Brian Costello: "There has been heavy buzz here at the NFL league meetings that the Jets love Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield, and he is whom they want with the third pick in next month’s draft"

[RutgersJetFan]

57 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

Remember when Hackenberg fixed his accuracy

To be fair, he hasn't gotten to throw under the right route running and weather conditions yet.

[Scoop24]

Lmaoo y’all love comparing QBs to hackenberg . I would take the top 6 QBs in this draft over hackenberg . Hackenberg was a bad prospect 

[SMC]

3 hours ago, RutgersJetFan said:

Probably because working on accuracy isn't a thing.

Stafford improved his completion percentage in college from 57% to 62% career in the NFL

Ryan went from 59% in college to 64% career in the NFL

Pennington went from 63% to 66%

Rodgers went from 63% to 65%

Brady went from 61% to 63%

On the flipside, Luck went from 67% to 59%, Mariota went from 66% to 61% career NFL.

So QBs can improve accuracy from college to the pros and, get worse as well.

[RutgersJetFan]

7 minutes ago, SMC said:

Stafford improved his completion percentage in college from 57% to 62% career in the NFL

Ryan went from 59% in college to 64% career in the NFL

Pennington went from 63% to 66%

Rodgers went from 63% to 65%

Brady went from 61% to 63%

On the flipside, Luck went from 67% to 59%, Mariota went from 66% to 61% career NFL.

So QBs can improve accuracy from college to the pros and, get worse as well.

You literally just rep'd a post that said completion percentage isn't a good way to gage accuracy, then cited completion percentages 6 times over.

[Thai Jet]

11 hours ago, Villain The Foe said:

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Hey guys, lets draft that kid from USC Sam Darnold given that he's coming from a team that's produced this. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_USC_Trojans_starting_quarterbacks

Or we can draft Josh Rosen given that he's coming from a team that produced Troy Aikman...back in 1987. 

https://www.ranker.com/list/best-ucla-bruins-quarterbacks/ranker-college-football

#WorksBothWays

 

Draft the guy you believe can make your team better. That's what the Jets should be doing. 

There's that soap box again. GOD I can't wait for this draft to be over.

[Bruce Harper]

38 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

His dad is an orthopaedic surgeon. And Rosen missed a total of 2 games because he was in concussion protocol. This is really being overblown.

Fair enough.  Thanks for the correction/clarification.  Maybe overblown but still one more factor to consider.

[MaxAF]

3 hours ago, JiF said:

Reading this last page...there really are 3 Qb's that looking overcome some seriously tough odds...Allen, Mayfield and Jackson.

Watch Mason Rudolph be the best of the bunch.

It really wouldn’t surprise me. No one really knows the performance level these guys will reach in the NFL. It’s just a big guessing game. 

[Bruce Harper]

22 minutes ago, Villain The Foe said:

Based on what exactly? I hope its not because of screens, which he's thrown just 23% of the time. What is he doing with the other 77% of his throws? 

I would assume hes throwing to slants, digs, posts, comebacks, 9 routes, seam routes and crossing routes. Is it because he found the open guy? Well, thats what he's supposed to do. Its not like he's in a one read system. The kid is scanning the field and is finding receivers who did their job. Going through progressions and finding the open receiver is what pro qb's do

I saw one statistical analysis that found that he was the most accurate deep passer in his class.  Sorry, too lazy to dig up the link.

[RutgersJetFan]

1 hour ago, Larz said:

Completion percentage is not a good way to judge accuracy 

It's just not 

You have to watch the player to judge accuracy 

Completion percentage usually is a reflection of how much a QB takes check downs vs hero balls more than anything. 

See Pennington, Chad 

How about not being able to hit a net that's right in front of you?

[SMC]

8 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

You literally just rep'd a post that said completion percentage isn't a good way to gage accuracy, then cited completion percentages 6 times over.

Hedging my bets.

[Villain The Foe]

8 minutes ago, Thai Jet said:

There's that soap box again. GOD I can't wait for this draft to be over.

Saying that it works both ways? I think that i have a valid point given that i havent seen you talk to the person i directed that quote to about the soap box over there.

But, soap boxes are perfectly made for forums. Its the place where folks patiently wait to be correct or those who they dislike to be incorrect so that they can proceed to act like that actually knew something....

Standing on their soapbox. 

I got my box like everyone has theres. Im not letting anyone disrespect my soapbox and pretend like folks dont have soap boxes. I said what i said and im sticking to it. Ill respect this more when i see you out there being more general with this soap box talk and not just talking to me. 

[56mehl56]

1 hour ago, dbatesman said:

Remember when Hackenberg fixed his accuracy

Remember when dbatesman was funny - No , me either. 

[RutgersJetFan]

3 minutes ago, SMC said:

Hedging my bets.

listen here you little sh*t...

[Villain The Foe]

7 minutes ago, Bruce Harper said:

I saw one statistical analysis that found that he was the most accurate deep passer in his class.  Sorry, too lazy to dig up the link.

https://www.google.de/amp/s/www.ajc.com/sports/college/pro-football-focus-baker-mayfield-most-accurate-deep-passer-among-draft-eligible-qbs/4qQ4LMarD2D232lzGmZoGO/amp.html

 

[Dcat]

57 minutes ago, Bruce Harper said:

The tie breaker for me between Rosen and Mayfield is Rosen's history of concussions and that he seems to get hit a lot.  Mayfield doesn't seem to miss a lot of games.  And a neurosurgeon is going to be very attuned to CTE or other neurological damage caused by multiple concussions.

I can see his dad setting him up for monthly MRI's to his brain (or whatever test is used to determine CTE).   Still, he is the most pro ready and the expectation will be that any team that drafts him invest heavily in putting the best possible OL protection around him.  In the Jets case, that will take a while.  But I still want him and would draft him in a nanosecond if he's there at 3.

[56mehl56]

32 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

To be fair, he hasn't gotten to throw under the right route running and weather conditions yet.

Go ahead continue to dismiss the things that are relevant but keep hanging your hat on a number that proves almost nothing about accuracy. 

[RutgersJetFan]

Just now, 56mehl56 said:

Go ahead continue to dismiss the things that are relevant but keep hanging your hat on a number that proves almost nothing about accuracy. 

What in the name of Steven Seagal's filmography are you babbling about?

[Dcat]

17 minutes ago, Bruce Harper said:

I saw one statistical analysis that found that he was the most accurate deep passer in his class.  Sorry, too lazy to dig up the link.

I read that one too, FWIW.  I don't remember where.

[Villain The Foe]

1 minute ago, Dcat said:

I read that one too, FWIW.  I don't remember where.

https://www.google.de/amp/s/www.ajc.com/sports/college/pro-football-focus-baker-mayfield-most-accurate-deep-passer-among-draft-eligible-qbs/4qQ4LMarD2D232lzGmZoGO/amp.html

Here you go. 

[Dcat]

2 hours ago, Larz said:

Completion percentage is not a good way to judge accuracy 

It's just not 

You have to watch the player to judge accuracy 

Completion percentage usually is a reflection of how much a QB takes check downs vs hero balls more than anything. 

See Pennington, Chad 

I forget who posted this, but it stunned me: 

1st round QBs over the last 20 years who never had a single year of college (any year) of hitting 60% completion percentage:

Ryan Leaf
Alkili Smith
Michael Vick
Joey Harrington
Kyle Boller
J.P. Losman
Jake Locker
Josh Allen

That's some real ugly, bad, scary QB company. 

It's just a correlation, but Geez...    I'll pass  He has a very high bust potential.  More than Mayfield, IMO and the others.  

[ylekram]

24 minutes ago, Villain The Foe said:

https://www.google.de/amp/s/www.ajc.com/sports/college/pro-football-focus-baker-mayfield-most-accurate-deep-passer-among-draft-eligible-qbs/4qQ4LMarD2D232lzGmZoGO/amp.html

Here you go. 

seen him throw a 60 yarder on a rope vs texas. on the money

[56mehl56]

9 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

What in the name of Steven Seagal's filmography are you babbling about?

So you think your Above the Law but when your Under Siege and Marked for Death you won't be laughing .

[Larz]

23 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

How about not being able to hit a net that's right in front of you?

Cherry picking 

[RutgersJetFan]

Just now, 56mehl56 said:

So you think your Above the Law but when your Under Siege and Marked for Death you won't be laughing .

Oh my god. Marry me.

[Larz]

7 minutes ago, Dcat said:

I forget who posted this, but it stunned me: 

1st round QBs over the last 20 years who never had a single year of college (any year) of hitting 60% completion percentage:

Ryan Leaf
Alkili Smith
Michael Vick
Joey Harrington
Kyle Boller
J.P. Losman
Jake Locker
Josh Allen

That's some real ugly, bad, scary QB company. 

It's just a correlation, but Geez...    I'll pass  He has a very high bust potential.  More than Mayfield, IMO and the others.  

There are no shortcuts to scouting. You have to put the time in.

You are also leaving out the many great QBs with low college completion %

[Dcat]

4 minutes ago, Larz said:

There are no shortcuts to scouting. You have to put the time in.

You are also leaving out the many great QBs with low college completion %

but these are the ones that NEVER hit 60% ever in college (not in any single year) and were drafted in round 1.  Sorry, but it should not be summarily dismissed as you are doing.  That group sucks ass and Allen is right with them.  Will he be the outlier? Perhaps.  But I wouldn't risk the #3 pick on it.  Never. 

[Larz]

5 minutes ago, Dcat said:

but these are the ones that NEVER hit 60% ever in college (not in any single year) and were drafted in round 1.  Sorry, but it should not be summarily dismissed as you are doing.  That group sucks ass and Allen is right with them.  Will he be the outlier? Perhaps.  But I wouldn't risk the #3 pick on it.  Never. 

Stats without context are meaningless. To get context you have to watch the player. 

 

[Sonny Werblin]

43 minutes ago, Bruce Harper said:

Fair enough.  Thanks for the correction/clarification.  Maybe overblown but still one more factor to consider.

Agreed it is a factor. Is it me or is there more fake news on the 2018 NFL draft than the 2016 presidential election?

[nycdan]

So we have pretty much developed into a Mayfield vs. Allen debate.  Funny thing is, I get the sense most Allen fans would take Rosen over him but most Mayfield fans want Mayfield over everyone else.  Which feels a little cultish but maybe it's just my perception and not the reality.

But what I do know is that both sides seem perfectly willing to diminish the warts and accentuate the positives.  It comes down to accuracy and past performance over size and tools potential.  An age old debate. 

Both sides have some outliers to point to.  Brees and Wilson on one hand, Favre on the other.  

And the best part...we have 29 more days to listen to this debate that will go absolutely nowhere new in that time.

 

[Dcat]

2 minutes ago, Larz said:

Stats without context are meaningless. To get context you have to watch the player. 

 

way to ignore the data.  Never mind.  You want Mac to take that ridiculous risk?  OK. Not me.  

[Larz]

10 minutes ago, Dcat said:

way to ignore the data.  Never mind.  You want Mac to take that ridiculous risk?  OK. Not me.  

See this is what I have been posting about. 

I will support whoever they take. 

I am just pointing out that there is no short cut to scouting , you have to do the work. 

I am intentionally not picking a guy because odds are whoever I pick will be somebody else's QB 

Please don't assume anything

[Villain The Foe]

12 hours ago, ylekram said:

seen him throw a 60 yarder on a rope vs texas. on the money

The prettiest part of the play was the fake pump to the right side of the field. He got the safety that was over the top to bite on the fake towards the right sideline in order get Jeff Badet to run right over the top for the score. Some folk wouldn't consider that an NFL caliber throw...nevermind the fact that he baited the safety by showing his back to the defense before turning back around and throwing a 60 yarder all-air right over the head of the safety that just bit on the fake. Baker got #4 on the defense in "no man's land". He had no idea where to defend because he got caught on the fake. 

Dude is the future. 

[Dcat]

37 minutes ago, Larz said:

See this is what I have been posting about. 

I will support whoever they take. 

I am just pointing out that there is no short cut to scouting , you have to do the work. 

I am intentionally not picking a guy because odds are whoever I pick will be somebody else's QB 

Please don't assume anything

If they draft Allen, I will root for him feverishly.  That's not the issue. The issue to me is his outrageous bust potential.  Of course there's no shortcut to scouting.  Mac scouted Hack.  What shortcuts did he take with that fiasco?  I don't trust his QB scouting ability one iota.  But the correlation is there and it's terrifying.  No way should he take that risk, IMO.

[Villain The Foe]

1 hour ago, Dcat said:

I forget who posted this, but it stunned me: 

1st round QBs over the last 20 years who never had a single year of college (any year) of hitting 60% completion percentage:

Ryan Leaf
Alkili Smith
Michael Vick
Joey Harrington
Kyle Boller
J.P. Losman
Jake Locker
Josh Allen

That's some real ugly, bad, scary QB company. 

It's just a correlation, but Geez...    I'll pass  He has a very high bust potential.  More than Mayfield, IMO and the others.  

I also think that all of those names atleast played at D1 schools. We're talking today about a kid coming from Wyoming with mediocre performances. And this is not dissing on the Mountain West Conference. Thats the same conference as Derek Carr...but look at what Carr did his last 2 years when in that conference. He threw for 5000 yards and 50 TD in a sesson. Borderline ridiculous stats he put up. And whats crazier us that Carr was picked in the 2nd round. 

The problem for me isnt Allen, but the hype over his arm. Meanwhile real production is dismissed in that conference (Carr)...probably because he was in an Air Raid offense and his brother was David. 

Allen could be good, but nothing is indicating that at all...not in terms of where folks are projecting him. Its absurd. 

[Larz]

8 minutes ago, Dcat said:

If they draft Allen, I will root for him feverishly.  That's not the issue. The issue to me is his outrageous bust potential.  Of course there's no shortcut to scouting.  Mac scouted Hack.  What shortcuts did he take with that fiasco?  I don't trust his QB scouting ability one iota.  But the correlation is there and it's terrifying.  No way should he take that risk, IMO.

Good for you