Official NFL Draft Rumors and News Thread

[Barry McCockinner]

9 minutes ago, chirorob said:

I don't understand his behavior.  He is a job interview for a massive job, yes, he will be drafted high in the 1st round, but dropping just 1 spot costs over 1 million dollars.   Do whatever it takes to not let someone drop you a slot, give them no excuse.

Let's take a look at the estimated total value of rookie contracts for each first-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, based on Spotrac's data:

• No. 1: $41.2 million.
• No. 2: $39.4 million.
• No. 3: $38.2 million.
• No. 4: $36.9 million.
• No. 5: $34.5 million.
• No. 6: $30.4 million.
• No. 7: $27.02 million.
• No. 8: $23.7 million.

He literally asked teams if they needed to see anything else at his pro day and they all said no. The narrative of him thumbing his nose at anything is just made up BS.

He'll be the first WR taken.

[slats]

13 minutes ago, chirorob said:

I don't understand his behavior.  He is a job interview for a massive job, yes, he will be drafted high in the 1st round, but dropping just 1 spot costs over 1 million dollars.   Do whatever it takes to not let someone drop you a slot, give them no excuse.

Let's take a look at the estimated total value of rookie contracts for each first-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, based on Spotrac's data:

• No. 1: $41.2 million.
• No. 2: $39.4 million.
• No. 3: $38.2 million.
• No. 4: $36.9 million.
• No. 5: $34.5 million.
• No. 6: $30.4 million.
• No. 7: $27.02 million.
• No. 8: $23.7 million.

He’s going #4. Probably the safest prediction in the draft. Unless he goes earlier. 

[Beerfish]

32 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Would have been really easy for any of them to ask him to run a 40 or whatever drill if it was important to them. They've seen the tape and know he's the premier WR in this class.

As I said it is not as clear cut as people are saying.  

If some receivers increase their stock and are already not that far away he could get passed.

He has done nothing to increase his stock sice the beginning,he is 100% assuming he is the number one guy, slam dunk.

[derp]

1 hour ago, Mr. Rogers said:

If we can do this for only a 4, I'd agree. I do think there's an issue though - the logic from the Falcons end would be that they can get the same guy at 8 or 10. But if (assumably) Odunze goes to us at 8, what does Chicago do? Maybe take the Falcons "guy". 

They'd probably want more than a 4 in case that happens, as I imagine the "guy" is Dallas Turner and the Bears are rather likely to grab him if he's there. Is it worth a 3? I'm not so sure. I think if we can't do this for a 4, GM Mr. Rogers is staying pat and looking for a trade back if Odunze really goes at 9.

Depends who their guy is. If Turner I agree. Believe they have a corner need too though and Chicago is set there. And if it takes a minor 2025 pick to get it done I probably wouldn’t quibble too much.

[derp]

1 hour ago, slats said:

Then it would come down to the Jets evaluations of WRs #3 & 4, and what they believe will happen at pick #9. If they felt it was the right call, I wouldn’t get too upset (until I had a couple years of hindsight, when I’d be posting a lengthy, angry thread about it). 

I think there’s a gap between WR3 and WR4. My big issue is 10 is likely no man’s land. If he thinks someone will move up no qualms with that but otherwise be moderately aggressive and get ahead of missing a tier break instead of getting caught with your pants down and no trade partner and picking your favorite of a tier below.

[#27TheDominator]

1 hour ago, chirorob said:

I don't understand his behavior.  He is a job interview for a massive job, yes, he will be drafted high in the 1st round, but dropping just 1 spot costs over 1 million dollars.   Do whatever it takes to not let someone drop you a slot, give them no excuse.

Let's take a look at the estimated total value of rookie contracts for each first-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, based on Spotrac's data:

• No. 1: $41.2 million.
• No. 2: $39.4 million.
• No. 3: $38.2 million.
• No. 4: $36.9 million.
• No. 5: $34.5 million.
• No. 6: $30.4 million.
• No. 7: $27.02 million.
• No. 8: $23.7 million.

What does he have to gain?  He isn't jumping the two QBs.  He likely isn't going to run his 40 any faster than Nabers.  Ask Keon Coleman how much that helped him.  I guess the argument is that Keon Coleman wasn't that high of a level of prospect, but it is the same thing on a higher level.  Compare how far MHJ can rise with how far he can fall and tell me why he should risk it.  To satisfy us draftniks?  These teams should know pretty much everything there is to know.

[Barry McCockinner]

40 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

As I said it is not as clear cut as people are saying.  

If some receivers increase their stock and are already not that far away he could get passed.

He has done nothing to increase his stock sice the beginning,he is 100% assuming he is the number one guy, slam dunk.

Yes I know what you've been saying and disagree. MHJ is going to be the first WR taken and doesn't need to increase his stock. His stock couldn't increase. The only difference now is a bunch of people trying to outsmart the room taking shots.

[#27TheDominator]

40 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

As I said it is not as clear cut as people are saying.  

If some receivers increase their stock and are already not that far away he could get passed.

He has done nothing to increase his stock sice the beginning,he is 100% assuming he is the number one guy, slam dunk.

I think it is just as clear cut as people are saying.  I think these articles about Nabers passing MHJ are primarily just click bait.  To the extent they are not, I think it is just Justin Jefferson's success pulling him up.  What does he have to gain?  I don't think he expected to be as fast as Nabers, so what is he going to gain?  

[Beerfish]

21 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

I think it is just as clear cut as people are saying.  I think these articles about Nabers passing MHJ are primarily just click bait.  To the extent they are not, I think it is just Justin Jefferson's success pulling him up.  What does he have to gain?  I don't think he expected to be as fast as Nabers, so what is he going to gain?  

If you stay static and others gain you can get passed and then wonder why the guy just passed you.

[T0mShane]

1 hour ago, chirorob said:

I don't understand his behavior.  He is a job interview for a massive job, yes, he will be drafted high in the 1st round, but dropping just 1 spot costs over 1 million dollars.   Do whatever it takes to not let someone drop you a slot, give them no excuse.

Let's take a look at the estimated total value of rookie contracts for each first-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, based on Spotrac's data:

• No. 1: $41.2 million.
• No. 2: $39.4 million.
• No. 3: $38.2 million.
• No. 4: $36.9 million.
• No. 5: $34.5 million.
• No. 6: $30.4 million.
• No. 7: $27.02 million.
• No. 8: $23.7 million.

Teams have all the tracking data on these players, especially from the big programs. They know how fast they can run and accelerate. Ohio State’s training program and facilities are pretty much on par with anything you’ll find in the NFL. The Combine is useful for lesser known players from less advanced programs, but it’s mostly just a media event now. 

[SickJetFan]

1 hour ago, chirorob said:

I don't understand his behavior.  He is a job interview for a massive job, yes, he will be drafted high in the 1st round, but dropping just 1 spot costs over 1 million dollars.   Do whatever it takes to not let someone drop you a slot, give them no excuse.

Let's take a look at the estimated total value of rookie contracts for each first-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, based on Spotrac's data:

• No. 1: $41.2 million.
• No. 2: $39.4 million.
• No. 3: $38.2 million.
• No. 4: $36.9 million.
• No. 5: $34.5 million.
• No. 6: $30.4 million.
• No. 7: $27.02 million.
• No. 8: $23.7 million.

There was a story I read back during the off-season where we drafted Jamal Adams.  I don't remember if he ran at combine but he did run at his pro day at LSU and ran something like a 4.34 which really helped his draft stock.  He was asked about that and he went into how he trained with LSU track team using those clips/blocks they use to start off from and showed how they really helped him use that.  Which sounds easier said than done.  Not starting correctly could mean the difference between running 4.3 and 4.5.  So you really have to practice getting off that block perfectly especially with these margins of error so small.  None of it really means they will be a good football player or not (obviously) but as you said could greatly effect their bottom line but that goes 2 ways.  A football player that is concerned with catching 1000 passes from jug machine or practicing a route tree may not have time to get coached up on using a starting block and even if he was that coaching may not take and they say F it - look at my tape because I bet it does more harm than good on a lot of players looking to get paid.

[#27TheDominator]

15 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

If you stay static and others gain you can get passed and then wonder why the guy just passed you.

They are generally gaining compared to each other.  If Harrison is not interviewing well that is one thing, but not running is not going to make any difference IMO.

[#27TheDominator]

4 minutes ago, SickJetFan said:

There was a story I read back during the off-season where we drafted Jamal Adams.  I don't remember if he ran at combine but he did run at his pro day at LSU and ran something like a 4.34 which really helped his draft stock.  He was asked about that and he went into how he trained with LSU track team using those clips/blocks they use to start off from and showed how they really helped him use that.  Which sounds easier said than done.  Not starting correctly could mean the difference between running 4.3 and 4.5.  So you really have to practice getting off that block perfectly especially with these margins of error so small.  None of it really means they will be a good football player or not (obviously) but as you said could greatly effect their bottom line but that goes 2 ways.  A football player that is concerned with catching 1000 passes from jug machine or practicing a route tree may not have time to get coached up on using a starting block and even if he was that coaching may not take and they say F it - look at my tape because I bet it does more harm than good on a lot of players looking to get paid.

Not to detract from the point, but Jamal Adams never ran any 4.33 forty.  I think Gil Brandt had him at 4.45 which anybody that has seen him play should be skeptical of, but the 4.33 was one of his cronies throwing it up with that caption on twitter where it remains to this day.  Hand timed 40s are pretty much a joke and only useful if you have your guy timing each prospect.  That is why the combine is nice for the general public to compare, even if it is just a dog and pony show.

[Jetpain]

4 hours ago, jetsons said:

I personally believe the Jets are looking for OL help @ 10 or a trade down where they can get a 2nd if they can find a reasonable partner... Best OL 1st & Best WR 2nd. 

I dont think the Jets will trade down far enough to get a 2nd round pick back.  I see them possibly dropping back up to 5 spots and picking up a 3rd round pick in return. I think if they go past 15 they wont get the tackle they want.  Then we have 2 thirds or you can package them together for a second. 

[Rhg1084]

24 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Teams have all the tracking data on these players, especially from the big programs. They know how fast they can run and accelerate. Ohio State’s training program and facilities are pretty much on par with anything you’ll find in the NFL. The Combine is useful for lesser known players from less advanced programs, but it’s mostly just a media event now. 

They got MHJ running over 22 MPH in a game, what more info do we need? Lol

 

 

[T0mShane]

17 minutes ago, SickJetFan said:

There was a story I read back during the off-season where we drafted Jamal Adams.  I don't remember if he ran at combine but he did run at his pro day at LSU and ran something like a 4.34 which really helped his draft stock.  He was asked about that and he went into how he trained with LSU track team using those clips/blocks they use to start off from and showed how they really helped him use that.  Which sounds easier said than done.  Not starting correctly could mean the difference between running 4.3 and 4.5.  So you really have to practice getting off that block perfectly especially with these margins of error so small.  None of it really means they will be a good football player or not (obviously) but as you said could greatly effect their bottom line but that goes 2 ways.  A football player that is concerned with catching 1000 passes from jug machine or practicing a route tree may not have time to get coached up on using a starting block and even if he was that coaching may not take and they say F it - look at my tape because I bet it does more harm than good on a lot of players looking to get paid.

He ran mid-4.5’s at the Combine, then dropped it down to low 4.4’s at the LSU Pro Day, which is such a notoriously fast track that scouts tend to ignore the results coming from it

[SickJetFan]

Just now, T0mShane said:

He ran mid-4.5’s at the Combine, then dropped it down to low 4.4’s at the LSU Pro Day, which is such a notoriously fast track that scouts tend to ignore the results coming from it

he ran 4.56 at combine for you nitpicker

and it was reported he ran 4.33 at pro day.

 

And yes everytime the pro days number are better for obvious reasons

 

https://www.nola.com/sports/jamal-adams-on-4-33-40-yard-dash-i-felt-like-i-had-something-to/article_1a4725fe-e583-5977-bd70-699b96bdded5.html

[Beerfish]

44 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Teams have all the tracking data on these players, especially from the big programs. They know how fast they can run and accelerate. Ohio State’s training program and facilities are pretty much on par with anything you’ll find in the NFL. The Combine is useful for lesser known players from less advanced programs, but it’s mostly just a media event now. 

Depends on how old school the gm is (not many left ) There are still going to be guys despite some of these metrics iwll ask why a guy is not competing, is he going to be a problem down the road?  And get wowed by seeing a guy throwing up numbers like nabres just did.

If there was no value in these things teams would not waste time being there.

[BornJetsFan1983]

I love our options at wr and Ot. I would be pissy if we didn't get either. But I much rather in any situation trade back for a 1st next year, later this year and take whatever bpa is at ot wr. I hope we find a trade partner unless our guy falls 

[BornJetsFan1983]

12 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Depends on how old school the gm is (not many left ) There are still going to be guys despite some of these metrics iwll ask why a guy is not competing, is he going to be a problem down the road?  And get wowed by seeing a guy throwing up numbers like nabres just did.

If there was no value in these things teams would not waste time being there.

Our GM is old school 🏫🏫🏫

[Larz]

2 hours ago, chirorob said:

I don't understand his behavior.  He is a job interview for a massive job, yes, he will be drafted high in the 1st round, but dropping just 1 spot costs over 1 million dollars.   Do whatever it takes to not let someone drop you a slot, give them no excuse.

Let's take a look at the estimated total value of rookie contracts for each first-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, based on Spotrac's data:

• No. 1: $41.2 million.
• No. 2: $39.4 million.
• No. 3: $38.2 million.
• No. 4: $36.9 million.
• No. 5: $34.5 million.
• No. 6: $30.4 million.
• No. 7: $27.02 million.
• No. 8: $23.7 million.

The teams have gps analytics on these guys now. It’s not 1977 anymore 

[Mr. Rogers]

31 minutes ago, Jetpain said:

I dont think the Jets will trade down far enough to get a 2nd round pick back.  I see them possibly dropping back up to 5 spots and picking up a 3rd round pick in return. I think if they go past 15 they wont get the tackle they want.  Then we have 2 thirds or you can package them together for a second. 

I don't know that missing the "tackle that they want" by going below 15 is the issue. It's more that pick 10 is a bit of no-mans-land, and I can't see a player that teams way behind us would be willing to trade significant assets for to come get (except if Odunze or Alt falls, but I assume we want them).

HOWEVER, there is a scenario where the a QB that the Vikings/Broncos/Raiders/Saints want is on the board at 10 (Nix? McCarthy if things go unexpectedly?). If we can get them in a bidding war, a 2nd may be possible. Even if we can only get a 3rd, that's OK to me.

[Jetpain]

14 minutes ago, Mr. Rogers said:

I don't know that missing the "tackle that they want" by going below 15 is the issue. It's more that pick 10 is a bit of no-mans-land, and I can't see a player that teams way behind us would be willing to trade significant assets for to come get (except if Odunze or Alt falls, but I assume we want them).

HOWEVER, there is a scenario where the a QB that the Vikings/Broncos/Raiders/Saints want is on the board at 10 (Nix? McCarthy if things go unexpectedly?). If we can get them in a bidding war, a 2nd may be possible. Even if we can only get a 3rd, that's OK to me.

I agree completely.  McCarthy is the potential wildcard.  If hes still available at 10 then we may get some interest 

[Larz]

We are in peak lying season 

[T0mShane]

McCarthy is going to be this year’s Anthony Richardson for me because I’ll be in absolute denial that he’s going top ten and then he’ll go top five. 

 

[derp]

28 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

McCarthy is going to be this year’s Anthony Richardson for me because I’ll be in absolute denial that he’s going top ten and then he’ll go top five. 

 

I think the thing with McCarthy is how much teams will love the times they see him drill an out for nine yards on third and seven.

He’s theoretically kind of perfect for Shanahan teams who will ask him to be boring and lean on the run most of the game but want him to rip throws when they can’t just scheme stuff up because he seems to not really care about his own stats, takes care of the ball, and he’s toolsy-ish.

That said the sample size of throws is pretty small. I also really like it when a quarterback has answers against pressure, it could be the noggin but it’s easier when he’s got wheels or is a tank and I don’t think McCarthy has those kinds of wheels even though he’s a good athlete.

Still think he can be dangerous on a rookie deal in the right offense. McDaniel would probably love to pivot to him.

[T0mShane]

3 minutes ago, derp said:

I think the thing with McCarthy is how much teams will love the times they see him drill an out for nine yards on third and seven.

He’s theoretically kind of perfect for Shanahan teams who will ask him to be boring and lean on the run most of the game but want him to rip throws when they can’t just scheme stuff up because he seems to not really care about his own stats, takes care of the ball, and he’s toolsy-ish.

That said the sample size of throws is pretty small. I also really like it when a quarterback has answers against pressure, it could be the noggin but it’s easier when he’s got wheels or is a tank and I don’t think McCarthy has those kinds of wheels even though he’s a good athlete.

Still think he can be dangerous on a rookie deal in the right offense. McDaniel would probably love to pivot to him.

Yeah, I think Minnesota will be a good fit for him, too, but I wonder how good he has to be on the white board and in interviews that he’s got teams falling all over themselves to draft him. I really wonder how much the Harbaugh stamp of approval and the visual of him winning the championship game is elevating his stock. If Michigan doesn’t win the title, does McCarthy go in the second round? 

[GKnight83]

This is exactly what the Jets need.
A legit WR to work the middle of the field while GW and MW do their damage on the outside.
[/url]  

Can also get Legget (sp?) in the third round who would be a perfect slot guy


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[GKnight83]

I personally believe the Jets are looking for OL help @ 10 or a trade down where they can get a 2nd if they can find a reasonable partner... Best OL 1st & Best WR 2nd. 

In almost every draft sim we’ve run at work I have able to trade down, sometimes more than once, and still end up with Guyton OT at bottom of first, Clemson DT in the second and Legette WR in the third. IMO that is three starters day one


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[Rangers9]

I think the biggest surprise would be a trade up for one of the two top receivers. Or taking a QB at 10. The safest guess is an OL at 10. Trading down if a good offer would be smart but I don't remember JD doing it before in the first round. 

[GKnight83]

I agree here. It has confused me how many folks have Bears going WR when they have needs everywhere and a good skill position group already. Other thoughts:
1) I think it's EXTREMELY likely the Cardinals stay put at 4. They need WR as bad as anyone, and will take MHJ unless he goes at #3. Even then, they'll want Nabers or Odunze, so they can't trade back too far. The giants wouldn't bother trading from 6 to 4 unless the QB they want is there and it becomes a bidding war with a team outside the top 10. Even then, I think the Cardinals move back no further than 6 and take a WR. 
2) No way WAS moves off its pick. They traded Howell, they know they're getting any QB they want besides Williams.
3) Sadly, I believe Alt to TEN is a lock, unless LAC take him first (in which case things might get weird, but TEN may just take a WR). Our best hope to get a WR3 is the Falcons and Bears both taking defensive players, which is not out of the question. 
It's that time of year where mock pros are doing weird things to change it up and get clicks, but don't be fooled. Joe Alt, Dallas Turner, 4-5QBs and 2-3WRs are locked to go ahead of us. Let's hope it's 5 QBs and 2 WRs, or that one more defensive player makes their way in there. 

The 10 spot is a likely a good trade down with either LAC or the Raiders IMO. To a lower confidence in thinking KC or Buffalo may want to move up. Interesting if its KC because we could get their top three picks and maybe more in 2025


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[derp]

1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

Yeah, I think Minnesota will be a good fit for him, too, but I wonder how good he has to be on the white board and in interviews that he’s got teams falling all over themselves to draft him. I really wonder how much the Harbaugh stamp of approval and the visual of him winning the championship game is elevating his stock. If Michigan doesn’t win the title, does McCarthy go in the second round? 

I think that a couple of the drives in the Alabama game really got him there. If they lost in a shootout against Washington I’m not sure anybody would care.

I kind of suspect the Vikings are going bigger game hunting than McCarthy. I don’t think you acquire the second first round pick this year only trying to get up to 4 or 5. They’ve got that little McCown-Maye connection too, I wonder if that’s their guy.

There are what, seven teams in the quarterback market early? It’ll be interesting to see who goes where and who pushes it off. You could theoretically see Vegas or the Giants kick the can down the curb - the Giants moreso probably and nobody’s going to force Payton’s hand in Denver. Somebody’s going to take Nix too.

If you’re the Jets it’d be nice to see the draft go something like Williams-Daniels-Maye (Minnesota)-Harrison-McCarthy (Giants) and see what happens with the Chargers sitting at 6 without likely a huge market to move out unless someone decides they need to get ahead of Tennessee for Alt or they really want a specific WR. It’d be nice to have the Giants out of the WR market and I suspect the Chargers want to go OL.

Could get the same effect with the Commanders trading out to Minnesota and Daniels going to the Pats or the Raiders or Broncos moving up for him. 

[T0mShane]

35 minutes ago, derp said:

I think that a couple of the drives in the Alabama game really got him there. If they lost in a shootout against Washington I’m not sure anybody would care.

I kind of suspect the Vikings are going bigger game hunting than McCarthy. I don’t think you acquire the second first round pick this year only trying to get up to 4 or 5. They’ve got that little McCown-Maye connection too, I wonder if that’s their guy.

There are what, seven teams in the quarterback market early? It’ll be interesting to see who goes where and who pushes it off. You could theoretically see Vegas or the Giants kick the can down the curb - the Giants moreso probably and nobody’s going to force Payton’s hand in Denver. Somebody’s going to take Nix too.

If you’re the Jets it’d be nice to see the draft go something like Williams-Daniels-Maye (Minnesota)-Harrison-McCarthy (Giants) and see what happens with the Chargers sitting at 6 without likely a huge market to move out unless someone decides they need to get ahead of Tennessee for Alt or they really want a specific WR. It’d be nice to have the Giants out of the WR market and I suspect the Chargers want to go OL.

Could get the same effect with the Commanders trading out to Minnesota and Daniels going to the Pats or the Raiders or Broncos moving up for him. 

I can definitely understand moving up for Maye rather than McCarthy, and I can’t understand why Maye would possibly slip, but Minny grabbing him would be a coup. Who’s the guy you’re hoping to drop? Odunze? 

[Beerfish]

2 hours ago, T0mShane said:

McCarthy is going to be this year’s Anthony Richardson for me because I’ll be in absolute denial that he’s going top ten and then he’ll go top five. 

 

Some draft dude on tv today, Matt miller maybe? had Denver trading up to #4 and giving up like 3 first rounders.  It's stupid season again for these gms.  We all know how Zach turned out but coming into the draft to me he was a better prospect than mccarthy is.

[jetsons]

1 hour ago, Rangers9 said:

I think the biggest surprise would be a trade up for one of the two top receivers. Or taking a QB at 10. The safest guess is an OL at 10. Trading down if a good offer would be smart but I don't remember JD doing it before in the first round. 

Being that their Job is truly on the line this year, I really don't see them going in that direction... but we'll all know for sure in a few weeks.