JD Declined Trade Down w/Rams From 10

[TuscanyTile2]

1 minute ago, Raideraholic said:

Your starting te is average at best .   He’s no game changer. You had no weapons beside G Wilson - someone has to catch passes .  Why he was 11th .     The Raiders have two te’s that will be top five at their position.    Heck the Raiders have two Mackey awards best Te .( should be three M Mayer should won one over bowers one of those years.     The two are Brock Bowers, and third string Harrison Bryant .         You saw Cole Kelmet did in Luke Getsy  te friendly offense.     Cole Kelmet couldn’t hold Mayer or B Bowers jock strap as a te prospect. 

The Raiders are going to be a very interesting team to watch this year.  I'm a big fan of Mayer and I have to assume Bowers is going to be a really good TE as well, given all the hype.  They also have a great defense and they seem to love playing for Antonio Pierce.  Really looking forward to this NFL season!

[bicketybam]

5 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

The Raiders are going to be a very interesting team to watch this year.  I'm a big fan of Mayer and I have to assume Bowers is going to be a really good TE as well, given all the hype.  They also have a great defense and they seem to love playing for Antonio Pierce.  Really looking forward to this NFL season!

I am officially nominating you to be the Jets Fan Ambassador to whatever Raiders forum this guy lives at. Do us proud 👍

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

3 hours ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

The Raiders are going to be a very interesting team to watch this year.  I'm a big fan of Mayer and I have to assume Bowers is going to be a really good TE as well, given all the hype.  They also have a great defense and they seem to love playing for Antonio Pierce.  Really looking forward to this NFL season!

Luckily for them they don’t need to make a decision on Mayer for another 3 years.

But it’s interesting because Mayer and Bowers both profile more as detached “move” TEs than traditional inline players.

The Gronk Hernandez thing is often cited, but Gronk was beastly as a blocker as well.

Small sample sizes can be deceiving, but Antonio Pierce looks to be possibly legit, definitely more so than Bobby Salad at least.

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

7 hours ago, Joe W. Namath said:

Um…….our starting tight end had had 61 catches last year.  11th most catches by a tight end in 2023.

But you go keep the diseased narrative alive my friend.

We’re not friends 😂

Conklin has had exactly 87 targets for 3 straight years.

He’s not a difference maker, and his productivity — which is nothing special — has next to nothing to do with Hackett.

There’s no “narrative”.  

McVay is an infinitely better, smarter coach than Hackett.  He’s a talent maximizer.

That’s not debatable except maybe in your own addled brain.

 

[Barry McCockinner]

3 hours ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

The Raiders are going to be a very interesting team to watch this year.  I'm a big fan of Mayer and I have to assume Bowers is going to be a really good TE as well, given all the hype.  They also have a great defense and they seem to love playing for Antonio Pierce.  Really looking forward to this NFL season!

Surely you remember the hype surrounding JaMarcus Russell and Robert Gallery. Why do you have to assume hype = reality?

[FootballLove]

I'd have taken it.

Draft is just tooooo much of a crap shoot. Giving up 3 nice picks to hold on to your one slightly higher pick makes no sense (to me). It's irresponsible to have 'that much faith' in a single player. Any tackle taken at 19 could easily end up being just as good or even better than the object of Douglas' obsession.

The NFL trajectory of any player is just too uncertain to put all our eggs in one basket.

[FootballLove]

Look at it in reverse....if Jets already owned 19, 57, 99, would you be OK with Joe trading all that away to move up a bit (19->11) to take a tackle?

[doitny]

8 hours ago, Joe W. Namath said:

But you go keep the diseased narrative alive my friend.

42 minutes ago, JoeNamathsFurCoat said:

We’re not friends 😂

i think you both should thumb wrestle and the loser cant call himself Joe Namath anymore.

[Matt39]

Joe Douglas. Masterclass 

[jamesr]

Woof, seems like a stupid call to not take this so you can draft a backup LT.

Barring a miracle, Olu will be starting games at LT this year.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

[Jetsplayer21]

8 hours ago, FootballLove said:

I'd have taken it.

Draft is just tooooo much of a crap shoot. Giving up 3 nice picks to hold on to your one slightly higher pick makes no sense (to me). It's irresponsible to have 'that much faith' in a single player. Any tackle taken at 19 could easily end up being just as good or even better than the object of Douglas' obsession.

The NFL trajectory of any player is just too uncertain to put all our eggs in one basket.

That is true. But JD has been horrible at building a OL. He had to go for the more secure bet this yr. Even if he too agrees with your point. Call it neglect or bad luck, he had to pick his best shot at a OT. But I definitely agree. JD traded up for AVT, and guy picked a few spots behind him has been all pro OT every yr. 

[TuscanyTile2]

9 hours ago, FootballLove said:

Look at it in reverse....if Jets already owned 19, 57, 99, would you be OK with Joe trading all that away to move up a bit (19->11) to take a tackle?

Definitely not - lol.  I totally get your point.  

[C Mart]

19 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Given that Fashanu was available it makes it harder to trade down. It was a really nice piece for this team as a high quality backup to an often injured starter this year and for the future.

That said I was pretty high on Adonai Mitchell and would have been really happy walking away from the first two rounds w/Fautanu & Mitchell.

52 would have been Corley. As 1JD showed us Jets were trying to trade up into mid-2nd round for Corley

[Fantasy Island]

14 hours ago, Raideraholic said:

Your starting te is average at best .   He’s no game changer. You had no weapons beside G Wilson - someone has to catch passes .  Why he was 11th .     The Raiders have two te’s that will be top five at their position.    Heck the Raiders have two Mackey awards best Te .( should be three M Mayer should won one over bowers one of those years.     The two are Brock Bowers, and third string Harrison Bryant .         You saw Cole Kelmet did in Luke Getsy  te friendly offense.     Cole Kelmet couldn’t hold Mayer or B Bowers jock strap as a te prospect. 
 

Thankyou. Joe Douglas for not making that trade - Raider nation thanks you from bottom of our hearts. 

I am so thankful that our gm didn't select what will be one of the biggest busts since Kyle Brady.

Enjoy 3rd place , we do.

[32EBoozer]

21 hours ago, T0mShane said:

I would have been tempted to take that because the Jets needed picks, but in this case you’re getting Fautanu or Brian Thomas instead of Olu, and Douglas probably takes Corley at 52 (he was rumored to have been trying to trade back up into R2 for him. So if you take Corley there, that leaves you at 72, which was kind of no-man’s land. Maybe they take Blake Corum at that spot? Or if they went with Brian Thomas at 19, they come back for Amegidije(sp) at 72?

Based on the classic Jimmy Johnson trade chart, Douglas was wise to turn down the trade. The 10th overall pick is worth 1,300 points on its own. Snead’s proposed package was worth 1,255 points – the 19th pick is worth 875 points while the 52nd pick is worth 380 points. That’s a 45-point edge in the Rams’ favor, which is equivalent in value to a late fourth-round pick. So, the Jets would have lost out on overall value despite adding an extra selection, which is always a big no-no for teams moving down. Typically, the team moving down wins on the trade chart.

The Jets wound up trading down one spot with the Minnesota Vikings, netting a fourth-round pick (129th overall) and fifth-round pick (157th) for a sixth-round pick (203rd). The picks were essentially free money for Douglas, as the Vikings were moving up to take Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy, whom the Jets obviously would not have drafted. With the 11th pick, the Jets selected Penn State offensive tackle Olu Fashanu.

 

20 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Given that Fashanu was available it makes it harder to trade down. It was a really nice piece for this team as a high quality backup to an often injured starter this year and for the future.

That said I was pretty high on Adonai Mitchell and would have been really happy walking away from the first two rounds w/Fautanu & Mitchell.

 

[Barry McCockinner]

Just now, 32EBoozer said:

Based on the classic Jimmy Johnson trade chart, Douglas was wise to turn down the trade. The 10th overall pick is worth 1,300 points on its own. Snead’s proposed package was worth 1,255 points – the 19th pick is worth 875 points while the 52nd pick is worth 380 points. That’s a 45-point edge in the Rams’ favor, which is equivalent in value to a late fourth-round pick. So, the Jets would have lost out on overall value despite adding an extra selection, which is always a big no-no for teams moving down. Typically, the team moving down wins on the trade chart.

The Jets wound up trading down one spot with the Minnesota Vikings, netting a fourth-round pick (129th overall) and fifth-round pick (157th) for a sixth-round pick (203rd). The picks were essentially free money for Douglas, as the Vikings were moving up to take Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy, whom the Jets obviously would not have drafted. With the 11th pick, the Jets selected Penn State offensive tackle Olu Fashanu.

 

 

A couple things about this. First, that was just the initial offer from the Rams. If JD was interested in moving down he could have countered to pickup whatever perceived missing value he saw. Second, the value chart is just a guideline - it's not some scientific model or anything and there's no rules requiring anyone to follow it. Jimmy Johnson dreamed that thing up out of thin air one day. Doesn't make it gospel.

Fashanu was probably just too good at a position of need to pass up is my guess. If he wasn't there it would have been a different story IMO.

[32EBoozer]

3 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

A couple things about this. First, that was just the initial offer from the Rams.

The “Suppposed” 2nd offer was even less important to JD as he now had the extra Minn. draft capital and Olu still on the board.

Second, the value chart is just a guideline - it's not some scientific model or anything and there's no rules requiring anyone to follow it. Jimmy Johnson dreamed that thing up out of thin air one day. Doesn't make it gospel.

Yet, it has been a cornerstone for draft day deals ever since… even being the catalyst for copycat formulas.

Fashanu was probably just too good at a position of need to pass up is my guess. If he wasn't there it would have been a different story IMO.

Agreed… JD could not risk coming away with a tier 3 OL. He had no guarantee how things would play out. Protecting Rodgers was the most important task of this draft. Additional offensive weapons, task #2.

 

[T0mShane]

53 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

Based on the classic Jimmy Johnson trade chart, Douglas was wise to turn down the trade. The 10th overall pick is worth 1,300 points on its own. Snead’s proposed package was worth 1,255 points – the 19th pick is worth 875 points while the 52nd pick is worth 380 points. That’s a 45-point edge in the Rams’ favor, which is equivalent in value to a late fourth-round pick. So, the Jets would have lost out on overall value despite adding an extra selection, which is always a big no-no for teams moving down. Typically, the team moving down wins on the trade chart.

The Jets wound up trading down one spot with the Minnesota Vikings, netting a fourth-round pick (129th overall) and fifth-round pick (157th) for a sixth-round pick (203rd). The picks were essentially free money for Douglas, as the Vikings were moving up to take Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy, whom the Jets obviously would not have drafted. With the 11th pick, the Jets selected Penn State offensive tackle Olu Fashanu.

 

 

The Johnson trade chart is obsolete now. Teams all use some variation of the Spielberger-Fitzgerald chart

[Dcat]

12 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

The Johnson trade chart is obsolete now. Teams all use some variation of the Spielberger-Fitzgerald chart

Differences Between the Rich Hill, Fitzgerald-Spielberger, and Harvard Trade Value Charts

The Jimmy Johnson NFL Trade Value Chart Is the Best-Known

Jimmy Johnson did not create draft value charts, but his chart is the most well-known around the NFL. In fact, Johnson took previous charts and modified them based on the data at the time.

While his chart is the most well-known, it is largely outdated due to the changing dynamics of the NFL Draft and the individualization of NFL team analytics, which has each team valuing things independently of other teams.

While the Johnson chart is widely accepted as the official trade value chart by many in the media, NFL teams have created their own charts that they place more value on, as it is individualized to their own organization.

With new statistical analysis able to be performed, the introduction of the rookie wage scale, and more, the need to adapt was always a requirement. Each franchise has its own analytics teams, and that is what is relied on during the draft.

Rich Hill Trade Value Chart

Rich Hill’s trade chart has become one of the most commonly referenced charts outside of the Johnson model, though rarely referred to much anymore. Hill’s trade value chart begins with a value of 1,000 for the No. 1 overall selection. It then drops to 717, 514, 491, and 468, respectively, through the first five selections. Here are the values from Hill’s chart using the same selections as Johnson’s.

Fitzgerald-Spielberger Trade Value Chart

Jason Fitzgerald and Brad Spielberger of Over the Cap also produced their version of the NFL trade value chart. They retroactively graded every draft selection from 2011 to 2015 following the conclusion of their rookie contract. They looked at the value of the contracts and the performances of players to produce their chart. Again, their chart is more of a reference for media and fans to approximate value, as NFL teams place their own values on these picks.

Doing so accounts for how teams grade the players in the current draft. For example, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft may not be worth what the No. 1 overall pick is worth in 2021 or 2023.

Harvard Trade Value Chart

Kevin Meers detailed another NFL trade value chart model in the Harvard Sports Analysis Collective. Meers used Pro Football Reference’s Career Approximate Value Metric. After analyzing data from 1980 to 2005, Meers produced his own trade value chart. The Harvard trade value chart also does not contain data for compensatory selections.

The trade value chart begins with a value of 494.6 for the No. 1 overall selection. It then drops to 435.7, 401.3, 376.9, and 357.9, respectively, through the first five selections. Here are the approximate values from the Harvard chart using the same selections as with the Johnson chart.

[32EBoozer]

27 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

The Johnson trade chart is obsolete now. Teams all use some variation of the Spielberger-Fitzgerald chart

[Integrity28]

6 hours ago, jamesr said:

Barring a miracle, Olu will be starting games at LT this year.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
 

Cool. You’re still describing a backup. 

[jamesr]

Cool. You’re still describing a backup. 

Guess we should release Smith? Not sure why it's an issue drafting a guy who can be eased into the lineup rather than throwing him in Day 1.

He'll be a starter at a critical position for years to come. That's what you spend high draft picks on.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

[Integrity28]

6 minutes ago, jamesr said:

Guess we should release Smith? Not sure why it's an issue drafting a guy who can be eased into the lineup rather than throwing him in Day 1.

He'll be a starter at a critical position for years to come. That's what you spend high draft picks on.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
 

I didn’t say it’s an issue. I do believe that the strategy to draft a LT and see him in slowly aligns more with picking one outside the top 10, which in this case would have been perfect alongside this trade.

It’s not really an opinion, it’s more pragmatism. 

[jamesr]

I didn’t say it’s an issue. I do believe that the strategy to draft a LT and see him in slowly aligns more with picking one outside the top 10, which in this case would have been perfect alongside this trade.
It’s not really an opinion, it’s more pragmatism. 

Well we did draft him outside the top 10 (just).

He would have been gone by 19, so then you'd be looking at a Fautanu or Guyton, or another next-tier guy. I'd feel a lot less comfortable having one of those guys starting at some point this year, and in seeing them as a future long-term starter.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

[Rich Thornburgh]

13 hours ago, Matt39 said:

Joe Douglas. Masterclass 

I didn’t know the rams offered this deal.  It was a no brainer 

[Rich Thornburgh]

1 hour ago, Integrity28 said:

I didn’t say it’s an issue. I do believe that the strategy to draft a LT and see him in slowly aligns more with picking one outside the top 10, which in this case would have been perfect alongside this trade.

It’s not really an opinion, it’s more pragmatism. 

Fuaga is more of a RT but I’m not at all opposed to drafting a good RT prospect in round 1. Carter Warren is better at LT and could have been the backup for Tyron or just sign Bakhtiari

[Sperm Edwards]

1 hour ago, Integrity28 said:

I didn’t say it’s an issue. I do believe that the strategy to draft a LT and see him in slowly aligns more with picking one outside the top 10, which in this case would have been perfect alongside this trade.

It’s not really an opinion, it’s more pragmatism. 

Sometimes going against the grain in round 1 works out better longer term. Right now people are touting the super foresight of taking a QB in round 1, benching him for 3 years, exercising the 5th year option before he's played, and then basically get 1 year of starts out of him before forking over a $55MM/year extension. 

LT is (ideally) one of those very long-term investments. If - after his top choice WR was off the board - he thinks this guy is going to start at LT for about a decade, I wouldn't get cute about it over adding a lower-percentage pick that ended up not even being a 2nd rounder in effect. 

Truth is turning it down looks better in hindsight - prior to seeing them play, of course - because Corley was likely going to be that 2nd round pick anyway, so in effect they'd have added/saved pick #72 to use on not-Corley. 

If one of the few other tackles becomes a superior (or on-par) LT to Fashanu, it'll be tempting to fault it in hindsight, but that's only weighing it based on information nobody had at the time. This was the draft's #1 or #2 pass-blocking LT prospect, and he's just 21 years old. I wouldn't risk that over adding a 10th pick in round 3 that carries roughly a 20% success rate.

That's my own view of pragmatism, but like yours, even deciding what's pragmatic is opinion.

Given the multitude of OL flops Douglas has added, and since he didn't stay pat at #10 anyway, I'm ok with this one. 

[genot]

On 6/14/2024 at 1:03 PM, Joe W. Namath said:

Masterclass as usual by the best, young gm in the league.

Sorry Joe. Couldn't resist.

[Integrity28]

5 hours ago, jamesr said:

Well we did draft him outside the top 10 (just).

He would have been gone by 19, so then you'd be looking at a Fautanu or Guyton, or another next-tier guy. I'd feel a lot less comfortable having one of those guys starting at some point this year, and in seeing them as a future long-term starter.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
 

If the plan is to ease them in, then you go with the later prospect and net additional picks. 

Easing in a 11th overall pick is not the strategy of a contender. 

[Barry McCockinner]

23 minutes ago, Integrity28 said:

If the plan is to ease them in, then you go with the later prospect and net additional picks. 

Easing in a 11th overall pick is not the strategy of a contender. 

A contender with a starting LT who has a brutal recent injury history. Yes, it's a backup player and I get what you're saying but keeping the 40 year old QB healthy is priority #1 and having a solid backup plan at LT was pretty important for this team. When you have a strong roster it's also more difficult to draft a pure starter.

[Integrity28]

1 minute ago, Barry McCockinner said:

A contender with a starting LT who has a brutal recent injury history. Yes, it's a backup player and I get what you're saying but keeping the 40 year old QB healthy is priority #1 and having a solid backup plan at LT was pretty important for this team. When you have a strong roster it's also more difficult to draft a pure starter.

You guys do understand that this whole bit of reasoning is a biased rationalization… right?

 

[Barry McCockinner]

1 minute ago, Integrity28 said:

You guys do understand that this whole bit of reasoning is a biased rationalization… right?

 

you know I don't speak Spanish.

Whatever that means, I was saying the same crap before the draft. I thought LT was a high priority - not like I'm changing my take because we took one.

[hmhertz]

From my pal a Ram fan after I e-mailed him the  thread-

More to this: After the #Jets traded down one spot with the #Vikings, the #Rams got back on the phone with the Jets and offered their 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round picks to move up to No. 11, along with a 6th rounder. The Jets still wouldn't budge.

 

BTW, I heard/believe Rams liked Bowers, the Texas DT, and Verse at #11. As it broke, they started to believe Verse would get to them. But, they may have wanted the Texas guy even more?

 

Offensive line play can be taught, the Jets efforts for WR in FA and the draft was pitiful

[neckdemon]

sean mcvay makes a terrible negotiator. "hey you guys don't wanna trade right?" lol
 

[32EBoozer]

1 hour ago, hmhertz said:

Offensive line play can be taught, the Jets efforts for WR in FA and the draft was pitiful

Who were you looking at in FA - WR? Try to keep under $20mil per.
 

The Jets had Corley as the 4th best WR and the got him. 6’6” 320 with 34” arms and quick feet can’t be taught. Humble and great locker room guy can’t be taught. No career sacks given up vs. Big 10 competition is an accomplishment.