Five Reasons to be Worried About Geno Smith

[Ken Schroy]

The Jets are paying D Revis a lot of money , to play like the Revis Island version. That player doesn't exist anymore, but they have to hope his play doesn't slip a lot more in 2015, or that contract they gave him could be a disaster. Cb on the wrong side of thirty- their skills can deteriorate real fast. The Jets better hope that isn't the case with Revis.

No doubt Revis is capable of making a successful transition to safety- but not at the price you're paying him to be a shutdown cb.

Sure.

BTW the Raiduhs suck.

[Maxman]

Excellent article, I love well researched articles, and I know it's a pain to put them together, so thank you.  

 

I do agree there are certain things to be worried about Geno, especially for some reason when he throws intermediate passes.  One thing I did notice in the Miami game, as opposed to all the other games was the amount of loft he put on the ball, to give his players a better chance of catching the pass.  It was an unusual amount, harking back to the Chad Pennington days, but I'm wondering if it could be an adjustment to add more touch in certain situations to get it over the defender's head.  

 

The time to throw statistic is interesting, but I do think there is a chance for that statistic to be skewed.  Smith tends to run around a fair bit behind the pocket, increasing the clock from snap to throw (as does Wilson, so not surprised he's the highest) for calculations and increasing the average.  It could be something that also ties into the WRs not being open even after a decent amount of time because they can't get away from their defenders.   It'll be interesting to see how the spread system helps him get rid of the ball quicker with pre-snap reads and better players.  

 

Overall, I'm probably in the minority, but I do think Smith has potential, but certainly a lot of areas of concern.  

 

That is exactly where I am at with Smith as well. He has a ton to prove but I am not writing him off yet.

[southparkcpa]

That is exactly where I am at with Smith as well. He has a ton to prove but I am not writing him off yet.

same here....

[Long Island Leprechaun]

That is exactly where I am at with Smith as well. He has a ton to prove but I am not writing him off yet.

Arm issues are the least of my worries with Geno. His bad throws are not the product of limited athleticism but of indecisiveness that leads to play breakdowns. Speed of the game is an issue for Geno. If he can find a way to make quick decisions and stay focused, he has the physical tools. Am I skeptical? Yes. Am I hopeless? Not at all. Geno has a chance, but this year is pretty much his last.

[FSU_Jet]

Harvin was way better than what his numbers indicated.  Got open an awful lot but the ball wasn't delivered...he may have the same issue in Buffalo though.

 

If they can get good QB play with Watkins drawing all the double-teams, you could be right.

 

I'm actually pretty worried about Buffalo's receiving corps this year. I know our secondary rocks, but man, Harvin and Watkins are gonna be tough to cover at all times. Revis can take out one of them by himself, so we better hope that Cro with some safety help can take care of the other.

[AFJF]

I'm actually pretty worried about Buffalo's receiving corps this year. I know our secondary rocks, but man, Harvin and Watkins are gonna be tough to cover at all times. Revis can take out one of them by himself, so we better hope that Cro with some safety help can take care of the other.

 

If their QB play is as bad as ours has been then it shouldn't be a problem, but I laugh every time somebody says Harvin didn't play well here.  He was fine, he just didn't have a QB to get him the ball.

[whodeawhodat]

That is exactly where I am at with Smith as well. He has a ton to prove but I am not writing him off yet.

 

I remember listening to a former QB talk about quarterbacking in the NFL in general and it made a lot of sense to me.  To paraphrase, he said that every QB on every roster has the skills to be an NFL QB.  These QBs have been the best of the best on every level of competition that they have played since peewee football so it isnt so much a matter of skill.  The biggest thing that seperates a Drew Brees from a 3rd string QB is what happens when a play breaks down, and it will.  On nearly every passing play, the defense will take away your first option or bring a blitzer to upset the rythm of your passing play.  The great QBs consistently rise above this adversity and have the ability whether with physical or mental ability to overcome that adversity and make a positve play when the offense is crumbling around them.  In short, it is what separates the men from the boys.  Not sure if Geno will have that or if Fitz has had it.  If I had to guess right now I would say that Fitz has a better chance to succeed in these conditions than Geno.  For the sake of the Jets long term future, I hope the light goes on(and stays on consistently) for Geno.  We will find out soon enough!

[Raideraholic]

I remember listening to a former QB talk about quarterbacking in the NFL in general and it made a lot of sense to me.  To paraphrase, he said that every QB on every roster has the skills to be an NFL QB.  These QBs have been the best of the best on every level of competition that they have played since peewee football so it isnt so much a matter of skill.  The biggest thing that seperates a Drew Brees from a 3rd string QB is what happens when a play breaks down, and it will.  On nearly every passing play, the defense will take away your first option or bring a blitzer to upset the rythm of your passing play.  The great QBs consistently rise above this adversity and have the ability whether with physical or mental ability to overcome that adversity and make a positve play when the offense is crumbling around them.  In short, it is what separates the men from the boys.  Not sure if Geno will have that or if Fitz has had it.  If I had to guess right now I would say that Fitz has a better chance to succeed in these conditions than Geno.  For the sake of the Jets long term future, I hope the light goes on(and stays on consistently) for Geno.  We will find out soon enough!

What separates the average Qb from the great Qb is 1. accuracy- the great ones can throw it where they want consistently, the average one can't 2 anticipation - the average Qb will wait for their offense weapon to get open, while the great Qb will throw that offensive weapon open.3 . ability to read defenses quickly- Know what a defense is doing, and where the football should be thrown. Tap Tap can't make a quick decision is a recipe for failure.

You can have all the arm ability but you can't master those three things, you will never be a top tier Qb . ( those things don't improve with time?

[ljr]

That is exactly where I am at with Smith as well. He has a ton to prove but I am not writing him off yet.

I am giving him training camp & preseason to prove that he is at least equal to jag Fitzpatrick ... If not I hope he shows it from the pine

[slats]

I liked it at the time because I felt like his acquisition would give Geno a shot to work with good enough weapons (Harvin/Decker/Kerley/Amaro) to see if he was the goods.  That's a big reason why the "he didn't have any good players around him" excuse is grossly exaggerated IMO.  He didn't have an all-star team, but he had several capable players around him.

 

Even if Geno had turned out to be a good QB, the thing I didn't like about the move was the timing...it was a few weeks to late to make an impact.

I don't know, I think the Harvin acquisition supports the lack of weapons argument. Geno played a lot better with Harvin and a healthy Decker on the field. Kerley's a jag who gets a lot of love because the Jets have been so terrible at the WR position that he stands out, and Amaro was a pass dropping rookie. He didn't have any backs who could catch (still something of an issue, actually).

With good health, Geno won't have the weapons excuse this year, though. And that's a good thing. If he stumbles it's on him, and he'll be seated.

[ljr]

I remember listening to a former QB talk about quarterbacking in the NFL in general and it made a lot of sense to me.  To paraphrase, he said that every QB on every roster has the skills to be an NFL QB. 

He must never have watched Tim Tebow play then

[munchmemory]

With their QB situation, those 6 receptions may lead the team! LOL!

God willing.   LOL right back at ya.  

 

That is exactly where I am at with Smith as well. He has a ton to prove but I am not writing him off yet.

Max, what if Geno's performance this season is a disaster?   You write him off then?

[Jet9]

I don't know, I think the Harvin acquisition supports the lack of weapons argument. Geno played a lot better with Harvin and a healthy Decker on the field. Kerley's a jag who gets a lot of love because the Jets have been so terrible at the WR position that he stands out, and Amaro was a pass dropping rookie. He didn't have any backs who could catch (still something of an issue, actually).

With good health, Geno won't have the weapons excuse this year, though. And that's a good thing. If he stumbles it's on him, and he'll be seated.

Gotta agree on Kerly. I like the dude, but we, like all fanbaseses do, overrate him. He's......OK.

[AFJF]

I don't know, I think the Harvin acquisition supports the lack of weapons argument. Geno played a lot better with Harvin and a healthy Decker on the field. Kerley's a jag who gets a lot of love because the Jets have been so terrible at the WR position that he stands out, and Amaro was a pass dropping rookie. He didn't have any backs who could catch (still something of an issue, actually).

With good health, Geno won't have the weapons excuse this year, though. And that's a good thing. If he stumbles it's on him, and he'll be seated.

 

So much of  his strong finish depends on how you view the week 17 game against Miami, and his mop-up role against the Bills in the 38-3 blowout.  He killed it in Miami and went 10-12 with 0 TD's against a Bills prevent defense.  Combined, that's 30-37 with 3 TD's and 0 INT's.

 

Other than that he had a slightly improved comp pct and threw 3 TD's and 2 INTs (one pick six) in four games against some of the worst teams in the NFL. 

[Jetsfan80]

Kind of amazing that deep ball accuracy became one of his top 5 weaknesses.  Halfway through his rookie year, Geno was top 5 in the NFL on deep ball throwing.  So now he doesn't even have a quality that he can say he shares with the likes of Joe Flacco.

 

Other than all that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?

[whodeawhodat]

What separates the average Qb from the great Qb is 1. accuracy- the great ones can throw it where they want consistently, the average one can't 2 anticipation - the average Qb will wait for their offense weapon to get open, while the great Qb will throw that offensive weapon open.3 . ability to read defenses quickly- Know what a defense is doing, and where the football should be thrown. Tap Tap can't make a quick decision is a recipe for failure.

You can have all the arm ability but you can't master those three things, you will never be a top tier Qb . ( those things don't improve with time?

 

His point was that they can all be accurate.  Yes, even Tebow probably looks amazing with his QB gurus for the last couple of years while being out of the league.  You read about him working his mechanics so much that it becomes muscle memory and when the live bullets fly it will remain with him.  My guess is that is why chip brought him in.

[32EBoozer]

Today's question: Is there any hope for New York Jets quarterback Geno Smith?

Mike Rodak, Buffalo Bills: About as much as EJ Manuel has in Buffalo. Like Manuel, Smith showed flashes early in his career (remember him tossing for 331 yards against Buffalo back in 2013?), but I just can't see him turning it around in New York. The temptation for Chan Gailey to turn to Ryan Fitzpatrick -- who made the Bills one of the NFL's best offenses for a brief moment in 2011 -- will eventually prove too strong. Smith has a meager 42.3 QBR against AFC East opponents, and now he'll play Rex Ryan's defense twice a year. Think Ryan might know a thing or two about where Smith is vulnerable?

James Walker, Miami Dolphins: The only hope for Smith would be to play all 16 games at Sun Life Stadium in his hometown of Miami. For some reason, Smith is a Pro Bowler in road games against the Dolphins. I've seen him twice under those circumstances, and he was at his best. But there are many more games where I've seen "Bad Geno." I am convinced his inconsistency will hold Smith back from being a franchise quarterback. The Jets cannot win consistently with Smith because he turns the ball over way too much -- he has 34 interceptions and 10 lost fumbles in 30 career games. Smith is athletic and has enough arm talent to be a solid backup quarterback but nothing more. The sooner the Jets realize that, the better.

Mike Reiss, New England Patriots: I don't see it from a long-range perspective. But in the short-term, maybe the Jets have done enough to surround him with solid weapons and the potential for a top-notch defense to create a Trent Dilfer-type 2000 Ravens dynamic; that was the year Baltimore won the Super Bowl, led by its defense. Dilfer and Tony Banks "game managed" the offense and mostly avoided critical mistakes as the Ravens won several low-scoring games. I just have doubts that Smith can consistently avoid those critical mistakes based on what we've seen the past two years.

[JiFtheOracle]

Geno was Idzik's guy and the team was terrible...if Geno had been even a little bit better then he hits Harvin for a few bombs, bumps his numbers up, wins a few more games and possibly saves Idzik's job.  Idzik knew he needed something to be able to hang his hat on and winning some games in the second half with has hand chosen QB would have done that.

 

They were, what?  1-7 when they made the trade?  Nothing was saving his job. 

[slats]

So much of  his strong finish depends on how you view the week 17 game against Miami, and his mop-up role against the Bills in the 38-3 blowout.  He killed it in Miami and went 10-12 with 0 TD's against a Bills prevent defense.  Combined, that's 30-37 with 3 TD's and 0 INT's.

 

Other than that he had a slightly improved comp pct and threw 3 TD's and 2 INTs (one pick six) in four games against some of the worst teams in the NFL.

I'm not saying that a lack of weapons has been Geno's only issue or even his main issue, just that it's been a legitimate issue. That ends this year with Marshall moving every receiver on the roster down a peg, and hopefully Devin Smith seizing the #3 job. Jeremy Kerley dropping from the occasional #1 WR to #4 is a major weapons improvement.

[AFJF]

They were, what?  1-7 when they made the trade?  Nothing was saving his job. 

 

We can guess as to whether or not that's the case but none of us really knows.  My guess would be that if they'd gone 5-3 or 6-2 and Geno played well, he'd still be here.  Again, just me taking a stab but neither of us knows.

[AFJF]

I'm not saying that a lack of weapons has been Geno's only issue or even his main issue, just that it's been a legitimate issue. That ends this year with Marshall moving every receiver on the roster down a peg, and hopefully Devin Smith seizing the #3 job. Jeremy Kerley dropping from the occasional #1 WR to #4 is a major weapons improvement.

 

I agree that he hasn't been surrounded by great talent, but watching some of the All-22's from last year (especially the SD game) he had plenty of open receivers to throw to but he either didn't see them, or he just didn't hit the target.

 

I haven't watched the all-22 from the Chicago game yet, but I specifically recall hearing Mort talk about it a day or two after the game and said Geno wasn't processing the information quickly enough.  He said that there were multiple play calls by MM that had receivers running around in the end zone wide open and Geno either took a sack or threw an incomplete pass, settling for FG's.

[slats]

I agree that he hasn't been surrounded by great talent, but watching some of the All-22's from last year (especially the SD game) he had plenty of open receivers to throw to but he either didn't see them, or he just didn't hit the target.

 

I haven't watched the all-22 from the Chicago game yet, but I specifically recall hearing Mort talk about it a day or two after the game and said Geno wasn't processing the information quickly enough.  He said that there were multiple play calls by MM that had receivers running around in the end zone wide open and Geno either took a sack or threw an incomplete pass, settling for FG's.

This is another Geno excuse that's out the window this year: coaching. Or specifically, taking Geno out of his spread offense in college and expecting him to be able to run a complicated WCO in the pros. There's little doubt that he was thinking way too much out on the field, rather than just playing. Sure, he'll have the excuse this year that he's learning a new offense, but I can't see that excuse buying him more than the first quarter of the season - if that. Not with a capable backup behind him who knows that system.

Basically, Geno is out of excuses this year. He's in a QB friendly system with a lot of talent around him.

[pointman]

I'm actually pretty worried about Buffalo's receiving corps this year. I know our secondary rocks, but man, Harvin and Watkins are gonna be tough to cover at all times. Revis can take out one of them by himself, so we better hope that Cro with some safety help can take care of the other.

you kidding? With Pryor make pretend hard hitting receivers, consider it a lock.

[Jetlife33]

I'm worried guys.

[Jetsfan80]

Basically, Geno is out of excuses this year. He's in a QB friendly system with a lot of talent around him.

 

One would hope, but I can already hear the Chan Gailey complaints if/when he fails.  "He hasn't coached in the NFL in 3 years, what else were we going to expect?"  "There's a reason no one hired him after he got let go by the Bills."  "No QB in the league can operate in the kind of system he's running!"

[bitonti]

According to PFF.com, Smith had more time from snap to throw (3.10 seconds) than any QB in the NFL other than Russell Wilson (3.20).  

 

 

this quote is for anyone who thinks the Jets OL is weak

 

couple that stat with the league's 2nd ranked rushing attack

 

as for Geno, if he was any good Idzik still is the GM.

[Snell41]

The Jets are paying D Revis a lot of money , to play like the Revis Island version. That player doesn't exist anymore, but they have to hope his play doesn't slip a lot more in 2015, or that contract they gave him could be a disaster. Cb on the wrong side of thirty- their skills can deteriorate real fast. The Jets better hope that isn't the case with Revis.

No doubt Revis is capable of making a successful transition to safety- but not at the price you're paying him to be a shutdown cb.

^^^^This ******* guy^^^^^^^^

 

Only you could turn a Geno thread into how Revis' contract could be a disaster...

[Raideraholic]

His point was that they can all be accurate. Yes, even Tebow probably looks amazing with his QB gurus for the last couple of years while being out of the league. You read about him working his mechanics so much that it becomes muscle memory and when the live bullets fly it will remain with him. My guess is that is why chip brought him in.

Well his point is wrong. There is a big jump going from college( wr are wide open) versus the NFL ( much tighter window / coverage a Qb has to throw at). A Qb can either throw it accurately or he can't . It isn't something that you work on your mechanics is going to improve.See Tim Tebow- think he didn't work on his craft but when the bullets fly revert to what feels most comfortable .( like a Pitcher the great ones can put their 95 mile heat where they want to, where the average pitcher can't- that's the difference between average and greatness.).

When the Eagles eventually cut Tim Tebow bring him back as the Jet starting Qb. His throwing mechanics should be real good by now. That was a joke, as Tebow was a great college Qb, but isn't a NFL caliber Qb.( can't throw a football consistently accurate)

[Raideraholic]

^^^^This ******* guy^^^^^^^^

 

Only you could turn a Geno thread into how Revis' contract could be a disaster...

Did you read the whole thread- I would advise you to because it obvious why I made that point in a Geno Smith thread when I did.( self explanatory).

[win4ever]

That is exactly where I am at with Smith as well. He has a ton to prove but I am not writing him off yet.

 

Yeah, I consider this year to be his make or break year because he finally doesn't have any excuses.  The frustrating aspect of all this is the flashes he shows, where he can throw great passes or run in critical spots, but then somehow lags back to being a mistake prone player.  

 

It seemed like a mismatch to begin with.  I was surprised he was passed over in the draft with our first pick that year, which to me suggests that maybe they didn't like the system fit for him (because the tools are there) and figured he wasn't worth the risk.  But it was too much value to pass up for in the second, but then proceeded to not change the system at all.  

[Raideraholic]

Yeah, I consider this year to be his make or break year because he finally doesn't have any excuses.  The frustrating aspect of all this is the flashes he shows, where he can throw great passes or run in critical spots, but then somehow lags back to being a mistake prone player.  

 

It seemed like a mismatch to begin with.  I was surprised he was passed over in the draft with our first pick that year, which to me suggests that maybe they didn't like the system fit for him (because the tools are there) and figured he wasn't worth the risk.  But it was too much value to pass up for in the second, but then proceeded to not change the system at all.

Takes more than just the physical skills to play Qb in the NFL . See Browning Nagle you remember how great he looked in the preseason when defenses were very Vanilla.( second coming of Joe Namath). than regular season comes, and defense looks get a lot more complex. Totally different Qb as his inability to read defenses. Sort of what Geno Smith experience, and why he might never develop into a starting Qb.

There is a big difference what a Qb sees in college( Wr tends to be wide open) where in the Pro's they have to make accurate throws in tight windows.

[GenoandtheJets]

The problems that Geno Smith has at QB is that he throws a lot of interceptions and doesn't make quick decisions and ends up getting sacked for a loss. He's also very inaccurate in trying to target his receivers. He always tries to scramble out of the pocket and ends up losing yardage for the jets. He did have a good last few games last season especially that game at Miami to end the season.

[win4ever]

Takes more than just the physical skills to play Qb in the NFL . See Browning Nagle you remember how great he looked in the preseason when defenses were very Vanilla.( second coming of Joe Namath). than regular season comes, and defense looks get a lot more complex. Totally different Qb as his inability to read defenses. Sort of what Geno Smith experience, and why he might never develop into a starting Qb.

There is a big difference what a Qb sees in college( Wr tends to be wide open) where in the Pro's they have to make accurate throws in tight windows.

 

I do think it takes way more than physical skills to play in the NFL, but it also has to be a good situation around him for QBs to succeed.  Don't really need to go back to Nagle, I think JaMarcus Russel was one of the best physically gifted prospects to come out of in the draft process, but his lack of focus, and the system around him failed to the point that he flamed out quickly.  

 

In Geno's case, or pretty much any QB coming out now, the issue is really the system.  From pop warner onward, these guys are getting more and more used to the spread system, less huddling, more based on half the field reads or picking matchups pre-snap to exploit, so the transition is extremely tough to the NFL because it's a complete change.  The system that Marty ran here was extremely complex in terms of timing, but also dependent on playmakers actually being open on time.  Geno wasn't good with the timing, and the players weren't good with getting open on a consistent basis because they just weren't that talented.  

 

I don't think it's the ability to not throw into tight windows that bother these guys, it's the inclination to not throw into tight windows, and look for other options because they are so used to seeing bigger windows, that many of these QBs hang onto the ball looking around thinking that if this guy is so tightly covered, there must be someone open on the other side.  When that doesn't happen, all of sudden, they are pressured in the pocket, forcing them to take a chance on a sub-optimal throw, and leads to more mistakes.  I'm sure even backups in this league can make throws into tight windows if you told them that was their only option.  In a more spread system, it's all about figuring out which matchup is a one on one matchup, and then trying to exploit that matchup.  And if you have multiple weapons, there are usually multiple one on one matchups on the field, and trying to exploit it.  This jives much better with what QBs are used to in college, so they are much more natural with their instincts.  

[#27TheDominator]

1.  Didn't Geno have very good numbers throwing the deep ball in 2013?  IIRC, that was one of the things people were hanging their hats on going into 2014.  Maybe things just evened out, or teams changed the way they played him

2. I think the time to throw argument is a bit overblown too.  Geno had more time than anybody but Wilson, but was very bad when he had more than 2.5.  That seems to indicate that he is/was not good once the play broke down.  That is not news to anybody, but it also may just indicate that he extended the play without really being able to get anything positive.  You would hope the new coach would consider that and work to correct it. 

3.  You guys really want to act like Revis was burned on that play?  Look at the pictures.  Revis is in his back pocket and actually beats Harvin to the ball.  Sure on the wide open field a pass could/should have been completed, but Revis was all over that.