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What are the reasons to not draft Watson?


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9 hours ago, King P said:

Drew Brees

Here's his scouting report. You can't tell me this doesn't sound exactly like Watson

 
 

Which is WHY BREES WENT in the 2nd ROUND and NOT in the first nor at #6 OVERALL . . . . "exactly like Watson" should.

Chargers were SMART by trading down, despite NEEDING a QB with Vick available as the concuss #1, by selecting a HOF RB (LT) and THEN selecting their QB in the 2nd - Brees. And it STILL took 4-5 years for Brees to acclimate to the game and WHY SD chose Rivers 4 years later and let Brees walk. 

Qbs like Watson will need 3-5 years JUST to be competent Starting Pro QBs, so the VALUE is NOT THERE by taking them at #6. Like Geno, not worth the 2nd contract and STILL developing. 

 

Dalvin Cook at #6 is my Shocking surprise pick. Jets need a guy who can make a TD  every time he touches the ball, Cook is that guy in the pros. 

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3 minutes ago, NYJCAP2 said:

Trade the pick for Garoppolo


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facepalm-bear-2.png

 

If we're lucky I'm sure they will throw Drew Bledsoe in as well. Sure, WHY NOT trade your up-and-coming reserve QB to a division rival while resolving that rival's BIGGEST deficiency since 1970?

After Pats go 19-0 (seems that they're aiming for it) you have a BETTER chance of trading for Brady than Garrapolo

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9 hours ago, Gangrene said:

Matt Stopsky lays it out very well if you have time to read this ...

 

If you haven't noticed, the OP seems to have NO reading comprehension skills. Thus an 8+ page thread on WHY Watson is NOT a 1st round QB  physical TALENT worthy of a Top 10 pick. 

The US education system and smartphone-derived ADD is a wonderful combination for this society's future. :rolleyes:

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5 minutes ago, Gas2No99 said:

If you haven't noticed, the OP seems to have NO reading comprehension skills. Thus an 8+ page thread on WHY Watson is NOT a 1st round QB  physical TALENT worthy of a Top 10 pick. 

The US education system and smartphone-derived ADD is a wonderful combination for this society's future. :rolleyes:

Glad to see Ritalin is working for you. 

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3 hours ago, Dcat said:

not even close.  agree to disagree.

p.s.  Hey, you're a Gator... what do you think of Jarrad Davis?  I was doing a mock for the Jets and all the top Edge rushers were grabbed before the Jets and for my board, the BPA was ILB Davis.  Do you think he's worthy of a 2nd round pick?  Potential Harris replacement for 2018?  Reports on him say he is a good signal caller for the defense, a hard hitter...  Watched a little video of him and liked what I saw.  

They're absolutely identical.  Agreed.

Davis is a stud.  Yes, he's absolutely worth a 2nd round pick.  He reminds me a lot of Harris to be honest but probably a little more skilled in coverage.  He was the heart and soul of a lot of very good defensive teams.  Great kid too.  I love Jarrad Davis. 

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3 hours ago, Pointdexter said:

I find it really odd that everyone just completely ignored my post showing Mayock's assessment of Watson' arm strength, at his pro day, as "outstanding on all three levels."

I repeat Mike Mayock stated less than a month ago his arm strength is "outstanding on all three levels."

 

3 hours ago, Pointdexter said:

This has to count for something. It's not like the guy has a noodle arm.

Yeah but some bloggers with a radar gun said...

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3 hours ago, The Crusher said:

Personally I would like to know more about this radar gun velocity test. Was it really done randomly without the QBs knowing is was being done? The obvious assumption would be they did it during the same drill the QBs threw for. 

 

It's a blog site called "Our Lads Scouting Service" lmfao.  This isnt a combine event.  It's literally bloggers showing up with a radar gun, sitting in the stands and clocking QB's unaware they're being clocked while worrying about completing passes focusing on their footwork and mechanics. 

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facepalm-bear-2.png
 
If we're lucky I'm sure they will throw Drew Bledsoe in as well. Sure, WHY NOT trade your up-and-coming reserve QB to a division rival while resolving that rival's BIGGEST deficiency since 1970?
After Pats go 19-0 (seems that they're aiming for it) you have a BETTER chance of trading for Brady than Garrapolo


Clueless, I'll take Garrapolo vs the whole field...


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Just from watching the combine events, Watsons arm looked no worse than any of the other QBs to me and he was more accurate than most of them.  Mahommes lauded for the big arm was throwing behind players on simple outs.

I do not endorse taking Watson at 6 but to be honest arm strength is not an issue for me.  He does not look like he has a total noodle arm.

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1 hour ago, Smashmouth said:

and I'm telling you of all of Favres throws in actual game action very few of them went 60 + mph its a worthless stupid stat when all you need to do is watch the kid throw and see if he can make all the throws. The speed at which you process information gains you a hell of a lot more time than trying to rip your arm out of the socket throwing that fast.

If I can process information just one second faster than you and you can throw 60 MPH and I can throw 50 guess whos ball gets their first .

Okay, you're entitled to your opinion.

For what it's worth, the analysis shows that no QB who has been below 55mph in the velocity testing at the combine has gone on to a successful NFL career. Period. Not most have been bad or it's a mixed bag. It's a cut and dry threshold for a successful career previously. Not that you're golden above it, but below it simply is not enough ball velocity to be a long-term successful NFL QB no matter how fast you're processing.

What that means to me is maybe some guys who are closer to 55mph are faster processors to make up for the gap in ball velocity, but historically there hasn't been someone who processes fast enough below that velocity to be successful.

I do not think that the 49mph means you don't draft Watson - but I also think it needs to be taken into account. Do you need to answer why is his arm better than the 49mph it tested as (i.e. was that figure a fluke) or if it's legitimate what is it about Watson that will make him successful with physical tools that no player previously has been successful with?

Especially since he's way off the threshold. He came in at 49 and the highest was 60 (Mahomes).

Also this isn't based on game throws. Everyone does this at the combine under equal conditions. 

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6 minutes ago, JiF said:

It's a blog site called "Our Lads Scouting Service" lmfao.  This isnt a combine event.  It's literally bloggers showing up with a radar gun, sitting in the stands and clocking QB's unaware they're being clocked while worrying about completing passes focusing on their footwork and mechanics. 

Like is this the first year they did it? So it's not standardized?  Wow, people talking about it like it was a combine event. Good heavens 

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6 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

Like is this the first year they did it? So it's not standardized?  Wow, people talking about it like it was a combine event. Good heavens 

Been recorded since 2008. It's not a perfect tool. Watson's stands out so much as an outlier there could be an error or a simple explanation.

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3 hours ago, Jet_Engine1 said:

But by that logic, if Watson was taking a little bit off of his fastball for the sake of control, then probably so was every other guy that has throwing at the combine. So Trubisquit maybe took a bit off, in a drill where the point is to complete passes, and he was zipping the ball out at 55mph. 

 

But you're right. Arbitrary measurements can be stupid. So go rewatch Watson's season, and if you can't tell that the ball just DOES NOT come out of his hand like an NFL QB, then you can't be helped.

 

And if you think velocity is a pointless measurement for QBs, you must not have been a fan from 2002-07. Or have an understanding of what it is that Quarterbacks do. 

 

Or is it that you don't trust radar guns? Do you think they aren't real, and are really just a way for Cops to give people tickets? 

I'm not taking anything "Our Lad Scouting Services" says seriously for a split second.

Watson has beautiful mechanics.  Smooth behind the ear tight motion with a great spiral.  He throws literally the exact same as Marcus Mariota.  Same mechanics, through and through.  Watch them side by side.  It's identical.  I'd say Watson probably has more angles he can throw the ball at though.  Maybe Mariota better placement on the long ball. 

I dont think velocity is pointless.  It's definitely for real.  The issue, I dont trust some bloggers with a radar gun comparing it to an incredibly small sample size as some type of red flag on a prospect.  I watched Watson make every throw in the book vs. NFL loaded D's.  Arm strength is far from a problem. 

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3 hours ago, Jet_Engine1 said:

The fact that you think DeShaun Watson has "plenty of velocity" and is a great passer shows that while you may watch College Football, you have no real idea what you're watching. 

 

The fact that you don't understand why success in College Football is not a predictor of success in the NFL (as I referenced earlier, including with Jamarcus Russell) shows that you do not understand the differences in the games. 

 

Watson is a good kid. He's a "gamer". He was a winner at the collegiate level. But he is going to have a hard time finding success at the next level. His game is nothing like Mariotta. In the NFL, the comparison is Tyrod Taylor. Maybe. And you don't draft Tyrod Taylor in the first round.

 

This was fun.  Have a nice day.

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2 hours ago, Pointdexter said:

And I'll ask again, since it continues to be ignored...

Does it matter at all that one of the most respected draft analysts, Mike Mayock, who just saw the kid live and in person not more than 1 month ago, stated his professional assessment is that "Watson's arm strength is OUTSTANDING on all three levels."

He didn't say "adequate" or "plus" or "better than avg" or "decent".  He said outstanding.

Why does this not seem to count to those stating he has a weak arm???

Maybe doesn't fit their chosen narrative?

"If you're asking me whether the Jets at No. 6 should take a quarterback, I would emphatically tell you no," Mayock said. "I don't have a top 10 grade on any quarterback in this draft. I would not be in that conversation." 

http://www.nj.com/jets/index.ssf/2017/02/nfl_draft_2017_why_jets_should_not_pick_qb_says_mi.html

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18 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

Like is this the first year they did it? So it's not standardized?  Wow, people talking about it like it was a combine event. Good heavens 

Basically its me, you and the Ape decided to go to combine with a radar gun and then start a blog about it. 

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1 hour ago, Gas2No99 said:

Which is WHY BREES WENT in the 2nd ROUND and NOT in the first nor at #6 OVERALL . . . . "exactly like Watson" should.

Chargers were SMART by trading down, despite NEEDING a QB with Vick available as the concuss #1, by selecting a HOF RB (LT) and THEN selecting their QB in the 2nd - Brees. And it STILL took 4-5 years for Brees to acclimate to the game and WHY SD chose Rivers 4 years later and let Brees walk. 

Qbs like Watson will need 3-5 years JUST to be competent Starting Pro QBs, so the VALUE is NOT THERE by taking them at #6. Like Geno, not worth the 2nd contract and STILL developing. 

 

Dalvin Cook at #6 is my Shocking surprise pick. Jets need a guy who can make a TD  every time he touches the ball, Cook is that guy in the pros. 

Not disagreeing with you. However it was a different time period back then. The NFL wasn't as QB happy as it is now. If Drew Brees was coming outta college now, he's be a mid to late 1st rounder

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I would imagine it would be pretty simple for an interested team to have him in and test him. Renting a radar gun is too much expense for an NFL team?  

FWIW, Mike Glennon threw 49 mph too and plenty of people wanted to throw money at him. The version I saw had Watson at 45 mph and Mahomes at 55 mph.Quarterback Ball Velocity at NFL Combine 2008-2017  Those guns are not all the same.  That is why some pitchers all of a sudden are throwing 100+mph when they get on TV.  Some are pretty optimistic.  If 55 mph is the cut-off, plenty of guys are in big trouble!

Also, LOL at the Pats being more likely to trade Garoppolo than Brady and them not being willing to give him to the Jets for #6 overall because they don't want to cure our great weakness.  Kid will be walking shortly.  I bet they'd love #6 overall.  Imagine how pissed you'd be when they picked Trubisky!

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2 minutes ago, gEYno said:

"If you're asking me whether the Jets at No. 6 should take a quarterback, I would emphatically tell you no," Mayock said. "I don't have a top 10 grade on any quarterback in this draft. I would not be in that conversation." 

http://www.nj.com/jets/index.ssf/2017/02/nfl_draft_2017_why_jets_should_not_pick_qb_says_mi.html

That's fine.  He's not alone and Mayock has been plenty wrong before but I think the point pointdexter is making is about the velocity thingy that everyone is all up in arms about. Mayock who is highly critical of Watson says he has "outstanding" arm strength.  So what gives?  

 

 

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16 hours ago, flgreen said:

49

Arm velocity is not the end all for a QB, but like the 40, it can take a player out of serious consideration.

Watson's a nice kid with some leg talent, probably going to be a leader and hag around the league for 10 years.  He's never going to be a franchise QB with an arm velocity of 49.

How do you know that exactly? Wasnt the QB velocity test introduced to the Combine in 2008? We have no idea what the velocity of any of the QB's (including many of the current franchise QB's) before 2008 are. Mike Glennon has been in the league since 2013. I've never heard anyone say that he has lackluster/underwhelming arm talent and cannot push the ball down the field. You know what Mike Glennon's velocity score was? 49. The stat is ridiculous. A guy like David Fales, QB from San Jose State (a guy that I liked in college) had noticeable limitations with arm strength. You can see it all throughout his college tape when it came to the deep ball. He went to the combine...and scored a 53. David Fales arm isnt stronger than Mike Glennon's and the tape can easily prove that, and yet the Combine would say that David Fales velocity is higher than Mike Glennon's. Also, you have guys who can throw a football through a concrete wall, does that mean that they're "going to be franchise QB's"? Go look at Cody Kessler back at USC. You can see his limitation with the deep ball and yet he had the same velocity score as Russel Wilson, a guy who may not throw bullets downfield given that he has more of a high arching throw when going deep, but on rollouts throwing on the run he throws lasers when throwing back shoulder passes...im talking Aaron Rodgers-esque. Cody Kessler's arm isnt as strong as Russel Wilsons. Furthermore, imo this velocity thing is highly overrated. I'd rather have a guy who's accurate and can make great decisions with the football rather than a guy who has rare arm talent but is basically Ryan Mallet when it comes to accuracy and decision making. It doesnt matter what the velocity is when you're off target or dont make good decisions with the football. My favorite QB in this draft is Nathan Peterman. All you hear about is his arm strength, or lack thereof, but show me another QB in this draft who can diagnose a defense quicker than him and find the correct target, or a guy who has as good a feel of the pocket while keeping his eyes down the field. Nathan Peterman is also a guy who has some issues when he has to "gun" the ball in, but that's not the situation on every single play. More often than not its about diagnosing what the defense is doing to you and getting the ball to the right target. Velocity of a football tells you nothing important in that regard. And funny enough, Peterman also has a higher velocity score than Mike Glennon. You wont see it on tape though. 

A guy coming out of Virginia Tech who converted from Tight End to QB was Logan Thomas. He threw some of the absolute prettiest deep passes you will ever see in college. I also liked what I saw from him and hoped that the Jets drafted him with a late round pick that draft year. Thomas was drafted by the Cards years ago. He put up a score of 60 on the velocity test, tied for the highest ever record, and yet years later he's not a franchise QB given that the Cards had to practically beg Carson Palmer not to retire and are possibly in the running for a QB LIKE a deshaun Watson if he happens to fall. A guy who's not on this list but probably had the strongest arm ever is Da'Raidah's JaMarcus Russel. The stories we heard about him is just f'ing ridiculous. Remember Kyle Boller from the Ravens? This dude threw a pass 80 yards all flight from his freaking knees. 

Guess what? Kyle Boller...not a franchise QB. 

Here's the list of guys who took that test. How many of those guys who threw with high velocity are franchise QB's? It will also accompany some names of players who didnt throw. 

http://www.pass2win.com/ball-velocity-exposing-the-power-qb.html

Name, College, NFL Team – Ball Velocity in MPH
Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech, Bills (TE) - 60
Bryan Bennet, SE Louisiana, free agent - 60
Pat Mahomes, Texas Tech, TBD - 60

Davis Webb, California, TBD - 59
Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State, Texans– 59
Colin Kaepernick, Nevada, free agent- 59
Kirk Cousins, Michigan State, Redskins - 59
Zac Dysert, Miami (OH), Cardinals- 59
Tyler Bray, Tennessee, Chiefs - 59
Stephen Morris, Miami, Colts - 59
Paxton Lynch, Memphis, Broncos - 59

Jared Goff, California, Rams - 58
Ryan Mallett, Arkansas, Ravens- 58
Austin Davis, Southern Mississippi, free agent- 58

Carson Wentz, North Dakota State, Eagles - 57
Nick Foles, Arizona, Eagles - 57
Mark Sanchez, USC, Bears- 57
Josh Freeman, Kansas State, Free Agent - 57
Chase Daniels, Missouri, Saints - 57
Chandler Harnish, Northern Illinois, free agent- 57
Tom Savage, Pittsburgh, Texans - 57
Sean Mannion, Oregon State, Rams - 57
Brandon Bridge, South Alabama, free agent - 57

DeShon Kizer, Notre Dame, TBD - 56
Andy Dalton, TCU, Bengals - 56
Cam Newton, Auburn, Panthers - 56
Colt McCoy, Texas, Redskins- 56 (recorded in a private workout with a radar gun & computer chip in the football)
Ryan Nassib, Syracuse, free agent– 56
Curtis Painter, Purdue, free agent- 56
Brad Sorensen, Southern Utah, free agent - 56
Patrick Devlin, Delaware, free agent- 56
Josh Woodrum, Liberty, Bills - 56
Blake Bortles, Central Florida, Jaguars - 56
Jimmy Garoppolo, Eastern Illinois, Patriots - 56
Marcus Mariota, Oregon, Titans - 56
Jacoby Brissett, North Carolina State, Patriots - 56
Jeff Mathews, Cornell, free agent - 56
Keith Wenning, Ball State, Giants - 56
Joel Stave, Wisconsin, Chiefs - 56
Christian Hackenberg, Penn State, Jets - 56
Anthony Boone, Duke, free agent - 56

Mitchell Trubisky, North Carolina, TBD - 55
Jerod Evans, Virginia Tech, TBD - 55
Trevor Knight, Texan A&M, TBD - 55
Jameis Winston, Florida State, Buccaneers - 55
Joe Flacco, Delaware, Ravens - 55
Geno Smith, West Virginia, Giants- 55
CJ Beathard, Iowa, TBD - 55
Trevon Boykin, TCU, Seahawks - 55
Russell Wilson, Wisconsin, Seahawks - 55
Brandon Allen, Arkansas, Jaguars - 55
Cody Kessler, USC, Browns - 55
Cody Fajardo, Nevada, free agent - 55
Jordan Lynch, Northern Illinois, free agent - 55
Casey Keenum, Houston, Vikings - 55
Tyler Wilson, Arkansas, free agent - 55
Scott Tolzien, Wisconsin, Colts - 55

Dak Prescott, Mississippi State, Cowboys - 54
Tajh Boyd, Clemson, free agent - 54
Bryn Renner, North Carolina, free agent - 54
Nate Sudfeld, Indiana, Redskins - 54
Jake Locker, Washington, free agent- 54
EJ Manuel, Florida State, Raiders - 54
Matthew Scott, Arizona, free agent - 54

Nathan Peterman, Pittsburgh, TBD - 53
Brad Kaaya, Miami, TBD - 53
David Fales, San Jose State, Dolphins - 53
AJ McCarron, Alabama, Bengals - 53
Brett Hundley, UCLA, Packers - 53
Kevin Hogan, Stanford, Browns - 53
Brandon Doughty, Western Kentucky, Dolphins - 53
Vernon Adams, Oregon, free agent - 53
Mitch Leidner, Minnesota, TBD - 53
Bryce Petty, Baylor, Jets - 53
Dustin Vaughan, West Texas A&M, Ravens - 53
Landry Jones, Oklahoma, Steelers - 53
Chad Henne, Michigan, Jaguars - 53
Stephen McGee, Texas A & M - 53

Shane Carden, Eastern Carolina, free agent, 52
Jeff Driskel, Louisiana Tech, Bengals - 52
Seth Russell, Baylor, TBD - 52
Graham Harrell, Texas Tech, free agent - 52
Pat White, West Virginia, free agent - 52
Kellen Moore, Boise State, Cowboys - 52
TJ Yates, North Carolina, free agent - 52
Michael Kafka, Northwestern, free agent - 52
Zac Robinson, Oklahoma St., free agent - 52
Ryan Lindley, San Diego State, free agent - 52

Josh Dobbs, Tennessee, TBD -51
Jerry Lovelocke, Praire View A&M, free agent - 51
Christian Ponder, Florida St, free agent - 51
Colby Cameron, Louisiana Tech, free agent - 51

Matt Flynn, LSU, free agent -- 50
John Skelton, Fordham, free agent - 50
Ricky Stanzi, Iowa, free agent - 50
Tyrod Taylor, Va Tech, Bills- 50
Connor Cook, Michigan, Raiders - 50
Connor Shaw, South Carolina, Bears - 50
Nick Marshall, Auburn, Bengals - 50

Deshaun Watson, Clemson, TBD - 49
Michael Glennon, North Carolina State, Bears - 49
Josh Johnson, San Diego, Giants - 49
Sefo Liufau, Colorado, TBD - 46
Cooper Rush, Central Michigan, TBD - 46
Blake Sims, Alabama, free agent - 42 

DID NOT THROW:
Matt Ryan, Boston College, Falcons - Did not throw
Robert Griffin III, Baylor, Browns- Did not throw
Andrew Luck, Stanford, Colts - Did not throw
Sam Bradford, Oklahoma, Vikings- Did not throw
Matt Stafford, Georgia, Lions - Did not throw
Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M, Dolphins - Did not throw
Brock Osweiler, Arizona State, Browns- Did not throw
Tim Tebow, Florida, Free Agent - Did not throw
Sean Renfree, Duke, Buccaneers – Did not throw
Matt Barkley, Southern Ca, 49ers - Did not throw
Greg McElroy, Alabama, free agent - Did not throw
Blaine Gabbert, Missouri, free agent- Did not throw
Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville, Vikings – Did not throw
Derek Carr, Fresno State, Raiders – Did not throw
Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M, free agent – Did not throw
Zach Mettenberger, LSU, Steelers – Did not throw
Aaron Murray, Georgia, Rams – Did not throw
Garrett Grayson, Colorado State, Saints - Did not throw
Connor Halliday, Washington State, free agent - Did not throw
Cardale Jones, Ohio State, Bills - Did not throw

 

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6 minutes ago, JiF said:

That's fine.  He's not alone and Mayock has been plenty wrong before but I think the point pointdexter is making is about the velocity thingy that everyone is all up in arms about. Mayock who is highly critical of Watson says he has "outstanding" arm strength.  So what gives?  

 

 

I don't know... But put me in the camp of idiots willing to ride it out and go for a QB next year.  I cannot think of a time when the Jets actually have had a top pick and a concensus QB was there for them.  Today, it's not a guarantee, but I guess I'm willing to hang on to the fact that there's actually a realistic path to that right now.  Just give me a guy at 6 who can contribute for now.  We have so few of those.

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Just now, JiF said:

This time last year, Suck for Watson was a popular phrase.

At one point, Christian Hackenberg was the consensus #1 overall pick.

Who knows WTF is going to happen next year.  Some of those kids might not even come out and if they do, what if they're MPH is 49???!!!!!!! ;-)

 

great points.  i hope they trade back, get extra picks and do not address qb until later rounds.  then mccags says after the draft that they think they have their franchise qb in hack.  that would be a bold move.

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