Braylon Edwards will be the best WR in the division...

[RutgersJetFan]

Cycloptic?

I watched Austin Powers the other day and have been waiting for any sort of opportunity to use that word.

[SenorGato]

Good run blocker is like saying a blind date has a good personality.

Good thing it's not his best talent then, no?

Edwards is slower than Holmes. Edwards played worse as the year went by so I don't think extra time with the QB will help. Part of the reason Big Ben was a top 5 QB was having Holmes. Big Ben has a weird style that won't work with every WR. PIT didn't let him go because he was old, they let him go because he smokes weed.

Yeah, Holmes is probably timed faster...you can have that.

I'm sorry...Edwards played worse as the year went on last year? How so? When?

Roethlisberger was a top 5 QB before, during, and I'm willing to bet after Holmes...

I don't know what to expect from Keller.

Alot.

Cotchery is the best slow WR in the game, but there is a ceiling on his production due to lack of speed. Just watch him try to return punts.

Returning punts has nothing to do with anything here...Washington sucked at returning punts too...it's one of the hardest things to do well in the league.

What's the ceiling on his production?

Edwards drops the ball and mentally checks out at the wrong time. But he might be the most gifted WR in the league right now.

He isn't the most gifted WR in the league, but he most definitely is the most gifted one on the team. Teams were scared of Edwards last year, and the improvements our offense made after acquiring him show it. He beats his man consistently, and is probably the best route runner on the team.

I really don't see the point of hanging your hat on dropped passes...they correlate to nothing and everyone does it. It's at least as weak as a building a good argument in support of Edwards based on his run blocking.

Compared to Holmes I like Edwards' size/speed better, I like his pedigree better, I like his character better, I think he's more mature, I think he's probably a smarter all around guy, I think he's more ready to play in this town, I think he offers more big time upside....Basically as far as the future is concerned I think Edwards has all the INTANGIBLES (mmmm) pointing in the right direction compared to Holmes. I even like that when he's dominated, he's dominated to levels Holmes couldn't touch...even if Holmes did manage a Super Bowl MVP 2 years ago.

As far as the whole balls thrown in the general direction thing...I'd have to see some numbers first, but even then there's tons of holes in that argument...who's the QB (WRs don't throw themselves the ball)...was it a well thrown pass or just a ball in the area...what counts as a target...all that jazz...then there's the whole "why would the Steelers let Holmes go if he's so good?" thing that no one seems to want to touch.

[Larz]

why are people rating holmes over edwards ?

yes, I remember the catch in the SB, but I'm just asking why would you rate him higher ?

speed ?

[SenorGato]

why are people rating holmes over edwards ?

yes, I remember the catch in the SB, but I'm just asking why would you rate him higher ?

speed ?

2 reasons:

He just had a statistically better season.

He won a SB MVP.

That's it...The funny thing is he wouldn't even have gotten the MVP if he didn't make that catch, cause I guarantee no one remembers any of the 8 others he made that game. Even then, when did one game become such a great evaluation tool?

Holmes is talented, but I see 0 reason to buy him being the team's best WR next year. Lol he's not even dressing for 4 games...

[dbatesman]

I really don't see the point of hanging your hat on dropped passes...they correlate to nothing and everyone does it. It's at least as weak as a building a good argument in support of Edwards based on his run blocking.

The point isn't the number of drops, it's catch rate. In Edwards' beef moe year, he caught 80 balls on 153 targets. Getting 1289 yards and 16 TDs out of him required an opportunity cost of nearly one incomplete pass for every ball he caught. It's why catch rate doesn't "correlate to nothing," it's why Brandon Marshall is the most overrated football player on the planet, and it's why barring a physical transubstantion on Edwards' part the Braylon Bandwagon is headed off a cliff.

[SenorGato]

The point isn't the number of drops, it's catch rate. In Edwards' beef moe year, he caught 80 balls on 153 targets. Getting 1289 yards and 16 TDs out of him required an opportunity cost of nearly one incomplete pass for every ball he caught. That's why catch rate doesn't "correlate to nothing."

Yes, but again....it's a stat very similar to batting average in baseball. Like batting average it's a flawed statistic.

What's his catch percentage for his career? His college years? One year can easily fall into sample size categories...Then there's the fact that the guy throwing him the ball isn't exactly what I'd call an efficient passer...

It's just not that easy to do statistical analysis in football like that...the Catch % is nice, but has there been any kind of study that shows it means anything? What's his catch % compared to other players? Etc....I mean should I assume that if Edwards throws up another season with over a 50% catch% that he'll statistically be one of the better WRs in the league again based on the 3 years FO has up?

[L.S. Dylan]

They are and they aren't. A guy like Becht (he just sticks out in my head) had pathetic hands.

With Edwards it's either concentration or he needs contact lenses. But a guy with "pathetic" hands could never make the impossible circus catches he hauls in.

A player like Becht could never become a great receiver (even as a TE). Someone like Edwards could be great.

I think he's been great in the locker room too. I like Braylon on our team.

[Blackout]

Cotchery

Moss

Marshall

Holmes

Edelman

[dbatesman]

Yes, but again....it's a stat very similar to batting average in baseball. Like batting average it's a flawed statistic.

What's his catch percentage for his career? His college years? One year can easily fall into sample size categories...Then there's the fact that the guy throwing him the ball isn't exactly what I'd call an efficient passer...

It's just not that easy to do statistical analysis in football like that...the Catch % is nice, but has there been any kind of study that shows it means anything? What's his catch % compared to other players? Etc....I mean should I assume that if Edwards throws up another season with over a 50% catch% that he'll statistically be one of the better WRs in the league again based on the 3 years FO has up?

There doesn't need to be a study. It's a simple matter of opportunity cost. Getting his catch rate up to his recent average of 50% does nothing, because 50% is still terrible. The top guys in the league are all above 60%, which to the best of my knowledge Edwards has never sniffed.

[Sperm Edwards]

There doesn't need to be a study. It's a simple matter of opportunity cost. Getting his catch rate up to his recent average of 50% does nothing, because 50% is still terrible. The top guys in the league are all above 60%, which to the best of my knowledge Edwards has never sniffed.

The top guys in the league generally have better QB's throwing to them than a revolving door of Charlie Frye Derek Anderson, Brady Quinn, and a rookie Mark Sanchez.

Last year Lee Evans was at 46%. Does he suck or are his QB's just Trent Edwards and Ryan Fitzpatrick? How about Steve Smith (Car) tipping the scales at 51% with Delhomme and Matt Moore? Calvin Johnson at under 50% also.

The problem with a dumb stat like that is it assumes every pass thrown is equally catchable. A wobbly duck 10 yards off the mark or thrown out of bounds to avoid a pass rush is counted exactly the same as a perfectly thrown spiral right between the numbers. Any WR stat that weighs those two types of passes equally is not a stat worth paying attention to.

[SenorGato]

^^^ Exactly. Catch rate is nice, but it's barely a glimpse at a players' skill level...And there's really only 3 years worth of data on it on FO.

I'm sure his catch rate would go up if a QB was efficient in getting him the ball. FO even put that in their disclaimer on catch rate. It's a highly flawed statistics, and him getting thrown at 153 times doesn't mean he got 153 catch able passes. It does show that they really wanted to get him the ball.

Brandon Marshall is the same thing, except I think there's a huge different in character between the guys. I can't stand Brandon Marshall and didn't want him because he's been in more trouble than he'd be worth in this town. Edwards IMO will last and at some point probably throw up some really good seasons. I expect one next year, and I then expect him to be the WR resigned for 2011+.

[Bruce Banner]

why are people rating holmes over edwards ?

yes, I remember the catch in the SB, but I'm just asking why would you rate him higher ?

speed ?

Holmes comes through when you need him while Braylon doesn't.

[SenorGato]

Holmes comes through when you need him while Braylon doesn't.

...Seriously? And this I'm guessing was undoubtedly proven when he got the Super Bowl MVP?

If Holmes truly was that valuable then the Steelers probably wouldn't trade him after his best season.

[Sperm Edwards]

Holmes comes through when you need him while Braylon doesn't.

Didn't Edwards have an 80-yard TD in the championship game?

Justin friggin' McCareins started 45 games for the Jets over 4 of the past 6 seasons. We gave up a pick in the top half of round 2 for the privilege of giving him a contract for tens of millions of dollars.

We played a quarter of last season with Chauncey Stuckey as a starter.

How did we as fans become so spoiled so fast at the WR position that we're poo-poo'ing over having Braylon Edwards on the team for low dollars over 2 years and a pair of picks in the bottom half of rounds 3 and 5, with no cap-busting accelerated hit if we cut ties with him?

[Bruce Banner]

...Seriously? And this I'm guessing was undoubtedly proven when he got the Super Bowl MVP?

If Holmes truly was that valuable then the Steelers probably wouldn't trade him after his best season.

Jay Cutler.

[Bruce Banner]

Didn't Edwards have an 80-yard TD in the championship game?

Justin friggin' McCareins started 45 games for the Jets over 4 of the past 6 seasons. We gave up a pick in the top half of round 2 for the privilege of giving him a contract for tens of millions of dollars.

We played a quarter of last season with Chauncey Stuckey as a starter.

How did we as fans become so spoiled so fast at the WR position that we're poo-poo'ing over having Braylon Edwards on the team for low dollars over 2 years and a pair of picks in the bottom half of rounds 3 and 5, with no cap-busting accelerated hit if we cut ties with him?

I expect pro athletes to be able to do things I can't do. Otherwise just start Brucie. Seriously, the only WR in the pros or D1 college who catches the ball by trapping it against his chest is Braylon Edwards. Good high school players don't do that.

[PS17]

The top guys in the league generally have better QB's throwing to them than a revolving door of Charlie Frye Derek Anderson, Brady Quinn, and a rookie Mark Sanchez.

Last year Lee Evans was at 46%. Does he suck or are his QB's just Trent Edwards and Ryan Fitzpatrick? How about Steve Smith (Car) tipping the scales at 51% with Delhomme and Matt Moore? Calvin Johnson at under 50% also.

The problem with a dumb stat like that is it assumes every pass thrown is equally catchable. A wobbly duck 10 yards off the mark or thrown out of bounds to avoid a pass rush is counted exactly the same as a perfectly thrown spiral right between the numbers. Any WR stat that weighs those two types of passes equally is not a stat worth paying attention to.

FTW

[Sperm Edwards]

I expect pro athletes to be able to do things I can't do. Otherwise just start Brucie. Seriously, the only WR in the pros or D1 college who catches the ball by trapping it against his chest is Braylon Edwards. Good high school players don't do that.

1. Keyshawn used to do that a lot also. With the Jets; after what was surely a star HS career and after a star USC career and a correspondingly similar draft slot. Sometimes it takes a proper coach to forcefully beat bad habits out of a player as Parcells did with KJ.

2. On a weekly basis I also see other players do that (and see tons of passes bounce off the numbers). I see players unnecessarily jump in the air to trap it into their breadbox all the time.

3. It took me a full 30 seconds straight of staring at your post, trying to figure out which player you meant by Brucie, before I stopped thinking of those in the NFL ranks. Yes this is true.

[Larz]

I expect pro athletes to be able to do things I can't do. Otherwise just start Brucie. Seriously, the only WR in the pros or D1 college who catches the ball by trapping it against his chest is Braylon Edwards. Good high school players don't do that.

where to begin ?

ok

show us your video showing catches like this one

VzpiZ8vOb7w

[dbatesman]

The top guys in the league generally have better QB's throwing to them than a revolving door of Charlie Frye Derek Anderson, Brady Quinn, and a rookie Mark Sanchez.

Last year Lee Evans was at 46%. Does he suck or are his QB's just Trent Edwards and Ryan Fitzpatrick? How about Steve Smith (Car) tipping the scales at 51% with Delhomme and Matt Moore? Calvin Johnson at under 50% also.

The problem with a dumb stat like that is it assumes every pass thrown is equally catchable. A wobbly duck 10 yards off the mark or thrown out of bounds to avoid a pass rush is counted exactly the same as a perfectly thrown spiral right between the numbers. Any WR stat that weighs those two types of passes equally is not a stat worth paying attention to.

Low catch rate doesn't necessarily mean the guy sucks, it means he makes your offense less efficient. If you want to blame that on his QBs, fine, but unless we're discussing the limits of Edwards' potential in some fictive world where he gets to play with Tom Brady, the takeaway is that our QB isn't significantly better than any of the ones you listed so I'm not sure how exactly Sanchez is going to magically conjure the talent that's eluded Frye/Anderson/Quinn.

[Irish Jet]

And if he consistently fails to catch a large percentage of the passes thrown his way, yes, a good portion of it is on him. Maybe it's a drop, maybe it's a crap route, but his catch rate is always lousy, and the extent to which it's partially a function of playing with bad quarterbacks doesn't especially matter because one of said bad quarterbacks is the guy who's going to be throwing to him this year and god forbid thereafter.

What an idiot.

[Irish Jet]

Hey, we've got one of those! Here's hoping we can duplicate Cleveland's success in the subsequent year, amiright?

No Seriously...What a ****ing idiot.

[RutgersJetFan]

...the takeaway is that our QB isn't significantly better than any of the ones you listed so I'm not sure how exactly Sanchez is going to magically conjure the talent that's eluded Frye/Anderson/Quinn.

And by the time he is better, Edwards won't even be on the team.

[Irish Jet]

And by the time he is better, Edwards won't even be on the team.

No Mark Sanchez cannot get better. He is a **** NFL QB. Was last year and always will be. I didn't like him coming out of college because he was better looking than me. He was so **** last year and I was right about him. He is a **** QB. He will be **** all his career. ****ing ****head. It's proven that all QB's who are **** in their rookie season will stay ****. Sanchez is ****, his WR's are **** and Wes Welker is the greatest.

****ing Mexicans.

[DMaynard]

They are and they aren't. A guy like Becht (he just sticks out in my head) had pathetic hands.

With Edwards it's either concentration or he needs contact lenses. But a guy with "pathetic" hands could never make the impossible circus catches he hauls in.

A player like Becht could never become a great receiver (even as a TE). Someone like Edwards could be great.

Bingo.

I said it last year. The guy has great hands. He loses sight of the ball. It is either a general vision problem or specifically, a depth perception problem. At least that is what the problem looks like when you see a lofted downfield pass bounce off of his helmet, on another long pass he jumps a split second too soon, or he closes his hands a split second after the ball hits him in the gut.

This guy has great potential. Just fix those Betty Davis eyes!!!

[SenorGato]

Low catch rate doesn't necessarily mean the guy sucks, it means he makes your offense less efficient. If you want to blame that on his QBs, fine, but unless we're discussing the limits of Edwards' potential in some fictive world where he gets to play with Tom Brady, the takeaway is that our QB isn't significantly better than any of the ones you listed so I'm not sure how exactly Sanchez is going to magically conjure the talent that's eluded Frye/Anderson/Quinn.

I'm fairly comfortable with the idea that Sanchez is and will be a better QB than all 3 of those guys combined. I'm even comfortable with the idea that he'll improve next year...partially because he'll have Edwards (and Cotch, Keller, Holmes, LT).

I'm not even sure why that's even an issue...those 3 guys really, really suck and weren't rookies when they were sucking.

[Aten]

What an idiot.

And this is the rewrite. Forgotten the three-line rule, have we?

[Bruce Banner]

EJq1hdPk74Y

Were talkin' about practice.

[Big_Slick]

...Seriously? And this I'm guessing was undoubtedly proven when he got the Super Bowl MVP?

If Holmes truly was that valuable then the Steelers probably wouldn't trade him after his best season.

We stole him for a 5th because of Ben the rapist. The Steelers had to sacrifice someone to save face and make a statement.

Huge props to Mike T. for seizing the opportunity.

[SenorGato]

We stole him for a 5th because of Ben the rapist. The Steelers had to sacrifice someone to save face and make a statement.

Huge props to Mike T. for seizing the opportunity.

They were going to release Holmes by many accounts...I'm sure he was unwanted there for more reasons than Roethlisberger getting accused again...He was benched twice in '08 by Tomlin...Should I guess it's because Roethlisberger got laid the nights before?

[Sperm Edwards]

Low catch rate doesn't necessarily mean the guy sucks, it means he makes your offense less efficient. If you want to blame that on his QBs, fine, but unless we're discussing the limits of Edwards' potential in some fictive world where he gets to play with Tom Brady, the takeaway is that our QB isn't significantly better than any of the ones you listed so I'm not sure how exactly Sanchez is going to magically conjure the talent that's eluded Frye/Anderson/Quinn.

Also take into account the types of receivers. Welker has 10x the predictability with his hands that Edwards has. But even putting that aside, a guy who mostly runs 5-8 yard patterns is going to catch a higher percentage of his passes than a guy who goes on deeper routes far more frequently like Edwards (Edwards yards per reception are and have always been 50-60% higher than Welker's).

But note:

"Efficiency" in Cleveland went down after Edwards left.

Stuckey 45%, Massoquoi 36%, Robiskie 35%. Furrey was up at 59% and Cribbs 54% but those two only run 5 yard patterns (hardly comparable) and Stuckey not much more.

Randy Moss catch rate:

Oakland 2005: 48% (Collins)

Oakland 2006: 43% (Walter and Brooks)

New England 2007: 61% (Brady)

New England 2008: 55% (Cassel)

New England 2009: 61% (Brady)

No pattern to detect here.

Donte Stallworth catch rate:

New England 2007: 62% (Brady)

Cleveland 2008: 37% (Anderson-Dorsey-Quinn-Gradkowski)

No pattern to detect here either.

Brandon Stokley Indy 2005-2006: 70% (P.Manning)

Brandon Stokley Denver 2007-2008: 57% (Cutler)

Sensing anything?

Lee Evans is all over the map from year to year 60% to 49% to 62% to 46%. Does the guy only have good hands in even-numbered years and terrible hands in odd-numbered years, or did the percentage of catchable passes thrown to him simply vary based on the throws themselves?

Sidney Rice's "efficiency" jumped from 48% in '08 to 69% in '09. No one could have seen that coming as his QB went from Tavaris Jackson-Gus Frerotte to Brett Favre.

But sure, it has nothing to do with the QB.

This doesn't mean I don't think Edwards has some serious issues with dropping some easy passes because clearly he does. It just means that it's a stupid stat to assign too much weight to until the day comes when every player gets to play with similarly efficient and accurate QB's.

[KSJets]

Also take into account the types of receivers. Welker has 10x the predictability with his hands that Edwards has. But even putting that aside, a guy who mostly runs 5-8 yard patterns is going to catch a higher percentage of his passes than a guy who goes on deeper routes far more frequently like Edwards (Edwards yards per reception are and have always been 50-60% higher than Welker's).

But note:

"Efficiency" in Cleveland went down after Edwards left.

Stuckey 45%, Massoquoi 36%, Robiskie 35%. Furrey was up at 59% and Cribbs 54% but those two only run 5 yard patterns (hardly comparable) and Stuckey not much more.

Randy Moss catch rate:

Oakland 2005: 48% (Collins)

Oakland 2006: 43% (Walter and Brooks)

New England 2007: 61% (Brady)

New England 2008: 55% (Cassel)

New England 2009: 61% (Brady)

No pattern to detect here.

Donte Stallworth catch rate:

New England 2007: 62% (Brady)

Cleveland 2008: 37% (Anderson-Dorsey-Quinn-Gradkowski)

No pattern to detect here either.

Brandon Stokley Indy 2005-2006: 70% (P.Manning)

Brandon Stokley Denver 2007-2008: 57% (Cutler)

Sensing anything?

Lee Evans is all over the map from year to year 60% to 49% to 62% to 46%. Does the guy only have good hands in even-numbered years and terrible hands in odd-numbered years, or did the percentage of catchable passes thrown to him simply vary based on the throws themselves?

Sidney Rice's "efficiency" jumped from 48% in '08 to 69% in '09. No one could have seen that coming as his QB went from Tavaris Jackson-Gus Frerotte to Brett Favre.

But sure, it has nothing to do with the QB.

This doesn't mean I don't think Edwards has some serious issues with dropping some easy passes because clearly he does. It just means that it's a stupid stat to assign too much weight to until the day comes when every player gets to play with similarly efficient and accurate QB's.

Great post Skippy

[SenorGato]

Kellen Winslow also wasn't very efficient in Cleveland...55% and 52% in '07 and '08...in '09 with the Bucs it was 61%. What does it mean?

[SoFlaJets]

Braylon

[Sperm Edwards]

Braylon