Aaron Rodgers Contract

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

1 minute ago, bitonti said:

To clarify its 20 percent of the cap when he retires 

That's 20 percent for a player who certainly won't play 

It's a lot, there is no getting around that.  The bad thing is it does come at a time when others are going to want to get paid, as @Beerfish mentioned.

Maybe the smart thing to do this year is to draft & develop a young QB who can take over post Rodgers.  But the Jets almost never do the smart thing.

[Biggs]

2 hours ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

 

I didn’t say good, it just isn’t anywhere near the others and won’t be the franchise killer that some have portrayed it to be.

 

 

Rodgers is an injury or a year of play below his standard of 3 years ago from being sunk cost.  

[Warfish]

4 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

Maybe the smart thing to do this year is to draft & develop a young QB who can take over post Rodgers.  But the Jets almost never do the smart thing.

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

5 minutes ago, varjet said:

• AR8 was owed $50mm to play for the Packers in 2023.   That was what an MVP the prior year gets.   The Packers did not want to pay it.  They were able to trade him to the Jets.
• The Jets got AR8 to agree to play for $75mm for two years.  So, less per year, but more years.  AR8 banked another $25mm-so he only sort of gave the Jets a pay cut.
• For a great QB, $37.5mm/year is not terrible in 2023/24.   But he needs to be great.  
• The Jets/Woody should not be throwing around $35mm-that is what they owe him to play in 2025.  He needs to be very good in 2024 to get $35mm for 2025.
• But regardless of whether the Jets are getting a good deal or not on AR8, its a bad deal if he is too old to be healthy to play, and the Jets clearly pushed his cost into future years so they can sign players to play with him now.  That plan did not work in 2023, it may not work in 2024, and after that, the bill that becomes due will prevent the Jets from being good for awhile after AR8 leaves. 

Lots of good thoughts.  Yes, Rodgers needs to stay healthy and be great this year for this to turn into a positive.  There is no getting around that.  

My question for you is what QB could they have signed and how could they have structured it if they didn't go after Rodgers, recognizing some of their cap limitations?  Remember the Jets didn't know the cap was going up $30M this year and entered this offseason without a lot of cap space?

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

24 minutes ago, Warfish said:

We're not curing cancer here, sadly.

We kind of are trying to cure cancer on this board.  Its name is Woody Johnson.

 

--------------------------------------

Morphing into dad 97.672% complete

[UntouchableCrew]

1 hour ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

My starting point is that $37.5M per year over 2 or 3 years for Aaron Rodgers is not overpaid.

Most people on here not named @Beerfish @FidelioJet @dbatesman @bitonti were very happy with this restructured contract last year, after he gave back $35M.

So the market total pay was more than fair for an Aaron Rodgers as was the trade value since we learned after the fact that Rodgers planned to play for more than 1 year and possibly 3 or even more (his words).

But the failure on a number of previous draft picks & free agents made Rodger's deal structure a necessity.  It's not like they went out and signed all these high priced free agents last year.  Even now, the Jets are NOT oozing all this cap space.  Meaning that any credible veteran QB they got last year (which most of wanted), including Carr, Jimmy G, Lamar Jackson would have required a back-loaded deal.   We can all do the math together!  

A lot of the revisionists (not you or those mentioned above) are now up in arms over the Aaron Rodger's deal.  Saying we mortgaged the future.  Who?  Allen Lazard who we can cut after this year with a neglibible dead cap hit.  All the other Rodgers loafs who are no longer on the team and don't carry any dead cap hit.

The Jets missing on Zach Wilson, Mekhi Becton, Duane Brown, Laken Tomlinson, CJ Uzomah, not cutting Carl Lawson sooner and not requesting a pay cut from CJ Mosley put the Jets in this situation.  They pivoted to Aaron Rodgers and needed to backload a fair market deal to fit him under the cap.   

Yet so many here who wanted Rodgers are now shocked at the type of contract struture it took to get him.. 

Yeah, I mean, it's not some insane albatross. I get the basic point you're making.

I just think the short term paycut/restructuring leading to large cap hits in years where Rodgers will likely be retired and we'll be hiring a new HC and GM is looking pretty bad right now.

I was fine with the Rodgers move when he made it. The team in 2022 had the look of a "win now" team with a great defense being held back but horrible QB play. The problem is that 1) acquiring Rodgers involved a series of other bad moves involving his friends and family literally all of which have flopped and hurt the team and 2) he tore his Achilles at age 39 four plays into the season.

A combination of bad luck and bad process derailed it, and while it's not a "Deshaun Watson deal" I'm not thrilled we have huge dead cap numbers in 2025 and 2026 for the next regime to overcome.

[varjet]

32 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

My question for you is what QB could they have signed and how could they have structured it if they didn't go after Rodgers, recognizing some of their cap limitations?  

For the Jets Derek Carr was the logical bridge QB.  No draft pick compensation. We would have Broderick Jones and a 2nd round pick this year.  The Carr contract was basically 3 years, $100mm.  So we average a little less than Rodgers.  

If Carr plays 8+ games for the Jets last year, we may have made the playoffs.  No Hackett and Rodgers cronies.  

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

10 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Yeah, I mean, it's not some insane albatross. I get the basic point you're making.

I just think the short term paycut/restructuring leading to large cap hits in years where Rodgers will likely be retired and we'll be hiring a new HC and GM is looking pretty bad right now.

I was fine with the Rodgers move when he made it. The team in 2022 had the look of a "win now" team with a great defense being held back but horrible QB play. The problem is that 1) acquiring Rodgers involved a series of other bad moves involving his friends and family literally all of which have flopped and hurt the team and 2) he tore his Achilles at age 39 four plays into the season.

A combination of bad luck and bad process derailed it, and while it's not a "Deshaun Watson deal" I'm not thrilled we have huge dead cap numbers in 2025 and 2026 for the next regime to overcome.

All very fair points.

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

1 minute ago, varjet said:

For the Jets Derek Carr was the logical bridge QB.  No draft pick compensation. We would have Broderick Jones and a 2nd round pick this year.  The Carr contract was basically 3 years, $100mm.  So we average a little less than Rodgers.  

I thought he was a realistic option too..

But would a lot of the $100M have been backloaded given the Jets salary cap situation?

[bitonti]

14 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

I was fine with the Rodgers move when he made it.

Not to go back in time and refight the wars of last offseason but Rodgers was declining on 2022 film. The holding of the ball, being gunshy, it's all on that tape 

People's excuses were "oh he was hurt" 

just breezing by the elephant in the room that yes old players get hurt more 

He was going into his 19th nfl season. Now it's his 20th. His price is exorbitant. At the time he cost a first and a second round pick. 

It was a poor move at the time. Everything is easier in hindsight but we don't need hindsight to judge this move. 

It was poorly planned poorly executed and any number of moves (Carr, baker, Jimmy G even) would have been better outcomes 

The fatal flaw was playing semantics like he was mvp 2 of the last 4 years, as if time moves in both directions

 

[Augustiniak]

5 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Not to go back in time and refight the wars of last offseason but Rodgers was declining on 2022 film. The holding of the ball, being gunshy, it's all on that tape 

People's excuses were "oh he was hurt" 

just breezing by the elephant in the room that yes old players get hurt more 

He was going into his 19th nfl season. Now it's his 20th. His price is exorbitant. At the time he cost a first and a second round pick. 

It was a poor move at the time. Everything is easier in hindsight but we don't need hindsight to judge this move. 

It was poorly planned poorly executed and any number of moves (Carr, baker, Jimmy G even) would have been better outcomes 

The fatal flaw was playing semantics like he was mvp 2 of the last 4 years, as if time moves in both directions

 

The fatal flaw was jd believing that he was only a qb away from contending.  At the time of the trade the d was good not amazing.  The OL was as always a work in progress.  Becton was a big ?.  They had 1 real wr and they blindly thought rodgers would solve all the roster shortcomings as well as compensate for an inferior offensive coaching staff.  Rodgers can win here but they put it all on him.  He became gm, oc and chief recruitment officer and while it sated his ego it undermined the football operations.  Now rodgers is probably contemplating how many more seasons he wants to get roughed up behind this line and when he can star on dancing with the stars. 

[Larz]

I’m kinda just grateful he’s trying so hard to get back.  If we get 2 good from now out of him it will be worth it 

[UntouchableCrew]

4 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Not to go back in time and refight the wars of last offseason but Rodgers was declining on 2022 film. The holding of the ball, being gunshy, it's all on that tape 

People's excuses were "oh he was hurt" 

just breezing by the elephant in the room that yes old players get hurt more 

He was going into his 19th nfl season. Now it's his 20th. His price is exorbitant. At the time he cost a first and a second round pick. 

It was a poor move at the time. Everything is easier in hindsight but we don't need hindsight to judge this move. 

It was poorly planned poorly executed and any number of moves (Carr, baker, Jimmy G even) would have been better outcomes 

The fatal flaw was playing semantics like he was mvp 2 of the last 4 years, as if time moves in both directions

 

It was a calculated risk. I think it's obvious there was a possibility it would fail and a possibility it would succeed. Where you'd place those probabilities probably defines how you felt about the deal at the time.

I think the continued success of Brady (and Lebron James, etc.) have led people to rethink the timeline on pro athletes. Rodgers, relatively speaking, doesn't seem physically diminished to me the way I've seen with some aging QBs (like Peyton who clearly fell of a cliff as 2014 progressed) but you're not wrong that father time is undefeated and at this time any optimism I have about Rodgers going forward is dramatically diminished. I agree with @slimjasi and others who literally thought he looked uncomfortable and gunshy in the four snaps he took for us on MNF last year.

But if you're Joe Douglas and you whiffed on the 2nd overall pick -- but the rest of your team seems like it has "breakout" ability and is winning games despite horrific QB play... What's your other move?

Clearly drafting a new QB wasn't in the cards. They needed a veteran option. Is trading for 39 year old Aaron Rodgers really worse than signing Derek Carr to a huge contract?

I respect the big swing. Whether our batting average was .150 or .400 when we got up to bat (depending on your optimism about Rodgers ability to play at a high level) I understand the move and at the point in time where Douglas made the decision I'm not sure I buy the idea that there were better options.

The biggest thing that I think is easy to criticize was bending over backwards to acquiesce the guy. Every single coaching or personnel move we made to show him we were all in on him was a disaster and one of the reasons we're in such bad shape right now.

[Pac]

He just said last night he wants to play 2 to 4 more years.  We'll have him on a bargain for a few years.  This is cause for celebration. 

The Revenge Tour can't come soon enough. 

[Jets and Redskins]

We probably have two more years of Rodgers.

[Augustiniak]

3 minutes ago, Pac said:

He just said last night he wants to play 2 to 4 more years.  We'll have him on a bargain for a few years.  This is cause for celebration. 

The Revenge Tour can't come soon enough. 

He can say whatever he wants but he’s got to stay healthy.  And he’s not getting any more mobile.  Another season of many missed games and that is probably the end of him as well as jd and saleh.  

[NYJCAP2]

1 hour ago, bitonti said:

To clarify its 20 percent of the cap when he retires 

That's 20 percent for a player who certainly won't play 

Not a certainty when you don’t know the future cap # and how long he plays.

[Dax89]

On 3/5/2024 at 9:43 AM, LIJetsFan said:

You have to take opportunity cost into consideration as well.  Where would we be now had we gone another way.  Why oh why do we always sign old times in FA?  ROAD!  

Your other options are:

(1) Draft a QB, spend ~3 years seeing if they're any good.

(2) Sign a QB that their current team doesn't want anymore.  

Pick your poison.  

[Pac]

5 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

He can say whatever he wants but he’s got to stay healthy.  And he’s not getting any more mobile.  Another season of many missed games and that is probably the end of him as well as jd and saleh

Brady was immobile and lasted till 45.  Rodgers has dedicated himself to living a lifestyle conducive to being able to play at a high level for the next few years. 

All this whining about him being 40 is much ado about nothing.  Any QB that doesn't have proper protection won't last long. I suspect JD is about to go to town in FA and if the Jets can avoid the freakish amount of injuries they've experienced the last couple years on the line they'll be just fine. 

[Sperm Edwards]

3 hours ago, varjet said:

• AR8 was owed $50mm to play for the Packers in 2023.   That was what an MVP the prior year gets.   The Packers did not want to pay it.  They were able to trade him to the Jets.
• The Jets got AR8 to agree to play for $75mm for two years.  So, less per year, but more years.  AR8 banked another $25mm-so he only sort of gave the Jets a pay cut.
• For a great QB, $37.5mm/year is not terrible in 2023/24.   But he needs to be great.  
• The Jets/Woody should not be throwing around $35mm-that is what they owe him to play in 2025.  He needs to be very good in 2024 to get $35mm for 2025.
• But regardless of whether the Jets are getting a good deal or not on AR8, its a bad deal if he is too old to be healthy to play, and the Jets clearly pushed his cost into future years so they can sign players to play with him now.  That plan did not work in 2023, it may not work in 2024, and after that, the bill that becomes due will prevent the Jets from being good for awhile after AR8 leaves. 

Rodgers had 2 years left on his Packers deal, too, through this upcoming season. He signed a 3-year extension, for $150.8MM, and I think all of it was guaranteed.

He was due a guaranteed 2 years $110MM (not just 1 year at $50MM), and took a pay cut to a guaranteed 2 years $75MM. 

He took a real, actual pay cut; not a sort-of pay cut.

His 3rd year here for 2025 contains no guaranteed money. Though he's likely to get it where we sit today, if he played well enough for GB in '24 he may have gotten that as a one-year FA anyway (from them or elsewhere) if he wanted to keep playing. If he doesn't play well at all in '24, the jets are free to cut him after the season and not pay it. Alternatively, he could just decide he's done on his own & retire.

The $ joke you should be making is he went from playing for $50MM/year to playing for $75MM/year, seeing how he's only playing - ON the field - one of his two guaranteed years here.  

[Augustiniak]

Just now, Pac said:

Brady was immobile and lasted till 45.  Rodgers has dedicated himself to living a lifestyle conducive to being able to play at a high level for the next few years. 

All this whining about him being 40 is much ado about nothing.  Any QB that doesn't have proper protection won't last long. I suspect JD is about to go to town in FA and if the Jets can avoid the freakish amount of injuries they've experienced the last couple years on the line they'll be just fine. 

Brady is the problem, b/c everyone now assumes you can have that much success after 40.  It’s the exception not the rule.  The reality is that another bad injury and his career is probably over, the jets regime is done and we’re in for another rebuild. 

[Warfish]

1 minute ago, Pac said:

All this whining about him being 40 is much ado about nothing.

How many NFL QB's age 41 or older, and not named Tom Brady, have won Super Bowls in the NFL's history?

[greenwichjetfan]

38 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

He can say whatever he wants but he’s got to stay healthy.  And he’s not getting any more mobile.  Another season of many missed games and that is probably the end of him as well as jd and saleh.  

Two reasons for optimism:

1) Last year was a freak year for both QBs and for Achilles injuries around the league. Till it happens again, we can attribute a significant randomness to it.

2) Modern medicine and technology are incredible. Tom Brady just posted a faster 40 time than he did at his combine 24 years ago. Everything I've seen from Rodgers on socials and through reports shows that he's just as dedicated (if not more given the considerable chip on his shoulder) to showing everyone how good he will be for the Jets. 

If he does come back the way I hope and expect him to (I am considerably more hopeful and excited for him than 99% of the board), his contract will be a steal for the next two years. 

[bitonti]

27 minutes ago, NYJCAP2 said:

Not a certainty when you don’t know the future cap # and how long he plays.

The hit is about 50 or 60 mil depending on when it happens 

The cap is 255 after going up 50 in the last 2 seasons 

It's cocktail napkin math because you're right we don't know all the variables but it's basically around 15 - 20 percent for a player who retired.

That's problematic, regardless of the exact amount 

[greenwichjetfan]

23 minutes ago, Warfish said:

How many NFL QB's age 41 or older, and not named Tom Brady, have won Super Bowls in the NFL's history?

How many Jets QBs aged 3 or older, and not named Joe Namath, have won Super Bowls in the NFL's history?

[Rich Thornburgh]

1 hour ago, varjet said:

For the Jets Derek Carr was the logical bridge QB.  No draft pick compensation. We would have Broderick Jones and a 2nd round pick this year.  The Carr contract was basically 3 years, $100mm.  So we average a little less than Rodgers.  

If Carr plays 8+ games for the Jets last year, we may have made the playoffs.  No Hackett and Rodgers cronies.  

We probably get a wildcard seed with Carr

[Jack Straw]

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

Ah good.. back to football.  

On the topic of mortgaging the future, a few questions for you guys..  really interested in your answers so dont be shy.

1. Did you want a veteran upgrade from Zach Wilson?   (I did)

2. Did you want to trade for Rodgers?  (My initial instinct was Carr but I bought into AR assuming he was going to play for more than 1 year)

3. Do you believe $37.5M per year for him was a fair market deal?  (I did, was thrilled he took a real pay cut)

4. Did the Jets spend recklessly in FA last year?  (No although I thought they were morons for throwing $7M or so at Dalvin Cook)

5. Did you want the Jets to spend more last year..  go all in for a short term run?   (No, but I was unhappy with many of their short term choices)

6. How would you have structured Rodgers contract since the Jets weren’t flush with cap space to absorb it in year 1 or 2?  (I would have cut Lawson and not signed Cook and pushed their $17M into Rodger’s 1st year cap hit or used the money on smart free agents)

7. If you wanted a different QB, how would you have paid for him?  (Jets message board stock)

[Pac]

59 minutes ago, Warfish said:

How many NFL QB's age 41 or older, and not named Tom Brady, have won Super Bowls in the NFL's history?

Including when Rodgers does it? 

[Sperm Edwards]

1 hour ago, bitonti said:

The hit is about 50 or 60 mil depending on when it happens 

The cap is 255 after going up 50 in the last 2 seasons 

It's cocktail napkin math because you're right we don't know all the variables but it's basically around 15 - 20 percent for a player who retired.

That's problematic, regardless of the exact amount 

It'll go up a lot again. But the hit is only because it didn't hit in the past. It was moved to later by design (as most teams do with most veteran contracts). 

IOW it's not a penalty so much as a planned decision. They also had him count (in round #s) $25MM over the first two seasons where he was paid $75MM. So $50MM more has to come off the cap. 

Just like if the Saints cut Carr after this season it's $40MM in dead cap (or like after Green Bay traded Rodgers there was about a $40MM dead cap, too). The idea - if the Jets could actually draft a good QB - is the next guy's cheap first year or two will coincide with Rodgers's dead cap hit so it won't be felt as much. It does more or less mean after Rodgers there's little chance of a high-dollar veteran QB. 

This is more than $40MM, but it's also because they chose to defer more of his paid money so they could pay someone else (and if they don't, then that space isn't lost but rather it's pushed to the next season as a higher cap ceiling). 

What was far worse is Russell Wilson, because they've released him while still paying him an additional $40MM to not be on the team. His dead cap hit for 2024 is $85MM. 

So there's really no incentive to having a contract hit more now than later, in addition to the elephant in the room that the GM's job is on the line and I expect he's not in long term future-planning for the team's cap health in 2024. 

Ultimately they can survive that and more -- the trick is to draft well. If they draft poorly, and need to find new high-dollar FA starters every year, then those dead hits eventually become unsustainable. If they keep using up that deferred Rodgers cap hit on the next batch of 2023's Lazard, Cobb, Hardmann, Cook, D.Brown, etc. then it'll be another Jets turd sandwich anyway, even if Rodgers mostly returns to form.

[#27TheDominator]

I love people acting like dead cap is the problem.  The problem is the money spent.  A dollar spend this year cost me more than one spent next year.  Particularly when you consider that it will surely be a small percentage of the cap.

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

4 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

It'll go up a lot again. But the hit is only because it didn't hit in the past. It was moved to later by design (as most teams do with most veteran contracts). 

IOW it's not a penalty so much as a planned decision. They also had him count (in round #s) $25MM over the first two seasons where he was paid $75MM. So $50MM more has to come off the cap. 

Just like if the Saints cut Carr after this season it's $40MM in dead cap (or like after Green Bay traded Rodgers there was about a $40MM dead cap, too). The idea - if the Jets could actually draft a good QB - is the next guy's cheap first year or two will coincide with Rodgers's dead cap hit so it won't be felt as much. It does more or less mean after Rodgers there's little chance of a high-dollar veteran QB. 

This is more than $40MM, but it's also because they chose to defer more of his paid money so they could pay someone else (and if they don't, then that space isn't lost but rather it's pushed to the next season as a higher cap ceiling). 

What was far worse is Russell Wilson, because they've released him while still paying him an additional $40MM to not be on the team. His dead cap hit for 2024 is $85MM. 

So there's really no incentive to having a contract hit more now than later, in addition to the elephant in the room that the GM's job is on the line and I expect he's not in long term future-planning for the team's cap health in 2024. 

Ultimately they can survive that and more -- the trick is to draft well. If they draft poorly, and need to find new high-dollar FA starters every year, then those dead hits eventually become unsustainable. If they keep using up that deferred Rodgers cap hit on the next batch of 2023's Lazard, Cobb, Hardmann, Cook, D.Brown, etc. then it'll be another Jets turd sandwich anyway, even if Rodgers mostly returns to form.

Amen!  I knew reinforcements were on the way.

 

[Sperm Edwards]

Just now, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

Amen!  I knew reinforcements were on the way.

 

Lol

People can have legitimate opinions in either direction in acquiring Rodgers in the first place. It’s disingenuous, however, to lament an eventual $50MM dead hit while ignoring the reason for it is the equal amount of cap space cleared over the first two seasons by backloading it.

Also that $50MM represents a smaller percentage of the cap when it gals falls under higher cap ceilings. Even more so during a span of enormous cap level increases starting in 2024. $50MM is a tangibly higher percentage of (2024’s) $225MM than of the ~$300MM the limit will be when the dead cap finally hits. Yet people still post as though front or even-loading hits, rather than backloading them, is somehow the more fiscally responsible way when the opposite is true.

[Dunnie]

8 hours ago, Warfish said:

Yeah .. but the Jets have NEVER developed a QB .. ever !

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

10 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Lol

People can have legitimate opinions in either direction in acquiring Rodgers in the first place. It’s disingenuous, however, to lament an eventual $50MM dead hit while ignoring the reason for it is the equal amount of cap space cleared over the first two seasons by backloading it.

Also that $50MM represents a smaller percentage of the cap when it gals falls under higher cap ceilings. Even more so during a span of enormous cap level increases starting in 2024. $50MM is a tangibly higher percentage of (2024’s) $225MM than of the ~$300MM the limit will be when the dead cap finally hits. Yet people still post as though front or even-loading hits, rather than backloading them, is somehow the more fiscally responsible way when the opposite is true.

Well said.  It’s also disingenuous reading those who were completely behind the deal now call it a horrible albatross.

Hindsight is easy.  A good deal can absolutely turn bad for a variety of reasons (like injuries and failure to secure a backup QB) but that doesn’t mean it was the wrong decision at the time. .. 

Still waiting for any insights into how the Jets would have fit any quality veteran QB under their cap without deferring a significant chunk, either from that person or somebody else.

Have a good night.  Chicken stew awaits