Final games for the following Jets> Lawson, Davis ..

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

57 minutes ago, shuler82 said:

 

I don't disagree in theory on Tomlinson and Davis. But your plan doesn't account for who would be available in FA to replace them.  

WR FA list 2023 -  Lazard, Sterling Shephard, DJ Chark, Randall Cobb, Marvin Jones, Schuster, Myers.  Who do you want that's an improvement and at what cost?

G FA list 2023 - Pugh, Saffold, Pryor, Seumalo...    

C FA list 2023 - Hudson, Kelce (both 34+)  and a bunch of crap. 

I think there's a world where Tomlinson gets cut, but given his locker room presence and his one year removed from being considered one of the top guards in football, my guy says the Jets plug him in next year.  Guy is 30 - not 35. He can bounce back, even if he will be overpaid. 

Again, Davis - who do you want from that WR list? We can spend less money and also get worse at the position. 

At center, I'm actually worried the Jets are going to be outbid for McGovern. Maybe it's for the best if we're talking 10M+ .. but then we need to find our man. Herbig is a  cheaper possibility, but I'm pretty sure he plays better at guard. 

Looking at Over The Cap, I think the most realistic cuts are:

1) Whitehead.  $7.25M cap savings.  Guy can hit but his pass coverage has been highly suspect. Only problem our S pipeline is weak.

2) Berrios -  $5M cap savings.  He's the WR who gets cut, with Moore already on the roster, And we draft someone mid rounds to be our 4/5 guy.

3) Lawson - $15M savings.  Saleh loves his DL, so a little tough to see. But if we resign Huff, and Clemons and Johnson continue to come on,  it's a possibility. I also wonder whether Lawson would be better in his 2nd year post achilles. 

4) Ashtyn Davis - $1.2M

5) Bryce Hall -  $1M

6) Mann - $1M

That gives you $30M to work with.. IF we cut Lawson.  I'm thinking we won't. So we're at $15M plus our $16M carry over. 

I'd then look to restructure Mosley and Tomlinson if possible, which would get us to around $40M... which we'd then be needing to find our starting C,  both safeties, resign Quincy Williams and/or Kwon Alexander, and figure out our DT situation since Rankins, Sheppard and Thomas are all FAs.  And oh yeah,  Mike White.  One bit of good news- Huff is a RFA in 2023. 

 

We've been flush with money (and no players) for so long, it's a strange position to be in. 

 

 

 

 

Appreciate the research and effort.  Good discussion.  All good thoughts.  
 

If you read one of my follow-uos, I have us drafting. Center in round 2-3 and a WR in round 1.  I don’t know all those FA guards but looks like a good starting point.  
 

Stella lost her groove and Tomlinson lost his anchor.  

[#27TheDominator]

2 hours ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

Ok agree to disagree.  I think the roster is very talented in spots and needs an upgrade in others.

Definitely not as high on Lawson as you.  JJ hasn’t had the opportunities on third down so his sacks won’t be there.  I love Huff by acknowledge his limitations as an every down player.

I have Brown, AVT and possibly Mitchell returning as starters.  Hope the letters health issues are behind him.

I will bet you a fake $1M that Lawson is cut after this year.

I am not that high on Lawson.  I think the staff is high on Lawson.  He is what they want. Tomlinson. Davis. Lawson and Mosley . I am betting at least two are back.

[Maynard13]

11 hours ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

1. Edge Lawson.  JJ & Clemons are better against the run and are only getting started as pass rushers.  Huff is our pass rushing specialist on the other side.  Save $15M.

2. WR Davis.  Cannot stay healthy, is only OK at getting open, and is not a red zone threat.  Save $10M

3. Interior OLine.  Why?  Because we cannot run on first down (or any down), SUCK at short yardage and consistently fail to create a clean pocket (especially in critical situations).

(Our ‘too smart’ OC decides to keep running on 1st down, uses 2nd down to minimize 3rd & long and then passes or runs trick plays on both 3rd & short/long because we cannot run.)

Tomlinson.  Don’t let the door hit you in the a$$.  Save ~$13M next year with a post June 1 cut.  A little more than $4M dead cap hit in both 2023 and 2024

McGovern.  Has his strengths but is part of the above problem and will be on the wrong side of 30

Herbig.  Deserves an overachiever award but is little more than a quality backup.  50/50 he’s back as a reserve 

4. Fant.  Thanks for 2021 and good luck in free agency.  This is an easy one.

(A healthy Brown and AVT are our only returning starters + Mitchell who has health issues.  Brown has played hurt and still been our best run blocker while holding up reasonably well on the outside (1 sack); the Jets can upgrade in only so many spots and his $6.3M dead cap makes cutting less probable)

5. FS Joyner.  Bad move getting rid of Pinnock who is starting and playing well for the Giants.  Short sighted move actually..

6. LB Mosley.  No way the Jets are paying him $17M salary.  Stupid penalty against the Bills, responsible for the late Lions TD, and continues to be a liability in coverage.  50/50 he comes back with a pay cut.  JD doesn’t just keep him for sentimental hogwash.

7. Rankins.  In the running for Most Improved Player award.  I’m leaning toward re-signing but you never know with free agency.  60/40 he returns 

8. White.  TBD.  Let’s see if he can come back this year and decide from there.  50/50 he returns in 2023.

9. Berrios.  #2 slot + top 3 fair catch rate punt returners don’t make $5.5M salary for gadget plays; save $5M

10. Mann.  Captain Shank, Captain Touchback.. Save $1M.

The Jets save $43M cutting Lawson, Davis and Tomlinson, and Berrios.  Can save millions more asking Mosley for a pay cut or replacing him outright post June 1

So the Jets would have roughly $51M to work with using projected 2023 salary cap (net of rookie pool) and possibly up to $55-60M if they  adjust or move on from Mosley.  Plus the draft.

QB, G, C, RT, #2 WR (not named Mims), DT (re-sign Rankins), Tender Huff ($5M+), 2 LBs (re-sign Quincy, possibly replace Mosley), FS, and Punter

@Jetsfan80 is asking why Zach isn’t on this list. ?‍♂️

[BurntDice]

This is treading some very dangerous water. What if brown retires which seems kind of likely? The line will be AVT and ? 
 

We hear it every year. Cut all these players! You need to think about who will be replacing them. You want to bank on a 3rd round rookie C starting? The FA guards don’t look very promising. Who’s the RT? Who’s the LT? OL is very expensive old man brown got 10+ mil and hes almost 40 years old.

Cut Davis? Replace him with a rookie 1st round WR? 

So rookie 1st round wr which makes the room GW, Moore, Mims, and rookie. Only 1 guy who has proven to be productive (GW) 

0 returning safeties, starting edge players are 2nd year guys who haven’t had many reps, rookie mlb. 
 

I know it’s very early in thinking about the off-season, but I just think it’s very helpful to pick real players to plug in instead of imaginary ones with made up contracts. It helps to see if the projection is even possible.

 

[Dcat]

13 hours ago, bitonti said:

It's ridiculous that the Jets offensive line has had so many resources poured into it and they are still terrible. Who gives George Fant 10 million and thinks that's smart? Who gives Laken 18 per? Duane brown has played with a torn rotation cuff all year. Connor McGovern has been overrated since he arrived at 8 mil. Becton is basically a bust at this point. Remember Ryan Kalil? 

Yes avt is great the Jets are going to have to replace 2-4 starters, again.

Joe Douglas has shown gross mismanagement at qb and ol. 

 

And his handling of the wo position isn't much better. Wilson and Moore are players but the Corey Davis signing/berrios resign were also terrible 

Mostly agree with the above but the Corey Davis signing was actually well timed.  Now that his replacement is here, bye bye and no cap hit. Works well.   I honestly think they signed Berrios as a mascot for Zach. Oh no...  I forgot that this message board mostly thinks Berrios is Wayne Chrebet II.  

[Irish Jet]

13 hours ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

It was Carter who picked him up to late but that's the thing with McGovern.  He doesn't seem to be a good general directing blocking assignments.  Jets often get hurt by stunts and blitzes.  But tough to tell in this case without knowing the nuances of their blocking scheme.  

This is understatement of the year.

He's a complete fraud and replacing him should be a priority. The untouched interior rush has been a theme of his entire run here. 

[neckdemon]

17 hours ago, rangerous said:

no issues with lawson or davis.  hard to say about the oline guys until becton's status becomes clear.  avt and mitchell should be ready and even though mcgovern is getting on the wrong side of 30 he's been pretty durable. the other guys are sort of coin flips.  isn't this quinnen's 4th year?  have they picked up the option?  mike white?  keep him if possible.  he's shown he can run lafleur's offense.

becton is done man. if JD counts on him at all again next year he should be fired. dude can't last more than a couple games in this league

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

8 hours ago, Maynard13 said:

@Jetsfan80 is asking why Zach isn’t on this list. ?‍♂️

Because he has a fully guaranteed 4 year contract

[Augustiniak]

2 hours ago, neckdemon said:

becton is done man. if JD counts on him at all again next year he should be fired. dude can't last more than a couple games in this league

It would not surprise me in the least if the highest priority FA signing is a tackle.  It’s clear douglas wants to build the lines and in fairness keeps drafting OL.  I highly doubt douglas is relying on becton for anything at this point.  Also, if douglas can get a decent trade for him he’s gone.

[Long Island Leprechaun]

18 hours ago, JTJet said:

Idl but I would assume it most likely was considering he ran directly up the middle. 

Where was Herbig? He played like crap all game. I wouldn't be surprised if it was on him.

[Sperm Edwards]

18 hours ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

Round 3 Center definitely has some risk, no question but that risks goes down when sandwiched between AVT and a premium RG.  I don't believe Herbig is that guy and I'm highly confident Tomlinson is not (made worse when he is due to count $17M against the cap).  We get pushed around like rag dolls in the middle and can't create space.  Maybe we grab our Center in the 2nd round.  Not much different than a first round tackle starting because the 2nd round is where you tend to have a shot at the cream of the (center) crop.   

I used to believe that McGovern was underrated by Jets fans.  Now I believe he is part of the problem.  But to be fair, I would need to look at film a lot more.  Maybe he is hurt by the play of Tomlinson and Herbig.  Our run game up the middle and to the right is AWFUL..  We are best running left.  

I do know this, the Jet's offensive line is nowhere near good enough and first round is reserved for a stud receiver in 2023.  I had us taking Sauce and a WR this past year, and I'm becoming more sure that WR #2 (and red zone threat) needs a major upgrade that realistically will come from the draft given the cost of WR trades and free agents.   

Yeah I’m not with you there. Tomlinson was supposed to be that premium guard - coming from the same offense/blocking, no less - and look for that turned out. Now imagine a bust rookie or a sub-Feeney depth starter in there every week next to him at center all year.

Centers aren’t premium position linemen, and mostly all they need is not-terrible, though an actual asset is of course the goal. Running zone, one rookie who doesn’t know his assignments cold makes every other improvement moot on too many plays. He slides to the left thinking he has help to the right, and a defender comes in up the guy totally unblocked. It’ll happen often.

So we’ll just disagree that JD can head into the draft with no starting center in place, target a specific round for a replacement outside the top 75 picks, and it not being likely to blow up in his face. If you’re dissatisfied with McGovern I’m shocked you’d be satisfied with a coin toss, unknown, mid-round rookie who might not even be there to be had in this draft. 

[peebag]

13 hours ago, #27TheDominator said:

I am not that high on Lawson.  I think the staff is high on Lawson.  He is what they want. Tomlinson. Davis. Lawson and Mosley . I am betting at least two are back.

Just for salary cap reasons alone.

[varjet]

The Jets cannot afford TO CUT Tomlinson.  He has the Jets where he wants them.  The Jets cannot go into 2023 without him on the roster.  Shame, but true.  

The Jets cannot afford NOT TO CUT Lawson.  They have a relative surplus at the position.  They need to sign more OL and a QB.

The Jets cannot afford NOT TO CUT Davis.  They need to roll the dice on the PS guys and Mims.  He is too expensive to play 8 games.

The Jets cannot afford NOT TO CUT Mosely.  He is too expensive for what he does.  At that price he is nice to have if there is cap space, but next year there will not be cap space.    

Cut also means a significant restructure.  

[Barry McCockinner]

For those of you in a rush to show Corey Davis the door ...

 

[Lurker89]

On 12/20/2022 at 11:29 AM, bitonti said:

It's ridiculous that the Jets offensive line has had so many resources poured into it and they are still terrible. Who gives George Fant 10 million and thinks that's smart? Who gives Laken 18 per? Duane brown has played with a torn rotation cuff all year. Connor McGovern has been overrated since he arrived at 8 mil. Becton is basically a bust at this point. Remember Ryan Kalil? 

Yes avt is great the Jets are going to have to replace 2-4 starters, again.

Joe Douglas has shown gross mismanagement at qb and ol. 

 

And his handling of the wo position isn't much better. Wilson and Moore are players but the Corey Davis signing/berrios resign were also terrible 

Nothing to disagree with here and I kike JD.... but this **** needs to get cleaned up 

[Lurker89]

15 hours ago, Dcat said:

Mostly agree with the above but the Corey Davis signing was actually well timed.  Now that his replacement is here, bye bye and no cap hit. Works well.   I honestly think they signed Berrios as a mascot for Zach. Oh no...  I forgot that this message board mostly thinks Berrios is Wayne Chrebet II.  

Berrios has been god awful if we are being objectively  honest.... horrible.... easy cut

[Cut Jet Penalty Makers]

Add Ashtyn Davis to the bye bye list. Another bad pick from the disastrous 2020 draft.

[JohnnyLV]

On 12/20/2022 at 8:13 AM, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

1. Edge Lawson.  JJ & Clemons are better against the run and are only getting started as pass rushers.  Huff is our pass rushing specialist on the other side.  Save $15M.

2. WR Davis.  Cannot stay healthy, is only OK at getting open, and is not a red zone threat.  Save $10M

3. Interior OLine.  Why?  Because we cannot run on first down (or any down), SUCK at short yardage and consistently fail to create a clean pocket (especially in critical situations).

(Our ‘too smart’ OC decides to keep running on 1st down, uses 2nd down to minimize 3rd & long and then passes or runs trick plays on both 3rd & short/long because we cannot run.)

Tomlinson.  Don’t let the door hit you in the a$$.  Save ~$13M next year with a post June 1 cut.  A little more than $4M dead cap hit in both 2023 and 2024

McGovern.  Has his strengths but is part of the above problem and will be on the wrong side of 30

Herbig.  Deserves an overachiever award but is little more than a quality backup.  50/50 he’s back as a reserve 

4. Fant.  Thanks for 2021 and good luck in free agency.  This is an easy one.

(A healthy Brown and AVT are our only returning starters + Mitchell who has health issues.  Brown has played hurt and still been our best run blocker while holding up reasonably well on the outside (1 sack); the Jets can upgrade in only so many spots and his $6.3M dead cap makes cutting less probable)

5. FS Joyner.  Bad move getting rid of Pinnock who is starting and playing well for the Giants.  Short sighted move actually..

6. LB Mosley.  No way the Jets are paying him $17M salary.  Stupid penalty against the Bills, responsible for the late Lions TD, and continues to be a liability in coverage.  50/50 he comes back with a pay cut.  JD doesn’t just keep him for sentimental hogwash.

7. Rankins.  In the running for Most Improved Player award.  I’m leaning toward re-signing but you never know with free agency.  60/40 he returns 

8. White.  TBD.  Let’s see if he can come back this year and decide from there.  50/50 he returns in 2023.

9. Berrios.  #2 slot + top 3 fair catch rate punt returners don’t make $5.5M salary for gadget plays; save $5M

10. Mann.  Captain Shank, Captain Touchback.. Save $1M.

The Jets save $43M cutting Lawson, Davis and Tomlinson, and Berrios.  Can save millions more asking Mosley for a pay cut or replacing him outright post June 1

So the Jets would have roughly $51M to work with using projected 2023 salary cap (net of rookie pool) and possibly up to $55-60M if they  adjust or move on from Mosley.  Plus the draft.

QB, G, C, RT, #2 WR (not named Mims), DT (re-sign Rankins), Tender Huff ($5M+), 2 LBs (re-sign Quincy, possibly replace Mosley), FS, and Punter

So you are cutting our entire OL? I mean you essentially listed our starting OL for tomorrow... McGovern should be extended actually, he is our most dependable lineman and is far from done...he is a pretty decent player. 

I keep Davis. He is relatively cheap as WRs go and he is a decent player. Maybe he can be a little healthier next year.

Could definitely see us dumping Mann and Barrios. Fant and Lawson seem like no brainers.

NEED TO EXTEND HUFF I would not even consider risking him on a 1st rd tender. And if we get cute and do a 2nd or 3rd he is gone. I could care less that he is not good at setting the edge. He is a dominant pass rusher and probably has 6 or 7 assists where he was directly responsible for someone else getting the sack

White is tricky. His injury makes him somewhat easier to keep but he might see a better opportunity somewhere else.

If we go the vet QB route, I could actually see us pursuing Geno. It's largely the same offense. Don't think they will but Carr and Jimmy G seem like non-starters. I would not be shocked if our first 3 picks next draft are QB. WR and OL

 

 

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

9 hours ago, johnnysd said:

So you are cutting our entire OL? I mean you essentially listed our starting OL for tomorrow... McGovern should be extended actually, he is our most dependable lineman and is far from done...he is a pretty decent player. 

I keep Davis. He is relatively cheap as WRs go and he is a decent player. Maybe he can be a little healthier next year.

Could definitely see us dumping Mann and Barrios. Fant and Lawson seem like no brainers.

NEED TO EXTEND HUFF I would not even consider risking him on a 1st rd tender. And if we get cute and do a 2nd or 3rd he is gone. I could care less that he is not good at setting the edge. He is a dominant pass rusher and probably has 6 or 7 assists where he was directly responsible for someone else getting the sack

White is tricky. His injury makes him somewhat easier to keep but he might see a better opportunity somewhere else.

If we go the vet QB route, I could actually see us pursuing Geno. It's largely the same offense. Don't think they will but Carr and Jimmy G seem like non-starters. I would not be shocked if our first 3 picks next draft are QB. WR and OL

 

 

We disagree on OL, although I have Brown returning and do admit I need to look more closely at McGovern who I have previously thought was underrated.  
 

With you on our top 3 picks except I might have  WR, OL, QB.  

[Adoni Beast]

I think Lawson and Davis comeback on re-worked deals and we look to draft Davis’ replacement and/or hope Mims steps it up a bit more.

[#27TheDominator]

Afraid of a 1st round tender for Huff and  you all NEED to cut Lawson?  Holy sh*t.  Somebody give us a 1st for Huff and it is party time.