Unemotional perspective on JD, Saleh, MLF. Keep or Let Go?

[Lith]

Who would ever have thought we would be having this discussion 6 weeks ago, but here we are.  5 game losing streak, could be 6 in a few days and we are talking about firing everyone again.

If it is up to me, Saleh and Douglas get one more year.  Mid-season, we thought we were a really good, young team on the rise.  It all fell apart, but I am not in favor of blowing it all up and starting again, which usually involves a step back as players may not fit a new coaches scheme or the GMs vision. 

The losing streak sucked.  But I still think this team is close, despite some of the worst QB play in the NFL and losing our best offensive playmaker to injury, we were close to the playoffs.  I am giving them another year, they need to figure out the QB position, and the OL needs a lot of work with only two returning starters under contract but I think we have pieces in place on both sides of the ball that can be teh core of a playoff team.

As to the OC, I would be happy to see us move on.  I think MLFs play design is fine, but I absolutely hate his approach in the red zone, and whether it is his fault or not, the QB he was hired to develop is not better at the end of season 2 than he was at the start of season 1.  I would love to see a guy like Frank Reich running this offense.

[jetsons]

If for whatever the reason the stars were to align & Payton would be willing to come here, I would release saleh in a blink. 

[jNYC1]

I'd keep this administration (GM, HC, and OC) in 2023.

Having said that, a few of my biggest concerns for each:

JD = Free agency talent evaluations

HC = Urgency

OC = System Flexibility (Marrying playcalls with what his players can actually execute, personnel usage)

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

32 minutes ago, Integrity28 said:

You created a thread titled “unemotional perspective” and proceeded to give us a wall of text, that is effectively opinions  informed by the emotional response to this season… like every then jabroni that starts redundant threads for attention.

I pointed it out.

It’s not the reply that is stupid.

 

You seem passive aggressive with your posts.  Did I hurt your feelings in the past?  

The objective with this post was to set up a framework for a good debate.  My interests are sharing analytics and engaging thoughtful discussion.   I’m not interested in emotional responses like he sucks or they all have to go.

If you want better reactions to your posts, try engaging with people or asking questions and lighten up on the snark.

I enjoy posting here and enjoy analytics & debate so will not lighten up on these types of posts.

Sorry for making you feel insecure in the past.  It’s not my long winded or daily posts that are upsetting you.  
 

I’ll now get back to the thoughtful discussion and let your ‘small ego’ have the last word.  
 

[dbatesman]

3 hours ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

If I’m Woody & JD, I want to see a plan that shows this is NOT the case.  If it’s the same old, I seriously consider moving on.

I think what's frustrating for many, including myself, is hearing Saleh give us platitudes about trusting the process, the strides we made, etc. Things had better be different behind closed doors.

[jNYC1]

Perhaps stating the obvious, but the number one thing that this regime has to figure out is QB, in order to grade out well on the questions posed.  I'd argue that there is favorable evidence to support yes for all three questions for this regime, and much of the evidence against is strongly linked to league worst QB play.

For example, MLF is good at scheming up open receivers.  If they were hit consistently, the rest of the offense would work better - including the run game and TDs scored.  Getting significant production out of Mike White, Josh Johnson, Chris Streveler, and Joe Flacco is favorable evidence for MLF - considering all of them are replacement level QBs or below at this point in their careers.  (I do think Mike White may still have some upside despite the poor performance with banged up ribs...)

The Bengal's and Zac Taylor were in the same spot before Joe Burrow...

 

[Integrity28]

52 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

You seem passive aggressive with your posts.  Did I hurt your feelings in the past?  

The objective with this post was to set up a framework for a good debate.  My interests are sharing analytics and engaging thoughtful discussion.   I’m not interested in emotional responses like he sucks or they all have to go.

If you want better reactions to your posts, try engaging with people or asking questions and lighten up on the snark.

I enjoy posting here and enjoy analytics & debate so will not lighten up on these types of posts.

Sorry for making you feel insecure in the past.  It’s not my long winded or daily posts that are upsetting you.  
 

I’ll now get back to the thoughtful discussion and let your ‘small ego’ have the last word.  
 

I’m just aggressive. Nothing passive about it.

You claimed it wasn’t emotional, I said it sure seems like it is. If you wanted to have healthy debate, you could have started with that. Instead you called my replies stupid. So, tell me in less than 500 words, how is that intellectual? 

 

[Flea Flicking Frank]

Im not emo at all

[68JET11]

I hate we have to keep talking about this because I'd love nothing more than a bit of continuity. That said, I'd let the staff walk this year for the simple reason that they don't seem to be a good enough staff to teach, or adjust on the fly based on opponent. Those are the 2 most important aspects of a staff IMO.

[Claymation]

1 hour ago, jNYC1 said:

I'd keep this administration (GM, HC, and OC) in 2023.

Having said that, a few of my biggest concerns for each:

JD = Free agency talent evaluations

HC = Urgency

OC = System Flexibility (Marrying playcalls with what his players can actually execute, personnel usage)

Could you elaborate on JD's Free Agency Evaluation

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

2 hours ago, dbatesman said:

I think what's frustrating for many, including myself, is hearing Saleh give us platitudes about trusting the process, the strides we made, etc. Things had better be different behind closed doors.

Yep, there really better be some adjustments to the original plan to improve this team, especially the offense.  The amount of issues extend beyond a typical phased process.  I get the 1 step back early in JD's own tenure when the Jets traded assets  for future picks.  This was not the case in 2022 when we had offseason additions like Garrett Wilson, Laken Tomlinson and our 2 TEs the entire season.  I get that Zach is clearly a big part of the problem but this was year 2 and he regressed.

I do worry we might hear some rumblings about a more divided locker room than is known at the moment.  Guys who have lost or are losing confidence in LaFleur (not just Zach).  The energy/fight on offense the last few games was AWFUL.

[CanadienJetsFan]

6 hours ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

A framework for discussion might be the following.  Interested in your answers…

1. Has the individual gotten better in his role?

2. Shown flexibility to course correct?

3. Leveraged competitive strengths?

 

Joe Douglas

1. Yes.

His BIG MISTAKES were his 1st draft, reaching for a boom/bust franchise QB in his 2nd draft & throwing him into a fire he wasn’t ready for, and signing Laken Tomlinson to a bad deal.

His BIG HITS mostly all came later:  AVT, DJ Reed, Sauce, Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall.  Might even throw in the promising combo of JJ/Clemons.

2. Yes & believe we’ll see that even more this off-season.

He moved on from both Gase & Sam (the latter in his failed pursuit of a franchise QB).  Invested in ways to reduce injuries (eg, new field on the horizon).  Upgraded positions like CB & RB that some would have been fine keeping as is.

I give him credit for drafting elite players at non premium positions like Guard and RB after failing when he took boom or bust LT Becton over the safer non premium RT Wirfs.

3. Yes.  His management of the salary cap, trading assets overvalued by others, & draft philosophy have been instrumental in creating a competitive roster.  Missing on Zach is infinitely easier to fix than missing on trading for Russell Wilson.  Cutting players like Davis & Lawson will  result in minimum dead cap space.  The exception here is Tomlinson, which was a big miss.

Overall:  I keep him- the trend is our friend.  He absolutely crushed the last draft and the acquisition of DJ.  He failed trying to get a high upside franchise QB with few options available. Mac Jones is not that guy, waiting for the 2023 draft offered few options and the trade market was too risky/expensive.  That’s all important context.  However, this will be an infinitely BIGGER miss if Fields turns into that guy.  Right now he’s a dynamic runner and decent enough passer.

Robert Saleh

1. Mixed bag

There were mid season signs the team was turning the corner and learning how to win.

That fell apart:  team reverted to showing it knew how to ‘lose games’, Saleh made questionable decisions (4th down, clock management), and the team came out flat & showed little fight in must win games.

2. At times, but often when it is too late.

The word stubborn comes to mind.  Deserves credit for the Sauce pick which didn’t necessarily fit his philosophy.  Also for benching Zach.

However- he’s been stubborn with his scheme, stuck with Zach too long in multiple games (NE, Jags) and has failed to fix killer penalties & other crucial game losing plays (dropped passes).

He also failed to reverse the trend of coming out flat in must win games.

3. No.

He deserves credit for getting players who fit his scheme, at least on the defensive side of the ball.

However, he has failed to show flexibility to adapt the schemes to his best players and to minimize weaknesses.

The Jets still don’t leverage the shut down abilities of their corners or blitz heavily when the opposing QB (like Geno) are at the bottom of the league against pressure but at the top of the league when not pressured.

Overall:  Over confidence and inflexibility are my biggest concerns, the inability to move on from bad hires or strategically use his chess pieces, even if it means adapting his schemes.

If I’m Woody & JD, I want to see a plan that shows this is NOT the case.  If it’s the same old, I seriously consider moving on.

Again, based on today’s presser, it seems like JD and Saleh are on a full PR blitz to show everyone ( especially Woody) that they are united , arms locked, ( his words) and moving forward TOGETHER…with Zach. I know, I know, they JD said Jamal was going to be a Jet for life prior to trading his ass.

But let’s say that really is the plan.
Are they seriously going back to Zach after he takes his off season sabbatical? What if he wets the bed again? So, what they go get a Minshew? Please. Are they willing to risk another season when the rest of the team seems ready to take off?
They can’t be serious.
 

[Larz]

I’m more or less resigned to the fate that in 12 months the talk about replacing all of them will be in earnest and that we all need to keep a sense of humor about it or it will drive us all against each other. 
 

So I give to you the 2023 New York jets 

[jNYC1]

1 hour ago, Claymation said:

Could you elaborate on JD's Free Agency Evaluation

I’m a huge JD fan.  Looking at 2022 -

DJ Reed is best FA acquisition.

Laken was a disastrous signing (due ~17 million in 2023).  Got terrible play for a big money player.

Whitehead was a bad signing (due ~10 million in 20223)

Letting Morgan Moses walk when he only signed for 5 million

TE signings (underwhelming despite money spent; Conklin in particular)

To a lesser extent Berrios overpay

Very few success stories from players signed in first month or two of free agency over last couple of years

[CanadienJetsFan]

20 minutes ago, Larz said:

I’m more or less resigned to the fate that in 12 months the talk about replacing all of them will be in earnest and that we all need to keep a sense of humor about it or it will drive us all against each other. 
 

So I give to you the 2023 New York jets 

I agree. 
If the plan is to a get a viable veteran QB, other than Garropolo ( where there’s a past connection) I see zero reason in keeping Saleh next year. Chances are he fails again and we’re back at square one AGAIN.

[Jet Nut]

6 hours ago, Lurker89 said:

^ THIS

Lafleurs scheme works in a vacuum, it's everything else about him that make him a horrible OC.

-Inability to adapt his scheme.

-refusing to scheme to player and personnel strentghs.

-sticking to a strict scheme and not exploiting defensive weaknesses on the opposing sideline.

The entire coaching staff is to rigid and it causes them to get outcoached by anyone with an ounce of flexibility and creativity.

Funny, after MWs early success people posted how it proved MLFs schemes and pla calling works.

Now we’re onto an opposite take completely 

[Claymation]

9 minutes ago, jNYC1 said:

I’m a huge JD fan.  Looking at 2022 -

DJ Reed is best FA acquisition.

Laken was a disastrous signing (due ~17 million in 2023).  Got terrible play for a big money player.

Whitehead was a bad signing (due ~10 million in 20223)

Letting Morgan Moses walk when he only signed for 5 million

TE signings (underwhelming despite money spent; Conklin in particular)

To a lesser extent Berrios overpay

Very few success stories from players signed in first month or two of free agency over last couple of years

DJ is great

Laken is bad.

Moses wanted to start.

Whitehead has been fine. he is 3rd on the team in tackles

Conklin has the 2nd most receptions and yards this year on the Jets.

JFM and Quincy have been steals. Herbig filled in nicely.

The Jets' problems are not with the defense, but solely on the offense. 

[56mehl56]

3 hours ago, Claymation said:

Can you give me an example of what MiLF is good at? 

Can you give me an example of what  Ulbrich was good at last season ? 

[football guy]

6 hours ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

3. Very little.

Garrett Wilson didn’t open the season as a starter.

Elijah Moore, for all his faults, has barely been used in space (a strength of his).  Little attempt to involve him in the O.

Tyler Conklin has not been schemed / motioned to get a LB 1:1 in coverage— a big strength of his last year.

Zack was rarely rolled out of the pocket by design, certainly not a part of his core play set.  Barely used his legs to run.

Uzomah has a 90% catch rate but has been underutilized in this phase.

It took half the season to get Bam Knight involved.  Instead, he was at risk being plucked from our practice squad.  
 

OVERALL:  It’s a clear move on for me.  Yes, we can blame it all on Zach or we can see the underlying red flags, trend lines, the stubbornness, the failure to inspire and call it a day. 
 

I'd add that Breece Hall had 6/7/8 carries in the first 3 games because Michael Carter was "the sparkplug that makes the offense go."

That's 7 carries per game for arguably the best offensive player on the team, who mind you clearly would've been the linchpin of the entire unit had he stayed healthy.

[Jet Nut]

6 hours ago, Integrity28 said:

I dunno, seems pretty emo to me.

[Claymation]

2 minutes ago, 56mehl56 said:

Can you give me an example of what  Ulbrich was good at last season ? 

If you can't answer the question then say just that, no reason to deflect.

[Mogglez]

Keep Joe Douglas, fire Saleh and MLF to the moon.

[jNYC1]

5 minutes ago, Claymation said:

DJ is great

Laken is bad.

Moses wanted to start.

Whitehead has been fine. he is 3rd on the team in tackles

Conklin has the 2nd most receptions and yards this year on the Jets.

JFM and Quincy have been steals. Herbig filled in nicely.

The Jets' problems are not with the defense, but solely on the offense. 

I’ll repeat - I like JD and want him to stay.

It’s order of bad…

Laken was a massive, disastrous signing.  Set the offense back - especially given all of the injuries. If he was even slightly below average this year it would have helped our offense tremendously.

Whitehead has decent tackling but is not a “good” safety and is a massive overpay.  Safety play has been a weak link in the defense.

Those two signings were important to get right and we missed.

Very few FA signings in the first two months of FA    have worked out.  First two months of FA are like the first 2 rounds of draft. Big investments

 

[Lurker89]

57 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Funny, after MWs early success people posted how it proved MLFs schemes and pla calling works.

Now we’re onto an opposite take completely 

For the record I was not one of "those" people.

I've always found MLFs need for his recievers to know all of the Oline nlocking schemes obtuse and his stubbornness in regard to "his" scheme arrogant.

 

Regarding MW I never thought he was anything of note but also thought he was more capable of executing a gameplan than ZW was/is. Not really a ringing endorsement.

For the record the scheme isnt bad but it being completely inflexible in his hands is the problem. If your scheme doesn't adapt to your personells strengths and your opponents weaknesses of what use is it?

[56mehl56]

1 minute ago, Claymation said:

If you can't answer the question then say just that, no reason to deflect.

My answer is he did some good things when he had the horses ( Oline/Hall) to support a run game.  He and the team floundered when that didn't happen consistently. 

A big issue has been adapting his system to his players strengths , I'll give him a pass till next season to see if things look differently when some pieces get back in the lineup. I used Ulbrich as the example because last year he was in the same boat  where he had a lot of rookie starters and was force feeding his system on them, this year with some added pieces(Reed, Sauce, Lawson, Kwon) he was able to do things a little differently. Its a risk that MLF won't change-up his schemes, but I feel its a bigger risk to blow it up and start yet again with new systems, blocking schemes and personnel. 

 

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

2 hours ago, Integrity28 said:

I’m just aggressive. Nothing passive about it.

You claimed it wasn’t emotional, I said it sure seems like it is. If you wanted to have healthy debate, you could have started with that. Instead you called my replies stupid. So, tell me in less than 500 words, how is that intellectual? 

 

I never used the word intellectual, I wrote an attempt to be unemotional.

As in:

1. Creating a logic based structure that doesn’t overly focus on the final handful of games AND that strips out pent up frustration of missing the playoffs for x years running

2. In doing so, attempting to be

    - Balanced (positives & negatives)

    - Provide important context (QB options)

    - Examine performance trend lines

    - Discussing what I believe are important personality attributes such as overconfidence, flexibility, leadership, ability to inspire

3. Showing supporting data

    - Trending performance stats

    - Observational insights most would agree on (coming out flat, continuing to make losing plays, showing little energy in crucial games)

4. Trying not to be too strong in my opinions.  By establishing such a framework, it’s easier to strip out the emotion.  Unemotional doesn’t mean factional .. I have plenty of unemotional feelings about lots of things without knowing all the behind the scenes facts

5. Lastly, being open to changing a prior opinion.  After this framework, I’m personally more on the fence about Saleh unless he shows flexibility to not just continue a stubborn process but adjust and adapt it based on tough lessons and things that aren’t working 

 

 

 

[Beerfish]

34 minutes ago, Claymation said:

DJ is great

Laken is bad.

Moses wanted to start.

Whitehead has been fine. he is 3rd on the team in tackles

Conklin has the 2nd most receptions and yards this year on the Jets.

JFM and Quincy have been steals. Herbig filled in nicely.

The Jets' problems are not with the defense, but solely on the offense. 

100% disagree, our all world defense generated 1 turnover and 0 ints in the 5 game slide.

Our all world defense got destroyed in the 1st two drives in a must win seattle game.

Our all world defense allowed just a heinous game losing td to 12th string TE in the detroit game.

Our all world defense took a mind numbing idiotic offside penalty when the other team was obviously just trying to draw us offside.

Both our linebackers are just awesome....as long as you run right at them, otherwise they are over matched in all other areas

Laughable to say JFM is a bargain, he's overrated as hell

[Integrity28]

4 hours ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

You seem passive aggressive with your posts.  Did I hurt your feelings in the past?  

The objective with this post was to set up a framework for a good debate.  My interests are sharing analytics and engaging thoughtful discussion.   I’m not interested in emotional responses like he sucks or they all have to go.

If you want better reactions to your posts, try engaging with people or asking questions and lighten up on the snark.

I enjoy posting here and enjoy analytics & debate so will not lighten up on these types of posts.

Sorry for making you feel insecure in the past.  It’s not my long winded or daily posts that are upsetting you.  
 

I’ll now get back to the thoughtful discussion and let your ‘small ego’ have the last word.  
 

 

29 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

I never used the word intellectual, I wrote an attempt to be unemotional.

As in:

1. Creating a logic based structure that doesn’t overly focus on the final handful of games AND that strips out pent up frustration of missing the playoffs for x years running

2. In doing so, attempting to be

    - Balanced (positives & negatives)

    - Provide important context (QB options)

    - Examine performance trend lines

    - Discussing what I believe are important personality attributes such as overconfidence, flexibility, leadership, ability to inspire

3. Showing supporting data

    - Trending performance stats

    - Observational insights most would agree on (coming out flat, continuing to make losing plays, showing little energy in crucial games)

4. Trying not to be too strong in my opinions.  By establishing such a framework, it’s easier to strip out the emotion.  Unemotional doesn’t mean factional .. I have plenty of unemotional feelings about lots of things without knowing all the behind the scenes facts

5. Lastly, being open to changing a prior opinion.  After this framework, I’m personally more on the fence about Saleh unless he shows flexibility to not just continue a stubborn process but adjust and adapt it based on tough lessons and things that aren’t working 

 

 

 

All these words…

Why won’t you simply acknowledge the notion that I disagreed with how you characterized your post, and you immediately diverted to insulting my replies as stupid… rather than offering the debate, analytics and thoughtful discussion you are trying to pretend you are all about?

I mean, now you’re splitting hairs over the word intellectual, which I fairly used to summarize the bold. Come on.

 

[Jet Nut]

1 hour ago, jNYC1 said:

Letting Morgan Moses walk when he only signed for 5 million

The way he’s played, than god we didn’t sign him. 

[Integrity28]

1 hour ago, jNYC1 said:

I’m a huge JD fan.  Looking at 2022 -

DJ Reed is best FA acquisition.

Laken was a disastrous signing (due ~17 million in 2023).  Got terrible play for a big money player.

Whitehead was a bad signing (due ~10 million in 20223)

Letting Morgan Moses walk when he only signed for 5 million

TE signings (underwhelming despite money spent; Conklin in particular)

To a lesser extent Berrios overpay

Very few success stories from players signed in first month or two of free agency over last couple of years

Good post.

Berrios cost us games. **** that guy. Morgan Moses leaving was shameful. Everything is spot on.

[Integrity28]

6 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

The way he’s played, than god we didn’t sign him. 

It’s all relative, I guess. I think he’s probably been better than done if what we’ve had.

[Jet Nut]

22 minutes ago, Integrity28 said:

It’s all relative, I guess. I think he’s probably been better than done if what we’ve had.

Could be but would he have been better than one armed Brown was my thinking.  Unfortunately for us he would have been better than Fant.

I don’t think we can judge the TE signings fairly.  As bad as the OL has been, along with QB play I think we may need a little more time.  also as good s the Jets entire secondary has been, not seeing the Whithead signing as a bad one. 
 

 

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

58 minutes ago, Integrity28 said:

 

All these words…

Why won’t you simply acknowledge the notion that I disagreed with how you characterized your post, and you immediately diverted to insulting my replies as stupid… rather than offering the debate, analytics and thoughtful discussion you are trying to pretend you are all about?

I mean, now you’re splitting hairs over the word intellectual, which I fairly used to summarize the bold. Come on.

 

Lol!  I don’t even know what we are debating anymore.  My last reply was to answer your question about how my original post was an attempt at being unemotional.

My use of the word stupid came after one of your trademark snarky responses.  Go back and read it.  

Im laughing because you seem to be very emotional about the whole thing ;).  Take a couple deep breaths for Christ sake.

Most of my posts are of the analytical variety.  I also ask a lot of questions because I’m interested why someone feels a certain way.  There is no pretending.

Go have a beer on me.  Let’s move on for the sake of all of us.

[varjet]

• I think JD has learned a lot and will get better, or at least be better than Maccagnan.
• I think Saleh and Ulbrich can figure out the defense and work with JD to find players.
• I don’t think any decent offensive player is coming here to be coached by MLF.  I think any QB or WR we draft will get ruined by our offensive staff.  I can only look at the evidence. 

So Saleh can stay if he presents a plan for better offensive coaching. 

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

5 minutes ago, varjet said:

• I think JD has learned a lot and will get better, or at least be better than Maccagnan.
• I think Saleh and Ulbrich can figure out the defense and work with JD to find players.
• I don’t think any decent offensive player is coming here to be coached by MLF.  I think any QB or WR we draft will get ruined by our offensive staff.  I can only look at the evidence. 

So Saleh can stay if he presents a plan for better offensive coaching. 

I know man — the exceptions have been Garrett Wilson and a few pretty good games from Mike White before the rib injury.  Add TEs to your list.  Conklin and Uzomah are most likely better than our current impressions of them.  Even Connor McGovern who I think has been underrated has been horrible the last few games.  His pressures allowed rate is now top 5 in the league amongst Centers.