McShay has the Jets taking Jones at 13

[Claymation]

 

13. New York Jets

Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia

The Jets' 2022 rookie class produced both the offensive (Garrett Wilson) and defensive (Sauce Gardner) Rookie of the Year. Can GM Joe Douglas hit on a first-rounder again, this time outside the top 10?

The Jets were middle of the pack in sacks allowed (42, 19th) and pass block win rate (57.1%, 21st) last season. But consider that George Fant is hitting free agency, Duane Brown will be 38 years old, Alijah Vera-Tucker is more of a guard and returning from a triceps injury and Mekhi Becton has played one game since his 2020 rookie year. If New York does find a way to bring in Aaron Rodgers or another veteran QB, it will need to protect him. Jones didn't allow a single sack over 15 starts last year, showcasing the ability to stall both speed and power off the edge.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/draft2023/insider/story/_/id/35608911/2023-nfl-mock-draft-todd-mcshay-post-super-bowl-predictions-31-first-round-picks-quarterback-landing-spots-projected-trade

[derp]

Tackle situation will be interesting. This is a pretty thin tackle class - a clear top 2-3 (depending on whether Skoronski is considered a guard or tackle by teams), a big drop off after to day two guys, and a couple of the better ones there are gigantic right tackles.

If a team wants a tackle as things stand now, it’s pretty easy to identify the Jets as a threat to take one and leapfrog them.

Between that and the reasonably likely scenario that the Jets don’t even have a first round pick this year, I think it’s likely they’re digging into how they can grab a guy they like so he can develop behind Brown for a year. Then if they happen to be able to take a guy like Jones at 13 it’s a pleasant surprise.

That said the way Douglas operates he certainly may try to keep 13 in a trade and move up to take a tackle. 

[nj meadowlands]

If we have a first round pick, that would be just fine.  

If we trade for Rodgers, I'm hopeful any first round comp wouldn't be until 2024.

If we trade for Lamar, sayonara pick 13

[JustInFudge]

I can dig it.  Jones is a full blown freak.  Tristan Wirfs like athlete.  Big program Championship program, blocking for a shrimpy lil dude.  Works for me.

[32EBoozer]

39 minutes ago, JiFields said:

I can dig it.  Jones is a full blown freak.  Tristan Wirfs like athlete.  Big program Championship program, blocking for a shrimpy lil dude.  Works for me.

Becton and Brown will be FA after next year. Grab him!

[Green Ghost]

@Lith what can you tell us about this guy?

[bonkertons]

I wouldn't complain with an OT at 13.  It's boring but it obviously makes sense.  I think my preference at the moment would be Branch at 13, Schmitz or Wypler at 43(someone who can step in and start at C from day one), and then see who drops to the 3rd.  If Rashee Rice is there or Daiyan Henley, they would be my guys.  I think you can wait on an OT in the 4th or 5th - start them out as OG depth in year one and develop them to replace Becton in '24 if need be.  Go get McGlinchey for your RT spot.

 

I just like the idea of continuing to build an elite secondary to deal with the ridiculous amount of elite QBs we have in the AFC.  I think you can do that while still greatly improving the OL.  Maybe where I differ with everyone else is I still want to give Becton his last shot.  I'd just make sure he has a good amount of depth behind him(Brown, a guy like Ogbuehi, plus this 4th or 5th rounder we draft).  

 

...but yeah, if it's Jones or Johnson or Skoronski, I won't complain.

[derp]

17 minutes ago, bonkertons said:

I wouldn't complain with an OT at 13.  It's boring but it obviously makes sense.  I think my preference at the moment would be Branch at 13, Schmitz or Wypler at 43(someone who can step in and start at C from day one), and then see who drops to the 3rd.  If Rashee Rice is there or Daiyan Henley, they would be my guys.  I think you can wait on an OT in the 4th or 5th - start them out as OG depth in year one and develop them to replace Becton in '24 if need be.  Go get McGlinchey for your RT spot.

 

I just like the idea of continuing to build an elite secondary to deal with the ridiculous amount of elite QBs we have in the AFC.  I think you can do that while still greatly improving the OL.  Maybe where I differ with everyone else is I still want to give Becton his last shot.  I'd just make sure he has a good amount of depth behind him(Brown, a guy like Ogbuehi, plus this 4th or 5th rounder we draft).  

 

...but yeah, if it's Jones or Johnson or Skoronski, I won't complain.

Regarding Becton, I think he's going to get a shot. That said, he really can't be relied upon this season for anything, I think that much is pretty clear. And if he has a monster season this year in what is effectively a contract year (doubt they pick up his option) - how do you deal with him going forward? I can't imagine he's someone anyone would be comfortable giving a long term deal with significant guarantees.

All that to say if they can't really count on him this year and it's not clear they'll be able to count on him after this year, still makes sense to take a shot at tackle. In my opinion the best case is he has a good year and they can tag and trade him or something. But, barring a major change in maturity and priorities that we can't see - and it's possible that's happened as he's become a father - I think him being a long term answer at LT is a tough sell.

I think Branch is going to be a really good player. But for a team that's got question marks at premium positions - QB, WR, both tackle spots - and is always willing to beef up on the DL, it just seems like such a luxury pick.

Plus at this point if the defense improves it's still not addressing the deep underlying issue with this roster which is the offense. Defense is good enough to win a title. Offense can't get the team into the playoffs. A QB would help but there's work to be done beyond that.

[chirorob]

1 hour ago, bonkertons said:

I wouldn't complain with an OT at 13.  It's boring but it obviously makes sense.  I think my preference at the moment would be Branch at 13, Schmitz or Wypler at 43(someone who can step in and start at C from day one), and then see who drops to the 3rd.  If Rashee Rice is there or Daiyan Henley, they would be my guys.  I think you can wait on an OT in the 4th or 5th - start them out as OG depth in year one and develop them to replace Becton in '24 if need be.  Go get McGlinchey for your RT spot.

 

...but yeah, if it's Jones or Johnson or Skoronski, I won't complain.

I agree on giving Becton another shot, but fact is you'll need a second tackle within a year no matter what, and possibly 2.

[bonkertons]

7 minutes ago, chirorob said:

I agree on giving Becton another shot, but fact is you'll need a second tackle within a year no matter what, and possibly 2.

Yeah I mean like I said, I'd draft a guy later who can potentially step in after next season.  Or you could always spend a high pick once that spot opens up.  Whoever you draft in the 1st or 2nd should most likely be starting from day one.  I don't have a problem with going that route.  There's some decent OT prospects that should be available late who you could potentially develop into starters in a year.  Guys like Freeland, Gray, Kingston, Richards.  There will be guys available in the 5th or 6th.  Just comes down to picking the right guy, which you'd hope Joe D would be able to do - especially with OL prospects.  

 

But yeah, that would be my strategy.  Take Branch if he's there, then Schmitz in the 2nd, and best available WR or LB in the 3rd; OR if Branch isn't there, trade down from 13(for example let's say the Giants want to move up for one of the top WR - get picks 25, 57, and their 2nd next year.  Go with something like Simpson in the 1st, Schmitz and Rice in the 2nd, and then best available safety in the 3rd.  Take your OT project in the 5th or 6th. 

[Lith]

[mention=28279]Lith[/mention] what can you tell us about this guy?

Would be a great pick for us. Started two years at LT.Allowed two sacks last year.None this year. Better pass blocker than run blocker. I would be very happy with Jones at 13.

[David Harris]

20 minutes ago, bonkertons said:

Yeah I mean like I said, I'd draft a guy later who can potentially step in after next season.  Or you could always spend a high pick once that spot opens up.  Whoever you draft in the 1st or 2nd should most likely be starting from day one.  I don't have a problem with going that route.  There's some decent OT prospects that should be available late who you could potentially develop into starters in a year.  Guys like Freeland, Gray, Kingston, Richards.  There will be guys available in the 5th or 6th.  Just comes down to picking the right guy, which you'd hope Joe D would be able to do - especially with OL prospects.  

 

But yeah, that would be my strategy.  Take Branch if he's there, then Schmitz in the 2nd, and best available WR or LB in the 3rd; OR if Branch isn't there, trade down from 13(for example let's say the Giants want to move up for one of the top WR - get picks 25, 57, and their 2nd next year.  Go with something like Simpson in the 1st, Schmitz and Rice in the 2nd, and then best available safety in the 3rd.  Take your OT project in the 5th or 6th. 

Branch is super talented but feels like a luxury pick.  In your scenario who are the starting two tackles next season?

I think Becton surprises and gets on track, but certainly can't count on it.  Can't count on Duane Brown's age/retirement status/shoulder.  Can't count on Max Mitchell who didn't look great.

Assuming we have a ready to win vet playing QB, I think you have to draft a Tackle in the first or second.

[Jimmy 2 Times]

2023- T, DT, C 

2024- WR, Edge, LB

2025-Edge, T, DT 

Trenches and receivers every year! 

[Barry McCockinner]

I really like Broderick - would be happy w/this pick.

[Beerfish]

Chad Reuter has us taking Richardson.    ?

[jetstream23]

Is he really going to be there at 13?

[bonkertons]

11 hours ago, David Harris said:

Branch is super talented but feels like a luxury pick.  In your scenario who are the starting two tackles next season?

I think Becton surprises and gets on track, but certainly can't count on it.  Can't count on Duane Brown's age/retirement status/shoulder.  Can't count on Max Mitchell who didn't look great.

Assuming we have a ready to win vet playing QB, I think you have to draft a Tackle in the first or second.

Oh for sure it's a luxury pick.  The intention would be to build an elite secondary all around.  Our way of building a team to contend with the elite QBs of the AFC.  

 

My OT's would be Becton on the left and a UFA like McGlinchey on the right.  You'll need some decent depth behind Becton obviously if you're slotting him in as the starter, so overall I think my OL would look like this next year:

 

LT: Becton; Brown; Ogbuehi(or similar signing); 4th or 5th rounder

LG: AVT or Tomlinson; 4th or 5th rounder (maybe a Levin-type signing)

C : Schmitz; cheap UFA or Herbig?  Did we have a backup C this year?  I honestly don't know...

RG: Tomlinson or AVT; Herbig

RT: McGlinchey; Mitchell

 

You're basically giving Becton one last year to prove he can stay on the field.  If not, Brown steps in, you have a little bit of depth behind him, and then next year you look to draft your replacement(or the kid you drafted in the 4th or 5th this year emerges as a candidate, OR Mitchell does).

 

Again though I wouldn't complain about taking an OT in the 1st.  It's a safe move.  Even if Becton is healthy you could then just start your pick out at OG(Tomlinson to the bench), so it's not like his playing time revolves solely around Becton's health.  I personally would just rather go elsewhere and wait to spend that high pick on an OT until next year, if it's still a need.  Whether it's Branch or a WR or a trade down for a LB or WR, any of those routes would appeal to me more I think.  

[derp]

7 hours ago, bonkertons said:

Oh for sure it's a luxury pick.  The intention would be to build an elite secondary all around.  Our way of building a team to contend with the elite QBs of the AFC.  

 

My OT's would be Becton on the left and a UFA like McGlinchey on the right.  You'll need some decent depth behind Becton obviously if you're slotting him in as the starter, so overall I think my OL would look like this next year:

 

LT: Becton; Brown; Ogbuehi(or similar signing); 4th or 5th rounder

LG: AVT or Tomlinson; 4th or 5th rounder (maybe a Levin-type signing)

C : Schmitz; cheap UFA or Herbig?  Did we have a backup C this year?  I honestly don't know...

RG: Tomlinson or AVT; Herbig

RT: McGlinchey; Mitchell

 

You're basically giving Becton one last year to prove he can stay on the field.  If not, Brown steps in, you have a little bit of depth behind him, and then next year you look to draft your replacement(or the kid you drafted in the 4th or 5th this year emerges as a candidate, OR Mitchell does).

 

Again though I wouldn't complain about taking an OT in the 1st.  It's a safe move.  Even if Becton is healthy you could then just start your pick out at OG(Tomlinson to the bench), so it's not like his playing time revolves solely around Becton's health.  I personally would just rather go elsewhere and wait to spend that high pick on an OT until next year, if it's still a need.  Whether it's Branch or a WR or a trade down for a LB or WR, any of those routes would appeal to me more I think.  

What do you do with Becton contractually if he has a good year and becomes a UFA? Super messy figuring out what happens with him. I guess maybe they can tag.

I think part of the interest in going LT this year is that it probably helps this year's team and if you think there's not really much you can do with Becton after this season then it's almost definitely a need next year no matter what you do.

I think with Becton and Brown there's an argument you can try and draft and develop a guy, but it's really hard to find a starting LT outside the first round.

[bonkertons]

4 minutes ago, derp said:

What do you do with Becton contractually if he has a good year and becomes a UFA? Super messy figuring out what happens with him. I guess maybe they can tag.

I think part of the interest in going LT this year is that it probably helps this year's team and if you think there's not really much you can do with Becton after this season then it's almost definitely a need next year no matter what you do.

I think with Becton and Brown there's an argument you can try and draft and develop a guy, but it's really hard to find a starting LT outside the first round.

Harder than finding one in the 1st for sure, but it IS possible and you'd hope if anyone could find one, it would be Douglas.  Mitchell so far seems like a pretty good find in the 3rd round.  Time will tell what his ceiling will be, but for a 3rd round rookie he played pretty well last year when healthy.  

 

As far as what to do with Becton next year, I think you cross that bridge when the time comes.  With Becton it's always seemed to be a matter of him committing to his health and taking his weight seriously.  If he proves he can do that for one year, I think it will mean he has turned a corner.  If you're not sold though, then yes, you can franchise for a year.  I don't think that would kill us, especially with all the cap set to come off that offseason, and guys like Tomlinson, JFM, potentially Mosley(assuming he's restructured this year), Uzomah and/or Conklin being cut candidates.  

 

Obviously drafting an OT helps us immediately, even if Becton is healthy and ends up getting extended, I just think you could pass on that spot for a year if you really fall in love with one of these other guys in the 1st, or if the opportunity to trade down and add another 2nd is there.  Plus if it plays out where you take one of the top C's in the 2nd, you'll already have a rookie starting on that line.  Like I said I wouldn't hate it if it were to happen, and I fully expect us to go OT, I just think I'd look elsewhere in the 1st while replacing McGovern in the 2nd.  Pick up a project OT later on.  That would be my play. 

[derp]

47 minutes ago, bonkertons said:

Harder than finding one in the 1st for sure, but it IS possible and you'd hope if anyone could find one, it would be Douglas.  Mitchell so far seems like a pretty good find in the 3rd round.  Time will tell what his ceiling will be, but for a 3rd round rookie he played pretty well last year when healthy.  

 

As far as what to do with Becton next year, I think you cross that bridge when the time comes.  With Becton it's always seemed to be a matter of him committing to his health and taking his weight seriously.  If he proves he can do that for one year, I think it will mean he has turned a corner.  If you're not sold though, then yes, you can franchise for a year.  I don't think that would kill us, especially with all the cap set to come off that offseason, and guys like Tomlinson, JFM, potentially Mosley(assuming he's restructured this year), Uzomah and/or Conklin being cut candidates.  

 

Obviously drafting an OT helps us immediately, even if Becton is healthy and ends up getting extended, I just think you could pass on that spot for a year if you really fall in love with one of these other guys in the 1st, or if the opportunity to trade down and add another 2nd is there.  Plus if it plays out where you take one of the top C's in the 2nd, you'll already have a rookie starting on that line.  Like I said I wouldn't hate it if it were to happen, and I fully expect us to go OT, I just think I'd look elsewhere in the 1st while replacing McGovern in the 2nd.  Pick up a project OT later on.  That would be my play. 

You’d hope it would be Douglas, except he’s kind of insisted on drafting OL in the first. Only two picks in three years on the OL outside the first round and they’ve had serious needs there for the last couple years. Mitchell was fine, I don’t know if I’d go so far as to call him a good find. It’s been three years and Douglas essentially has 0 track record of finding starting caliber OL outside the first round or FA despite spending some fourth round picks and bringing in several UDFA’s.

Franchising Becton would be fine, I just think it’s hard to picture him as a long term option that the staff would have confidence in. Kind of always need to have a backup around. Even his good rookie year he was hurt a lot.

Honestly I think it’s likely the first round guys are gone at 13 anyway, and I wouldn’t mind a trade down. And I think it’s pretty straightforward to sell another premium position over OT, even if one of those guys is there. But I think if Jones or Johnson is there and the conversation is about linebacker, safety, tight end…I just don’t think it’s a prudent use of draft capital. Those guys can be found outside the first round or relatively affordably in free agency way, way more easily than a legitimate left tackle can be.

[bonkertons]

21 minutes ago, derp said:

You’d hope it would be Douglas, except he’s kind of insisted on drafting OL in the first. Only two picks in three years on the OL outside the first round and they’ve had serious needs there for the last couple years. Mitchell was fine, I don’t know if I’d go so far as to call him a good find. It’s been three years and Douglas essentially has 0 track record of finding starting caliber OL outside the first round or FA despite spending some fourth round picks and bringing in several UDFA’s.

Franchising Becton would be fine, I just think it’s hard to picture him as a long term option that the staff would have confidence in. Kind of always need to have a backup around. Even his good rookie year he was hurt a lot.

Honestly I think it’s likely the first round guys are gone at 13 anyway, and I wouldn’t mind a trade down. And I think it’s pretty straightforward to sell another premium position over OT, even if one of those guys is there. But I think if Jones or Johnson is there and the conversation is about linebacker, safety, tight end…I just don’t think it’s a prudent use of draft capital. Those guys can be found outside the first round or relatively affordably in free agency way, way more easily than a legitimate left tackle can be.

I only remember one other post-1st OL pick which was a flop.  As far as Mitchell goes, I don't know.  Finding a kid in the 3rd who can step in at OT and give you reliable play is a pretty good find IMO.  Especially when you assume most OL you draft in the 3rd and beyond are usually considered "developmental" picks.  At the very least if they see time early, it's usually at OG and then transitioning to OT.  But yeah, not to say whoever Douglas finds outside of the first 2 rounds will be a guaranteed stud, but if I were to trust any GM to be able to find one, it would be JD.

 

With Becton it's hard to gauge.  Guys around him will probably have a better idea of whether he's really turned a corner mentally based on how he carries himself and his attitude.  I think after next season, if he stays healthy, they'll have a pretty good idea of whether or not they can rely on him going forward.  If they don't, you franchise and buy yourself another year.  No matter what though, if he stays healthy and looks great, you can't just let him walk.  I'd rather franchise and sell him off to a team desperate for a quality OT.  At that point he'll still only be 24.  If he's coming off a healthy productive season, you know there will be teams interested and willing to roll the dice on his health.  Personally though, I'd rather we were the ones rolling the dice.  A healthy Becton solves a massive need for us long-term.  

[David Harris]

9 hours ago, bonkertons said:

Oh for sure it's a luxury pick.  The intention would be to build an elite secondary all around.  Our way of building a team to contend with the elite QBs of the AFC.  

 

My OT's would be Becton on the left and a UFA like McGlinchey on the right.  You'll need some decent depth behind Becton obviously if you're slotting him in as the starter, so overall I think my OL would look like this next year:

 

LT: Becton; Brown; Ogbuehi(or similar signing); 4th or 5th rounder

LG: AVT or Tomlinson; 4th or 5th rounder (maybe a Levin-type signing)

C : Schmitz; cheap UFA or Herbig?  Did we have a backup C this year?  I honestly don't know...

RG: Tomlinson or AVT; Herbig

RT: McGlinchey; Mitchell

 

You're basically giving Becton one last year to prove he can stay on the field.  If not, Brown steps in, you have a little bit of depth behind him, and then next year you look to draft your replacement(or the kid you drafted in the 4th or 5th this year emerges as a candidate, OR Mitchell does).

 

Again though I wouldn't complain about taking an OT in the 1st.  It's a safe move.  Even if Becton is healthy you could then just start your pick out at OG(Tomlinson to the bench), so it's not like his playing time revolves solely around Becton's health.  I personally would just rather go elsewhere and wait to spend that high pick on an OT until next year, if it's still a need.  Whether it's Branch or a WR or a trade down for a LB or WR, any of those routes would appeal to me more I think.  

Mcglinchly would be great but I doubt we have the dollars if we sign Rodgers or any vet QB. 
 

And I’d imagine any vet QB will request upgrades on the OL and without cap space that’s round 1 or 2 IMO.

Will be an interesting couple of months either way.  I hope Carr figures things out soon.

[OilfieldJet]

On 2/15/2023 at 10:56 AM, bonkertons said:

I wouldn't complain with an OT at 13.  It's boring but it obviously makes sense.  I think my preference at the moment would be Branch at 13, Schmitz or Wypler at 43(someone who can step in and start at C from day one), and then see who drops to the 3rd.  If Rashee Rice is there or Daiyan Henley, they would be my guys.  I think you can wait on an OT in the 4th or 5th - start them out as OG depth in year one and develop them to replace Becton in '24 if need be.  Go get McGlinchey for your RT spot.

 

I just like the idea of continuing to build an elite secondary to deal with the ridiculous amount of elite QBs we have in the AFC.  I think you can do that while still greatly improving the OL.  Maybe where I differ with everyone else is I still want to give Becton his last shot.  I'd just make sure he has a good amount of depth behind him(Brown, a guy like Ogbuehi, plus this 4th or 5th rounder we draft).  

 

...but yeah, if it's Jones or Johnson or Skoronski, I won't complain.

A safety?

[bonkertons]

1 hour ago, OilfieldJet said:

A safety?

THE safety

[Rich Thornburgh]

Wide Receiver about to become a bigger problem than offensive line

[Doggin94it]

On 2/15/2023 at 10:39 PM, jetstream23 said:

Is he really going to be there at 13?

Maybe.

Guys definitely going ahead of him:

Stroud. Young. Anderson. Carter. Tyree Wilson. Paris Johnson. That's 6.

Guys who will very probably go ahead of him:

Levis. Richardson. Myles Murphy. Christian Gonzalez. That's another 4. 10 total.

That leaves a group of guys like Skoronski, Kancey, Porter, Meyer, and Jones vying for the next group of spots.

Of course, all of that could change after the combine, but I'd say it's reasonably possible he'd be there