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Trey Lance or Bust Baby!!!


Charlie Brown
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2 hours ago, nycdan said:

This is all very reasonable.  I can't explain the seeming cultish fascination with Wilson after one strong season in a weak division.  I see some very accurate passes and if I squint hard, I can see why some people are talking about a Rodgers-like upside to him.  But I see that possibility as something like 5% with a big chunk of the outcomes being more like Chad Pennington.  Accurate, decent size but not exactly a strong runner, and just one more injury away from mediocrity.  

Lance is definitely one of those QBs you look at and try to separate the athlete from the passer.  He obviously had incredible numbers (0 INTs!) in 2019, but like Wilson, it was against competition that couldn't hold a candle to the type of talent Fields and Jones played against.  Even Burrow with his one great year played in the SEC.  

The weird part is that the people that like Wilson often are reluctant to even acknowledge any of this. Some seem convinced he is a lock to be a star based on his one great season.  I'm not even convinced Lawrence will be a star, but I'm far more inclined to believe that than Wilson.  Lance feels like a slightly riskier version of Fields.  Very high upside, but needs a year of refinement and then has a shot to be very good, if not great.  I guess the question of whether I prefer Fields, or Lance plus another 2nd this year and a 1st next year (possibly) is the tough one.

I think it's all media to be honest.  I think we live in a time where anything edited properly and shown in a light of media is taken word for word at the altar.  I know someone bumped the Watson threads in the draft year, but it follows the media.  If the media says, this guy is mediocre, there are too many people that will believe it and then parrot it.  I was guilty of it too at one point.  

To me, the media serves one purpose, which is to create discussion.  I remember Maycock going on TV saying "sources say the Jets may have to trade up from 9 overall to get Geno Smith" right after his pro-day.  In this instance, the talk will all be about Wilson/Fields and how it's not set in stone.  You'll have guys go back and forth on it, until......."Would the Jags really pass on Lawrence for Fields" snippets start coming out.  You know it's coming, especially after they hired Shotty, who just worked with Russel Wilson (who plays more like Fields than Lawrence).  Once that happens, we'll get all the Lawrence/Fields comparisons, throw in Jags/Jets, and then capture the rest of the NFL with "Which team is more dysfunctional?" talk.  You know that "Everything was set, but Fields has really impressed with workouts" story is also coming and now Urban is unsure. 

February:  Fields/Wilson

March:  Lawrence/Fields

April:  Jags/Jets

Build up the drama all the way to the draft.  Last year, it was the "Will Burrow say NO to the Bengals? He should" story.  The year before "Will they pick Murray with Rosen on the roster?" literally after the HC was on record saying Murray was the perfect QB for his system.  Every year, there's just drama because that is what sells.  

I don't get the Wilson hype quite as much because it's just risky.   He had an amazing one year in a Covid season against basically nobody, and there's a bunch of issues on film that people skip over.  He had 3 INTs, but defenders literally dropping INTs left and right but it's not a problem.  I understand the allure of the arm, especially with guys like Mahomes/Allen but he's not on the same level as them.  

I think the Jets draft Fields at 2.  

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36 minutes ago, win4ever said:

I think it's all media to be honest.  I think we live in a time where anything edited properly and shown in a light of media is taken word for word at the altar.  I know someone bumped the Watson threads in the draft year, but it follows the media.  If the media says, this guy is mediocre, there are too many people that will believe it and then parrot it.  I was guilty of it too at one point.  

To me, the media serves one purpose, which is to create discussion.  I remember Maycock going on TV saying "sources say the Jets may have to trade up from 9 overall to get Geno Smith" right after his pro-day.  In this instance, the talk will all be about Wilson/Fields and how it's not set in stone.  You'll have guys go back and forth on it, until......."Would the Jags really pass on Lawrence for Fields" snippets start coming out.  You know it's coming, especially after they hired Shotty, who just worked with Russel Wilson (who plays more like Fields than Lawrence).  Once that happens, we'll get all the Lawrence/Fields comparisons, throw in Jags/Jets, and then capture the rest of the NFL with "Which team is more dysfunctional?" talk.  You know that "Everything was set, but Fields has really impressed with workouts" story is also coming and now Urban is unsure. 

February:  Fields/Wilson

March:  Lawrence/Fields

April:  Jags/Jets

Build up the drama all the way to the draft.  Last year, it was the "Will Burrow say NO to the Bengals? He should" story.  The year before "Will they pick Murray with Rosen on the roster?" literally after the HC was on record saying Murray was the perfect QB for his system.  Every year, there's just drama because that is what sells.  

I don't get the Wilson hype quite as much because it's just risky.   He had an amazing one year in a Covid season against basically nobody, and there's a bunch of issues on film that people skip over.  He had 3 INTs, but defenders literally dropping INTs left and right but it's not a problem.  I understand the allure of the arm, especially with guys like Mahomes/Allen but he's not on the same level as them.  

I think the Jets draft Fields at 2.  

Just a thought.  GMs often go in a very different direction that all the draft pundits think.  It would surprise me if Wilson went ahead of Fields.  It would not surprise me if Wilson slipped out of the top-5 picks and wasn't even the third QB drafted.  Mahomes and Watson went 10 and 12 IIRC.  Is it possible some GM thinks Lance is a better fit for their team than Wilson?  Very possible as they are so different.

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19 hours ago, Charlie Brown said:

Look I know all about Watson and why he would be great but the odds IMO of the Jets getting him are low low low.......

I also think Zack and Justin are nice but the DUDE we need to get is TREY LANCE!!!!

He is underrated .......trade down within the ten and go get him......

:) 

I love this prospect. Its a shame because it just doesnt seem to line up for us. Sitting out a full year, lack of experience makes it kind of crazy to draft him so high. It would be so ballzy and be criticized to no end initially. Trading down is so risky if he will even be where we are. It's a shame because i think this player has to potential to be great. Im seeing some mocks where he is going as high as 7 and as low as in the 20s. 

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2 hours ago, Copernicus said:

I love this prospect. Its a shame because it just doesnt seem to line up for us. Sitting out a full year, lack of experience makes it kind of crazy to draft him so high. It would be so ballzy and be criticized to no end initially. Trading down is so risky if he will even be where we are. It's a shame because i think this player has to potential to be great. Im seeing some mocks where he is going as high as 7 and as low as in the 20s. 

There were Mocks that had Geno going top 1 to 10

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2013-nfl-mock-draft-chiefs-select-geno-smith-with-first-pick/

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl-mock-draft/2013/4/8/4192860/2013-nfl-mock-draft-three-rounds-geno-smith-tavon-austin

https://walterfootball.com/draft2013.php

 

 

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Just a thought.  GMs often go in a very different direction that all the draft pundits think.  It would surprise me if Wilson went ahead of Fields.  It would not surprise me if Wilson slipped out of the top-5 picks and wasn't even the third QB drafted.  Mahomes and Watson went 10 and 12 IIRC.  Is it possible some GM thinks Lance is a better fit for their team than Wilson?  Very possible as they are so different.


I think GMs get a lot more inside information on the mental aspect of a guy than we do. We see the tape like JaMarcus Russell and go wow, without knowing he's dumb as a rock.

I think fit matters a lot with the coaches, something that I think was evident with Geno Smith here. Going from open Air Raid to constricted West Coast was the worst transition out there.

Much like Fields, I think a QB like Lance would fit into the Shanahan offense because the main base is outside zone run. However, as Belichek did against the Rams, a bear front creates issue. He's been mixing up more power runs to counter this, and then throwing in WR runs/fake runs. Essentially the goal is a bit of hesitation on the middle tier, so the downfield blocking can get in place. You add a mobile QB to it, and a fairly raw guy like RGIII has one of the best rookie seasons.

That's part of the reason I like Fields to the Jets because I think there is a good fit to the system.
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