Did Oddsmakers Make A Massive Mistake With This Adam Gase Prop?

[JetNation]

• Adam Gase has +5000 odds (per DraftKings Sportsbook) to win the Coach of the Year Award. He represents the biggest long shot in the category.
• The New York Jets come into the 2020 campaign with relatively low expectations after finishing 7-9 last season. This bodes well for Gase if the team surprises, especially after ending 2020 with a 6-2 record in the second half of the campaign.
• Sam Darnold taking the next step in his second season with Gase is critical for this wager to come to fruition.

As time has passed, it has become very easy for NFL fans to make fun of Adam Gase. His first press conference as the New York Jets head coach was great social media fodder, as Twitter swelled with gifs and memes mocking his seemingly crazy eyes. Along with his less-than-stellar people skills and his firing from the Miami Dolphins, it’s clear why he hasn’t generated the respect that some of his peers have among football observers. However, Gase’s coaching reputation provides an interesting opportunity for sports bettors.

Gase’s Coaching History

Gase has the worst odds of any NFL head coach to win Coach of the Year. The oddsmakers at DraftKings Sportsbook have set the price on Gase winning Coach of the Year at +5000. There are 32 head coaches in the National Football League, and the implied probability of a +5000 is about 2.0 percent. This is a disrespectful number, because Gase isn’t as bad of a coach as people think he is. 

If you talk to credible football minds like Nick Saban and Peyton Manning, two greats that the Jets coach has had the chance to work with previously, Gase knows his football. Overall, his record as a head coach is 30-34. That’s not a terrible number when you consider the state of both franchises (New York Jets and Miami Dolphins) in the past decade or so.

He was the first Dolphins coach since 2008 to lead the team to a 10-win season, back when Miami went to the playoffs in 2016. In a more recent 2018 campaign, the Dolphins were 7-6 through 13 games before struggling down the stretch (which led to Gase’s ultimate dismissal). Gase has always fielded a competitive team, even when leading franchises that have had poor upper management. 

General Expectations Are Low

If you ask people what New York’s record was in 2019, they might guess that they went 4-12, because that would be a mark commensurate with the type of attention they received. In reality, they went a respectable 7-9 and garnered some attention from sharp bettors at various points of the season.

New York started 1-7 with a couple of embarrassing Monday Night Football performances. There was the 23-3 home loss to the Cleveland Browns in Week 2 and a 33-0 home loss that had Sam Darnold “seeing ghosts.” Between their 1-7 start, the disappointment with their star signing of Le’Veon Bell, the particularly high-profile primetime blowouts, the loss of two of their best defensive players going into 2020 (C.J. Mosley and Jalen Adams), and the negative coverage the Jets franchise always receives, expectations are quite low this upcoming season.

Low pre-season expectations are a sign that a head coach could be receiving hardware if their team turns out to be a pleasant surprise.

Optimism Around Darnold

When looking back at New York’s 2019 season, 3-of-7 of their losses through Week 8 came when the Jets were playing Luke Falk and Trevor Siemien at quarterback. The Jets went 7-6 with Darnold as their starter. In fact, New York went 6-2 over their last eight games. 

The Jets offense showed an ability to put up points over a three-game span where they scored 34 points in three-consecutive games. With another year of growth and development for Darnold, it’s entirely possible that Gase’s offense takes another step forward. This will be paired with an attacking defense that ranked fifth in yards allowed per play, including second in yards allowed per carry.

When we combine the under-appreciated coaching history of Gase, the low expectations of New York going into 2020, and the signs of potential based on the way they ended last year, you better believe that +5000 odds for Gase to win Coach of the Year has enormous upside. This is a wager to take advantage of that oddsmakers clearly missed the mark on.

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The post Did Oddsmakers Make A Massive Mistake With This Adam Gase Prop? appeared first on JetNation.com (NY Jets Blog & Forum).

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[Gastineau Lives]

Just laid a g

[Barry McCockinner]

[greengeek]

How does one put money on this?


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[Daddy Wang Doodle]

No

[Fantasy Island]

2% chance? too high actually.  He is a fraud as a HC.  

[shuler82]

Given the Jets record was 7-9 last year, they’d legitimately have to go 11-5 or 12-4 with that west coast schedule for Gase to be considered.... so I’d say the odds are about right.

[Beerfish]

32,31,25,24 Total offense

29,30.18,26 Passing offense

Freaking stellar resume.

[kmnj]

Gase is terrible we should have hired mccarthy -the cowboys vastly underachieved with Garrett and will win up McCarthy and when they do gase fans will say he only won because of the talent dallas has.

 

 

[kmnj]

A better bet would be case coaches the NFl's worst offense again.

[jeremy2020]

Odds seem a little high. 

[bitonti]

Yeah is there a place where I can get even money on a gase firing?

A better bet would be case coaches the NFl's worst offense again.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using JetNation.com mobile app

[TNJet]

Actually Joe Judge, Brian Flores or Kevin Stefanski are the biggest longshots to win coach of the year. They suck, and so do their teams.

[T0mShane]

Manish Mehta, in concert with Mike Maccagnan, sabotaged the hiring of Mike McCarthy. If you hate Gase so much, perhaps take it up with Manish instead of amplifying Manish.

[TNJet]

4 hours ago, kmnj said:

Gase is terrible we should have hired mccarthy -the cowboys vastly underachieved with Garrett and will win up McCarthy and when they do gase fans will say he only won because of the talent dallas has.

 

 

Dallas is so talented we beat them last year lol. I think we've beat them the last 3 games. But but we suck and they're awesome talent wise.

[bitonti]

25 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Manish Mehta, in concert with Mike Maccagnan, sabotaged the hiring of Mike McCarthy. If you hate Gase so much, perhaps take it up with Manish instead of amplifying Manish.

McCarthy is over 

Matt Rhule was the correct hire 

I think we can all agree Adam Gase is on a very hot seat indeed

hiring Gregg "the interim" Williams means the long knives are already sharpened

the JETS can't really placate their fans by winning, so firings, trades and cuts are what people have to hold onto as "improvement" 

 

[T0mShane]

5 minutes ago, bitonti said:

McCarthy is over 

Matt Rhule was the correct hire 

I think we can all agree Adam Gase is on a very hot seat indeed

hiring Gregg "the interim" Williams means the long knives are already sharpened

the JETS can't really placate their fans by winning, so firings, trades and cuts are what people have to hold onto as "improvement" 

 

Mike Maccagnan sabotaged the Matt Rhule hire by telling him he couldn’t bring his assistants.

[bitonti]

2 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Mike Maccagnan sabotaged the Matt Rhule hire by telling him he couldn’t bring his assistants.

that was the official story (and perhaps there's a gram of truth there as well) but

 the real issue is Rhule needed a Baylor buyout in the neighborhood of 5-8 mil

after that 2019 offseason season btw Baylor gave Rhule an even bigger contract, making his buyout among the top 5 in college football history 

Carolina paid it in 2020 

long story short why buyout a Rhule when you can get a Gase for free

now would also be a good time to point out that Adam Gase, Joe Douglas and Sam Darnold all share the same agent 

this man 

https://jetswire.usatoday.com/2019/06/09/jimmy-sexton-agent-jets-joe-douglas-adam-gase-sam-darnold/

 

[Warfish]

14 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Matt Rhule was the correct hire

We'll see.  Might want to let him coach an actual game in the actual NFL before we get too far ahead of ourselves.

[T0mShane]

4 minutes ago, bitonti said:

that was the official story (and perhaps there's a gram of truth there as well) but

 the real issue is Rhule needed a Baylor buyout in the neighborhood of 5-8 mil

after that 2019 offseason season btw Baylor gave Rhule an even bigger contract, making his buyout among the top 5 in college football history 

Carolina paid it in 2020 

long story short why buyout a Rhule when you can get a Gase for free

now would also be a good time to point out that Adam Gase, Joe Douglas and Sam Darnold all share the same agent 

this man 

https://jetswire.usatoday.com/2019/06/09/jimmy-sexton-agent-jets-joe-douglas-adam-gase-sam-darnold/

 

Maccagnan hired Gregg Williams and gave him $1 mil per year and foisted him on Gase, so I think it’s more than a “grain” of truth that Maccagnan wouldn’t let his coaches bring in their assistants.

[bitonti]

11 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Maccagnan hired Gregg Williams and gave him $1 mil per year and foisted him on Gase, so I think it’s more than a “grain” of truth that Maccagnan wouldn’t let his coaches bring in their assistants.

yeah ok but they were never serious about Rhule

the buyout would be more than Mac's salary and future HC's salary combined 

and that's before they pay Rhule 8 mil per 

they made it about assistants rather than buyouts

how many fans even knew there was a CFB buyout involved with most of these new guys (KK was not on a contract if memory serves) 

Gase is what we would have called a retread 20 years ago 

he's a 2nd time HC at rookie HC prices

it's not like anyone should give him "credit" for his Miami experience 

[bitonti]

15 minutes ago, Warfish said:

We'll see.  Might want to let him coach an actual game in the actual NFL before we get too far ahead of ourselves.

that's not my style 

i'm a venture capitalist of statements

19 out of 20 will bust but 1 time i'll be in on the ground floor

not that anyone remembers I wanted Mahomes over Adams. people only remember your mistakes 

[T0mShane]

1 minute ago, bitonti said:

yeah ok but they were never serious about Rhule

the buyout would be more than Mac's salary and future HC's salary combined 

and that's before they pay Rhule 8 mil per 

they made it about assistants rather than buyouts

how many fans even knew there was a CFB buyout involved with most of these new guys (KK was not on a contract if memory serves) 

Gase is what we would have called a retread 20 years ago 

he's a 2nd time HC at rookie HC prices

it's not like anyone should give him "credit" for his Miami experience 

Or, they weren’t serious about Rhule and McCarthy because they both threatened Maccagnan’s livelihood and he wanted someone who promised fealty to him.

[bitonti]

3 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Or, they weren’t serious about Rhule and McCarthy because they both threatened Maccagnan’s livelihood and he wanted someone who promised fealty to him.

that is an extremely acceptable answer

hiring a Rhule or McCarthy is like Mac firing himself day 1. but it's kind of fantasy thinking because Mac knows Woody/Chris would not have approved that kind of spend 

Mac needed to find the only cretin in the NFL who wouldn't threaten his job and he thought he found it in Adam Gase

turns out Gase is awesome at getting jobs, keeping jobs, getting others fired, finding excuses etc.

if only he were as good at, ya know, coaching offense. 

[T0mShane]

1 minute ago, bitonti said:

that is an extremely acceptable answer

hiring a Rhule or McCarthy is like Mac firing himself day 1. but it's kind of fantasy thinking because Mac knows Woody/Chris would not have approved that kind of spend 

Mac needed to find the only cretin in the NFL who wouldn't threaten his job and he thought he found it in Adam Gase

turns out Gase is awesome at getting jobs, keeping jobs, getting others fired, finding excuses etc.

if only he were as good at, ya know, coaching offense. 

I mean, what Gase has done to the organization has been a net positive. Maccagnan was one of the worst GMs in NFL history and he, like Rex, had embedded himself into the Johnson Family circle of trust. Gase dislodging Maccagnan and smacking the sh*t out of Chris will bear more fruit than any other hire we could have made. If Gase sucks this year, he’ll be replaced, but he should have a statue of himself erected in Florham Park because he emancipated the franchise from Maccagnan’s odious stewardship.

[Jetsfan80]

3 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I mean, what Gase has done to the organization has been a net positive. Maccagnan was one of the worst GMs in NFL history and he, like Rex, had embedded himself into the Johnson Family circle of trust. Gase dislodging Maccagnan and smacking the sh*t out of Chris will bear more fruit than any other hire we could have made. If Gase sucks this year, he’ll be replaced, but he should have a statue of himself erected in Florham Park because he emancipated the franchise from Maccagnan’s odious stewardship.

 

[TuscanyTile2]

1 hour ago, TNJet said:

Actually Joe Judge, Brian Flores or Kevin Stefanski are the biggest longshots to win coach of the year. They suck, and so do their teams.

Brian Flores is on that list?!  He did a good job last year.  How can his odds be worse than Gase?

[T0mShane]

6 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Brian Flores is on that list?!  He did a good job last year.  How can his odds be worse than Gase?

He was 5-11.

[TuscanyTile2]

7 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

He was 5-11.

With 0-16 talent.

[T0mShane]

1 minute ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

With 0-16 talent.

Gase led that 0-16 talent to a 7-9 the year prior.

[bitonti]

45 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I mean, what Gase has done to the organization has been a net positive. Maccagnan was one of the worst GMs in NFL history and he, like Rex, had embedded himself into the Johnson Family circle of trust. Gase dislodging Maccagnan and smacking the sh*t out of Chris will bear more fruit than any other hire we could have made. If Gase sucks this year, he’ll be replaced, but he should have a statue of himself erected in Florham Park because he emancipated the franchise from Maccagnan’s odious stewardship.

that can all be true but there's a distance between being a net positive by getting other people fired and being a net positive by making the offense not stink 

ya know, the job he was hired to do 

he's the first offensive HC they've had since Kotite and i think Kotite had a better offense. That's probably not a lie. I'm not going to look it up 

meanwhile the Jets fire their GM, HC and QB on rotating schedules, stuff like that happens regardless of Gase's back-stabbery 

 

 

[TuscanyTile2]

12 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Gase led that 0-16 talent to a 7-9 the year prior.

He should've won COTY

[SAR I]

So if I lay $1,000 on Adam Gase to be named Coach of the Year, how much would I win?

SAR I

[TNJet]

2 hours ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Brian Flores is on that list?!  He did a good job last year.  How can his odds be worse than Gase?

Because he has no defense, a rookie QB, and Fitzpatrick and Rosen. Lol

[TuscanyTile2]

6 minutes ago, SAR I said:

So if I lay $1,000 on Adam Gase to be named Coach of the Year, how much would I win?

SAR I

$0