Popular Post OtherwiseHappyinLife Posted March 5 Popular Post Share Posted March 5 This is likely worth its own thread because there is this perception in some corners of this board that Rodgers is a long term albatross that will set the franchise back years. The fact of the matter is that Rodgers’ contract is ranked #14th for QBs. 3 years for a total of $112.5M if the Jets exercise a third year non guaranteed roster bonus = $35M (plus $2.5M salary). $75M is guaranteed over the first 2 years but much of the cap hit is spread over the subsequent 5 years to keep the cap hit minimal the first 2 years. Only $5M of the $75M is salary. If the Jets don’t exercise the 3rd year bonus, the contract is essentially 2 years or avg $37.5M per year. 2023 = $8.9M 2024 = $17.1M 2025 dead money = $49M Total = $75M for 2 years If the Jets exercise 2025, then the $112.5M for 3 years of play is spread as follows: 2023 = $8.9M 2024 = $17.1M 2025 = $23.5M 2026 dead money = $63M Total = $112.M for 3 years The dead money hits should be considered earned pay but deferred to a time when the cap continues to rise. This is different than guaranteeing most of the contract in the case of Deshaun Watson and living with dead money that was never earned. Anyways, I felt compelled to clear that up ;). 5 1 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Larz Posted March 5 Popular Post Share Posted March 5 What’s that work out to for 4 plays ? 2 1 13 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post varjet Posted March 5 Popular Post Share Posted March 5 I summarized this in another thread. The key is to spread the dead money over 2 years so they can actually field a team the year AR8 retires. JD completely sold the farm here by not absorbing enough cap in 23 and 24 and pushing it out. This was a complete go for broke in 2023-24 contract. AR8 has to look really great to exercise the $35mm option for 2025. I would just move on unless AR8 really lowers it. 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIJetsFan Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 You have to take opportunity cost into consideration as well. Where would we be now had we gone another way. Why oh why do we always sign old times in FA? ROAD! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post OtherwiseHappyinLife Posted March 5 Author Popular Post Share Posted March 5 3 hours ago, varjet said: I summarized this in another thread. The key is to spread the dead money over 2 years so they can actually field a team the year AR8 retires. JD completely sold the farm here by not absorbing enough cap in 23 and 24 and pushing it out. This was a complete go for broke in 2023-24 contract. AR8 has to look really great to exercise the $35mm option for 2025. I would just move on unless AR8 really lowers it. But he did take a pay cut. For 2 years of work, he will earn $75M. For 3 years of work, he will earn $112.5M. Yes, they spread the cap hit out just like most teams do. Dummy years are a part of a lot of contracts to accrue bonuses over a longer period of time. In comparison, for 2 years of service, Russell Wilson was guaranteed $124M. Deshaun Watson is guaranteed $230M after 2 years regardless if he is cut now or makes it through his 5 year contract. An argument had been made that Rodgers should be grouped with these guys. Rodgers contract isn't in the same stratosphere nor was the compensation the Jets gave up. The argument further stated the Jets are in this contract situation because they went after an old timer. Derek Carr, who many on this board wanted, has a very similar contract to Rodgers. 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post OtherwiseHappyinLife Posted March 5 Author Popular Post Share Posted March 5 4 hours ago, Larz said: What’s that work out to for 4 plays ? That's a different topic. Jets haven't had a QB start a full season since Fitzpatrick year 1. Rodgers on the other hand had started a full season 7 of the 8 years prior to joining the Jets. Narratives are great. Facts are better. Injuries happen, especially to the Jets. There were several Achilles injuries this year to young and old players. 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post bitonti Posted March 5 Popular Post Share Posted March 5 4 hours ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said: The fact of the matter is that Rodgers’ contract is ranked #14th for QBs. 14th ranked contract and no production is not some sort of amazing bargain 4 hours ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said: If the Jets don’t exercise the 3rd year bonus 2025 dead money = $49M If the Jets exercise 2025 2026 dead money = $63M The dead money hits should be considered earned pay but deferred to a time when the cap continues to rise. These are very bad numbers even in a world where the cap keeps rising. It's basically 20 percent of the total cap in one player who isn't playing 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adoni Beast Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 I think he ends up playing 3 more years when all is said and done. I'm not sure of the quality in which he will play but I think given the ego and amount of money + control he has with the Jets he will play longer than most expect. Either the team does well and Saleh/Douglas get extended and Rodgers continues to control the team Or the team stinks in 2024 and Rodgers gets to pick his own GM and HC before he retires Either way he is not giving this kind of opportunity. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barry McCockinner Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 4 hours ago, Larz said: What’s that work out to for 4 plays ? You might have missed but he did announce he's going to play in 2024. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OtherwiseHappyinLife Posted March 5 Author Share Posted March 5 1 minute ago, bitonti said: 14th ranked contract and no production is not some sort of amazing bargain These are very bad numbers even in a world where the cap keeps rising. It's basically 20 percent of the total cap in one player who isn't playing Like I said, injuries are a different topic. Joe Burrows might agree. That same 20% might have been deferred if the Jets went after another QB ... Derek Carr as mentioned above. Let me be clear though. I'm not defending the Jets, Woody, JD, Saleh, or Rodgers. Last year was an epic fail and the Jets both failed to capitalize on deferring the cap and failed to have a reasonable contingency plan. If Rodgers fails to perform or stay healthy this year, I will be in the horrible deal group. If the Jets fail to build around him, same thing. But, Rodgers is not in the same camp as those other QBs, his deferred cap hit is still painful but can be mitigated if the Jets draft and develop a mid round QB. The Browns are ****ed and so are the Broncos. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oatmeal Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 25 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said: But he did take a pay cut. For 2 years of work, he will earn $75M. For 3 years of work, he will earn $112.5M. Yes, they spread the cap hit out just like most teams do. Dummy years are a part of a lot of contracts to accrue bonuses over a longer period of time. In comparison, for 2 years of service, Russell Wilson was guaranteed $124M. Deshaun Watson is guaranteed $230M after 2 years regardless if he is cut now or makes it through his 5 year contract. An argument had been made that Rodgers should be grouped with these guys. Rodgers contract isn't in the same stratosphere nor was the compensation the Jets gave up. The argument further stated the Jets are in this contract situation because they went after an old timer. Derek Carr, who many on this board wanted, has a very similar contract to Rodgers. 19 minutes ago, Adoni Beast said: I think he ends up playing 3 more years when all is said and done. I'm not sure of the quality in which he will play but I think given the ego and amount of money + control he has with the Jets he will play longer than most expect. Either the team does well and Saleh/Douglas get extended and Rodgers continues to control the team Or the team stinks in 2024 and Rodgers gets to pick his own GM and HC before he retires Either way he is not giving this kind of opportunity. These are some really great points here Good stuff guys @OtherwiseHappyinLifeyou cleared a lot up regarding the contract for me 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawk Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 12 hours ago, varjet said: I summarized this in another thread. The key is to spread the dead money over 2 years so they can actually field a team the year AR8 retires. JD completely sold the farm here by not absorbing enough cap in 23 and 24 and pushing it out. This was a complete go for broke in 2023-24 contract. AR8 has to look really great to exercise the $35mm option for 2025. I would just move on unless AR8 really lowers it. If Rodgers plays in 2025, the can will get kicked further down road. At which time, the Jets will either pick up a draft pick or cheap starter. Cap is a farce. Of course it isn't non existent, you can only do so much, but it is not a real factor to building a quality roster. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beerfish Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 Jet fans are enraged that we are letting Bryce Huff go, a situational part time guy whom he drafted a replacement last year. Can;t wait for a couple more years when Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, Sauce Gardner and Jermaine Johnson are commanding top dollar, along with AVT if he stays healthy, maybe DJ Reed, Quincy Williams may need a new deal. And at the same time all the cap commitments we hid away come into being. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post jeremy2020 Posted March 6 Popular Post Share Posted March 6 Imagine being so unhappy in life that you try to defend the Rodgers contract as a "good" one. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunnie Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 Imagine being so unhappy in life that you try to defend the Rodgers contract as a "good" one.When compared to the reality of ZW at QB for two more years, or derrick F'ing carr for another 5 ... It's not a bad option except in hindsight.At least that's what the mob has drilled.Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Crusher Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 17 hours ago, bitonti said: 14th ranked contract and no production is not some sort of amazing bargain These are very bad numbers even in a world where the cap keeps rising. It's basically 20 percent of the total cap in one player who isn't playing To be fair none of the players are playing right now. I’m gonna bump this thread after the fourth play next season but well before the 15th just to show you up. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OtherwiseHappyinLife Posted March 6 Author Share Posted March 6 6 hours ago, jeremy2020 said: Imagine being so unhappy in life that you try to defend the Rodgers contract as a "good" one. Why the snark? I didn’t say good, it just isn’t anywhere near the others and won’t be the franchise killer that some have portrayed it to be. I’m actually very happy in life other than the Jets … hence my screen name. Man .. reading comprehension really is going down these days. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 19 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said: You might have missed but he did announce he's going to play in 2024. Remember when Larz was Aaron Rodgers' biggest fanboy? As recently as 6 months ago? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYJCAP2 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 19 hours ago, bitonti said: 14th ranked contract and no production is not some sort of amazing bargain These are very bad numbers even in a world where the cap keeps rising. It's basically 20 percent of the total cap in one player who isn't playing Many here are just suffering from either recency bias or the feeling of contempt. He’s going to play, many will then be eating out of the palm of his hand come October-November. The contract is certainly not crippling or cap jail. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UntouchableCrew Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 I’m failing to understand how massive dead cap numbers in 2025 and 2026 is “better than we think” for a 40 year old QB coming off an Achilles injury. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warfish Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 20 hours ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said: That's a different topic. Jets haven't had a QB start a full season since Fitzpatrick year 1. Rodgers on the other hand had started a full season 7 of the 8 years prior to joining the Jets. Narratives are great. Facts are better. Injuries happen, especially to the Jets. There were several Achilles injuries this year to young and old players. Enjoying your new job in the Jets PR/Marketing Dept eh? Nothing like pissing on peoples head and telling them it's a fresh spring rain.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OtherwiseHappyinLife Posted March 6 Author Share Posted March 6 1 hour ago, UntouchableCrew said: I’m failing to understand how massive dead cap numbers in 2025 and 2026 is “better than we think” for a 40 year old QB coming off an Achilles injury. My starting point is that $37.5M per year over 2 or 3 years for Aaron Rodgers is not overpaid. Most people on here not named @Beerfish @FidelioJet @dbatesman @bitonti were very happy with this restructured contract last year, after he gave back $35M. So the market total pay was more than fair for an Aaron Rodgers as was the trade value since we learned after the fact that Rodgers planned to play for more than 1 year and possibly 3 or even more (his words). But the failure on a number of previous draft picks & free agents made Rodger's deal structure a necessity. It's not like they went out and signed all these high priced free agents last year. Even now, the Jets are NOT oozing all this cap space. Meaning that any credible veteran QB they got last year (which most of wanted), including Carr, Jimmy G, Lamar Jackson would have required a back-loaded deal. We can all do the math together! A lot of the revisionists (not you or those mentioned above) are now up in arms over the Aaron Rodger's deal. Saying we mortgaged the future. Who? Allen Lazard who we can cut after this year with a neglibible dead cap hit. All the other Rodgers loafs who are no longer on the team and don't carry any dead cap hit. The Jets missing on Zach Wilson, Mekhi Becton, Duane Brown, Laken Tomlinson, CJ Uzomah, not cutting Carl Lawson sooner and not requesting a pay cut from CJ Mosley put the Jets in this situation. They pivoted to Aaron Rodgers and needed to backload a fair market deal to fit him under the cap. Yet so many here who wanted Rodgers are now shocked at the type of contract struture it took to get him.. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OtherwiseHappyinLife Posted March 6 Author Share Posted March 6 35 minutes ago, Warfish said: Enjoying your new job in the Jets PR/Marketing Dept eh? Nothing like pissing on peoples head and telling them it's a fresh spring rain.... It's an opinion Warfish. I don't know why you are so sensitive to it. I tried to thoughtfully respond above to explain my position. As always, respect yours and others opinions. Hope you can respect mine. No negative intent. We're all frustrated and the Jets leadership did an awful awful awful job in almost every case last year. I'm pissed as well, hence my screen name. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warfish Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 9 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said: It's an opinion Warfish. I don't know why you are so sensitive to it. Being critical of it does not indicate sensitivity, it indicates disagreement. 9 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said: I tried to thoughtfully respond above to explain my position. As always, respect yours and others opinions. Hope you can respect mine. No negative intent. Never presumed there was any negative intent. Homers and self-deluded pollyannas don't mean harm, they just see things incorrectly as all sunshine and roses, and presume the best will happen. They live in a fantasy world. Like this thread, fantasizing that the Rodgers trade is all gonna work out, and not go down as yet another massive mistake in a long history of Jets massive mistakes. 9 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said: We're all frustrated and the Jets leadership did an awful awful awful job in almost every case last year. I'm pissed as well, hence my screen name. I'm not pissed actually. I'm resigned. Baseball season is about to start, and honestly the Nats, horrible tho they are, have brought me alot more joy in recent years than the Jets ever have. Been a longer-then-hope post WS rebuild, but at least there is hope. I have no hope for this current Jets regime, from JD on down. Trying to make the Rodgers contract sound better after a year where he gave us the most Jetsy 4-play stint ever is just funny really. There IS no reason to try and portray it in a better light, really. Just let it be what it is, no need to play spindoctor about it. Or put differently, it's be like me trying to make the Stephen Strasburg contract look better. Nope, it is was and always will be a bad decision. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slimjasi Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 The contract is fine if he plays well for us. But it's pretty terrible if he plays 4 plays a year. LOL 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OtherwiseHappyinLife Posted March 6 Author Share Posted March 6 5 minutes ago, Warfish said: Being critical of it does not indicate sensitivity, it indicates disagreement. Never presumed there was any negative intent. Homers and self-deluded pollyannas don't mean harm, they just see things incorrectly as all sunshine and roses, and presume the best will happen. They live in a fantasy world. Like this thread, fantasizing that the Rodgers trade is all gonna work out, and not go down as yet another massive mistake in a long history of Jets massive mistakes. I'm not pissed actually. I'm resigned. Baseball season is about to start, and honestly the Nats, horrible tho they are, have brought me alot more joy in recent years than the Jets ever have. Been a longer-then-hope post WS rebuild, but at least there is hope. I have no hope for this current Jets regime, from JD on down. Trying to make the Rodgers contract sound better after a year where he gave us the most Jetsy 4-play stint ever is just funny really. There IS no reason to try and portray it in a better light, really. Just let it be what it is, no need to play spindoctor about it. I can see you didn't read my thought behind it. Yet still calling me a homer or self-deluded. Never said the trade was going to work out. It's the Jets. Have a good day. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OtherwiseHappyinLife Posted March 6 Author Share Posted March 6 1 minute ago, slimjasi said: The contract is fine if he plays well for us. But it's pretty terrible if he plays 4 plays a year. LOL LOL. How about 4-4, 4 TDs and a QB rating of 100? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warfish Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 3 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said: Have a good day. It's a work day mate, they can only be so good. Enjoy your laughable "this is fine" spin-thread. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeremy2020 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 2 hours ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said: Why the snark? I didn’t say good, it just isn’t anywhere near the others and won’t be the franchise killer that some have portrayed it to be. I’m actually very happy in life other than the Jets … hence my screen name. Man .. reading comprehension really is going down these days. Imagine being so unhappy in life that any joke with the slightest poke gets under your skin 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OtherwiseHappyinLife Posted March 6 Author Share Posted March 6 1 minute ago, jeremy2020 said: Imagine being so unhappy in life that any joke with the slightest poke gets under your skin Imagine being able to dish it but not be able to take the slightest poke back. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warfish Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 3 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said: Imagine being able to dish it but not be able to take the slightest poke back. Thread not really working out the way you hoped when you wrote the OP, is it. Don't worry, happens to the best of us from time to time, lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OtherwiseHappyinLife Posted March 6 Author Share Posted March 6 Just now, Warfish said: Thread not really working out the way you hoped when you wrote the OP, is it. Don't worry, happens to the best of us from time to time, lol. This is a Jets fan message board. I wrote some thoughts spurred by another post comparing Rodgers deal to Watson and Wilson's and attempted to make a case for why it isn't. Clarifying why the deal had to be backloaded. Jeez. Am I in the wrong place? Isn't respectful debate a thing anymore? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitonti Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 2 hours ago, NYJCAP2 said: Many here are just suffering from either recency bias or the feeling of contempt. He’s going to play, many will then be eating out of the palm of his hand come October-November. The contract is certainly not crippling or cap jail. To clarify its 20 percent of the cap when he retires That's 20 percent for a player who certainly won't play Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
varjet Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 AR8 was owed $50mm to play for the Packers in 2023. That was what an MVP the prior year gets. The Packers did not want to pay it. They were able to trade him to the Jets. The Jets got AR8 to agree to play for $75mm for two years. So, less per year, but more years. AR8 banked another $25mm-so he only sort of gave the Jets a pay cut. For a great QB, $37.5mm/year is not terrible in 2023/24. But he needs to be great. The Jets/Woody should not be throwing around $35mm-that is what they owe him to play in 2025. He needs to be very good in 2024 to get $35mm for 2025. But regardless of whether the Jets are getting a good deal or not on AR8, its a bad deal if he is too old to be healthy to play, and the Jets clearly pushed his cost into future years so they can sign players to play with him now. That plan did not work in 2023, it may not work in 2024, and after that, the bill that becomes due will prevent the Jets from being good for awhile after AR8 leaves. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warfish Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 11 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said: Am I in the wrong place? Being positive or optimistic? Absolutely you are, lol. 11 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said: Isn't respectful debate a thing anymore? I think our definitions of "respectful" might be quite different today my friend, you seem exceedingly sensitive in this thread IMO. Relax man. We're not curing cancer here, sadly. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.