Trading Up

[Warfish]

3 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Trading up wouldn't have even been a thought if we'd just managed to lose to the Steelers and Bills.  But that ship has sailed.  We either stay put or move down.  

Rooting for losses is a pathway to despair, because Coaches and Players NEVER think that way and NEVER try to lose or plan to lose, etc.  Even GM's, who may want a loss, never do anything to make it happen.  Rightfully so.  

You get what you get, move on from there IMO.

[ZachEY]

Just now, Warfish said:

Rooting for losses is a pathway to despair, because Coaches and Players NEVER think that way and NEVER try to lose or plan to lose, etc.  Even GM's, who may want a loss, never do anything to make it happen.  Rightfully so.  

 You get what you get, move on from there IMO.

Agree and Disagree.

When you have a young QB, most important is him performing well and getting experience.  When you don't have a QB, most important is getting one.

I'm all for the tank in the past.  If Darnold is our QB, then you win every single game you can.

[Warfish]

7 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

Agree and Disagree.

When you have a young QB, most important is him performing well and getting experience.  When you don't have a QB, most important is getting one.

I'm all for the tank in the past.  If Darnold is our QB, then you win every single game you can.

Fans can hope for losses, but it effects nothing but the fan.  NFL Teams do not tank once the games begin.  Witness the Dolphins this year, as an example.  

Taken to it's extreme, the root for losses in clearly silly.  One could reasonable use the same logic to say that any year that isn't a Super Bowl win would better have been spent losing 16 games for the #1 pick so they could, in the future, be a Super Bowl team.  

It's just silly.  What will be will be.  Thinking picks before the end of the season in a pointless exercise in futility and frustration and inevitable self-hatred of fans against their own team for not "losing right".

[Jetsfan80]

37 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Except for the fact that a LOT of people have blasted our picks and draft strategy the day they were made or even before.

Jets fans rip a pick on draft day:  "YOU CAN'T EVALUATE FOR 3 YEARS"

Rookie sucks his first year:  "YOU CAN'T EVALUATE FOR 3 YEARS.  HE'S HERE NOW STOP WHINING"

In 2nd year, player shows slight improvement but still sucks:  "HE'S MAKING PROGRESS SHUT UP"

After 3rd year, the mythical requisite period to judge a player, player is cut:  "THAT'S OLD NEWS HINDSIGHT IS 20/20 ALL GM'S MAKE BAD PICKS GET OVER IT"

[Jetsfan80]

32 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

Agree and Disagree.

When you have a young QB, most important is him performing well and getting experience.  When you don't have a QB, most important is getting one.

I'm all for the tank in the past.  If Darnold is our QB, then you win every single game you can.

 

You forgot door C :  Tanking the remainder of the season when you're out of contention so you can trade down to a QB-needy team for three first rounders.

[New York Mick]

Lol. If the Jets have a top 5 pick the fans want them to trade down and get more picks, if they have a mid pick the fans want them to trade up to get better talent. You ****ers are never happy 

11th is a very good spot to draft 

[JiF]

39 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

Here's the thing... This team doesn't need a super star right now.  It's the same reason we should have traded down last year, even if we didn't get perfect value.  This looks even more true when you consider what we actually got at 3.  Very few posters here wouldn't like that pick back, I'd imagine.  Regardless, this team needs a lot of good players.  So, we can't afford to give up two opportunities to get two good players for one opportunity to get one good/great player.

The Top OT or WR doesn't make the Jets a good team.  A very good OT and WR gets us closer to that.  This offseason is about adding a lot of talent, IMO.  Not going after the "best" RB available, because we saw how well that worked out.

Not that I disagree but hypothetically, would you rather have Julio Jones or whoever you think the best WR in the league is vs. a good to average WR and LT?  I think I could argue the value in a Julio is much greater than a Sterling Shepard paired with a Larmey Tunsil type. 

[Jetsfan80]

46 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Rooting for losses is a pathway to despair, because Coaches and Players NEVER think that way and NEVER try to lose or plan to lose, etc.  Even GM's, who may want a loss, never do anything to make it happen.  Rightfully so.  

You get what you get, move on from there IMO.

 

Yeah, I get that its always front office driven.  The clearest example was Miami's firesale early in the season.  It ultimately backfired because of Fitzmagic and some pretty good coaching from Flores.  

We should have traded Jamal and Robby at the deadline.  That would have helped.  

[Jetsfan80]

6 minutes ago, JiF said:

Not that I disagree but hypothetically, would you rather have Julio Jones or whoever you think the best WR in the league is vs. a good to average WR and LT?  I think I could argue the value in a Julio is much greater than a Sterling Shepard paired with a Larmey Tunsil type. 

It depends.  If your LT is one of the worst in the league, then getting an upgrade at LT is essential.  It's either a "you have one or you don't" situation.  Just look at how bad the OL was for us when Beachum went down, and how much better it got when he returned.  And Beachum isn't even all that good.  

Meanwhile, tons of elite WR1's have failed to have a lot of postseason/Super Bowl success over the years.  

You need an above average LT to go deep into the postseason.  WR can be more of a mixed bag.  

[bealeb319]

There is better value in staying put and reaching for the best center than there is in moving up for the second or third best tackle.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using JetNation.com mobile app

[Jetsfan80]

10 minutes ago, New York Mick said:

Lol. If the Jets have a top 5 pick the fans want them to trade down and get more picks, if they have a mid pick the fans want them to trade up to get better talent. You ****ers are never happy 

11th is a very good spot to draft 

It's much easier to trade down from a high spot, especially if QB's are involved for the teams looking to move up.  I'd be advocating trading down if we had a top 5 pick. 

I'm not going to advocate trading down from 11, unless a QB or other stud falls and another team falls in love.  Nor am I going to advocate moving up.  

[Jetsfan80]

4 minutes ago, bealeb319 said:

There is better value in staying put and reaching for the best center than there is in moving up for the second or third best tackle.

False.  The 2nd or 3rd best LT in the draft is far more valuable to an OL than the best Center in the draft.

If the OT projects to be more of a RT or a candidate to kick inside, I might agree in that scenario that the C is the better pick.  But a LT?  No chance.  Few things are more valuable to a team than a franchise LT, even if he's only a little above average.

[ZachEY]

38 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Fans can hope for losses, but it effects nothing but the fan.  NFL Teams do not tank once the games begin.  Witness the Dolphins this year, as an example.  

Taken to it's extreme, the root for losses in clearly silly.  One could reasonable use the same logic to say that any year that isn't a Super Bowl win would better have been spent losing 16 games for the #1 pick so they could, in the future, be a Super Bowl team.  

It's just silly.  What will be will be.  Thinking picks before the end of the season in a pointless exercise in futility and frustration and inevitable self-hatred of fans against their own team for not "losing right".

The whole exercise of rooting for a team is a fool's errand in the first place.  The teams going to do what it does regardless.  I rooted for losses because I wanted a QB.  Had we lost one more game, we'd have had the QB, and another 3 2nd round picks to support him.  That would have been good for the Jets.  The good news is my frustration tolerance, as is most of ours, with this team, is pretty astronomical.  We all should have walked away a long time ago, because literally nothing is good about them - you're right, they can't even lose right.

16 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

You forgot door C :  Tanking the remainder of the season when you're out of contention so you can trade down to a QB-needy team for three first rounders.

That's a lot of things to hope happens right.  Need the team to lose, need the right QB(s) to come out, need another team to want to come up, need another team to be in position to pick that QB so that the first team feels they need to do it, need the Jets to actually want to and be able to execute the trade.  It would be nice, but it's certainly not something I'm rooting for.

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

That's a lot of things to hope happens right.  Need the team to lose, need the right QB(s) to come out, need another team to want to come up, need another team to be in position to pick that QB so that the first team feels they need to do it, need the Jets to actually want to and be able to execute the trade.  It would be nice, but it's certainly not something I'm rooting for.

Its much easier to get that scenario to go right if you pick higher.  The higher the pick, the higher the likelihood you're picking in the QB range in any given year.  

We started the season 1-7.  Had we had a proper firesale it wouldn't have taken much to execute a proper tank.  

[Warfish]

4 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

The whole exercise of rooting for a team is a fool's errand in the first place.  The teams going to do what it does regardless.  I rooted for losses because I wanted a QB.  Had we lost one more game, we'd have had the QB, and another 3 2nd round picks to support him.  That would have been good for the Jets.  The good news is my frustration tolerance, as is most of ours, with this team, is pretty astronomical.  We all should have walked away a long time ago, because literally nothing is good about them - you're right, they can't even lose right.

Aye, it's all philosophy tbqh.  Do as you wish, of course, as we all should. 

I just don't personally see the point anymore in getting worked up over where we pick. 

It's the poor picks made, not the pick number, that has always doomed this franchise to failure and ineptitude.

Just look at QW as an example.  Guy was the #3 overall pick, doesn't get much higher than that.  he was generally a role playing non-entity in 2019, and we'll have to see if he ever becomes more.  It was being #3 vs. being #2 that hurt us, it's picking the wrong guy (potentially).

[ZachEY]

20 minutes ago, JiF said:

Not that I disagree but hypothetically, would you rather have Julio Jones or whoever you think the best WR in the league is vs. a good to average WR and LT?  I think I could argue the value in a Julio is much greater than a Sterling Shepard paired with a Larmey Tunsil type. 

Average case: Jones.

32nd ranked offense's case: 2 players.

[ZachEY]

Just now, Warfish said:

Aye, it's all philosophy tbqh.  Do as you wish, of course, as we all should. 

I just don't personally see the point anymore in getting worked up over where we pick. 

It's the poor picks made, not the pick number, that has always doomed this franchise to failure and ineptitude.

Just look at QW as an example.  Guy was the #3 overall pick, doesn't get much higher than that.  he was generally a role playing non-entity in 2019, and we'll have to see if he ever becomes more.  It was being #3 vs. being #2 that hurt us, it's picking the wrong guy (potentially).

I'm actually happy with where we pick.  Maybe, ideally, we pick at 8 or 9.  I think high up, as you point out with QW, is where you get suckered into the over hyped guys.  This team should not have been drafting QW, nor should it have been drafting Jamal.  I think we'll get a good player at a position of need at 11.  I'm not worried.

If we needed a QB though, I have no qualms about rooting for the tank.

[ZachEY]

2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Its much easier to get that scenario to go right if you pick higher.  The higher the pick, the higher the likelihood you're picking in the QB range in any given year.  

We started the season 1-7.  Had we had a proper firesale it wouldn't have taken much to execute a proper tank.  

Obviously.

I'm just not spending my Sunday rooting against Sam Darnold for some "I don't know why she swallowed the fly" type scenario.

[UntouchableCrew]

2 hours ago, SR24 said:

I lean this way as well and would 100% trade Jamal. My question is what do you do at 11 if Lamb,Jeudy and the 3 OTs are gone?  

Tee Higgins

[ZachEY]

Just now, TeddEY said:

Obviously.

I'm just not spending my Sunday rooting against Sam Darnold for some "I don't know why she swallowed the fly" type scenario.

I should add that it's much more fulfilling, and efficient, to spend my Sundays rooting against Sam Darnold so that I can be right on the internet.

[nycdan]

Draft picks are wonderful when you aren't in the playoffs.  It IS our playoffs.  Fine.  But the odds (IMO) are that probably only one of Jeudy or Lamb will turn out to be a great WR.  And 1, maybe 2 of the top-3 OTs will turn out to be at least very good.  There are so many high and mid-1st round draft picks that just simply fail, at every position.

A few years back, there were 2 *can't-miss* OGs in the draft.  Cooper and Warmack.  They both missed badly.

In 2015 there were 4 WRs drafted in the top-20 picks.  You expect a #1 WR there?  Amari Cooper was great.  Kevin White was trash.  DeVante Parker finally had a great season in his 5th year in the league.  Nelson Agholor is probably a decent #3 WR.  So 1, maybe 2 of the 4 were worth picking there.

My point is that we are projecting to 'fill the holes' with draft picks.  You can't assume that.  NFL draft history is full of can't-miss prospects who whiffed.  If you are lucky, you fill holes with half of your draft picks.  Which is why I am not for trading away a bona fide star for draft picks unless there is another reason (i.e disgruntled or cap trouble making him unaffordable).   You could end up trading Jamal Adams for Kevin White 2.0, or Chance Warmack 2.0, just as easily as getting a very good player.  Not a necessary risk.

Use our picks well and hope we come away with 3 starters out of our first four picks but be content if we come away with 2 plus a decent backup.  That would be a lot better than our past 10 years of drafting.  

I'm not opposed to trading in general, but I am cautiously optimistic that we will have a few quality players at positions of need at #11.  Certainly until we see how things shake out over the next 3 months, it's hard to project.  Trading up if someone falls (like if Thomas is your clear #1 guy and he falls to #7 or lower) can make sense.  I'm not sure I'd do it before the draft though.

[GREENBEAN]

2 hours ago, slats said:

No interest in trading up, and I hope they have no interest, either. It's a strong OL and WR draft. There will be OL and WRs taken outside of the first round who go onto having better careers than some of the guys taken in the first. They should just stick to their board. 

And if all of the top three OTs and two WRs are gone by #11, that could very well mean that one of the QBs fell. With three teams directly behind the Jets who could be very interested in a QB, they could be in an excellent position to trade down from there, collecting more picks, which should be a goal. 

Exactly. If all of those guys are taken, then someone expected to go higher that someone is licking their chops at getting will be sitting there. Hell, Josh Allen slipped way farther than anyone expected last season. Crazy stuff happens. If somehow one or more of the top tier QB's is still there at 11 someone in the teens or 20's is going to be amazed at how much closer the player is to where they pick and make a move. 

If I'm JD I sit and wait. let the draft swirl around us and wait. If Thomas, Wills, Wirfs, Juedy or lamb are there, you take the one you want most. If the QB's are there you answer all of the calls that are coming in and grab someone like Badass etc later. 

[Larz]

We have a long way to go with the college kids going through the combine and pro days etc and free agency. 
 

 

[nycdan]

6 minutes ago, GREENBEAN said:

Exactly. If all of those guys are taken, then someone expected to go higher that someone is licking their chops at getting will be sitting there. Hell, Josh Allen slipped way farther than anyone expected last season. Crazy stuff happens. If somehow one or more of the top tier QB's is still there at 11 someone in the teens or 20's is going to be amazed at how much closer the player is to where they pick and make a move. 

If I'm JD I sit and wait. let the draft swirl around us and wait. If Thomas, Wills, Wirfs, Juedy or lamb are there, you take the one you want most. If the QB's are there you answer all of the calls that are coming in and grab someone like Badass etc later. 

Just curious.  I see Austin Jackson listed in the top-3 OL on a number of sites.  Anyone know if he's potentially as good as the others?  Having a fourth guy in the mix would almost guarantee one drops to us at #11.

 

[JiF]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

It depends.  If your LT is one of the worst in the league, then getting an upgrade at LT is essential.  It's either a "you have one or you don't" situation.  Just look at how bad the OL was for us when Beachum went down, and how much better it got when he returned.  And Beachum isn't even all that good.  

Meanwhile, tons of elite WR1's have failed to have a lot of postseason/Super Bowl success over the years.  

You need an above average LT to go deep into the postseason.  WR can be more of a mixed bag.  

Fair and good points.  

[GREENBEAN]

Just curious.  I see Austin Jackson listed in the top-3 OL on a number of sites.  Anyone know if he's potentially as good as the others?  Having a fourth guy in the mix would almost guarantee one drops to us at #11.
 

Imo he’s a part of the next tier. I was looking at him in the late second but I’ve seen some mocks where he is taken in the top 10.
That pass rusher epenesa had his way with him a few weeks ago.
I like him but I’m just really getting into my digging on a lot of these guys.
He would be one id like if we trade down or end up taking a WR in rd 1. Let’s see what the combine does for him.


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[FTL Jet Fan]

3 hours ago, Beerfish said:

Well it is an inconvenient truth the last sentence of yours.  I would not even say 'some poster'.  I would say 95% of all posters on this site that even remotely follow the draft would have drafted better than mccagnan over his 5 year period.  I am being totally serious.

The sad truth

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, TeddEY said:

Obviously.

I'm just not spending my Sunday rooting against Sam Darnold for some "I don't know why she swallowed the fly" type scenario.

I wanted Darnold to have nice games and for the team to lose.  Complicated, I know.  

[ZachEY]

Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

I wanted Darnold to have nice games and for the team to lose.  Complicated, I know.  

Considering we were playing the Big Ben-less Steelers and the Bills resting their starters, there was an extremely narrow window for that to happen.

Of course, in typical Jets fashion, the worst case scenario came to fruition.  We won, and Darnold wasn't very good.

[SR24]

1 hour ago, nycdan said:

Just curious.  I see Austin Jackson listed in the top-3 OL on a number of sites.  Anyone know if he's potentially as good as the others?  Having a fourth guy in the mix would almost guarantee one drops to us at #11.

 

Austin Jackson is definitely a drop off from Wirfs,Wills and Thomas. He’ll be a late 1st early 2nd guy imo. Fwiw Epenesa demolished him when Iowa played USC, 4 tackles 2.5 sacks and a FF 

[Paradis]

Besides drafting a DT at #11 --- The only thing that could convince me quicker  that Joe Douglas is a complete moron --

Is trading up. 

What a disaster what would be. 

[Thai Jet]

 

4 hours ago, Beerfish said:

Except for the fact that a LOT of people have blasted our picks and draft strategy the day they were made or even before.

I do recall but when these people are asked who THEY would pick you get silence. Tom Shame called out Macc for the Q pick. I asked him repeatedly who he would have taken there but he NEVER gave a rational response. Just senseless ramblings to avoid any commitment to an actual player. Talk is cheap.

[TNJet]

We can get any offensive lineman Thomas excluded at 11. Maybe even Thomas because the leagues loves the sexy "skill players in the top 10".

[redlichtie]

I’m baffled by the logic that we need to trade Adams to acquire more picks.

We’ll get two additional picks tops and then what?...we need a new safety, and no matter how good that player is they will almost certainly be a significant drop-off in quality from JA so say hello to getting gashed by every TE in the league again and generally picked upon on the ground and in the air....and we lose our best pass rusher too. So that’s actually about 3 players we need to replace

Meanwhile what evidence do we have exactly that we’ll make those picks count? 
 

we are crying out for playmakers, we finally have one...and people want to get rid

madness

[Jetsfan80]

4 minutes ago, redlichtie said:

We’ll get two additional picks tops and then what?...we need a new safety, and no matter how good that player is they will almost certainly be a significant drop-off in quality from JA so say hello to getting gashed by every TE in the league again and generally picked upon on the ground and in the air....and we lose our best rusher. So actually that’s 3 players we need to replace

The difference between Jamal Adams and a cheap free agent Safety (there are a lot of decent ones available this offseason, see below) is not nearly as vast as the difference between Chuma Edoga/Brandon Shell and a talented young RT, or the difference between Brian Winters and a talented young Guard, or the difference between Jonatthan Harrison and a talented young Center.  We also can, and should, do better than Kelvin Beachum at LT (he turns 31 this summer, by the way).  

No matter how good Jamal is, he's not as important to the defense as upgrades on the OL will be to Darnold and the Offense.  And the minute you decide not to trade Jamal when the timing is right, you're moving towards paying him.  Try upgrading positions of importance when you're paying Mosley $17.5M per AND Adams over $15M per.  

 

Free Agent Safeties:

 

Player	Pos.	2019 Team	2020 Team	Type	Snaps	Age	Current APY	Guarantees
Rodney McLeod	S	Eagles		UFA	99.8%	30	$4,000,000	$1,500,000
Anthony Harris	S	Vikings		UFA	83.1%	28	$3,095,000	$0
Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix	S	Bears		UFA	99.4%	28	$3,000,000	$500,000
Karl Joseph	S	Raiders		UFA	55.4%	27	$2,971,079	$11,884,316
Clayton Geathers	S	Colts		UFA	51%	27	$2,750,000	$1,250,000
Nate Ebner	S	Patriots		UFA	0%	32	$2,500,000	$1,200,000
Cody Davis	S	Jaguars		UFA	5.3%	31	$2,500,000	$2,500,000
Tre Boston	S	Panthers		UFA	100%	28	$2,125,000	$500,000
Jordan Lucas	S	Chiefs		UFA	3.7%	27	$2,025,000	$0
Adrian Phillips	S	Chargers		UFA	28.7%	28	$2,000,000	$1,250,000
Michael Thomas	S	Giants		UFA	26.9%	31	$2,000,000	$1,500,000
Damarious Randall	S	Browns		UFA	67.2%	28	$1,978,932	$6,401,310
Jeff Heath	S	Cowboys		UFA	66.6%	29	$1,917,750	$1,800,000
Rontez Miles	S	Jets		UFA	1.9%	32	$1,907,000	$0
Anthony Levine	S	Ravens		UFA	0%	33	$1,400,000	$1,300,000
Akeem King	S	Seahawks		UFA	24.8%	28	$1,400,000	$400,000
Walt Aikens	S	Dolphins		UFA	9.2%	29	$1,350,000	$1,300,000
Andrew Sendejo	S	Vikings		UFA	37.2%	33	$1,300,000	$500,000
Tavon Wilson	S	Lions		UFA	73.4%	30	$1,200,000	$250,000
Jahleel Addae	S	Texans		UFA	48.8%	30	$1,105,000	$150,000
Mike Adams	S	Texans		UFA	6.3%	39	$1,090,000	$0
Sean Davis	S	Steelers		UFA	5%	27	$1,021,742	$2,130,957
Vonn Bell	S	Saints		UFA	82.5%	26	$993,075	$1,825,944
Darian Stewart	S	Buccaneers		UFA	14.7%	32	$930,000	$0
Kurt Coleman	S	Bills		UFA	6.7%	32	$930,000	$0
Josh Shaw	S	Cardinals		UFA	0%	28	$895,000	$45,000
Kemal Ishmael	S	Falcons		UFA	27.3%	29	$895,000	$90,000
J.J. Wilcox	S	Falcons		UFA	0%	29	$895,000	$200,000
Johnathan Cyprien	S	Falcons		UFA	3.7%	30	$895,000	$275,000
Jaylen Watkins	S	Chargers		UFA	31%	28	$835,000	$0
Curtis Riley	S	Raiders		UFA	26.6%	28	$810,000	$165,000
Brynden Trawick	S	Ravens		UFA	1.2%	31	$805,000	$0
D.J. Swearinger	S	Saints		UFA	44.4%	29	$805,000	$0