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Cimini: Rumblings Of R1 Trade Down


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On 1/23/2024 at 12:54 AM, Greenseed4 said:

Didn’t we in essence “trade down” just last year as part of the Rodgers trade?

 

I can see us doing something similar this year. Say swap our #10 for the Raider’s #13 (let them come up for Penix or McCarthy in front of MIN and DEN), and trade us Adams.  We would also need to toss in a future 2 that could become a 1, and some other mid round pick(s), but we can get a quality starting OL later in the first.

I'd do this trade except with Denver. Give us Courtland Sutton and come up for your QB

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26 minutes ago, Adoni Beast said:

Techniques and assignments in NCAA are so much different than the NFL compared to previous decades.

More reason why the NCAA is poop, and the NFL should move away from using the NCAA as a proxy-minor league and form their own for-profit minor league in non-NFL cities/regions to develop talent, with no age restrictions, and moderate salaries.  The NCAA would be dead as a meaningful football entity within a few years, and all that revenue would go the NFL instead.  Win/win, schools can go back to being places for education, and the NFL can help develop talent for their needs in a far superior way, and develop coaches too.

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21 minutes ago, Warfish said:

More reason why the NCAA is poop, and the NFL should move away from using the NCAA as a proxy-minor league and form their own for-profit minor league in non-NFL cities/regions to develop talent, with no age restrictions, and moderate salaries.  The NCAA would be dead as a meaningful football entity within a few years, and all that revenue would go the NFL instead.  Win/win, schools can go back to being places for education, and the NFL can help develop talent for their needs in a far superior way, and develop coaches too.

Very true but too much $ and politics (especially in the South) involved in NCAAF for this to ever happen.

These schools are brand name entities and there is too much $ to be made off of them to actually do the reasonable thing and create a minor league NFL.

But yes I completely agree that this should be the path forward.

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Just now, Adoni Beast said:

Very true but too much $ and politics (especially in the South) involved in NCAAF for this to ever happen.

These schools are brand name entities and there is too much $ to be made off of them to actually do the reasonable thing and create a minor league NFL.

But yes I completely agree that this should be the path forward.

Oh, I know it's an unrealistic pie dream, lol, no worries.  I don't think, if done right, it wouldn't work.....but the NFL doesn't care if the NCAA sucks universally, it's free.  And a mediocre free developmental league is likely better than building their own developmental league up from nothing to assume that role (and eventually revenue one might presume).

I just loathe almost everything about the NCAA, and would prefer Universities focus on education (and reducing the cost thereof!) and let private enterprise handle the for-profit developmental leagues and professional leagues of the major sports.  

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Trading down from 10 for a late 1st and a 2nd, is kinda like trading Garrett Wilson for Jermain Johnson and Breece Hall.

An argument can be made both ways.

All depends on 'who we passed on at 10' and 'who we snagged later on'. Problem is we'll never know who we passed on at 10. Like if some great player was taken by another team in the 4th round, we'll forever be "we coulda had THAT player, but noooo, we traded down"!!

We'll always be comparing the 2 guys we got with every other player taken from #10 on down the entire draft!

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25 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Oh, I know it's an unrealistic pie dream, lol, no worries.  I don't think, if done right, it wouldn't work.....but the NFL doesn't care if the NCAA sucks universally, it's free.  And a mediocre free developmental league is likely better than building their own developmental league up from nothing to assume that role (and eventually revenue one might presume).

I just loathe almost everything about the NCAA, and would prefer Universities focus on education (and reducing the cost thereof!) and let private enterprise handle the for-profit developmental leagues and professional leagues of the major sports.  

I hate the NCAA and everything it "stands for." It's a joke with a baked in sales funnel. They need to sledgehammer it to pieces but the general public doesn't want that because they can't understand that the product sucks.

If we had a commissioner with some real balls though and made a minor league-farm system that pays players well and have the season beginning of March to end of June it would eliminate players going to the NCAA and you'd have a great league where Alabama level players never play Arkansas - Woodmaker - Tech University level players.

I think after you've actually destroyed the NCAA then you would move the minor league farm season to mirror the NFL, where players can be called up like baseball to help support injuries etc and send players down. Have the games on weekday nights and Saturday all day. The NFL can then take over Saturday night games all year and hopefully do away with the need for Thursday night games now that their minor league is generating that revenue and the league is killing it with profit.

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23 hours ago, Warfish said:

White Knights are so cute.

The 'JD drafted an Edge instead of reaching for an O-lineman or taking a WR last year, watch him do it again!' joke is so monumentally played out I feel sad for Jet fans who come on the forum to post about it. 

I'm not even defending JD. It's just a lame take. 

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14 minutes ago, PepPep said:

I'm not even defending JD.

If you say so.

14 minutes ago, PepPep said:

It's just a lame take. 

You're entitled to your opinion.  But given that post is the most-repped post in this thread, and all the reps are positive, your opinion would seem to be in the minority.  Maybe lighten up.  Not every post needs a White Knight to come galloping to JD's defense.

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I'm not gonna lie, moving down for AD Mitchell or Troy Franklin and then drafting basically whoever drops to you out of Byron Murphy II, Kris Jenkins, Cooper Beebe, Powers-Johnson sounds pretty damn appealing.  Then it opens up your 3rd to go a number of different ways.  Like a box safety like Sione Vaki who is a machine.  Maybe you can then take QB like Pratt in the 3rd since you already addressed two major needs.  Maybe you can take one of the top RBs.  Or you can just take the other position between OL/DL, depending on how you drafted in the 2nd.  It fills a lot of needs.

 

That said, I'd still lean towards taking the elite talent in Bowers/Nabers/Odunze/Olu/Alt if they're there.  I can see a scenario play out pretty easily where we get to choose between Bowers and Olu.  If you take the LT, trade up from the 3rd into the 2nd for a WR if one slips.  If you take Bowers, trade up into the 2nd for Beebe or Haynes or Powers-Johnson - bounce AVT to RT and slot whoever you take in at RG from day one(or Powers-Johnson at C and Tippmann at RG).  

 

The way I look at it is, chances are we won't have a chance at a LT like Olu in the draft for a long time.  Especially if we plan on being competitive going forward.  You just don't get guys like that at pick 20 and beyond, and if we're not picking in that 20 range next year, something has gone terribly wrong and sh*t's probably about to be blown up.  As far as Bowers goes, you'll probably never see a kid like him again regardless of where you're drafting.  Dudes like him just don't come around too often, if ever.  Take advantage of the fact that you'll be in a position to take an elite talent.  

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3 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

WE have our center, no reason to draft a center and then move the guy we drafted our center to be a guard.

Just draft a guard.

IF we managed to trade down then go 1st OT, 2nd WR, 3rd OG

Centers play guard too, almost always. It's an easy transition and easier to play G than C. Having two guys on the roster who can play center at a high level would be a good thing. 

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The Jets should end up with 8 picks in the draft before any trade downs.

Currently we have: 1,3,4,4,6

But the projections are for us to get three compensatory picks, either 6, 7, 7 or 7, 7, 7

So it should look something like this:

1,3,4,4,6,6,7,7

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2 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Centers play guard too, almost always. It's an easy transition and easier to play G than C. Having two guys on the roster who can play center at a high level would be a good thing. 

If the very best olinemn sitting there is a center who you feel can easily move?  Go for it but I am not passing on a better pure guard just to have a 2nd center

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2 hours ago, Warfish said:

Oh, I know it's an unrealistic pie dream, lol, no worries.  I don't think, if done right, it wouldn't work.....but the NFL doesn't care if the NCAA sucks universally, it's free.  And a mediocre free developmental league is likely better than building their own developmental league up from nothing to assume that role (and eventually revenue one might presume).

I just loathe almost everything about the NCAA, and would prefer Universities focus on education (and reducing the cost thereof!) and let private enterprise handle the for-profit developmental leagues and professional leagues of the major sports.  

 

2 hours ago, Warfish said:

More reason why the NCAA is poop, and the NFL should move away from using the NCAA as a proxy-minor league and form their own for-profit minor league in non-NFL cities/regions to develop talent, with no age restrictions, and moderate salaries.  The NCAA would be dead as a meaningful football entity within a few years, and all that revenue would go the NFL instead.  Win/win, schools can go back to being places for education, and the NFL can help develop talent for their needs in a far superior way, and develop coaches too.

Interesting conversation.  A few thoughts/questions.

College Football started before Professional Football.  Universities having been playing Football for almost 150 years in some cases.  Like the tradition, the money is deep and old, especially in the South, where many people prefer Saturdays.  it's literally in their blood. 

Only 1.6% of collegiate Football players make the NFL.  So I dont know how you would create this league, how are you identifying that group in High School?  Not all 5 stars are even good in college let alone make the NFL.  While some 3 stars become incredible Pros.  How would you find these players?  It cant be you find them in college because by the time they'd make it through this minor league system, they'd have what 1-3 years before they're old?  And how would that work when the average NFL career is 2 years long?

And how would the product be better?  It's the same pool of players.  Do you think the coaches in this league would be better then Saban?  Harbaugh?  Smart?  How would the development be any different?   

I hate the current state of the NCAA.  It's awful, but I just dont see how this would work if you could get away from it.

 

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1 hour ago, JustInFudge said:

College Football started before Professional Football.  Universities having been playing Football for almost 150 years in some cases.  Like the tradition, the money is deep and old, especially in the South, where many people prefer Saturdays.  it's literally in their blood. 

No question there is an emotional historical investment in the current system, fed by annual classes of kids going to those schools.

Overcoming that would be a massive effort, with uncertain outcomes, no question, 100% right.

1 hour ago, JustInFudge said:

Only 1.6% of collegiate Football players make the NFL.  So I dont know how you would create this league, how are you identifying that group in High School?  Not all 5 stars are even good in college let alone make the NFL.  While some 3 stars become incredible Pros.  How would you find these players?

Same way the MLB finds them, and same way the NBA finds them now a days. 

Scouting Dept. would be much bigger and spend most of their time scouting HS sports as well as amateur leagues.

1 hour ago, JustInFudge said:

It cant be you find them in college because by the time they'd make it through this minor league system, they'd have what 1-3 years before they're old?   And how would that work when the average NFL career is 2 years long?

They'd have the same amount of time, presumably, that a college draftee has today.  

Most with a top-league future would have a 2-4 year period (age 17/18 to 21/22) in the minor league, then be escalated to the Pros.

But like MLB, many in the lower leagues would never advance, play several years (paid) in the minors, then wash out, replaced by the new year's crop of kids.  Not sure I see the issue here.

1 hour ago, JustInFudge said:

And how would the product be better?  It's the same pool of players.

The NCAA has what, 858 teams currently at the various levels?

Each with a minimum of 63 rostered players (and many with many, many more!).

The minor league would (IMO) be made up of 32 minor league teams (1 per Pro team) with a roster of 56 players.

Take the best 1,792 players out of that 54,000, and the best 32 Coaches out of that 858, and I think you'd see a pretty solid sports product on the field.  Hell, double the roster sized and it's still the best ~4,000 out of the current 54,000.

1 hour ago, JustInFudge said:

  Do you think the coaches in this league would be better then Saban?  Harbaugh?  Smart?  How would the development be any different? 

I think the Coaches in this league would BE Saban, Harbaugh, etc.

Without the massive TV contracts, there is no $10 million/year college Coaches/Public Employees. 

Nor should there be, IMO.

1 hour ago, JustInFudge said:

I hate the current state of the NCAA.  It's awful, but I just dont see how this would work if you could get away from it.

It would be a massive, massive challenge, I 100% agree with you.  But it could be done I think.  And the world as a whole would be better, IMO, if it was done.  But it would have to be generational shift, it takes time to rewrite the world sometimes.

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Such is life as a Jets fan.  Championship game weekend approaching and since of course we never make the playoffs we've already had weeks of preparation for the draft which is still two months out.  And we still won't get it right.  Any chance if we ask the Packers really nicely that they will give us back our 2nd round pick since it all worked out so well for them?  Just nauseating...   

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17 hours ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

And I remember hearing that the best C in this draft might fall to the 3rd round.  If we drafted a LT in round 1, the best OG in round 2 and the top C in round 3, we could move Tippmann to the other OG spot and AVT to RT.  That would be a complete rebuild of the OL, which is what we desperately need.  Take a WR in round 4 and sign a couple of FAs.

I like your thinking!!  If you and I can come up with this logic, I would hope and expect that Joe Douglas and company can come up to the same conclusions.  Let's cross our fingers!!  lol

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On 1/23/2024 at 8:50 AM, HighPitch said:

Once again, ive played the simulators dozens of times each day. No matter what you always do better with a trade down to grab a second.

 

The difference between 10 and say 19 isnt monumental, so it makes sense and we have too many needs

 

what dumb jd needs to do is go on a MAJOR smokescreen display and show lots of interest in QBs. At 10, if teams suspect the jets will grab their qb, they will trade. honestly a qb in round 1 is what he should do anyways but...

The reason that you "do better" with a trade down is because before they play a down all those late 1st and 2nd round players are studs that will help the team.  In practice you are often ending up with Coples and Mims.  The key to all this sh*t is not trading up or down, it is targeting the right players.  Period. 

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The reason that you "do better" with a trade down is because before they play a down all those late 1st and 2nd round players are studs that will help the team.  In practice you are often ending up with Coples and Mims.  The key to all this sh*t is not trading up or down, it is targeting the right players.  Period. 
I agree with what you are saying.. but if you think you can get the player you want and drop a few slots down to recoup a 2nd round pick .. I think you do it... Does not change the fact that you need a competent scouting department.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

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I know there's this contingent of fans who want a trade down so we can regain a 2nd rounder, but instead what about trading up from the 3rd?  I'd imagine our 3rd, one of our 4ths(assuming we have two - I've seen conflicting info on this), and perhaps a 4th next year/3rd tops.  You can still take Fashanu at 10, but then move into the 2nd for whoever slips out of that B-tier of WR prospects(Legette, Mitchell, Franklin, Walker, McConkey, Coleman, etc).  Or you do the reverse, take Bowers or Odunze at 10 if one is there, and move up for one of the top IOL, be it Fautanu, Barton, Beebe, Powers-Johnson.  Then you can bounce AVT out to RT.

 

You'll only end up with like 4 picks total(unless we get some comp picks as well), but IMO it wouldn't be the worst strategy in the world.  Make sure you walk away with two immediate impact players.

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45 minutes ago, Dunnie said:

I agree with what you are saying.. but if you think you can get the player you want and drop a few slots down to recoup a 2nd round pick .. I think you do it... Does not change the fact that you need a competent scouting department.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
 

Agreed.

It is just that all the people acting like dropping down is no big deal are the same ones whining about missing out on Broderick Jones.  They were all dancing the jig at that awesome class that Idzik drafted in 2014.  Woo Hoo!

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35 minutes ago, bonkertons said:

I know there's this contingent of fans who want a trade down so we can regain a 2nd rounder, but instead what about trading up from the 3rd?  I'd imagine our 3rd, one of our 4ths(assuming we have two - I've seen conflicting info on this), and perhaps a 4th next year/3rd tops.  You can still take Fashanu at 10, but then move into the 2nd for whoever slips out of that B-tier of WR prospects(Legette, Mitchell, Franklin, Walker, McConkey, Coleman, etc).  Or you do the reverse, take Bowers or Odunze at 10 if one is there, and move up for one of the top IOL, be it Fautanu, Barton, Beebe, Powers-Johnson.  Then you can bounce AVT out to RT.

 

You'll only end up with like 4 picks total(unless we get some comp picks as well), but IMO it wouldn't be the worst strategy in the world.  Make sure you walk away with two immediate impact players.

Last time we only had 4 selections we made the AFC Championship!  Our best season of the milnlenium!

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19 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Last time we only had 4 selections we made the AFC Championship!  Our best season of the milnlenium!

lol and imagine that was a decent draft, how good we could have been?  God, that draft was horrible.  Kyle Wilson and Vlad Ducasse.....the best player was a freaking fullback.

 

...also, why in god's name did we draft a fullback when we only had 4 picks?  Who knows.  But yeah, this year should be a bit different since it should be a lot harder for us to **** up the 10th overall pick, especially with how stacked the top of this draft is offensively.  We shall see though.

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7 minutes ago, bonkertons said:

lol and imagine that was a decent draft, how good we could have been?  God, that draft was horrible.  Kyle Wilson and Vlad Ducasse.....the best player was a freaking fullback.

 

...also, why in god's name did we draft a fullback when we only had 4 picks?  Who knows.  But yeah, this year should be a bit different since it should be a lot harder for us to **** up the 10th overall pick, especially with how stacked the top of this draft is offensively.  We shall see though.

The year before they only had three!  Also a great season!

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On 1/23/2024 at 9:12 AM, PepPep said:

Probably just smoke at this point, but if it's not, also makes a ton of sense with the Jets presumably missing out on the top 2 OTs.

It is easier to pull off a trade where you don't get ripped off before the draft than during the draft. If JD is 80% certain that the top 2 OT's are going to be gone by pick 10 and that is the position he is targeting, makes a ton of sense to move back now, rather than wait and hope a trade materializes on draft day.  

I know the Jets had McDonald high on their boards. I know they were happy to draft him. But we also saw JD feverishly working the phones to move down (to no avail) when Pitt took OT-B.Jones just ahead of them. I doubt he wants that to happen again.

The flip side is that pick #10 is not pick #15. And those 5 spots make a huge difference. At pick #10 it may be more prudent to wait and see how the drat develops. Crazy things always happen in the draft. I would not be surprised at all if we saw unlikely risers that end up going much higher than expected, pushing down other prospects - such as Alt or Fashanu. We all saw a number of reasonable mocks on this forum where Alt or Fashanu falls to #10. A couple of teams just have to value certain prospects a little higher than others.

Bottom line. Probably too early to actually make any deal for either team but I would not be surprised if JD was in preliminary talks.    

What's missing from this is whether he'd still have been feverishly working the phones just the same (if not harder) even if Broderick Jones was still on the board. Everyone's blindly assuming Douglas would have his pick rushed to the podium right away for Jones.

What was missing was any sense of panic - or even disappointment - from him or from anybody else on camera in the Jets' war room when Pittsburgh traded up to grab Jones. It looked far more like something he expected and, as he made no attempt to move up himself to avoid this expected scenario, as likely as not he wasn't targeting Jones in the first place.

Also lost in all this is Jones didn't exactly have a Wirfs-like rookie season himself. He's a LT-body who didn't play well enough to lock up the starting LT spot for 2024 enough to bypass other players/picks to man the position instead.

Douglas had all his 2023 offseason plans and moves burn to the ground, but it's not yet known how much of an omg miss this was. If McDonald turns into an above average edge rusher and Jones a meh starter an ok but forgettable tackle - which is the hope - then it works out in the end. Time will tell.

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On 1/24/2024 at 8:56 AM, Adoni Beast said:

Like QB, OT  is becoming a more boom or bust dart throw position to draft.

Techniques and assignments in NCAA are so much different than the NFL compared to previous decades.

I think teams are prioritizing WRs higher in the draft now as you have a much higher hit rate, and immediate impact. These OL, specifically Tackles are taking years to develop.

I think there will be a run on QBs (as usual) and WRs at the top of the draft and an OT like Alt or Fashanu have a decent chance of falling to us. You throw in a pass rusher like Latu and all of a sudden I can see 3-4 QBs + 3-4 WRs + Edge + 1 OT getting picked before us, leaving us with OT 2 available at 10.

I don't see it. 

Over the last 5, only 5 (in reverse order: London and Wilson, Chase Waddle and Smith), with 3 drafts featuring no top-10 WRs.

Over the 5 drafts before that, 7 WRs were taken in the top 10 (Corey Davis Mike Williams and John Ross, Cooper and Kevin White, Watkins and Evans) with 2 empty years.

If there's a trend at all, it's for fewer WRs going in the top 10, not more (the Davis/Williams/Ross draft probably has something to do with that), but mostly it comes down to the prospects. If there are super-elite type prospects (size-speed like Chase, Watkins, Evans, White, or historic speed plus production like Waddle, Smith) they can go top 10. And if it's a weak overall draft at the top, lesser guys will get pulled up (the Davis draft, the London draft). But that's not the same as teams prioritizing WR high in the draft. 

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Lots of undeservedhate on Joe at jetnation but I would imagine if we can trade down he def will. I think you will see another tippman type drafted in mid round, possibly wr in second.

But really how will make the smartest move fo the team again. And if he can recoup a second or more by trading down I bet he will 

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On 1/23/2024 at 6:24 PM, TuscanyTile2 said:

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nyj/draft.htm

image.thumb.png.292b5d71d684616f49ef513cadda7958.png
Has JD really had 4 drafts already?!  Or was that first draft in 2020 the one where he showed up after the picks were made?  I'm pretty sure he's had these 4 full draft classes.   Even though there's a good amount of talent there, I still think we're 2 more drafts away from rebuilding the offense.  And by that time, we'll need the single most important piece again - the QB.  I think 3 years is a reasonable amount of time to rebuild a team.  Certainly after 4 years that should be plenty of time.  Meanwhile, JD is now going on year 5 and our offense is still a disaster.

 

I just realized that JD and Saleh may be smarter than we give them credit for. Pitch a 6 year rebuild to Woody as a ploy to get a contract extension? Sounds like something Woody would accept

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On 1/24/2024 at 12:24 AM, TuscanyTile2 said:

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nyj/draft.htm

image.thumb.png.292b5d71d684616f49ef513cadda7958.png
Has JD really had 4 drafts already?!  Or was that first draft in 2020 the one where he showed up after the picks were made?  I'm pretty sure he's had these 4 full draft classes.   Even though there's a good amount of talent there, I still think we're 2 more drafts away from rebuilding the offense.  And by that time, we'll need the single most important piece again - the QB.  I think 3 years is a reasonable amount of time to rebuild a team.  Certainly after 4 years that should be plenty of time.  Meanwhile, JD is now going on year 5 and our offense is still a disaster.

 

JD was in charge for the 2020 draft, he was hired in June of 2019. The usual debate is around whether he was accountable for the 2019 season given that FA and draft happened before he was hired.

So yeah, heading towards his 5th draft. 😵

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What I'm struggling with at the moment is - all I heard in Dec / early Jan was that there are two "can't miss" LT prospects that will be gone before 10 and everyone else is a big question mark. Now in every mock draft I see people questioning both Alt and Fashanu, I see one or other being available at 10, I even see cases where we pass on one or the other for Fuaga. Not once have I seen both being gone before we pick.

Now I know that mock drafts vary wildly and nothing is all that settled at this stage - but are we truly looking at two "sure thing" 10-year starters in these guys? Or is it just over-reaction to us drafting lower so of course we miss out on the best players ever and have to settle for some 'scrub' at 10? If the difference between the top 2 / 3 guys and the next tier of guys is not that huge then I can certainly see us looking to trade down.

 

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On 1/23/2024 at 4:20 PM, Beerfish said:

Put the pipe dream away they are not getting a QB early in he draft, no chance.  They will likely pick a developmental guy later.

Zach is gone put away your fears.

No one is trading for Zach.  31 GMs know he’s horrible.  Enjoy watching him start games for the jets next season.

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16 hours ago, jamesr said:

What I'm struggling with at the moment is - all I heard in Dec / early Jan was that there are two "can't miss" LT prospects that will be gone before 10 and everyone else is a big question mark. Now in every mock draft I see people questioning both Alt and Fashanu, I see one or other being available at 10, I even see cases where we pass on one or the other for Fuaga. Not once have I seen both being gone before we pick.

Now I know that mock drafts vary wildly and nothing is all that settled at this stage - but are we truly looking at two "sure thing" 10-year starters in these guys? Or is it just over-reaction to us drafting lower so of course we miss out on the best players ever and have to settle for some 'scrub' at 10? If the difference between the top 2 / 3 guys and the next tier of guys is not that huge then I can certainly see us looking to trade down.

 

QBs get overhyped every year so I’m pretty sure one of the top 2 LTs drops to 10

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