Let’s talk about Zach Wilson

[Jet_Engine1]

6 hours ago, More Cowbell said:

I was coming here to post this exact gif. Thanks for taking care of it.

[FootballLove]

1 hour ago, rtnelson said:

I honestly can't tell how much of this is sarcasm and how much is your actual stance.

Zach has his chance to impress enough to get a Jordan Love type deal in a few years and he either will or won't do that.

I personally don't believe his brain works quick enough to be successful in the NFL, but I would be happy to be proven wrong and I'm rooting for him.

My only point was that with all the attention Aaron is giving Z, I don't think JD trades/cuts Z without getting Aaron's permission.

[jgb]

3 hours ago, Dunnie said:

If Zach shows dramatic improvement he may get an extension next summer for 3 more years on the cheap.


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How many first round bust QBs sign extensions on the cheap? I can’t think of any. Some other team always thinks they can “fix them” and puts more value on them than the team who knows first-hand that they suck.

[Dunnie]

3 hours ago, jgb said:

How many first round bust QBs sign extensions on the cheap? I can’t think of any. Some other team always thinks they can “fix them” and puts more value on them than the team who knows first-hand that they suck.

How many struggling first round picks were given this much attention before ?

Aaron and the coaching staff believe in the kid. He either busts out or becomes something. Possibly the FQB of this franchise....

... To this point no one has said  "You know what it's better that both parties move o n". ... They all see something to work with ...

I don't understand the need some guys have, to not only make every thread about our backup QB, but go out of their way to create new threads about a topic that's been covered 100 million times.

 

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Edited August 3, 2023 by Dunnie

[jgb]

1 hour ago, Dunnie said:

How many struggling first round picks were given this much attention before ?

Aaron and the coaching staff believe in the kid. He either busts out or becomes something. Possibly the FQB of this franchise....

... To this point no one has said  "You know what it's better that both parties move o n". ... They all see something to work with ...

I don't understand the need some guys have, to not only make every thread about our backup QB, but go out of their way to create new threads about a topic that's been covered 100 million times.

 

 

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I’m going with the odds here (as always) — there is a very small (single digit percentage) chance Zach gets extended as a Jet. And that’s not just a Jets decision. If I were Zach, the allure of a fresh start somewhere else would likely keep me from signing an extension, especially a cheap one as you suggest. Basically the only path to a mutual extension that I see is if Rodgers goes down, Zach really steps up, and said extension is for starter-money. We can quickly approximate the odds of that happening.

@Jetsfan80 has compiled a list of all highly-drafted QB busts and approximately 1 in 20 “turned it around” at some point (none of the turnarounds after 2 years of bad play did it for the teams that drafted them, interestingly). So the starting point is 5% (being generous because most of those turnarounds happened many years later and Zach has a limited window here). Multiplied by the likelihood that Zach gets an opportunity to turn it around with Rodgers in the building, this 5% is further reduced to 2.9% over the next two years. 65% of starting QBs play every game in a given season. So the odds of Rodgers not missing a game over the next two years 65% x 65% = 42.25%.

(100% - 42.25%) x 5% = 2.8875%.

As far as your point about how much attention he has received, I don’t find it probative as the Jets would say the same regardless of how they really feel about his future. They could believe it, they could not believe it, they could be trying to pump up future trade value, they could be trying to keep him motivated — in all scenarios it would not benefit them to say, “He isn’t the guy and we are moving on.” But actions do speak louder than words and we gave up premium draft capital and a boatload of money for a replacement so… to me the Jets’ true sentiments are reasonably clear. For them to have faith again in Zach, he would need to earn that through live play, and there is no guarantee he is going to get that opportunity. Further, if one were to believe that he still has a future here “just not now” — they should want him as far from the field as possible this year to sit, learn, grow, and benefit from all this mentorship. This is one reason I’m so persistant with my view that the Jets should bring in another vet QB.

As far as you not understanding “the need” for people to talk about it/start threads about it — I humbly offer that it doesn’t matter. Just like it doesn’t matter why you feel “the need” to defend the backup QB. It’s a discussion board — we can all decide for ourselves which topics we engage with.

Tl;dr if anyone is willing to bet you straight up that Zach is still a Jet beyond his rookie contract, bet the farm.

[Dunnie]

I’m still going with the odds here and saying a very small (single digit percentage) chance Zach gets extended as a Jet. And that’s not just a Jets decision. If I were Zach, the allure of a fresh start somewhere else would likely keep me from signing an extension, especially a cheap one as you suggest. Basically the only path to an extension that I see is if Rodgers goes down, Zach really steps up, and said extension is for starter-money.
As far as your point about how much attention he has received, I don’t find it probative as the Jets would say the same regardless of how they really feel about his future. They could believe it, they could be trying to pump up trade value, they could totally not believe it — in all scenarios it would not benefit them to say, “He isn’t the guy and we are moving on.” But actions do speak louder than words and we gave up premium draft capital and a boatload of money for a replacement so… to me the truth of the Jets’ true sentiments are reasonably clear. And further, if one were to believe that he still has a future here “just not now” — they should want him as far from the field as possible this year to sit, learn, grow, and benefit from all this mentorship. This is one reason I’m so persistant with my view that the Jets should bring in another vet QB.
As far as you not understanding “the need” for people to talk about it/start threads about it — I humbly offer that it doesn’t matter. Just like it doesn’t matter why you feel “the need” to defend the backup QB. It’s a discussion board — we can all decide for ourselves which topics we engage with.

The granular point we can agree on, is that Zach MAY not want to stay if given the choice ... That would.be the purest form of typical Jets luck .. turn the kid into a Legit QB and then jettison him at the perfect time so another club can reap the benefits on the NYJ labor. I don't think that is what they have in mind.



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[Kleckineau]

11 hours ago, Matt39 said:

It’s a reset. He needs reps badly. I hope they have enough sense to play him for at least a half.

Isnt this like his 2nd or 3rd reset?

If I recall after his 1st & 2nd reset he came back worse.

How many do you get? Is it contractual?

[Dunnie]

Isnt this like his 2nd or 3rd reset?
If I recall after his 1st & 2nd reset he came back worse.
How many do you get? Is it contractual?

That is mainly because MLF could not figure out how to say "just let Zach be Zach" in more than one way ... So the reset was never a true reset.

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[rangerous]

People seem to forget that Zach was the qb in five of those wins last season and the season would’ve started off even worse had Flacco not had that miracle win in Cleveland.  As a matter of opinion if the jets lost that Cleveland game,they would’ve been completely out of the race by September.  Consider too that Zach’s first year was on a team with few good players and a newbie coaching staff. That season was not going anywhere from game one.

so Zach didn’t turn out to be the hare apparent in year two and showed some bad attributes in the last few games but there is always a chance that the bad from last season won’t carry over to this one and he will improve. As for the level of competition I preseason games, yes it is low. The a teams aren’t in and the defenses are vanilla.  But just how many fans can tell if a qb is the real deal from a preseason game?  I’m sure most QBs are very grateful that their jobs are dictated by what the coaches see as opposed to what the fans see.

[jgb]

48 minutes ago, Dunnie said:

The granular point we can agree on, is that Zach MAY not want to stay if given the choice ... That would.be the purest form of typical Jets luck .. turn the kid into a Legit QB and then jettison him at the perfect time so another club can reap the benefits on the NYJ labor. I don't think that is what they have in mind.



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If he turns into a legit QB they will force him to negotiate an extension with the 5th year option and then, if needed, franchise tag(s). At a minimum they’d trade him for a haul.

I wouldn’t worry about that.

[jgb]

34 minutes ago, Dunnie said:

That is mainly because MLF could not figure out how to say "just let Zach be Zach" in more than one way ... So the reset was never a true reset.

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Reminds me how during the Macc era every season was the first year of “the REAL rebuild.”

[jgb]

1 hour ago, Kleckineau said:

Isnt this like his 2nd or 3rd reset?

If I recall after his 1st & 2nd reset he came back worse.

How many do you get? Is it contractual?

If Rodgers misses time and Zach is forced into action, bet you any amount the argument will then be “Jets screwed the pooch by not having a vet backup QB and forced Zach in before the reset was complete.”

[More Cowbell]

7 hours ago, Jet_Engine1 said:

I was coming here to post this exact gif. Thanks for taking care of it.

[Kleckineau]

1 hour ago, Dunnie said:

That is mainly because MLF could not figure out how to say "just let Zach be Zach" in more than one way ... So the reset was never a true reset.

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Your statement infers ZW would have lived up to draft status if it were not for MLF.

I am not a fan of MLF but jeez I remember them taking pressure off ZW with some of the most basic run oriented game plans being trotted out there and ZW still couldnt execute.

 

[FidelioJet]

15 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

Prediction:  Zach goes 9 for 11, 1 TD, 0 INT against a bunch of UDFAs on a high school field in Canton and then we wake up Friday morning to new threads here like...

"Okay, I'm a believer in Zach now"

"Told you Rodgers would fix him!"

"QB Controversy says what?!?!?!"

lol

 

OMG.  The hate for this kid is so strange.

How awful it would be for him to look good?....So bad that the fans would be happy about it.

What a terrible outcome...

[Jet Nut]

13 hours ago, Matt39 said:

It’s a reset. He needs reps badly. I hope they have enough sense to play him for at least a half.

This way if he gets hurt in the 2nd Q we can call Saleh and the CS idiots for playing him?

[jgb]

1 hour ago, rangerous said:

People seem to forget that Zach was the qb in five of those wins last season and the season would’ve started off even worse had Flacco not had that miracle win in Cleveland.  As a matter of opinion if the jets lost that Cleveland game,they would’ve been completely out of the race by September.  Consider too that Zach’s first year was on a team with few good players and a newbie coaching staff. That season was not going anywhere from game one.

this all sounds so very familiar

 

1 hour ago, rangerous said:

there is always a chance that the bad from last season won’t carry over to this one and he will improve.

Unlike Hans Solo, I am interested in talking about the odds. And they ain’t good.

[Dunnie]

Unlike Hans Solo, I am interested in talking about the odds. And they ain’t good.

So you're more like hooper from JAWS is what you're saying

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[Matt39]

13 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

This way if he gets hurt in the 2nd Q we can call Saleh and the CS idiots for playing him?

No. He needs to play a ton. This is a huge preseason for him. Not worried about injuries when reps are the most important thing.

[Rhg1084]

Happy 24th bday Zach!

[Jet Nut]

6 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

No. He needs to play a ton. This is a huge preseason for him. Not worried about injuries when reps are the most important thing.

Joking. 😎

[Jet Nut]

29 minutes ago, Rhg1084 said:

Happy 24th bday Zach!

Crazy that he’s so much younger than Burrow 

Fixed 

[Jet Nut]

10 hours ago, Rhg1084 said:

Let’s say AR plays for 3 years. Is Zach really gonna stick around for that long as a reclamation project? What kind of contract would he receive in that scenario? And then when Rodgers finally does retire would Zach be capable of handling the QB1 duties? A lot remains to be seen how his story plays out but I’m interested as hell watching him tomorrow night.

Alternatively let’s say AR plays for 3 years and Zach hardly gets any playing time, hopefully big leads for us leads to mop up duty.  Either way how much are we going to see out of ZW for 3 years.  Who trading for ZW?

[Kleckineau]

1 minute ago, Jet Nut said:

Alternatively let’s say AR plays for 3 years and Zach hardly gets any playing time, hopefully big leads for us leads to mop up duty.  Either way how much are we going to see out of ZW for 3 years.  Who trading for ZW?

The Mormon Tabernacle Choir called. They want their eunuch back.

[The Gun Of Bavaria]

Rex Ryan Called. He said we should play Aaron Rodgers and leave him in even into the 4th Quarter.

I hung up. 

[Hex]

14 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Crazy that he’s younger than Burrow 

Well Burrow was drafted a year before he was

[jgb]

5 minutes ago, The Gun Of Bavaria said:

Rex Ryan Called. He said we should play Aaron Rodgers and leave him in even into the 4th Quarter.

I hung up. 

Only on 27 August when we play the Giants 

[Jet Nut]

5 minutes ago, Hex said:

Well Burrow was drafted a year before he was

He will turn 27 this season though.  
Should have finished my sentence. Lol

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

My 1 cent, broken into mini cents..

1. As a Jets fan, I’m very much rooting for Zach to make a historic comeback

2. We often get ‘angry’ when players ‘bust’ without looking at the specifics of each case

3. Zach came in, worked hard … and ultimately failed his first 2 years

4. But was he really ready to be thrown into the fire?

5. Many of us have suffered from anxiety related issues, often times undiagnosed.  I personally believe the Jets missed big on Zach’s mental state after a year playing before empty crowds during COVID

6. Some don’t understand.  I get it.  Having been thru a severe (mid life) bout with anxiety, it can be debilitating

7. We’ve heard of sports related YIPs.  The Jets have discussed mechanics but the look on Zach’s face and the number of times he threw into the dirt tell me it was more than mechanics.  Most flag football legends on this board would NOT dirt throws like Zach had a propensity to do

8. IF Zach did suffer from the YIPs, this makes his story a little different than some of the QB busts before him

9. It might also explain why when the pressure has been removed, he has been able to play freely and let some of his natural talent shine

10. So as another stepping stone, here’s hoping Zach balls out tonight and starts to prove to himself he can do this 

[Jetsfan80]

3 hours ago, Dunnie said:

The granular point we can agree on, is that Zach MAY not want to stay if given the choice ... That would.be the purest form of typical Jets luck .. turn the kid into a Legit QB and then jettison him at the perfect time so another club can reap the benefits on the NYJ labor. I don't think that is what they have in mind.
 

In my entire Jets fandom there have only been 2 players the Jets let go that was truly regrettable:  James Farrior and Demario Davis.

However, there have been countless instances of the team hanging on to a sh*tty player for too long.  David Barrett, Justin McCareins, Eric Smith ( @Bleedin Green ), Mark Sanchez, Wayne Hunter, Kyle Wilson, Buster Skrine, Chuma Edoga, Conor McDermott, Denzel Mims, Nathan Shepherd, Ashtyn Davis  ( @pointman), CJ Mosley ( @Sperm Edwards ), etc etc

Color me unconcerned about this.

[jgb]

15 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

My 1 cent, broken into mini cents..

1. As a Jets fan, I’m very much rooting for Zach to make a historical comeback

2. We often get ‘angry’ when players ‘bust’ without looking at the specifics of each case

3. Zach came in, worked hard … and ultimately failed his first 2 years

4. But was he really ready to be thrown into the fire?

5. Many of us have suffered from anxiety related issues, often times undiagnosed.  I personally believe the Jets missed big on Zach’s mental state after a year playing before empty crowds during COVID

6. Some don’t understand.  I get it.  Having been thru a severe (mid life) bout with anxiety, it can be debilitating

7. We’ve heard of sports related YIPs.  The Jets have discussed mechanics but the look on Zach’s face and the number of times he threw into the dirt tell me it was more than mechanics.  Most flag football legends on this board would NOT dirt throws like Zach had a propensity to do

8. IF Zach did suffer from the YIPs, this makes his story a little different than some of the QB busts before him

9. It might also explain why when the pressure has been removed, he has been able to play freely and let some of his natural talent shine

10. So as another stepping stone, here’s hoping Zach balls out tonight and starts to prove to himself he can do this 

I sympathize with Zach. It must suck to suck in such a public position with customers (read: fans) that are so emotionally-invested in your performance. But I care more about the Jets than him personally. If you’re not helping the team win, hasta la vista.

[PFSIKH]

45 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Alternatively let’s say AR plays for 3 years and Zach hardly gets any playing time, hopefully big leads for us leads to mop up duty.  Either way how much are we going to see out of ZW for 2 years.  Who trading for ZW?

Fixed.

Tua's 5th year option cost is over 23 million.  Zach is at the basic level which is over 20 million.  Tua and Burrow's basic level was 20 million.

Anyways, why would the Jets pick it up?  He will be traded next offseason.

[More Cowbell]

3 hours ago, Dunnie said:

That is mainly because MLF could not figure out how to say "just let Zach be Zach" in more than one way ... So the reset was never a true reset.

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I really can't  believe people are still defending Zach like this by blaming MLF. How about Zach learning to play within the system or is Zach such a rate talent that he can only play in an O specific to his skill set like running around the backfield, holding the ball for what seems like an eternity, missing wide open receivers who are literally  about 10 yards in front of him, throwing balls into the dirt, throw balls 5 feet over the head of a WR. Is this the Zach we were supposed to let Zach be? Every other QB who played for MLF did well, even Strevler looked serviceable. I'm not saying I will miss MLF, but come on, Zach finished at the bottom or near the bottom of ever measurable stat for a QB 2 years in a row. That doesn't  happen by accident. He was so bad that there was no way the Jets would start him this season no matter who we acquired. Saleh named Zach the #2 QB at a time he should have been the incumbent starter. The team who should know more about him than anyone  had no confidence he could lead the team and I would bet a large number of the players felt the same way. Enough already 

[jgb]

2 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

I really can't  believe people are still defending Zach like this by blaming MLF. How about Zach learning to play within the system or is Zach such a rate talent that he can only play in an O specific to his skill set like running around the backfield, holding the ball for what seems like an eternity, missing wide open receivers who are literally  about 10 yards in front of him, throwing balls into the dirt, throw balls 5 feet over the head of a WR. Is this the Zach we were supposed to let Zach be? Every other QB who played for MLF did well, even Strevler looked serviceable. I'm not saying I will miss MLF, but come on, Zach finished at the bottom or near the bottom of ever measurable stat for a QB 2 years in a row. That doesn't  happen by accident. He was so bad that there was no way the Jets would start him this season no matter who we acquired. Saleh named Zach the #2 QB at a time he should have been the incumbent starter. The team who should know more about him than anyone  had no confidence he could lead the team and I would bet a large number of the players felt the same way. Enough already 

Letting go of a busted highly-drafted QB is impossible for some people. It’s weird. I care more about the team. I’d cut my own mother if she had a sub-40 QBR.

[The Green Dude]

GEQBUS... as a full-time lurker I just had to chime in. Was this thread absolutely necessary captain obvious?