Aaron Rodgers to the Jets rumor: Merged

[Jetsfan4life90]

3 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Back to back last place finishes in the AFC East, a slightly worse record than the worst Head Coach in NFL history (Gase) had in 2019 here with much less talent, and one of the biggest bust QB's in NFL history.

Yeah Coach, impressive, that.  Receipts and such. 

Look beyond the last-place finishes. They were terrible in Saleh's first year for the most part, no doubt about it. But last season, the AFC East was tight for the most part that finishing in last place isn't an indication of anything. It was terrible QB play that really screwed the Jets last season from being a playoff team.

AR here and the Jets can/could take a similar leap that the Bucs did when they got Brady.

[nycdan]

I'm starting to allow for the possibility that this deal doesn't happen.  I believe, with no facts to back it up, that JD will not part with #13 in any scenario (unless it's a swap to #15 possibly).  Everything we've seen from him over 3 years suggests he does not overpay in trades by any significant amount, and he does not seem to panic.  I'm also starting to believe that Mark Murphy has made this a hill he wants to die on, probably knowing he has job security, and willing to let both teams lose in order not to look like he caved.  This has gone on long enough now, that any deal will create a storm of finger-pointing and judgment that neither team wants to be on the wrong end of.  If, as I am inclined to believe, GB moved the goalposts, JD is not the type of GM who will overpay to bail them out of a problem of their own making.  

Would GB be willing to actually go as far as entering TC with Rodgers on the roster?  Hard to believe a few weeks ago, but maybe their definition of winning is different from mine.  

So what happens if no deal?

I think the Jets would pick up a best-available veteran and go into TC with a competition where Zach gets a chance to show enough improvement under the new coaches and system to get the ball.  Yes, that will offend the fans (which the team should honestly give no sh-ts about), and maybe some of the players will be disappointed, but we go in with an incredibly talented roster around whoever the QB is.  Even league-average play from that position is playoff-contending.  If not, we'll do the QB reset next year but with a longer window in mind.  Maybe it's a vet like Cousins, or maybe a draft pick.  Way too early to even guess.

In any case, as excited as I was and am for Rogers to come here, I'm not of the opinion that we should overpay just because GB wants us to.  Those of you repeating "pay the 1st round pick and more because..." haven't considered, what if it's 2 first round picks.  Or 3.  There appears to be no line you wouldn't walk to in order to be right.  But there is a line, and JD is the only voice that matters in determining that.  

I'm also not inclined to call for JDs head if the deal doesn't happen because *we don't know what happened*.  Sometimes good things come from bad things.  It's time to decide if you are a fan of the team, or just in it for the 'woe is me' and the trolling.  The absolutism of some posters that the Jets had to be in the wrong, and that everyone should be fired over this is baffling to me.  If you can't root for the team without Rodgers, then....life choices.

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

10 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

If the trade happens in early June it will be 2024 trade comp. I don't get what you're talking about.

The ‘framework’ for a trade would likely have happened by now if both sides agreed that 2024 trade assets was mutually best for both teams.

The timing of the trade would need to wait but that’s merely a procedural thing.

The smoke clouds and Rodgers himself both say there is significant conflict, which Leads me to speculate (which this all is) that this is a 2023 issue.

[Barry McCockinner]

3 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

The ‘framework’ for a trade would likely have happened by now if both sides agreed that 2024 trade assets was mutually best for both teams.

The timing of the trade would need to wait but that’s merely a procedural thing.

The smoke clouds and Rodgers himself both say there is significant conflict, which Leads me to speculate (which this all is) that this is a 2023 issue.

 

 

Rodgers said there is significant conflict?

[Warfish]

4 minutes ago, Jetsfan4life90 said:

AR here and the Jets can/could take a similar leap that the Bucs did when they got Brady.

I don't believe that.  Sorry.

[32EBoozer]

3 minutes ago, nycdan said:

If, as I am inclined to believe, GB moved the goalposts, JD is not the type of GM who will overpay to bail them out of a problem of their own making.  

This.

[Barry McCockinner]

Just now, Warfish said:

I don't believe that.  Sorry.

I do.

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

Saleh just made it sound like Corey Davis is a stone cold lock to stay on the team

Baffling

[Sperm Edwards]

If it could get done before this year's draft, where he's in camp the whole spring/summer, I could stomach maxing out at something like (chart value listed first):

• 100: swap 1sts this year (2 slots)
• 470-480: one of this year's 2nds (42 or 43; I wouldn't walk over it)
• ~25-30: a day 3 pick in '24 (worst case for GB should be a bottom-half 4th rounder, unless the Jets make the SB or something)
• ~10-15: another day 3 pick tbd in '25 if Rodgers plays >50% of the snaps in '24 (the main conditional part of the deal)

Nominally GB could save some face by making the case it adds up to a #30-31 overall pick (i.e round 1) value. For the Jets it wouldn't feel anything like that, as it's spread over 3 seasons without actually giving up a 1st rounder who can be retained for a cheaper, 5th option season, and still retain picks in both rounds 1 and 2 this year (maybe more if they trade down from #13). Plus there's no chance the Jets end up forking over the #20 pick in '24 for a mega-expensive 1 & done season followed by a big, accelerated cap hit that same year.

We're not there yet, though. As of today I'm still sticking to something like that without a 1st round swap, or with something involving Davis (if we're just going to sign OBJ anyway). If they want a big upgrade to next year's pick if we make the SB with Rodgers, yeah I'm on board with that.

• I don't know that Davis (even at just 28 yrs old) has much trade value at his full salary - and don't know how much GB specifically values him - but it won't be literally nothing, as they should want a veteran starting WR for Love, plus could recoup a comp pick for him if they let his contract expire. GB could/should also put a salary squeeze on him in late Aug with an opportunity to earn it back if he's healthy: they'd have this leverage, as no one else is offering Davis $10MM+ for just the 2023 season at that late stage of the offseason; either way they'd be in line for a comp pick if he isn't retained.

[ptisme]

3 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

This.

I highly doubt the goal post was moved.   That wouldn’t jive with what I know and have seen from the Packers.   Remember they don’t want to sully their reputation in future dealings.  My guess is there was and is a gap that hasn’t been filled 

[32EBoozer]

1 minute ago, ptisme said:

My guess is there was and is a gap that hasn’t been filled 

Then why would GB grant permission to engage in talks with AR? Why would they allow for any ambiguity in this regard?

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

4 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Rodgers said there is significant conflict?

Did you see his appearance on Pat McAfee’s show?

Here’s another part of my speculation.  Would the Jets really draw a firm line in the sand trading a 2024 (late) first round pick that most draft experts would equate to a late 2023 first round pick.

• “Additionally, Rich Hill notes that there is no "perfect value" for future draft picks. They are often discounted in future trades, as teams view current assets as more valuable than future assets. Hill explains that the discount on those picks often amounts to about one round.”

 

[Barry McCockinner]

Just now, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

Did you see his appearance on Pat McAfee’s show?

Here’s another part of my speculation.  Would the Jets really draw a firm line in the sand trading a 2024 (late) first round pick that most draft experts would equate to a late 2023 first round pick.

• “Additionally, Rich Hill notes that there is no "perfect value" for future draft picks. They are often discounted in future trades, as teams view current assets as more valuable than future assets. Hill explains that the discount on those picks often amounts to about one round.”

 

Yes. I don't remember him saying anything about significant conflict. Can you refresh my memory?

[32EBoozer]

6 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

If it could get done before this year's draft, where he's in camp the whole spring/summer, I could stomach maxing out at something like (chart value listed first):

• 100: swap 1sts this year (2 slots)
• 470-480: one of this year's 2nds (42 or 43; I wouldn't walk over it)
• ~25-30: a day 3 pick in '24 (worst case for GB should be a bottom-half 4th rounder, unless the Jets make the SB or something)
• ~10-15: another day 3 pick tbd in '25 if Rodgers plays >50% of the snaps in '24 (the main conditional part of the deal)

Nominally GB could save some face by making the case it adds up to a #30-31 overall pick (i.e round 1) value. For the Jets it wouldn't feel anything like that, as it's spread over 3 seasons without actually giving up a 1st rounder who can be retained for a cheaper, 5th option season, and still retain picks in both rounds 1 and 2 this year (maybe more if they trade down from #13). Plus there's no chance the Jets end up forking over the #20 pick in '24 for a mega-expensive 1 & done season followed by a big, accelerated cap hit that same year.

We're not there yet, though. As of today I'm still sticking to something like that without a 1st round swap, or with something involving Davis (if we're just going to sign OBJ anyway). If they want a big upgrade to next year's pick if we make the SB with Rodgers, yeah I'm on board with that.

• I don't know that Davis (even at just 28 yrs old) has much trade value at his full salary - and don't know how much GB specifically values him - but it won't be literally nothing, as they should want a veteran starting WR for Love, plus could recoup a comp pick for him if they let his contract expire. GB could/should also put a salary squeeze on him in late Aug with an opportunity to earn it back if he's healthy: they'd have this leverage, as no one else is offering Davis $10MM+ for just the 2023 season at that late stage of the offseason; either way they'd be in line for a comp pick if he isn't retained.

As always, I come away from reading one of your posts impressed and confounded.

[Sperm Edwards]

1 minute ago, 32EBoozer said:

As always, I come away from reading one of your posts impressed and confounded.

Read it again. There will be a test on Friday.

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

Just now, Barry McCockinner said:

Yes. I don't remember him saying anything about significant conflict. Can you refresh my memory?

He seemed angry that the Packers were (in so many words) asking for too much and not allowing a fair trade to happen, since they moved on to Love which ‘he was fine with’.  Made it seem a little like a hostage situation.

That said, obviously that was a dramatic made for TV moment so who knows the reality.  He did however seem genuine in making it clear he was not the hold-up, nor was it the Jets, but rather the Packers who appeared to be playing hardball (which I imply as conflict).

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

A good, objective, non-sycophantic summary on Joe Douglas here.

Basically he’s been ripped off a bunch of times but that’s been swept under the collective consciousness by the Adams and Darnold trades.

https://jetsxfactor.com/2023/03/26/ny-jets-gm-joe-douglas-line-sand/

[Beerfish]

"Green Bay moved the goal posts"  so what?  Until a deal is done one team or the other can do what thy want.

Once the jets let the others drag their feet and thus remove any other viable candidate for the jets and let rodgers announce he is going to be a jet and now saleh essentially saying the same thing the packers can ask for the moon if they choose as they should.  Douglas would do the same if he a in their shoes.

At worst the packers cave in totally but get a bit of revenge on a guy who was a headache for them, at best they get more trade comp than they would have got previously..

[Tranquilo]

5 minutes ago, JoeNamathsFurCoat said:

A good, objective, non-sycophantic summary on Joe Douglas here.

Basically he’s been ripped off a bunch of times but that’s been swept under the collective consciousness by the Adams and Darnold trades.

https://jetsxfactor.com/2023/03/26/ny-jets-gm-joe-douglas-line-sand/

The thing is, most moves GMs make suck or aren't great. What's important is hitting on impact players from time to time. They make up for all the sh*tty moves. The last draft was huge.

[JETS SB]

2 hours ago, ptisme said:

True but the real deal makers for Rodgers are Cobb and Lewis who remain available.

You are joking right ? 

[Barry McCockinner]

1 minute ago, Beerfish said:

"Green Bay moved the goal posts"  so what?  Until a deal is done one team or the other can do what thy want.

Once the jets let the others drag their feet and thus remove any other viable candidate for the jets and let rodgers announce he is going to be a jet and now saleh essentially saying the same thing the packers can ask for the moon if they choose as they should.  Douglas would do the same if he a in their shoes.

At worst the packers cave in totally but get a bit of revenge on a guy who was a headache for them, at best they get more trade comp than they would have got previously..

They can ask for whatever they want. The Packers need to trade Rodgers so they will have to find someone willing to trade. So far as we know that's only the Jets.

That's not to say another team can't emerge, but it would need to be someone Rodgers is willing to play for or he can just retire and stick them with the cap hit they're trying to avoid with this whole thing. The Niners are the one team that concerns me atm. Of course the Packers would have to be willing to deal within the conference, but that would be a team Rodgers might want to play for with Superbowl aspirations.

I disagree there aren't other viable candidates out there. Both Stafford and Lamar have been said to be available for trade. There's also the draft and the Jets have a lot of flexibility with #13, #42 & #43 (#42 + #43 adds up to #17 in the value chart btw).

[choon328]

The Jets need to leak to one of their idiot beat reporters that if a trade for Rodgers is not done by the draft they will start looking into acquiring Lamar. That will get things moving. 

[nycdan]

13 minutes ago, JoeNamathsFurCoat said:

A good, objective, non-sycophantic summary on Joe Douglas here.

Basically he’s been ripped off a bunch of times but that’s been swept under the collective consciousness by the Adams and Darnold trades.

https://jetsxfactor.com/2023/03/26/ny-jets-gm-joe-douglas-line-sand/

What about this made you think 'objective'.  It's a completely subjective piece - one writer's opinions.  Every FA pickup that was injured gets flagged as an overpay by Douglas.  She brushes over the wins by lumping 2 or 3 in one sentence as opposed to a paragraph for each injured player.  Some, or most of them might have been slightly above-market, so the opinions aren't invalid by any means, but let's call it what it is.

[Beerfish]

5 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

They can ask for whatever they want. The Packers need to trade Rodgers so they will have to find someone willing to trade. So far as we know that's only the Jets.

That's not to say another team can't emerge, but it would need to be someone Rodgers is willing to play for or he can just retire and stick them with the cap hit they're trying to avoid with this whole thing. The Niners are the one team that concerns me atm. Of course the Packers would have to be willing to deal within the conference, but that would be a team Rodgers might want to play for with Superbowl aspirations.

I disagree there aren't other viable candidates out there. Both Stafford and Lamar have been said to be available for trade. There's also the draft and the Jets have a lot of flexibility with #13, #42 & #43 (#42 + #43 adds up to #17 in the value chart btw).

Stafford just signed an extension they are not trading him.

So we are going to pay a lot more for the QB Who wants a max for QB contract?

The Jets have to pay a contract that the Ravens will not match and give up two firsts.

The Jets have shown no interest in lamar so far if they had any they would be using that legit interest.

No, the jets are locked into Rodgers now, no amount of trying to manufacture other alternatives is going to change things.

The trade will get done.

[32EBoozer]

6 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

They can ask for whatever they want. The Packers need to trade Rodgers so they will have to find someone willing to trade. So far as we know that's only the Jets.

We also have AR making it difficult for GB to court other suitors. GB can seek to trade him to the 1 or 2 remaining teams that A) have the Cap Space to absorb his contract  and B ) He would be willing to play for.

He could easily tell them "I will not be reworking my contract and very likely will be retiring soon..... but I won't tell you when"

[Barry McCockinner]

Just now, Beerfish said:

Stafford just signed an extension they are not trading him.

So we are going to pay a lot more for the QB Who wants a max for QB contract?

The Jets have to pay a contract that the Ravens will not match and give up two firsts.

The Jets have shown no interest in lamar so far if they had any they would be using that legit interest.

No, the jets are locked into Rodgers now, no amount of trying to manufacture other alternatives is going to change things.

The trade will get done.

I think the trade gets done but it's not a situation where the Packers can just demand whatever they want. Both sides want the deal to happen. The Packers have to get it done.

 

[bla bla bla]

4 hours ago, 32EBoozer said:

Stafford contract has more Dead Money than Rodgers. Why would Vikings trade Cousins? They would want a 1st round pick.

Once traded post June 1 Stafford is $1.5m and $31m the next 2 years with zero dead cap after 2024 for his new team.

[32EBoozer]

2 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

No, the jets are locked into Rodgers now, no amount of trying to manufacture other alternatives is going to change things.

1) Bridgewater or 2) Wentz on a 1 yr. deal is always an option. Not ideal, but also not caving to extortion. I would be fine with Bridgewater and restart the development of Zach.

[bla bla bla]

4 hours ago, usanyj said:

Ryan, only problems I see with waiting until june is we still have to get players to round out the team.  You want them knowing for sure that rodgers is here.

Also, meetings and workouts begin on April 17, it would be nice to have rodgers officially be on the team and fully bought in and showing up to work with his new pass catchers.  OTA's start May 22nd.  It again would be great for him to begin developing chemistry with GW, Hardman, Mims, Uzomah, Conkilin, Ruckert... It would be great if he didn't just show up for mandatory mini camp in the middle of june and actual camp at the end of july.  

Waiting until june works monetarily, but it doesn't work in building chemistry with his new offense.  This isn't him going through the motions of year whatever with the pack, its year one with a new squad. It would be great to work through some issues early rather than working them out later into the summer and into the first few weeks of the season in a loaded AFC.

There are no rules saying Rodgers can't practice with our players. Just can't be at a team facility. If I were him I'd make a public announcement that is his intention, Packers would trade him so he doesn't get injured.

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

10 minutes ago, nycdan said:

What about this made you think 'objective'.  It's a completely subjective piece - one writer's opinions.  Every FA pickup that was injured gets flagged as an overpay by Douglas.  She brushes over the wins by lumping 2 or 3 in one sentence as opposed to a paragraph for each injured player.  Some, or most of them might have been slightly above-market, so the opinions aren't invalid by any means, but let's call it what it is.

The W-L record of 14-37 over the last 3 years is a stone cold fact.

Which of her statements do you disagree with?

McGovern was an overpay.  Giving 15M or whatever to get Ryan Khalil off the couch backfired.

Coughing up the ridiculous guarantees to CJU and Conk were stupid overpays, bidding against himself essentially.

Laken Tomlinson hasn't lived up to his money.

The Becton pick right now was objectively the wrong move.

[bla bla bla]

3 hours ago, Sammybighead said:

Bottom line: can you wait for gb until after the draft? Sure. But it takes even more viable options off the table for the jets. If for nothing else, it would take the threat of another viable option off the table. 

Stafford becomes tradable June 2nd and would be $1.5m and $31m the next 2 years with zero dead cap on his new team.

Would allow Zach to sit and the Jets to have a SB winning QB as the stop-gap.

[jetblue95]

5 minutes ago, JoeNamathsFurCoat said:

The W-L record of 14-37 is a stone cold fact.

Which of her statements do you disagree with?

McGovern was an overpay.  Giving 15M or whatever to get Ryan Khalil off the couch backfired.

Coughing up the ridiculous guarantees to CJU and Conk were stupid overpays, bidding against himself essentially.

Laken Tomlinson hasn't lived up to his money.

The Becton pick right now was objectively the wrong move.

 

none of those were trades, which i believe is the context that is needed.

did he make some bad draft picks (hard to say no) or pay some FAs more than they may have been worth (name a GM that doesn't do that)?  well sure.  they all do.

the context of this discussion on JD is how successful has he been in negotiating trades which is what is beeing discussed here in terms of negotiating a trade for rodgers.  and no, giving up a 6th rounder for james robinson hardly moves the needle to be considered a flop.

[batman10023]

10 hours ago, Beerfish said:

Get permission from the packers to talk to rodgers just as they did.

Impress on Rodgers that he is our #1 choice sell him on all the good things about the team and agree to at least look at the guys he wants to bring in here.  However impress on him that the time line is very short and and if we do not hear a yes by a certain date we are moving on. If Rodgers agrees to this you set the same deadline for the packers.  You want to trade him to the one and only team who is interested?  Traded by this date here is our initial offer.

If the date passes you immediately go after Carr (where there was a strong mutual interest) and just go down your list.

The jets said, take all the time you need to decide, other real options evaporated and here we are.

carr wasn't coming here in my opinion.  he always was going to NO.

time isn't short, what is the rush?

 

[nycdan]

3 minutes ago, JoeNamathsFurCoat said:

The W-L record of 14-37 is a stone cold fact.

Which of her statements do you disagree with?

McGovern was an overpay.  Giving 15M or whatever to get Ryan Khalil off the couch backfired.

Coughing up the ridiculous guarantees to CJU and Conk were stupid overpays, bidding against himself essentially.

Laken Tomlinson hasn't lived up to his money.

The Becton pick right now is objectively the wrong move.

For one thing, the injury impact.  Becton looked like a home run in his rookie season.  Then came the conditioning and injury issues which were not evident from his college career.  I'm not sure where to pin that but I'm not sure you lay that on Douglas for not anticipating it.  Same for Lawson.  He had a very good, injury-free season the year before the Jets signed him.  In TC he looked like an all-pro and we were all pumped.  Then an ACL which is not predictable.  

Most of the OL FA signings did not work out well.  You can absolutely pin that on Douglas, which is odd because that was supposed to be his sweet spot.  

As for McGovern and the TEs, you have to factor in what the market looked like.  What options were available?  Both were clearly positions of need.  The choice at Center was McGovern vs. Morse (who went to BUF).  Morse got a slightly higher deal.  And saying CMG was the 10th highest paid center while playing like the 16th to 20th ignores the fact that newly signed FAs are always paid higher than their value in their first year until the market catches up.  

Lots of fair notes, but lots of inconsistencies and overlooked factors.  Worth a read, but definitely needs a few grains of salt.

[nycdan]

1 minute ago, batman10023 said:

carr wasn't coming here in my opinion.  he always was going to NO.

time isn't short, what is the rush?

 

It's the Veruca Salt syndrome