49ers Trading CB Rashard Robinson to Jets

[section314]

2 minutes ago, Peace Frog said:

I wasn’t even here in 2017 but the amount of obsessive whining going on on this board is astonishing. 

For adult football fans. I can’t even. 

Never heard anybody refer to us in this way.?

[jetstream23]

6 minutes ago, section314 said:

To prove the point, look at the terrible reaction to this years 5th rd pick Cashman.

Agree 100%.  Cashman is a lottery ticket.  Who knows what he'll be.....his ceiling is probably that he becomes an excellent ST player and a backup ILB.  But that's his ceiling.  The likelihood is that he doesn't achieve that at the NFL level.

He's a good example of why taking a calculated risk with a 5th round pick on a guy (like Robinson, Anderson, Marshall) who has had some success in the NFL is just as appropriate as the kinds of calculated risks the team takes on guys like Cashman in the Draft.

[jetstream23]

7 minutes ago, Peace Frog said:

I wasn’t even here in 2017 but the amount of obsessive whining going on on this board is astonishing. 

For adult football fans. I can’t even. 

But can you odd?

 

[section314]

7 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

Agree 100%.  Cashman is a lottery ticket.  Who knows what he'll be.....his ceiling is probably that he becomes an excellent ST player and a backup ILB.  But that's his ceiling.  The likelihood is that he doesn't achieve that at the NFL level.

He's a good example of why taking a calculated risk with a 5th round pick on a guy (like Robinson, Anderson, Marshall) who has had some success in the NFL is just as appropriate as the kinds of calculated risks the team takes on guys like Cashman in the Draft.

Agree. From what I've learned of him so far, sounds like he could help us. But I agree totally with the idea of using a later pick to try to get immediate help at a position of need.

[Jet_Engine1]

12 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

But can you odd?

 

Oh, I can odd like the wind!

[jetstream23]

1 minute ago, section314 said:

Agree. From what I've learned of him so far, sounds like he could help us. But I agree totally with the idea of using a later pick to try to get immediate help at a position of need.

If Osemele works out at OG this may reinforce Macc's belief that he can continue to take this approach, which I'm not sure is a particularly good thing.  But if it keeps working it's hard to complain.  Finding a starting DE and a starting OG in back-to-back years by trading 6th/7th round picks is hard to criticize.  That said, like most people here I really want to see Macc use a Day 2 pick (2nd/3rd Round) on a C or OG prospect, or potentially a 1st on an OT next year (which seems to be a good Draft for Tackles).

[Lith]

17 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

Agree 100%.  Cashman is a lottery ticket.  Who knows what he'll be.....his ceiling is probably that he becomes an excellent ST player and a backup ILB.  But that's his ceiling.  The likelihood is that he doesn't achieve that at the NFL level.

He's a good example of why taking a calculated risk with a 5th round pick on a guy (like Robinson, Anderson, Marshall) who has had some success in the NFL is just as appropriate as the kinds of calculated risks the team takes on guys like Cashman in the Draft.

Agree.  But is it unreasonable to not like a pick who has had multiple shoulder surgeries; along with a pick a round later with multiple knee surgeries.  I have no problem taking an injury risk if you have 8-10 picks; but not when you have 6 picks.  I am not whining; I am just expressing an opinion.

I did not like either pick.  I think the injury risk is valid reason not to like the picks.  It has gotten to the point where anyone who expresses a negative opinion is labelled a whiner/loser/bad fan/sojf.  

Both guys are now Jets.  I am rooting for them.  I hope both of these guys work out.  

[Peace Frog]

29 minutes ago, section314 said:

Never heard anybody refer to us in this way.?

That’s fair. 

[jetstream23]

22 minutes ago, Lith said:

Agree.  But is it unreasonable to not like a pick who has had multiple shoulder surgeries; along with a pick a round later with multiple knee surgeries.  I have no problem taking an injury risk if you have 8-10 picks; but not when you have 6 picks.  I am not whining; I am just expressing an opinion.

I did not like either pick.  I think the injury risk is valid reason not to like the picks.  It has gotten to the point where anyone who expresses a negative opinion is labelled a whiner/loser/bad fan/sojf.  

Both guys are now Jets.  I am rooting for them.  I hope both of these guys work out.  

I'm on record as saying I was happy with what the Jets did on Days 1 and 2.  A trade down from #3 would have been ideal but I'm glad the Jets didn't give away the pick just for the sake of trading down.  I have no issues with Williams, Polite and Edoga.  But Day 3 was a disappointment to me.  I know we were limited in pick quantity but I really would have rather stayed where we were in Round 4 and taken CB Julian Love and then come back with WR Kelvin Harmon with our remaining pick.  Both guys are higher quality prospects with a better chance of sticking in the NFL.  I don't dislike Wesco and I think he could become a fan favorite, but Cashman and Austin seem like complete boom or bust picks.  I think Love and Harmon would have been boom or average picks.

This was a situation where I wanted quality over quantity, particularly since we went with a CB and offensive pass catcher (TE vs. WR) anyway.  We could have had better prospects at the cost of not getting an ILB in Cashman.

People like to play the odds and I get it.  Having more picks gives a team a higher probability of finding good players.  But I'd argue that one of the worst Jets drafts, if not the worst was the 12 picks we had in 2014, and one of the best was the 4 picks we had in 2007.

And I'm with you 100%....I'm rooting for every single one of these guys to be wildly successful.

[Peace Frog]

47 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

If Osemele works out at OG this may reinforce Macc's belief that he can continue to take this approach, which I'm not sure is a particularly good thing.  But if it keeps working it's hard to complain.  Finding a starting DE and a starting OG in back-to-back years by trading 6th/7th round picks is hard to criticize.  That said, like most people here I really want to see Macc use a Day 2 pick (2nd/3rd Round) on a C or OG prospect, or potentially a 1st on an OT next year (which seems to be a good Draft for Tackles).

Here’s my take. I wanted Paradis more than anyone and I wanted to trade back to get Bradbury but maybe Mac and Gase know better. 

Is it beyond the realm of possibility that Harrison might actually be a good center? The thread the other day seemed to indicate that.

Maybe Mac affirmatively decided NOT to trade back BECAUSE we actually have a competent center. 

That would drive the “Fire Mac” crowd crazy but it could be part of the plan. 

Of course if it doesn’t work out, Mac will pay.

[Jetsfan80]

Meanwhile the whining is worse now than it was in 17.  Point stands.

 

24-40.

 

The “whining” has its basis in reality. We suck.

[RobR]

23 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Hahahahahahaha

 

This whole post is pure gold.

[RobR]

15 hours ago, Pac said:

Meanwhile the whining is worse now than it was in 17.  Point stands.

Is it that hard to admit that you were totally wrong about everything? It can be soothing, or so I've heard.

[Pac]

27 minutes ago, RobR said:

Is it that hard to admit that you were totally wrong about everything? It can be soothing, or so I've heard.

Did you even read the post or 80 quoted or because he said "haha" you assumed it was a gotcha?

I'll let you know when I'm wrong, bub..  that quote ain't it.

[Jetsfan80]

Did you even read the post or 80 quoted or because he said "haha" you assumed it was a gotcha?

I'll let you know when I'm wrong, bub..  that quote ain't it.

 

You were wrong for having blind faith in Mike Maccagnan draft picks.

[Jetsfan80]

Agreed. He had a ton of upside plus the height to deal with today's 6'4" WR's. Not a good sign, for him, that he's getting cut now.

 

The 49ers, who needed corners too, clearly didn’t see this elusive “upside” Macc wanted to believe in. It’s fun to dream but there’s almost always a good reason why a team would be looking to dump a player like that. We learned it the hard way.

[NYs Stepchild]

On 5/11/2019 at 12:02 PM, Integrity28 said:

At this point it’s almost hilarious how many Mac additions are useless within 2 years.

Every team cuts down to 90 then 53 players. 

Every GM has the exact same amount of useful players. 

[Jetsfan80]

On 5/11/2019 at 12:02 PM, Integrity28 said:

At this point it’s almost hilarious how many Mac additions are useless within 2 years.

Clearly the fault belongs to the whiners on this one. 

[Jetsfan80]

15 minutes ago, NYs Stepchild said:

Every team cuts down to 90 then 53 players. 

Every GM has the exact same amount of useful players. 

Not every GM burns mid-round picks on the useless ones.  If Rashard Robinson were a waiver pickup, no one would care.  But we spent a 5th rounder on him, and that actually matters.  Hence why this thread is 10 pages and counting. 

Everyone understands there are busts and guys who flame out quickly in this league.  Its the poor allocation of resources that fully demonstrate Macc is a terrible GM. 

[NYs Stepchild]

Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

Not every GM burns mid-round picks on the useless ones.  If Rashard Robinson were a waiver pickup, no one would care.  But we spent a 5th rounder on him, and that actually matters.  Hence why this thread is 10 pages and counting. 

Yes they do. 

Every GM burns 5th round picks on useless players.

If you find me one that hasn't I'll agree with every hateful thing you blurt out. 

I'll even hate little Division I-AA  WRs  who can't make it in the CFL.

[Jetsfan80]

3 minutes ago, NYs Stepchild said:

 

Every GM burns 5th round picks on useless players.

In trades?  We're talking about trades here.  If that's what you're seriously saying here, challenge accepted. 

[NYs Stepchild]

11 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

In trades?  We're talking about trades here.  If that's what you're seriously saying here, challenge accepted. 

In your mind, what is the difference between drafting a useless player or trading for one? 

[Integrity28]

38 minutes ago, NYs Stepchild said:

Every team cuts down to 90 then 53 players. 

Every GM has the exact same amount of useful players. 

Don't be obtuse.

[#27TheDominator]

21 hours ago, Peace Frog said:

Here’s my take. I wanted Paradis more than anyone and I wanted to trade back to get Bradbury but maybe Mac and Gase know better. 

Is it beyond the realm of possibility that Harrison might actually be a good center? The thread the other day seemed to indicate that.

Maybe Mac affirmatively decided NOT to trade back BECAUSE we actually have a competent center. 

That would drive the “Fire Mac” crowd crazy but it could be part of the plan. 

Of course if it doesn’t work out, Mac will pay.

This isn't a bad theory, but there has been plenty of press about this "rift" between Gase and Maccagnan coming from failure to address the C position. First of all, even if you consider Harrison serviceable, who is the backup?  I think Toth is the only other guy that can snap. 

Harrison was on the team in 2017.  They felt so strongly about his competence that he sat behind Wesley Johnson all ******* year.  He started one game.  Against the Chargers.  The team scored 7 points.  Then, convinced he was a viable starter, they brought in Long, and Swanson, and re-signed Dozier?  Then sat Harrison behind Spencer Long who was two hopping snaps back to Darnold.  I'm not buying it.  This stinks of the Adrien Clarke fiasco. 

It is not beyond the realm of possibility, but it is pretty far-fetched. 

[NYs Stepchild]

12 minutes ago, Integrity28 said:

Don't be obtuse.

[#27TheDominator]

12 minutes ago, NYs Stepchild said:

In your mind, what is the difference between drafting a useless player or trading for one? 

Well, one difference is that they traded for this guy, with starting experience mid-season and he played hardly any defense.  It seems odd.  The risk-reward I can understand, but the use of the player indicates either a coach/GM disconnect or a lack of understanding of the player.

[RobR]

On 10/31/2017 at 4:59 PM, Pac said:

It is!  You try and make valid points but they just can't help themselves.  It's like they've been programmed to respond to any move Macc makes with vitriol and condescension.

Ealy is a player..  getting Kearse and a 2nd rounder for Richardson was a coup..  Kerley playing well..  Lee coming around..  Adams and Maye playing well and will only get better... McGuire has some juice..  Stewart with a couple nice plays and ready to get more time..  We haven't even seen Leggett or Hansen yet but all they do is whine whine whine. 

If Clark or Jones turn into a player this could be a great draft!  but watch..  they'll whine about Donahue.

 

10 hours ago, Pac said:

Did you even read the post or 80 quoted or because he said "haha" you assumed it was a gotcha?

I'll let you know when I'm wrong, bub..  that quote ain't it.

I was referencing this gem of a post.

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, NYs Stepchild said:

Every GM burns 5th round picks on useless players.

 

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

In trades?  We're talking about trades here.  If that's what you're seriously saying here, challenge accepted. 

Here are all the 5th-for-player trades from 2010-18 (excluding the Robinson trade), broken down by good vs. useless trades:

 

"Good" trades

2018

• Chiefs traded 5th round pick for G/T Cameron Erving:  17 starts over 2 seasons for KC at RG, RT and LG
• Rams traded 5th round pick for CB Aqib Talib:  8 starts in 2018, 1 INT, 5 PD's (was hurt for first 8 games, will start for Rams in 2019)

2017

• Raiders trade 5th rounder for RB Marshawn Lynch (received 6th back):  4.3 YPC and 10 TD over 2 seasons
• Jaguars traded 5th rounder for NT Marcell Dareus:  15 starts in 2018, 1 sack, 1 FF, 2 TFL's

2015

• Jets traded 5th rounder to Bears for WR Brandon Marshall (received a 7th back):  158 catches and 17 TD over 2 seasons

2014

• Ravens traded a 2015 5th rounder for C Jeremy Zuttah:  Has started 41 games for Baltimore since 2014

2010

• Lions traded a 5th rounder and DE Robert Henderson for G Rob Sims (received a 7th back):  Started 80 games for Lions at LG before retiring
• Seahawks traded a 5th rounder for RB/KR Leon Washington (received a 7th back):  Played 3 seasons with Seattle, ran back 4 KR TD's and received 126 touches as a runner/receiver
• 49ers traded a 5th rounder for KR/PR Ted Ginn:  Played 3 seasons with SF, running back 2 PR TD's and 1 KR TD

 

Useless trades

2016

• Broncos traded 5th rounder for TE/FB A.J. Derby:  9 games, 1 start, 2 TD's before being let go
• Patriots traded 2017 5th rounder for LB Barkevious Mingo:  Appeared in 16 games, 1 TFL before being let go
• Jets traded 5th rounder for OT Ryan Clady (received 7th rounder back):  8 starts, then got hurt and never played again
• Seahawks traded 5th rounder for S Kelcie McCray:  7 starts in 2 seasons, 3 PD's

2015

• Cowboys traded 2017 5th rounder for QB Matt Cassel:  7 starts, 1-6 record, 70.6 QB Rating before being let go
• Steelers traded 2016 5th rounder for CB Brandon Boykin:  1 start, 1 INT before never playing in league again
• Patriots traded a 2016 5th rounder for WR Keshawn Martin (received a 6th back):  Started 8 games in 2015, caught 2 TD and was used as a KR/PR before being let go
• Vikings traded a 5th rounder for WR Mike Wallace (received a 7th back):  39 catches and 2 TD's before being let go
• Chiefs traded a 5th rounder for G Ben Grubbs:  Started 7 games then never appeared in the league again

2013

• Patriots traded 2014 5th rounder for DT Isaac Sopoaga (received a 6th back):  Started 2 games, had 1 sack before being let go midseason

2012

• Lions traded a 2014 5th rounder for WR Mike Thomas:  1 start, 5 catches and 1 TD before being let go and returning to the team that traded him, the Jaguars

2011

• Patriots traded a 2013 5th rounder for DT Albert Haynesworth:  Played 6 games and recorded 3 tackles before being let go
• Patriots traded a 2012 5th rounder for WR Chad "Ochocinco" Johnson (received a 2013 6th back):  Caught 15 passes then never played again

2010

• Giants traded a 2011 5th rounder for QB Sage Rosenfels and WR Darius Reynaud:  Rosenfels didn't throw a pass the rest of his career; Reynaud caught 23 passes and 0 TD's in 2010 before being let go

 

Yes, there were a lot more bad trades than good ones in here.  But here's a summary of all the teams in the NFL who traded 5th rounders for players since 2010:

 

• Patriots:  4 trades (4 useless)
• Jets:  3 trades (1 good, 2 useless)
• Chiefs:  2 trades (1 good, 1 useless)
• Lions:  2 trades (1 good, 1 useless)
• Seahawks:  2 trades (1 good, 1 useless)
• Rams:  1 trade (1 good)
• Raiders:  1 trade (1 good)
• Jaguars:  1 trade (1 good)
• Ravens:  1 trade (1 good)
• 49ers:  1 trade (1 good)
• Broncos:  1 trade (1 useless)
• Cowboys:  1 trade (1 useless)
• Steelers:  1 trade (1 useless)
• Vikings:  1 trade (1 useless)
• Giants:  1 trade (1 useless)
• Dolphins:   0 trades
• Bills:  0 trades
• Browns:  0 trades
• Bengals:  0 trades
• Colts:  0 trades
• Texans:  0 trades
• Titans:  0 trades
• Chargers:  0 trades
• Eagles:  0 trades
• Redskins:  0 trades
• Packers:  0 trades
• Bears:  0 trades
• Bucs:  0 trades
• Saints:  0 trades
• Panthers:  0 trades
• Falcons:  0 trades
• Cardinals:  0 trades

 

So there you have it.  Since 2010, more than half the league (17 teams) have avoided making any trade involving them giving away a 5th for a player.  And among the 15 teams that DID make a trade involving a 5th for a player, 5 of those teams were a perfect 1/1 in making a good trade. 

The Patriots were 0/4, but I think we can all agree that they are a complete outlier in every way:  Attempting to copy their style of personnel evaluation/management has been futile across the league. 

So removing the Patriots, the Jets are one of the worst teams in the league since 2010 at giving away 5th rounders for useless players.  And mind you, all 3 of those trades occurred in the Macc era. 

[Jetsfan80]

53 minutes ago, NYs Stepchild said:

In your mind, what is the difference between drafting a useless player or trading for one? 

When you trade for another team's trash, you're generally not going to come out of it looking good.  Just look at my above analysis:  Of the 23 trades involving a 5th rounder for a player since 2010, 14 (61 %) of them ended up yielding a useless player.  And even among the "good" trades, several of those guys (like Brandon Marshall, Marcell Dareus, and Marshawn Lynch) were the types that have a very limited shelf-life. 

The team that is trading away the players knows very well what they have and don't have in that player.  They're getting rid of the player for a REASON.  Thus, its almost never a good idea to trade away draft capital for a "known failure/reclamation project" because those types are highly, highly unlikely to work out.  Less likely than using that 5th rounder on a player whose contract you can control on the cheap for 4 years. 

[Sperm Edwards]

On 5/12/2019 at 3:06 AM, David Harris said:

You had me.  

then I thought of Henry Anderson for a 7th, he’s an outlier but that’s what your trying to find in these low round trades

I just looked at the 5th round picks in 2018- ie the round we traded away for Robinson. It's still very early and I won't pretend to know all the picks contributions/status but nothing jumps out as a big miss

Henry Anderson was available to the 2019 Jets without the 7th rounder. The 7th rounder was only for paying him $2MM for 2018 alone. The 2019+ Anderson was signed as a UFA with other teams bidding for him. Even coaches are new, so it's not even like last year's coaches wanted him back for more.

[ZachEY]

On 10/31/2017 at 7:45 PM, UnitedWhofans said:

I mean this thread is so comical because it clearly shows my point. You guys will never be happy. Ever. You're too used to misery that you dont even attempt to be happy

Wonder at what point you might start considering that you're just, you know, wrong all of the time?

[NYs Stepchild]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

When you trade for another team's trash, you're generally not going to come out of it looking good.  Just look at my above analysis:  Of the 23 trades involving a 5th rounder for a player since 2010, 14 (61 %) of them ended up yielding a useless player.  And even among the "good" trades, several of those guys (like Brandon Marshall, Marcell Dareus, and Marshawn Lynch) were the types that have a very limited shelf-life. 

The team that is trading away the players knows very well what they have and don't have in that player.  They're getting rid of the player for a REASON.  Thus, its almost never a good idea to trade away draft capital for a "known failure/reclamation project" because those types are highly, highly unlikely to work out.  Less likely than using that 5th rounder on a player whose contract you can control on the cheap for 4 years. 

Historic Success Chart

The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

[NYs Stepchild]

2 hours ago, #27TheDominator said:

Well, one difference is that they traded for this guy, with starting experience mid-season and he played hardly any defense.  It seems odd.  The risk-reward I can understand, but the use of the player indicates either a coach/GM disconnect or a lack of understanding of the player.

I'm not going to pretend to understand the mindset but if there was a 20% chance of the player working out it was better than the chances of a 5th round pick. 

People need to simmer down. 

[Jetsfan80]

14 minutes ago, NYs Stepchild said:

Historic Success Chart

The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

 

My point still stands and is not refuted here:  Its better to try to find a gem in the draft in the 5th round, and control his contract for 4 years on the cheap, than trade a 5th for a player another team is giving up on. 

Even if the chances are low you find a starter with your own pick, sometimes that starter can be one you keep around for a long time, well beyond his rookie deal.  Very, very rarely does a 5th-for-a-pick ever get you a useful player for 4+ years. 

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, NYs Stepchild said:

I'm not going to pretend to understand the mindset but if there was a 20% chance of the player working out it was better than the chances of a 5th round pick. 

People need to simmer down. 

In Rashard Robinson's case, it wasn't a 20 % chance.  If it was, the 49ers would have kept him while he was young and they were paying him peanuts.  It was more like a less than a 5 % chance. 

In the above chart, you showed a 16 % chance we'd get a starting-caliber O-Lineman.  That would have been a far better use of resources with that 5th.