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Mayock: Bad Year To Own a Top 10 pick


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#1 flgreen

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 12:41 PM


Mayock: Bad year to own a top-10 pick

February, 19, 2013
Feb 19

11:00

AM ET

By Rich Cimini | ESPNNewYork.com


NFL Network draft guru Mike Mayock held an epic conference call Monday, answering questions about this week's scouting combine and the upcoming draft. For the record, the Q & A session was 22,753 words, based on the transcript provided by the network.

From a Jets perspective, here are some of my takeaways:

1. It's a bad year to have the ninth overall pick; typical Jets luck. Said Mayock: "I wouldn't want a top-10 pick this year. I think the fifth pick in the draft and the 25th pick in this draft are very similar."

2. The Jets need a guard, maybe two, and there's a stud that could be available at No. 9 -- Alabama's Chance Warmack. Mayock called him "the best player I saw on tape this year," and he wouldn't hesitate to pick him in the top 10.

3. Mayock doesn't believe any quarterbacks are worth the No. 9 pick. He expects West Virginia's Geno Smith and USC's Matt Barkley will be the first two off the board, but he sees them in the 20 to 32 range. Mayock on Smith: "I see flashes of everything you want in a top-10 quarterback. I see a lot more inconsistency, though, than I see those flashes."

4. The Jets met with North Carolina State QB Mike Glennon at the Senior Bowl. He "might have the best arm talent in the draft," according to Mayock. But he has a slow release and makes poor decisions, Mayock said. He sees him in the second round.

5. To me, Oregon DE/OLB Dion Jordan is one of the most intriguing players. He's 6-foot-7, but only 240 pounds. He has "frightening athletic skills," according to Mayock, who believes Jordan can be a perennial All-Pro if he adds 20 pounds. He said Jordan is "two years away from being an Aldon Smith-type player." Jordan doesn't have ideal weight to be an every-down linebacker in Rex Ryan's 3-4 scheme, but I know the Jets were high on Smith when he came out in 2011.

6. Georgia OLB Jarvis Jones, who has been linked to the Jets, is an "impact, explosive football player and he's ready to play now," Mayock said. But there's a medical concern, possible spinal stenonsis. He's a top-10 talent if he checks out medically, per Mayock.

7. Mayock has only one running back with a first-round grade -- Alabama's Eddie Lacy. He rates Wisconsin's Montee Ball as a late 2.

8. Mayock goes against the grain with regard to his grades for three top defensive ends -- Bjoern Werner (Florida State), Damonte Moore (Texas A&M) and Barkevious Mingo (LSU). He doesn't think Werner and Moore are worth top-10 picks, and he sees Mingo (only 230 pounds) slipping to the end of the first round. Mingo has been linked to the Jets at No. 9, but I don't think he's a scheme fit because of his size.

9. I don't see the Jets picking controversial Notre Dame LB Manti Te'o at No. 9, but we'll mention him here because Mayock had some interesting comments. He said Te'o had a "plus-plus-plus intangibles grade" before the girlfriend hoax became a national story. Now? "I think he's lost all of that," said Mayock, who sees Te'o going in the bottom third of the first round.


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#2 JiF

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 12:51 PM

I agree with Mayock 100%.  He's echoing a lot of opinions stated on this board. 

 

The Jets have a top 10 pick in a year where the difference between 10 and their 2nd round pick is minimal.  In a way, thats a good thing but I just dont see a ton of "superstars", in this draft.

 

Warmack and Jones IMO are the way to go, no doubt about it (assuming one is available).  Hate, hate!, taking an interior OL that early but if Warmack is another Hutchinson...then do it.  If Jones is there, no brainer, get your stud and move on to the 2nd.

 

I wouldnt touch a RB or WR in this draft till the 3rd round and that might be too early.  QB too.  

 

Sucks, but thats the Jets luck.  I blame Rex Ryan and God but mostly Rex.


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#3 Matt39

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 12:54 PM

Drafting Warmack and a back that can start right away is the quickest way back into the playoffs....especially if Revis is back.

 

Long term would be scouting the hell out of the pass rushers and taking the best one.


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#4 JiF

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 01:03 PM

Drafting Warmack and a back that can start right away is the quickest way back into the playoffs....especially if Revis is back.

 

Long term would be scouting the hell out of the pass rushers and taking the best one.

 

In my mind, the ideal draft would have Jones falling to the Jets and the Jets taking the BAP OG in the 2nd.  I'd like to know what he see's between Warford, Long and Winters.  Because ideally, you can nab them in the 2nd and start from day 1.

 

For a while I really liked the TE in the 2nd (Eifert or Ertz), but think you can get an Escobar, Kelce or Reed in the mid rounds and get similar production.

 

OLB, G, TE/WR, RB - thats how I'd address this draft, assuming the draft falls that way.  


Edited by JiF, 19 February 2013 - 09:49 PM.

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#5 JetsFanInDenver

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 01:03 PM

It would be great if we could draft down. But now sure if there is a compeling reason for any team to trade up to the 9th spot.


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#6 JiF

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 01:06 PM

It would be great if we could draft down. But now sure if there is a compeling reason for any team to trade up to the 9th spot.

 

Exactly.  Trading down is great and all but who and what are they trading up for?


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#7 flgreen

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 01:16 PM

Exactly.  Trading down is great and all but who and what are they trading up for?

The only player I could see a team trading up for is Geno Smith.  

 

Some where there is a GM who is in love with him, for some reason, missed the second half of the season, and the Pinstripe bowl.  Thinks he is RG III all over again.

 

Problem with this logic is that if there were a GM nutty enough to follow this line he would do it at 7, not 9.  Both the Bills and Jets need QB's.  So there goes that.

 

I like your draft stratedgy.  Only change I would make would be E J Manual in the 3rd if he is there


Edited by flgreen, 19 February 2013 - 01:18 PM.

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#8 T0mShane

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 01:27 PM

I agree with Mayock 100%. He's echoing a lot of opinions stated on this board.


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#9 Stonehands

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 01:33 PM

I agree with Mayock 100%.  He's echoing a lot of opinions stated on this board. 

 

So, Mayock is no better than the collection of dumb asses on here (me included)?


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#10 CrazyCarl40

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 01:48 PM

If Jones checks out medically he won't be there at nine, which is fine.  I have yet to decide who we should take there yet, but no QBs or skill position players at the least.


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#11 JiF

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 01:54 PM

So, Mayock is no better than the collection of dumb asses on here (me included)?

 

Pretty much. ;-)

 

Nah, I actually like Mayock.  He's my favorite of them all but him, just like anyone else he has some big misses.  I think he literally said he saw footage of Coples that would make him undraftable.  Loved Sanchez.  Some others too...but overall, he's the best IMO.


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#12 Bleedin Green

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 01:56 PM

I don't think this is nearly the issue it would have previously been given the new rookie contract structure.  In the old days you would be royally screwed but now who really cares?  If there's someone you really like who you would normally have graded lower in the round, you can try to trade down, but if that doesn't work out?  Who cares, take the guy you like the best.  There's no more issue of getting saddled with these humongous contracts that you have no idea what you are going to do with if the player doesn't work out.  Take who you have graded as the BPA and move on.  These days, all the higher pick really does is help decrease the odds that someone will swoop in and take your guy, while also potentially giving you the chance to move down and accumulate picks.

 


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#13 Apache 51

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 09:44 PM

Trade 9 for 2 picks.


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#14 BroadwayJoe12

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 10:23 PM

I love Mayock, he's my best of the talking heads, but his analysis of defensive backs is the only thing worth taking as gold; he's pretty much just like any other draftnik when it comes to other players.  

 

Yes, there may not be much as big a difference between 5 and 25 in this draft, but there is a giant difference between 37 and 57, 71 and 91 and so forth, seeing as how this is regarded as one of the most deep drafts in the first few rounds in years.  Not the elite talent, but it's being viewed at as one of the deepest drafts in memory. 

 

Not sure how calling Werner, Moore and Mingo the top three DEs is really going against the grain, when that's been a pretty solid consensus for a while, even though according to Daniel Jeremiah there aren't any scouts who consider Moore a first rounder.  

 

Interesting take all together, but we shall see.


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#15 #27TheDominator

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Posted 20 February 2013 - 12:12 AM

I love Mayock, he's my best of the talking heads, but his analysis of defensive backs is the only thing worth taking as gold; he's pretty much just like any other draftnik when it comes to other players.  

 

Yes, there may not be much as big a difference between 5 and 25 in this draft, but there is a giant difference between 37 and 57, 71 and 91 and so forth, seeing as how this is regarded as one of the most deep drafts in the first few rounds in years.  Not the elite talent, but it's being viewed at as one of the deepest drafts in memory. 

 

Not sure how calling Werner, Moore and Mingo the top three DEs is really going against the grain, when that's been a pretty solid consensus for a while, even though according to Daniel Jeremiah there aren't any scouts who consider Moore a first rounder.  

 

Interesting take all together, but we shall see.

 

 

I think they meant he went against the grain, by not having any of them in the top 10 and Mingo at the bottom of the round.


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#16 SenorGato

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Posted 20 February 2013 - 01:45 AM

Not one Robert Ayers in sight. The only reason this will get parroted around is because there's only one QB who even might go in the top 10. 


Edited by SenorGato, 20 February 2013 - 01:46 AM.

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#17 Sperm Edwards

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Posted 20 February 2013 - 06:58 AM

I don't think this is nearly the issue it would have previously been given the new rookie contract structure.  In the old days you would be royally screwed but now who really cares?  If there's someone you really like who you would normally have graded lower in the round, you can try to trade down, but if that doesn't work out?  Who cares, take the guy you like the best.  There's no more issue of getting saddled with these humongous contracts that you have no idea what you are going to do with if the player doesn't work out.  Take who you have graded as the BPA and move on.  These days, all the higher pick really does is help decrease the odds that someone will swoop in and take your guy, while also potentially giving you the chance to move down and accumulate picks.

 

I was about to write something similar to this.

 

#9 this year may not be as good as #9 last year or next year.  But it's hardly a bad thing to own a top 10 pick.  If we owned a top 10 pick and the (more or less slotted) rookie contract said that the #9 pick gets a guaranteed $15M ($25M for a top 5-6, $30M+ for a top 3) then I would agree that picking at the top is a bad thing.  In bad draft years (when San Fran owned the #1 pick in '05 is a great example), it's between hard and impossible to find a trade partner to trade down, and for PR reasons you can't just let 5-10 picks go by so you select at #12-15 instead of #1-6 to avoid massive guaranteed money to an unknown.

 

But even if picking at #9 isn't better than picking at #25 as far as the talent pool, it's still hardly a "bad" thing.  Plus (as BroadwayJoe12 alluded to) owning pick #9 this year means our 2nd pick is #39 as opposed to a pick in the mid-50s, and so on through the draft.

 

It's only "bad" if, as in my '05 San Fran example, you're forced to give your top draft pick a contract with $24M guaranteed back when the salary cap was only at $85.5M.  But now? I don't agree.  Teams might still move up because the only cost associated is in other picks, not other picks plus 2-4x the guaranteed money.  Or to put it more bluntly, a bad top 10 pick is cuttable very quickly now and it wasn't in the past.  

 

I get what he's saying, but it's not at all bad to have a top 10 pick this year.


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#18 HessStation

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Posted 20 February 2013 - 07:32 AM

Not one Robert Ayers in sight. The only reason this will get parroted around is because there's only one QB who even might go in the top 10.


are you seriously trying to take a dig at Mayock for getting Ayers wrong?
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#19 HessStation

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Posted 20 February 2013 - 07:46 AM

Here's his full list fwiw.

 

Quarterback
1. Geno Smith, West Virginia
2. Matt Barkley, USC
3. Mike Glennon, NC State
4. Ryan Nassib, Syracuse
5. Landry Jones, Oklahoma

Running Back
1. Eddie Lacy, Alabama
2. Montee Ball, Wisconsin
3. Andre Ellington, Clemson
4. Giovani Bernard, North Carolina
5. Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina

Wide Receiver
1. Cordarrelle Patterson, Tennessee
2. Keenan Allen, Cal
3. Terrance Williams, Baylor
4. Tavon Austin, West Virginia
5. Quinton Patton, Louisiana Tech

Tight End
1. Tyler Eifert, Notre Dame
2. Zach Ertz, Stanford
3. Gavin Escobar, San Diego State
4. Travis Kelce, Cincinnati
5. Jordan Reed, Florida

Center
1. Travis Frederick, Wisconsin
2. Brian Schwenke, Cal
3. Barrett Jones, Alabama
4. Khaled Holmes, USC
5. Braxston Cave, Notre Dame

Guard
1. Chance Warmack, Alabama
2. Jonathan Cooper, North Carolina
3. Larry Warford, Kentucky
4. Kyle Long, Oregon
5. Brian Winters, Kent State

Tackle
1. Luke Joeckel, Texas A&M
2. Eric Fisher, Central Michigan
3. Lane Johnson, Oklahoma
4. D.J. Fluker, Alabama
T-5. Menelik Watson, Florida State
T-5. Justin Pugh, Syracuse

Defensive End
1. Bjoern Werner, Florida State
2. Damontre Moore, Texas A&M
3. Ezekiel Ansah, BYU
4. Sam Montgomery, LSU
T-5. Datone Jones, UCLA
T-5. Margus Hunt, SMU

Defensive Tackle
1. Sharrif Floyd, Florida
2. Star Lotulelei, Utah
3. Sheldon Richardson, Missouri
4. Sylvester Williams, North Carolina
T-5. Kawann Short, Purdue
T-5. Johnathan Hankins, Ohio State

Outside linebacker
1. Dion Jordan, Oregon
2. Jarvis Jones, Georgia
3. Khaseem Greene, Rutgers
4. Barkevious Mingo, LSU
5. Arthur Brown, Kansas State

Inside linebacker
1. Alec Ogletree, Georgia
2. Manti Te'o, Notre Dame
3. Kevin Minter, LSU
4. Kevin Reddick, North Carolina
5. Kiko Alonso, Oregon

Cornerback
1. Dee Milliner, Alabama
2. Xavier Rhodes, Florida State
3. Johnthan Banks, Mississippi State
4. Desmond Trufant, Washington
5. Jordan Poyer, Oregon State

Safety
1. Kenny Vaccaro, Texas
2. Matt Elam, Florida
3. Johnathan Cyprien, Florida International
4. Eric Reid, LSU
5. Zeke Motta, Notre Dame


Edited by HessStation, 20 February 2013 - 07:46 AM.

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#20 JiF

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Posted 20 February 2013 - 08:15 AM

I was about to write something similar to this.

 

#9 this year may not be as good as #9 last year or next year.  But it's hardly a bad thing to own a top 10 pick.  If we owned a top 10 pick and the (more or less slotted) rookie contract said that the #9 pick gets a guaranteed $15M ($25M for a top 5-6, $30M+ for a top 3) then I would agree that picking at the top is a bad thing.  In bad draft years (when San Fran owned the #1 pick in '05 is a great example), it's between hard and impossible to find a trade partner to trade down, and for PR reasons you can't just let 5-10 picks go by so you select at #12-15 instead of #1-6 to avoid massive guaranteed money to an unknown.

 

But even if picking at #9 isn't better than picking at #25 as far as the talent pool, it's still hardly a "bad" thing.  Plus (as BroadwayJoe12 alluded to) owning pick #9 this year means our 2nd pick is #39 as opposed to a pick in the mid-50s, and so on through the draft.

 

It's only "bad" if, as in my '05 San Fran example, you're forced to give your top draft pick a contract with $24M guaranteed back when the salary cap was only at $85.5M.  But now? I don't agree.  Teams might still move up because the only cost associated is in other picks, not other picks plus 2-4x the guaranteed money.  Or to put it more bluntly, a bad top 10 pick is cuttable very quickly now and it wasn't in the past.  

 

I get what he's saying, but it's not at all bad to have a top 10 pick this year.

 

I'm pretty sure he just means, its a bad year to own a top 10 pick if you're looking for the "superstar" that you can usually find in the top 10.  Obviously the new CBA helps alleviate the pain if you miss, so its not all bad but there just isnt a clear cut stud in this draft.  There's a bunch of really solid talent but few cant miss prospects (maybe some of the OL and DL prospects, but not many). 

 

I do like the depth of this draft.  I really dont think there's going to be huge drop off in talent/value from 9 to 41 when the Jets pick again.  For that, having a top 10 pick is great because you're in that range in the 2nd round where you're essentially getting a similar prospect in the 2nd as you did in the top 10.  That might be a little bit of a stretch but I dont think its a big one.  I just dont see that big of a difference between the players going early in the 2nd compared to 1st round talent and maybe top 10, in this draft.


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#21 Sperm Edwards

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Posted 20 February 2013 - 08:17 AM

I'm pretty sure he just means, its a bad year to own a top 10 pick if you're looking for the "superstar" that you can usually find in the top 10.  Obviously the new CBA helps alleviate the pain if you miss, so its not all bad but there just isnt a clear cut stud in this draft.  There's a bunch of really solid talent but few cant miss prospects (maybe some of the OL and DL prospects, but not many). 

 

I do like the depth of this draft.  I really dont think there's going to be huge drop off in talent/value from 9 to 41 when the Jets pick again.  For that, having a top 10 pick is great because you're in that range in the 2nd round where you're essentially getting a similar prospect in the 2nd as you did in the top 10.  That might be a little bit of a stretch but I dont think its a big one.  I just dont see that big of a difference between the players going early in the 2nd compared to 1st round talent and maybe top 10, in this draft.

 

It's not "bad" if you own a top 10 pick.  It just isn't - or doesn't seem to be - as good to have one as it has been or will be in other years.

 

Whatever.  This week in 2008 Joe Flacco was a 3rd round prospect who might sneak into round 2.  He was ultimately drafted #18 overall.  Dozens more examples of the same.


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#22 dbatesman

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Posted 20 February 2013 - 08:22 AM

are you seriously trying to take a dig at Mayock for getting Ayers wrong?


Why not? I do it all the time.
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#23 #27TheDominator

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Posted 20 February 2013 - 08:43 AM

Here's his full list fwiw.

 

Quarterback
1. Geno Smith, West Virginia
2. Matt Barkley, USC
3. Mike Glennon, NC State
4. Ryan Nassib, Syracuse
5. Landry Jones, Oklahoma

Running Back
1. Eddie Lacy, Alabama
2. Montee Ball, Wisconsin
3. Andre Ellington, Clemson
4. Giovani Bernard, North Carolina
5. Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina

Wide Receiver
1. Cordarrelle Patterson, Tennessee
2. Keenan Allen, Cal
3. Terrance Williams, Baylor
4. Tavon Austin, West Virginia
5. Quinton Patton, Louisiana Tech

Tight End
1. Tyler Eifert, Notre Dame
2. Zach Ertz, Stanford
3. Gavin Escobar, San Diego State
4. Travis Kelce, Cincinnati
5. Jordan Reed, Florida

Center
1. Travis Frederick, Wisconsin
2. Brian Schwenke, Cal
3. Barrett Jones, Alabama
4. Khaled Holmes, USC
5. Braxston Cave, Notre Dame

Guard
1. Chance Warmack, Alabama
2. Jonathan Cooper, North Carolina
3. Larry Warford, Kentucky
4. Kyle Long, Oregon
5. Brian Winters, Kent State

Tackle
1. Luke Joeckel, Texas A&M
2. Eric Fisher, Central Michigan
3. Lane Johnson, Oklahoma
4. D.J. Fluker, Alabama
T-5. Menelik Watson, Florida State
T-5. Justin Pugh, Syracuse

Defensive End
1. Bjoern Werner, Florida State
2. Damontre Moore, Texas A&M
3. Ezekiel Ansah, BYU
4. Sam Montgomery, LSU
T-5. Datone Jones, UCLA
T-5. Margus Hunt, SMU

Defensive Tackle
1. Sharrif Floyd, Florida
2. Star Lotulelei, Utah
3. Sheldon Richardson, Missouri
4. Sylvester Williams, North Carolina
T-5. Kawann Short, Purdue
T-5. Johnathan Hankins, Ohio State

Outside linebacker
1. Dion Jordan, Oregon
2. Jarvis Jones, Georgia
3. Khaseem Greene, Rutgers
4. Barkevious Mingo, LSU
5. Arthur Brown, Kansas State

Inside linebacker
1. Alec Ogletree, Georgia
2. Manti Te'o, Notre Dame
3. Kevin Minter, LSU
4. Kevin Reddick, North Carolina
5. Kiko Alonso, Oregon

Cornerback
1. Dee Milliner, Alabama
2. Xavier Rhodes, Florida State
3. Johnthan Banks, Mississippi State
4. Desmond Trufant, Washington
5. Jordan Poyer, Oregon State

Safety
1. Kenny Vaccaro, Texas
2. Matt Elam, Florida
3. Johnathan Cyprien, Florida International
4. Eric Reid, LSU
5. Zeke Motta, Notre Dame

 

i look at this list and I don't see how he can say that so many of these guys "don't have a first round grade."  Somebody has to go in the first. Those names amount to basically 2 rounds worth of picks.  Yet I consistently see people expecting to draft guys like Kelce in the 4th.  You aren't going to have your pick of these guys in the 3rd or 4th.  You'll be lucky in 5-10 of these guys are even on the board when we pick at 3.  

 

The same thing with Matt Moore as a FA.  He seems like a good idea because people think he'll come cheap.  When 5-6 teams get that idea the price of cheap keeps going up and suddenly he isn't so reasonably priced anymore.  


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#24 HessStation

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Posted 20 February 2013 - 09:00 AM

Why not? I do it all the time.

 

I just think it's unfair to think anyone can get it right all the time when most NFL teams only get it right about half, if lucky. I think Mayock does a great job, most of the NFL Net guys do imo. Charles Davis probably being my favorite. Playing with the draft is no different then playing around in the stock market. It's fun for some people. It's not an exact science. I can respect guys who work hard at it, as opposed to a guy like Kiper who was notoriously known as a guy who didn't really watch the tape but used his connections (other peoples opinions) to project prospects...at least that was his thing a few years back, prior to the draft becoming such a big deal, when he was the only guy in town. Might be different now.  But I dunno, I like Mayock, he seems to get it right more than he's wrong. I can't give anything concrete besides I'm one of those losers who buys every magazine, looks at all the sites and watches a lot of college football. Mayock>most guys out there. 


Edited by HessStation, 20 February 2013 - 09:14 AM.

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#25 SouthernJet

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Posted 20 February 2013 - 09:10 AM

The thing you have to always remember when it comes to 'rankings' is that they are generic and non scheme oriented.

A player ranked 2nd of 5 LBs for example may not be as good a fit  as the 5th rated LB for a certain teams scheme. 


Edited by SouthernJet, 20 February 2013 - 09:11 AM.

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