The QB Thread

[GothamLurker]

https://www.theringer.com/2021/4/14/22383093/justin-fields-draft-stock-narratives-pro-day

Sadly, you gotta ask stuff like this considering how Watson, Mahomes, Lamar, and Russ fell. People say Russ came out of nowhere, he really didn't.......

 

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/russell-wilson-1.html

Justin is gonna be the best player in this draft imo. Look out for Kyle Trask, Mond, and Feleipe/Newman can be solid, pending were they go. Excited for this draft. Being #2, no pressure if Trevor turns out to be a bust hahaha. We simply take the leftovers "Like we were supposed to." Right?

[maury77]

 

[win4ever]

On 4/13/2021 at 6:59 PM, JiF said:

Interesting and not surprising. @greenwichjetfan was the first to bring up the on target accuracy to all parts of the field stats back when the conversation was is Fields as good as Lawrence/Lawrence isnt generational, long before Zachapono became a thing, anywho.  The one thing that is impressive though, Zachapono is a beast in the Red Zone in college.   Fields was great by any measure but Wilson was pretty ridiculous, damn near as flawless as you could be on that part of the field.

 

Fields to me has the least questions of any QB that I can remember for quite some time, on tape.  Now I don't know if he's kicking dogs and abusing massage therapists off the field.  However, on the field I think there is very little chance he completely busts.  I think he can be a Mayfield level guy at worst.  Now Lawrence and Wilson both have slightly higher upside, but Wilson's downside is concerning.  

I don't think I've seen a QB that produced as well as Fields, won as much as him, played in a Power 5 conference, have the physical gifts that he does get questioned so much.  It does make me wonder if there is something going on behind the scenes, where he's a jerk or something.  

Almost half way through the 2019 film, hopefully can knock out the last 2 by Tuesday and post the full scouting report.  

[win4ever]

On 4/13/2021 at 2:13 PM, fullblast said:

We will regret passing on Fields.

I agree

[win4ever]

On 4/14/2021 at 1:48 PM, Grandy said:

Fields has VERY impressive accuracy charts. I think people are getting to cute about his evaluation. His pocket presence, and out of pocket ability leaves something to be desired at times but he's got a great arm and is very accurate at all levels no matter what.

Interesting that he found the same thing I did from Wilson film. He's deadly accurate downfield but had a tendency to sometimes sail dump-offs. Not extremely concerning, but somewhat confusing.

Fields to me has the best production in this class because I'm taking Wilson's production against that competition with a big grain of salt.  The issue to me is that I can't (nor can most people) see behind the scenes talk with them.  I don't know if Fields is doing horrible in meetings and Wilson is knocking them out of the park.  On the field, I think Fields' production stands out much better.  I don't see this processing skill that Wilson has that trumps Fields, but that could just be me.  

[CTM]

On 4/13/2021 at 3:13 PM, fullblast said:

We will regret passing on Fields.

I can't decide if this is more accurate than 

We will regret drafting Zach Wilson

close call

[Philc1]

Suck for Sam Howell

[Philc1]

On 4/15/2021 at 12:48 AM, GothamLurker said:

https://www.theringer.com/2021/4/14/22383093/justin-fields-draft-stock-narratives-pro-day

Sadly, you gotta ask stuff like this considering how Watson, Mahomes, Lamar, and Russ fell. People say Russ came out of nowhere, he really didn't.......

 

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/russell-wilson-1.html

Justin is gonna be the best player in this draft imo. Look out for Kyle Trask, Mond, and Feleipe/Newman can be solid, pending were they go. Excited for this draft. Being #2, no pressure if Trevor turns out to be a bust hahaha. We simply take the leftovers "Like we were supposed to." Right?

Mond is the under the radar guy to look out for

[win4ever]

 

JT O Sullivan interview starts at 34 mins. 

[JohnnyLV]

Not sure if anyone watched but Mills Pro Day was pretty impressive today. Yeah he was throwing in shorts but he measured much better athletically than expected, was really smooth throwing, and showed leadership in mostly running the Pro Day himself. I am sure his stock went out will be interesting to see if any of the 2nd tier of Mills, Mond and Trash sneak into the bottom of the 1st for fifth year option.

[JohnnyLV]

JT O'Sullivan posted his (real) Qb rankings today. Will certainly make Fields fans happy (or even madder we are not selecting him and will play him twice a year when he goes to NE

 

 

[Philc1]

Not sure why Fields and Lance get sooo much hype when Mond is the same thing but maybe better

[TokyoJetsFan]

Chris Simms explains why he moved Trey Lance above Justin Fields in his QB rankings just a week ahead of the 2021 NFL Draft. Fields is his #6 ranked QB now.

 

[Irish Jet]

3 hours ago, johnnysd said:

JT O'Sullivan posted his (real) Qb rankings today. Will certainly make Fields fans happy (or even madder we are not selecting him and will play him twice a year when he goes to NE

 

 

Should make is feel really good. Let’s take a look at his rankings last year...

1. Tua

2. Burrow

3. Jake Fromm

4. Jordan Love

5. Nate Stanley (Iowa)

6. Anthony Gordon (Wash. St.)

7. Jalen Hurts

8. Justin Herbert

9. Jacob Eason

10. Steven Montez (Colorado)

Genuinely as bad as it gets. 

[adobolo2]

Jt o'sullivan's final qb rankings 

1 fields

2 lawerance

3 lance

4 Wilson??

5 Mond

 

[K_O_Brien]

On 10/26/2020 at 11:31 AM, K_O_Brien said:

I like this Zach Wilson kid. Hard to evaluate based on competition, but he's fun to watch.  Would look good on the Colts. 

Or the Jets. 

[Philc1]

On 4/27/2021 at 12:56 AM, TokyoJetsFan said:

Chris Simms explains why he moved Trey Lance above Justin Fields in his QB rankings just a week ahead of the 2021 NFL Draft. Fields is his #6 ranked QB now.

 

Fields is going to suck.  Lance is in a perfect situation in SF.  No pressure on him to start as a rookie unless Jimmy G gets hurt.  They have a good OL and weapons 

[TheMo]

4 hours ago, Philc1 said:

Fields is going to suck.  Lance is in a perfect situation in SF.  No pressure on him to start as a rookie unless Jimmy G gets hurt.  They have a good OL and weapons 

Ehhhh Fields is in a good spot if you ask me with Nagy and Robinson. If he flames out it’s my own bad prospect analysis nothing more. Unlike others on this board (not referring to you) I will actually own my bad takes (Josh Rosen lmao). 

[Philc1]

1 hour ago, TheMo said:

Ehhhh Fields is in a good spot if you ask me with Nagy and Robinson. If he flames out it’s my own bad prospect analysis nothing more. Unlike others on this board (not referring to you) I will actually own my bad takes (Josh Rosen lmao). 

Chicago is kind of a toxic environment for qbs now.  Not quite as bad as the Jets but close.  I don’t see Fields working out there

[JohnnyLV]

I thought that both Carolina and Denver (discounting the silly Rodgers rumour) passing on Fields was really telling on the NFL's perception of Fields vs. the public or talking head opinion.

It was obvious Carolina was still open to a QB so they only one they would have taken is Lance. Denver has a horrible situation at QB and they decided Lock + CB > Fields. 

Looking at the board I think Chicago could have maybe even have gotten him much lower. Not sure NE takes Fields over Jones anyway -there were a lot of connections of NE to Jones, Chicago might have only needed to get to 18 ahead of Washington. 

[win4ever]

Ehhhh Fields is in a good spot if you ask me with Nagy and Robinson. If he flames out it’s my own bad prospect analysis nothing more. Unlike others on this board (not referring to you) I will actually own my bad takes (Josh Rosen lmao). 

There has to be something up with Fields behind the scenes. A trend I noticed was a lot of the analytics/film review folks preferred Fields, but more people connected to the NFL preferred Wilson by a good amount.

I'm wondering if something came up that drove teams away. Wilson ok, different style QB but there is no way in hell Trey Lance is better than what Fields put on tape.

So I'm wondering what the issue is. It can't be the epilepsy because that seems like it can be treated.

At this point, I'm in the process of trying to buy in on Wilson lol. I see the good, just hoping the bad can be corrected.

[Grandy]

1 hour ago, win4ever said:

 

There has to be something up with Fields behind the scenes. A trend I noticed was a lot of the analytics/film review folks preferred Fields, but more people connected to the NFL preferred Wilson by a good amount.

I'm wondering if something came up that drove teams away. Wilson ok, different style QB but there is no way in hell Trey Lance is better than what Fields put on tape.

So I'm wondering what the issue is. It can't be the epilepsy because that seems like it can be treated.

At this point, I'm in the process of trying to buy in on Wilson lol. I see the good, just hoping the bad can be corrected.

 

Has to be the case. Wilson was preferred pretty heavily by film guys and apparently FO's as well but stats Fields more than checked boxes of analytics, experience, toughness, and stats. His charts were absurd, and coupled with the potential of his legs it's hard to see that he would be picked 4th if everything else checked out. Him having concerns might be the case, unless Wilson and Lance just blew teams away in meetings which based on reports seems very likely as well.

[win4ever]

Has to be the case. Wilson was preferred pretty heavily by film guys and apparently FO's as well but stats Fields more than checked boxes of analytics, experience, toughness, and stats. His charts were absurd, and coupled with the potential of his legs it's hard to see that he would be picked 4th if everything else checked out. Him having concerns might be the case, unless Wilson and Lance just blew teams away in meetings which based on reports seems very likely as well.

Yeah, just not sure what the case could be. From everything I've heard, hard worker, studies film, coaches seemed to love him.

[TheMo]

7 hours ago, Philc1 said:

Chicago is kind of a toxic environment for qbs now.  Not quite as bad as the Jets but close.  I don’t see Fields working out there

I think Nagy is a very good play caller who makes things easier on QBs and was handcuffed by one Mitchell Trubisky. Time will tell. I am clearly very high on Fields (he was #2 for me behind Lawrence). Seems like a good guy so hopefully I am right haha.

[TheMo]

4 hours ago, win4ever said:

 

There has to be something up with Fields behind the scenes. A trend I noticed was a lot of the analytics/film review folks preferred Fields, but more people connected to the NFL preferred Wilson by a good amount.

I'm wondering if something came up that drove teams away. Wilson ok, different style QB but there is no way in hell Trey Lance is better than what Fields put on tape.

So I'm wondering what the issue is. It can't be the epilepsy because that seems like it can be treated.

At this point, I'm in the process of trying to buy in on Wilson lol. I see the good, just hoping the bad can be corrected.

 

Never know. This is the same league that couldn't seem to wrap there head around Herbert and Watson. I think a lot of time people hold onto heuristics rather than following objective data. It's fairly common in sports and frankly even science driven areas like medicine. People always think they know better than the probabilities/statistics/data but in the long run they don't. It doesn't surprise me that some of the least analytical people you can find (football executives) seem to struggle with this stuff. It's the same reason that they seem to have issues incorporating load management and medical management of sports physiology onto teams. It bucks the trends and people are extremely impatient.

[win4ever]

2 minutes ago, TheMo said:

Never know. This is the same league that couldn't seem to wrap there head around Herbert and Watson. I think a lot of time people hold onto heuristics rather than following objective data. It's fairly common in sports and frankly even science driven areas like medicine. People always think they know better than the probabilities/statistics/data but in the long run they don't. It doesn't surprise me that some of the least analytical people you can find (football executives) seem to struggle with this stuff. It's the same reason that they seem to have issues incorporating load management and medical management of sports physiology onto teams. It bucks the trends and people are extremely impatient.

It'll be interesting to see how it turns out.  I was a big fan of Fields, so it hurts to not see him picked, but pretty much reduced to rooting for Wilson and hoping the mental aspects can be fixed.  

I do want to add, I still maintain the idea that a truly mobile QB is the best fit in the Shanahan system, which is probably why they picked Lance (over Jones).  But the Fields one baffles me.   

I don't think people do well with change, it's all the "back in the day we did...." ways.  

[Philc1]

Ironic the Vikings got Mond with the pick we traded them.  He will be the second or third best QB in this draft after Lawrence 

[Irish Jet]

15 hours ago, TheMo said:

Never know. This is the same league that couldn't seem to wrap there head around Herbert and Watson. I think a lot of time people hold onto heuristics rather than following objective data. It's fairly common in sports and frankly even science driven areas like medicine. People always think they know better than the probabilities/statistics/data but in the long run they don't. It doesn't surprise me that some of the least analytical people you can find (football executives) seem to struggle with this stuff. It's the same reason that they seem to have issues incorporating load management and medical management of sports physiology onto teams. It bucks the trends and people are extremely impatient.

What?

Herbert was the opposite. The fans and media were down on them and they went higher than projected because the NFL teams could see his talent. That pick was met with a ton of ridicule, the exact opposite of the sheep blindly praising Fields. 

Fields was ridiculously overhyped and the NFL teams seen that. And of course Chicago drafts him, a team with a history of atrocious judgement at QB’s. It also painfully obvious that they were bowing to the fan pressure, the disillusioned fans have been calling for everyone’s head. Fields will be the latest QB disaster class for the Bears.  

[Philc1]

5 minutes ago, Irish Jet said:

What?

Herbert was the opposite. The fans and media were down on them and they went higher than projected because the NFL teams could see his talent. That pick was met with a ton of ridicule, the exact opposite of the sheep blindly praising Fields. 

Fields was ridiculously overhyped and the NFL teams seen that. And of course Chicago drafts him, a team with a history of atrocious judgement at QB’s. It also painfully obvious that they were bowing to the fan pressure, the disillusioned fans have been calling for everyone’s head. Fields will be the latest QB disaster class for the Bears.  

Chicago is a toxic environment for young QBs now.  The fans and media there will go absolutely ballistic on Fields the first time he struggles in a game.

 

And I don’t know if Fields has the personality to handle that

[maury77]

16 hours ago, TheMo said:

Never know. This is the same league that couldn't seem to wrap there head around Herbert and Watson. I think a lot of time people hold onto heuristics rather than following objective data. It's fairly common in sports and frankly even science driven areas like medicine. People always think they know better than the probabilities/statistics/data but in the long run they don't. It doesn't surprise me that some of the least analytical people you can find (football executives) seem to struggle with this stuff. It's the same reason that they seem to have issues incorporating load management and medical management of sports physiology onto teams. It bucks the trends and people are extremely impatient.

Or people in high positions are sometimes just dumb. @southparkcpa I think has posted that he has worked with people in the Carolina organization and commented on how unremarkable, not smart they are once you meet them. I run into politicans frequently in my line of work and, for the most part, I have generally found them to be a lot less remarkable than I expected them to be (aside from their desire to get people to like them). 

[southparkcpa]

4 hours ago, maury77 said:

Or people in high positions are sometimes just dumb. @southparkcpa I think has posted that he has worked with people in the Carolina organization and commented on how unremarkable, not smart they are once you meet them. I run into politicans frequently in my line of work and, for the most part, I have generally found them to be a lot less remarkable than I expected them to be (aside from their desire to get people to like them). 

Absolfukkinltely.   The GM of the Bills worked for me in 1996.   He , IMO, was very smart. BUT others... not so much.