Jets Case Scenario, Part II: Wide Receiver; All Aboard! Pass-Catching Firepower

[JetNation]

Now that we have discussed the most important position and looked at who will be the NY Jets quarterback, let’s look at some potential weapons to give the Jets’ signal caller. For 5 years, the Jets have been without a 1,000 yard receiver, last accomplished by Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker in 2015. Before them, it was Jericho Cotchery in 2007. Robby Anderson was the closest this offense has had to a number 1 receiver, but he now works in Carolina for the Panthers. Denzel Mims, while he had a rookie season filled with promise, is not enough to solidify this group alone. Jamison Crowder is an above average slot receiver, but will enter 2021 with a lofty price tag of roughly $11.3M. He was able to stand out in Gase’s offense, one that is tailored to the receiver position, but still only managed 699 yards and 6 TDs in twelve games last season. If Joe Douglas is serious about fielding a competitive team, particularly on offense, he should turn over every rock possible when it comes to wideouts. Using Spotrac’s “Manage Roster” feature, I will provide a few hypothetical scenarios to help improve this unit.

First, let’s look at expiring contracts at the position for the Jets:

• Breshad Perriman
• Jeff Smith
• Vyncint Smith
• Lawrence Cager (Future/Reserve)
• Jaleel Scott (Future/Reserve)
• Josh Malone (Future/Reserve)

Next, we can look to cut some players to create additional cap space before entering the free agency market. Some choices are easier than others, and some players may end up staying on roster for 2021. For this example, I found five players I believe the team should move on from, both on offense and defense. The rumored cap total is said to be around $180-$181 million, a bit higher than teams thought coming out of a pandemic season, but until we have confirmation on the exact number, we will use the current projected $176 million dollar total.

• WR Jamison Crowder (Savings: $10.5M)
• DE Henry Anderson (Savings: $8.2M)
• TE Ryan Griffin (Savings: $1.875M)
• LB Blake Cashman (Savings: $774k)
• WR Josh Doctson (Savings: $890k)

This has created a total savings of around $22M, putting the Jets over $95M in total cap space, which can be used to sign multiple players. Here are a few combinations of signings that New York could make that would immediately add quality value to the wide receiver room.

Scenario A

• Allen Robinson – 3yr/$60M ($20M/yr), $45M fully gtd.
• Corey Davis – 2yr/$19.5M ($9.75 M/yr), $14M fully gtd.

This proposed contract would make Robinson the 4th-highest paid receiver in terms of average annual value (AAV), and the 2nd-highest amount due at signing. While this is a very rich deal for any GM to give out, Allen Robinson has proved he can still produce WR1 numbers, despite the average play from his quarterbacks. Dating back to his college years at Penn State, Robinson’s track record with quarterbacks is murky to say the least, catching passes from Mitch Trubisky, Christian Hackenberg and Blake Bortles. Even if New York keeps Sam Darnold, it’s likely that Robinson would be working with the best quarterback thus far in his career. The ceiling can only go up for ARob in this free agency period. The terms of this deal would also allow him to become a UFA in the 2024 offseason at the age of 30, so he can get another contract before his career is over. Both sides could potentially come out a winner here.

Total Spending (2021): $29.75M

Total Cap Space Remaining: ~$65.25M

Scenario B

• JuJu Smith-Schuster – 4yr/$65.5M ($16.375M/yr), $41M fully gtd.
• Curtis Samuel – 2yr/$26M ($13M/yr), $16M gtd.

If the Jets wanted to pursue a younger option in free agency, JuJu Smith-Schuster fits that mold. This contract would make the 25-year old receiver out of Southern California the 10th-highest WR in terms of AAV and guaranteed money. Of course, this scenario would be most ideal if New York was determined to gut it out with Darnold, given their past together in college. It was rumored shortly after the Super Bowl that Smith-Schuster, as well as Texans’ speedy star Will Fuller V, were atop the Jets list of names at the position, according to ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler.

Total Spending (2021): $29.375M

Total Cap Space Remaining: ~$65.625M

Draftable Targets

With 4 selections in the top-70 picks in the upcoming 2021 NFL Draft, there is no better place to find a young, cheap option that can yield immediate results. Regardless if the Jets choose to deploy a veteran quarterback like Darnold or Watson, or a rookie of their choosing, surrounding him with as many pass game threats as possible should be the main priority. Prospects that immediately jump off the page, due to their scheme fit in the Shanahan offense, or simply their athletic abilities, are Clemson’s Amari Rodgers, South Carolina’s Shi Smith, and UCLA’s Demetric Felton. While none of them may be pegged to go in the first round, they all have unique skill sets that will make them highly sought after. The ability to separate from defenders at the top of the route, as well as the toughness to create yards after catch is crucial in this league, and this class is almost as special as last year’s in terms of overall talent. I wouldn’t be surprised if New York repeats its strategy from the 2020 draft, taking a young playmaker on Day 2, potentially with the 66th pick.

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[MysticalJet2]

Great analysis and thanks for posting!  

I am not a cap guru, but these cap numbers are assuming they stick with Darnold.  The available cap space could be significantly impacted if they trade for Watson - assuming he'd get a mega deal.. no?  So then the available cap changes and the strategy would probably change in free agency and potentially the draft.  We still need OL, WR, DB, RB, LB, and edge Rusher. *Edit - and maybe a TE to make the new offense work well (I'm not sold on our current TE's)

Overall I agree we need to upgrade the WR position significantly.

[Doggin94it]

Cutting Crowder would be a remarkably dumb move, from both a financial and roster-building standpoint. He's an elite slot guy on a relatively team friendly deal (26th highest paid WR in the NFL) with a year left. Why open another hole on the offense you'd need to fill with a high priced free agent?

Yes, he had a down year - but he was injured for 6 games (missed 4, barely played in 2). That's just not a move we need to make

[32EBoozer]

19 minutes ago, Doggin94it said:

Cutting Crowder would be a remarkably dumb move, from both a financial and roster-building standpoint. He's an elite slot guy on a relatively team friendly deal (26th highest paid WR in the NFL) with a year left. Why open another hole on the offense you'd need to fill with a high priced free agent?

Yes, he had a down year - but he was injured for 6 games (missed 4, barely played in 2). That's just not a move we need to make

Agree. Also, if he’s a FA in 22 then he will do everything in his power to stay healthy and put up big numbers. You would think He will come to camp in the best shape of his life 

[Bowles Movement]

22 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

Agree. Also, if he’s a FA in 22 then he will do everything in his power to stay healthy and put up big numbers. You would think He will come to camp in the best shape of his life 

And if he has a great year and then leaves, WE might get a comp pick.

[FidelioJet]

47 minutes ago, Doggin94it said:

Cutting Crowder would be a remarkably dumb move, from both a financial and roster-building standpoint. He's an elite slot guy on a relatively team friendly deal (26th highest paid WR in the NFL) with a year left. Why open another hole on the offense you'd need to fill with a high priced free agent?

Yes, he had a down year - but he was injured for 6 games (missed 4, barely played in 2). That's just not a move we need to make

He's a good player but incredibly far from "elite"

He happens to be the only NFL caliber skill position player on the team so we should absolutely not get rid of him, but let's just be real about what he is.  

A solid slot receiver.  nothing more, nothing less. 

[rangerous]

i tend to agree with the listed cuts.  anderson is pretty much just average.  the other guys may have shown some flashes but cashman can't stay on the field.  crowder is the only guy who one can argue should stay but the scenarios show his position being replaced so it's kind of a wash.  as for the rest of the receiver group, maybe vyncint smith should be retained.  the rest of the guys haven't shown enough.  the thing is they can use free agency to get players instead of using the draft.

[32EBoozer]

22 minutes ago, Bowles Movement said:

And if he has a great year and then leaves, WE might get a comp pick.

With the amount of holes we have the best comp pick scenario we can hope for will start in 2023 if JD’s draft picks develop. We will be signing at least 3 starting players in FA. this year if we stick with Sam.  Next year we may do the same if we make the Watson deal. If we get DW Jets will go full win now in FA while building depth in draft. If we select Wilson we will build through the draft with some solid but unspectacular OL players and WR in FA to be a bridge. 
IMHO

[Doggin94it]

1 hour ago, FidelioJet said:

He's a good player but incredibly far from "elite"

He happens to be the only NFL caliber skill position player on the team so we should absolutely not get rid of him, but let's just be real about what he is.  

A solid slot receiver.  nothing more, nothing less. 

Tell me 10 slot WRs you'd prefer over him.

Not "Big Slot" guys like Thomas or Godwin, who are outside receivers their teams shift to the slot when they go to 3-wide or more. True slot guys, Welker types.

[undertow]

We aren't cutting Crowder...next.

[Sperm Edwards]

3 hours ago, Doggin94it said:

Cutting Crowder would be a remarkably dumb move, from both a financial and roster-building standpoint. He's an elite slot guy on a relatively team friendly deal (26th highest paid WR in the NFL) with a year left. Why open another hole on the offense you'd need to fill with a high priced free agent?

Yes, he had a down year - but he was injured for 6 games (missed 4, barely played in 2). That's just not a move we need to make

Yeah I’m also confused why he’d be on the cutting block when the team has no cap room issues with him, and already needs at least one more WR (and 50-50 on a TE) even with Crowder returning.

Crowder is - or should be - the safest non-rookie, non-guaranteed-contract player on the team.

Crowder is one of the league’s best slot receivers. The only Crowder contract discussion there should be whether or not to extend him this spring.

Makes less than zero sense to me, too.

[LAD_Brooklyn]

3 hours ago, Doggin94it said:

Cutting Crowder would be a remarkably dumb move, from both a financial and roster-building standpoint. He's an elite slot guy on a relatively team friendly deal (26th highest paid WR in the NFL) with a year left. Why open another hole on the offense you'd need to fill with a high priced free agent?

Yes, he had a down year - but he was injured for 6 games (missed 4, barely played in 2). That's just not a move we need to make

Cutting Crowder is a smart move. He can either extend his deal or get cut so we can lock in on long term solutions.

[#27TheDominator]

You aren't saving any money cutting Cashman.  None.  Cashman and Doctson are getting nothing.  Whoever you replace them with (even some sh*t UDFA) isn't gonig to save you more than $100k.  There is no reason to cut either unless it is for poor performance. 

If you are going all in at WR, I don't see why you'd cut Crowder who has been the only reliable target.  I can kind of see it if you are going Smith-Schuster, how many slot guys do you want, but if those two can't work together it is just another reason to prioritize an outside guy like Golladay or Godwin or even cheaper guys like Marvin Jones.  I would have Crowder back and literally every guy on an expiring contract except Perriman.  I'd even take Perriman back, but only at a pay cut.

Even if they don't roll with Darnold they may still have a ton of cap.  If they pick a QB and trade Darnold they might actually save cap space.  I'm not sure, how his contract is structured, but I think he is the 2nd highest paid guy on the team.  I would think they could save money dumping some of the weaker OL.  Fant, Lewis and Van Roten have somewhat significant deals and can save some cash if these guys don't think they fit.

[Lurker89]

2 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

He's a good player but incredibly far from "elite"

He happens to be the only NFL caliber skill position player on the team so we should absolutely not get rid of him, but let's just be real about what he is.  

A solid slot receiver.  nothing more, nothing less. 

I'll give you "not elite" if you give me "very good". Solid is a dig .... my stools are solid, Crowder is very good. 

Some people stretch how good sure but I want him on this team on this contract.

[LAD_Brooklyn]

5 hours ago, JetNation said:

 

• Corey Davis – 2yr/$19.5M ($9.75 M/yr), $14M fully gtd.

 

• Curtis Samuel – 2yr/$26M ($13M/yr), $16M gtd.

I don't see Samuel getting paid more then Davis especially that much more.

[Lurker89]

4 minutes ago, LAD_Brooklyn said:

Cutting Crowder is a smart move. He can either extend his deal or get cut so we can lock in on long term solutions.

Or you could not be a **** and could let him play out his moderately priced contract. We could consider that he is one of the few good professional players we've had on this trainwreck of a team for the last few years. He played hard and didn't b**** and moan about the dumpster fire he was living in. 

On the other hand, we can go with your plan ... we could treat this good, above average player like dogs*** even though he's only helped the team while being on a team friendly contract and hope no pending free agents are looking.

[Sperm Edwards]

8 minutes ago, LAD_Brooklyn said:

Cutting Crowder is a smart move. He can either extend his deal or get cut so we can lock in on long term solutions.

What is smart about cutting the team’s only productive, very reasonably priced, non-“distraction” personality, veteran receiver, who turns just 28 in June?

The last thing this comes across as, to me, is addition by subtraction. This is subtraction by subtraction.

[Sperm Edwards]

5 minutes ago, Lurker89 said:

Or you could not be a **** and could let him play out his moderately priced contract. We could consider that he is one of the few good professional players we've had on this trainwreck of a team for the last few years. He played hard and didn't b**** and moan about the dumpster fire he was living in. 

On the other hand, we can go with your plan ... we could treat this good, above average player like dogs*** even though he's only helped the team while being on a team friendly contract and hope no pending free agents are looking.

Never mind someone will give him a similar value or greater contract if we choose not to renew him after the season, and we would be in line for a 4th-5th round comp pick. Not a reason on its own, but it is also a bonus:

In effect we would be giving up that future draft pick for the privilege of clearing $10 million in cap room the team doesn't at all need, to then create yet another hole on a team with far too many as it is.

Strange take.

[joewilly12]

3 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

What is smart about cutting the team’s only productive, very reasonably priced, non-“distraction” personality, veteran receiver, who turns just 28 in June?

The last thing this comes across as, to me, is addition by subtraction. This is subtraction by subtraction.

Nothing. 

Crowder is damn good player on the field  and good person off the field. 

He comes to play and gets the job done. 

No way JD doesn't see all this. 

We have way more other issues Jameson Crowder isn't one of them. 

[LAD_Brooklyn]

2 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

What is smart about cutting the team’s only productive, very reasonably priced, non-“distraction” personality, veteran receiver, who turns just 28 in June?

The last thing this comes across as, to me, is addition by subtraction. This is subtraction by subtraction.

It would be smart to either extend him or cut him and sign someone else for the long run. If some here actually are this high on the guy why would you guys be against extending him? Next season everyone and their mother has cap space. So while we are in this situation where most are deprived of cap space we should use that to our advantage. Crowder is going to the highest bidder when his contract is up. I mean he signed with the Jets two seasons ago of all teams. 

[#27TheDominator]

8 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Never mind someone will give him a similar value or greater contract if we choose not to renew him after the season, and we would be in line for a 4th-5th round comp pick. Not a reason on its own, but it is also a bonus:

In effect we would be giving up that future draft pick for the privilege of clearing $10 million in cap room the team doesn't at all need, to then create yet another hole on a team with far too many as it is.

Strange take.

Yes.  Many have the idea that having a guy on an expiring contract is a bad thing.  Remember those guys are playing for contracts.  Wilkerson, Leonard WIlliams,  Santonio.   Take advantage of guys playing for a deal.  If they can extend people at a bargain, I am all for it, but sometimes guys have fair contracts and we should let them play them out.  Maybe deal guys on their last year - the way we got Edwards and Holmes  Otherwise, let him go and take the comp pick.  If they need space to fit a piece in, like Watson, sure.  If not, why? 

[SayNoToDMC]

Keep Crowder. The a$$hole was one of the few people that didn't get the tank memo and tried all season. Rest of the lot outside Mims you can toss in the dumpster fire

[FidelioJet]

2 hours ago, Doggin94it said:

Tell me 10 slot WRs you'd prefer over him.

Not "Big Slot" guys like Thomas or Godwin, who are outside receivers their teams shift to the slot when they go to 3-wide or more. True slot guys, Welker types.

He's not "elite" - he's very good.

[FidelioJet]

1 hour ago, Lurker89 said:

I'll give you "not elite" if you give me "very good". Solid is a dig .... my stools are solid, Crowder is very good. 

Some people stretch how good sure but I want him on this team on this contract.

Fair enough.  A very good slot receiver.  I can agree to that.

[undertow]

49 minutes ago, LAD_Brooklyn said:

It would be smart to either extend him or cut him and sign someone else for the long run. If some here actually are this high on the guy why would you guys be against extending him? Next season everyone and their mother has cap space. So while we are in this situation where most are deprived of cap space we should use that to our advantage. Crowder is going to the highest bidder when his contract is up. I mean he signed with the Jets two seasons ago of all teams. 

classic overthinking....the smart thing to do with Crowder is nothing which is what they will do.  They will most likely sign a WR and draft one and will reevaluate at the end of the season.

[Lurker89]

48 minutes ago, LAD_Brooklyn said:

It would be smart to either extend him or cut him and sign someone else for the long run. If some here actually are this high on the guy why would you guys be against extending him? Next season everyone and their mother has cap space. So while we are in this situation where most are deprived of cap space we should use that to our advantage. Crowder is going to the highest bidder when his contract is up. I mean he signed with the Jets two seasons ago of all teams. 

Offer an extension sure. If he takes it great, if he doesn't then let him play out his contract year, he's earned it and a chance to try to capitalize off of it. No need to cut him it's a bad look and not as beneficial as you think it will be. As stated if he walks as an FA we'll likely get a comp pick.

[undertow]

1 hour ago, LAD_Brooklyn said:

Cutting Crowder is a smart move. He can either extend his deal or get cut so we can lock in on long term solutions.

The long term solution will be Mims, whoever they draft, and whoever they sign.  There's zero reason to cut Crowder.  Every roster move isn't going to be a long term solution.  As if Corey Davis is the key to a championship run in 2024 or something.

[derp]

I'd imagine Crowder would have trade value. Not a lot, but probably enough to bring back a mid-late round pick, which is better than cutting him.

I'm not the most well versed in the Shanahan offense, but I don't think Crowder is an awesome fit. I wouldn't cut or trade him right now, but there's a pretty viable case to be made that the Shanahan offense isn't as slot only friendly as some others.

Found some stats on personnel groupings last year. The Jets played a ton in 11 personnel (one back, one tight end, three receivers) last year - 72% of snaps. Overall they had three receivers on 74% of snaps, four receivers on 4% of snaps, two on 17% of snaps, and one on 3% of snaps - plus some rounding error in there, but you get the idea. Lots of three or four wide sets.

The 49ers also played the most in 11 personnel, but for 44% of snaps. Their second most common grouping was 21 personnel (two backs, one tight end, two receivers) for 33% of snaps. Overall they had three receivers only in that 11 grouping so for 44% of snaps, four receivers on 0% of snaps (literally two plays all year, and one with five receivers), two on 45% of snaps, one on 9% of snaps, and zero on 1% of snaps.

Another offense that people have pointed to is the Packers - also the most in 11 personnel, for 55% of snaps - and they kind of split the difference between the Jets and 49ers but much less WR heavy than I expected for an Aaron Rodgers offense and far more similar to SF. Overall they had three receivers again only in that 11 grouping so for 55% of snaps, four receivers on 0% of snaps (literally four plays all year, and one with five receivers), two on 38% of snaps, and one on 4% of snaps, plus some rounding error.

So I think moral of the story is if you're only playing with at least three WR's 44-55% of the time instead of 78% of the time, there's a lot less opportunity to use a slot receiver. With as volume based as Crowder is and as much as he's really an inside receiver, I'm not sure the fit for what they want to do is quite there. Seems like a square peg round hole situation. I think he is very good in that role but might be a win-win to try to get something for him if they can add some other pass catchers who might be better fits.

The interesting flip between the Packers and the 49ers is that for all the two WR sets both teams used, the 49ers had two backs on the field a lot more - 42% of snaps (makes sense with Juszczyk) - and the Packers used more tight ends. 

[addage]

First, one of the critical goals for the Jets is to build trust in the locker room.  And to do that, you have to build continuity.  The "All gas, no brakes" mantra can only have meaning if the players see the same investment on the part of the Jets as they are being asked to make on behalf of the team.  So the upshot is:  keep Crowder unless there is a significant--and I mean obvious to everyone--chance to improve the roster.

Next. all of this sign this player, cut that player talk is being made in a vacuum.  The only time to cut a player is when you know you have a better player in the wings.  So you have to look at these moves in terms of what the Jets expect to do in the draft and what the Jets are hearing on the FA and trade talks.

It's fun to speculate but JD is not really listening.  He is focused on evaluating the roster (and that means in terms of the expected changes to offense and defense schemes) , building a draft board and seeing what's available from other teams--and at what cost.

[Paradis]

unrelated but related -- i had fun with this,

 

 

[Sperm Edwards]

5 hours ago, LAD_Brooklyn said:

It would be smart to either extend him or cut him and sign someone else for the long run. If some here actually are this high on the guy why would you guys be against extending him? Next season everyone and their mother has cap space. So while we are in this situation where most are deprived of cap space we should use that to our advantage. Crowder is going to the highest bidder when his contract is up. I mean he signed with the Jets two seasons ago of all teams. 

Still not getting the rationale.

Say you want to extend him, and he's not agreeable to the terms you want. Why cut him now then? 

What's wrong with keeping him for the year, and if he leaves via FA in 2022 then he leaves?