Jason@OTC: Brilliant Breakdown of Trade Implications From GB & Jets Perspective

[sciond]

1 minute ago, 32EBoozer said:

of course but we AR does not bring a guaranteed win.

The risk is so severe and the cost to the future could be catastrophic.

I have been waiting over 50 years and just when it seems like we are turning a corner this would be a SOJ move. The kind Dolan has often made for the Knicks....

[slats]

7 minutes ago, sciond said:

Look at what the cap costs will do to the ability to build the team the right way..

it's as plain as day....

Anyone who cannot see it is only focused on the shiny object.

Did you watch the video? Cap charge for the Jets this year would be $15M this year, $30M next year (roughly), then two more years of $30M in dead money. It’s a lot, not saying it isn’t, but it’s not unmanageable. In fact, it leaves plenty of room to build around him for two years before having to clean up after him when he’s gone. 

[slats]

The tl;dr version is simple, the Packers have to get that contract off of their books and the only way to do that is to trade him before that next bonus gets exercised. 
 
The Jets are the only team currently willing to both give them anything and eat $110M (maybe negotiated down some) for (hopefully) two years of service, spread out over four years. It’s a big ask. Basically, Woody is desperate enough. 
 
Without another team involved, the Packers have no leverage because they absolutely have to trade him to someone, and the Jets are the only game in town. Joe Douglas can not only hold firm, but even lower his offer, as long as it’s not so low that another team decides Rodgers is worth that. 
 
I’m not sure what the Packers are playing at here, they may be using the time until they have exercise that bonus to try to to get another suitor involved. That’s always been their best case scenario. I still don’t see it going beyond this year’s draft.

[32EBoozer]

51 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said:

Couple of things that I’ve been wondering/thinking for the last few days. Fair warning - I haven’t really read any of the other threads and haven’t had a chance to watch Jason’s breakdown yet (I’m an excel geek myself - best business invention ever, so I’m excited).

1) If GB doesn’t trade him, they’re left with him either retiring (kills their cap the next few years), or screwing up any chance of them determining their future with Jordan Love. Love’s fifth year option needs to be exercised by May 1st, and Rodgers can tell GB that if they don’t trade him before May 31st, he is going to retire and cripple GB’s cap. I don’t see any scenario where GB keeps him past May 31st.

2) If GB wants draft picks this year, they’ll need to trade prior to the draft, which also introduces an additional time constraint. I haven’t thought this through yet, but I believe it would be in GB’s best interest to trade now so that they can get a pick this year and also get a pick with an escalator next year. In fact, in this scenario, I actually think the Jets have leverage to wait till after the draft. The training programs and voluntary workouts don’t start till the summer, and he’s already intimately familiar with Hackett’s system, so I don’t think it would be a detriment to him or the other guys on offense to wait another 1.5 months.

3) Given all of the above and the fact that the Raiders are officially out on Rodgers, GB has no ability to play any other team against Joe Douglass. Add to that the fact that Rodgers publicly announced his desire to play for us, I don’t see where GB’s leverage is.

I believe that best case scenario for the Jets is to get it done between the draft and May 31st. Realistically though, I think it gets done before the draft, because GB wants draft picks, wants to take a look at Jordan Love, and needs that cap space to be able to maneuver through FA and draft signing period.

So, can someone explain to me why I keep reading or seeing everyone talk about how GB had all the time in the world to wait, and that they hold all the cards? Do I have wrong info above? 

All great points. Pessimism runs deep in the SOJ Quantum Realm

[sciond]

Just now, slats said:

Did you watch the video? Cap charge for the Jets this year would be $15M this year, $30M next year (roughly), then two more years of $30M in dead money. It’s a lot, not saying it isn’t, but it’s not unmanageable. In fact, it leaves plenty of room to build around him for two years before having to clean up after him when he’s gone. 

I did, did you?

It is actually a bit more than that 

Additionally what if he plays one year only?

Ever hear of playing the long game?

[batman10023]

2 hours ago, 32EBoozer said:

I wish I could manipulate Excel spreadsheets the way he does. 10 minutes long but WOW! This proves beyond a doubt that Jets have the most leverage.

The summary:

GB in a world of hurt if he isn’t traded this year, especially with the AR bridge ? burned behind them. Cap implications crippling.

Jets will be holding a lot of Dead Cap space in those ‘25 & ‘26 void years. JD/Woody better hope Salary Cap keeps going up. 
 

https://overthecap.com/explaining-the-salary-cap-implications-of-trading-aaron-rodgers

are you joking about the "manipulating Excel spreadsheets the way he does"?

this isn't even basic excel work.

his cap work is amazing.

[32EBoozer]

Just now, batman10023 said:

are you joking about the "manipulating Excel spreadsheets the way he does"?

this isn't even basic excel work.

his cap work is amazing.

Shows you how Microsoft Office deficient I truly am! ?‍?

[greenwichjetfan]

56 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said:

Couple of things that I’ve been wondering/thinking for the last few days. Fair warning - I haven’t really read any of the other threads and haven’t had a chance to watch Jason’s breakdown yet (I’m an excel geek myself - best business invention ever, so I’m excited).

1) If GB doesn’t trade him, they’re left with him either retiring (kills their cap the next few years), or screwing up any chance of them determining their future with Jordan Love. Love’s fifth year option needs to be exercised by May 1st, and Rodgers can tell GB that if they don’t trade him before May 31st, he is going to retire and cripple GB’s cap. I don’t see any scenario where GB keeps him past May 31st.

2) If GB wants draft picks this year, they’ll need to trade prior to the draft, which also introduces an additional time constraint. I haven’t thought this through yet, but I believe it would be in GB’s best interest to trade now so that they can get a pick this year and also get a pick with an escalator next year. In fact, in this scenario, I actually think the Jets have leverage to wait till after the draft. The training programs and voluntary workouts don’t start till the summer, and he’s already intimately familiar with Hackett’s system, so I don’t think it would be a detriment to him or the other guys on offense to wait another 1.5 months.

3) Given all of the above and the fact that the Raiders are officially out on Rodgers, GB has no ability to play any other team against Joe Douglass. Add to that the fact that Rodgers publicly announced his desire to play for us, I don’t see where GB’s leverage is.

I believe that best case scenario for the Jets is to get it done between the draft and May 31st. Realistically though, I think it gets done before the draft, because GB wants draft picks, wants to take a look at Jordan Love, and needs that cap space to be able to maneuver through FA and draft signing period.

So, can someone explain to me why I keep reading or seeing everyone talk about how GB had all the time in the world to wait, and that they hold all the cards? Do I have wrong info above? 

 

4 minutes ago, slats said:

The tl;dr version is simple, the Packers have to get that contract off of their books and the only way to do that is to trade him before that next bonus gets exercised. 
 
The Jets are the only team currently willing to both give them anything and eat $110M (maybe negotiated down some) for (hopefully) two years of service, spread out over four years. It’s a big ask. Basically, Woody is desperate enough. 
 
Without another team involved, the Packers have no leverage because they absolutely have to trade him to someone, and the Jets are the only game in town. Joe Douglas can not only hold firm, but even lower his offer, as long as it’s not so low that another team decides Rodgers is worth that. 
 
I’m not sure what the Packers are playing at here, they may be using the time until they have exercise that bonus to try to to get another suitor involved. That’s always been their best case scenario. I still don’t see it going beyond this year’s draft.

[batman10023]

4 minutes ago, slats said:

The tl;dr version is simple, the Packers have to get that contract off of their books and the only way to do that is to trade him before that next bonus gets exercised. 
 
The Jets are the only team currently willing to both give them anything and eat $110M (maybe negotiated down some) for (hopefully) two years of service, spread out over four years. It’s a big ask. Basically, Woody is desperate enough. 
 
Without another team involved, the Packers have no leverage because they absolutely have to trade him to someone, and the Jets are the only game in town. Joe Douglas can not only hold firm, but even lower his offer, as long as it’s not so low that another team decides Rodgers is worth that. 
 
I’m not sure what the Packers are playing at here, they may be using the time until they have exercise that bonus to try to to get another suitor involved. That’s always been their best case scenario. I still don’t see it going beyond this year’s draft.

they have to find another team AND rodgers has to want to play for them

[NYJCAP2]

6 minutes ago, batman10023 said:

are you joking about the "manipulating Excel spreadsheets the way he does"?

this isn't even basic excel work.

his cap work is amazing.

I agree, but I honestly don’t think this scratches the surface of what Jason can do in Excel, given what he’s built.?

[section314]

9 minutes ago, slats said:

Did you watch the video? Cap charge for the Jets this year would be $15M this year, $30M next year (roughly), then two more years of $30M in dead money. It’s a lot, not saying it isn’t, but it’s not unmanageable. In fact, it leaves plenty of room to build around him for two years before having to clean up after him when he’s gone. 

Obviously these numbers are based only on the current salary cap. As it usually increases as so many have said, it makes this deal somewhat more palatable. Packers obviously know that as well, hence digging in.

[bitonti]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

If he sticks around thru 2026 he'll be guaranteed the chance to face the Packers in the regular season.  Just sayin'.

Rodgers is declining now I can't imagine how bad he will be by 2026

[NYJCAP2]

12 minutes ago, slats said:

Did you watch the video? Cap charge for the Jets this year would be $15M this year, $30M next year (roughly), then two more years of $30M in dead money. It’s a lot, not saying it isn’t, but it’s not unmanageable. In fact, it leaves plenty of room to build around him for two years before having to clean up after him when he’s gone. 

Agree.  It’s a good paced video for everyone here to watch and understand, but if you don’t have the time, this pretty much summarized it. Whether he retires after 1 year or 2 you’re looking at $30M dead cap hits each year post retirement to account for the cash paid up front.

[32EBoozer]

17 minutes ago, slats said:

The tl;dr version is simple, the Packers have to get that contract off of their books and the only way to do that is to trade him before that next bonus gets exercised. 
 
The Jets are the only team currently willing to both give them anything and eat $110M (maybe negotiated down some) for (hopefully) two years of service, spread out over four years. It’s a big ask. Basically, Woody is desperate enough. 
 
Without another team involved, the Packers have no leverage because they absolutely have to trade him to someone, and the Jets are the only game in town. Joe Douglas can not only hold firm, but even lower his offer, as long as it’s not so low that another team decides Rodgers is worth that. 
 
I’m not sure what the Packers are playing at here, they may be using the time until they have exercise that bonus to try to to get another suitor involved. That’s always been their best case scenario. I still don’t see it going beyond this year’s draft.

You stated the facts much more eloquently than I. ?

[32EBoozer]

17 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Rodgers is declining now I can't imagine how bad he will be by 2026

After back to back MVP Seasons, AR plays with Broken thumb on throwing hand; guts it out for the team; gets trashed for being washed up. ?

[bitonti]

Just now, 32EBoozer said:

After back to back MVP Seasons, AR plays with Broken thumb on throwing hand; guts it out for the team; gets trashed for being washed up. ?

People bring up the broken thumb like it's a good thing 

He's old and getting older. This is a decline not just a broken thumb 

He could very well get hurt again, it's not like the Jets line is any good 

[peekskill68]

24 minutes ago, slats said:

The tl;dr version is simple, the Packers have to get that contract off of their books and the only way to do that is to trade him before that next bonus gets exercised. 
 
The Jets are the only team currently willing to both give them anything and eat $110M (maybe negotiated down some) for (hopefully) two years of service, spread out over four years. It’s a big ask. Basically, Woody is desperate enough. 
 
Without another team involved, the Packers have no leverage because they absolutely have to trade him to someone, and the Jets are the only game in town. Joe Douglas can not only hold firm, but even lower his offer, as long as it’s not so low that another team decides Rodgers is worth that. 
 
I’m not sure what the Packers are playing at here, they may be using the time until they have exercise that bonus to try to to get another suitor involved. That’s always been their best case scenario. I still don’t see it going beyond this year’s draft.

I'll go a step further.  Too much focus is being made on the contract math and the trade compensation, and not nearly enough is being made on the public relations mess GB is moving into the longer this drags out.  You have a 1st ballot HOF star who has publicly expressed his desire to go to the Jets, and who you clearly want to move on from.  And now you are holding things up because you don't like the Jets offer?  Not saying GB isn't within their rights to delay things, but they should be prepared to start taking heat from the fans, social media, etc. because Rodgers is going to start being portrayed as a hostage.  

[Darnold's Forehead]

32 minutes ago, sciond said:

I did, did you?

It is actually a bit more than that 

Additionally what if he plays one year only?

Ever hear of playing the long game?

Play the long game? LOL

Enjoy waiting another 50 years.

[CanadaSteve]

26 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Rodgers is declining now I can't imagine how bad he will be by 2026

If by declining you mean he would be the best QB the Jets have had since Joe Namath, then yes.

 

[IndianaJet]

So if I get this right, long story short is we better win the superbowl in the next 2 years...cause after that we are screwed.

[bitonti]

2 minutes ago, CanadaSteve said:

If by declining you mean he would be the best QB the Jets have had since Joe Namath, then yes.

 

It's a low bar 

He'd also be the most expensive player in franchise history 

The juice is not worth the squeeze 

[sciond]

10 minutes ago, Darnold's Forehead said:

Play the long game? LOL

Enjoy waiting another 50 years.

Exactly that is why you don't sell your soul for AR.....nobody want to start all over again

You got your Magic 8 Ball fired up? As you can see the future....

Because that is some expert analysis that the only way to build a team is to get AR and blow up the draft and salary structure.....

If we don't the team will be bad for 50 years...LMFAO

Getting AR must a secret sauce to team building......

See anyone else trying to jump the line????????...

....I'll wait...

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

25 minutes ago, bitonti said:

People bring up the broken thumb like it's a good thing 

He's old and getting older. This is a decline not just a broken thumb 

He could very well get hurt again, it's not like the Jets line is any good 

I’m sure some said the same thing after his 2019 season, when he completed only 62% of his passes and threw for 26 TDs to 4 INTs— with Davante Adams.

This past last year, he completed just shy of 65% and threw for 26 TDs to 12 INTs (1) without Davante Adams and (2) with a broken thumb & hurt ribs.  I’m sure you’ll concede that the latter 2 points would brings his stats down some.  Most reasonable (independent minded) people would.

Then came 2020 when he lit it up. 
48 TDs, 5 INTs, MVP, NFC Championship game, led the top scoring offense (31 ppg).

Thats a fluke, right?  Another MVP the following year.

I’ll take my chances we can make a deep run with a highly motivated Aaron Rodgers.  As long as we don’t give up a first (short of SB) and we negotiate down the total cap hit between $10-20M to bring him closer to $45-$50M per year.

[Augustiniak]

2 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

I’m sure some said the same thing after his 2019 season, when he completed only 62% of his passes and threw for 26 TDs to 4 INTs— with Davante Adams.

This past last year, he completed just shy of 65% and threw for 26 TDs to 12 INTs (1) without Davante Adams and (2) with a broken thumb & hurt ribs.  I’m sure you’ll concede that the latter 2 points would brings his stats down some.  Most reasonable (independent minded) people would.

Then came 2020 when he lit it up. 
48 TDs, 5 INTs, MVP, NFC Championship game, led the top scoring offense (31 ppg).

Thats a fluke, right?  Another MVP the following year.

I’ll take my chances we can make a deep run with a highly motivated Aaron Rodgers.  As long as we don’t give up a first (short of SB) and we negotiate down the total cap hit between $10-20M to bring him closer to $45-$50M per year.

If AR is merely a decent game manager the jets should make the playoffs.  If he’s pretty good, the jets contend for the division.  If AR gives the jets 2 or 3 good years, well worth the trade. 

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

24 minutes ago, Darnold's Forehead said:

Play the long game? LOL

Enjoy waiting another 50 years.

Hey, I might still be alive at 98 years old.

Already preparing my celebration dance.

[neckdemon]

3 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

This can go as far as the draft but will not go any further.  May end up being a draft day trade, but it actually hurts GB if they wait any longer than the draft - and adds no additional leverage.

So sit back as it might take another 6 weeks, but won't any longer.

could but i'd think you want to know what your draft pick status is before you are under pressure and on the clock after a draft day trade

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

1 minute ago, Augustiniak said:

If AR is merely a decent game manager the jets should make the playoffs.  If he’s pretty good, the jets contend for the division.  If AR gives the jets 2 or 3 good years, well worth the trade. 

You gotta take shots in life when the opportunity is there.

I remember my mom (bless her) telling me I should stay with my stable corporate job instead of starting my own business because of the risk of failure.  It’s definitely not for the weak hearted but I am so glad I did NOT listen.

‘Tis better to have tried and lost than never to have tried at all’.

This is our shot!!  We take it.

[C Mart]

1 hour ago, sciond said:

Look at what the cap costs will do to the ability to build the team the right way..

it's as plain as day....

Anyone who cannot see it is only focused on the shiny object.

I am focused on shiny objects. We HAVENT had any in a long time. 

And the Saints have been cap hell for years but always find ways to do things. 

[C Mart]

1 hour ago, sciond said:

I did, did you?

It is actually a bit more than that 

Additionally what if he plays one year only?

Ever hear of playing the long game?

Yeah we’ve been playing it for decades. 

[C Mart]

1 hour ago, NYJCAP2 said:

Agree.  It’s a good paced video for everyone here to watch and understand, but if you don’t have the time, this pretty much summarized it. Whether he retires after 1 year or 2 you’re looking at $30M dead cap hits each year post retirement to account for the cash paid up front.

With the cap going up each yr especially with all the new tv/streaming deals

[bitonti]

36 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

This past last year, he completed just shy of 65% and threw for 26 TDs to 12 INTs (1) without Davante Adams and (2) with a broken thumb & hurt ribs.  I’m sure you’ll concede that the latter 2 points would brings his stats down some.  Most reasonable (independent minded) people would.

Yes the injuries bring down the stats for sure 

I'm concerned he gets hurt again though 

That's what happens to older players 

 

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

Just now, bitonti said:

Yes the injuries bring down the stats for sure 

I'm concerned he gets hurt again though 

That's what happens to older players 

 

Our young QBs haven’t started & completed a season in 7 years.

 

[Jetsfan80]

7 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Yes the injuries bring down the stats for sure 

I'm concerned he gets hurt again though 

That's what happens to older players 

 

Didn’t you want Jimmy G?

[sciond]

43 minutes ago, C Mart said:

I am focused on shiny objects. We HAVENT had any in a long time. 

And the Saints have been cap hell for years but always find ways to do things. 

They had a great QB

They are smarter they got Carr for nothing....

[sciond]

40 minutes ago, C Mart said:

Yeah we’ve been playing it for decades. 

still the best option