You're running the Jets

[Lith]

If it is me, I need more than just a second to agree to move down from 3 to 7.  I would  not do it at the combine.  Not enough value to make that deal so far in advance.  The 3rd pick is too valuable an asset to sell for below market two months before the draft.  On draft night, if I am on the clock, and Bosa and Allen are both gone, I am probably taking that deal if it is the best offer I have.  At 7, maybe I get Jonah Williams, or DK Metcalf.  Should be able to get an impact offensive player at 7.

As far as trade back from 7, I would be willing to do that, but only if I get good value.  I would not selll the 7th pick at a discount.  If nobody is willing to pay market value, I am just taking the best offensive player available.  And hopefully adding another offensive starter with the 2 from Jax.

[More Cowbell]

First, I want to know who they intend to draft after the trade. If they tell me a QB, that means they desperately  want this deal to happen and I would tell them next years #1 to move to 7.  The talent in this draft takes a big drop outside of the top 3. You want a prime time spot, pay a prime time price. There is also the chance Jonah is gone by 7 which would drive people here nuts so I want a huge reward for doing this. 

[More Cowbell]

48 minutes ago, Villain The Foe said:

Absolutely. I would then trade out of that 7th spot again into the early teens, and then trade out of that into the 20th position picking up another 2nd and 3rd rounder. 

With the 20th pick I'll pick up the top Center, 2nd round I'll pick up the top G/T and in the 3rd pick up another G/T with a WR. 

Invest in Darnold early and often during his rookie contract. 

Do you really think there will be so many people willing to trade up? This is a weak draft

[JustInFudge]

Hell 2 the no.

[CanadaSteve]

I'd tell David Caldwell to fetch me a sandwich while he is out looking for a better offer, sit back and wait for either to phone to ring or for Caldwell to walk into the office with the best offer he's got....and my sandwich.

[Jet Nut]

10 hours ago, New York Mick said:

We need to protect our QB before we worry about going after other teams. 

We were a lot better at protecting the QB, who wasn't sacked much, than we were at pressuring the QB.

[Philc1]

No draft Allen or Ferrell

[ZachEY]

11 hours ago, derp said:

Value at the top of the draft doesn't really seem to match your needs.

At the combine Jacksonville approaches you and says they'd like to move up to in the draft if the value is right but they're not totally committed to the idea and it doesn't need to be up to 3. Offer is their pick at 7 and their second rounder at 38. Value of 3 = 2200, 7+38 = 2020. They won't give anything else and you haven't received a better offer. They need to know before free agency starts. Do you take it?

Edit:

For those who say no before FA. Draft goes Bosa, Allen. Jags call. Same offer.

The chart is meaningless, every draft is different and value is set by the market, not by someone who made an Excel spreadsheet.

I don't take the proposed deal prior to Free Agency, but I would take the deal on draft day if that's my best offer.  We need players, and at 3, there's no one player that's going to significantly help this team more than the player I can get at 7 and the player I can get in the 2nd round.

[ZachEY]

11 hours ago, Warfish said:

Yes, grudgingly, if no other offers exist.

Draft the Best-in-draft O-Lineman at a "more appropriate" #7, and get an additional O-player (RB, WR, Another O-Line) for Darnold in the 2nd.

 Pass Rush obsessives will have to wait till another draft to pick the next D-Rob or Ghost or Richardson or Meh Williams.

Agreed, except I probably swap the best available weapinzzzzz at 7 and the Oline in the 2nd.  But, I suppose that's also determined by who's on the board there.

[bitonti]

10 hours ago, nico002 said:

You need to understand that 2018 was an all time great draft. The third pick last year is 2x more valuable than the third pick this year.

which is why this whole discussion is stupid 

cause no one is trading up to 3 this year

if I ran the Jets the first thing I'd do is spend to the cap. If you want to win you need to be committed to winning. talk is cheap. 

[Philc1]

14 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

We were a lot better at protecting the QB, who wasn't sacked much, than we were at pressuring the QB.

Yeah and we only have $130 million in cap room to sign free agents to upgrade the OL but hey let’s trade down!

[bitonti]

3 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

Agreed, except I probably swap the best available weapinzzzzz at 7 and the Oline in the 2nd.  But, I suppose that's also determined by who's on the board there.

Jonah Williams is a reach at 3, he's probably still a reach at 7. Daniel Jeremiah's latest top 50 has him as a guard, around 16 overall. 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001012558/article/daniel-jeremiahs-top-50-prospects-for-2019-nfl-draft-10

maybe someone rises (another possibility) but still there's not an obvious top 10 lineman this year right now 

 

[Philc1]

2 minutes ago, bitonti said:

which is why this whole discussion is stupid 

cause no one is trading up to 3 this year

if I ran the Jets the first thing I'd do is spend to the cap. If you want to win you need to be committed to winning. talk is cheap. 

Disagree I think the hype machine and the media hype up Haskins so much either the cardinals draft him and trade Rosen or someone trades up 

[nycdan]

11 hours ago, derp said:

Value at the top of the draft doesn't really seem to match your needs.

At the combine Jacksonville approaches you and says they'd like to move up to in the draft if the value is right but they're not totally committed to the idea and it doesn't need to be up to 3. Offer is their pick at 7 and their second rounder at 38. Value of 3 = 2200, 7+38 = 2020. They won't give anything else and you haven't received a better offer. They need to know before free agency starts. Do you take it?

Edit:

For those who say no before FA. Draft goes Bosa, Allen. Jags call. Same offer.

The hole in this scenario is that if JAX traded up above the Giants in the 4 or 5 slots that early, the Giants would have weeks to decide to move up above them (probably to 3).  JAX would be doing us a huge favor by moving up to 4 in March.  I'd smile and say, "good on ya, mate!".  

[Philc1]

Just now, bitonti said:

Jonah Williams is a reach at 3, he's probably still a reach at 7. Daniel Jeremiah's latest top 50 has him as a guard, around 16 overall. 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001012558/article/daniel-jeremiahs-top-50-prospects-for-2019-nfl-draft-10

maybe someone rises (another possibility) but still there's not an obvious top 10 lineman this year right now 

 

I don’t think Williams as good as Cam Robinson who was a second round pick (though I thought he was worthy of top 10 year he came out)

[ZachEY]

6 minutes ago, bitonti said:

which is why this whole discussion is stupid 

cause no one is trading up to 3 this year

if I ran the Jets the first thing I'd do is spend to the cap. If you want to win you need to be committed to winning. talk is cheap. 

You really don't think a QB will rise up the boards this year?

If Jets are on the clock, and the draft does go Bosa, Allen, you've got the Raiders who don't seem in love with Carr, the Giants, the Jags, the Broncos, and maybe the Bucs all within striking distance.  You've also got the Redskins who'd have to pay 2 1s, at least, and that's attractive.  Someone's going to want to have 1st choice of QBs.

Someone will also, IMO, be willing to pay more than the thread offers, but I'd still take the deal because with the current state of the team, and the look of this draft, two is unquestionably better than one right now.

[bitonti]

Just now, TeddEY said:

You really don't think a QB will rise up the boards this year?

If Jets are on the clock, and the draft does go Bosa, Allen, you've got the Raiders who don't seem in love with Carr, the Giants, the Jags, the Broncos, and maybe the Bucs all within striking distance.  Someone's going to want to have 1st choice of QBs.

Someone will also, IMO, be willing to pay more than the thread offers, but I'd still take the deal because with the current state of the team, and the look of this draft, two is unquestionably better than one right now.

first question QBs will rise but probably not to 3. Bortles and Trubisky went 3 in QB weak years it's not clear any of these prospects are even Bortles level. Last year everyone took QBs knowing this year would suck. Herbert didn't declare and it's not magically getting better just cause we want it to. So to answer your question maybe 10% chance of a riser to 3.  

The Raiders have alot of money invested in Derek Carr. If they cut him it would be like 15 mil dead money. They also have picks all over the round if they want a Lock mid round or different developmental guy that's an option, or they can keep tanking until Vegas and take someone good next year like Fromm. I doubt they go QB. In fact, their worse need is the pass rusher they traded away in Mack. 

The thing about quality over quanity I remember the Orlando Pace year. If it goes like this, you stick at 3, take the most elite player left if that's a DT so be it. trade downs sound awesome until you take James Farrior 

[bitonti]

8 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

Disagree I think the hype machine and the media hype up Haskins so much either the cardinals draft him and trade Rosen or someone trades up 

The Arizona Cardinals fanbase (what there is of it) is far more comfortable with a Rosen than a Haskins.

their luxury box holders drive down Barry Goldwater Blvd in Scottsdale every morning 

[ZachEY]

Just now, bitonti said:

first question QBs will rise but probably not to 3. Bortles and Trubisky went 3 in QB weak years it's not clear any of these prospects are even Bortles level. Last year everyone took QBs knowing this year would suck. Herbert didn't declare and it's not magically getting better just cause we want it to. So to answer your question maybe 10% chance of a riser to 3.  

 The Raiders have alot of money invested in Derek Carr. If they cut him it would be like 15 mil dead money. They also have picks all over the round if they want a Lock mid round or different developmental guy that's an option, or they can keep tanking until Vegas and take someone good next year like Fromm. I doubt they go QB. In fact, their worse need is the pass rusher they traded away in Mack. 

 The thing about quality over quanity I remember the Orlando Pace year. If it goes like this, you stick at 3, take the most elite player left if that's a DT so be it. trade downs sound awesome until you take James Farrior 

My feeling on the raiders is that if they believed in Carr, they wouldn't have traded Mack and Cooper.  The Rams correlate would be keeping Goff and trading Gurley and Donald.

We'll see - I looked at this, and the last time a QB was taken outside of top 10 was 2013.  So, expectation is one will go highly.

And, while Haskins may not be worth the 3, that's only part of the equation in my view.  The question is, do you want Haskins, or do you want the next best QB.  There's enough teams that are going to want Haskins, I'd think, that one will likely pull the trigger.  The weak QB draft, in a sense, could play into our hands.  Sparsity of resources makes the only one around look more attractive than perhaps he is.

[bitonti]

3 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

My feeling on the raiders is that if they believed in Carr, they wouldn't have traded Mack and Cooper.  The Rams correlate would be keeping Goff and trading Gurley and Donald.

We'll see - I looked at this, and the last time a QB was taken outside of top 10 was 2013.  So, expectation is one will go highly.

And, while Haskins may not be worth the 3, that's only part of the equation in my view.  The question is, do you want Haskins, or do you want the next best QB.  There's enough teams that are going to want Haskins, I'd think, that one will likely pull the trigger.  The weak QB draft, in a sense, could play into our hands.  Sparsity of resources makes the only one around look more attractive than perhaps he is.

They can't trade Carr, too much money invested. Maybe one more year they can make that move but there's no point in doing it this year. it would be like 10% of the cap dead money.

that outcome Haskins getting hot and up to 3 is possible but not likely. I'm still giving it 10%.  the truly QB needy teams blew their load last year. Haskins isn't that good. He would have to run like Mike Vick or Deion, out the back of the stadium  

[Philc1]

6 minutes ago, bitonti said:

The Arizona Cardinals fanbase (what there is of it) is far more comfortable with a Rosen than a Haskins.

their luxury box holders drive down Barry Goldwater Blvd in Scottsdale every morning 

Rosen didn’t look good last year.  Granted he’s just a rookie and Goff and Trubisky looked just as bad as rookies

I heard Kingsbury likes Haskins and sees him as another Mahomes.  The cardinals can still get picks for Rosen a team like the giants would be interested in making him Eli’s successor

 

 

[Philc1]

1 minute ago, bitonti said:

They can't trade Carr, too much money invested. Maybe one more year they can make that move but there's no point in doing it this year. it would be like 10% of the cap dead money.

that outcome Haskins getting hot and up to 3 is possible but not likely. I'm still giving it 10%.  the truly QB needy teams blew their load last year. Haskins isn't that good. He would have to run like Mike Vick or Deion, out the back of the stadium  

The media has basically nothing to report post-Super Bowl until after the mlb season starts.  NCAA basketball is only relevant in March. NBA is boring.  No one cares about NHL

 

ESPN, Fox Sports, NFLN have thousands of hours of programming to fill.  Haskins is going to have enough hype to move up to top 3

[#27TheDominator]

1 hour ago, Villain The Foe said:

Absolutely. I would then trade out of that 7th spot again into the early teens, and then trade out of that into the 20th position picking up another 2nd and 3rd rounder. 

With the 20th pick I'll pick up the top Center, 2nd round I'll pick up the top G/T and in the 3rd pick up another G/T with a WR. 

Invest in Darnold early and often during his rookie contract. 

Thank you, Mr. Parcells.  Now not only can we watch Peyton Manning stay in school, but we can watch HOF LTs Orlando Pace and Walter Jones get taken with our picks while you draft an ILB to play out of position until his rookie deal is up.  Sure seems worth it for Dan Neill, Terry Day, Leon Johnson and Ronnie Dixon.  Bodies!  Depth!  

14 minutes ago, bitonti said:

which is why this whole discussion is stupid 

cause no one is trading up to 3 this year

if I ran the Jets the first thing I'd do is spend to the cap. If you want to win you need to be committed to winning. talk is cheap. 

Most of our discussions are stupid.  

3 minutes ago, bitonti said:

first question QBs will rise but probably not to 3. Bortles and Trubisky went 3 in QB weak years it's not clear any of these prospects are even Bortles level. Last year everyone took QBs knowing this year would suck. Herbert didn't declare and it's not magically getting better just cause we want it to. So to answer your question maybe 10% chance of a riser to 3.  

The Raiders have alot of money invested in Derek Carr. If they cut him it would be like 15 mil dead money. They also have picks all over the round if they want a Lock mid round or different developmental guy that's an option, or they can keep tanking until Vegas and take someone good next year like Fromm. I doubt they go QB. In fact, their worse need is the pass rusher they traded away in Mack. 

The thing about quality over quanity I remember the Orlando Pace year. If it goes like this, you stick at 3, take the most elite player left if that's a DT so be it. trade downs sound awesome until you take James Farrior 

Just to nitpick, Trubisky went 2.  That "QB weak year" had 3 QBs in the playoffs this year, one with one of the greatest seasons of all time.  I think the success of Trubisky, Watson, Mahomes, Mayfield and Jackson is turning the old though that you need a pro-style QB (cough, Hackenberg, cough, cough) on its head andteams are going to be willing to jump on QBs that have the physical traits they are looking for, if they like them in the interview and feel the kid can do what they are going to ask.

[bitonti]

2 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Just to nitpick, Trubisky went 2.  That "QB weak year" had 3 QBs in the playoffs this year, one with one of the greatest seasons of all time.  I think the success of Trubisky, Watson, Mahomes, Mayfield and Jackson is turning the old though that you need a pro-style QB (cough, Hackenberg, cough, cough) on its head andteams are going to be willing to jump on QBs that have the physical traits they are looking for, if they like them in the interview and feel the kid can do what they are going to ask.

2

this post talks about everything but the actual QB prospects for this season

Lamar Jackson went 32 overall. 

it's possible someone thinks Haskins is worth 3, it's just not likely

we certainly can't expect a trade down. Most likely they stick high and take a defender 

[ZachEY]

5 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Most of our discussions are stupid.  

I like to think that on the reg, I bring the kind of high-brow, intellectually gratifying, thought provoking stuff that folks are logging in for.

[bitonti]

10 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

 The media has basically nothing to report post-Super Bowl until after the mlb season starts.  NCAA basketball is only relevant in March. NBA is boring.  No one cares about NHL

 

ESPN, Fox Sports, NFLN have thousands of hours of programming to fill.  Haskins is going to have enough hype to move up to top 3

2

this feels like hope. I'm not like a master of predicting the draft but hoping for the Jets to get lucky is historically the opposite of what happens.

[ZachEY]

Just now, bitonti said:

 this feels like hope. I'm not like a master of predicting the draft but hoping for the Jets to get lucky is historically the opposite of what happens.

I asked this in another post you missed or skipped over... Doesn't supply and demand play a role here?  Sure, in a vacuum, Haskins may not be worthy of three.  But, with one QB in a draft, and multiple teams in need, doesn't that change the metric?

[UntouchableCrew]

2 hours ago, bealeb319 said:

Fact that further down you go the less likely the guy you take is to be a successful player. More successful first rounders than second rounder more second rounders than thirds and so on

Sent from my LGUS991 using JetNation.com mobile app
 

Obviously higher picks are generally "better" prospects with a higher likelihood of becoming good players.

But the reality is the draft is a crapshoot and the more picks you have the likelier you are to hit. With the dearth of second round picks in recent years we simply need more shots.

[bitonti]

2 hours ago, Villain The Foe said:

Absolutely. I would then trade out of that 7th spot again into the early teens, and then trade out of that into the 20th position picking up another 2nd and 3rd rounder. 

With the 20th pick I'll pick up the top Center, 2nd round I'll pick up the top G/T and in the 3rd pick up another G/T with a WR. 

Invest in Darnold early and often during his rookie contract. 

Parcells traded down from 1.1 passed on Orlando Pace

He traded down again, passing on Walter Jones

He ended up with James Farrior and like 14 picks, the best of which was Jason Ferguson the 7th rounder NT 

The Jets need blue chip talent at every position but QB they should stay at 3 and take the blue chip 

we've seen how multiple trade downs end up 

unless we want to believe Mac knows more about the draft then Tuna? 

[bitonti]

1 minute ago, TeddEY said:

I asked this in another post you missed or skipped over... Doesn't supply and demand play a role here?  Sure, in a vacuum, Haskins may not be worthy of three.  But, with one QB in a draft, and multiple teams in need, doesn't that change the metric?

There's a limit to supply and demand. geno smith's agents thought he'd go 1.1 because of supply and demand. Brady Quinn's people too. mistakes happen but teams probably aren't going to use a blue chip pick on a red chip player. for haskins to go 3 he has to prove he's a blue chip and do something crazy like run a 4.3 legit or have a Jamarcus Russell style pro day. It's possible, i just don't see it with this particular player in this particular year

 

[Lith]

50 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

We were a lot better at protecting the QB, who wasn't sacked much, than we were at pressuring the QB.

Our QBs were sacked 37 times on the season; once every 15.2 drop backs.  We sacked the opposing QB 39 times on the season, once every 15.9 drop backs.  Not much difference in our abiiltiy to protect our QB this season and our ability to get to opposing QBs. At least based on the numbers.

I also think Darnold was very good sensing and avoidiing the rush to extend plays when protection broke down.  Pass blocking, imo, was not very good, and our run blocking was poor.  While they are our two biggest needs, I still think OL is priority 1 heading into next season.

[chirorob]

12 hours ago, derp said:

Value at the top of the draft doesn't really seem to match your needs.

At the combine Jacksonville approaches you and says they'd like to move up to in the draft if the value is right but they're not totally committed to the idea and it doesn't need to be up to 3. Offer is their pick at 7 and their second rounder at 38. Value of 3 = 2200, 7+38 = 2020. They won't give anything else and you haven't received a better offer. They need to know before free agency starts. Do you take it?

Edit:

For those who say no before FA. Draft goes Bosa, Allen. Jags call. Same offer.

That chart is not written in stone.   It was written for 1 specific draft, 25 years ago.

In a year where there isn't that stud stand out #1 QB, the picks are worth a bit less.   I would probably do it, Macc won't, because last year he gave away 3 #2s to go from 6 to 3, and this year he gets back 1 #2 to go from 3 to 7.

[Warfish]

1 hour ago, TeddEY said:

Agreed, except I probably swap the best available weapinzzzzz at 7 and the Oline in the 2nd.  But, I suppose that's also determined by who's on the board there.

Yep, I can live with that caveat.

It's early, so it's hard to slot guys, but I have to believe that a very very good O-lineman can be had at #7.  I believe winning, for us, starts on the O-line, so I'd even favor drafting two O-linemen if the draft falls that way.  Don't get me wrong, I want weapons (so Darnold has a fair chance, lols) but protecting Darnold is goal #1 of this offseason for me.  We ended 2018 with a poor O-line.  I want to start 2019 with a near-elite level O-line, however it can be done (FA, Draft, beating an existing guy till he stops sucking, etc).

Weapons can come after (or concurrently).  Starting with a RB we can really put some hard miles on, to take some burden off Darnold, and to make play-action a legit risk to open up the field for Darnold.

[jeremy2020]

Nothing matters until mac is fired

[#27TheDominator]

33 minutes ago, bitonti said:

this post talks about everything but the actual QB prospects for this season

Lamar Jackson went 32 overall. 

it's possible someone thinks Haskins is worth 3, it's just not likely

we certainly can't expect a trade down. Most likely they stick high and take a defender 

I don't know enough about the QB prospects this season.  In reality, nobody does yet.  I think that if Haskins didn't expect to go very high, he would have stayed in school. Lamar Jackson's relevance is not where he was drafted, but that the Ravens were winning with him. The idea that these spread offense or running QBs can't win early in their NFL careers is out the window. 

As to the OP there is no way on God's green earth that I take that deal at the combine.  Maybe on draft day if something weird is going on, but you don't take that little this far in advance.