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Draft Capital vs efficiency


southparkcpa

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31 minutes ago, Origen said:

And Mike Ditka was a Hall of Fame Tight End who traded an entire Draft class to get Ricky Williams.  Everybody is an idiot or a genius, which was he?

#1 He's not the only GM out there offering contracts to players, other teams are involved.  If you want to "build" a team you can't overwhelm every free agent you want to guarantee they will come and expect to have any money to be able to do anything else.

#2 LT who had no preseason last year and played out pretty damn well, then people freaked out about practice reps and the first game sucked because of the other side of the line.  OK, sure.  But they are learning a new system and playing together for the first time, kinda like last year, so seeing the results like last year while disappointing was not all that shocking.

#3 RG who missed the whole preseason and played his first NFL game ever. 

 

I would hate to see how you rate yourself at the end of each day with the criteria you seem to have for others. 

It rains on all teams.  There are excuses and there are excuses.

I'm not going to get personal in this forum regarding my own professional performance and rating.  Not the place for it and you would likely accuse me of being a braggart. 

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2 hours ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Couldn't disagree more.

Firing Douglas after three years (and only two drafts) and picking a third 1st round QB in 5 years in insane and the definition of disfunction. Why would anyone want to come here? And why would anyone think that with the limited pool of applicants who would want to walk into this the Johnson brothers would make the right hire?

Douglas, Saleh, and Wilson are the guys through the end of 2023, at least.

I agree with everything except making Wilson as “the guy”. If Wilson doesn’t flash, and there’s a top QB staring you down in 2022 draft or even FA (not sure who), you take him. Keep Wilson too but don’t let the next Mahomes walk by since we all know the guy we’ll pass on will be an elite talent. Keeping swinging. What’s the worse that can happen? Can it be much worse than winning 2 games a year? What’s the best outcome? You might actually hit a home run. Draft a QB every year until you have a sure fire franchise QB or have seen some flashes. 

Having said that, I think Wilson stays here 5 years minimum. I can see why he was the second pick. Tony Romo already has a life sized doll of Wilson in his basement. 

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2 minutes ago, Jet2020 said:

I agree with everything except making Wilson as “the guy”. If Wilson doesn’t flash, and there’s a top QB staring you down in 2022 draft or even FA (not sure who), you take him. Keep Wilson too but don’t let the next Mahomes walk by since we all know the guy we’ll pass on will be an elite talent. Keeping swinging. What’s the worse that can happen? Can it be much worse than winning 2 games a year? What’s the best outcome? You might actually hit a home run. Draft a QB every year until you have a sure fire franchise QB or have seen some flashes. 

Having said that, I think Wilson stays here 5 years minimum. I can see why he was the second pick. Tony Romo already has a life sized doll of Wilson in his basement. 

Unless Wilson is absolutely dreadful -- like Hackenberg level bad -- I see no way this is a realistic scenario.

If you have the conviction to take someone 2 overall you need to invest in them and give them a shot.

And really, if you're one of the top QBs in the NFL Draft in 2022 -- you'd be insane not to refuse to play for the Jets after they dump Wilson in one year.

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6 minutes ago, CanadienJetsFan said:

This GM is in charge for the next 3years, like it or not.

ownership is finally staying out of the way and people here want JD canned.

go figure.

No Hall of Famers in either of his draft classes.  I know you are supposed to have a career and then 5 years after before they decide on that stuff, but, unless one of those 10 guys gets a Gold Jacket before October he should be flayed publicly.

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2 hours ago, THE BARON said:

What JD draft pick or FA move is working out ? 2020 class was a disaster

2020: Becton - Not working out/injured and may never work out.  

2020: Mims - looks to be in the doghouse and has underwhelmed. 

2020: Davis - practice squad

2020: Zuniga - Wasted pick and with good interior lineman on the board to boot.  Hated this pick. 

2020: Perine - Not much here so far. 

2020: Captain Morgan - Ugh

2020: Hall - Could be a good pick. 

2020: Mann - practice squad

Do you know the difference between injured reserve and the practice squad?  I'm surprised you didn't list Becton as "practice squad."  Hall probably can already be considered a good pick considering the number of starts for a 6th.  Mims and Davis are probably bad fits for this team, but should be able to contribute.  The pendulum on Becton seems insane.  Last year people were penciling him in the pro bowl and seriously claiming anybody that preferred Wirfs was an idiot.  Now he is trash?  I am sure the truth lies somewhere in between, but hopefully he gets over the injuries and conditioning issues.  

IMO, Zuniga was worth the swing.  They missed but what can you do?  Who were these interior linemen you wanted?  Cushenberry?  I don't remember being in love with him draft day myself.  Who else?: I would probably have gone Niang or Peart, but they aren't "interior lineman."   I also doubt you'd be happy with Niang opting out last season, though at least he is starting at RT now.  Peart played some, but he doesn't even start for the Giants and they are horrible.  I don't much like the 2020 class, but it is a bit early to start spreading the dirt on them.  Hopefully this year's class is much better, but it will probably take some time.  The DBs are pretty raw, AVT and Moore missed the preseason and they have 2 guys switching positions.  

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The entire line is made up of Douglas signings, players we’ve invested a ton in. They have to come good or he has to be out.

The Jets 2022 draft class is going to be so crucial given the number of picks we have. We need a guy on board who can actually evaluate the talent. 2020 could beat out any of Mac’s at this rate, even if the picks were the right positions it matters for nothing if they are complete busts. Worse still when you pass on elite talents like Wirfs and Claypool to get them.

Douglas should be under so much pressure. These guys have to show something or we must move on. The desperate excuses made for him are expiring with every week.

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1 hour ago, #27TheDominator said:

Do you know the difference between injured reserve and the practice squad?  I'm surprised you didn't list Becton as "practice squad." 

Yes.  Incorrectly referred to Davis & Mann as practice squad.  I stand corrected.  From the Jets official site.  Regardless, they are not on filed contributing.  Add Becton as well to IR even though I did not incorrectly refer to him as practice squad

OL Mekhi Becton - Reserve/Injured
LB Blake Cashman - Reserve/Injured
OL Cameron Clark - Reserve/Injured
DL Vinny Curry - Reserve/NFI
S Ashtyn Davis - Reserve/Injured
OL Parker Ferguson - Reserve/Injured
DB Saquan Hampton - Reserve/PUP
S Lamarcus Joyner - Reserve/Injured
DL Carl Lawson - Reserve/Injured
OL Alex Lewis - Reserve/Left Squad
S Zane Lewis - Reserve/Injured
P Braden Mann - Reserve/Injured
DL Kyle Phillips - Reserve/PUP
OL Teton Saltes - Reserve/Injured

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2 minutes ago, THE BARON said:

Yes.  Incorrectly referred to Davis & Mann as practice squad.  I stand corrected.  From the Jets official site.  Regardless, they are not on filed contributing.  Add Becton as well to IR even though I did not incorrectly refer to him as practice squad

OL Mekhi Becton - Reserve/Injured
LB Blake Cashman - Reserve/Injured
OL Cameron Clark - Reserve/Injured
DL Vinny Curry - Reserve/NFI
S Ashtyn Davis - Reserve/Injured
OL Parker Ferguson - Reserve/Injured
DB Saquan Hampton - Reserve/PUP
S Lamarcus Joyner - Reserve/Injured
DL Carl Lawson - Reserve/Injured
OL Alex Lewis - Reserve/Left Squad
S Zane Lewis - Reserve/Injured
P Braden Mann - Reserve/Injured
DL Kyle Phillips - Reserve/PUP
OL Teton Saltes - Reserve/Injured

Adding here.... I had Cashman and Lawson listed on IR before the season started.  I figured as did many that they would not make it past game 1 of the regular season in one piece

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Go back to the Mangini years- the draft interview process was super rigorous and he implemented some guardrails that helped eliminate "football commitment questions" type players from the draft process. It produced some college overachievers who couldn't produce in the league, but it was by far the best draft stretch this organization has had over the last two decades. Gholston being the one outlier where the draft sucked and he took a swing and miss. Hell if Ashytn Davis turned into Eric Smith at this point it'd be a shock

IMO, this is a big reason why they continue to struggle in the draft. You need guys that love football first. The Jets arent just missing, they're whiffing on guys who end up out of football entirely. 

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1 hour ago, THE BARON said:

Yes.  Incorrectly referred to Davis & Mann as practice squad.  I stand corrected.  From the Jets official site.  Regardless, they are not on filed contributing.  Add Becton as well to IR even though I did not incorrectly refer to him as practice squad

OL Mekhi Becton - Reserve/Injured
LB Blake Cashman - Reserve/Injured
OL Cameron Clark - Reserve/Injured
DL Vinny Curry - Reserve/NFI
S Ashtyn Davis - Reserve/Injured
OL Parker Ferguson - Reserve/Injured
DB Saquan Hampton - Reserve/PUP
S Lamarcus Joyner - Reserve/Injured
DL Carl Lawson - Reserve/Injured
OL Alex Lewis - Reserve/Left Squad
S Zane Lewis - Reserve/Injured
P Braden Mann - Reserve/Injured
DL Kyle Phillips - Reserve/PUP
OL Teton Saltes - Reserve/Injured

I know I like to split hairs and bust balls, but it is a pretty big distinction. Becton has 14 starts.  Davis has 6.  Yes they have been hurt and are not on the field contributing right now, but they certainly have in the past.  Neither would last 20 seconds on a practice squad without getting scooped.  Zuniga who you merely refer to as "wasted pick" is actually on the practice squad.  I think we all agree there is pretty big jump from him to Davis.  

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5 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

I know I like to split hairs and bust balls, but it is a pretty big distinction. Becton has 14 starts.  Davis has 6.  Yes they have been hurt and are not on the field contributing right now, but they certainly have in the past.  Neither would last 20 seconds on a practice squad without getting scooped.  Zuniga who you merely refer to as "wasted pick" is actually on the practice squad.  I think we all agree there is pretty big jump from him to Davis.  

Becton wouldnt because of the pedigree, but its more sounding like he could go on full season IR with him getting other opinions on his knee. Davis would clear waivers. 

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7 hours ago, bealeb319 said:

I think with the Cardinals Rosen was a bit worse off than not obviously the guy. The kid was lazy entitled and and he flat out was terrible. If Zach shows promise you don't dump him or waste a pick on a qb unless you are certain that qb is going to be great.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using JetNation.com mobile app
 

Devil is in the details. Obviously it depends on the situation and there are shades of grey. There’s also a big swath of grey in there where Jets finally do what I haven’t seen them do in my lifetime — bring an actual, legit vet in. Not an ancient Brunel or Vick or Flacco — a dude with as many years ahead of him as behind. I desperately wanted Tannehill to push Sam, as one example. And he was cheap.

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8 hours ago, #27TheDominator said:

Idzik was literally fired in record time without being allowed to pick a QB or head coach.  They didn't even wait until the end of the season to dump Maccagnan and Gase got 2 years, one of which was spent fighting with his GM.  Nobody fails faster, baby.  

Not talking about FO, we cling to QBs way too long. The fanbase too. What is it about QBs where they get the kid glove treatment. Keep swinging away. If Zach isn’t obviously the dude end of year — depending on failure level — Jets would be wise to have a plan B. Either the Rosen treatment or the Mariota treatment.

 

PS Idzik drafted Geno 

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8 hours ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Couldn't disagree more.

Firing Douglas after three years (and only two drafts) and picking a third 1st round QB in 5 years in insane and the definition of disfunction. Why would anyone want to come here? And why would anyone think that with the limited pool of applicants who would want to walk into this the Johnson brothers would make the right hire?

Douglas, Saleh, and Wilson are the guys through the end of 2023, at least.

 

After 3 years JD has zero draft hits. Even his area of expertise — OL — is still a league joke. If Wilson isn’t a player by end year he will be an abject failure. I’ll just tune out again til he’s inevitably gone.

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10 hours ago, jgb said:

I wouldn’t give him two more years. If Zach isn’t obviously the guy by year end, time to do what cardinals did with Rosen and move on. With a new GM to pick the next savior. Jets have not only been bad but they also haven’t learned how to fail fast. Every disastrous era of our history has played out in slow motion.

This has about 0% chance of ever happening

Thankfully.

 

 

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9 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

He's getting no less than this year and next year at a minimum, like it or not, and it's not without reason.

What if the best available candidate wants to hire his own HC (or if the best candidate is a HC-GM, in responsibility or size, like Andy Reid was)? Or is a new GM candidate in January supposed to also inherit Saleh like when Woody last went GM-shopping while retaining Rex? And you're not going to know whether or not Saleh is a net positive or negative in a GM search until after you fire the existing one.

So in the end, what you're likely to get is just change for the sake of change, and replacing Douglas with the next Maccagnan or Idzik. Never mind the idea that GMs aren't going to be flocking to the Jets to inherit a purportedly failed QB (or be second-guessed for moving away from him too soon). Put aside that Wilson isn't Rosen. Rosen is closer to Ryan Leaf than to Wilson, even if Wilson doesn't truly wow us as a rookie.

All this is on top of the reality that it'll be the same owner making the GM hiring decision. Bad as Gase was as a HC here, the chance of success was still better with an experienced NFL coach putting his finger on the scale. Still think the chance of him smartening up by being more conventional is better than the next blind guess from J&J along with being saddled by (presumably) a HC who failed in his 1st season. 

I know he’s not getting booted end of this year because Johnson’s are morons. If Zach doesn’t show shades of FQB play by end season what exactly is there to defend JD on? That he traded 3 players drafted by Macc for decent draft capital? The same Macc who we all now universally acclaim to be the worst drafter in Jets history? JD hasn’t drafted anyone that the next GM could even trade away for more than late conditionals.

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25 minutes ago, jgb said:

Not talking about FO, we cling to QBs way too long. The fanbase too. What is it about QBs where they get the kid glove treatment. Keep swinging away. If Zach isn’t obviously the dude end of year — depending on failure level — Jets would be wise to have a plan B. Either the Rosen treatment or the Mariota treatment.

 

PS Idzik drafted Geno 

They dumped Darnold pretty quick.  I agree about the kid glove treatment.  I was yelling for them to use more RPO stuff and use Darnold's legs.  Not that he is Jackson or Allen, but it could have put some pressure defenses.  Guys like Darnold and Trubisky are expendable.  Why keep bullets in the chamber?  Keeping the guy healthy is nice, but I would do what I could to let him succeed.  My explanation?  Gase.

Geno was a 2nd and their fhird pick of the draft.  Not exactly trading up to #5 or #3 overall or #2 overall. 

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2 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

They dumped Darnold pretty quick.  I agree about the kid glove treatment.  I was yelling for them to use more RPO stuff and use Darnold's legs.  Not that he is Jackson or Allen, but it could have put some pressure defenses.  Guys like Darnold and Trubisky are expendable.  Why keep bullets in the chamber?  Keeping the guy healthy is nice, but I would do what I could to let him succeed.  My explanation?  Gase.

Geno was a 2nd and their fhird pick of the draft.  Not exactly trading up to #5 or #3 overall or #2 overall. 
 

I’m sick of all eggs in one basket. I don’t care what a decent backup will do to a QB’s delicate psyche. Bring in a legit vet.

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1 minute ago, jgb said:

I’m sick of all eggs in one basket. I don’t care what a decent backup will do to a QB’s delicate psyche. Bring in a legit vet.

Eh.  I don't want a legit vet like Flacco, Siemian or Vick.  I think there is a better chance of Mike White turning into a Romo or Trent Green.  I guess a guy like Minshew would be agreeable to us both, but Nick Foles?  No ******* thanks.  

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2 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Eh.  I don't want a legit vet like Flacco, Siemian or Vick.  I think there is a better chance of Mike White turning into a Romo or Trent Green.  I guess a guy like Minshew would be agreeable to us both, but Nick Foles?  No ******* thanks.  

Ive already specifically said no Vick Flacco Brunel types in this thread. I want a guy with at least potential upside. Trubisky, Minshew, Tannehill, etc.

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Some of yall are so impatient.

"Hes been here 3 years and hasn't hit on any draft picks"

Well he's had 2 drafts In total. 2. The first 1 doesn't looks so great.  Agreed. I wanted wirfs over Becton and was screaming for Claypool.

But the 2nd draft class looks better on paper. But they have played a total of 1 game. 1 freaking game. Maybe Wilson AVT and Moore will all suck. But they have played 1 game. Hard to declare this draft class a bust after 1 game. Hard to judge JD after his 2 draft classes have played a total of 17 games.

We have a rookie qb. And a rookie head coach and a rookie offensive coordinator. Growing pains are expected if your a reasonable fan.

Add in the fact that the overall roster is far from spectacular. We have holes all over the place. he overtook 1 of the most talentless rosters in nfl history. This was never going to be an overnight fix.

Ultimately JD might end up being a disaster. Obviously we're the jets so its highly likely. But atleast he has a plan unlike previous gms. I think he needs atleast 1 more draft before you can even consider firing him. 

 

 

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37 minutes ago, jgb said:

I’m sick of all eggs in one basket. I don’t care what a decent backup will do to a QB’s delicate psyche. Bring in a legit vet.

On the one hand, of course the New York Jets should invest in having Backup Quarterback that is capable of both successfully starting if called upon, and, in the best case scenario, capable of competing to be the actual Starting Quarterback.  On the other hand, the instinct to use scarce resources on the Quarterback position has led to draft headscratchers like James Morgan.  This is to say that your guiding principle of going all in on the Quarterback position comes with a strong caveat that the competitive Backup Quarterback should be a veteran that is not past his productive peak and not so expensive that it prevents the New York Jets from developing the rest of the (lackluster) roster.  With that caveat, I have no strong objections to the view you have expressed but note that the players fitting that model are not frequently available.  Unless 49ers try to move James (Jimmy) Garoppolo at a discount, I am not seeing anyone that really fits the mold.  That being said, I would happily bring in Jimmy Garoppolo for 5-7 rounder should the 49ers want to start the Trey Lance era.  At the very least it would push Zachary Wilson and introduce a voice in the Quarterback room that could help Zachary Wilson develop.  

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9 hours ago, BornJetsFan1983 said:

they were good because of brady not draft picks they actually were notoriously bad at drafting. FYI

Did you read the article?  It says they are the 8th best in the league at getting returns on their draft capital over ten years.  The top ten are more or less exactly who you might think, as they're pretty much been the dominant teams in the league which once again reinforces that drafting correctly is everything.

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R-E-L-A-X.

 

We’re not going to know the real trajectory of this thing for a good while.  I don’t want JD going anywhere  until at earliest after the 2023 season, even if the results are bad.  For once we have an actual plan and for once we have to let it play out over years.  
 

Can we acknowledge that we may actually have a FQB for the first time (without solely focusing that we may ruin him). That we have an inspiring HC that schemed a bunch of 22 year old no names to only giving up 19 points on their first game?
 

For way too long the org has been poisoned by directionless quick fixes coupled with awful personnel choices.  So bad that our cap is still saddled with over $20 mill in dead money this season, think about just how bad (and incredible) that is.  The tumor has been cut out and we’re starting the healing phase. Brand new everyone. One game in.  
 

We were worse off than an expansion team.  JD didn’t start from scratch, he started in a hole.  I finally feel like this team has chosen a direction and I am prepared to wait years to see how it plays out, can’t be any worse than the past decade.

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2 hours ago, Hael said:

Did you read the article?  It says they are the 8th best in the league at getting returns on their draft capital over ten years.  The top ten are more or less exactly who you might think, as they're pretty much been the dominant teams in the league which once again reinforces that drafting correctly is everything.

Its easy to say that the Patriot built great teasms or bill is a good coach when Brady is your qb. The Packers draft great they are winners...well not much when Rogers sucks... That was my only point. Id the article says what you say them I dissagree...was Mangini a good coach? No bret farve is awesome. He won the games not the coach ro drafting...etc

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9 hours ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Unless Wilson is absolutely dreadful -- like Hackenberg level bad -- I see no way this is a realistic scenario.

If you have the conviction to take someone 2 overall you need to invest in them and give them a shot.

And really, if you're one of the top QBs in the NFL Draft in 2022 -- you'd be insane not to refuse to play for the Jets after they dump Wilson in one year.

If Jets were to dump Wilson, it wouldn’t be without a cause. That should go without saying. And rookies rarely care who drafts them as long as they are picked as high as possible. 

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18 hours ago, UntouchableCrew said:

I believe in his pedigree and his approach.

I agree thus far the results are disappointing. But he inherited a mess. You can't draft poorly for 10 years and expect anyone to turn it around in two years.

Sure we can, this is the JN website where every poster is qualified GM material, with such "Captain Hindsight" abilities.

This is Saleh's first year with JD, and I fully anticipate them getting the next 3 years together, so buckle up cupcakes you're in for a long ride. 

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9 hours ago, Darnold Schwarzenegger said:

Some of yall are so impatient.

"Hes been here 3 years and hasn't hit on any draft picks"

Well he's had 2 drafts In total. 2. The first 1 doesn't looks so great.  Agreed. I wanted wirfs over Becton and was screaming for Claypool.

But the 2nd draft class looks better on paper. But they have played a total of 1 game. 1 freaking game. Maybe Wilson AVT and Moore will all suck. But they have played 1 game. Hard to declare this draft class a bust after 1 game. Hard to judge JD after his 2 draft classes have played a total of 17 games.

We have a rookie qb. And a rookie head coach and a rookie offensive coordinator. Growing pains are expected if your a reasonable fan.

Add in the fact that the overall roster is far from spectacular. We have holes all over the place. he overtook 1 of the most talentless rosters in nfl history. This was never going to be an overnight fix.

Ultimately JD might end up being a disaster. Obviously we're the jets so its highly likely. But atleast he has a plan unlike previous gms. I think he needs atleast 1 more draft before you can even consider firing him. 

 

 

Impatient. LOL. There are no impatient Jets fans left.

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20 hours ago, kevinc855 said:

JD takes the high potential guy over the safe player but it hasn’t been working out for him 

His first big whiff in the draft was drafting Mekhi Becton over Tristan Wirfs, and imho his first big off-season miss before the 2020 draft was not targeting Brandon Scherff during the 2020 off-season. Scherff and Wirfs would have been great foundational pieces for an OL rebuild. 

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18 hours ago, UntouchableCrew said:

I believe in his pedigree and his approach.

I agree thus far the results are disappointing. But he inherited a mess. You can't draft poorly for 10 years and expect anyone to turn it around in two years.

It's not unreasonable to expect one lousy draft hit in 2 years. We are dangerously close to unrealistic support for JD with rookies contributing all over the league. Coupled with the fact that the Jets should be one of the easiest teams to crack the starting lineup on, JD's draft record is extremely poor. Zach should be his last chance. But I also know even if Wilson looks bad, JD is probably untouchable for 2 more years. Plus the Zach excuse train will be steaming full bore ahead. Let's hope we avoid that trip again and Zach just shows it.

39 minutes ago, 68JET11 said:

Sure we can, this is the JN website where every poster is qualified GM material, with such "Captain Hindsight" abilities.

This is Saleh's first year with JD, and I fully anticipate them getting the next 3 years together, so buckle up cupcakes you're in for a long ride. 

Except there are many here who pointed to better players before the Jets selected.

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