Prof Adrian Hill, director of Oxford University’s Jenner Institute, said that Oxford scientists were working in the laboratory on the technical side of preparation for such a trial and that the team hoped to recruit volunteers within months.

“We’re hoping to be doing challenge trials by the end of the year,” he said. “This might be in parallel or might be after the phase three trial is completed. They’re not competing options, they’re complementary.”

A growing number of scientists, including members of the Oxford team, argue that the human challenge trial approach is justified given that the risk would be very low for healthy people in their 20s, and since it would be set against the global impact of the pandemic and emergence of treatments such as Remdesivir.

One recent analysis put the risk of death from Covid-19 for someone in their 20s at around one in 3,000, similar to the risk for live kidney donation.

“Everybody would agree that the risk is extremely low in young people,” said Hill. “It’s so low that it’s very difficult to measure.”

The development comes amid speculation that the publication of the Oxford team’s phase one trial results on Monday will reveal “positive news”. The results are expected to show that there are no serious side-effects from this vaccine and that subjects show a response in each aspect of the immune system, the antibodies and T-cells.

This conclusion would be in line with the results of animal studies released so far, but even if a robust immune response were confirmed, it would not be a guarantee that the vaccine protected against infection. Instead such protection could be established in the phase three trial. This phase has recruited 10,000 trial participants in the UK, about 5,000 in Brazil and 2,000 in South Africa, with a second trial in the US aiming to recruit as many as 30,000 participants.

The timeline for the phase three trial depends on waiting for enough participants to be exposed to the coronavirus in everyday life, which should reveal whether those who have received the vaccine (rather than a placebo) are protected. This can take months depending on infection levels in the community.

Hill said that the challenge trial, beginning either after or in parallel with the phase three trial, could provide complementary information about optimal dosing and administration of the vaccine, as well as being a way to test how long immunity to the virus endures after exposure or vaccination.

AstraZeneca has agreed to supply 100m doses of the Oxford vaccine to Britain, with manufacturing plans already begun and delivery scheduled for September or October. The AstraZeneca deal will provide the US with 300m doses.

Hill is among the signatories of an open letter published today from Nobel laureates and senior scientists, coordinated by the US-based campaign group 1Day Sooner, which promotes human challenge trials for the acceleration of Covid-19 vaccine development.

The letter states: “If challenge trials can safely and effectively speed the vaccine development process then there is a formidable presumption in favour of their use, which would require a very compelling ethical justification to overcome.”

Other signatories include several leading British scientists, including the Nobel laureate and biologist Sir Richard Roberts, Lord Darzi, director of the Institute of Global Health Innovation at Imperial College London, Prof Peter Openshaw, of Imperial College, and the Oxford ethicist Julian Savulescu.

[Scott Dierking]

2 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

It's utterly baseless because you knew a few athletes in your college that cared about classes? I'm not sure your statement is any more/less scientific than mine. 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2018/12/03/study-graduation-rates-for-bowl-bound-teams-up-slightly/38665611/

The overall graduation rates for athletes on bowl-bound FBS football programs continue to climb, though the disparity in the rates between white and African-American players widened slightly, according to a study released on Monday.

The Institute for Diversity and Ethics and Sport shows in its report that the overall football Graduation Success Rate (GSR) is up to 79 percent, climbing from 77 percent in 2017.

The study found that white football players had a 90 percent graduation rate, while black players were at 73 percent. Both those numbers are up from 2017, when white players had an 87 percent rate and black players were at 71 percent, according to TIDES director Richard Lapchick, the primary author of the study.

"In a lot of ways it's continuing good news for college football," Lapchick said in a phone interview.

[Scott Dierking]

9 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

Deaths by Week in US (due to Covid) per the CDC https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Week of April 18th- 17,000 Deaths

Week of May 16th- 9,000 Deaths

Week of June 13- 4,000 deaths

Week of July 11th 4,800 Deaths

Week of July 25th - 3,800 deaths

Week of August 1st- 1,100 Deaths

 

How do you interpret that as deaths are going up? 

I would not count those latest numbers as gospel. Even the CDC on that site says that the most recent numbers lag in counting.

[JTJet]

31 minutes ago, Darnold Schwarzenegger said:

 Flatten the curve has become wait for a vaccine. NJ had 5 covid deaths yesterday. Yet restrictions are tightening

Flatten the curve became wait for a vaccine, wait for a vaccine will become wait for the tangible results, waiting for tangible results will become waiting until flu season is over again, etc etc...  

Around mid October, heavy "reports" will appear that Coronavirus is making a comeback or rebounding in certain states...

Election will happen...

Coronavirus problem will magically fade away. 

Take it to the bank. 

[Matt39]

As far as college football goes it sounds like the Big 10 and Pac 10 are out while the other three will play. Big 12 and ACC on the fence still...so in the event they dont commit Clemson could join the SEC for a season. Why not.

[Lith]

At least one game is still expected to be played as planned.  MTSU v Army

 

[JTJet]

8 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

I would not count those latest numbers as gospel. Even the CDC on that site says that the most recent numbers lag in counting.

Even taking "lag" into account, those are significant enough drop offs to understand that its dropping substantially. Not to mention its quite the opposite no? Its widely known that those numbers were padded to the point its actually a joke/meme now. 

Died in a car accident while having Coronavirus?.... Well....

Also, the way the federal funding has been set up for hospitals to receive more money actually incentivizes administrators to have as high of a Covid death count as possible. Unfortunately just like any group of humans, not all these people are completely altruistic. 

https://coloradosun.com/2020/05/15/colorado-coronavirus-death-certificate/

[JoJoTownsell1]

3 minutes ago, Lith said:

At least one game is still expected to be played as planned.  MTSU v Army

 

That's pretty funny. Middle Tennessee showing the rest of College Football how it's done. 

If you go to their website, https://goblueraiders.com/sports/football/schedule/2020, you don't even see this game on their schedule. 

College football this year could be like the wild west. Just random conferences, teams playing random games with no structure or point to the season. I would love to be a fly on the wall at the NCAA where they are literally clueless. 

[section314]

14 minutes ago, JTJet said:

Flatten the curve became wait for a vaccine, wait for a vaccine will become wait for the tangible results, waiting for tangible results will become waiting until flu season is over again, etc etc...  

Around mid October, heavy "reports" will appear that Coronavirus is making a comeback or rebounding in certain states...

Election will happen...

Coronavirus problem will magically fade away. 

Take it to the bank. 

Unless the underdog not only covers, but wins the game outright.? Will be a pleasure to see the meltdown in the media if that happens.

[section314]

6 minutes ago, JTJet said:

Even taking "lag" into account, those are significant enough drop offs to understand that its dropping substantially. Not to mention its quite the opposite no? Its widely known that those numbers were padded to the point its actually a joke/meme now. 

Died in a car accident while having Coronavirus?.... Well....

Also, the way the federal funding has been set up for hospitals to receive more money actually incentivizes administrators to have as high of a Covid death count as possible. Unfortunately just like any group of humans, not all these people are completely altruistic. 

https://coloradosun.com/2020/05/15/colorado-coronavirus-death-certificate/

Just the fact that we haven't heard Texas, Georgia, Florida or California mentioned on TV in a week tells you the numbers are down.

[JoJoTownsell1]

30 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

I would not count those latest numbers as gospel. Even the CDC on that site says that the most recent numbers lag in counting.

Regardless, the number of deaths are certainly not rising as philc suggested, agreed?

[CTM]

1 hour ago, Darnold Schwarzenegger said:

 Flatten the curve has become wait for a vaccine. NJ had 5 covid deaths yesterday. Yet restrictions are tightening

My area I don't think has ever had more than like 7 cases per 100k but haven't been able to go the gym for 5 months and counting..

[JTJet]

1 minute ago, CTM said:

My area I don't think has ever had more than like 7 cases per 100k but haven't been able to go the gym for 5 months and counting..

It's kinda like white supremacists. 

You hear about them all the time, but how many have you actually met? 

[Scott Dierking]

5 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

Regardless, the number of deaths are certainly not rising as philc suggested, agreed?

Relative to what period of time?

[Scott Dierking]

23 minutes ago, Lith said:

At least one game is still expected to be played as planned.  MTSU v Army

 

Man, I would not want to have my team face Army in its first game. Particularly after having limited contact practices. Talk about a tough game.