Aaron Rodgers to the Jets rumor: Merged

[Jetsfan80]

33 minutes ago, ElBarrioJets said:

He's a Patriot by next Friday. 

100 %.  Exactly where he belongs.

[Mogglez]

21 minutes ago, Trotter said:

@Mogglez @football guy

are the moves the Jets just made in any way associated with good news for Rodgers?

The Chuck Clark trade might be the end for Whitehead, but we’ll see.  Cutting him would free up ~7 mil.

[prime21]

39 minutes ago, oatmeal said:

I would have restructured if it meant playing with Rodgers.

[Darnold Schwarzenegger]

2 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Like I said, I'm not here to beat you up about your opinions.  I just agree to disagree.

The risk is massive, the reward is middling IMO.  I think the league has him pretty well figured out now, hence the continual decline in production and the increase in injuries.

I wouldn't consider him under any circumstances at the current cost structure/cost to acquire.  I'd rather keep building via the draft and try again in 2024, or even (if I wanted a similar style of talent) reach for a Richardson in the 2023 draft and sit him a year or two, rather than pay that cost in picks and salary for Lamar Jackson.

But as I've said, I am entirely biased against run-first QB's.  I strongly prefer passers at QB, not glorified running backs in college-style offenses.  

I agree with you in that I’d rather have a more traditional passer. I’m not opposed to drafting and developing someone.  

Like I said I’m not even a big Lamar fan. But I would be hard pressed to name 10 qbs that are better than him. And he’s available for the taking so I think if your JD you have to atleast consider it.

[slimjasi]

16 minutes ago, Darnold Schwarzenegger said:

Yea I’d say the risk is worth the potential reward. I’m not sure the contract is crippling because that’s the going rate for qbs these days. Can you name me 10 qbs you would rather have over Lamar? I could name 6 or 7. (Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Herbert, Hurts, Tlaw) 

I think this is a fair list and even Tlaw has a lot to prove - people were calling him a disappointment halfway through this past season. He really came on strong late. 

[Jetsfan80]

11 minutes ago, Warfish said:

But as I've said, I am entirely biased against run-first QB's.  I strongly prefer passers at QB, not glorified running backs in college-style offenses.  

What if I told you that Lamar Jackson has a career 101/38 TD:INT ratio in the NFL?

[shuler82]

8 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

The Chuck Clark trade might be the end for Whitehead, but we’ll see.  Cutting him would free up ~7 mil.

You’d have to think.. they’re the same type of player, and Clark is probably better.  Still need a FS.

[Augustiniak]

1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

What if I told you that Lamar Jackson has a career 101/38 TD:INT ratio in the NFL?

Are the ravens a much smarter and successful organization than the jets?  

Yes.

if the ravens aren’t rushing to resign jackson that should give the jets major pause.

[Warfish]

Just now, Darnold Schwarzenegger said:

I agree with you in that I’d rather have a more traditional passer. I’m not opposed to drafting and developing someone.  

Like I said I’m not even a big Lamar fan. But I would be hard pressed to name 10 qbs that are better than him. And he’s available for the taking so I think if your JD you have to atleast consider it.

QB's I (personally) would rather have than Lamar Jackson at the cost to acquire/pay him (2x #1's, $230M guaranteed over 5 years):

1. Mahomes
2. Herbert
3. Burrow
4. Allen
5. Rodgers
6. Cousins
7. Hurts
8. Carr
9. Lawrence
10. Tua (same injury issue, admittedly, but a much MUCH better passer, or he'd be higher).
11. A 2023 Draft Pick Passing-first QB
12. 2023 Pick: Richardson (if I wanted to take a real risk).

Anything beyond that and it gets dicey fast, as the quality and consistency of passing QB's after this list gets meh at best, oldsters, injury risks, and plain old mediocre guys.

With that said, if I'm GM, I save my money, pass on Jackson, and sign Baker Mayfield and Gardner Minshew.  I think this Jets team wins more games with that combo that with Jackson, and at much less risk of catastrophic injury/multi-year crippling of the cap for a lost/insta-decline player like Jackson, if he pulls an RGIII (which I think is 100% a real possibility every single time he runs the ball). 

Is Mayfield "better" than Jackson?  Lol, no. 

But it's a question of cost vs. reward, Mayfield + Minshew + 2x retained #1 Picks + $200+ million saved to spend elsewhere IS, in my view, a superior way to build a team and win games rather than the roulette wheel of a player like Jackson.

[oatmeal]

[Warfish]

5 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

What if I told you that Lamar Jackson has a career 101/38 TD:INT ratio in the NFL?

I'd tell you those numbers don't tell the tale about the quality of Jacksons passing ability.

I'd tell you they are a reflection of the system he runs, and the power of his running skills (and what they opened up, especially early in his career) more than a sign he's a great, or even good, passing QB.

I think in his case the context matters.

[Beerfish]

40 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said:

Sweet vindication for me and @BornJetsFan1983

You mean him and you.  Always trying for top billing, you'd think you were an actor or sumpin.

[oatmeal]

The sad truth 

 

 

[slimjasi]

17 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

What if I told you that Lamar Jackson has a career 101/38 TD:INT ratio in the NFL?

Bingo.
 

Also, I have an issue with the term “run first QB” that folks love to throw out there. It’s silly. Lamar Jackson had 112 rushing attempts last year but had 336 pass attempts. So, he’s not run first (not by a long shot), he’s run heavy. I consider that an important distinction. 
 

Now, he still runs a lot for a QB and you would like to see him curb those rushing attempts as he ages, but that is supposedly what HE wants to do, anyway. 
 

Meanwhile, this “run first QB” we are nitpicking was 9th in the league in QBR last year - ahead of Burrow, Herbert, Brady, Rodgers, and TLaw, among others.

The biggest issue with Jackson for me is durability, but the numbers suggest he’s actually a very good passer. 

[BeaconJet]

There will be a day when the Braxton Berrioses arent on this team.  Apparently that day is next week.

[Augustiniak]

1 minute ago, slimjasi said:

Bingo.
 

Also, I have an issue with the term “run first QB” that folks love to throw out there. It’s silly. Lamar Jackson had 112 rushing attempts last year but had 336 pass attempts. So, he’s not run first (not by a long shot), he’s run heavy. I consider that an important distinction. 
 

Now, he still runs a lot for a QB and you would like to see him curb those rushing attempts as he ages, but that is supposedly what HE wants. 
 

Meanwhile, this “run first QB” we are nitpicking was 9th in the league in QBR last year - ahead of Burrow, Herbert, Brady, Rodgers, and TLaw, among others.

The biggest issue with Jackson for me is durability, but the numbers suggest he’s actually a very good passer. 

Here’s the question with LJ.  As he ages, gets hurt more and is forced to be more of a pocket passer than a hybrid rb/qb, does the td/int ratio change?  In other words, is his running ability such a threat that it opens up the passing lanes more, and if he’s running less, is he a less effective passer?

[jetblue95]

18 minutes ago, Darnold Schwarzenegger said:

 

Like I said I’m not even a big Lamar fan. But I would be hard pressed to name 10 qbs that are better than him. And he’s available for the taking so I think if your JD you have to atleast consider it.

 

he's not available for the taking

he's available at an enormous cost in terms of guaranteed contract/cap space and two 1st round picks

[slimjasi]

5 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

Here’s the question with LJ.  As he ages, gets hurt more and is forced to be more of a pocket passer than a hybrid rb/qb, does the td/int ratio change?  In other words, is his running ability such a threat that it opens up the passing lanes more, and if he’s running less, is he a less effective passer?

Good question - I don't know. All I can say is that, watching him play, I've always thought he was a better passer than he gets credit for and the numbers seem to back that up. 

The other thing is, even if you gave him a 4 year deal today, he'd only be 30 at the end of it. Are we saying he's going to be an ineffective runner at 28? I just think people have preconceived notions about Lamar that aren't very accurate. 

[jetblue95]

20 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

What if I told you that Lamar Jackson has a career 101/38 TD:INT ratio in the NFL?

 

what if i told you it was 59/29 over the last 3 years and that obviously doesn't count the 12 games he missed with injury the last 2 years

[Augustiniak]

Just now, slimjasi said:

Good question - I don't know. All I can say is that, watching him play, I've always thought he was a better passer than he gets credit for and the numbers seem to back that up. 

The other thing is, even if you gave him a 4 year deal today, he'd only be 30 at the end of it. Are we saying he's going to be an ineffective runner at 28? I just think people have preconceived notions about Lamar that aren't very accurate. 

The problem is the draft pick compensation and the contract combined to trade for him.  And the ravens already have him, so they don’t have to give up picks to sign him.  

The ravens are dangling him out there, either to see if a team like Atlanta completely overpays them, or to show their qb that his market value is not what he thought it was.  Could simply be a negotiating tactic.

[slimjasi]

4 minutes ago, jetblue95 said:

 

what if i told you it was 59/29 other the last 3 years and that obviously doesn't count the 12 games he missed with injury the last 2 years

59/29 is still over 2. He had 17 TDs and 7 picks last year in only 12 games. Daniel Jones just got 40 mill after "breaking out" with 15 TDs and 5 picks for the entire year. 

[slats]

6 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Meanwhile, this “run first QB” we are nitpicking was 9th in the league in QBR last year - ahead of Burrow, Herbert, Brady, Rodgers, and TLaw, among others.

Rushing and scrambling numbers are part of the QBR formula. Guys like Allen, Hurts, Jones and Jackson all benefit from that. Personally, I’ve never been a fan of the stat. I think it’s too convoluted. 

[slimjasi]

7 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

The problem is the draft pick compensation and the contract combined to trade for him.  And the ravens already have him, so they don’t have to give up picks to sign him.  

The ravens are dangling him out there, either to see if a team like Atlanta completely overpays them, or to show their qb that his market value is not what he thought it was.  Could simply be a negotiating tactic.

Agreed about the picks and that's why Douglas would probably never seriously consider it. Although, I have to admit, I certainly would. 

It's all moot anyway. It's not happening. 

[Jetsfan80]

6 minutes ago, jetblue95 said:

 

what if i told you it was 59/29 over the last 3 years and that obviously doesn't count the 12 games he missed with injury the last 2 years

What if I told you that 59/29 is still a good TD:INT ratio for a dual threat QB who also added 12 rushing TDs in that span?

[Gastineau Lives]

17 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

You mean him and you.  Always trying for top billing, you'd think you were an actor or sumpin.

Well I wasn’t really sure I mean I think he did once mention something about Berrios too

[slimjasi]

5 minutes ago, slats said:

Rushing and scrambling numbers are part of the QBR formula. Guys like Allen, Hurts, Jones and Jackson all benefit from that. Personally, I’ve never been a fan of the stat. I think it’s too convoluted. 

Of course, because rushing production helps your team score touchdowns. I'm not sure how QBR could not factor in rushing production. 

BUT, even if you want to ignore his rushing entirely - his career passer rating is 96.7 and he averages 7.4 yards/attempt. (never make the mistake of looking at total passing yards, which are meaningless). He's a better passer than you guys think. 

 

[Jetsfan80]

4 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Of course, because rushing production helps your team score touchdowns. I'm not sure how QBR could not factor in rushing production. 

QBR was created in large part to start incorporating the many QBs who can run.  Traditional QB Rating, of course, does not factor rushing in at all.

[jetblue95]

5 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

What if I told you that 59/29 is still a good TD:INT ratio for a dual threat QB who also added 12 rushing TDs in that span?

i don't think a 2:1 TD/Int is particularly good, dual threat or no dual threat QB

and what if i told you over the last 2 years (when not hurt) he had 33 TDs to 20 Ints (with 5 rushing TDs)

and for this, he wants a fully guaranteed contract more than watson and you need to give up two 1st rounders

[slimjasi]

3 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

QBR was created in large part to start incorporating the many QBs who can run.  Traditional QB Rating, of course, does not factor rushing in at all.

Exactly. And Lamar has a good traditional passer rating and a good QBR, regardless. 

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, jetblue95 said:

i don't think a 2:1 TD/Int is particularly good, dual threat or no dual threat QB

and what if i told you over the last 2 years (when not hurt) he had 33 TDs to 20 Ints (with 5 rushing TDs)

and for this, he wants a fully guaranteed contract more than watson and you need to give up two 1st rounders

I'd say those numbers are still good and I'd offer him a deal that doesn't involve a fully guaranteed contract because no one else is going to offer him that?

Think about what you're saying here:  He accounted for 38 TDs over the last 2 seasons despite missing some games.  Even when he was supposedly bad.

[jetblue95]

10 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

59/29 is still over 2. He had 17 TDs and 7 picks last year in only 12 games. Daniel Jones just got 40 mill after "breaking out" with 15 TDs and 5 picks for the entire year. 

 

daniel jones contract is silly, although it is not really $40 million per and it's not fully guaranteed

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Exactly. And Lamar has a good traditional passer rating and a good QBR, regardless. 

Yep.

I recall Fitzpatrick having a terrific QBR (but only a middle QB Rating) in 2015 because he ran for a ton of 1st downs that season.  The "toss it up to Marshall/Decker or run" strategy worked well for him most of that year.

[Adoni Beast]

[slimjasi]

5 minutes ago, jetblue95 said:

 

daniel jones contract is silly, although it is not really $40 million per and it's not fully guaranteed

Agree about Jones.

 

Regardless, I think Lamar is a better passer and QB than you do, but I think the 2 first round picks take him off the table for the Jets. 

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, Adoni Beast said:

 

I've been mailing @Gastineau Lives # 33 Seahawks jerseys with the word "Depression" on the back every year for the last 3 years.