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Best/Worst Case for Jets in 2021


Shockwave

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13 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

3 seasons of sample size is more than 2 seasons of sample size.

And a historically unprecedented turnaround by Josh Allen, who at the very least displayed elite athleticism that Darnold simply doesn't have, does not mean we should expect it out of Darnold.  There's only one Josh Allen.  There's a LOT of DeShone Kizer's. 

And no, none of the other QB's people like to throw out there as a potential comparison (Rich Gannon, Steve Young, Ryan Tannehill, Eli Manning, Drew Brees, Jim Plunkett, etc) apply for this situation, either.  Those QB's either played in a very different era and/or showed a LOT more than Darnold did in their first 3 NFL seasons.

No one should depend on a turnaround in Year 4 and feel comfortable with Darnold being the unquestioned starter of the 2021 Jets.  Very high likelihood we end up with yet another throwaway season if that's the case.

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1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

And a historically unprecedented turnaround by Josh Allen does not mean we should expect it out of Darnold.  There's only one Josh Allen.  There's a LOT of DeShone Kizer's. 

No one should depend on a turnaround in Year 4 and feel comfortable with Darnold being the unquestioned starter of the 2021 Jets.  Very high likelihood we end up with yet another throwaway season if that's the case.

This is why imo Darnold will be gone 

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"Since entering the league, he ranks second-to-last in passing grade, last in big-time throw rate, third-to-last in turnover-worthy play rate and third-to-last in accurate pass rate on throws beyond the line of scrimmage. The odds of him having a Year 4 breakout are slim to none at this point."

22 minutes ago, nycdan said:

Tell me one thing Sam Darnold does well.

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29 minutes ago, Greenseed4 said:

Zach Wilson played two ranked teams this last year (Coastal Carolina, Boise St.), in both games he demonstrated lazy play action (to the wrong/ non-player side), he struggled with accuracy under pressure, and had scared feet; causing him to take sacks.

He has a live arm, and cute dimples, but I question his accuracy.  He doesn’t throw to where only his receiver can get it. His “accurate” throws are within defender’s reach; that won’t fly on Sunday’s. 

So who do you go with? Curious.

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3 minutes ago, BroadwayRay said:

"Since entering the league, he ranks second-to-last in passing grade, last in big-time throw rate, third-to-last in turnover-worthy play rate and third-to-last in accurate pass rate on throws beyond the line of scrimmage. The odds of him having a Year 4 breakout are slim to none at this point."

Tell me one thing Sam Darnold does well.

He gets us good draft picks.

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4 minutes ago, HighPitch said:

Did jameuis winstons name pop up? oMG just stay with darnold then

At least Winston would be entertaining.  Darnold is the most boring QB of all time.  Give me a reason to watch games in 2021, please.  If that means Winston, I'll take it.  Dude threw for over 5,000 yards and 33 TDs just 2 seasons ago.  Darnold can't even break 200 yards in a game.

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22 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

Zach Wilson: Throws most completed passes into tight coverage in college football

You: he’s not accurate enough to throw away from defenders in tight coverage 

interesting 

Those completed passes in the FBS Independent Conference, are PDs or INTs on Sunday’s. 

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1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

At least Winston would be entertaining.  Darnold is the most boring QB of all time.  Give me a reason to watch games in 2021, please.  If that means Winston, I'll take it.  Dude threw for over 5,000 yards and 33 TDs just 2 seasons ago.  Darnold can't even break 200 yards in a game.

Not only that, but if the conversation is pie in the sky reclamation projects, why wouldn't you go with the guy who has at least thrown for a ton of yards and TDs. Darnold is still just as turnover prone, but his manned the worst scoring offense for two years straight.

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9 minutes ago, Jetluv58 said:

So who do you go with? Curious.

Unpopular opinion.  In three years, we’re going to look back on this class and wonder how we didn’t “see it.”

1. Trey Lance/Justin Fields 

3. Trevor Lawrence

4. Sam Darnold 

5. Zach Wilson 

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4 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

Watson is clearly the best case scenario.

But getting excited about BYU and Ohio State quarterbacks...?

Ginger re-rolllllllllllllllllll

Plus a bunch of added offensive talent, plus a better scheme, plus a huge jump in development, plus low expectations.

I don't know how anyone can take a serious look at Fields as a prospect and continue to just chalk him up as "another Ohio State QB".

Meanwhile, if teams just looked at a QB's school and ruled him out on that basis alone, no one would have drafted Aaron Rodgers or Pat Mahomes.  

Evaluate the prospect.  Not the school.

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1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I don't know how anyone can take a serious look at Fields as a prospect and continue to just chalk him up as "another Ohio State QB".

Meanwhile, if teams just looked at a QB's school and ruled him out on that basis alone, no one would have drafted Aaron Rodgers or Pat Mahomes.  

Evaluate the prospect.  Not the school.

I mean, there are so few elite QBs that have played in the league overall, the focus on school is insane. The best QBs of the last decade or so:  Wisconsin, NC State, Miami OH, Michigan, Purdue, Cal, Texas Tech, Clemson (arguably Stanford, Ole Miss, Delaware).

There's not exactly a powerhouse school that churns out elite QBs, they come from everywhere.

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Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

I don't know how anyone can take a serious look at Fields as a prospect and just chalk him up as "another Ohio State QB".

Meanwhile, if teams just looked at a QB's school and ruled him out on that basis alone, no one would have drafted Aaron Rodgers or Pat Mahomes.  

There are three good videos from JT O'Sullivan on that QB School channel on YouTube that dive deep into Fields.

Dude has great upside, can't deny it. 

But he's raw from the 'soft' quarterback skills - anticipation, reading the field, decision making, consistency in ball placement/accuracy. Also, Ryan Day has an excellent scheme and it's pointed out numerous times in those videos - the first read is open, a lot

I'm not saying dude is gonna suck, but he's definitely raw. And when you combine that with the lackluster roster we currently have, it makes me nervous. Let's see what the team looks like after free agency, and if it's significantly improved offensively, especially from a protection standpoint, I think that could change things for me on Wilson and Fields. 

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11 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I don't know how anyone can take a serious look at Fields as a prospect and continue to just chalk him up as "another Ohio State QB".

Meanwhile, if teams just looked at a QB's school and ruled him out on that basis alone, no one would have drafted Aaron Rodgers or Pat Mahomes.  

Evaluate the prospect.  Not the school.

The problem isn't really Ohio State.  The problem is that he's an obstacle to us drafting Zach Wilson.

I wonder if some of the Wilson fans would want him over Trevor as well.  

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46 minutes ago, Greenseed4 said:

Zach Wilson played two ranked teams this last year (Coastal Carolina, Boise St.), in both games he demonstrated lazy play action (to the wrong/ non-player side), he struggled with accuracy under pressure, and had scared feet; causing him to take sacks.

He has a live arm, and cute dimples, but I question his accuracy.  He doesn’t throw to where only his receiver can get it. His “accurate” throws are within defender’s reach; that won’t fly on Sunday’s. 

Seriously? Boise State he was 22-28, 360 yards, 3 TD's, 0 ints and a. 92.4 QBR in a 51-17 victory.  It's quite telling that you need to use that game as one of the reason to not draft him.

You want to say he had a bad day against CCU in their only loss of the year, sure it happens - but it was still a reasonable game - 19-30, 240 yards, 1td, 1int.  If that's your worst day in a 12 game season - you're doing something right.

He's as strong as an NFL prospect as we've seen in a long time.  You don't have to like him, but don't make up stuff to justify it.

People are trying to make it sound like BYU was some backwards programs.  They finished ranked 11th in the country.  

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15 minutes ago, Greenseed4 said:

Those completed passes in the FBS Independent Conference, are PDs or INTs on Sunday’s. 

It’d have been better if he didn’t complete them. If he threw the passes incomplete but a yard further away from the defender it’d be translatable to Sunday’s?

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13 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I don't know how anyone can take a serious look at Fields as a prospect and continue to just chalk him up as "another Ohio State QB".

Meanwhile, if teams just looked at a QB's school and ruled him out on that basis alone, no one would have drafted Aaron Rodgers or Pat Mahomes.  

Evaluate the prospect.  Not the school.

Isn't that exactly what you're doing with Wilson?

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5 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

There are three good videos from JT O'Sullivan on that QB School channel on YouTube that dive deep into Fields.

Dude has great upside, can't deny it. 

But he's raw from the 'soft' quarterback skills - anticipation, reading the field, decision making, consistency in ball placement/accuracy. Also, Ryan Day has an excellent scheme and it's pointed out numerous times in those videos - the first read is open, a lot

I'm not saying dude is gonna suck, but he's definitely raw. And when you combine that with the lackluster roster we currently have, it makes me nervous. Let's see what the team looks like after free agency, and if it's significantly improved offensively, especially from a protection standpoint, I think that could change things for me on Wilson and Fields. 

 

That's fine.  Here you're evaluating the prospect, not the school.  Fields definitely has some significant flaws, as basically all QB prospects do.  

My take on Fields is that athleticism matters more than ever for QB's, and Fields has that, including a great arm.  That makes him intriguing.  We've also seen several supposedly one-read QB's have success in this league recently.

Decision-making...you really don't know how QB's will do in that area until they arrive, unfortunately.  

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1 minute ago, FidelioJet said:

Isn't that exactly what you're doing with Wilson?

I think the school matters when it's a smaller school facing less elite competition.  That, to me, is a different point than saying the school hasn't produced star QBs in the past.  

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4 minutes ago, nycdan said:

The problem isn't really Ohio State.  The problem is that he's an obstacle to us drafting Zach Wilson.

I wonder if some of the Wilson fans would want him over Trevor as well.  

Yes. I want Wilson over Lawrence. I also want Fields over Lawrence. Choosing between Wilson and Fields is much harder though. Both are so fun. 

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Just now, kdels62 said:

Yes. I want Wilson over Lawrence. I also want Fields over Lawrence. Choosing between Wilson and Fields is much harder though. Both are so fun. 

Well you definitely get points for taking a different position.  Not many would take either of them over TL, let alone both.

I hope you're right.  That way we have a 50:50 chance to get the best of the three, assuming we pick one.

But just to be sure, you do know I was talking about Trevor, not Jennifer, right? ;)

 

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21 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

That's fine.  Here you're evaluating the prospect, not the school.  Fields definitely has some significant flaws, as basically all QB prospects do.  

It's less the Ohio State history of quarterbacks that makes me nervous, but more the unbelievable talent around him at OSU + a great passing game schematically.

The past two years, Ohio State was second only to Alabama in talent. And I think it's absolutely fair to knock dudes like Tua and Mac Jones down a bit for having such a great team around them. 

And the BYU thing, I mean, I can go either way on that - did he elevate a mediocre team? Or did he play on easy mode against terrible competition? What's the deal with the shoulder surgeries? 

These are all fair questions, in my view at least, and the one thing I'm absolutely sure about is that we need significant talent upgrades everywhere on offense. Again, we'll see how things play out come free agency or if the Watson deal materializes. 

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1 hour ago, Shockwave said:

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-best-case-worst-case-scenarios-for-all-32-nfl-teams

Statistically it’s interesting how black and white this situation is. 

it's only black and white for the qb position.  if they opt for watson then there will be some serious ripple effects from the lost draft picks.  i don't think the free agency will be impacted that much although it might force looking for positions they would've picked with the draft choices.

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Just now, nycdan said:

Well you definitely get points for taking a different position.  Not many would take either of them over TL, let alone both.

I hope you're right.  That way we have a 50:50 chance to get the best of the three, assuming we pick one.

But just to be sure, you do know I was talking about Trevor, not Jennifer, right? ;)

 

Jennifer Lawrence is what I’ve dreamed about since before I understood what it felt like to be attracted to a woman.

Lawrence is a very safe and good prospect. My issue with him is that he isn’t super accurate. He also gets rattled in the pocket and he skies the ball when he can’t step into throws. So while I get him going 1 overall, I really like Fields and Wilson’s skill sets better for the professional game.

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6 minutes ago, DoubleDown said:

MorpheusOne - WHAT IF I TOLD YOU YOU COULD HAVE BOTH?

Sign Robinson, draft Wilson, let Darnold play out his 4th year and start the season while Wilson is eased into action.

 

Wouldn't you rather trade Darnold so the Jets have added draft capital to build around Wilson?  If you're taking a QB at 2, it means the org doesn't believe in Darnold any longer.  So why hold onto him and then get nothing for him when he walks as a FA? 

Trade him, then sign one of the many veteran bridge options available to start Week 1.  Someone like Winston, Tyrod Taylor, Andy Dalton or even Ryan Fitzpatrick would do nicely.  

The only reason to keep Darnold is if the org still believes in Darnold as a long-term starter.  He makes zero sense as a bridge guy.  

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