Draft Capital vs efficiency

[CanadaSteve]

I actually posted about this about two years ago, and went back five years.  And I went to post it again, and I just realized I deleted it off my computer.  SO....there you have it.

[kevinc855]

16 minutes ago, playtowinthegame said:

His first big whiff in the draft was drafting Mekhi Becton over Tristan Wirfs, and imho his first big off-season miss before the 2020 draft was not targeting Brandon Scherff during the 2020 off-season. Scherff and Wirfs would have been great foundational pieces for an OL rebuild. 

Yes, for 3 years I have been trying to get his approach to money and still don't. He doesnt pay. He has established that. He then targets what he feels are value signings. My only guess is he somehow things our coaching or something will help improve the player performance or alot of guys on value and picks are better then a few stars. I'm not quite sure, but I don't know quite why he thought this O line workout. Anyone with a brain new Becton would not stay on the field 16 games, nor ever will. Now I dont think anyone thought he get hurt this quick, but still rolling with the rest of the cast is just odd. AND remember this is the line protecting a QB he staked alot of his GM cred on. Bewildering. 

[southparkcpa]

29 minutes ago, CanadaSteve said:

I actually posted about this about two years ago, and went back five years.  And I went to post it again, and I just realized I deleted it off my computer.  SO....there you have it.

Id love some stats about the number of number 1 and 2 picks teams have on their squads 5 years out.  

[clayton163v]

A great read and a good topic.

Many want to throw Joe Douglas under the bus for poor draft performance.  But I know I speak for many Jet fans who are delighted with his performance thus far.  This is why.

I have read many posters declare that the only measure of success is player performance.  Is the player good or not?  I have been watching Jet Gms for more than 40 years.  Believe me when I tell you.  I think this is WRONG because it is pure hindsight.  Hindsight has a place in evaluating management.  But so does process and we have lacked an objective process. 

What I want is an objective assessment of the available talent.  Then I want the GM to take players according to value.  Sometimes you have to fill a need but you cannot get away from your value board.  Then you move around for need and establish relationships with other GMs.  Trades must be fairly priced.   It drives me nuts to see unforced errors. 

So far Joe has not only out-drafted me (last season he had me cleanly beat).  But even where I would have made a different decision, I had to concede that he did not get ripped off or over-drafted people.  Note, out-drafting a fan should happen every year.  We have been so BAD that it has been is a rare event.  Joe is giving me hope that he gets this basic reality.  You cannot get away from the value board. 

It is not what the team wants.  It is not what the team needs.  It is what is available on the value board. 

When he moved up for AVT he violated a cardinal rule of drafting.  Bad teams must not move up early in drafts unless it is for a chess piece (QB, LT or Edge) imo.  You are what your record says you are and a Guard is not a Chess piece.  It was his first unforced error imo.  But I cannot complain about the cost.  The Bears paid through the nose.   Our price was fair.

Last year the only player that we over-drafted was Clark (6th round grade).  The other guys went where they were rated except Mims (1st), Hall (2d), and Mann (5th) who were objectively bargains as measured against the value board.  His two trades back brought solid value. 

This year everybody went where they were rated except MC2 and Pinnock who lacked draftable grades.  Moore (1st) and Nasirildeen (3d) were objective bargains.  I attribute the failure to find MC2 and Pinnock to COVID's effect on scouting.   Yes, I am making excuses.  But COVID qualifies.  I have been reading Ourlads for decades and this is the first time they missed our 5th and 6th round picks.  Occasionally they miss a 7th but more often they write up an UDFA like they did with Kyle Phillips. 

I understand that in the end performance has to be evaluated.  Joe D will sink or swim on player performance.  But process matters and I can fairly judge price based on pre-draft values and trade costs from previous drafts from my CHAIR.  I cannot give Joe D any grade but a B.  And if he hits on Zack it is an A+.  There is nothing wrong with his draft process and it has been a very LONG TIME since I could say that about our GMs.

He has made some poor free agent signings but those are the guys whose teams let them walk.  Some of them are great players looking to get paid.  Most of the time you are HOPING they can hold the fort.   Well, the fort burned down.  I will continue to judge him on his drafts.  So far, I do not have a basis to make a serious argument that his choices were unreasonable or based on wishful thinking. 

Have some picks failed?  Yes.  But we did not "reach" for those picks  The Jets were not wrong.  The whole scouting community was wrong.  So long as that is why we miss on picks, we're doing great. 

 

[THE BARON]

15 hours ago, #27TheDominator said:

I know I like to split hairs and bust balls, but it is a pretty big distinction.

It was a lazy post on my part.  I understand the significance of the distinction.  Are you on board with the larger point ??? They are JD draft picks that are not on the field and contributing regardless of said distinction. 

[peebag]

22 hours ago, Jet2020 said:

I believe we have a decent core and can build around it. Couple of good signings coupled with couple of good rookies can change the entire outcome of a GMs performance. 

What's the decent core of this team?  I'm not seeing that.

[#27TheDominator]

I appreciate the work and the viewpoint, but "went where they were graded"  is kind of a crock of sh*t.  If we are going by the "ratings" then what is the sense of having a GM and scouting department?  For what it is worth, I see him as picking plenty of guys for need.  Becton, Mims, Hall, Wilson, AVT, the shotgun of CBs were all trending towards need IMO, but that is the nature of the beast with a sh*tty team.  I don't know which service you use that didn't have a draftable grade on Pinnock.  I think it must be ourlads.  I am no expert, but personally I had him above Echols and Carter, but I don't look at this scheme as much.

By this analysis, the '80 draft was a horror.  I remember all the whining about the reach on Lageman, but he and Tony Martin were two of their better picks.  Neither would be "good picks" by your standard.

[Jetsfan80]

On 9/15/2021 at 12:04 PM, jgb said:

I wouldn’t give him two more years. If Zach isn’t obviously the guy by year end, time to do what cardinals did with Rosen and move on. With a new GM to pick the next savior. Jets have not only been bad but they also haven’t learned how to fail fast. Every disastrous era of our history has played out in slow motion.

Well then you're asking the Johnson's to hire a new GM.  So we know that will fail.

Ride it out with Douglas as long as possible.  At the very least, he's boxed the Johnson's out from decision-making and has made very solid trades, so that's enough for now to say he's better than the last 2 GM's we've had.  And even with limited information so far, Wilson appears to be a superior prospect to Darnold so that's a step in the right direction too.

So if his first 2 drafts end up being poor the first step needs to be re-tooling our draft philosophy and/or doing a full-on hatchet job on the scouting department before you look to fire Douglas.  He's well-respected around the league so it would look absolutely horrible for this org if the Jets fire him after just 2.5 years after having kept Maccagnan around for 5.

Douglas gets 4 years at bare minimum, whether people like it or not.  He's in what, year 3 of a 6-year deal?  No shot at all that the Johnson's fire him after this season no matter how bad things look.

[Jetsfan80]

On 9/15/2021 at 2:09 PM, THE BARON said:

The Eagles had success when he was part of the organization.  That is a matter of record.  But that credit may not not have been his portion.   They may have had success because of him or in spite of him or somewhere in between those two.  We don't know.  What we do know is that few if any of his players are panning out.  With two off seasons, we should see a quality offensive line as a minimum.  What we see is a mess.  

He also had success in Baltimore, under arguably the greatest drafting GM of all-time.  2 different SB-winning orgs vouched heavily for the guy and were sad to see him go.  That's a very different pedigree from a guy like Idzik, who was "found" by Korn Ferry, or Mike Maccagnan, who supposedly was about to get fired by Houston before we threw him a lifeline.

This all easily could easily fail but you absolutely have to give Douglas 4 offseasons before you move on from him.  

[THE BARON]

12 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

He also had success in Baltimore, under arguably the greatest drafting GM of all-time.  2 different SB-winning orgs vouched heavily for the guy and were sad to see him go.  That's a very different pedigree from a guy like Idzik, who was "found" by Korn Ferry, or Mike Maccagnan, who supposedly was about to get fired by Houston before we threw him a lifeline.

This all easily could easily fail but you absolutely have to give Douglas 4 offseasons before you move on from him.  

His resume is undeniable.  I'd feel a lot better if his results with drafting for the Jets looked better.  Agree it can take time, but the offensive line should be looking a lot better at this point.  Along with a poor line,, JD didn't even hit on any skill position players yet.  If none of his 2021 draft picks work out this season, what will that mean for 2022 ?

[Jetsfan80]

21 hours ago, southparkcpa said:

Agreed… but IMO Wirfs was a NO Brainer.    Wirfs is heads and tales ahead of Becton.   

But he has yet to play LT in the NFL.  It's not too hard to have success as a RT, on a loaded offense, with Bruce Arians as your OC, and with a HOF QB who gets the ball out quickly.  He may well be a great LT one day but he needs to prove it first.

So, no, it wasn't a no-brainer and still isn't even with hindsight as a guide.

[Jetsfan80]

19 hours ago, Irish Jet said:

Douglas should be under so much pressure. These guys have to show something or we must move on. The desperate excuses made for him are expiring with every week.

The Johnson's have no interest in firing Douglas any time soon.  Get used to him being here thru 2023 no matter how much you kick and scream about it.  So let's just hope these picks show something, things get better under the brand new coaching staff, and that Douglas learns from his mistakes.  Because he's not going anywhere this offseason.  

[Jetsfan80]

6 minutes ago, THE BARON said:

His resume is undeniable.  I'd feel a lot better if his results with drafting for the Jets looked better.  Agree it can take time, but the offensive line should be looking a lot better at this point.  Along with a poor line,, JD didn't even hit on any skill position players yet.  If none of his 2021 draft picks work out this season, what will that mean for 2022 ?

That'll he'll need to radically change his approach and probably fire a bunch of scouts, and maybe even some higher level front office people?  

[#27TheDominator]

3 hours ago, THE BARON said:

It was a lazy post on my part.  I understand the significance of the distinction.  Are you on board with the larger point ??? They are JD draft picks that are not on the field and contributing regardless of said distinction. 

Am I supposed to deny they are hurt?  Of course they are not on the field. OTOH,  I don't know why we were supposed to be sure Becton wouldn't last the season.  Only reason other than luck would be the @Matt39 football commitment theory, which certainly might be valid.  Right now 2020 looks pretty bad, but it is still early.  If Becton, Mims and Hall work out and Davis is a rotational/special teamer?  It's not horrible. 

[CanadaSteve]

On 9/15/2021 at 10:23 AM, jbt said:

A monkey throwing sh*t on a wall with the list of all draftees could of done a better job the last 10 years.  Early returns on JD are not that good but need at least another 2 years to decide.  If he needs to go the Jets need to hire someone with actual GM experience and good results

 

Yeah, there is like, six guys like that.  And they are always employed by the same team.  You have to keep trying to find one who can do it.  And JD could be, IF he actually gets 5-6 years.  Mac got 5 years, and so he should have.  He just couldn't draft worth a crap.  But you need about that many drafts to fully know.  

[THE BARON]

18 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

That'll he'll need to radically change his approach and probably fire a bunch of scouts, and maybe even some higher level front office people?  

Not sure myself.  Considering contract, all there is to do is hope it gets better.  I'm not calling for his head because he's going to be onboard until at least 2024.  Just pointing out that it has been a letdown thus far based on his draft and fa results

[THE BARON]

6 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Am I supposed to deny they are hurt?  Of course they are not on the field. OTOH,  I don't know why we were supposed to be sure Becton wouldn't last the season.  Only reason other than luck would be the @Matt39 football commitment theory, which certainly might be valid.  Right now 2020 looks pretty bad, but it is still early.  If Becton, Mims and Hall work out and Davis is a rotational/special teamer?  It's not horrible. 

Time well tell.  Thus far, not looking good.  AVT and Wilson could tip the scale in JD's favor.  At the moment, I just hope Wilson survives it.  True, the line may get better with time, but does the QB have time ???  I saw his bead bounce off the turf last week due to horrible blocking.  That could have been a concussion right there.  A few of those and it is career. 

[Jetsfan80]

40 minutes ago, THE BARON said:

Not sure myself.  Considering contract, all there is to do is hope it gets better.  I'm not calling for his head because he's going to be onboard until at least 2024.  Just pointing out that it has been a letdown thus far based on his draft and fa results

Yep and that's fair.  I had high hopes and still continue to trust he knows what he's doing, but the next several weeks of the season are going to be crucial.  

And if he fails we are screwed for a long time, because the Johnson's will be hiring the next GM.  And that's guaranteed to fail as well.

[Matt39]

1 hour ago, #27TheDominator said:

Am I supposed to deny they are hurt?  Of course they are not on the field. OTOH,  I don't know why we were supposed to be sure Becton wouldn't last the season.  Only reason other than luck would be the @Matt39 football commitment theory, which certainly might be valid.  Right now 2020 looks pretty bad, but it is still early.  If Becton, Mims and Hall work out and Davis is a rotational/special teamer?  It's not horrible. 

Not saying that’s it with Becton. I am saying that the Jets need to do a better job identifying  commitment. This spans multiple GM’s.

I remember Willie Colon saying coming from Pitt to the Jets was beyond eye opening in terms of the organizations overall commitment to football. I think the draft struggles validate that.

[addage]

On 9/15/2021 at 11:38 AM, Paradis said:

Minus a blip in the mid-late 2000s I have/could have drafted better than every Jets GM in the last 30 years. I mean that in a literal sense. 

And most of you think i'm an idiot. 

I'd like to know more about how GMs apply for jobs. 

By your own standard, you are ineligible to be the Jets GM.  If we bring in a GM who is even average at drafting, how can we be SOJ?  No one in management will take that risk.

[jgb]

6 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Well then you're asking the Johnson's to hire a new GM.  So we know that will fail.

Ride it out with Douglas as long as possible.  At the very least, he's boxed the Johnson's out from decision-making and has made very solid trades, so that's enough for now to say he's better than the last 2 GM's we've had.  And even with limited information so far, Wilson appears to be a superior prospect to Darnold so that's a step in the right direction too.

So if his first 2 drafts end up being poor the first step needs to be re-tooling our draft philosophy and/or doing a full-on hatchet job on the scouting department before you look to fire Douglas.  He's well-respected around the league so it would look absolutely horrible for this org if the Jets fire him after just 2.5 years after having kept Maccagnan around for 5.

Douglas gets 4 years at bare minimum, whether people like it or not.  He's in what, year 3 of a 6-year deal?  No shot at all that the Johnson's fire him after this season no matter how bad things look.

People keep saying "if you like it or not." I know I have no influence but we're all sharing opinions here, and that's mine. I was all in on JD but he needs a draft hit ASAP otherwise, I'm done with him. It's Zack or bust in my mind. He simply has zero other hits to defend him on. Sure he unloaded players. That's great. Better than Macc, yes. But you can't unload your way to prosperity if the magic beans you get in return don't sprout into beanstalks. Look, I'm with you, it's likely ride or die with him at least 2 more years. But the bullish case for him is tanking by the day. The OL has entered inexcusable territory. Even his ardent defenders have to admit that. I know I'm always among the first to advocate cutting bait... ain't been wrong in a long time. I can take the butt fumbles. In fact, Jets fans are the greatest contrary indicator in sport. I fear JD is a bust. If Zack hasn't shown strong FQB potential by end year, time to tune out again until next regime change as I did with Macc/Darnold.

[jgb]

4 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Yep and that's fair.  I had high hopes and still continue to trust he knows what he's doing, but the next several weeks of the season are going to be crucial.  

And if he fails we are screwed for a long time, because the Johnson's will be hiring the next GM.  And that's guaranteed to fail as well.

**** fair. "'Fair" is the argument of losers. Earn it. Don't appeal to emotion for it.

[jgb]

6 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

The Johnson's have no interest in firing Douglas any time soon.  Get used to him being here thru 2023 no matter how much you kick and scream about it.  So let's just hope these picks show something, things get better under the brand new coaching staff, and that Douglas learns from his mistakes.  Because he's not going anywhere this offseason.  

You -- along with I -- just spent the last 2 years kicking and screaming about how bad Darnold sucks. This is a messageboard and we're entitled to our opinion. Since when do you have to demonstrate the ability to influence the Jets to comment on them?

How can someone be so adamant at saying Darnold sucks after 3 years while defending JD? JD is worse than Darnold at his job. Results matter, right? That's your whole case against Darnold. The defense of JD sounds eerily like the defense of Darnold.

-JD "flashes" when unloading players

-JD has pedigree and potential

-He's a decent dude

Screw all that. Results count. And the results ain't good.  You had no problem woodshedding Darnold. Why are you kid-gloving JD? The dude has made the OL -- his area of expertise -- worse despite dumping massive capital into it. Yet, he's suddenly supposed to be able to fix all the other holes that he's not an expert in? 

"He's better than Macc" is not an argument. Otherwise you've gotta apologize to all those who defended Darnold because he was better than the worst QB the Jets ever had.

[Jetsfan80]

2 hours ago, jgb said:

You -- along with I -- just spent the last 2 years kicking and screaming about how bad Darnold sucks. This is a messageboard and we're entitled to our opinion. Since when do you have to demonstrate the ability to influence the Jets to comment on them?

How can someone be so adamant at saying Darnold sucks after 3 years while defending JD? JD is worse than Darnold at his job. Results matter, right? That's your whole case against Darnold. The defense of JD sounds eerily like the defense of Darnold.

-JD "flashes" when unloading players

-JD has pedigree and potential

-He's a decent dude

Screw all that. Results count. And the results ain't good.  You had no problem woodshedding Darnold. Why are you kid-gloving JD? The dude has made the OL -- his area of expertise -- worse despite dumping massive capital into it. Yet, he's suddenly supposed to be able to fix all the other holes that he's not an expert in? 

"He's better than Macc" is not an argument. Otherwise you've gotta apologize to all those who defended Darnold because he was better than the worst QB the Jets ever had.

QBs and GMs are not the same.  QBs show whether they have it or not very quickly.  With GMs it’s a good bit more complex because some players/systems/coaching staffs do need time to develop/implement what they’re doing, and thus I’m not throwing in the towel 17 games into his regime.  Hell, I didn’t finally give up on Darnold until his 28th start.  

Like I said, the next few weeks will be crucial to show if any of the work he’s put in the last 2+ offseasons will pay off.   The players he’s acquired have to show something or he needs to completely re-tool how he does things.  That will be the first step.  You can’t saddle a 2nd year HC on a GM who doesn’t want him so Douglas and Saleh need to get things figured out very quickly and get this team playing competitive football.  

[Albaniajet]

1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

QBs and GMs are not the same.  QBs show whether they have it or not very quickly.  With GMs it’s a good bit more complex because some players/systems/coaching staffs do need time to develop/implement what they’re doing, and thus I’m not throwing in the towel 17 games into his regime.  Hell, I didn’t finally give up on Darnold until his 28th start.  

Like I said, the next few weeks will be crucial to show if any of the work he’s put in the last 2+ offseasons will pay off.   The players he’s acquired have to show something or he needs to completely re-tool how he does things.  That will be the first step.  You can’t saddle a 2nd year HC on a GM who doesn’t want him so Douglas and Saleh need to get things figured out very quickly and get this team playing competitive football.  

JD blows

[Jet_Engine1]

On 9/15/2021 at 12:49 PM, southparkcpa said:

I wanted Wirtz over Becton. Watching Wirtz jump out of a pool was so impressive.....  then  he took Cameron Clarke from UNCC as that was Becton's friend.  Both have not seen the field and Wirtz is kicking ass.

Wirfs.

 

Wirfs....

[Albaniajet]

19 minutes ago, Jet_Engine1 said:

Wirfs.

 

Wirfs....

Is a Right Tackle whose qb throws the ball in .2 secs

[Jet_Engine1]

24 minutes ago, Albaniajet said:

Is a Right Tackle whose qb throws the ball in .2 secs

I was correcting my buddy who called him Wirtz 3 times...

 

Try to keep up.

[batman10023]

On 9/15/2021 at 2:30 PM, Sports-Journalism101 said:

What absolutely nobody on this Jets Nation Forums has taken into account is the degree to which the Coronavirus 2019 Pandemic and accompanying limitations on NCAA Football has impacted the ability of NFL scouting personnel to accurately predict the potential of NFL prospects.  Consider for a moment that NFL scouts were basically consigned to depending upon the same tools as amateur scouts, such as myself.  This meant they: (1) watched tape, (2) spoke to self-interested coaches that want their former players to be drafted to chase clout and improve their own high school level recruiting, (3) spoke to players, and (4) watched limited in-person workouts.  This is meaningfully different than ordinary course scouting.  Also the level of talent was different in the NCAA itself with players opting out, certain teams not playing full schedules, and other similar factors.

I had a conversation with one of the longest tenured New York Jets beat reporters (my former professor) where I predicted to him that the 2021 Draft Class would be one of the most inconsistent and least correlated with draft position of the past 15 years.  Among other things, you will see pro bowlers in the fourth round and first round draft picks out of the league in two years.  He thought it was a fascinating take and told me that I should do a substack article about it.  I have one in the cooker but have not been ready to publish yet as I am still working on my prose.

In any event, I am not an advocate for Joe Douglas but, when you place the 2021 Draft into context, I do not think it will ultimately be particularly revelatory as to Joe Douglas' acumen as an evaluator of talent or General Manager more generally.  

I wonder about The quality of our draft team.  This has gone on for way too long. 

[Albaniajet]

7 hours ago, batman10023 said:

I wonder about The quality of our draft team.  This has gone on for way too long. 

If JD keeps whiffing he’s going to be as infamous on here as Mac and Idzik in about a year

 

what a disaster

[jgb]

12 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

QBs and GMs are not the same.  QBs show whether they have it or not very quickly.  With GMs it’s a good bit more complex because some players/systems/coaching staffs do need time to develop/implement what they’re doing, and thus I’m not throwing in the towel 17 games into his regime.  Hell, I didn’t finally give up on Darnold until his 28th start.  

Like I said, the next few weeks will be crucial to show if any of the work he’s put in the last 2+ offseasons will pay off.   The players he’s acquired have to show something or he needs to completely re-tool how he does things.  That will be the first step.  You can’t saddle a 2nd year HC on a GM who doesn’t want him so Douglas and Saleh need to get things figured out very quickly and get this team playing competitive football.  

Still seems inconsistent but thanks for giving more detail on your perspective. To be clear I am still on the hope and trust wagon with Saleh. But JD's track record it's troubling given that we now have the beginnings or a material sample size on which to judge him. 

Two drafts with no marquee hits is pretty rough. But as we all acknowledge, a FQB cures a lot of ills. If Zack shows it, that buys him more time in my mind (not that it matters, as we all acknowledge).

[Sports-Journalism101]

10 hours ago, batman10023 said:

I wonder about The quality of our draft team.  This has gone on for way too long. 

When I speak to Jets fans that are at least 25 years old, there seems to be a nostalgia for the drafting prowess of the Jets in the mid-2000s under Head Coach Eric Mangini and General Manager Mike Tannenbaum.  To some degree this is understandable as there were several early round successes that formed the foundation of successful playoff teams like Darrelle Revis, Nick Mangold, and D'Brickashaw Ferguson, and there were later round players that were at least decent contributors like Eric Smith.  By contrast, the team's drafting seemed to go downhill since Rex Ryan took over as head coach with swings and misses like Quinton Coples and Kyle Wilson as examples.  

From speaking with some of the New York Jets beat reporters, the distinct impression I have gotten is that the drafts since 2009 have been below average in terms of identifying talent, but the coaching staff has also been well below average in terms of developing talent.  I do not think there is a clean way to disaggregate the poor talent evaluation and poor talent development.  So, its difficult to confidently say that Joe Douglas and the talent evaluation side is miserable based on the swings and misses over the past two drafts.  Sure he's had misses but, missing on draft picks is a statistical inevitability.  I guess what worries me is the consistently similar types of misses - e.g., he seems to heavily discount injury risk and, after the first few rounds, drafts players that were not on anybody's draft board and may well have been UDFAs if he didn't pick them in the 5th round.  So, you see a tendency to swing for the fences with his drafting strategy.  If he wants to keep swinging for the fences rather than trying to get singles, he better be self-reflective and capable of moving on from his strikeouts rather than tie this team to the performance of busts.