26 replies to this topic

[Jet27]

how about we don't look at drafting another QB and trade for one instead?

I think at this point in time that may be the best considering our window is rapidly closing with the current players we have.

[Sperm Edwards]

the draft is a crapshoot. Besides making a bad pick, the systemic problem is one of expectations. Jets fans think a 5 pick is the same as a 1 pick. If you want a 1 pick you have to make a 1 pick. Taking Sanchez and pretending he's Eli is not gonna work.

freeman is a mid-late 1 like Aaron Rodgers, Chad or Tebow. There's a huge range of outcomes with late 1 QBs, most of which are not good.

my point is if we look at the QBs who are picked at 5 overall (or in that neighborhood) it's a very different list than the Qb's that are picked at one. Sanchez might go on to have a career like Dilfer or Kerry Collins. That's still possible. Or he could crap out like Joey Harrington.

Jets fans expected him to be John Elway or Peyton Manning but he was never that type of prospect.

Rodgers falling was a bigger surprise than if he'd gone in the top 3.

Sanchez was a legit first round graded prospect but he wasn't a top-5 type. Jets traded that high out of desperation.

If Sanchez had gotten drafted outside the top 10 (or even outside the top 15-20) it would have been less surprising than the drop Rodgers or Quinn had, would have been less surprising than if Young had gone #15-20 instead of #3, or Leinart dropping from a supposed lock #1-2 pick to #10.

Your theory also falls apart when there are as many #3-10 successes as #1 successes.

For every #1 Eli, Luck, Peyton, Palmer, Stafford, and others, there are an equal amount of #1 overall pick QBs that didn't sniff at their expectations (or outright flopped)

#1 Alex Smith
#1 David Carr
#1 Jamarcus Russell
#1 Tim Couch
#1 Sam Bradford (looked really good as a rookie; meh since then)

After pick #1? You're reaching to suggest there is a pattern:

#2 Donovan McNabb
#2 Ryan Leaf
#2 RGIII (only half of 1 season but so far so good I think we'd all agree)

#3 Matt Ryan
#3 Steve McNair
#3 Joey Harrington
#3 Akili Smith

#4 Rivers
#5 Sanchez
#5 Collins
#6 Dilfer
#6 Klingler

#11 Rape
#10 Leinart
#10 Culpepper
#11 McNown

#17 Freeman
#18 Pennington
#19 Boller

#24 Rodgers
#25 Tebow
#22 Quinn
#25 Campbell
#22 Losman
#22 Grossman

#32 Patrick Ramsey
#32 Drew Brees


There is no "pattern" unless you want to cherry pick certain players and ignore others with the benefit of hindsight. It's as random as random can be. You either pick a good one or you pick a mediocre one or you pick a bad one. It's the player you picked, not the # he was picked at.

The only thing I think we'd all agree with is that generally the higher the pick (half round to half round, or full round to full round) the better the likelihood of the player panning out (at the same position). A 3rd round pick is likely to be a better player than a 5th round pick, etc. But the #22 pick is not generally more likely to be a stud than the #21 or the #23 pick.

[T0mShane]

the draft is a crapshoot. Besides making a bad pick, the systemic problem is one of expectations. Jets fans think a 5 pick is the same as a 1 pick. If you want a 1 pick you have to make a 1 pick. Taking Sanchez and pretending he's Eli is not gonna work.

dude, I love you, but this is the weirdest canard you've ever foisted upon us, ever.

Top Ten QBs in league:

1. Rodgers--24th overall
2. Brady--Sixth round
3. Eli--First overall
4. Roethlisberger--twelfth overall
5. Brees--Second round
6. Peyton--First overall
7. Matt Ryan--Third overall
8. Schaub--Third Round
9. Romo--UDFA
10. RGIII/Cutler/Stafford

Edited by T0mShane, 02 November 2012 - 04:32 AM.

[THE ILK]

The important thing to remember about Sanchez's imminent demise here: it's a complete institutional failure. This isn't just about one guy being a bad football player, or a team making a bad pick. This is about an owner looking for a marketable entity; a GM that traded up to draft a player with a significant bust factor attached to him: and a coaching staff, led by holdovers who had already failed with Clemens, completely f*cking up the development process of the player. Don't let them sell you the "draft is a crapshoot" narrative. This is bigger than that.

You should really include your beeper # in your sig, and an ad for some play.

Like by 5 rocks get 1 free.

[THE ILK]

dude, I love you, but this is the weirdest canard you've ever foisted upon us, ever.

Top Ten QBs in league:

1. Rodgers--24th overall
2. Brady--Sixth round
3. Eli--First overall
4. Roethlisberger--twelfth overall
5. Brees--Second round
6. Peyton--First overall
7. Matt Ryan--Third overall
8. Schaub--Fourth Round
9. Romo--UDFA
10. RGIII/Cutler/Stafford

Or at least open up a liquor store.

Shane's

[Il Mostro]

After the Sanchez debacle, I would be as happy as a pig in $hit with an experienced retread like Hasslebeck.

[Joe Jets fan]

We might have had a good replacement on the roster if we did not have to trade for Tebow so we could sell more seats.

Edited by Joe Jets fan, 01 November 2012 - 10:23 PM.