Jets sign WR Corey Davis from Titans

[Philc1]

15 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

I hope this doesn’t foreshadow bad things...

 

[football guy]

On 3/16/2021 at 10:47 AM, football guy said:

While I tend to agree, I don't expect that to be the style of offense we run. I know how Davis fits, but again, I kind of viewed that as how Mims might fit. Mims has a lot to work to do on his route running (and I believe he will make strides this year), but I think there's a real chance he's relegated as a deep threat in the passing game due to the redundancy. That doesn't mean he won't have value and personally I don't see him busting- he has too much talent- but for a lack of a better term, he may "disappoint" by producing inconsistent stats more like DeVante Parker over the course of his rookie contract rather than producing along the lines of a true #1 receiver. I hope I'm wrong, but at the end, player's can only do what they're capable of doing. 

It's hard to explain in simple terms like "X/Y/Z" because the Shanahan/LaFleur offense doesn't stick to traditional labels on how they deploy each WR. "Position-less offense" is the term you always read about when referencing it, but with that, you still need to figure out who can do what within the rules of the game. The "X" position lines up on the LOS and can't go in motion, so they'll need to beat coverage, usually with strength and quickness. Think Pierre Garcon. They'll look for Davis to sell play-action and get open over the middle, with the occasional deep ball, screens, etc. The "Z" and "Y/F" receivers line up off the LOS (and in the slot), so they are often used in motion and require a lot of quickness. In SF, they view Samuel and Aiyuk as guys who can line up all over, but if they have a deep-ball play they're not using Samuel at the X; they're probably putting him at the Z or Y (or in the backfield), and Aiyuk at the X. 

Mims isn't a guy whose going to thrive in pre-snap motion. He's not a threat on jet-sweeps and is more fast-than-quick. Can he be impactful after the catch? Sure. But he's not a natural make a guy miss and break tackles type of guy. Where he dominates is down the field with the ball in the air. The Jets will surely get him his opportunities, but I fear it won't be as frequently because Corey Davis will dominate the stuff over the middle off play-action. The more likely sense I get is that Corey Davis will be the top guy and dominate the most touches, with either Crowder or his replacement and the TE/RBs getting a lot of targets behind him. That would leave Mims more as a 4th-5th option, but someone who would have his own set of plays that are designed for him (deep balls) but may only get 4-5 targets a game. That doesn't mean he can't necessarily develop into a better player (hell maybe he proves to be better than Davis and forces the staff to use him in that role), but I think more likely we shouldn't expect Mims to be a 1000 yard "#1" receiver if they're focusing Davis in that "X/over-the-middle" receiver role. 

I hate that the absolute worst-case scenario came of this, but reflecting on it, I think we could learn a lot regarding what players the Jets will target at WR this offseason: 

1. System > Skill. For better or worse, this coaching staff is uber-committed to "roles" just as Adam Gase was. On offense and defense, they want guys who fit in the system first-and-foremost, then add gold stars for specific traits (i.e. arm strength or playmaking ability outside of structure for Zach Wilson). They are not the type of staff who will mold the scheme to the talent. 
2. X-receiver ≠ No. 1 Receiver. A common misconception around the league is that an "X" receiver means a player is a Number 1 receiver. That's false. Although Davis's target share and usage would indicate that early in the season, the intent of the offense is not to funnel the ball to the X. The importance of the X in this offense is that they tend to be the best blocker and is the guy who the team will rely on in the intermediate/deep section of the field in contested situations, with the Z and Y being guys who are relied on to make plays after the catch (usually schemed into space). That's not to say that Elijah Moore can't win deep (everyone knows he can), rather, the goal of the offense is to get him in space so he can make plays after the catch. Ultimately, whoever the most talented receiver at winning their assignment will be the offense's top wide receiver. In Atlanta, it was Julio Jones as the "X". In San Francisco, it has been Deebo Samuel as the "X/Y/Z/Hybrid RB". 
3. Versatility is paramount. If a player is one-dimensional, the chances are they're going to be low on the depth chart; if a player doesn't meet the coaching staff's standards, they're going to be in the proverbial dog-house... doesn't matter how talented or how good they are at a specific trait, they want guys who are complete. Shanahan's treatment of Brandon Aiyuk was a more public version of what had been going on with our staff and Mims, the primary differences being that Aiyuk's traits are a better fit for the scheme and that Aiyuk was able to regain his confidence whereas Mims's cratered. LaFleur is more creative at finding ways to use certain types of players than Gase was. For instance, Berrios was used at the Y-slot, Z (many times motioning out), and in the backfield essentially as Elijah Moore's backup. Crowder too lined up elsewhere more often than he did under Gase, but still, you can see in the play-calling that they felt he was less versatile than guys like Moore and Berrios. Davis was primarily an "X" receiver all season, and with him it was clear that they valued him more there than anywhere else... if the team wanted to, they could have lined up Davis at the Z, Crowder/Moore/Berrios at the Y, and Mims at the X if they felt that's all Mims was capable of playing, but they opted against it. I think this was a direct blow to Mims' confidence, which is why we saw him become progressively worse/disinterested, rather than him not being fit to play X early in the season. Even in games where he wasn't involved, you saw him give a lot of effort... all that disappeared by seasons end. 
4. Route running and fluidity are critical. This coaching staff is not interested in guys who lack the natural fluidity or the football IQ to run all the routes required at each receiver spot. This, above all else, is why I think Mims went from a shining star to a dud in the eyes of the coaches. If you watched Mims play last year, it was clear that while naturally gifted in contested situations and tracking the deep ball, he's not a natural runner after the catch largely due to his length and lack of quickness. Still, there have been many receivers like him that excelled in this offense in spite of those traits, but those players were fluid runners after the catch whereas Mims is much more robotic. Keep this in mind when evaluating guys. 

 

In keeping these 4 factors in mind, this is the outlook I have for the Jets current receivers and guys I believe they'll target in the offseason: 

 

High-profile receivers that fit what the Jets are looking for:

• Calvin Ridley (trade) 
• Chris Godwin (UFA)
• Garrett Wilson (Round 1)
• Drake London (Round 1-2) 
• Jahan Dotson (Round 1-2) 
• Treylon Burks (Round 1-2) 

[Peace Frog]

3 minutes ago, football guy said:

I hate that the absolute worst-case scenario came of this, but reflecting on it, I think we could learn a lot regarding what players the Jets will target at WR this offseason: 

1. System > Skill. For better or worse, this coaching staff is uber-committed to "roles" just as Adam Gase was. On offense and defense, they want guys who fit in the system first-and-foremost, then add gold stars for specific traits (i.e. arm strength or playmaking ability outside of structure for Zach Wilson). They are not the type of staff who will mold the scheme to the talent. 
2. X-receiver ≠ No. 1 Receiver. A common misconception around the league is that an "X" receiver means a player is a Number 1 receiver. That's false. Although Davis's target share and usage would indicate that early in the season, the intent of the offense is not to funnel the ball to the X. The importance of the X in this offense is that they tend to be the best blocker and is the guy who the team will rely on in the intermediate/deep section of the field in contested situations, with the Z and Y being guys who are relied on to make plays after the catch (usually schemed into space). That's not to say that Elijah Moore can't win deep (everyone knows he can), rather, the goal of the offense is to get him in space so he can make plays after the catch. Ultimately, whoever the most talented receiver at winning their assignment will be the offense's top wide receiver. In Atlanta, it was Julio Jones as the "X". In San Francisco, it has been Deebo Samuel as the "X/Y/Z/Hybrid RB". 
3. Versatility is paramount. If a player is one-dimensional, the chances are they're going to be low on the depth chart; if a player doesn't meet the coaching staff's standards, they're going to be in the proverbial dog-house... doesn't matter how talented or how good they are at a specific trait, they want guys who are complete. Shanahan's treatment of Brandon Aiyuk was a more public version of what had been going on with our staff and Mims, the primary differences being that Aiyuk's traits are a better fit for the scheme and that Aiyuk was able to regain his confidence whereas Mims's cratered. LaFleur is more creative at finding ways to use certain types of players than Gase was. For instance, Berrios was used at the Y-slot, Z (many times motioning out), and in the backfield essentially as Elijah Moore's backup. Crowder too lined up elsewhere more often than he did under Gase, but still, you can see in the play-calling that they felt he was less versatile than guys like Moore and Berrios. Davis was primarily an "X" receiver all season, and with him it was clear that they valued him more there than anywhere else... if the team wanted to, they could have lined up Davis at the Z, Crowder/Moore/Berrios at the Y, and Mims at the X if they felt that's all Mims was capable of playing, but they opted against it. I think this was a direct blow to Mims' confidence, which is why we saw him become progressively worse/disinterested, rather than him not being fit to play X early in the season. Even in games where he wasn't involved, you saw him give a lot of effort... all that disappeared by seasons end. 
4. Route running and fluidity are critical. This coaching staff is not interested in guys who lack the natural fluidity or the football IQ to run all the routes required at each receiver spot. This, above all else, is why I think Mims went from a shining star to a dud in the eyes of the coaches. If you watched Mims play last year, it was clear that while naturally gifted in contested situations and tracking the deep ball, he's not a natural runner after the catch largely due to his length and lack of quickness. Still, there have been many receivers like him that excelled in this offense in spite of those traits, but those players were fluid runners after the catch whereas Mims is much more robotic. Keep this in mind when evaluating guys. 

 

In keeping these 4 factors in mind, this is the outlook I have for the Jets current receivers and guys I believe they'll target in the offseason: 

 

High-profile receivers that fit what the Jets are looking for:

• Calvin Ridley (trade) 
• Chris Godwin (UFA)
• Garrett Wilson (Round 1)
• Drake London (Round 1-2) 
• Jahan Dotson (Round 1-2) 
• Treylon Burks (Round 1-2) 

How would you classify Wilson London Dotson and Burks on the XYZ scale or combination thereof? 

And would you think Dotson kind of in the mold of Moore? I haven’t seen enough of him quite frankly. 

[jetstream23]

9 minutes ago, football guy said:

I hate that the absolute worst-case scenario came of this, but reflecting on it, I think we could learn a lot regarding what players the Jets will target at WR this offseason: 

1. System > Skill. For better or worse, this coaching staff is uber-committed to "roles" just as Adam Gase was. On offense and defense, they want guys who fit in the system first-and-foremost, then add gold stars for specific traits (i.e. arm strength or playmaking ability outside of structure for Zach Wilson). They are not the type of staff who will mold the scheme to the talent. 
2. X-receiver ≠ No. 1 Receiver. A common misconception around the league is that an "X" receiver means a player is a Number 1 receiver. That's false. Although Davis's target share and usage would indicate that early in the season, the intent of the offense is not to funnel the ball to the X. The importance of the X in this offense is that they tend to be the best blocker and is the guy who the team will rely on in the intermediate/deep section of the field in contested situations, with the Z and Y being guys who are relied on to make plays after the catch (usually schemed into space). That's not to say that Elijah Moore can't win deep (everyone knows he can), rather, the goal of the offense is to get him in space so he can make plays after the catch. Ultimately, whoever the most talented receiver at winning their assignment will be the offense's top wide receiver. In Atlanta, it was Julio Jones as the "X". In San Francisco, it has been Deebo Samuel as the "X/Y/Z/Hybrid RB". 
3. Versatility is paramount. If a player is one-dimensional, the chances are they're going to be low on the depth chart; if a player doesn't meet the coaching staff's standards, they're going to be in the proverbial dog-house... doesn't matter how talented or how good they are at a specific trait, they want guys who are complete. Shanahan's treatment of Brandon Aiyuk was a more public version of what had been going on with our staff and Mims, the primary differences being that Aiyuk's traits are a better fit for the scheme and that Aiyuk was able to regain his confidence whereas Mims's cratered. LaFleur is more creative at finding ways to use certain types of players than Gase was. For instance, Berrios was used at the Y-slot, Z (many times motioning out), and in the backfield essentially as Elijah Moore's backup. Crowder too lined up elsewhere more often than he did under Gase, but still, you can see in the play-calling that they felt he was less versatile than guys like Moore and Berrios. Davis was primarily an "X" receiver all season, and with him it was clear that they valued him more there than anywhere else... if the team wanted to, they could have lined up Davis at the Z, Crowder/Moore/Berrios at the Y, and Mims at the X if they felt that's all Mims was capable of playing, but they opted against it. I think this was a direct blow to Mims' confidence, which is why we saw him become progressively worse/disinterested, rather than him not being fit to play X early in the season. Even in games where he wasn't involved, you saw him give a lot of effort... all that disappeared by seasons end. 
4. Route running and fluidity are critical. This coaching staff is not interested in guys who lack the natural fluidity or the football IQ to run all the routes required at each receiver spot. This, above all else, is why I think Mims went from a shining star to a dud in the eyes of the coaches. If you watched Mims play last year, it was clear that while naturally gifted in contested situations and tracking the deep ball, he's not a natural runner after the catch largely due to his length and lack of quickness. Still, there have been many receivers like him that excelled in this offense in spite of those traits, but those players were fluid runners after the catch whereas Mims is much more robotic. Keep this in mind when evaluating guys. 

 

In keeping these 4 factors in mind, this is the outlook I have for the Jets current receivers and guys I believe they'll target in the offseason: 

 

High-profile receivers that fit what the Jets are looking for:

• Calvin Ridley (trade) 
• Chris Godwin (UFA)
• Garrett Wilson (Round 1)
• Drake London (Round 1-2) 
• Jahan Dotson (Round 1-2) 
• Treylon Burks (Round 1-2) 

Would you see Drake London as the heir-apparent X to Corey Davis?  How much versatility does he have at 6'5" , 210 lbs to play the other spots?

[Rangers9]

I’d keep Davis and draft a Wr high this year. 

[Hal N of Provo]

I think the Jets will sign a big name WR1 in free agency.  They have lots of cash and that will be the easiest way in free agency to make an impact.   It will be interesting to see who actually makes it to the market.  
 

Corey Davis is good.  Elijah Moore is good.     Add a splash WR and that will help those 2 guys get better as well.  
 

Hopefully luck improves and no more than 1 of the top 3 are out at a time. 
 

I bet they don’t draft a WR early.   

[football guy]

4 hours ago, Peace Frog said:

How would you classify Wilson London Dotson and Burks on the XYZ scale or combination thereof? 

And would you think Dotson kind of in the mold of Moore? I haven’t seen enough of him quite frankly. 

Wilson is someone who can play all 3 spots. He's a natural Z, but can play the X and Y without limitations. He reminds me of Justin Jefferson and Calvin Ridley in so many ways. His short-area quickness and elusiveness is phenomenal. If you draft him, you're pretty free to rotate the receivers however you like. My guess is he and Moore would split the Z/Y snaps (assuming Davis is on the field), but he can really do it all. He's the type of receiver this staff seems to favor by default. 

London is intriguing because he has the size and contested catch ability that you would expect out of a traditional X, but he is much better after the catch than most guys with similar builds to him. For a really tall guy, he's not "leggy"... He's a very smooth runner, and in many ways reminds me of Brandon Marshall. He'd be more of an X/big-slot for us, but he can certainly have a package of plays at the Z in attempt to give him some space to make plays after the catch.  

Dotson can also play all 3 spots, but I would say his game is more suited for the X or Z in our offense, but can play out of the slot. He thrives in contested situations and does best on longer developing routes where he can beat defenders with his speed and double moves. While he's great in space, he's not the as elusive as Wilson. The popular comp for him is Diontae Johnson, but I'm not sure he has the same joystick-like movement as DJ does. I view him differently than I view Elijah Moore; Elijah shares more qualities with Wilson than he does Dotson imo, but they're all kind of similar with subtle differences. 

As far as Burks, I'm still trying to figure him out. He's more of a big slot/gadget guy that would fit more as a Z/Y in our offense, but offers the size and strength of an X. He wins with brute strength more so than speed and quickness, although he is a very good athlete. It's hard to figure out whether he'll be AJ Brown or Cordarrelle Patterson at the NFL level. 

4 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

Would you see Drake London as the heir-apparent X to Corey Davis?  How much versatility does he have at 6'5" , 210 lbs to play the other spots?

See above. I think he can be a potentially elite WR1 that excels at the X but can play the Y/Z at a high level the way I see Wilson being a guy with the highest upside at the Z/Y but can play the X at a high level. Both of them have higher upsides if played to their strengths, whereas a guy like Dotson is most well rounded imo. Burks is too much of a wild-card for me to opine on right now. 

[Hal N of Provo]

Moore isn’t good on the outside.   He doesn’t come down with contested deep balls.   He’s amazing in the slot.  

[slimjasi]

Wilson has the potential to have a nice deep ball. 
 

The jets need to bring in a WR with some size who can make contested caches deep as well as in the redzone. Think about trying to recreate the Corey Davis TD in the Titans game more regularly.

this isn’t rocket science 

[jamesr]

2 hours ago, Hal N of Provo said:

Moore isn’t good on the outside.   He doesn’t come down with contested deep balls.   He’s amazing in the slot.  

I don't recall where but someone posted a bunch of stats showing that he was far better on the outside.

[Jet2020]

Corey was a mistake. So was Mims. 

[Dinamite]

12 hours ago, football guy said:

1.  

High-profile receivers that fit what the Jets are looking for:

• Calvin Ridley (trade) 
• Chris Godwin (UFA)
• Garrett Wilson (Round 1)
• Drake London (Round 1-2) 
• Jahan Dotson (Round 1-2) 
• Treylon Burks (Round 1-2) 

Thanks for write up, very informative.  Do you know if they would be interested in Allen Robinson from Bears? Could be a good contested catch target for Zack despite down year.