Jason@OTC: Brilliant Breakdown of Trade Implications From GB & Jets Perspective

[32EBoozer]

I wish I could manipulate Excel spreadsheets the way he does. 10 minutes long but WOW! This proves beyond a doubt that Jets have the most leverage.

The summary:

GB in a world of hurt if he isn’t traded this year, especially with the AR bridge ? burned behind them. Cap implications crippling.

Jets will be holding a lot of Dead Cap space in those ‘25 & ‘26 void years. JD/Woody better hope Salary Cap keeps going up. 
 

https://overthecap.com/explaining-the-salary-cap-implications-of-trading-aaron-rodgers

[rangerous]

9 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

I wish I could manipulate Excel spreadsheets the way he does. 10 minutes long but WOW! This proves beyond a doubt that Jets have the most leverage.

The summary:

GB in a world of hurt if he isn’t traded this year, especially with the AR bridge ? burned behind them. Cap implications crippling.

Jets will be holding a lot of Dead Cap space in those ‘25 & ‘26 void years. JD/Woody better hope Salary Cap keeps going up. 
 

https://overthecap.com/explaining-the-salary-cap-implications-of-trading-aaron-rodgers

Of course that all depends on when Rodgers actually does leave the game. Who knows if he’s going to play two seasons or even more. Could be he likes the jets so much he wants to play another couple of years. So maybe there’s a chance that those dead money years become live money.

[Biggs]

Green Bays last contract with Rodgers was designed to offload him this year.  The timetable where the pressure mounts on them is after June 1.  The Jets are making this deal and accepting a lot of dead cap space for a 1 year deal.  The Jets want him in the building ASAP.   It's in both teams interest to make a deal.  The timelines of pressure on each team is different. 

[Barry McCockinner]

15 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

I wish I could manipulate Excel spreadsheets the way he does. 10 minutes long but WOW! This proves beyond a doubt that Jets have the most leverage.

The summary:

GB in a world of hurt if he isn’t traded this year, especially with the AR bridge ? burned behind them. Cap implications crippling.

Jets will be holding a lot of Dead Cap space in those ‘25 & ‘26 void years. JD/Woody better hope Salary Cap keeps going up. 
 

https://overthecap.com/explaining-the-salary-cap-implications-of-trading-aaron-rodgers

[32EBoozer]

1 minute ago, rangerous said:

Of course that all depends on when Rodgers actually does leave the game. Who knows if he’s going to play two seasons or even more. Could be he likes the jets so much he wants to play another couple of years. So maybe there’s a chance that those dead money years become live money.

If he wants to continue to be a Jet in ‘25 it will be due to him & the team having success. He would not play for $20mil. New contract would need to be drawn up.

[Bobby816]

2 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

If he wants to continue to be a Jet in ‘25 it will be due to him & the team having success. He would not play for $20mil. New contract would need to be drawn up.

He was 90% retired a month ago. Pretty sure we’d be lucky to get 2 years out of him. 3 or 4 is out if the picture.

[bla bla bla]

2 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

If he wants to continue to be a Jet in ‘25 it will be due to him & the team having success. He would not play for $20mil. New contract would need to be drawn up.

Yea, if the trend continues, I could see the Jets adding a $30m bonus after 2 years if he wants to continue. 

2023 $60m bonus spread over 4 years

2024 $45m bonus spread over 3 years

2025 $30m bonus spread over 2 years? That seems like it may make sense, you take on $15m in dead cap for each year Rodgers plays

[jbt]

the salary cap goes up every year and with the new TV/streaming contracts probably even more than usual.  that will not be a problem

[bla bla bla]

2 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

He was 90% retired a month ago. Pretty sure we’d be lucky to get 2 years out of him. 3 or 4 is out if the picture.

I don't know how much I'd read into the 90% retired comment. That sounds like something he's using for motivation.

[32EBoozer]

14 minutes ago, bla bla bla said:

I don't know how much I'd read into the 90% retired comment. That sounds like something he's using for motivation.

Or…. Retribution towards GB GM. 

Basically, a big  “FU” in front of the entire GB fan base.

[BigRy56]

If Woody was willing to cut the check at the time, couldn’t we just convert AR12’s 25/26 cap number to a bonus and eliminate it? His cap hit those years after he retires seem ridiculous and the Jets should find a way to get out of them

[sciond]

This is exactly why I have been saying trading for him sets  the Jets back 5-6 years and I don't him, never have.  Facts don't care about feelings.

[Bobby816]

27 minutes ago, bla bla bla said:

I don't know how much I'd read into the 90% retired comment. That sounds like something he's using for motivation.

Well we know he’s a year to year guy. He’s been that way with GB for several years. So it’d be no different with us.

[Barry McCockinner]

1 minute ago, Bobby816 said:

Well we know he’s a year to year guy. He’s been that way with GB for several years. So it’d be no different with us.

playing for the Jets has often been a source of reinvigoration.

[FidelioJet]

This can go as far as the draft but will not go any further.  May end up being a draft day trade, but it actually hurts GB if they wait any longer than the draft - and adds no additional leverage.

So sit back as it might take another 6 weeks, but won't any longer.

[Bobby816]

3 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

playing for the Jets has often been a source of reinvigoration.

Very well could. And I hope it would. I’m just trying to read between the lines. He was 90% retired a month ago. Also said in that interview that when he decided to play last year that the hope obviously was to win a SB and leave after that. So if we were to win a SB next year. I’d imagine he’s done. But if that were the end result it would be totally worth it for us. The question is…. Is if we let’s say lose in the AFCCG in a relatively close game to let’s say KC. Will he have that hunger to come back and try again knowing how close we were? Or does he hang it up? No one knows.

[rangerous]

39 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

He was 90% retired a month ago. Pretty sure we’d be lucky to get 2 years out of him. 3 or 4 is out if the picture.

Granted two seasons is what the jets should expect but you never know. Brady isn’t the only qb to play into his forties. I’m thinking most of the top guys want to keep going but eventually their bodies fail them.

[JoJoTownsell1]

46 minutes ago, Biggs said:

Green Bays last contract with Rodgers was designed to offload him this year.  The timetable where the pressure mounts on them is after June 1.  The Jets are making this deal and accepting a lot of dead cap space for a 1 year deal.  The Jets want him in the building ASAP.   It's in both teams interest to make a deal.  The timelines of pressure on each team is different. 

I don't see the rush to bring him in.  

He's already said where he wants to go and the packers HAVE to trade him so he'll be here. No need to give up more draft capital to get him in the room in March.  

JD needs to win this game of chicken and not back down. Especially in the modern sports world where a team holding a HOF veteran player hostage doesn't look great especially when you're trying to sign free agents. 

[Biggs]

1 minute ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

I don't see the rush to bring him in.  

He's already said where he wants to go and the packers HAVE to trade him so he'll be here. No need to give up more draft capital to get him in the room in March.  

JD needs to win this game of chicken and not back down. Especially in the modern sports world where a team holding a HOF veteran player hostage doesn't look great especially when you're trying to sign free agents. 

This is a run for a SB this year.  There is urgency to get him in and on board ASAP.  

[32EBoozer]

26 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

I don't see the rush to bring him in.  

He's already said where he wants to go and the packers HAVE to trade him so he'll be here. No need to give up more draft capital to get him in the room in March.  

JD needs to win this game of chicken and not back down. Especially in the modern sports world where a team holding a HOF veteran player hostage doesn't look great especially when you're trying to sign free agents. 

Yeah, I don’t get folks wanting to undermine our leverage , thereby increasing Packers leverage. Rodgers wants to play for the Jets and we want him. GB is the one backed into a corner by their own stupidity…. why throw them a lifeline on their terms?

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, rangerous said:

Of course that all depends on when Rodgers actually does leave the game. Who knows if he’s going to play two seasons or even more. Could be he likes the jets so much he wants to play another couple of years. So maybe there’s a chance that those dead money years become live money.

If he sticks around thru 2026 he'll be guaranteed the chance to face the Packers in the regular season.  Just sayin'.

[C Mart]

47 minutes ago, sciond said:

This is exactly why I have been saying trading for him sets  the Jets back 5-6 years and I don't him, never have.  Facts don't care about feelings.

How can you say that before he’s taken 1 snap?

Lets worry about “any setting Jets back 5-6 years” down the road. 

It’s not like the past 10+ yrs has been a ball of fun. 

[Bobby816]

4 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

Yeah, I don’t get folks wanting to undermine our leverage , thereby increasing Packers leverage. Rodgers wants to play for the Jets and we want him. GB is the one backed into a corner by their own stupidity…. why throw them a lifeline on their terms?

I like the philosophy of our side staying quiet like they have. It’s GB leaking things. AR told us a week ago he wanted to play for us. And nothing from our side still. JD keeping our boys in line.

 

Let AR go on McAfee each week and just kind of respectfully bash GB for not getting the trade done yet. Each week that passes. Makes GB look worse. Jets don’t change their approach and stay out of it. Jets let GB keep looking bad. Can only help us.

 

JD and them don’t listen to Scheffter bashing things. I would say they’re calm and collected. But I know they want the deal done. So they’re being patient and thinking clearly

[Phillyjet]

Herein lies the problem with the GB trade.  We need our picks over the next couple of years to have rookies on cheap contracts.  In 2024 and 2025, he'll count at least $30 million against the cap.  Even though it's a dead cap charge whether he is on the team or off, we're still at a disadvantage carrying over $30 million in dead money in the out years of his contract.  Which means we hare strapped in FA.  Even if the cap goes up, other teams have a $30 million advantage to start, which means they'll outbid us.  Get ready for a couple of years of possible comp picks and boring FA periods.  We need our picks, so the trade compensation here is very relevant. 

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

Let’s simplify.  Assuming the Jets got Rodgers’ commitment to play 2 years, this is essentially a 2 year deal worth just shy of $110M or $55M per year.

If you look at the annual total pay (incl pro-rated bonus) for the top veteran QBs in 2023 & 2024, Rodgers would rank #1.

Due to the structure of his contract, the Jets benefit from relatively low cap hits the first 2 years at $16M and $32M that then balloons up to slightly more than $60M (dead money) in year 3 after Rodgers retires and is no longer on the team.

But in all reality, the Jets are ‘overpaying’ for 2 years of service by about $20M total (2023 & 2024 total annual pay for a top tier vet QB might be closer to $45M per year).  Note that a lot of the average annual pay we hear about includes much larger numbers later in the contract (eg, Mahomes, Allen, Watson).

The Jets are rightfully calling out (1) this $20M above market rate AND (2) the potential risk that Rodgers retires after year 1 where he would effectively be paid $60M for 1 year, $15M above market.

Absent Rodgers agreeing to a restructure himself, the trade compensation should therefore be less than if he was otherwise paid at market and was a guarantee to play 2 years.

That’s why there has been this talk of increasing the trade comp IF GB is willing to eat some of Rodgers (over market) cap.

But in my opinion, even if they do, you still don’t trade the 13th pick this year for someone who might only play 1 year even if he says today he is going to play 2 years.  Not sure you do it even if there was a guarantee he plays for 2.

The sweetener should be in 2024 that rises to a first round pick only if Rodgers performs and leads us to glory.

[greenwichjetfan]

Couple of things that I’ve been wondering/thinking for the last few days. Fair warning - I haven’t really read any of the other threads and haven’t had a chance to watch Jason’s breakdown yet (I’m an excel geek myself - best business invention ever, so I’m excited).

1) If GB doesn’t trade him, they’re left with him either retiring (kills their cap the next few years), or screwing up any chance of them determining their future with Jordan Love. Love’s fifth year option needs to be exercised by May 1st, and Rodgers can tell GB that if they don’t trade him before May 31st, he is going to retire and cripple GB’s cap. I don’t see any scenario where GB keeps him past May 31st.

2) If GB wants draft picks this year, they’ll need to trade prior to the draft, which also introduces an additional time constraint. I haven’t thought this through yet, but I believe it would be in GB’s best interest to trade now so that they can get a pick this year and also get a pick with an escalator next year. In fact, in this scenario, I actually think the Jets have leverage to wait till after the draft. The training programs and voluntary workouts don’t start till the summer, and he’s already intimately familiar with Hackett’s system, so I don’t think it would be a detriment to him or the other guys on offense to wait another 1.5 months.

3) Given all of the above and the fact that the Raiders are officially out on Rodgers, GB has no ability to play any other team against Joe Douglass. Add to that the fact that Rodgers publicly announced his desire to play for us, I don’t see where GB’s leverage is.

I believe that best case scenario for the Jets is to get it done between the draft and May 31st. Realistically though, I think it gets done before the draft, because GB wants draft picks, wants to take a look at Jordan Love, and needs that cap space to be able to maneuver through FA and draft signing period.

So, can someone explain to me why I keep reading or seeing everyone talk about how GB had all the time in the world to wait, and that they hold all the cards? Do I have wrong info above? 

[Claymation]

2 hours ago, 32EBoozer said:

I wish I could manipulate Excel spreadsheets the way he does. 10 minutes long but WOW! This proves beyond a doubt that Jets have the most leverage.

The summary:

GB in a world of hurt if he isn’t traded this year, especially with the AR bridge ? burned behind them. Cap implications crippling.

Jets will be holding a lot of Dead Cap space in those ‘25 & ‘26 void years. JD/Woody better hope Salary Cap keeps going up. 
 

https://overthecap.com/explaining-the-salary-cap-implications-of-trading-aaron-rodgers

That's why he isn't worth a 1st, his contract would be cap hell for them.

[Claymation]

1 hour ago, rangerous said:

Granted two seasons is what the jets should expect but you never know. Brady isn’t the only qb to play into his forties. I’m thinking most of the top guys want to keep going but eventually their bodies fail them.

George Blanda is the OG.

[greenwichjetfan]

32 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

Let’s simplify.  Assuming the Jets got Rodgers’ commitment to play 2 years, this is essentially a 2 year deal worth just shy of $110M or $55M per year.

If you look at the annual total pay (incl pro-rated bonus) for the top veteran QBs in 2023 & 2024, Rodgers would rank #1.

Due to the structure of his contract, the Jets benefit from relatively low cap hits the first 2 years at $16M and $32M that then balloons up to slightly more than $60M (dead money) in year 3 after Rodgers retires and is no longer on the team.

But in all reality, the Jets are ‘overpaying’ for 2 years of service by about $20M total (2023 & 2024 total annual pay for a top tier vet QB might be closer to $45M per year).  Note that a lot of the average annual pay we hear about includes much larger numbers later in the contract (eg, Mahomes, Allen, Watson).

The Jets are rightfully calling out (1) this $20M above market rate AND (2) the potential risk that Rodgers retires after year 1 where he would effectively be paid $60M for 1 year, $15M above market.

Absent Rodgers agreeing to a restructure himself, the trade compensation should therefore be less than if he was other paid at market and was a guarantee to play 2 years.

That’s why there has been this talk of increasing the trade comp IF GB is willing to eat some of Rodgers (over market) cap.

But in my opinion, even if they do, you still don’t trade the 13th pick this year for someone who might only play 1 year.  Not sure you do it even if there was a guarantee he plays for 2.

The sweetener should be in 2024 that rises to a first round pick only if Rodgers performs and leads us to glory.

 

 

Right. There’s no way we give up a first outright. Throw them a 4th this year, 4th next year, and a 3rd for the 2025 draft that escalates to a 2nd if Rodgers plays 80% of the snaps in 2024 and escalates to a 1st if jets win 2024 SB.

[32EBoozer]

8 minutes ago, Claymation said:

That's why he isn't worth a 1st, his contract would be cap hell for them.

2 years from now based on today’s Salary Cap. 2 years from now with new streaming $ it could be very manageable (especially with how we handle Q, AVT and Becton contracts)

[Claymation]

4 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

2 years from now based on today’s Salary Cap. 2 years from now with new streaming $ it could be very manageable (especially with how we handle Q, AVT and Becton contracts)

That hit on the Cap 3 years from now will have not consequence if the Jets appear in the Super Bowl with Rodgers at the helm.

[Augustiniak]

26 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said:

Right. There’s no way we give up a first outright. Throw them a 4th this year, 4th next year, and a 3rd for the 2025 draft that escalates to a 2nd if Rodgers plays 80% of the snaps in 2024 and escalates to a 1st if jets win 2024 SB.

He’s not worth a 1st in 2023 b/c he’s got 3 yrs max left.  This year has to be the lower pick, hopefully a 3rd, with next year the conditional.  Douglas is waiting this out and knows GB has to trade him.  

[sciond]

1 hour ago, C Mart said:

How can you say that before he’s taken 1 snap?

Lets worry about “any setting Jets back 5-6 years” down the road. 

It’s not like the past 10+ yrs has been a ball of fun. 

Look at what the cap costs will do to the ability to build the team the right way..

it's as plain as day....

Anyone who cannot see it is only focused on the shiny object.

[32EBoozer]

2 minutes ago, sciond said:

Anyone who cannot see it is only focused on the shiny object.

[THE BARON]

2 hours ago, Bobby816 said:

He was 90% retired a month ago. Pretty sure we’d be lucky to get 2 years out of him. 3 or 4 is out if the picture.

The 90 % retired statement was a subtle way of communicating to GB that he did not want to play football until he thought about playing outside of GB.   He is sick of the GB front office, not football.  

That was the magical concept that came to him in the darkness.

The GB brass sucks and the Jets brass has it goin' on.