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Mel Kiper's msg to the jets ~ ~ ~


kelly

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My biggest fear.

Mariota, Fowler, Cooper, White. GONE.

lot of good players left but it makes it much tougher to choose?

Whos the choice in that scenario?

Ray? Beasley? Dupree? Trae? Scherff? Gregory? Williams?

 

Id be very very happy with beasley, dupree and co. as our choices. In your scenario, Id jump on dupree.

 

Im praying fowler falls to us.Been too long (ever?) that weve had 15+ sack potential from the OLB position. Forget the 15+, when have we had a playmaker-disrupter-gotta-gameplan-for like fowler? I know college doesnt always translate to the pros but when was the last time we had an OLB produce on the field like fowler did for the gators?

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My biggest fear.

Mariota, Fowler, Cooper, White. GONE.

lot of good players left but it makes it much tougher to choose?

Whos the choice in that scenario?

Ray? Beasley? Dupree? Trae? Scherff? Gregory? Williams?

I prefer someone in that 1st 5 that are gone in this scenario. So if this happens I hope to god a team behind us wants to move up for someone in this group that they absolutely love.

I could see Willams or Scherff as players another team might covet.

Or would it be crazy to draft Williams to protect against Big Mo & his agent getting too greedy?

You pick Williams, you could slide Mo to end & trade Coples.

It's a legitimate fear because it very well could happen. Not sure I'm sold on Beasley yet. In this case I'd probably go with Ray.

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This thinking is why we have not had a franchise qb in 40 years. Sometimes you have to throw conventional wisdom out the window. If they really think this kid can be special, but needs a little seasoning, then they have to take him if he is there. For the record I don't think it will take 2 or 3 years as this is a very smart and hard working kid.

Fitz and Geno, with the upgrades we have made on both sides of the ball (to be continued in the draft) will have a team that is talented enough to compete for a wild card playoff spot. In a year Mariota will be able to challenge for the starting job. If he wins it, we keep Fitz as the back up and see if we can move Geno. We have not gone to a Super Bowl in forever, another year or two is not going to kill any of us.

THIS THINKING is why we haven't won a SB in over 40 years. A top 10 pick at any position, QB or otherwise has to be able to start right away. That's the definition. Especially with how quickly rookie QB's have been progressing in the NFL in the last 5 years. Seattle has a 3rd rounder who was spectacular from day one and we can afford to take a top 10 pick and sit him for a year... OR TWO? In what fantasy world does this float?

There are a number of outside pass rushers that will be waiting for us at 6. We have a HUGE need at that position. How do we have the luxury of taking a project QB instead? That's a legitimate question.

Also, we just hit the complete reset button as an organization. First time Woody has ever done it as an owner. You have to think these things out a few steps ahead.

Step 1..... The face of our new regime becomes a high profile top 10 draft pick QB

Step 2..... The biggest media market in the NFL does nothing but focus on when the Mariota era will begin

Step 3..... He is completely incapable of starting week 1

Step 4..... The Bills come out of the gates winning games

Step 5..... We go 1-4 to start the season with Fitz starting

Step 6..... The media pressure forces Mariota in mid season and he's a compete disaster

Step 7..... The Bills and Pats make the playoffs and we are at the bottom of the division again

Step 8..... Macc and Bowles are attacked for waisting a top 10 pick on a player who wasn't ready/ Rex is a hero

Step 9..... 2015 starts with a GM and HC on the hot seat, a pair of 30 something CB's draining 25 million from our cap, a shell shocked 2nd year QB who's teammates don't have faith in, and a fan base buying billboards and crap.

Or, we find a way to land Cutler or Rivers, combine him with the roster we have now, we get back to the post season, and we still land a game changing pass rusher with our #6 pick and continue to develop Geno and a rookie like Garrett Grayson or Bryan Bennett while a proven vet mans the wheel for the next two or three years.

I am 100% convinced that we offered this years 4th and next years 2nd (conditionally of coarse) San Diego ships Rivers east, especially since he has made it clear publicly that he isn't interested in an extension. It's a hefty price, but guys like him don't grow on trees.

That's the solution. Not drafting a project player into this media market just to watch him crash and burn. Yet again.

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If it's not Mariota, I want Fowler!

Super productive player with amazing closing speed! Go watch clips of this guy & watch him close in on a QB or even tackling RBs.

Once he has the player in his sites it's like the next 3 steps are incredibly explosive through the wrap up tackle.

I just imagine how good this front can be bringing him along slowly on 3rd downs & watch him get more time as the year progresses to force Pace or Babin to the bench or to the street.

Of course because Fowler is the guy I want he'll be off the board before us. I just think in this draft you can get a VERY GOOD WR at 37.

OLB- WR- RB in 1st, 2nd, 3rd. I'd be very happy.

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Not with a First Round pick of #6. This type of pick is expected to be an productive player, if your belief he is only 50/50 this is a wasted pick.

Every top 6 rated pick in this draft is 50/50. Show me one that isn't? You name one guy and I will name 5 similarly labeled players in recent previous drafts that were busts. Even the DT from USC. Here are three without even looking. Dewayne Robertson, Gerard Warren, and Dan Wilkinson.

Every pick is a roll of the dice except for a Calvin Johnson or Andrew Luck, of which there are none in 2015.

50/50 for a franchise QB is WAY worth an early first. Take the friggin' QB!!!!

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Not with a First Round pick of #6. This type of pick is expected to be an productive player, if your belief he is only 50/50 this is a wasted pick.

It actually means there's a 50% chance the team will be set at QB for the next 15 years.

What if we take Fowler and he becomes the next JJ Watt? How has Houston been?

By the way, your also assuming whoever else we take at 6 is a lock. Which, as we know, is exceptionally far from the truth.

It's simple risk and reward. The reward of hitting on a QB is massive. Which means it's worth taking a Larger risk.

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It actually means there's a 50% chance the team will be set at QB for the next 15 years.

What if we take Fowler and he becomes the next JJ Watt? How has Houston been?

By the way, your also assuming whoever else we take at 6 is a lock. Which, as we know, is exceptionally far from the truth.

It's simple risk and reward. The reward of hitting on a QB is massive. Which means it's worth taking a Larger risk.

Yahtzee!

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It actually means there's a 50% chance the team will be set at QB for the next 15 years.

What if we take Fowler and he becomes the next JJ Watt? How has Houston been?

By the way, your also assuming whoever else we take at 6 is a lock. Which, as we know, is exceptionally far from the truth.

It's simple risk and reward. The reward of hitting on a QB is massive. Which means it's worth taking a Larger risk.

How did you arrive at this 50% figure?

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If it's not Mariota, I want Fowler!

Super productive player with amazing closing speed! Go watch clips of this guy & watch him close in on a QB or even tackling RBs.

Once he has the player in his sites it's like the next 3 steps are incredibly explosive through the wrap up tackle.

I just imagine how good this front can be bringing him along slowly on 3rd downs & watch him get more time as the year progresses to force Pace or Babin to the bench or to the street.

Of course because Fowler is the guy I want he'll be off the board before us. I just think in this draft you can get a VERY GOOD WR at 37.

OLB- WR- RB in 1st, 2nd, 3rd. I'd be very happy.

I think Fowler just might be the pick. I'd be pleased with this.

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How did you arrive at this 50% figure?

We are arguing with BocaJet... he is the one that used 50/50. Look a few posts higher.

It would also do you some good to come to terms with the idea that teams do not win Super Bowls without franchise QBs. The exceptions are Brad Johnson and Dilfer. However, they were quality leaders with a great running game, and great defenses, and they did not turn the ball over recklessly.

Gemo Smith possesses neither quality and Fitz might have one out of two.

Mariota is good enough to take a shot. If you can't at least see that, you are blind.

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LOL.  nicely played.  

 

Best case scenario is that I win the lottery this week.  About as likely as ever being able to trade Geno for picks.  But it is a "best case" scenario... no matter how delusional.  

 

No the best case scenario is you get hit by a bus.  I guess I am being "delusional" again, lol.

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How do you know?

Because he is "not" blind. Everyone else "is blind".

Statistics say that blind people make bad evaluators in NFL drafts.

People who are not blind make absolute great decisions.

It's really that simple.

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Here's Greg Cosell on Mariota. (I couldn't cut and paste the article because Yahoo is the absolute worst). http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/greg-cosell-s-nfl-draft-preview--qb-marcus-mariota-s-pro-transition-170059763.html

 

 

Anyway, it's reflective of all the Mariota analysis going on right now: He has a good arm...but doesn't really show it; His arm will get better if...; He can play in a pro system...maybe; He can learn to play from the pocket...probably. 

 

 

If you've read Cosell in the past, you know that Cosell loves to sound imperious and all-knowing, so his incessant equivocating in this article is telling, imo. If you're drafting Mariota, you won't know what kind of NFL player he can be until you're well into camp. You're guessing, and you'd be guessing on a guy without an exceptional arm. 

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Every top 6 rated pick in this draft is 50/50. Show me one that isn't? You name one guy and I will name 5 similarly labeled players in recent previous drafts that were busts. Even the DT from USC. Here are three without even looking. Dewayne Robertson, Gerard Warren, and Dan Wilkinson.

Every pick is a roll of the dice except for a Calvin Johnson or Andrew Luck, of which there are none in 2015.

50/50 for a franchise QB is WAY worth an early first. Take the friggin' QB!!!!

 

 

If he's available I tend to agree w/ you (though we have to trust McChicken and his staff to evaluate MM).  However, I do feel like there is a guaranteed WR in Amari Cooper.  Blazing fast, great route runner, hard worker, produced in college.  I'd be fine if we draft him.

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Btw, I think Gregory is now one of the most interesting players in the draft.  It won't happen because we're the Jets but imagine getting a stud OLB w/ our first pick (I guess people are saying Fowler) and then Gregory in the 2nd round (and Gregory turns into a superstar and never gets suspended)?  We could build a Ravens type D w/ that group.

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So here we are, exactly five weeks to the draft, and the Marcus Mariota speculation continues to build.

 

Would the New York Jets select the Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback if he's available with the sixth pick ? Our man Mel Kiper Jr. believes it's a no-brainer."I would think that, at that point, I don't know how you'd pass him up," the ESPN draft analyst said Thursday on a conference call with reporters. "You're going against Tom Brady. Tom Brady has probably got another five years in him. And Mariota needs a little bit of time. So [Ryan] Fitzpatrick and Geno Smith would give you time to develop Mariota, who, in another two or three years, could be really good."

 

I agree with Kiper. If you're the Jets, starved for a franchise quarterback, you take Mariota and bring him along slowly, which is easier said than done. You know how it is in the New York market; the pressure to play him immediately would be intense.General manager Mike Maccagnan continues to say he will draft the best available player. The top four players, according to a consensus of the top draft experts (including ESPN's Kiper and Todd McShay), are quarterback Jameis Winston, defensive tackle Leonard Williams, wide receiver Amari Cooper and Mariota. If one happens to slip to six, they'd be hard-pressed to pass.

 

Some wonder if the reserved Mariota has the fire to succeed in the NFL. As Kiper noted, Eli Manning and Joe Flacco -- both Super Bowl champions -- aren't exactly animated leaders."I'm not concerned at all about the fact that you're not this rah-rah guy out there," Kiper said of the former Oregon Duck. "He's got a ton of skills, a ton of ability, and if you give him time, I think the Jets would be a perfect team to afford him that opportunity."

 

> http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/jets/post/_/id/50197/mel-kiper-to-jets-dont-duck-qb-marcus-mariota

 

 

 

lol

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  • 2 weeks later...

more from mel...

 

~ ~   Our friend Mel Kiper, Jr. raises some eyebrows with his latest mock draft, particularly those of New York Jets' fans. In his 4.0 version for ESPN, Kiper projects Iowa tackle Brandon Scherff to the Jets with the sixth overall pick.
 

With Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Leonard Williams, Amari Cooper and Dante Fowler, Jr. already gone, Kiper sees the powerful Scherff as a better fit than wide receiver Kevin White or any of the remaining pass rushers. Scherff is seen as one of the safer picks in the draft, but an offensive lineman that high ? We're not talking about a franchise-caliber left tackle here. Yes, he played left tackle at Iowa -- and played it very well -- but he projects as a right tackle or, more likely, a guard in the NFL.

 

The Jets could use a young stud on the offensive line, which seems to slip a notch every year. They signed left guard James Carpenter in free agency, but right guard is a question mark and right tackle Breno Giacomini is coming off a so-so season. The mainstays, Nick Mangold and D'Brickashaw Ferguson, are 31 years old. So, yes, there's a need, but let's not forget, the draft is seven rounds. There's plenty of time to find a guard/tackle.

 

If GM Mike Maccagnan picks Scherff, it'll be a clear case of "best player available." But that doesn't mean he'd be the best pick for the Jets.

 

> http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york-jets/post/_/id/50508/kiper-mock-draft-4-0-jets-select-an-offensive-lineman

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WInston, Williams, Mariota will not be there. If someone were to drop to 6 it would be Cooper because White just might overtake him as the first WR. If Cooper does drop you'd probably have to take him. 

The top 3 picks are easy.  Now maybe the top there teams do not make them.........

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Pretty sure he read the defense just fine when he threw up the 158.3 QB rating he had in his final game last year.

 

Look, the kid is 23 years old, still, maybe just turned 24, he was a young football player that was probably rushed into a starting role too soon, he really isn't any different from Marriota was when he came into the league.

 

I think Geno plays with a bit of a chip on his shoulder, is just tough enough to handle the media, has made silly decisions like all young players do, we need to give this time, time to develop, time to mature, he has all the tools, I just want to see the fan base give him a chance with a couple of years under his belt.  There is promise with Geno, there are warning signs too, but we need to give him more than 2 years to figure it out.

 

If Marriota is there at 6, I probably have no problem going for it, and letting the best of those two rise to the top, we could have a situation with two starting QB's where the team will be forced to move one, that would be most ideal in any scenario where the Jets take a QB early.

 

This nonsense about how the arm-chair GM's and coaches on this board have already written off Geno, it's just premature nonsense.  Some of the arguments are valid against him, but we need to evaluate this kid when he's had a chance to develop and mature, just a little bit.

Actually every GM in Geno's draft had him written off except for Mr. Idzik. 

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