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FA Guards and W/R rankings per PFF


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Incognito is a probowler.  Adding him to our roster not only bolsters our OL, but it sticks it to the fish.  What's not to like?

woody would have to get Manish's approval....probably not happening.
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http://turnonthejets.com/2013/12/guard-new-york-jets-countdown-2014-offseason/

 

The New York Jets could have as many as twelve draft picks in 2014. As they stand right now, the Jets have $25,861,726 in cap space. With expected cuts of Santonio Holmes, Mark Sanchez, and Antonio Cromartie, the Jets should have $51,911,726 in cap space. That gives them a lot of room to work with.

This is a four part series. It will cover four offensive positions of need (QB, WR, TE, & G), free agent scouting reports, and draft options. This week, guard.



See Part One on the Quarterback, here.

Many would argue that guard is the least glamorous position in football. They may be right, but that doesn’t justify this classification. The guard plays as integral a role as any other offensive lineman. The guard is responsible for pulling and speed blocking, making their contribution to big plays invaluable.

As a unit, the Jets offensive line started the season strong getting good push off the line and playing Rex Ryan brand physical football. However, over the second half of the season the offensive line play has dropped precipitously. The decline of Nick Mangold and D’Brickashaw Ferguson has gotten most of the headlines and rightly so. After four to five years of all-pro level production from this duo, their fall from grace has been disheartening. Both have failed to adapt to their waning athleticism and develop a way to compensate. Mangold has been faring better than Ferguson in general, but neither man’s play has inspired future confidence.

Despite the decline in play at left tackle and center, guard is the most immediate concern. Mangold and Ferguson are serviceable for the time being and they are far from the weakest link. Willie Colon, while not a world beater, has been serviceable. Nolan described him by saying:


If nothing else, Willie Colon is consistent. You know he’s going to have a couple knockdowns and will be pretty good in pass protection for the majority of the game. You also know that he will be good for a penalty or two and a few run plays where he just doesn’t move his feet.

This might not be a ringing endorsement, but consistency is important. Keeping him around might not be the worst idea. The major hole in the line is at left guard. The Jets started the year off with Vlad Ducasse manning the spot but it seems the book on him is written; can get good push in the run game and can handle power lineman (see the Vince Wilfork aberration) but struggles with speed rushers and technique. In short, he is a one trick pony. Not a good quality for an offensive lineman.

After the coaching staff finally pulled the cord on Ducasse, Brian WInters was swapped in. The third round pick couldn’t be worse than Vlad ‘The Turnstile’ Ducasse, right? Wrong. Brian ‘Nothing But Air’ Winters struggles in nearly every aspect of the game. He fails to get his feet set and has a high pad level. Winters does display some of the physical tools and aggression that it takes to play offensive line at the pro level. However, one has to imagine a long development with how behind he is technically. There is no patience in the modern NFL and, with that in mind, lets take a look at the 2014 free agents:

John Greco (CLE): Greco is part of one of the best unit’s in football. Surely, playing next to a talent like Joe Thomas doesn’t hurt but Greco has a resume all his own. He displays elite awareness and hardly ever misses a block. Greco has a good punch that can stun the defender. He is explosive off the ball and gets good push. He is limited athletically but outstanding technique and awareness have made him a top tier guard in the NFL.

Jon Asamoah (KC): Asamoah brings superb athleticism to the guard position. He is quick off the ball and agile, though does not display not elite strength. Like Greco, Asamoah’s awareness is through the roof. He uses good hand placement and has good pad level. What makes Asamoah particularly intriguing is his versatility. He has shown an ability to play just about any spot on the line.

Zane Beadles (DEN): Beadles helps anchor a unit that has given up a league low fifteen sacks on the season (though Manning’s quick release may have something to do with that). He is able to hold ground against power moves in the passing game. Beadles uses his angles well when he knows his assignment but has displayed poor blitz pick up. He shines against interior rushers but struggles when speed rushers stunt inside.

Geoff Schwartz (KC): Another Chief, Schwartz would likely be the cheapest of these options. Schwartz was a sixteen game starter with the Panthers in 2010 but, after a devastating hip injury, he has struggled. He missed the entire 2011 season and lost the Vikings starting job in 2012. Schwartz started at left guard weeks one, four, twelve, thirteen, and fourteen for the injured Chief Jeff Allen and has played admirably.



Top 5 2014 Draft Prospects (CBS Sports):

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings/2014/OG

David Yankey – Stanford, 6’5″, 314

Cyril Richardson – Baylor, 6’5″, 340

Zack Martin – Notre Dame, 6’4″ 308

Xavier Su’a-FIlo – UCLA, 6’3″, 305

Anthony Steen – Alabama, 6’2″, 310


11 thoughts on “New York Jets Countdown to the 2014 Offseason: Guard”

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Wait, WTF? Why are you trying to address a position that does not need to be adressed? You should have looked at a replacement for Ferguson more than a replacement for Winters. You can live with a bad left guard, assuming your QB does simple things like recognizes pressure, sees the blitz, and releases the ball right after he finishes his drop and sets his feet. You cannot survive in this league with your OT giving up multiple sacks and pressures per game from the QB’s blindside. Ferguson’s transgressions are much less forgiveable and hurt much more than Winters’s.

My guess is that this article was meant to be light-hearted; instead, it was light-minded. (Why is OT not part of the series if you are just imagining fantasy rosters?) A deeper analysis would show that your priorities are wrong.

Another way of looking at the future salary cap is we only have $51,911,726 to spend. With that money (which we get by dumping our #1 receiver and our #1 corner) we must: extend Wilkerson (~9-10 million dollars), extend Howard (~$3-4 million dollars), and get a replacement #1 receiver (pretty much just earmark all the savings we get from Holmes). These are musts, and they eat up close to half of all potential cap space.After that, we still need to get a replacement for Pace (cannot depend on a rookie to step into all his duties), address the “no starters at safety” situation, again, extend Colon, get a veteran QB to start under center, see if we can get a veteran TE on the cheap or if we have to suffer another year with Cumberland, and set aside enough money to sign 12 rookies. Gee, that cap goes by fast! This looks like another year in which depth players will be a pipe dream.

The $51 million will not be enough to avoid compromise, so we will likely have the same running backs behind the same offensive line, protecting a second-tier FA QB, throwing to a younger #1 receiver with the same WR corps behind him and a second-tier TE FA. On defense, we will have the same front seven, but hopefully with a younger, faster OLB in Pace’s place, and a secondary that consists of youth and potential with Milliner, Walls, Wilson, and Berry supported by Allen and a new FS. Rookies will, again, need to provide a kick at whatever positions we draft them to make it seem like something changed from this year.

In the midst of all this, the thing you think is holding the team back is Winters. “There is no patience in the modern NFL” is preached only by the advocates of impatience. There is no money in the salary cap to improve a position at which you have adequate production and long-term potential.

The two questions that need to be asked about Winters are: 1) Can he be on the field at his present level? 2) What are the roots of his struggles? 2b) To what extent can they be fixed?

Winters is playing at the level of a below average guard. This is not Lake Wobegone where everyone is above average. He does not fall into the bottom ten percent of your roster, so you can provide him competition, but should not actively seek to replace him.

More pointedly, the root of his problem is in his adjustment to the pros. Winters was a tackle in a weaker conference.The players he faced were not top-end and they were college edge rushers that weigh between 220 and 280 lbs. He comes to the pros, and he needs to fend off 340 lbs. of elite talent and decades of experience. There is a power gap. There is a technique gap. There is a transition gap. But the most important gap is in conditioning.

For a lineman, power and technique are directly related to conditioning. Playing with a low pad level and moving your legs requires the endurance to maintain a squat that can continuously transfer power from your legs to your upper body and from your upper body to your legs. Winters does not have the endurance, so he keeps using an awkward posture to compensate for the power-generation, which cuts off any chance for the proper technique. It also disrupts his balance, making it hard to move his feet. Even if he was able to move his feet, he would not be able to transfer any power into his step, which requires the lower squat. But this is nothing that six months of strength training cannot cure.

Winters is not Ducasse. With Ducasse, we had a guard that could not recognize attacks. He could not adjust to a stunt, which requires defending your gaps without pursuing too far, or late blitzes, which requires disengaging from helping a teammate and going to guard your gap. Plus, Ducasse was skilled at rotating his men around him, which creates holes for a running back, but sacks your QB. Winters reads and reacts and then gets blown back, but at least he usually gets in the guy’s way. With Winters, you see the aggression and the recognition and you will see the power and the technique with an offseason of work.
 

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Obvious the day Eric Decker signs with the Jets would be like a parade in the streets. not happening.

 

Disagree.  We'd have to overpay to get him, and he's more of a WR2.  That's how he looked with Tebow.  With Peyton of course he looked like a WR1, like everyone else Peyton Manning throws to.

 

Also, Decker would be insane to come play with Geno Smith when he could easily go play with Rodgers or Luck, whose teams have cap space too.

 

Give me Tate, who has produced in a run-first system like ours.

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Disagree.  We'd have to overpay to get him, and he's more of a WR2.  That's how he looked with Tebow.  With Peyton of course he looked like a WR1, like everyone else Peyton Manning throws to.

 

Also, Decker would be insane to come play with Geno Smith when he could easily go play with Rodgers or Luck, whose teams have cap space too.

 

Give me Tate, who has produced in a run-first system like ours.

 

Why wouldn't Tate be insane to come play with Geno Smith when he could easily go play with Rodgers or Luck whose teams have cap space too?

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Why wouldn't Tate be insane to come play with Geno Smith when he could easily go play with Rodgers or Luck whose teams have cap space too?

 

The Idzik/Seahawk connection?  I dunno, not my job to persuade a free agent.  Decker just strikes me as a "Needs to play with a great QB to continue to produce at a high level and undeservedly make WR1 money" guy. 

 

Moreover, I'd prefer to slightly overpay Tate rather than Decker.

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The Idzik/Seahawk connection?  I dunno, not my job to persuade a free agent.  Decker just strikes me as a "Needs to play with a great QB to continue to produce at a high level and undeservedly make WR1 money" guy. 

 

Moreover, I'd prefer to slightly overpay Tate rather than Decker.

 

Overpaying is overpaying, but that I get.  It's just every year we see guys determine the price they think FAs will get and then tell us they should sign so and so "for less" because they are the better player.  I'm pretty sure the league is as skeptical of Decker without Manning as we are. We will probably need to put up a little extra compared to others to get either because the Jets are not a WR happy environment.  Maybe Mornhinweg will convince some otherwise - Maclin comes here on a short deal to prove he is healthy and put up numbers to get a huge deal?  Doubtful.  I just think we will probably have to pay Tate as much as Decker. 

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The Idzik/Seahawk connection?  I dunno, not my job to persuade a free agent.  Decker just strikes me as a "Needs to play with a great QB to continue to produce at a high level and undeservedly make WR1 money" guy. 

 

Moreover, I'd prefer to slightly overpay Tate rather than Decker.

 

Wouldn't Tate's Seahawk connection be a bit stronger, you know, with the Seahawks ;)  I like Tate a lot, I've been saying for the entire year that I feel his best football is in front of him, but if contracts are equal, I'm taking Decker.  However, I don't feel their contracts will be equal, as Decker's inflated value due to Manning will be a bit prohibitve. 

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Overpaying is overpaying, but that I get.  It's just every year we see guys determine the price they think FAs will get and then tell us they should sign so and so "for less" because they are the better player.  I'm pretty sure the league is as skeptical of Decker without Manning as we are. We will probably need to put up a little extra compared to others to get either because the Jets are not a WR happy environment.  Maybe Mornhinweg will convince some otherwise - Maclin comes here on a short deal to prove he is healthy and put up numbers to get a huge deal?  Doubtful.  I just think we will probably have to pay Tate as much as Decker. 

 

I think it's more possible than you imagine. Maclin has stated his preference is to resign with Philadelphia, but coming off an injury, he has admitted he understands the business aspect and knows he may have to sign a one year "prove-it" deal. I think it's more likely Philly signed Cooper long term and Maclin to a one year deal, but it's definitely an option.

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Wouldn't Tate's Seahawk connection be a bit stronger, you know, with the Seahawks ;)

 

Ha!  Of course, but they paid Percy Harvin to be their WR1 and I imagine they'll keep Doug Baldwin (RFA) as their WR2.  So where does that leave Tate?  Turning to the open market, that's where.

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Ha!  Of course, but they paid Percy Harvin to be their WR1 and I imagine they'll keep Doug Baldwin (RFA) as their WR2.  So where does that leave Tate?  Turning to the open market, that's where.

 

Just busting balls. You're right, he probably does hit the open market if Schneider is smart. Even though they're most likely going to dump rice, they're going to have to sign Sherman, Earl Thomas, Chancelor and Russell Wilson in the next couple of years, so I'm not sure they want that much money tied up in receivers. They have Wilson at one more year at a low base-rate, so maybe Schneider decides to go all in for this short window, who knows.  All things being equal, I still think I take Decker.  

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I think it's more possible than you imagine. Maclin has stated his preference is to resign with Philadelphia, but coming off an injury, he has admitted he understands the business aspect and knows he may have to sign a one year "prove-it" deal. I think it's more likely Philly signed Cooper long term and Maclin to a one year deal, but it's definitely an option.

 

I know it's possible.  That is why I imagined it, but the guy is more likely to make future $$ off a one year deal with Foles and Chip Kelly than Geno. 

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You act like 1 season results in a "trend".  You are agenda-rific.

 

this league in general never has enough sample size. Only 16 games to judge a player. Only 1 year to judge a GM. 

 

 Idzik is not going to buy a FA on day 1. He will be BAP in the draft to a ridiculous extent. (BAA Best available athlete in rd1). he will give players like Winters every opportunity to win a starting job. There are trends there.

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Just busting balls. You're right, he probably does hit the open market if Schneider is smart. Even though they're most likely going to dump rice, they're going to have to sign Sherman, Earl Thomas, Chancelor and Russell Wilson in the next couple of years, so I'm not sure they want that much money tied up in receivers. They have Wilson at one more year at a low base-rate, so maybe Schneider decides to go all in for this short window, who knows. 

 

Especially not seeing as they're a run-first team.  And they seem to know what they're doing when it comes to scouting receivers.

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this league in general never has enough sample size. Only 16 games to judge a player. Only 1 year to judge a GM. 

 

 Idzik is not going to buy a FA on day 1. He will be BAP in the draft to a ridiculous extent. (BAA Best available athlete in rd1). he will give players like Winters every opportunity to win a starting job. There are trends there.

 

Trend.  We have seen him operate exactly one off-season, and a need-filled, cap restricted one at that.  

 

While he might not be a day-1 shopper, and the Seattle front office trend models as such, (2012, they signed guys on day-2, and last year they waited two days to sign Cliff Avril and Leon Washington), lets not discount the Rex effect.  He of the, "lets fly to his house and wake him up to display our interest" school of thought.  Given our current needs, and available spending limit, we might have private jets flying all over the place come March 11. 

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Before anyone drives themselves nuts going down the rabbit hole with bit, let me just provide a friendly reminder of this exchange:

the Jets are trending up and the Panthers are trending down.

Lose three in a row, then win one: trending up

Win eight in a row, then lose one: trending down

a team could lose 100 games in a row, win one and they are technically trending up. it depends on how you define the window of evaluation.

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No reason not to do both.

 

+1

 

They should be bringing in 3 viable WRs.  IMO they had 3 NFL WRs on the the 2013 team.  Hill, Kerley and Holmes.  Holmes is gone which leaves them with 2.  These other guys *may* show something, but they should be forced into serious competition.  Nelson, Gates and Salas can be on the team, but not all of them at once. They should be fighting for spots. Hell, they should be fighting for one spot. 

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so simpson likes to flip over everything, and is coming off a DWI bust

 

are all these WR's nuts ?

You ever hear CHRIS CARTER on espn talk about WR's? The way he describes them, he pretty much infers that they are not the same Genus or Species as a "normal" Human being.

 

Take it for what its worth as he was the President of the RANDY MOSS apologist club.

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+1

They should be bringing in 3 viable WRs. IMO they had 3 NFL WRs on the the 2013 team. Hill, Kerley and Holmes. Holmes is gone which leaves them with 2. These other guys *may* show something, but they should be forced into serious competition. Nelson, Gates and Salas can be on the team, but not all of them at once. They should be fighting for spots. Hell, they should be fighting for one spot.

I'd put Hill with the second group and Nelson with the first.

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Crazy D Milliner was the #1 ranked CB on PFF for the month of December, and was also the highest targeted CB (38 times), I think that is a big deal, and should shut up the "it was a fluke, I still think he stinks" crowd!

Agreed he had a good month. I would like to see him improving next year,. Rex claims he struggled because he missed the ota and camp. Lets see what he can do with full offseason

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