Brian Costello: "There has been heavy buzz here at the NFL league meetings that the Jets love Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield, and he is whom they want with the third pick in next month’s draft"

[freestater]

I like moxie. :)

[Untouchable]

Just now, RutgersJetFan said:

What's to dispute? If you have already inserted accuracy into the "He just need time to work on X" narrative, you have strayed way, way too far down the rabbit hole.

I’m seriously supposed to believe that accuracy can’t be improved upon?

Are humans just born with or without the ability to accurately chuck a hunk of pigskin?

Who honestly believes that horsesh*t?

[RutgersJetFan]

2 minutes ago, 56mehl56 said:

Accuracy as a number by itself means jacksh*t unless you factor in all of the surrounding circumstances.

These will sound like excuses but :

1) quality of the teams Oline

2) route running by a teams Wr's

3) weather - how many games did Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen play in environments like Allen played in for most of his games.

4) situational splits , how many throws were made when the team was trailing by 10 or more points

I know the 60% number is thrown around here like gospel by many , but to me that number doesn't paint the whole picture.

Are there concerns about Allen's accuracy - sure, but fix some of the issues above and how much does that % go up ??

Weather and route running. Hot, hard hitting stuff here.

[Greenseed4]

CAN WE ALL COLLECTIVELY...

STOP TALKING IN ABSOLUTES, LIKE WE KNOW MORE THAN THE PEOPLE (in the know) WHO DONT EVEN KNOW. 

 

“____ is going to draft ___”

”____won’t take ___at __”

 

shut the **** UP

[MDL_JET]

10 minutes ago, JetBlue said:

Success in college is not the same as success in the NFL.  Of all the undersized QBs drafted over the last 10 years, only Drew Brees and Russell Wilson have been successful.  NFL players are bigger, faster, more athletic and stronger than college players therefore it is much harder for quarterbacks of his stature to succeed.  Not saying it is impossible but I prefer the quarterback that is of prototypical size which the other 3 quarterbacks all have. 

Has there been a ton of undersize QBs in the last 10 years that were considered a 1st round pick and failed? 

[RutgersJetFan]

4 minutes ago, freestater said:

I like moxie.

Love. Not like.

[freestater]

Just now, RutgersJetFan said:

Love. Not like.

Love, I reserve for pot. 

[56mehl56]

1 minute ago, RutgersJetFan said:

Weather and route running. Hot, hard hitting stuff here.

I think weather is a much overlooked factor in evaluating college QB's . Is it easier to throw the ball is sunny 70 degree California nights or in 20 degree windy blustery Wyoming days. Oh and btw what 's the weather like at Metlife in December/January ??

[RutgersJetFan]

Just now, 56mehl56 said:

I think weather is a much overlooked factor in evaluating college QB's . Is it easier to throw the ball is sunny 70 degree California nights or in 20 degree windy blustery Wyoming days. Oh and btw what 's the weather like at Metlife in December/January ??

And more importantly, what kind of moon was he throwing under during night games? Have any of these mathletes that speak in absolutes thought to chart that? My guess is no.

[JetBlue]

4 minutes ago, MDL_JET said:

Has there been a ton of undersize QBs in the last 10 years that were considered a 1st round pick and failed? 

Manziel comes to mind but I would need to do a little research.  Chances are they went later in the draft probably because of concerns about their size.  Mayfield does seem to be the outlier and did have a truly great college career but so have a lot of quarterbacks who busted in the NFL.  I am more concerned about how a player projects on the NEXT level then how they did in a gimmicky offense in college.   I guess I'm just prejudiced against "small" quarterbacks; what can I tell you lol.   The odds are definitely against them making it in the NFL.  

[JetBlue]

18 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

it's so rare to see qbs in the nfl shorter than 6'1", let alone good qbs that height.  and yet mayfield could still crack the top 5, good for him.  but it won't be on the jets, they didn't trade up for him.  

I hope you are right... 

[56mehl56]

11 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

And more importantly, what kind of moon was he throwing under during night games? Have any of these mathletes that speak in absolutes thought to chart that? My guess is no.

There's a fair share here on these forums - ask them.

[RutgersJetFan]

2 minutes ago, 56mehl56 said:

There's a fair share here on these forums - ask them.

I bet none of them could take a full power shot from me.

[MDL_JET]

16 minutes ago, JetBlue said:

Manziel comes to mind but I would need to do a little research.  Chances are they went later in the draft probably because of concerns about their size.  Mayfield does seem to be the outlier and did have a truly great college career but so have a lot of quarterbacks who busted in the NFL.  I am more concerned about how a player projects on the NEXT level then how they did in a gimmicky offense in college.   I guess I'm just prejudiced against "small" quarterbacks; what can I tell you lol.   The odds are definitely against them making it in the NFL.  

 Well that's my point. I was trying to see who was short and as talented as Mayfield, who was considered a top pick and failed.  I'd rather ask is there any part of his game that doesn't translate because of his height.

[TuscanyTile2]

The Jets’ best chance at Darnold would be for the Browns to take Allen and the Giants to trade the pick to Denver, who end up taking Mayfield (thinking he’ll be gone when we pick).   That’s my pet theory of the day as to why the Baker news leaked.  Then again it’s pretty early for something like that.  But probably the Giants are playing Buffalo and Denver against each other (assuming they’re looking to trade down). 

[jetstream23]

7 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

 

Why?


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

 

Because there are 3 better players. 

 

[jetstream23]

4 hours ago, Skeptable said:

In the end you were not guaranteed Mayfield at 6.... Now its a guarantee or the possibility of Rosen. Jets sit at #6 get leapfrogged by Bills or Miami and this whole fanbase would be going insane... why could we have traded up... Now that they have to guarantee one of their 2 guys and people are complaining??? Idiotic.

All I’m saying is that Mayfield at #6 would have been a very good pick. But at #3 I think it wasn’t worth the trade up for him. Again, just my opinion. 

[Bruce Harper]

1 hour ago, JetBlue said:

Agreed. This Mayfield hype needs to stop.  If Rosen, Darnold or Allen is available, there is no way I see them picking Mayfield over any of them. 

Allen stinks.  I would be okay with the other two. But Allen hasn't shown much yet, IMHO.

[Bruce Harper]

20 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

All I’m saying is that Mayfield at #6 would have been a very good pick. But at #3 I think it wasn’t worth the trade up for him. Again, just my opinion. 

And he'd be a great pick in the second round, but that isn't going to happen either.  He won't be there at 6, IMHO.

[Villain The Foe]

10 minutes ago, JetBlue said:

Manziel comes to mind but I would need to do a little research.  Chances are they went later in the draft probably because of concerns about their size.  Mayfield does seem to be the outlier and did have a truly great college career but so have a lot of quarterbacks who busted in the NFL.  I am more concerned about how a player projects on the NEXT level then how they did in a gimmicky offense in college.   I guess I'm just prejudiced against "small" quarterbacks; what can I tell you lol.   The odds are definitely against them making it in the NFL.  

I think what you said here is fair from the perspective of actually having an personal opinion. There are facts, then there's how you feel about those facts. However, one thing that you said here that im not really sure about and that's the highlighted part. The reason why I say that is this. 

There's a difference between scheme and gimmick. Air Raid is a scheme, not a gimmick. Its used like any other offensive scheme which is to find a weakness or disadvantage and exploit it. That's no different than the Option. There was a time where Option offenses werent a big thing in the pros. Then came the wildcat which was a gimmick....but through that came the Run-Pass-Option which was also considered gimmicky. Today however, more and more offenses are implementing college schemes on the next level and are having success...with the RPO being the craze of the league because of how it puts pressure on the defense. 

A college style offense was used to win the superbowl? Yup. Nick Foles was 4 of 5 for 172 yards and 2 TD's in the superbowl on plays that were set up on RPO's. Nick Foles took it to the GOAT with a college offense....and it worked. This is a College concept that was constructed in 2009, utilized by Auburn in 2013 on their run to the National Championship, by 2016 it was as if every High School and half of every College implemented the RPO in some fashion and by 2018 a team called the Philadelphia Eagles won the Superbowl using it. The best thing that can be said about the Wildcat is that the Dolphins really did surprise the Pats when they unveiled it....but that's about it. 

This was a college offense that isnt predicated on pro-style concepts but the pros have adopted it because they see the benefits. This emergence of adopting college concepts in the pros is catching on because this isnt like 30 years ago when you can draft a QB in the 1st round and have him sit and learn a new pro-style system for 3 years. We're in an age where you draft a kid in April and you expect him to be on the field by September and you're looking to win games immediately. If an Air Raid System can spread out a defense, provide more and wider throwing lanes, get the ball into the hands of players that can score then why hold this pro-style on some pedestal? If im looking at a player that ran this system so efficiently, showed his ability to feel the pocket, who is moble who is deadly accurate passing on the run, would I try and force a square piece into a round hole? No. 

Maybe it's not college that's lagging behind, but the pros. Where to the pros get all of their talent? College. Where is all of the concepts and strategies coming from? College? Whats being adopted in the pros? College concepts. Giving these new QB's something that they're familiar with is working. Nick Foles came from an Air Raid system...everytime he's played in a concept that he's comfortable with the guy literally dismantles the league. Why continue to force a guy who can play like this into a "pro style"? Maybe that's the problem. 

This is a new era. You dont have to be a 6'5 pocket passer anymore. You can be a 6'1 pocket passer, passer on the run, rusher and option QB with the ability to set audibles at the line in a hurry up offense and limit the personnel of the defense and chip away at players with lack of discipline and gap responsibility. 

 

It's not the same league brother. Just looking at the new generation of passers are showing that. Cam's rookie year they implemented options and bootlegs that allowed him to read one side of the field to make transitioning a bit easier. A few years later he was the MVP of the league and was in the Superbowl running read and triple options...another College concept. 

 

[Larz]

Completion percentage is not a good way to judge accuracy 

It's just not 

You have to watch the player to judge accuracy 

Completion percentage usually is a reflection of how much a QB takes check downs vs hero balls more than anything. 

See Pennington, Chad 

[afjetsfan]

When I watch Baker during interviews and highlight clips, I can't help but root for the guy. The only issue is how his skillset translates to the NFL.  But believers in him have a point.  There have been some very successful QBs that were around Baker's height (Montana at only 6'2 comes to mind).  Only time will tell, but I won't be disappointed if we take him.  

[dbatesman]

1 hour ago, RutgersJetFan said:

What's to dispute? If you have already inserted accuracy into the "He just need time to work on X" narrative, you have strayed way, way too far down the rabbit hole.

Remember when Hackenberg fixed his accuracy

[nyjunc]

32 minutes ago, Larz said:

Completion percentage is not a good way to judge accuracy 

It's just not 

You have to watch the player to judge accuracy 

Completion percentage usually is a reflection of how much a QB takes check downs vs hero balls more than anything. 

See Pennington, Chad 

I agree w/ you.  it's comical when people use comp % to discuss accuracy BUT Chad while checking down a lot was still a very accurate QB. 

[JetFreak89]

I love the anti-Mayfield posts due to size concerns compared to "NFL History". The NFL isn't static, it makes no sense to compare Mayfield to ALL the other QB's drafted throughout history. If this were the 1980's I would be thoroughly against Mayfield so high but it isn't, the game has changed rapidly, even over the last 5-10 years. 

In terms of how high he is being picked, has anyone thought that perhaps team scouts have adjusted their thinking in response to the change in the game, plus the recent successes of Wilson and Brees? Yes, there haven't been many sub 6'2 QBs that thrived in the NFL, but the success stories seem to be getting more frequent. 

At the end of the day, what I will find most intriguing is to see if Mac gives up his predetermined thinking re: QB's (must fit certain size profiles) or does he learn from the Hack failure and just go in the complete opposite direction. 

[Greensleeves]

2 minutes ago, JetFreak89 said:

I love the anti-Mayfield posts due to size concerns compared to "NFL History". The NFL isn't static, it makes no sense to compare Mayfield to ALL the other QB's drafted throughout history. If this were the 1980's I would be thoroughly against Mayfield so high but it isn't, the game has changed rapidly, even over the last 5-10 years. 

In terms of how high he is being picked, has anyone thought that perhaps team scouts have adjusted their thinking in response to the change in the game, plus the recent successes of Wilson and Brees? Yes, there haven't been many sub 6'2 QBs that thrived in the NFL, but the success stories seem to be getting more frequent. 

At the end of the day, what I will find most intriguing is to see if Mac gives up his predetermined thinking re: QB's (must fit certain size profiles) or does he learn from the Hack failure and just go in the complete opposite direction. 

There is no Hack in this draft. The fact is, Mayfield may be the hardest QB to project whether he will be successful or not because he made so few NFL throws and never played under center. There is a great analytical video posted on another Jets message board that compares completion percentage to accuracy and how they are not the same. Many of Baker's throws were wide open and completed and not accurately thrown. Allen was more accurate in his ball placement, but he just whiffed on more balls because he was trying to get them down the field with bad footwork and not check down. So it was mostly a footwork issue with Allen. His accuracy was better than Mayfields since his ball placement was consistently better, even on his NFL throws. He has gotten much better already with his footwork. I wouldn't be shocked to see him hoist the Lombardi Trophy one day. He has the talent and is a quick learner.

[Bruce Harper]

2 hours ago, Untouchable said:

Yeah, it is.

Footwork, touch and ball placement have a helluva lot to do with accuracy. And everyone out there from Mike Mayock to Daniel Jermemiah to Mel Kiper etc will tell you that Allen has improved tremendously in those areas. It showed at the combine. It showed at the senior bowl. It showed at his pro-day.

Now, whether he can continue to harness those things and apply them to the field at the next level is anyone’s guess.

But don’t sit here telling me that Allen’s accuracy issues are so detrimental while virtually ignoring every flaw pertaining to Mayfield.

You're kidding, right, that we should care that he has told a bunch of talking heads that he has gotten more accurate?  Or that he threw a bunch of good passes in shorts?  Why the hell did he wait until his college career was over before doing this?

And Mayfield's "every flaw," as far as I can tell, is that he's under 6'2".

[Greenseed4]

I like that Mayfield is a walk-on turned Heisman winner. 

If anyone can represent and lead the “winless” “worst roster in football” I’d like it to be the guy who’s been told he’s not good enough.  

[JetFaninMI]

21 hours ago, Vader said:

Jets are insane to pass on Rosen. He’s the closest thing to Peyton Manning from style / technical standpoint you are going to find. The dudes father is a freaking surgeon. He’s got the arm, mechanics and brain.

Talent usually skips a Generation. Gimme the guy who has had to prove himself EVERYWHERE he has played by WALKING ON. Thats the guy with the drive and determination to succeed anywhere. Mayfield at 3.

[Bruce Harper]

1 minute ago, JetFaninMI said:

Talent usually skips a Generation. Gimme the guy who has had to prove himself EVERYWHERE he has played by WALKING ON. Thats the guy with the drive and determination to succeed anywhere. Mayfield at 3.

The tie breaker for me between Rosen and Mayfield is Rosen's history of concussions and that he seems to get hit a lot.  Mayfield doesn't seem to miss a lot of games.  And a neurosurgeon is going to be very attuned to CTE or other neurological damage caused by multiple concussions.

[Sonny Werblin]

4 minutes ago, Greenseed4 said:

I like that Mayfield is a walk-on turned Heisman winner. 

If anyone can represent and lead the “winless” “worst roster in football” I’d like it to be the guy who’s been told he’s not good enough.  

He walked on to two D1 football teams and beat out the scholarship starting QB. Two!! Why would anyone bet against this kid?

[Flushing Roots]

9 minutes ago, Bruce Harper said:

You're kidding, right, that we should care that he has told a bunch of talking heads that he has gotten more accurate?  Or that he threw a bunch of good passes in shorts?  Why the hell did he wait until his college career was over before doing this?

And Mayfield's "every flaw," as far as I can tell, is that he's under 6'2".

That was Wayne Chrebet's flaw too.

[Sonny Werblin]

1 minute ago, Bruce Harper said:

The tie breaker for me between Rosen and Mayfield is Rosen's history of concussions and that he seems to get hit a lot.  Mayfield doesn't seem to miss a lot of games.  And a neurosurgeon is going to be very attuned to CTE or other neurological damage caused by multiple concussions.

His dad is an orthopaedic surgeon. And Rosen missed a total of 2 games because he was in concussion protocol. This is really being overblown.

[Joe W. Namath]

Mayfield is the guy.  Cant wait till that Thursday night when we take him.

[Villain The Foe]

35 minutes ago, Greensleeves said:

There is no Hack in this draft. The fact is, Mayfield may be the hardest QB to project whether he will be successful or not because he made so few NFL throws

Based on what exactly? I hope its not because of screens, which he's thrown just 23% of the time. What is he doing with the other 77% of his throws? 

I would assume hes throwing to slants, digs, posts, comebacks, 9 routes, seam routes and crossing routes. Is it because he found the open guy? Well, thats what he's supposed to do. Its not like he's in a one read system. The kid is scanning the field and is finding receivers who did their job. Going through progressions and finding the open receiver is what pro qb's do