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**** THE OFFICIAL RACE TO THE BOTTOM THREAD ****


ZachEY

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Good week for the tank:

Jets do what they need to do... Chargers get a win... Football Team gets a win... Cowboys leading...

Fortunately, with Burrow out... Bengals have that extra .5 win, should things go sideways quickly.

Not a surprise, but this is coming down to exactly what we all expected... Jets vs. Jags.

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2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

A top-2 pick in what looks to be a 3 or 4-QB draft.  Not too shabby!

 

1 minute ago, slimjasi said:

Yep.

It seems incredibly unlikely that we will miss out on a top 2 pick

I mean, we're definitely taking the wrong one, but at least there's hope we don't have Darnold anymore.

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24 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

0-10 - JETS

1-9 - JAGS

2-7-1 - BENGALS

 

WEEK 12 GAMES TO WATCH:

Honestly, just Jets and Jags now.  Giants vs. Bengals if you think there's a chance Jets can win 3 games.

Jets aren’t going 3-3. They’re either picking #1 or #2. If Minshew comes back, their chances are good. If Jags keep playing Luton though ...

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Just now, BroadwayRay said:

Jets aren’t going 3-3. They’re either picking #1 or #2. If Minshew comes back, their chances are good. If Jags keep playing Luton though ...

The next 2 weeks (Cleveland and Minnesota) are decent shots for Jax to win 1 more and give us breathing room. 
 

Then the Bears Week 16 and Week 17 against Indy if The Colts don’t have anything to play for.

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3 minutes ago, BroadwayRay said:

Jets aren’t going 3-3. They’re either picking #1 or #2. If Minshew comes back, their chances are good. If Jags keep playing Luton though ...

Hence, the prior post.  We're in on Fields, at worst, it seems.

Also, when I started this, I removed teams at 3 wins.  So, I kept the Bengals.

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9 minutes ago, HawkeyeJet said:

Texans are a real key to the Jets.  If the Texans could finish strong and get to 6-7 wins, that would help the Jets quite a bit.

Also, outside of beating the Jets, the Dolphins and Patriots scuffling down the stretch would be helpful.

Or the Jags could just win a game:)

And/or Jets not win a game:)

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10 minutes ago, KINGDIRK said:

According to ESPN Jets SOS is currently .570 with Jax at .529.

Also Jets have hardest schedule in the league rest of the season; Jax 4tn hardest. 

In other words, no chance we win SOS tie breaker.

Where do you see this?  Tankathon has it 588 to 555.

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1 hour ago, HawkeyeJet said:

Texans are a real key to the Jets.  If the Texans could finish strong and get to 6-7 wins, that would help the Jets quite a bit.

Also, outside of beating the Jets, the Dolphins and Patriots scuffling down the stretch would be helpful.

Or the Jags could just win a game:)

Added bonus to Texans finishing strong.  MIA has their 1st round pick.  HOU has already pushed themselves back to being tied for 9th.  Three weeks ago they were tied for pick 2.  That's a huge difference in terms of that pick's value.

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So I just created a spreadsheet based on how tankathon does SOS(which is the correct way).

Then I estimated each teams opponents w/l record by season end then plugged those numbers in.  Based on that, I'd say the odds of Jets winning the SOS battle is slim.

My  records are obviously just my opinion and are not so detailed there might not be some flaws in the possibilities that teams records can't be exactly what I have them predicted as based off teams playing each other, but I'd say it's probably a pretty good ball park.

Based on my predictions, the Jets opponents will end up with about 10 more wins than the Jags.  That might not seem like a lot, but when you realize how many games won't necessarily have an impact on it either way, it turns out to be a lot.

The main things that could help the Jets is our AFC east mate to finish horribly and the NFC West doing the same.  Problem is there are tons of ACF East Vs AFC East games left and NFW West vs NFC West games left.  

In Reverse, it would be Helpful for NFC South teams to do poorly and NFC North teams to do poorly.  But lots of intra division games negate a lot of that.

If we are to pick #1, we most likely can't have same record as Jags.

I previously had thought it was more likely than it appears it might be.

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Yeah, I think SoS is one of the stupidest tie-breakers since it's completely out of the control of the teams in play.  Record against common opponents would make a bit more sense.  Or even points F/A differential.  Something that reflects on the performance of the teams themselves.  But NFL's gonna NFL.

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