The case for getting Thibs at #4

[Greenseed4]

The foregone conclusion was Kayvon Thibidoux going #1 overall, regardless of team, for pretty much the whole season until a few weeks ago when Aidan Hutchinson broke the Michigan single-season sack record… now it’s a 1a/1b choose your flavor.  Or is it? 
 

1. JAX, Evan Neal

The presumptive owner of the first overall pick, Jacksonville, has spent a first round pick on a DE in two of the last three drafts. Last year opting instead for the QB and RB that failed to impress behind an underperforming OL.  
Cam Robinson (LT) and Andrew Norwell (LG) are not contracted past this season. In 2020 Cam was ranked 42 out of 59 as a pass blocking LT, this year he was tagged to play one year on a “prove it” deal.  But he hasn’t. 
When you look at the contract situation on their OL, and the priority of protecting a young under-performing FQB, it might make sense to pass on the pass rusher and draft Cam’s replacement. 


2. DET, Kenny Pickett 

Detroit is building their team backwards. They built up their OL, drafted ascending talents at RB, TE, and slot WR, and traded away their expensive QB to stockpile draft picks.  Injuries derailed their defense (Okudah, Trey Flowers), and they could definitely use an impact DE.  But looking at their division, they need to put up points.  With Aaron Rodgers potentially leaving the division, and Justin Fields just entering it, now is the time to grab their favorite QB in the draft, Justin Herbert-Lite.  I know it’s a “weak class” for QBs, but I went back through draft records, only ONE TIME in the last 20 years (2013) did we not see a QB drafted in the top-3.  Besides, I believe the depth of PRs is such that getting an Edge with their second first round pick or their second rounder produces a better outcome than getting a QB after pick #2.

2. Pickett 

28. Drake London/ Jahan Dotson

34. Jermaine Johnson/ Cameron Thomas 

 

3. HOU, Hutchinson (the next JJ Watt), who’s father Chris Hutchinson played high school in Houston. 

[FTL Jet Fan]

I am sure I may be in the minority but I rather have Thibs than Hutchinson.

[Ron Rico]

Where do we project Haskell Garrett to go? First round?

[Ron Rico]

I prefer SEC players

 

Kingsley Enagbare DE South Carolina | NFL Draft 2022 Scouting Report (nfldraftbuzz.com)

[derp]

The flip side to your Detroit QB scenario is that in a draft with a clump of QB’s who haven’t differentiated themselves, if they don’t fall in love with a guy they can just get someone in that clump with the Rams’ pick and take a bad pass rusher.

It’s pretty reasonable to think that they could decide Hutchinson/Thibodeaux + Corral/Pickett/Howell/Willis - they’ll certainly get one of those guys with the Rams’ pick - is better than their pick of the QB’s and someone like Cameron Thomas/Jermaine Johnson. It is possible they love one of the QB’s it’s just kind of hard to imagine one separating to that extent.

I’d actually think the more likely path is Neal-Hutchinson 1-2 and then the Caserio Texans just not liking Thibodeaux being an independent thinker who drops f bombs during interviews.

[Greenseed4]

4 minutes ago, derp said:

It’s pretty reasonable to think that they could decide Hutchinson/Thibodeaux + Corral/Pickett/Howell/Willis - they’ll certainly get one of those guys with the Rams’ pick - is better than their pick of the QB’s and someone like Cameron Thomas/Jermaine Johnson. It is possible they love one of the QB’s it’s just kind of hard to imagine one separating to that extent.

In 2013, a QB wasn’t drafted until #16 (EJ Manuel) and then the next QB taken was Geno Smith in the second round. 

Prior to that, in 2000, Chad Pennington was the first QB drafted in the first round #18 overall. 

EVERY OTHER draft year has seen a QB get drafted in the top-3.  With the new protections and QB favored penalties, it’s too much of a premium position to leave your team leader to chance.  We’ll see. Just my take. 

[Greenseed4]

23 minutes ago, Coquito said:

Where do we project Haskell Garrett to go? First round?

 

19 minutes ago, Coquito said:

I prefer SEC players

 

Kingsley Enagbare DE South Carolina | NFL Draft 2022 Scouting Report (nfldraftbuzz.com)

My post is to outline a pathway of how we could see Thibs, the former undisputed #1 overall, falling to us at 4.  

[derp]

54 minutes ago, Greenseed4 said:

In 2013, a QB wasn’t drafted until #16 (EJ Manuel) and then the next QB taken was Geno Smith in the second round. 

Prior to that, in 2000, Chad Pennington was the first QB drafted in the first round #18 overall. 

EVERY OTHER draft year has seen a QB get drafted in the top-3.  With the new protections and QB favored penalties, it’s too much of a premium position to leave your team leader to chance.  We’ll see. Just my take. 

I guess to that I’d say: this draft gets compared to 2013 more than any other draft, no QB has separated themselves in any meaningful way this year to the point that it is an unusual draft class, Detroit is early on in their rebuild and already didn’t force the QB position, and Campbell came from New Orleans who also hasn’t forced the QB position.

Most importantly and tying in with Detroit being patient and trying to be responsible with the QB position - the track record of QB’s in the top three has been HORRIBLE. Really really bad. I’d actually argue bad to the point that it’s irresponsible to take one there unless you think there’s a transcendent best in the draft prospect - those are almost the only top 3 QB’s who work out and definitively not the case this year - and have a clear development plan.

[Greenseed4]

35 minutes ago, derp said:

I guess to that I’d say: this draft gets compared to 2013 more than any other draft, no QB has separated themselves in any meaningful way this year to the point that it is an unusual draft class, Detroit is early on in their rebuild and already didn’t force the QB position, and Campbell came from New Orleans who also hasn’t forced the QB position.

Most importantly and tying in with Detroit being patient and trying to be responsible with the QB position - the track record of QB’s in the top three has been HORRIBLE. Really really bad. I’d actually argue bad to the point that it’s irresponsible to take one there unless you think there’s a transcendent best in the draft prospect - those are almost the only top 3 QB’s who work out and definitively not the case this year - and have a clear development plan.

Maybe. I think when you need a QB you can talk yourself into one.  In this case, watch Kenny Pickett shoot up draft boards when draft order gets settled. 

He’s 6’3, 220 (the same size as Matt Stafford) threw a 67% completion rate for over 4,300 yards with 42 TD to 7 INT, with 5 rushing TDs. 
 

 

[derp]

32 minutes ago, Greenseed4 said:

Maybe. I think when you need a QB you can talk yourself into one.  In this case, watch Kenny Pickett shoot up draft boards when draft order gets settled. 

He’s 6’3, 220 (the same size as Matt Stafford) threw a 67% completion rate for over 4,300 yards with 42 TD to 7 INT, with 5 rushing TDs. 
 

 

I think the bold is exactly why that track record of QB’s in the top three is so horrible.

I am familiar with Pickett’s season. Stafford got drafted where he did because of his special arm talent not the size, Pickett doesn’t have traditional top end of the first round traits, and Pitt played a pretty soft schedule this year in a down ACC.

Not saying it’s impossible but I think it’d be surprising. And given Detroit isn’t really in a position to support Pickett think they’d be setting him up for failure if they take him at 2.

[BurntDice]

8 hours ago, FTL Jet Fan said:

I am sure I may be in the minority but I rather have Thibs than Hutchinson.

I like thib more than hutch. Thib is a better athlete and has tons of potential. He didn’t have someone on the other side of him to keep the offenses honest like hutch did with ojabo. They tried their hardest to neutralize him with double teams and rolling out to the opposite side. Hutch is a sr and bullied the younger tackles he went up against with brute strength. Hutchinsons frame seems fairly maxed out while thib has room to gain another 10 lbs of muscle. 

[PLO]

9 hours ago, BurntDice said:

I like thib more than hutch. Thib is a better athlete and has tons of potential. He didn’t have someone on the other side of him to keep the offenses honest like hutch did with ojabo. They tried their hardest to neutralize him with double teams and rolling out to the opposite side. Hutch is a sr and bullied the younger tackles he went up against with brute strength. Hutchinsons frame seems fairly maxed out while thib has room to gain another 10 lbs of muscle. 

I totally agree. 

If Thibs fell to four I would do cartwheels, He's an outstanding prospect at a premier position. Arguably Hamilton is the better overall prospect, but he's a safety. Accounting for positional value Thibs is the best prospect in this draft. 

[PepPep]

I like Thibs, Hutch and Karlaftis. One should def. be available at 4. Johnson out of FSU is another Pass Rusher I like, really versatile and athletic. But I wonder what his fit will be at the next level and specifically in this system. Ojabo is another guy who should be an option. 

Considering they have two top 10 draft picks, they should def. come away with one of these guys.  

I think the consensus is and has been that Thibs and Hutch are 1, 1a, depending on who you prefer. But I think once all is said and done (combine, etc.) Ojabo, Johnson and Karlaftis will see their stock rise. 

[Chrebetfan80]

On 1/1/2022 at 3:21 PM, derp said:

The flip side to your Detroit QB scenario is that in a draft with a clump of QB’s who haven’t differentiated themselves, if they don’t fall in love with a guy they can just get someone in that clump with the Rams’ pick and take a bad pass rusher.

It’s pretty reasonable to think that they could decide Hutchinson/Thibodeaux + Corral/Pickett/Howell/Willis - they’ll certainly get one of those guys with the Rams’ pick - is better than their pick of the QB’s and someone like Cameron Thomas/Jermaine Johnson. It is possible they love one of the QB’s it’s just kind of hard to imagine one separating to that extent.

I’d actually think the more likely path is Neal-Hutchinson 1-2 and then the Caserio Texans just not liking Thibodeaux being an independent thinker who drops f bombs during interviews.

On the flip side I could see us not liking that either lol 

[Chrebetfan80]

18 hours ago, PepPep said:

I like Thibs, Hutch and Karlaftis. One should def. be available at 4. Johnson out of FSU is another Pass Rusher I like, really versatile and athletic. But I wonder what his fit will be at the next level and specifically in this system. Ojabo is another guy who should be an option. 

Considering they have two top 10 draft picks, they should def. come away with one of these guys.  

I think the consensus is and has been that Thibs and Hutch are 1, 1a, depending on who you prefer. But I think once all is said and done (combine, etc.) Ojabo, Johnson and Karlaftis will see their stock rise. 

if there is a combine this year that will push alot of these guys up boards.  There are more than a few that are going to test big i think. 

[Chrebetfan80]

On 1/1/2022 at 5:44 PM, derp said:

I think the bold is exactly why that track record of QB’s in the top three is so horrible.

I am familiar with Pickett’s season. Stafford got drafted where he did because of his special arm talent not the size, Pickett doesn’t have traditional top end of the first round traits, and Pitt played a pretty soft schedule this year in a down ACC.

Not saying it’s impossible but I think it’d be surprising. And given Detroit isn’t really in a position to support Pickett think they’d be setting him up for failure if they take him at 2.

I really think detroit will be fine sticking with Goff for now and then rolling the dice in a better QB year.  That team still has a lot of building to do and for them to rebuild the roster instead of reaching for a QB would be the way to go. 

[BurntDice]

I found this thread on r/nfl_draft pretty interesting. I haven’t watched much of thibs besides a few games on tv. Is he massively overhyped? Gives low effort? Maybe he’ll fall past our #4 pick. He has a crazy amount of natural athleticism which I like, and sky high potential, but low motor maybe? He seemed like an egomaniac on the Alabama - Georgia show with klatt the other week. The longer I think about this class the more I want Hamilton at 4. He’s as sure fire as they come. 
 

 

[RedBeardedSavage]

12 minutes ago, BurntDice said:

I found this thread on r/nfl_draft pretty interesting. I haven’t watched much of thibs besides a few games on tv. Is he massively overhyped? Gives low effort? Maybe he’ll fall past our #4 pick. 
 

 

I love this take.

Not only because Jermaine Johnson is awesome, and I'm hoping he shows out the senior bowl & the combine, but because Kayvon "I chose my college based on branding opportunities instead of winning/competing' Thibodeaux just pisses me off.

I really hope he's gone by our pick. 

But I'll defer to the more knowledgable posters here as I also haven't watched much of Thibs - didn't think he'd ever be available for us.

[BurntDice]

1 minute ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

I love this take.

Not only because Jermaine Johnson is awesome, and I'm hoping he shows out the senior bowl & the combine, but because Kayvon "I chose my college based on branding opportunities instead of winning/competing' Thibodeaux just pisses me off.

I really hope he's gone by our pick. 

But I'll defer to the more knowledgable posters here as I also haven't watched much of Thibs - didn't think he'd ever be available for us.

Totally agree.  That klatt show really turned me off from him. He seems like such a jackass. There’s so many edges who will be around in the late 1st/early 2nd. Sign me up for Johnson/sanders/walker/ ojabo/ hall/Thomas etc 

[RedBeardedSavage]

2 minutes ago, BurntDice said:

Totally agree.  That klatt show really turned me off from him. He seems like such a jackass. There’s so many edges who will be around in the late 1st/early 2nd. Sign me up for Johnson/sanders/walker/ ojabo/ hall/Thomas etc 

Was reading about Cam Thomas recently, haven't found a lot of film, but apparently he has a lot of versatility along the line - like Johnson II & Trevon Walker.

We'll know more after the combine on who has the 34" arms and the good 10 yard split, but I'm far more intrigued by those three as opposed to Thibs, Ojabo & Karlaftis. 

[BurntDice]

6 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

Was reading about Cam Thomas recently, haven't found a lot of film, but apparently he has a lot of versatility along the line - like Johnson II & Trevon Walker.

We'll know more after the combine on who has the 34" arms and the good 10 yard split, but I'm far more intrigued by those three as opposed to Thibs, Ojabo & Karlaftis. 

Yea there really isn’t much of him on YouTube. There’s only 3 games I think. Here’s a good list of tape for all of the prospects of you ever are in the mood. (The games are all clickable and they bring you to a video)
 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qVz7D-21Ga1xJkSxfgZADAHTgKgevXIozQmoQ26ZyzM/htmlview#

 

[RedBeardedSavage]

8 minutes ago, BurntDice said:

Yea there really isn’t much of him on YouTube. There’s only 3 games I think. Here’s a good list of tape for all of the prospects of you ever are in the mood. 
 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qVz7D-21Ga1xJkSxfgZADAHTgKgevXIozQmoQ26ZyzM/htmlview#

 

Appreciate you passing it along. Will check it out.

[BurntDice]

1 minute ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

Appreciate you passing it along. Will check it out.

Yea man it was created by the r/nfl_draft guys. It’s a lot more smooth as a google doc, but couldn’t share it on here in that format 

[PepPep]

I would be absolutely blown away if Neal, Hutch and Thib were not the top 3 selections. 

As much as I love Ekwonu, I still think he is a Guard in the NFL and he WILL NOT go ahead of Neal in the top 3. I don't see any other Pass Rusher jumping ahead of Hutch or Thib. And I don't see a team gambling on a QB this year in the top 3. 

So Jet fans should be ready for Ekwonu, maybe Cross, maybe Hamilton, maybe Ojabo or Karlaftis (if he blows up the combine). Nobody will like how high the selection is made. A trade down is probably preferable. But we will still get a very good player.  

[section314]

11 minutes ago, PepPep said:

I would be absolutely blown away if Neal, Hutch and Thib were not the top 3 selections. 

As much as I love Ekwonu, I still think he is a Guard in the NFL and he WILL NOT go ahead of Neal in the top 3. I don't see any other Pass Rusher jumping ahead of Hutch or Thib. And I don't see a team gambling on a QB this year in the top 3. 

So Jet fans should be ready for Ekwonu, maybe Cross, maybe Hamilton, maybe Ojabo or Karlaftis (if he blows up the combine). Nobody will like how high the selection is made. A trade down is probably preferable. But we will still get a very good player.  

Not sexy at all, but if they are highest guys on board, grab them. You will be getting a 7-10 year starter. Don't reach for need. You still have 3 of the next 34 picks. Edge is deep, as are TE's.

[BklynJetsFan85]

On 1/1/2022 at 2:15 PM, FTL Jet Fan said:

I am sure I may be in the minority but I rather have Thibs than Hutchinson.

it's dicey. I like Hutchinson better. Slightly. Interesting article to read:

THE PROS FOR BOTH PASS-RUSHERS
Hutchinson, the PFF College Defensive Player of the Year, has several positives. At 6-foot-6, 265 pounds, he has an ideal blend of size, agility, power and technique. His 73 quarterback pressures led all Power 5 defenders, while his 25 stops against the run ranked eighth among the same group.

While all the physical attributes are there, the ability he has shown as the leader of Michigan's defense is what makes Hutchinson the special kind of prospect worthy of the No. 1 pick.

The Wolverines' coaching staff raves about Hutchinson's intangibles; his work ethic coming back from a broken leg in 2020 to take the Michigan program over the hump has become the stuff of legend. With him checking all the on-field and off-field boxes, it's difficult to see how he'd become a bust at the next level.

But that can also be said about Thibodeaux, as the Oregon star's future plans don't just include football accolades. In fact, he wants to open his own school one day and be a force for change. He is a prospect with special physical tools and a special human being. Thibodeaux has the kind of get-off at the line of scrimmage that is almost unheard of for a 6-5, nearly 260-pound defensive end.

Prospects with this kind of size and explosiveness don't need much in the way of pass-rushing moves to be an impact player, even at the NFL level. In fact, Thibodeaux earned a 91.5 pass-rushing grade this season without many pass-rushing moves to speak of whatsoever. If Thibodeaux can refine his bull rush and a counter off it, he can start racking up sacks from his first day in the NFL. Pairing him early in his career with a quality defensive line coach at the next level will be massive for him.

THE CONS
This is where Hutchinson separates himself, as it's difficult to look through his tape and find much to complain about. That's not too surprising, considering his 94.7 overall grade is the second-highest single-season mark we've ever awarded to a player since we started grading in 2014, behind only Ohio State defensive end Chase Young‘s 96.0 overall in 2019. Yes, that's higher than the grades of Nick and Joey Bosa, Myles Garrett and Bradley Chubb, who were all considered elite prospects in their time.

However, the biggest difference between the Michigan star and many of the top defensive ends of the past decade is age: The 21-year-old Hutchinson is a senior, and Dion Jordan in 2013 was the last defensive end who went in the top three and wasn't a true junior.

After three years at Michigan, Hutchinson wasn't close to a top-10-caliber prospect and was coming off a nondescript season that ended with a broken leg after just 149 snaps. He definitely qualifies as a bit of a one-year wonder.

We can't say the same for Thibodeaux, a five-star prospect who put up 10 sacks as a freshman All-American in 2019. He has been the focal point for opposing offenses to game-plan for since he stepped onto the field. His biggest negative is that he hasn't fully developed from that player with elite traits who could impact the game via sheer physical advantage.

Thibodeaux's weaknesses are obvious yet also very coachable. He too often still eschews pass-rushing technique for trying to out-athlete opposing tackles. If his initial move doesn't land, he is often stuck doing a whole lot of nothing — it's why you often saw some relatively quiet performances from him during the season. Of his 48 pressures this season, 27 came in three games — against Cal, UCLA and Oregon State.

 

HE NFL COMPS
Watching Hutchinson play, it's difficult not to hark back to former Chiefs and Vikings defensive end Jared Allen. Allen was 6-6, 265 and had several ways to win: He could beat you to the edge, beat you with power or beat you with his hands. Very much like Hutchinson, Allen made a living collapsing pockets and never being taken out of plays as a pass-rusher.

For Thibodeaux, his get-off presents so many problems for opposing offensive tackles that it's easily the most distinct aspect of his game. Most NFL players with comparable first steps, however, don't have the kind of frame and size as Thibodeaux. And that's why the best comp for what Thibodeaux brings to the table is former Giants defensive end Osi Umenyiora.

Umenyiora came out of Troy weighing 279 pounds and still ran in the 4.6s in the 40-yard dash before trimming down to play around 260. At that size, his ability to get upfield was as good as it got in the NFL. Thibodeaux could easily be a similar kind of sack artist in the league.

 

THE BOTTOM LINE
With two elite prospects at a high-value position, there's really not a wrong answer here for the Jaguars or Lions at the top of the draft. To chase Thibodeaux's theoretical “upside,” though, one has to admit that Hutchinson's “upside” is nothing to sneeze at either.

Hutchinson has every physical tool necessary to be among the elite edge rushers in the NFL. At that point, chasing what one player could be when another already is would be an unnecessary risk with such a premium draft slot at No. 1 overall. Why draft a lottery ticket like Thibodeaux when Hutchinson is like cash in the bank that can still accrue massive interest? The only question left to be answered is whether the Jags or Lions will agree.

[FTL Jet Fan]

9 minutes ago, BklynJetsFan85 said:

it's dicey. I like Hutchinson better. Slightly. Interesting article to read:

THE PROS FOR BOTH PASS-RUSHERS
Hutchinson, the PFF College Defensive Player of the Year, has several positives. At 6-foot-6, 265 pounds, he has an ideal blend of size, agility, power and technique. His 73 quarterback pressures led all Power 5 defenders, while his 25 stops against the run ranked eighth among the same group.

While all the physical attributes are there, the ability he has shown as the leader of Michigan's defense is what makes Hutchinson the special kind of prospect worthy of the No. 1 pick.

The Wolverines' coaching staff raves about Hutchinson's intangibles; his work ethic coming back from a broken leg in 2020 to take the Michigan program over the hump has become the stuff of legend. With him checking all the on-field and off-field boxes, it's difficult to see how he'd become a bust at the next level.

But that can also be said about Thibodeaux, as the Oregon star's future plans don't just include football accolades. In fact, he wants to open his own school one day and be a force for change. He is a prospect with special physical tools and a special human being. Thibodeaux has the kind of get-off at the line of scrimmage that is almost unheard of for a 6-5, nearly 260-pound defensive end.

Prospects with this kind of size and explosiveness don't need much in the way of pass-rushing moves to be an impact player, even at the NFL level. In fact, Thibodeaux earned a 91.5 pass-rushing grade this season without many pass-rushing moves to speak of whatsoever. If Thibodeaux can refine his bull rush and a counter off it, he can start racking up sacks from his first day in the NFL. Pairing him early in his career with a quality defensive line coach at the next level will be massive for him.

THE CONS
This is where Hutchinson separates himself, as it's difficult to look through his tape and find much to complain about. That's not too surprising, considering his 94.7 overall grade is the second-highest single-season mark we've ever awarded to a player since we started grading in 2014, behind only Ohio State defensive end Chase Young‘s 96.0 overall in 2019. Yes, that's higher than the grades of Nick and Joey Bosa, Myles Garrett and Bradley Chubb, who were all considered elite prospects in their time.

However, the biggest difference between the Michigan star and many of the top defensive ends of the past decade is age: The 21-year-old Hutchinson is a senior, and Dion Jordan in 2013 was the last defensive end who went in the top three and wasn't a true junior.

After three years at Michigan, Hutchinson wasn't close to a top-10-caliber prospect and was coming off a nondescript season that ended with a broken leg after just 149 snaps. He definitely qualifies as a bit of a one-year wonder.

We can't say the same for Thibodeaux, a five-star prospect who put up 10 sacks as a freshman All-American in 2019. He has been the focal point for opposing offenses to game-plan for since he stepped onto the field. His biggest negative is that he hasn't fully developed from that player with elite traits who could impact the game via sheer physical advantage.

Thibodeaux's weaknesses are obvious yet also very coachable. He too often still eschews pass-rushing technique for trying to out-athlete opposing tackles. If his initial move doesn't land, he is often stuck doing a whole lot of nothing — it's why you often saw some relatively quiet performances from him during the season. Of his 48 pressures this season, 27 came in three games — against Cal, UCLA and Oregon State.

 

HE NFL COMPS
Watching Hutchinson play, it's difficult not to hark back to former Chiefs and Vikings defensive end Jared Allen. Allen was 6-6, 265 and had several ways to win: He could beat you to the edge, beat you with power or beat you with his hands. Very much like Hutchinson, Allen made a living collapsing pockets and never being taken out of plays as a pass-rusher.

For Thibodeaux, his get-off presents so many problems for opposing offensive tackles that it's easily the most distinct aspect of his game. Most NFL players with comparable first steps, however, don't have the kind of frame and size as Thibodeaux. And that's why the best comp for what Thibodeaux brings to the table is former Giants defensive end Osi Umenyiora.

Umenyiora came out of Troy weighing 279 pounds and still ran in the 4.6s in the 40-yard dash before trimming down to play around 260. At that size, his ability to get upfield was as good as it got in the NFL. Thibodeaux could easily be a similar kind of sack artist in the league.

 

THE BOTTOM LINE
With two elite prospects at a high-value position, there's really not a wrong answer here for the Jaguars or Lions at the top of the draft. To chase Thibodeaux's theoretical “upside,” though, one has to admit that Hutchinson's “upside” is nothing to sneeze at either.

Hutchinson has every physical tool necessary to be among the elite edge rushers in the NFL. At that point, chasing what one player could be when another already is would be an unnecessary risk with such a premium draft slot at No. 1 overall. Why draft a lottery ticket like Thibodeaux when Hutchinson is like cash in the bank that can still accrue massive interest? The only question left to be answered is whether the Jags or Lions will agree.

Great article thanks for posting. I will believe it when I see it on an NFL field. Wish both the best, especially if one is a Jet.

 

[Origen]

Interesting.  I don't quite get the end, because I would assume that drafting the higher upside guy you only need to work on developing moves with is better than drafting the one year wonder who may have peaked?  Or am I missing something?

[win4ever]

I've been trying to get into Thibs because he could be a possible pick....and I don't know.  I'm not seeing the domination that warrants the praying for him to drop posts.  I might be crazy, but he really reminds me of Clowney in the NFL (not college).  He gets the right matchup, then he looks great, but gets shut down quite often as well.  

[derp]

5 minutes ago, Origen said:

Interesting.  I don't quite get the end, because I would assume that drafting the higher upside guy you only need to work on developing moves with is better than drafting the one year wonder who may have peaked?  Or am I missing something?

I think what the author is trying to express is that they think Hutchinson and Thibodeaux have comparable upsides but Hutchinson's farther along. Why take Thibodeaux and hope you can develop a guy with physical tools when you can take a guy with a physical tools who doesn't need that development in Hutchinson.

Thibodeaux to the Jets pretty much writes itself. They get a high upside guy at a position of need that half the fanbase already doesn't like.

[BklynJetsFan85]

39 minutes ago, Origen said:

Interesting.  I don't quite get the end, because I would assume that drafting the higher upside guy you only need to work on developing moves with is better than drafting the one year wonder who may have peaked?  Or am I missing something?

One is already where he needs to be = plug and play - Hutchinson. 

Thibs has the upside, but you have to pray that the Jets can help him hit his PROJECTED ceiling. I don't trust the Jets or their luck in that department - give me the sure thing 

[nycdan]

The article didn't mention one of the commonly cited concerns about Hutch which is he had Ojabo on the other side, where Thibs was more the sole focus of the OL he was facing.  On a good note for us, we will (hopefully) have one of these guys playing across from Lawson, which means they should have plenty of opportunities.  

[derp]

1 minute ago, nycdan said:

The article didn't mention one of the commonly cited concerns about Hutch which is he had Ojabo on the other side, where Thibs was more the sole focus of the OL he was facing.  On a good note for us, we will (hopefully) have one of these guys playing across from Lawson, which means they should have plenty of opportunities.  

Very legitimate concern for Hutchinson, plus the age thing they brought up. Really no clean prospects this year.

I do think JFM may be locked into a “starting” position. Extended and fits what SF does with Arik Armstead as a bigger edge who can kick inside. 

They rotate defensive linemen a ton anyway so a drafted edge would still play significant snaps - especially passing downs, when JFM can kick inside anyway - and then takes over for Lawson after his contract expires. Or best case the draft pick outplays Lawson and pushes him to the designated rusher role - which is still really important.

But unless they don’t like Lawson’s edge setting ability and prefer him in the designated rusher role I’d think it’d make more sense to prioritize pass rush traits early, not worry so much about guys who are raw against the run, turn them loose in passing situations, and develop edge setting over time. Thibodeaux, Ojabo, and I’d argue maybe even Karlaftis fall into this category although Karlaftis is a little different - I think fits better if he cuts weight or is capable of that. We’ll see what he wants to look like at the combine. 

The weird door three situation that I could see them doing is taking someone who could play either end spot and kick inside passing downs - Travon Walker, maybe Cameron Thomas, bigger Karlaftis could fall into this category too maybe - and drafting a leaner straight pass rusher (Nik Bonitto, maybe Myjai Sanders) day two. That’d potentially kick Williams off the field in obvious passing situations with versatile draft pick/JFM inside and pass rusher draft pick/Lawson on the edge. 

[BurntDice]

I just thought of something which may be a big issue if thibs is drafted. Who are the 2 best defensive players on this defense? Mosley and Quinnen. Where did they go to school? Alabama. Will they right off the bat not like him and it will cause a problem?