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Red Flag Considerations on Top Jets Targets


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Read to me looks like Nabers and Bowers are the best guys. And Nabers stands a very small chance of being there at 10. That list of OTs with small hands is alarming as well as that I didn’t know Fautanu was that bad in run blocking.

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  • 32EBoozer changed the title to Red Flag Considerations on Top Jets Targets
36 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

Read to me looks like Nabers and Bowers are the best guys. And Nabers stands a very small chance of being there at 10. That list of OTs with small hands is alarming as well as that I didn’t know Fautanu was that bad in run blocking.

Did you read the article on Bowers linked in there? I’m guessing no. 

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11 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I like Nania and think he does good, interesting work.

—Fashanu’s hands are weirdly small, and it’ll be interesting to see what he does as a pro. It’s hard to write off such a good pass blocker because he’s not mean enough in the run game, imo, but there’s also truth to the idea that dominant run blocking forces defenses out of certain personnel groupings, which results in your pass blocking getting easier. If you can just line up your 250 lb designated pass rusher over Fashanu without fear of that resulting in the back ripping off eight yards per carry to that side, that’s a huge advantage for the defense. 

—Vibes-wise, it feels like having a receiver on third and eight who can take some contact and still come down with a catch guarantees you a playoff berth every year. I get the argument that you don’t want receivers who have to rely on contested catches because they’re not getting open consistently, but I wonder if Odunze sees more of those situations because he played in a pro-style passing game that wasn’t scheming him open, and Penix was throwing a lot of back shoulder YOLO stuff at him. 

Great post but especially the stuff in bold.  The difference between success and failure in the NFL feels like it's probably very small. 

For example, if a RB can escape/break one tackle (or be able to turn the corner) and then fall forward, that's the difference between no gain vs like 6 yards.  Those are the types of plays that keep the chains moving.  That's also the reason why QB accuracy is critical (hold the ZW jokes everyone, we've heard them all).  Hitting a WR in stride allows them to gain the extra step (sometimes a lot more!) and fall forward.  Same type of thing.

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18 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I like Nania and think he does good, interesting work.

—Fashanu’s hands are weirdly small, and it’ll be interesting to see what he does as a pro. It’s hard to write off such a good pass blocker because he’s not mean enough in the run game, imo, but there’s also truth to the idea that dominant run blocking forces defenses out of certain personnel groupings, which results in your pass blocking getting easier. If you can just line up your 250 lb designated pass rusher over Fashanu without fear of that resulting in the back ripping off eight yards per carry to that side, that’s a huge advantage for the defense. 

—Vibes-wise, it feels like having a receiver on third and eight who can take some contact and still come down with a catch guarantees you a playoff berth every year. I get the argument that you don’t want receivers who have to rely on contested catches because they’re not getting open consistently, but I wonder if Odunze sees more of those situations because he played in a pro-style passing game that wasn’t scheming him open, and Penix was throwing a lot of back shoulder YOLO stuff at him. 

Very weirdly small, like can’t draft that guy in the first round small.  I want to say his comp is brick but it’s not.  Brick was so technically sound he was just such a natural and even as a decent run blocker his feet were always in the right spot.  Too much risk here.

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17 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Vibes-wise, it feels like having a receiver on third and eight who can take some contact and still come down with a catch guarantees you a playoff berth every year. I get the argument that you don’t want receivers who have to rely on contested catches because they’re not getting open consistently, but I wonder if Odunze sees more of those situations because he played in a pro-style passing game that wasn’t scheming him open, and Penix was throwing a lot of back shoulder YOLO stuff at him. 

I find it difficult to create a red flag out of a valuable trait like winning contested catches. Everything is harder in the pros, and if that’s his bread and butter he’ll have to improve against superior competition like every other draft pick. If it’s somehow a mark against his ability to run routes, I’d think a guy with his athletic profile should be able to master that eventually. 
image.jpeg

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More I read on Bowers the more I think he may very well be the choice at 10 if he is there. Rodgers will need to get the  ball out fast and Bower caught about half his passes behind the lone of scrimmage. Expect a late round WR that could stretch the field as well. 

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1 minute ago, slats said:

I find it difficult to create a red flag out of a valuable trait like winning contested catches. Everything is harder in the pros, and if that’s his bread and butter he’ll have to improve against superior competition like every other draft pick. If it’s somehow a mark against his ability to run routes, I’d think a guy with his athletic profile should be able to master that eventually. 
image.jpeg

Seems unlikely rome falls to even 9.

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8 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

Very weirdly small, like can’t draft that guy in the first round small.  I want to say his comp is brick but it’s not.  Brick was so technically sound he was just such a natural and even as a decent run blocker his feet were always in the right spot.  Too much risk here.

Coincidentally, I think about the conversation surrounding Brick when they’re talking about Fashanu. Both cerebral dudes who were thought to lack that dog in them, but who were both good to great in pass pro. I don’t know, though. I see the trash so many teams run out at OLT and I think that having a dude who’s really good in pass pro is super valuable. That said, the current player who most fits that description is Jawaan Taylor, who kinda sucks. 

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18 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

Very weirdly small, like can’t draft that guy in the first round small.  I want to say his comp is brick but it’s not.  Brick was so technically sound he was just such a natural and even as a decent run blocker his feet were always in the right spot.  Too much risk here.

Coincidentally, I think about the conversation surrounding Brick when they’re talking about Fashanu. Both cerebral dudes who were thought to lack that dog in them, but who were both good to great in pass pro. I don’t know, though. I see the trash so many teams run out at OLT and I think that having a dude who’s really good in pass pro is super valuable. That said, the current player who most fits that description is Jawaan Taylor, who kinda sucks. 

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8 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Coincidentally, I think about the conversation surrounding Brick when they’re talking about Fashanu. Both cerebral dudes who were thought to lack that dog in them, but who were both good to great in pass pro. I don’t know, though. I see the trash so many teams run out at OLT and I think that having a dude who’s really good in pass pro is super valuable. That said, the current player who most fits that description is Jawaan Taylor, who kinda sucks. 

Brick had that perfect LT body, long arms and dancer’s feet.  This guy has unusually small hands and you wonder if that’s ultimately why he is sub par in run blocking.  Of all the OTs projected in round 1, fuaga seems to be the safest, plug and play RT for a decade who brings a nastiness to the team.  Fuaga is the kind of guy you notice when the jets go to pittsburgh and lose 30-6 and give up 220 yards rushing and wonder how is that Pitt line so good, and then you see fuaga steamrolling our reincarnated version of paul Frase. 

 

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20 minutes ago, slats said:

I find it difficult to create a red flag out of a valuable trait like winning contested catches. Everything is harder in the pros, and if that’s his bread and butter he’ll have to improve against superior competition like every other draft pick. If it’s somehow a mark against his ability to run routes, I’d think a guy with his athletic profile should be able to master that eventually. 
image.jpeg

Yeah, and I think Nania acknowledges that he was reaching to find this particular flag. Give me the 6’3” guy who can run but also won’t implode if a CB touches him when the ball is in the air. We’ve had enough Lazards and Justa McGuy’s.

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31 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Great post but especially the stuff in bold.  The difference between success and failure in the NFL feels like it's probably very small. 

For example, if a RB can escape/break one tackle (or be able to turn the corner) and then fall forward, that's the difference between no gain vs like 6 yards.  Those are the types of plays that keep the chains moving.  That's also the reason why QB accuracy is critical (hold the ZW jokes everyone, we've heard them all).  Hitting a WR in stride allows them to gain the extra step (sometimes a lot more!) and fall forward.  Same type of thing.

Hidden yardage is huge, and having an unnamed bad QB really shows you how that impacts a game. Taking a bad sack when you didn’t need to, missing a receiver by a foot (or three) on a crossing route, the back missing the sliver of a running lane that could’ve resulted in a better gain. Really the difference between winning and losing in a league where every game ends up 21-17. 

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Just now, T0mShane said:

I remember when I was in deep, dark love with Mike White and I was looking at his stats when everyone was trashing his “weak” arm. You know who was always right there with his depth of target and short accuracy? Pat Mahomes. There’s a lot to be said for matriculating the ball down the field when you have to. 

Also makes me wonder if a lot of the criticisms of bowers are overblown b/c completing a short pass to a guy who has a knack for getting in space and then having him run for a first down seems safer than having some deer in headlights zach wilson type trying to figure out which defender is going where and if he should throw that pass or run backwards for another 15 yards.  Get the ball out to guys who can create. 

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If we don't trade down or up it'll be one of these guys and they all can make us better:

Bowers

Odunze

Nabers

Fashanu

Fautanu

Fuaga

Latham

I don't see myself being unhappy with any of these guys, and thats a good position to be in.

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22 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Hidden yardage is huge, and having an unnamed bad QB really shows you how that impacts a game. Taking a bad sack when you didn’t need to, missing a receiver by a foot (or three) on a crossing route, the back missing the sliver of a running lane that could’ve resulted in a better gain. Really the difference between winning and losing in a league where every game ends up 21-17. 

 

Quote

Hidden yardage is huge

I think they use that terminology more for special teams but we can work with it.

Quote

having an unnamed bad QB really shows you how that impacts a game. Taking a bad sack when you didn’t need to, missing a receiver by a foot (or three) on a crossing route, the back missing the sliver of a running lane that could’ve resulted in a better gain

If that unnamed QB was in his 1st 2 years in the league then I would agree with you.  But if that unnamed QB gets a lot more accurate in year 3, but has a bottom-tier OL, along with a WR group that includes a punt returner as his WR2 then isn't it a bit unfair to blame it all on the QB?  Especially if the next offseason, the GM (knowing he's got a HOF QB returning) replaces 3 starting OL and the WR2 before unnamed team has even arrived at draft day.

 

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ooof this list

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The history of tackles with hands this small is not promising. Here are the tackles over the past five drafts who measured with hands smaller than 9.5 inches:

  • 2023: Jaelyn Duncan (9.38)
  • 2023: Carter Warren (9.13)
  • 2023: Darnell Wright (9.00)
  • 2023: Connor Galvin (9.00)
  • 2022: Austin Decelus (9.25)
  • 2022: Dare Rosenthal (9.00)
  • 2021: Chandon Herring (9.25)
  • 2021: Dillon Radunz (9.125)
  • 2020: Tony Brown (9.25)
  • 2020: Ezra Cleveland (9.00)
  • 2020: Ben Bartch (9.00)
  • 2019: Kendall Baker (9.375)
  • 2019: Jackson Barton (9.25)
  • 2019: Alex Bookser (9.125)

Over the last 10 drafts, only three tackle prospects with hands smaller than 9.5 inches have earned any post-season honors:

  • Brian O’Neill, Vikings, 2018 second-round pick, 9.375 inches – 2021 Pro Bowl
  • Garett Bolles, Broncos, 2017 first-round pick, 9.375 inches – 2020 Second-Team All-Pro
  • Taylor Lewan, Titans, 2014 first-round pick, 9.25 inches – 3x Pro Bowl

Scared Kermit The Frog GIF

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1 hour ago, Bobby816 said:

Read to me looks like Nabers and Bowers are the best guys. And Nabers stands a very small chance of being there at 10. That list of OTs with small hands is alarming as well as that I didn’t know Fautanu was that bad in run blocking.

I just keep thinking back to everyone saying Linderbaum's arms were too short, and he's become a very good center very quickly for Baltimore.

If you are thinking, "I was gonna draft this guy top 10, but his hands were an inch too small"

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45 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

Brick had that perfect LT body, long arms and dancer’s feet.  This guy has unusually small hands and you wonder if that’s ultimately why he is sub par in run blocking.  Of all the OTs projected in round 1, fuaga seems to be the safest, plug and play RT for a decade who brings a nastiness to the team.  Fuaga is the kind of guy you notice when the jets go to pittsburgh and lose 30-6 and give up 220 yards rushing and wonder how is that Pitt line so good, and then you see fuaga steamrolling our reincarnated version of paul Frase. 

And his glorious head of hair!      @JustInFudge

PaulFrase.png.439c1f755c0d805251b0566f1261a858.png

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10 minutes ago, 68JET11 said:

He's going to be perfect pick for the GINTS.!!!, so the JETS can get Odonze..

Nabers and Harrison will both be pains in the asses to deal with. Odunze would be ideal but doubtful he drops.

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2 hours ago, 32EBoozer said:

Very interesting read. 

https://jetsxfactor.com/2024/04/12/ny-jets-red-flags-stats-draft-targets/

Curious to get everyone’s feedback.

Good read.

- Nabers hands are not a red flag.  The red flag is he's never seen press coverage and maybe it's not a huge red flag but there isnt many examples of Nabers beating a physical CB at the LOS.  He had tons of free breaks w/ sometimes as deep as 10 yards cushions.  Granted, he often still blew by those dudes in many situations but its going to be different in the league.

- Dude is reaching for a knock on Odunze, to take a strength and spin it to a weakness even though its a strong indicator of success in the league is next level stupid draft has jumped the shark garbage that makes me want to puke and get this F'ing thing over w/ already.

- All of these OT's are JAG prospects been saying it since day 1.

- The Bowers tear down has been pretty insane to watch over the past few weeks.  I think I saw someone talking about he's not that good because look at his game log or something the other day.  lol  Now this dude is saying he's scheme dependent while completely ignoring the fact he had a new OC this season and his old offensive coordinator who had him looking like the best player in the country, just led Lamar Jackson to his second MVP trophy. 

 

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6 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

Also, this QB class stinks. Caleb will get everyone fired. I hope the Patriots on the heels of firing the best coach of all time select Maye or Daniels too.

 

I'm actually kind of excited to see this thing implode in Chicago when the Steelers win a SB or two in the next 5 years w/ Justin Fields. 

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6 minutes ago, JustInFudge said:

I'm actually kind of excited to see this thing implode in Chicago when the Steelers win a SB or two in the next 5 years w/ Justin Fields. 

He’ll get every chance 

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19 minutes ago, JustInFudge said:

All of these OT's are JAG prospects been saying it since day 1.

I'm leaning toward Fuaga and Fautanu being elite when it's all said and done 

and there's alot of interesting depth (Kingsley, Kiren etc) 

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