How good is Garrett Wilson?

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

I’m really hoping we can replace the Zach Wilson thread at the top of the forum.

How about Garrett Wilson?  The advanced stats show he is elite in getting open, even though he faced the most double teams .. and had some of the worst QB drag down his numbers.  

Jetsxfactor posted some compelling success stats that show he is at or above the 93%tile on all route concepts except flat routes (is that even a route?).

In fact, he’s in ‘superstar’ company when it comes to winning vs man, press AND zone coverage.

Exciting stuff!  The guy is set up for a MONSTER year provided the rest of the offense stays healthy.  

[Barry McCockinner]

Him and CeeDee Lamb are going to make an elite combo

[BigRy56]

I think Wilson is a great WR that any team would be happy to have but I'm not sure he can truly take over a game the way some of your top 5 alpha WRs can. We're going to find out a lot about who G5 really is this year with above-average QB play

[Joe W. Namath]

Nobody knows.  So far, hes pretty good considering his qb situation.  Dropped too many balls last year so he has to clean that up.

Now that he has a real qb throwing him the ball, we will get to find out how good he is.

[Warfish]

Quote

How good is Garrett Wilson?

More than good enough.

[ncjetman]

I think Wilson is a great WR that any team would be happy to have but I'm not sure he can truly take over a game the way some of your top 5 alpha WRs can. We're going to find out a lot about who G5 really is this year with above-average QB play

i think he will prove he can take over games but your point is totally valid - let’s see him do it - this could be an all time great jets season!


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[Warfish]

25 minutes ago, Joe W. Namath said:

Dropped too many balls last year so he has to clean that up.

Wilson was the 4th highest in the NFL in targets (168) in 2023, and tied with 11 guys for 11th in the NFL in gross drops (7).

Wilson's drop percentage in 2023 was 4.2%.

Wilson's drop percentage ranked him as tied with 2 other guys for the 77th worst out of 139 eligible receivers in 2023.

His drop rate of 4.2% was lower than the NY Jets teamwide drop percentage of 4.7%.

The Jets finished 16th in the NFL in drop percentage with that number, pretty much dead middle of the NFL.

Only Conklin (2.3% on 87 targets) and Gipson (2.6% on 38 targets) were better than Wilson on the Jets.

I believe you've complained about his drops several times this offseason, drops aren't a major issue for Wilson.  As his numbers show.  He's spectacularly average in terms of how many drops he had last year.  

All stats courtesy of:  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2023/receiving_advanced.htm

[Barry McCockinner]

12 minutes ago, Joe W. Namath said:

Dropped too many balls last year so he has to clean that up.

 

when compared to his peers he drops relatively few balls. guys getting the number of targets he does will have some drops. it happens.

[bicketybam]

He needs to start catching TD's. 3 last year and 4 the year before. Have to do better than that.

[Claymation]

How good do you want him to be?

He can be bad as well, but it is going to cost you.

[Warfish]

1 minute ago, bicketybam said:

He needs to start catching TD's. 3 last year and 4 the year before. Have to do better than that.

We only had 11 TD receptions for the whole team last year.  And only 15 total the year before.

He's been accounting for ~ 30% of our TD catches. 

If we extrapolate to having a QB who throws 30 TD passes, it's reasonable to expect that Wilson might have ~8-9 of those.

But we haven't had that kind of QB'ing in his tenure here.

We just need better QB play and more passing TD's overall.  I don't think this is a problem specific to him personally.

 

[nycdan]

Why did GW have so few TD catches last year? 

Let's review:

Now to be fair, GW was possibly a worse QB than ZW

 

[FidelioJet]

He's pretty good.

I suspect he'll be a top 10. 

If he had a high end QB could be a top 5.

[The Crusher]

2 hours ago, Joe W. Namath said:

Nobody knows.  So far, hes pretty good considering his qb situation.  Dropped too many balls last year so he has to clean that up.

Now that he has a real qb throwing him the ball, we will get to find out how good he is.

Not much more to it.  But him winning OROY in spite garbage disposal QB play might be our first hint though. 

[Joe W. Namath]

3 hours ago, Warfish said:

Wilson was the 4th highest in the NFL in targets (168) in 2023, and tied with 11 guys for 11th in the NFL in gross drops (7).

Wilson's drop percentage in 2023 was 4.2%.

Wilson's drop percentage ranked him as tied with 2 other guys for the 77th worst out of 139 eligible receivers in 2023.

His drop rate of 4.2% was lower than the NY Jets teamwide drop percentage of 4.7%.

The Jets finished 16th in the NFL in drop percentage with that number, pretty much dead middle of the NFL.

Only Conklin (2.3% on 87 targets) and Gipson (2.6% on 38 targets) were better than Wilson on the Jets.

I believe you've complained about his drops several times this offseason, drops aren't a major issue for Wilson.  As his numbers show.  He's spectacularly average in terms of how many drops he had last year.  

All stats courtesy of:  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2023/receiving_advanced.htm

Not all drops are equal.  He had bad ones.

He needs to clean that up.  Even he would tell you that.

[Jet_Engine1]

4 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Him and CeeDee Lamb are going to make an elite combo

Don't taunt me with this. 

[PepPep]

Am I the only one who thinks GW is NOT set up for a monster season? I mean, listen, I think if AR stays healthy he will have a good, possibly great season. But he's not nec. 'set up' for a monster year. He may just have a great year DESPITE how this offense is set up. 

It looks like this team is gearing up to run the ball down team's throats and play stout defense. Not air it out. I'm assuming using this strategy to keep opposing offenses (AFC QBs) off the field, resting their defense and most importantly, protecting AR. They have Breece coming back healthy and they drafted two big, strong RBs. They have a powerful vet o-line and they are switching to a gap scheme. They will run the ball. 

This team added two receiving weapons who will most likely be on the field at the same time as GW - Williams and Corley. You could argue that will make things easier for GW, but I think it will take targets away from him. My guess is a vet QB like ARod will spread the ball around rather than force-feed GW. This team will not be about who gets the targets. It will be about winning. My guess is Breece and Conklin will get a lot more targets than people think. 

I do think he will have considerably more TDs.  

[bicketybam]

3 hours ago, Warfish said:

We only had 11 TD receptions for the whole team last year.  And only 15 total the year before.

He's been accounting for ~ 30% of our TD catches. 

If we extrapolate to having a QB who throws 30 TD passes, it's reasonable to expect that Wilson might have ~8-9 of those.

But we haven't had that kind of QB'ing in his tenure here.

We just need better QB play and more passing TD's overall.  I don't think this is a problem specific to him personally.

 

The Bears QB room threw 19 TD passes last season and D.J. Moore caught 8 of them. That 42% of all TD receptions. He also caught 96 passes on 136 targets for 1,364 yards. And while my stance on Justin Fields has soften a bit, no one is going to confuse him with an accurate passer of the football.

So again, I'd like to see Wilson be more of a threat to score. I'm afraid he's just not that guy though. 

[Jet Nut]

4 hours ago, BigRy56 said:

I think Wilson is a great WR that any team would be happy to have but I'm not sure he can truly take over a game the way some of your top 5 alpha WRs can. We're going to find out a lot about who G5 really is this year with above-average QB play

What does he lack in his game that others not named Megatron or Moss types have?  

[Warfish]

11 minutes ago, bicketybam said:

So again, I'd like to see Wilson be more of a threat to score. I'm afraid he's just not that guy though. 

Guess we’ll see. 

[bicketybam]

3 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Guess we’ll see. 

We will. He looked great in that preseason game against the Giants last year. Rodgers dropped a dime on him in the end zone. That's where I think he will get his touchdowns. But I don't think it will be from outside of 30 yards. I'd love a true burner with great hands.

[The Crusher]

42 minutes ago, Joe W. Namath said:

Not all drops are equal.  He had bad ones.

He needs to clean that up.  Even he would tell you that.

Yes, receivers should drop the ball less, this is something we can all agree on. 

[Jetsfan80]

8 hours ago, PepPep said:

Am I the only one who thinks GW is NOT set up for a monster season? I mean, listen, I think if AR stays healthy he will have a good, possibly great season. But he's not nec. 'set up' for a monster year. He may just have a great year DESPITE how this offense is set up. 

It looks like this team is gearing up to run the ball down team's throats and play stout defense. Not air it out. I'm assuming using this strategy to keep opposing offenses (AFC QBs) off the field, resting their defense and most importantly, protecting AR. They have Breece coming back healthy and they drafted two big, strong RBs. They have a powerful vet o-line and they are switching to a gap scheme. They will run the ball. 

This team added two receiving weapons who will most likely be on the field at the same time as GW - Williams and Corley. You could argue that will make things easier for GW, but I think it will take targets away from him. My guess is a vet QB like ARod will spread the ball around rather than force-feed GW. This team will not be about who gets the targets. It will be about winning. My guess is Breece and Conklin will get a lot more targets than people think. 

I do think he will have considerably more TDs.  

Doesn’t really matter if we’re run-heavy.  Wilson will still get peppered with targets.  Rodgers loves hammering the ball to his WR1.

It’s the other receivers that won’t see a ton of targets.  This offense will be all about Rodgers feeding Wilson and Breece.

[slats]

The X factor will be the X receiver. Last year, Lazard was the team’s #2 WR with a paltry 311 yards on 23 receptions. The team’s only legitimate targets outside of Wilson were Breece and the savagely underrated Conklin. If Mike Williams can step in and be something close to a 60/800 guy -which would be below his recent four year average- that will open up a lot of opportunities for Wilson, especially if Williams is getting deep and needs some safety attention, himself. Corley and/or an improved Gipson getting more production from the slot wouldn’t hurt, either. If defenses can’t singularly focus on Wilson, the ceiling is extremely high as to what he can do this year with Rodgers throwing him the ball. 

[doitny]

15 hours ago, Warfish said:

Wilson was the 4th highest in the NFL in targets (168) in 2023, and tied with 11 guys for 11th in the NFL in gross drops (7).

Wilson's drop percentage in 2023 was 4.2%.

Wilson's drop percentage ranked him as tied with 2 other guys for the 77th worst out of 139 eligible receivers in 2023.

His drop rate of 4.2% was lower than the NY Jets teamwide drop percentage of 4.7%.

The Jets finished 16th in the NFL in drop percentage with that number, pretty much dead middle of the NFL.

Only Conklin (2.3% on 87 targets) and Gipson (2.6% on 38 targets) were better than Wilson on the Jets.

I believe you've complained about his drops several times this offseason, drops aren't a major issue for Wilson.  As his numbers show.  He's spectacularly average in terms of how many drops he had last year.  

All stats courtesy of:  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2023/receiving_advanced.htm

its weird how this works because he caught only 56.5% of the passes thrown to him which ranks him 86th among WRs.

he had 95 catches on 168 targets. thats 73 passes that he did not catch. yet he dropped only 7 passes.

i guess they count balls thrown to him that he doesnt get his hands on? contested catches maybe.? 

maybe its like baseball where the official scorer gives one guy an error and one guy a hit. like if a pass touches him but the scorer thinks it was a tough catch so doesnt give him a drop but thats still a target? IDK.

i blame the QBs 100% of this but going forward he cant catch half the passes thrown to him and be a great WR.

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, doitny said:

its weird how this works because he caught only 56.5% of the passes thrown to him which ranks him 86th among WRs.

he had 95 catches on 168 targets. thats 73 passes that he did not catch. yet he dropped only 7 passes.

i guess they count balls thrown to him that he doesnt get his hands on? contested catches maybe.? 

maybe its like baseball where the official scorer gives one guy an error and one guy a hit. like if a pass touches him but the scorer thinks it was a tough catch so doesnt give him a drop but thats still a target? IDK.

i blame the QBs 100% of this but going forward he cant catch half the passes thrown to him and be a great WR.

lol what?  No, dude.  Any throw intended for Garrett counts as a “target”.  His catch % thus shouldn’t really even be looked at given who was throwing it in his general direction.  

[Warfish]

2 hours ago, doitny said:

its weird how this works because he caught only 56.5% of the passes thrown to him which ranks him 86th among WRs.

he had 95 catches on 168 targets. thats 73 passes that he did not catch. yet he dropped only 7 passes.

i guess they count balls thrown to him that he doesnt get his hands on? contested catches maybe.? 

maybe its like baseball where the official scorer gives one guy an error and one guy a hit. like if a pass touches him but the scorer thinks it was a tough catch so doesnt give him a drop but thats still a target? IDK.

i blame the QBs 100% of this but going forward he cant catch half the passes thrown to him and be a great WR.

There are several possible outcomes of any "target" of a WR:

1. Reception
2. Drop
3. QB Miss
4. Pass Defensed
5. Penalty

If that stats show a 56.5% catch rate, and a 4.2% drop rate, then the remaining 39.3% of targets would fall under the other two categories.  (Since penalties don't count as stats/plays if accepted, I think we can ignore them here).

Given Zach Wilson's 30th ranked completion percentage in 2023 (60.1%, 3rd worst in the NFL) I'd wager a goodly portion of that remaining 39.3% of non-reception outcomes would simply be poor/inaccurate passes, but surely some portion were also contested passes that were successfully defended (open question would be if those contested passes were mostly the fault of the QB or the WR, of course, and no stat tracks that far as I am aware).

[doitny]

2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

lol what?  No, dude.  Any throw intended for Garrett counts as a “target”.  His catch % thus shouldn’t really even be looked at given who was throwing it in his general direction.  

 

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

There are several possible outcomes of any "target" of a WR:

1. Reception
2. Drop
3. QB Miss
4. Pass Defensed
5. Penalty

If that stats show a 56.5% catch rate, and a 4.2% drop rate, then the remaining 39.3% of targets would fall under the other two categories.  (Since penalties don't count as stats/plays if accepted, I think we can ignore them here).

Given Zach Wilson's 30th ranked completion percentage in 2023 (60.1%, 3rd worst in the NFL) I'd wager a goodly portion of that remaining 39.3% of non-reception outcomes would simply be poor/inaccurate passes, but surely some portion were also contested passes that were successfully defended (open question would be if those contested passes were mostly the fault of the QB or the WR, of course, and no stat tracks that far as I am aware).

i think you guys are right. but it kind of unfair for the WR when Zach throws a ball that bounces in front of you or over your head. that's a uncatchable pass. but the closet receiver is for all intended purposes the "target" of that pass.

 

[varjet]

I would like to see someone comp GW against other top WRs and see where he ranks.  He feels like someone who is 6-10, maybe at the higher end of that range (9-10).    Has not really taken over games, but will be great to see how he plays with a better QB.  

I am surprised he went after Drake London.  Watching him in college I knew that his route running would translate well to the NFL.  

[Warfish]

18 minutes ago, doitny said:

 

i think you guys are right. but it kind of unfair for the WR when Zach throws a ball that bounces in front of you or over your head. that's a uncatchable pass. but the closet receiver is for all intended purposes the "target" of that pass.

 

No disagreement, but the NFL is full of "unfair" stats.

1. Aaron Rodgers is awarded the "win" for the game vs. Buffalo in week 1 last year.  Because he started, and NFL stats sites track "games won/lost as starter", as there is no official win or loss stat for QB's, unlike MLB.

2. A QB is awarded an Interception even if the ball hits his wide-open WR square in the chest and hands, but deflects up in the air and comes down in an opponents hands. 

There are tons more, but these two always bugged me most of all.

The NFL isn't MLB, we fans should remember that, the stats in the NFL are very useful for analysis, but they are not everything on their own without some context.  Not an excuse for the excuse-makers who think context can excuse every bad-producing player, but context is of value too.

[Jetsfan80]

44 minutes ago, Warfish said:

No disagreement, but the NFL is full of "unfair" stats.

1. Aaron Rodgers is awarded the "win" for the game vs. Buffalo in week 1 last year.  Because he started, and NFL stats sites track "games won/lost as starter", as there is no official win or loss stat for QB's, unlike MLB.

2. A QB is awarded an Interception even if the ball hits his wide-open WR square in the chest and hands, but deflects up in the air and comes down in an opponents hands. 

There are tons more, but these two always bugged me most of all.

The NFL isn't MLB, we fans should remember that, the stats in the NFL are very useful for analysis, but they are not everything on their own without some context.  Not an excuse for the excuse-makers who think context can excuse every bad-producing player, but context is of value too.

 

That's of course where sample size is important, as these situations happen pretty often in the NFL, especially the 2nd on you listed. 

People used to complain that Mark Sanchez was viewed unfairly because of all the WR drops he "suffered", while ignoring the many times defensive backs dropped gift-wrapped INTs.  In the end, it all evened out and it was clear Sanchez sucked regardless of what his WRs and opposing DBs were doing.  Just as its super clear that Zach Wilson sucks and Garrett Wilson is very, very good (potentially elite).

[JohnnyLV]

17 hours ago, PepPep said:

Am I the only one who thinks GW is NOT set up for a monster season? I mean, listen, I think if AR stays healthy he will have a good, possibly great season. But he's not nec. 'set up' for a monster year. He may just have a great year DESPITE how this offense is set up. 

It looks like this team is gearing up to run the ball down team's throats and play stout defense. Not air it out. I'm assuming using this strategy to keep opposing offenses (AFC QBs) off the field, resting their defense and most importantly, protecting AR. They have Breece coming back healthy and they drafted two big, strong RBs. They have a powerful vet o-line and they are switching to a gap scheme. They will run the ball. 

This team added two receiving weapons who will most likely be on the field at the same time as GW - Williams and Corley. You could argue that will make things easier for GW, but I think it will take targets away from him. My guess is a vet QB like ARod will spread the ball around rather than force-feed GW. This team will not be about who gets the targets. It will be about winning. My guess is Breece and Conklin will get a lot more targets than people think. 

I do think he will have considerably more TDs.  

People here are 100% expecting MVP Rodgers ignoring the fact that he was clearly declining and even before the injury looked shaky on the other 3 snaps. With the Achilles we have no idea what we will get a QB. People seem to be gleefully ignoring that outside a few QBs most QBs drop off a cliff in terms of capability around 38.  And we could easily be onto Jordan Travis or even Peaseley by the end of the season because our OL is very questionable (again) from a durability standpoint.

[RutgersJetFan]

Reception Perception would be a really cool name for a Pink Floyd song.

[Maxman]

If he can break 1,000 yards with no QB, the upside is immense with Rodgers.

[bicketybam]

9 minutes ago, JohnnyLV said:

People here are 100% expecting MVP Rodgers 

No they're not. This is utter nonsense.